Monday Should Be Really Interesting – And Other Random Stuff


My grandpa, and later my father, used to say something at particular moments that generally annoyed me but turned out to be entirely accurate, much to my youthful angst… “Well, hang around a one-legged group long enough, and you’re eventually going to end up limping.”

Yup, I learned to hate that lesson because the truth of it was always annoying.

This is perhaps the first time in memory when I look forward to Donald J Trump getting out of the Mar-a-Lago bubble and back to Washington DC.  Good grief, just typing that I can’t believe I’m saying it.  Here’s why:

Having followed and written about the optimal solution approach within the Trump Doctrine, a process that assigns responsibility to regional actors, then exits while providing support but not direct involvement [the delegation metric of high-support/low-direction], perhaps that is unfolding again in the background.  However, it seems like Trump is accepting the annoying Iran monkey problem on our behalf. [REF: How to Make The Monkey Jump]

To be clear in my personal position, charity begins at home.  (1) I don’t want conflict with Iran, nor do I really care about their internal political struggles; most of my day-to-day contacts feel the same. (2) At the same time, yes, I can imagine a scenario where Venezuela represents a threat to our continental objectives and national security, but would prefer to see them isolated from the outside.  Embargo them, stuff them inside an economic confinement zone (if needed), tell them why, then let the internal mess work itself out; most of my day-to-day contacts seem to feel the same.

Granting President Trump the long view of support; I mean, we don’t know what he is aware of; I sure hope all of this Iran stuff has a direct connection to American strategic interests.

Simultaneously, I can certainly see where deconflicting the USA, vis-a-vis Ukraine (literally London and the EU) from friction with Russia, has a strategic interest and factual bearing on the dollar-based trade system.  Attention on the Ukraine vs Russia stuff does have direct, albeit complicated outcomes attached to the economic standing of the average American.  Iran less so.

Pictured Center: a one-legged man.

Pictured Center: a one-legged man.

Looking at it from a geopolitically logical approach…. President Trump and Marco Rubio need Syria to remain stable.

Secretary Rubio has explained this aspect very well when he summarized the reason for President Trump lifting the sanctions against Syria.  I get that part.  But is this “locked and loaded” simply a brush back pitch against Iran to stop them from disrupting Trump’s Gaza objective.  Maybe so, it does make sense; thus, we extend the benefit of doubt.

If Syria destabilizes the tenuous Israel/Gaza stuff gets more complicated.  Iran can destabilize Syria. Therefore, putting pressure on the Iranian regime while simultaneously telling Israel to cool it over their Turkish opposition to the Gaza assist again does make sense.

Benjamin Netanyahu dislikes Recep Erdogan immensely and doesn’t trust him an inch.  I get that part also, but Turkey is a weird place held together by Erdogan’s very specific brand of Muslim Brotherhood patriotism.

In very direct ways keeping Syria stable helps Turkey and by extension the EU.

If Syria erupts, the refugee exodus heads north, and cunning Erdogan – a tenuous NATO member  seemingly never giving up on his Ottoman Empire rebuild – will play his “I can only absorb so much” card, thereby opening the gates for more authentic Islam travel further north into Europe.

[Our solid contacts in Istanbul have confirmed around 5 million Syrians have repatriated since President Ahmed al-Sharaa started his agenda to stabilize the region. The busy former al-Qaeda guy, 43-years-old, is also a bridge between Trump and Putin. So, there’s that.]

Keeping Syria stable also permits Trump’s Arab state coalition to deal with Gaza/Hamas in a constructive way. Trump told Netanyahu this publicly during the recent visit, essentially rebuking Israel’s justification for more IDF military action in Gaza.  Again, President Trump is dancing through the minefield here with the long game to get us the f**k out of it, while Netanyahu is hugging Trump to pull the USA deeper into it.

If you understand the Iranian tentacles that still remain in Syria (see recent ISIS attacks), confronting Iran makes Israel very happy; however, it’s not Netanyahu’s happiness that stands behind Trump’s motive for the confrontation.  Ultimately, the motive is Syria’s stability, Turkish Gaza support and the Arab money/engagement needed for the Mideast mess.

If our suspicions are correct, we should see Team Trump leaning toward Recep Erdogan, toward the Arab coalition and toward Syria at the same time he is managing Iran, managing Israel and managing a U.S. congress.

If the Ayatollahs are busy tamping down street protests, they are less likely to be poking Syria.

All of that is giving President Trump the maximum benefit of the doubt combined with the application of common sense.

♦ Meanwhile inside Russia, you might not hear about it from western media, but Ukraine and NATO are striking non-military targets, civilian areas, throughout Russia currently focusing heavy drone fire at Kazan, Russia’s third largest city.

STATE DEPT: “There have been drone attacks and explosions near the border with Ukraine, and in Moscow, Kazan, St. Petersburg, and other large cities.

Russian citizens are now very familiar with the sound of air raid sirens as increased drone attacks from Ukraine are extending into Russia.  This noticeable increase in activity is happening in combination with U.S/Ukraine strategic discussions on an EU created ceasefire agreement.

The Rubio state department has now updated the Russia advisory summary warning all Americans of the danger in traveling throughout Russia.

The update is also timed with the increased drone attacks into Russia’s main population centers and is likely due to concern that Americans would be street targets for angered Russian nationalists.

If President Trump walks away from the EU/Ukraine peace agreement construct, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin will likely increase retaliatory attacks against Ukraine by significant levels.   One of my good contacts shared, “if Trump walks away, Kiev will now be leveled.”

Apparently, despite the incoming fire increasing, Putin is holding back his response to give Trump room to operate, while still carefully managing the Kremlin politics and striking into Ukraine to appease those in Russian government who want the full weight of the Russian military to come down hard on Zelenskyy.

…”If Trump walks away, Kiev will now be leveled.” 

President Trump Discusses Capture of Maduro During First Interview


Posted originally on CTH on January 3, 2026 | Sundance

Speaking to Fox News this morning, President Trump answers questions about the Delta Force operation that captured Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro.

Maduro is currently aboard the USS Iwo Jima.  WATCH:

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Anonymous U.S. Officials Say Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin with Drone Attack – Russian Officials Say They Have Drone Flight Plan From Navigation Unit


Posted originally on CTH on January 1, 2026 | Sundance |

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Ukraine did not target the personal residence of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, “according to U.S. officials.”   However, Russia captured one of the drones intact and have said they were able to “extract a file containing a flight plan from the navigation unit” which they plan to share with the Trump administration through established channels. {LINK}

WSJ – WASHINGTON—U.S. national-security officials said Wednesday that Ukraine didn’t target Russian President Vladimir Putin or one of his residences in an alleged drone operation, challenging Moscow’s assertion that Kyiv sought to kill the Russian leader.

That conclusion is supported by a Central Intelligence Agency assessment that found no attempted attack against Putin had occurred, according to a U.S. official briefed on the intelligence. The CIA declined to comment.

The U.S. found that Ukraine had been seeking to strike a military target located in the same region as Putin’s country residence but not close by, the official said.  (read more)

Who are we going to believe, Russian “special service” operations or anonymous “U.S. Intelligence Officials”?

Unfortunately, this question is no longer easy to answer given the history of the U.S. Intelligence Community, and yes, that includes the current embedded IC officials within the National Security Council, DNI and CIA even with Marco Rubio, Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe in position.

I would be very surprised if the U.S. Intelligence Community would be honest with President Trump on this issue if, and that is a big “if”, they even factually had any specific intelligence about it. [This WSJ narrative could be fake news]

Again, CTH will also assert the likelihood that Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely didn’t carry out the attack; everything about the timing of it during his meeting with President Trump just doesn’t fit.  Instead, it is more likely British intelligence, specifically MI6 carried out the attack, timed specifically for the Trump/Zelenskyy meeting.

In context, there have been several attacks against Russia timed with negotiations.  CTH has noted that each instance of closer agreement during Russia/Ukraine negotiations (Turkey) or U.S/Ukraine negotiations (Turkey and Paris) there have been attacks into Russia that seemed to carry a motive from an external third party.

U.S. media have said the attack on Putin may be a lie; however, with physical evidence from the defense operation, it is less likely Russia just made up the attack.  At this moment in the conflict, Putin doesn’t need domestic propaganda.

CONTEXT: British intelligence previously confirmed their participation in the successful Ukraine drone attack against long-range Russian bombers.  That operation, highly controversial at the time, was previously confirmed by President Trump saying the U.S. was not informed in advance.

The “coalition of the willing” has also expanded.  Outside the Ukraine regime, the current group making up the “coalition of the willing” includes: the U.K, France, Germany, Canada and Australia.  It is worth noting the additions are part of the British commonwealth (Canada, Australia).

Most observers note that Ukraine President Zelenskyy is not an independent actor in the warfare decisions as carried out from within Ukraine itself. In fact, British intelligence has now replaced U.S. intelligence for providing the majority of the satellite guidance systems, targeted systems and missile operations.  German and French intelligence have been closely coordinating with the U.K. on behalf of European Union stakeholders.

Europe, specifically the British MI6 intelligence service, have recently espoused their #1 priority is to defeat Russia using the proxy that Ukraine provides.

The newly appointed head of MI6, Blaise Metreweli (pictured right), formerly known by her position as “Q”, is literally the granddaughter of factual Ukraine Nazi, Constantine Dobrowolski.

As head of MI6, Metreweli has specifically stated the U.K wants war with Russia. Metreweli’s entire family has Ukraine roots.

So, with full context applied it is entirely likely that both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are not lying.  Putin was attacked, but Ukraine -as defined as Zelenskyy- didn’t do it.

The most likely scenario is that U.K intelligence elements inside Ukraine again used the opportunity of the Trump-Zelenskyy negotiation meeting to carry out the attack against Russian President Putin.  The motive is obvious.

Beyond the ideological component, the economies of the U.K/EU are now increasingly dependent on their defense spending as was recognized with the severe contraction of the German economy in almost all sectors except those supported by defense spending.

An end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict is against the interests of the “coalition of the willing.”   Additionally, an ancillary motive for both the U.K and U.S. group who support the EU effort is to keep President Trump bogged down.

I still strongly suspect the British did it, and the CIA doesn’t factually have any concrete intelligence to prove or dismiss this strongest motivational likelihood.

[MORE CONTEXT IN VIDEO]

Jack Smith’s Twisted, Machiavellian Lawfare Mindset Paints a Dystopian Future for the USA if Not Dispatched Quickly


Posted originally on CTH on January 1, 2026 | Sundance |

I don’t care if you support Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis or the Easter Bunny, any American who doesn’t realize the tenuous future of our union, after reviewing the information within this testimony, is going to forever live in a collapsed dystopian nightmare, if they vote for any political representative who supports it.

The House Judiciary Committee has released the [VIDEO] and [TRANSCRIPT] of special prosecutor Jack Smith’s deposition.  What is outlined within it is alarming in the extreme.  I strongly urge anyone with any platform to review the details and quickly highlight the content therein.  There is no time to waste.

[TRANSCRIPT HERE]

Jack Smith appeared before the committee with three personal lawyers to support him.  The content of the deposition is chilling in the extreme.  While many will focus on the granular details of the testimony, I wish to highlight one of the more alarming aspects to the bigger picture.

The predicate for Jack Smith to prosecute President Trump for his efforts to “interfere in the 2020 election”, and thereby “challenge all democratic norms”, essentially boils down to Jack Smith accusing President Trump of participating in a fraud when he challenged the outcome of the 2020 election.

To get beyond President Trump’s first amendment right to free speech, Jack Smith claims Trump knowingly understood that Joe Biden had won the election; President Trump was told by senior Republican advisors that Biden had legitimately won the 2020 election; President Trump rejected the reality of the “truthful information” presented to him, and instead chose to launch a psychological operation against the American people, i.e. “fraud.”

It is the charge of “fraud” which underpins the entirety of the case against Donald Trump, as pursued by Jack Smith.   The charge itself is predicated on definitions of what constitutes truthful information, and within that subset of predicate you begin to realize just how important it is to professional leftists that they control information.

The case was dropped after the results of the November 2024 election, won by President Trump.  However, if President Trump had not won that election, the prosecution would have continued.

Jack Smith notes in his testimony, in the most Machiavellian way, that his primary prosecution approach was to present “Republican” witnesses like Mike Pence, who Smith cunningly said he could not discuss as he was restricted from revealing grand jury testimony.

Smith was prepared to present witness testimony from Pence and other political “Republicans” who told President Trump that Joe Biden had legitimately won the election, and Trump needed to concede.  This testimony then forms the baseline for the definition of “truthful information” that Trump rejected out of a malice mindset to continue clinging to power.

In essence, Smith defines what is “truth” (Biden won), then outlines how that truthful information was delivered and how President Trump dismissed it. Therefore, President Trump’s “mens-rea”, or state of mind, was one of promoting an intentional falsehood.  According to the Lawfare approach selected by Smith, this mindset is the predicate that blocks President Trump from using his First Amendment right to speech as a defense.

Intentional fraud is not allowed under the protections of “free speech.”   Jack Smith wanted to prove that President Trump was engaged in intentional fraud, and wanted to prove his mindset therein through the use of Republican political voices who delivered information to President Trump.

Jack Smith sought to define “truth”, and then counter the free speech defense by mob agreement on what constitutes the “truth.”  Under this predicate, President Trump was being prosecuted for a thought crime, and Jack Smith sought to legally prove he knew his thoughts.

The only way Jack Smith could prove fraud would be to prove that President Trump believed the information about Joe Biden winning the election.  Smith sought to prove Trump’s belief by presenting Republican voices who told President Trump he lost.

Whether you like or dislike President Trump, the issue here is alarming when contemplated.

A man tells you a chicken is a frog, you laugh.  The man then brings 15 of your family members to tell you a chicken is a frog. You reject the absurdity of the premise, but the man brings forth hundreds more people to tell you the chicken is a frog, and if you do not accept that Chickens are Frogs, you will be defined as mentally impaired, institutionalized and become a ward of the state.

[Insert any similar metaphor needed, including “what is a woman.”]

When we consider the current state of sociological, societal or government manipulation of information, and/or the need for government to control information (mis-dis-mal-information) as an overlay, you can quickly see where this type of legal predicate can take us.  Bizarro world becomes a dystopian nightmare.

Yes, it is also clear that Leftists, inside that closed-door committee hearing, are intending to impeach President Trump on these grounds if they successfully win the 2026 midterm election.  However, that is not the critical takeaway from this deposition.   Instead, the critical takeaway is how the Lawfare construct can be twisted and manipulated to create the legal means to the leftist ends.

Stop the Division! 

We cannot allow these communist, Marxist and leftist-minded control agents get back into power.

It’s not about Trump.  It’s about us.

President Trump and First Lady Melania Attend New Year Celebration in Mar-a-Lago


Posted originally on CTH on January 1, 2026 | Sundance

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attend the annual New Year celebration at the Trump Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Melania Trump looked spectacular in silver.

President Trump answered a few quick questions saying, ‘Peace. Peace on earth,’ when answering a question about his New Year’s resolution. When asked whether he would send U.S. troops to Ukraine as part of a security guarantee, something Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday was on the table, President Trump shrugged it off.

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Zelenskyy Outlines His 20-Point Terms During Fox News Interview


Posted originally on CTH on December 30, 2025 | Sundance 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears on Fox News for an interview with Bret Baier.  Within the interview Zelenskyy gives some context and details to the 20-point plan organized between him and the EU Leaders, currently being reviewed and modified by President Trump, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner.

The two remaining issues as described by Zelenskyy are the (1) security guarantees and (2) the territorial issue, Donbas control.

(1) Within the security guarantee proposal there are troubling signs.  Zelenskyy describes it as a bilateral agreement between the USA and Ukraine, with similar constructs to the NATO alignment.  A non-NATO pact between the U.S. and Ukraine that commits us to his defense if Russia would advance another attack.  A 15-year guarantee committed in U.S. law through the U.S. House and Senate. This sounds troubling.

(2) On the territorial issue, regional control of the Donbas, Zelenskyy appears to be willing to cede territory but only under very limited circumstances.  Zelenskyy wants a demilitarized zone under the term “a free economic zone” with specific rules.

Zelenskyy admits Ukraine cannot win the conflict against Russia without the United States involvement.  Essentially without America, Russia would own the skies and be able to crush the Ukrainian army. WATCH:

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President Trump Responds to the 91-Drone Attack on Putin’s Residence in Novgorod region


Posted originally on CTH on December 30, 2025 | Sundance

During an impromptu press availability beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump responded to a question about a drone attack against the personal residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

President Trump noted that he was informed of the attack by President Putin during an early Monday phone call between the two leaders.

According to Russian media, confirmed by Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Putin’s presidential residence in the Novgorod region, more than 400 kilometers (249 miles) northwest of Moscow, was targeted by 91 drones. Russia has vowed retaliation saying, “targets had already been selected.” President Trump’s response is prompted below:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has denied the accusation that Ukraine carried out this particular attack.  The attack took place while Zelenskyy was in Florida meeting with President Trump.

In context, there have been several attacks against Russia timed with negotiations.  CTH has noted that each instance of closer agreement during Russia/Ukraine negotiations (Turkey) or U.S/Ukraine negotiations (Turkey and Paris) there have been attacks into Russia that seemed to carry a motive from an external third party.

U.S. media have said the attack on Putin may be a lie; however, with physical evidence from the defense operation, it is less likely Russia just made up the attack.  At this moment in the conflict, Putin doesn’t need domestic propaganda.

CONTEXT: British intelligence previously confirmed their participation in the successful Ukraine drone attack against long-range Russian bombers.  That operation, highly controversial at the time, was previously confirmed by President Trump saying the U.S. was not informed in advance.

The “coalition of the willing” has also expanded.  Outside the Ukraine regime, the current group making up the “coalition of the willing” includes: the U.K, France, Germany, Canada and Australia.  It is worth noting the additions are all part of the British commonwealth (U.K, Canada, Australia).

Most observers note that Ukraine President Zelenskyy is not an independent actor in the warfare decisions as carried out from within Ukraine itself. In fact, British intelligence has now replaced U.S. intelligence for providing the majority of the satellite guidance systems, targeted systems and missile operations.  German and French intelligence have been closely coordinating with the U.K. on behalf of European Union stakeholders.

Europe, specifically the British MI6 intelligence service, have recently espoused their #1 priority is to defeat Russia using the proxy that Ukraine provides.

So, with full context applied it is entirely likely that both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are not lying.

The most likely scenario is that U.K elements inside Ukraine again used the opportunity of the Trump-Zelenskyy negotiation meeting to carry out the attack against Russian President Putin.  The motive is obvious.

Beyond the ideological component, the economies of the U.K/EU are now increasingly dependent on their defense spending as was recognized yesterday with the severe contraction of the German economy in almost all sectors except those supported by defense spending.

An end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict is against the interests of the “coalition of the willing.”   Additionally, an ancillary motive for the U.S. group who support the EU effort is to keep President Trump bogged down.

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s campaign to end the war in Ukraine faced new complications on Monday when Vladimir Putin said he would revise his country’s negotiating position after the Russian leader claimed Ukrainian drones targeted his residence.

Putin told Trump of his decision in a call Monday, according to the Kremlin, even as Kyiv cast the Russian allegations as a fabrication aimed at derailing the peace process.

Trump addressed the dispute while speaking to reporters in Florida, saying that Putin had told him about the purported attack during their discussion. The US president, seeming to side with Putin, said he was “very angry.”

“It’s one thing to be offensive, because they’re offensive,” Trump told reporters in Florida. “It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has dismissed the Russian claims as a “new lie” and warned that Moscow could be using it as an excuse to prepare an attack on government buildings in Kyiv.

Putin said Moscow intends to work closely with the US on peace efforts but would reconsider a number of previously reached agreements, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told Russian newswires. Ushakov added that Putin assured Trump that Moscow would look to continue working with American partners to achieve peace and that the two leaders agreed to maintain their dialogue. (more)

I suspect the British did it.

Nervous Netanyahu and President Trump Hold Press Availability: …”If you don’t have Trump”…


Posted originally on CTH on December 29, 2025 | Sundance

The sense you get from reviewing the interactions is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is nervous in his need to maintain very close support from U.S. President Donald Trump.  When we review the interaction, we see Netanyahu’s praise of President Trump through a prism of tenuous dependency.

Netanyahu needs to retain a close and favorable position of influence; yet there is something in the engagement that seems to indicate an unease, a nervousness visible within the Prime Minister of Israel.

The moment at 10:48 is important, “Someone said in the room: if you don’t have Trump“… and the U.S. President strategically decided to let that thought trail off without finishing.  However, in context it was very clear what would have come next if Trump didn’t restrain himself.  “Someone said in the room: if you don’t have Trump”… you don’t have Netanyahu, was likely the end of that thought, and Trump isn’t wrong.  Benjamin Netanyahu’s body language, facial expressions and overall demeanor imply agreement.

Bibi knows the unspoken words are accurate, so does everyone who supports Bibi – especially those pro-Israel voices inside the USA.  Also, within that geopolitical dynamic, you will find President Trump’s leverage and an understanding of the behavior for those who support Netanyahu’s government.  WATCH:

The non-pretending review of Netanyahu’s purpose for the visit, is to get additional support from President Trump for more military action against Iran.  President Trump knows the intents and motives behind the shaped information from Netanyahu, the Israeli government and U.S. donors and voices.

President Trump emphasized strongly how the Arab coalition supports the elimination of Hamas as a terrorist threat, not just the United States.  This emphasis on retaining the original peace agreement continues to pull the narrative away from the U.S. having to give support to ongoing Israel military action in Gaza.   “If Hamas doesn’t disarm voluntarily” the Arab countries will disarm them President Trump suggested.

Benjamin Netanyahu is not going to be able to pull the Trump administration into military engagement in Iran.  That part is clear from the tone and presentation of Netanyahu as well as the space between the words of Trump.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Gives Strong Recap of President Trump Trade Policy


Posted originally CTH on December 29, 2025 | Sundance

Outlining why there literally is not enough time for a lengthy dual-track legislative trade policy to be constructed, Ambassador Jamieson Greer gives a great encapsulation of the urgency behind the trade policies, tariffs and negotiations between the U.S. and trade partners.

If President Donald Trump did not win in 2024, another four years of parasitic trade policy would have crossed the Rubicon of U.S. manufacturing recovery.   The urgently applied tariff strategy gave the administration breathing room to reestablish domestic economic growth.  USTR Greer and President Trump are now fine-tuning the tariffs country by country, sector by sector, to achieve ultimate economic benefit.  WATCH:

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Memos of Conversations Between George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin Are Released


BUMPED Due to Importance:

Posted originally on CTH on December 29, 2025 | Sundance |

Following a series of FOIA lawsuits, memos from conversations between Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and former US President George W. Bush have been released online by the National Security Archive. [Original Source Here]

I know it’s Christmas, but bookmark or review as time allows, because the content is very interesting and very important. As early as 2001 and 2008, President Putin clearly told President Bush of his opposition to Ukraine’s accession to NATO, along with other key positions.

Despite what popular media might say, these are NOT full transcripts. Rather, they are memos containing quotes from both leaders as they discuss geopolitical relations between the U.S. and Russia. [SOURCE HERE]

♦ June 16, 2001 – Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Restricted Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. [LINK HERE] In this first personal meeting at the Brno Castle in Slovenia Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush express respect for each other and desire to establish a close relationship. Putin tells Bush about his religious beliefs and the story of his cross that survived a fire at his dacha. In a short one-on-one meeting they cover all the most important issues of U.S.-Russian relations such as strategic stability, ABM treaty, nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea and NATO expansion. Bush tells his Russian counterpart that he believes Russia is part of the West and not an enemy, but raises a question about Putin’s treatment of a free press and military actions in Chechnya. Putin raises a question of Russian NATO membership and says Russia feels “left out.” [READ MEMO HERE]

♦ September 16, 2005: Document 2 – Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation: [LINK HERE] Putin meets the U.S. President in the Oval Office for a plenary that covers mainly issues of nonproliferation and U.S.-Russian cooperation on Iran and North Korea. The conversation shows impressively close positions on Iran and North Korea, with Putin presenting himself as an eager and supportive partner. Bush tells Putin “we don’t need a lot of religious nuts with nuclear weapons” referring to Iran. Putin said that Ukraine’s accession to NATO would, in the long term, create a field of conflict between Russia and the United States, adding that internal divisions within Ukraine could lead to its fragmentation. [READ MEMO HERE]

♦ April 6, 2008 – Document 3: Memorandum of Conversation. Subject: Meeting with President of Russia [LINK HERE] This is the last meeting between Putin and Bush, taking place at Putin’s residence in Bocharov Ruchei in Sochi on the Black Sea. The tone is strikingly different from the early conversations, where both presidents pledged cooperation on all issues and expressed commitment to strong personal relationship. This meeting takes place right after the NATO summit in Bucharest where tensions flared about the U.S. campaign for an invitation to Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. Turning to conversations in Bucharest, Putin states his strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia and says that Russia would be relying on anti-NATO forces in Ukraine and “creating problems” in Ukraine “all the time,” because it is concerned about “threat of military bases and new military systems being deployed in the proximity of Russia.” Surprisingly, in response, Bush expresses his admiration for the Russian president’s ability to present his case: “One of the things I admire about you is you weren’t afraid to say it to NATO. That’s very admirable. People listened carefully and had no doubt about your position. It was a good performance.” [READ MEMO HERE]

2001 –  Putin raises a question of Russian NATO membership and says Russia feels “left out.”

As noted by The Islander (Via Twitter) –  “The 2001 Memo That Should Have Ended the Cold War 2.0 and Instead Helped Write the Preface to Ukraine. There are documents that don’t merely record history, they expose it. This is one of them.

June 2001. A “restricted meeting” between President George W. Bush and President Vladimir Putin. Not a podium performance, not a television soundbite, not a speech crafted for domestic applause. A private conversation, the place where empires are supposed to speak plainly, where leaders test ideas that could reroute decades.

And what does the memo show?

Putin raises the idea that Russia could eventually join NATO. He says Russia feels “left out” by NATO enlargement. He points to an older fact most Western publics were never meant to internalize: the Soviet Union applied to join NATO in 1954. He argues the reasons for rejection no longer apply. He suggests, almost clinically, that perhaps Russia could be an ally — “European and multi-ethnic,” comparable in character to the United States.

Read that again slowly.

Because the propaganda version you’ve been fed for years requires amnesia: it requires you to believe Russia woke up one morning and decided to be “a threat,” as if geopolitics is a mood swing and security architecture is irrelevant.

But here is the declassified record: Russia was probing for an exit ramp. A pathway into a shared system. A new security architecture. A post–Cold War settlement that could have turned the 1990s from a hollow victory lap into a durable peace.

And it didn’t happen.

Not because it was impossible. Not because Russia “never wanted it.” Not because “the West tried everything.”

It didn’t happen because NATO, as an institution, does not know how to live without a frontier. It does not know how to justify itself without an adversary. It does not know how to maintain internal cohesion without a map that points east and says: there.

The 1954 Ghost: the offer the West never wanted to remember

The most important part of this memo is not the 2001 line, but the 1954 reference.

Because it collapses the morality play.

If the Soviet Union, a state the West defined as the existential enemy, floated the notion of joining NATO in 1954, that means something profound: the idea of Russia being inside the European security architecture is not a “Putin-era trick.” It is a recurring historical proposal, returning whenever Moscow believes there may be a rational way to avoid permanent confrontation.

And what happened then? It was refused.

Which is exactly the point: NATO was never simply a “defensive alliance.” Even in 1954, It was a structure. A protection racket. A way to organize Europe under an American strategic roof and to keep it there. If Russia enters that roof as an equal, the architecture changes. Budgets decrease, with less money for the MIC. Threat perceptions change. The entire postwar hierarchy changes.

So the West did what empires do when presented with a peace that would reduce their leverage:

It smiled, took notes, and kept moving.

“Join NATO” was never a plea, it was a test.

Some people still misunderstand the early Putin posture. They interpret it as naivete, or worse, submission.

Wrong.

This was not Russia begging to be absorbed. The consistent theme in contemporaneous accounts is conditionality, that Russia could consider joining if treated as an equal partner, but not as a defeated province invited into the emperor’s club after proving it can submit.

That distinction matters.

Because it reveals the real incompatibility:
•Russia wanted a security system where it is a partner of European security, not an object to be managed.
•The Atlantic system wanted Russia as a managed periphery, permanently “integrating,” permanently reforming, permanently conceding, never truly sovereign in security decisions.

You can’t fuse those visions. One side must yield.

So the Atlantic system chose the only thing it has ever really chosen, expansion.”

A quarter century has passed since that original outreach by Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin in 2001.  It was rejected by President George W Bush and all presidents thereafter.  In 2025, we are in the phase of consequence.

This public release just happened on December 23, 2025.

Perhaps, just perhaps, this release can change the conversation in the United States.  Perhaps, just perhaps, President Trump, Secretary Rubio and Emissary Witkoff can reverse the course, and change the arc of history toward peace and a strategic alliance.

The timing of the release inspires hope, but the opposition to peace is extreme.