This paper shows that the values published in the NASA table LOTI cannot be supported when the sun’s energy is used as an input since the difference month to month in the table cannot be less or more than when the sun sends us. Changes in the planets albedo were also considered and even 30% changes in the albedo cannot explain the large amount of energy that must come in or go out if the NASA values are to be believed.

NASA publishes values representing the global surface temperature of the planet supposedly based on actual measurements processed in a complex algorithm they call homogenization. The resulting values are published each month in a table called the Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) which runs from January 1880 to the current month, September 2015 in this case. The process they use is explained on their web site for those that are interested. However the values shown in their work seem to show very large temperature swings on a month to month basis and that did not seem reasonable to me, given this was Global temperatures. This prompted me to do a review of the process in June 2015 and that led to a previous draft paper which was modified to create this finished work.

A small sample from NASA’s table is provided below running from January 2001 to September 2015. A good example of this large swing in values can be found in the value shown in February 2014 of 51 compared to March 2014 of 78 (both shown in red) a difference of 27 anomalies (a quarter of a degree), a NASA measure of temperatures in hundredths of a degree Celsius, represents a lot of energy on a global scale.

What we are going to do now is reverse engineer the NASA Temperature values in the full LOTI table and then calculate the energy flows required to make those changes. If the “required” energy flows are not reasonable, then the NASA temperatures are not reasonable. They must be in synchronization with energy inputs as energy can neither be created nor destroyed. The first step was to place all 1929 LOTI values in a spreadsheet and then turn the NASA anomalies (a deviation from a base of 14.0 degrees Celsius) back into temperatures by dividing by 100 then adding that value back to the base 14.0 degrees Celsius and lastly adding that result to 273.15 to convert to degrees Kelvin. Kelvin must be used to calculate total heat when working on these kinds of projects.

Next we needed to calculate the total heat value of the NASA temperatures and their changes and so from Wikipedia we find that the Earth’s dry atmosphere is 5.1352E+18 kg and the water in the atmosphere is 1.27E+16 kg for a total of 5.1479E+18 kg. From these values we can calculate that water is on average .247% of the atmosphere. We also find that on Wikipedia the specific heat of the Earth’s atmosphere is 1006 Joules per degree Kelvin (J/kg/K) without water and so we need to add 4.6 J/kg/K for water and 9.8 J/kg/K for latent heat to the 1006 J/kg/K giving us a total of 1020.4 J/kg/K for the earth’s atmosphere with .0247% water at standard air.

There is one last step since the NASA values are “surface” temperatures, we need an adjustment for altitude cooling if we are looking for the total energy in the atmosphere. To accomplish this we’ll subtract 28.5 degrees Celsius making the answer the theoretical temperature at 5 km above sea level which is about where 50% of the atmosphere is above 5 km and 50% below; so this makes for a reasonable estimate for calculating total energy. Using this logic we subtract the 28.5 degrees Celsius from the NASA LOTI values that we converted to degree Celsius, which are surface values which then gives a ballpark value to calculate the total heat in the atmosphere.

With the monthly NASA temperatures in a spreadsheet it was only a few hours work to set up the equations and plot a few charts. We calculated the heat value of each month’s anomaly for example for January 1880 the value was 1.3572E+24 Joules and for June 2015 the value was 1.36266E+24 Joules. Those values are a result of energy coming in from the sun minus what leaves the planet as infrared energy assuming no large change in the temperature of the land or oceans. To my knowledge these kinds of temperature changes (energy flows) have not been observed on the surface of the planet.

This review shows that the magnitude of the “required” energy flows is not reasonable indicating to me that the NASA temperatures is not reasonable as can be seen in Chart 1 on the next page. This shows two plots, the monthly change in the NASA anomalies in blue (required energy out) and the sun’s input in red (energy in). The sun’s input is adjusted for the orbital distance to the sun and the number of days in the month which is required to match the time periods shown in the NASA LOTI table. Since the sun is the energy input, the NASA temperatures minus the input must equal the input with the opposite sign, or negative. In other words, the sum of the two must be zero.

It’s clear when looking at Chart 1 that there have to be extremely large monthly energy flows involved here if the NASA numbers are actually valid. To put this in perspective three, lines were added to Chart 1, as shown in Chart 2. These lines are for the incoming solar radiation using 1414.44 Wm² for solar radiation at aphelion (January) and 1322.97 Wm² for solar radiation at perihelion (July) in the earth’s orbit using the following albedo percentages; 20.0% dark red plot, 30.0% (Actual) red plot and 40.0% a yellow plot. The red plot is also shown on Chart 1. We also changed the time frame from 1880 to the present to 2000 to the present so that more detail could be seen when making Chart 2.

The choppy lines in the dark red, red and yellow Sun radiation plots are a result of using monthly values and the months don’t always have the name number of days. The purpose of showing these three radiation plots from the sun is to show that large changes in the planets albedo cannot account for the large energy swings and so the large changes in the NASA data such as shown here just don’t happen. That means that even these large albedo changes cannot account for the large required movements in energy indicated by NASA’s numbers shown in their table LOTI, the actual smaller albedo changes we experience surely can’t.

The blue plot for the NASA temperatures is actually the “required” energy out flow to balance the suns energy inflow. Given the process that NASA uses to determine global temperatures it would be expect that there would be some variations, but surely not of the magnitude shown in this chart.

NOAA and NASA have spend a lot of time and resources developing complex systems with the intent to show how “current’ temperatures were being driven up by the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere caused by the burning of fossil fuels. This was called anthropogenic climate change meaning climate change caused by man. These apparent upward global temperature changes in the 1980’s and 1990’s were assumed by politicians to be dangerous and the scientific community given the task of showing the dangers to the planet of increasing temperatures. Although there was some real scientific validity to the man made climate change movement a true cause and effect review of the concept was never made and money poured in to “prove’ the concept.

Had a true review of the apparent problem been done first it would have been obvious that there were other factors involved besides greenhouse gases the most obvious was the well documented thousand year cycle of warm and cold periods going back several thousand years. The most recent of these cycles ended around 1650 during the coldest part of what is called the Little Ice Age. Assuming the thousand year cycle is valid that means that the global temperature would be ascending for five hundred years peaking around 2150. Based on this principle of multiple reasons for the apparent climate change, a climate model was then developed in 2007 that fit the historic patterns that includes the increases in greenhouse gases. This model is called a pattern model and designated the PCM and shown next.

The next Chart 1a was developed exactly the same way as the NASA Chart 1 was except we used the temperatures generated by the PCM model as shown in the previous PCM chart instead of those developed by NASA in their computer system. We can clearly see in this Chart 1a that this PCM model generates a plot that very closely matches the suns input but is negative which it must be to keep the planet in thermal balance.

The next Chart 2a is based on the same principle as that shown for the NASA data in Chart 2 looking at 2000 to the present for more detail and we can see that the sun’s is exactly balanced by the energy leaving the planet as it must be when we use the PCM model to generate the temperatures. The model was developed in 2007 and this review used the values calculated by the PCM model.

Further from a total energy, heat, perspective the current increase in global temperatures of just over plus 1 degree Celsius from 1880 is less than 4 tenths of a percent change in the planets heat content. Even 2 degrees Celsius as predicted by the PCM model would be less than 6 tens of a percent change in the planets heat content so making claims of utter disaster for such small amounts of a heat increase is really stretching the point especially since the planet has reached temperatures beyond where we are now many times in the distant past; we are still just barely out of the last ice age after all.

The point to this analysis is to show that whatever the method used to analyze global temperatures, the in’s and out’s must balance. Clearly the NASA-GISS table LOTI data is not valid for the monthly temperature swings exceed what would be possible in the real world. Maybe if NASA would concentrate on developing real systems and models instead of doing the bidding of politicians their work might actually be valid.

This paper contains original research on the energy balance of the climate (weather) of the planet. A more sophisticated analysis could possibly be done showing what the effect of the1 to 2 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures that has accrued since the end of the little ice age in ~1650 would look like; maybe a 3D chart would work giving another dimension to work with. The energy balance would still be there but the in’s and out’s would have a pattern similar to what is shown in the chart of the PCM model and trending upward indicated that there is an increase in temperature

David J. Pristash, Independent Researcher
BBA, EMBA, Graduate GE management program
Captain US ARMY 18A (WIA Retired), Seven issued patents
Member Beta Gamma Sigma

The analysis and plots shown here are based on the following: first NASA-GISS temperature anomalies (converted to degrees Celsius so non-scientists will understand the plots) as shown in their table LOTI, second James E. Hansen’s Scenario B data, which is the very core of the IPCC Global Climate models (GCM’s) and which was based on a CO₂ sensitivity value of 3.0^O Celsius, lastly, a plot based on an alternative climate model designated ‘PCM’ and based on a sensitively value of 0.65^O Celsius.

An explanation of the alternative model designated, PCM, is in order since many have interpreted this PCM model as a statistical least squares projection of some kind. Nothing could be further from the truth. A decade ago when I started this work the first thing I did was look at geological temperature changes since it is well known that the climate is not a constant; I learned that in my undergrad geology and climatology courses in 1964.

The following observations give a starting point to any serious study. First, there is a clear movement in global temperatures with a 1,000 some year cycle going back at least 3,000 to 4,000 years; probably because of the apsidal precession of about 21,000 years for a complete cycle. However about every 10,000 years the seasons are reversed making the winter colder and the summer warmer in the northern hemisphere. 10,000 years from now the seasons will be reversed. Secondly, there are also 60 to 70 year cycles in the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans that are well documented. Lastly we also know that there are greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) estimated that carbon dioxide had a doubling rate of 3.0^O Celsius plus or minus 1.5^O Celsius in 1979.

The core problem with the current climate change theory is that the IPCC still uses the NAS 3.0^O Celsius as the sensitivity value of carbon dioxide and a number in that range is required to make the IPCC GCM’s work. The problem with using this value is it leaves no room for other factors and hence the need of the infamous hockey stick plots of the IPCC from Mann, Bradley & Hughes in 1999. The PCM model is based on a much lower value for carbon dioxide consistent with current research. This places the value between 0.65^O and 1.5^O Celsius per doubling of carbon dioxide. If the long and short movement in temperatures and a lower value for carbon dioxide are properly analyzed and combined a plot that matched historical and current (non manipulated) NASA temperature estimates very well can be constructed. This is not curve fitting.

The PCM model is such a construct and it is not based on statistical analyses of raw data. It is based on creating curves that match observations (which is real science) and those observations appear to be related to the movement of water in the world’s oceans. The movements of ocean currents are well documented in the literature. All that was done here was properly combine the separate variables into one curve which had not been previously done, to my knowledge. Since this combined curve is an excellent predictor of global temperatures unlike the IPCC GCM’s, it appears to reflect reality a bit better than the convoluted IPCC GCM’s, which after the past 19 years of no statistical warming have been shown to be in error.

Now, to smooth out highly erratic monthly variations a 12 month running average is used in all the plots. This information will be shown in four tables and updated each month as the new data comes in about the middle of the month. Since no model or simulation that cannot reasonably predict that which it was design to do is worth anything the information presented here definitively proves that NASA, NOAA and the IPCC just don’t have a clue.

Note, starting in late 20014 and continuing to the present NASA has made major changes to the way they calculate the values used in their table LOTI. These changes have significantly increased the apparent global temperatures (political reasons) and these changes are not supported by satellite data; sp they are probably not real. This paper uses the questionable NASA data since it is all that is available at this time. Prior to this “change” the PCM plot showed almost no error for NASA data as can be seen in the plots posted here last year.

The first plot, UL is a plot of the NASA temperature anomaly converted to degrees Celsius and shown in red with a black trend line added. There has been a very clear reversal in the upward movement of global temperatures since about 2001 and neither the UN IPCC nor anyone else has an explanation for this 13 years later. Since CO₂ has continued to increase at what could be argued an increasing rate, this raises serious doubts about the logic programmed into all the IPCC global climate models.

The next plot UR, also in red, shows the IPCC estimates of what the Global temperature should be, based on Hansen’s Scenario B, with the NASA actual temperatures’ subtracted from them. Therefore this plot represents a deviation from what the Climate “believers” KNOW what the temperature should be; with a positive value indicating the IPCC values are higher than actual and a negative value indicating the IPCC values are lower than actual, as measured by NASA. A black trend line is added and we can clearly see that the deviation from expected is increasing at an increasing rate. This makes sense since the IPCC models project increased temperatures based primarily on the increasing level of CO₂ in the earth’s atmosphere. Unfortunately, for them, the actual temperatures from NASA are trending down (even as they try to hide the down ward movement with data manipulation) since other factors are in play, therefore each year the gap between them widens. Since we have 13 years of observations’ showing this pattern it becomes hard to justify a continuing belief in the IPCC climate models, there is obviously something very wrong here.

The next plot LL shown in blue is based on the equations in the PCM climate model described in previous papers and posts here and since it is generated by “equations” a trend line is not needed. As can be seen the PCM, LL, and the NASA, UL, trend plots are very similar the reason being that in the PCM model, there is a 68.2 year cycle that moves the trend line up and then down a total of 0.30^O Celsius (currently negative .0070^O Celsius per year); and we are now in the downward portion of that trend which will continue until around 2035. This short cycle is clearly observed in the raw NASA data in the LOTI table going back to 1868. Then there is a long trend, 1052.6 years with an up and down of 1.36^O Celsius (currently plus .0029^O Celsius per year) also observed in the NASA data. Lastly, there is CO₂ adding about .005^O Celsius per year so they basically wash out, which matches the current holding pattern we are experiencing. However within a few years the increasing downward trend of the short cycle will overpower the other two and we will see drop of about .002^O Celsius per year and that will be increasing until till around 2025 or so. After about 2035 the short cycle will have bottomed and turn up and all three will be on the upswing again. These are all round numbers shown here as representative values.

The last plot LR in blue uses the same logic as used in the UR plot, here we use the PCM estimates of what the Global temperature should be with the NASA actual temperatures’ subtracted from them. A positive value indicates the PCM values are higher than actual and a negative value indicates the PCM values are lower than expected. A black trend line was added and it clearly shows that the PCM model is tracking the NASA actual values very closely. In, fact since 1970 the PCM model has rarely been off by more than +/- 0.1 degrees Celsius and has an average trend of almost zero error, while the IPCC models are erratic and are now approaching an error rate of +0.5^O above expected.

Note: Since I first started posting this monthly analysis a year and a half ago NOAA and NASA were directed make the global temperatures fit the political narrative that the planet was over heating and something drastic need to be done right now. The problem was as shown in this analysis the “real” world temperatures were not at the level that the IPCC GCM’s said they should be. Major adjustments to the data have been made that give the illusion that temperatures are going up even though they are not. However, as this analysis shows even with the manipulation that has destroyed all credibility from NOAA and NASA they cannot get the global temperatures even close to what their false theory claims they should be.

In summary, the IPCC models were designed before a true picture of the world’s climate was understood. During the 1980’s and 1990’s CO₂ levels were going up and the world temperature was also going up so there appeared to be correlation and causation. The mistake that was made was looking at only a ~20 year period when the real variations in climate move in much longer cycles. Those other cycles can be observed in the NASA data but they were ignored for some reason. By ignoring those trends and focusing only on CO₂ the models will be unable to correctly plot global temperatures until they are fixed.

Lastly, the next chart shows what a plot of the PCM model would look like from the year 1000 to the year 2300. The plot matches reasonably well with history and fits the current NASA-GISS table LOTI date very closely, despite homogenization. I understand that this model is not based on physics but it is also not curve fitting. It’s based on observed reoccurring patterns in the climate. These patterns can be modeled and when they are, you get a plot that works better than any of the IPCC’s GCM’s. If the conditions that create these patterns do not change and CO₂ continues to increase to 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm than this model will work into the foreseeable future. 150 years from now global temperatures will peak at around 15.5 to 15.7 degrees C and then will be on the downside of the long cycle for the next 500 years. The overall effect of CO₂ reaching levels of 1000 ppm or even higher will be between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C which is about the same as that of the long cycle.

Carbon Dioxide is not capable of doing what Hansen and Gore claim!

The purpose of this post is to make people aware of the errors inherent in the IPCC models so that they can be corrected.

The Obama administration’s “need” for a binding UN climate treaty with mandated CO₂ reductions in Europe and America means there will be such a resolution presented at the COP12 conference in Paris in December. To support this NASA will be forced to show ever increasing global temperatures for the rest of 2015 that will make less and less sense based on observations and satellite data which will all be dismissed or ignored.

Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers for science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

… (S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected.

During the last quarter of 2014 I noticed a change in the NASA-GISS data being published for Global temperatures. Many others had also noticed that NASA’s numbers were at odds with the published satellite data for global Temperatures as the satellite data was sowing no increase and the ground data published by NASA were showing increases. It should be noted that even the manipulated NASA numbers were almost a half degree Celsius lower than what the IPCC climate models claimed it should be indicating that something was wrong with the Global Climate models (GCM’s)

Although the changes being made to the global temperatures by NASA were noticeable they were not going to be enough to come close the IPCC projections so why was this being done? A closer look at the newer numbers verses the older numbers gave a clue as to why the change was being made; and the reason was that in December 2015 there was going to be a Climate conference held in Paris with the stated purpose of agreeing to a new binding climate treaty on the worlds carbon polluters since the climate models were predicting that global temperatures would exceed a 2 degree Celsius limit that had been established a number of years ago. That limit had no basis in fact and the climate models have already been proved to be in error so since the real science was not cooperating with the political science something needed to be done to support the binding climate tax that was going to be presented at the COP21 conference and that Obama was going to take to the UN for approval.

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21 or CMP11 will be held in Paris, from November 30 to December 11. It will be the 21st yearly session of the Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.[3] The conference objective is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world. The overarching goal of the Convention is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Pope Francis published an encyclical called Laudato si’ intended, in part, to influence the conference. The encyclical calls for action against human-caused climate change. The International Trade Union Confederation has called for the goal to be “zero carbon, zero poverty”, and the general secretary Sharan Burrow has repeated that there are “no jobs on a dead planet”.

On February 15, 2015, I posted a paper on my blog were I accused NASA-GISS of data manipulation with the only possible purpose for doing this was to misleading the public about what they call Climate Change caused by Mankind. Since their theory is not sound and it’s based on speculation more than true science the results of their Global Climate Models (GCM’s) do not match measured global temperatures. Normally when this happens the scientific community has corrected their theories and eventually found the truth. In this case the politicians seeking power and taxes have prevented the truth from coming out as they have taken over the scientific community for their own nefarious purposes. The NASA data that was published for January 2015 is an example of what has been done to a previously honest system. I place the blame for this solely at the feet of the former VP of the United States Al Gore.

The following chart was in that paper with an explanation of how it was created from two sets of NASA-GISS data in their LOTI table one for December 2014 (green plot) and the other for January 2015 (red Plot); earlier that day I posted both sets of NASA data on my blog the actual data in available there. This chart shows hundredths of a degree Celsius on the vertical axis which is a deviation from the base period defined as 14 degrees Celsius and which NASA calls anomalies. Also I have taken many college level math and statistical courses, therefore I have a decent feel for data, cause and effect and forecasting so I can spot manipulation as shown in this chart.

NASA uses a complex computer program that takes all the available world temperatures and through a formula they have developed they create the LOTI table each month representing a history of the world’s temperature back to January 1880. Now I realize that history today is not fixed but I did think that science was above revisionist history, but apparently not. The Chart above shows three things that cannot occur randomly and must be programmed in, therefore they were done intentionally and for a political purpose. The first thing that stands out is that the two plots are not the same. The second thing is that temperatures from 1970 to the present have been shifted up red arrow and the next thing is that temperatures from 1910 back to 1880 have been shifted down blue arrow. Lastly there is a period from 1950 to 1970 where there was no change black oval. The black oval contains the base period for NASA so it can’t change by definition and it doesn’t change. That period was fixed a long time ago at 14.0 degrees Celsius and that value cannot be allowed to change or the entire concept falls apart.

Now enter the politics and the push for a climate change treaty where we have been told over the past 20 plus years that the use of fossil fuels is driving up CO2 and that is the reason we have climate change, formally global warming. In other posts on my blog I show how that was developed and why it was wrong. To support the climate treaty they need to show that the global temperature is, in fact, going up. The problem is that the increases in temperatures stopped almost ten years ago, although because of variations it wasn’t as obvious as it is now. BTW the satellite data does not support this increase.

The politicians needed to show that 2015 was very hot and also hotter than 2014 to support the adaption of the treaty planed for the end of 2015. NASA was therefore directed to show that temperatures were going up in support of this planned treaty. Can I prove this, no not directly but the published data shows that this is being done and the scientists at NASA would not do this unless they were directed to do this for fear for their jobs. So they pushed down temperatures from 1880 to 1910 blue arrow and then pushed up all the temperatures from 1970 to the present red arrow; giving us the red plot.

In my professional opinion this “change” cannot be done in the process that NASA uses to produce the LOTI unless it was programmed in; therefore it is not real and it is political. Further I assert that this false data will be continued for the rest of this year so that “they” can claim that “they” need this climate treaty or we are all doomed. According to “them” and this January 2015 release 2014 was the hottest year on record. The follow on for the next 10 months will be that 2015 will be even hotter than 2014.

I cannot stress this enough there can be no other reason for what was just done. We are going to be shown false data from NASA-GISS for the next 10 months until this conference such that they hope there will be support for the treaty that they want which will be a massive tax on America and Europe so that controlled development can be forced on other areas of the planet. This will be in line with the already approved UN Agenda 21 which is already being implemented in the United States.

The real goal here has nothing to do with CO2 or climate those are only the tools to force a change from representative government to one controlled by the powerful elites (business leaders and politicians); such as now exists in the EU where the government body of the EU is not elected by the people yet their ruling are binding on the people. The result of this conference and treaty, if adopted will either give the sovereign power of the countries to the UN or to some other body. What will come of that is unknown but we do know from past history that concentrated power is never good.

A few days after I wrote the information presented here on why NASA was manipulating temperature data buy making the past colder and the present warmer the Huffington post wrote two posts.
Despite The Recent Snow, The U.S. Has Actually Been Having An Unusually Warm Winter

UN Negotiators Agree On Early Draft Of Climate Deal For Upcoming Paris Conference

Why would they have done this only a few days after the NASA data release, it takes time to write these posts and so the most likely reason is they were ready for this story before the NASA data was released, they knew what the release was going to show even before it came out.

The next chart was produced from information published by NASA after the release of the August temperatures and is presented in a different format There are three categories shown in this chart: the first is the period 1880 to 1950 containing 840 monthly values and shown in blue circles, the second is the period 1951 to 1980 containing 360 monthly values shown in black diamonds, and the last is the period 1981 to the present containing 312 values as of August 2015 and shown in red squares. The plot shown in each case is the average anomaly for all the values in that category for the indicated month of publication. Unfortunately I did not save all the printouts of the LOTI tables as I assumed that they would be available online if needed. Sadly that is not true and so there are large gaps in the chart until late in 2012. NASA did not want their older data to be available since they were manipulating it.

Since NASA has designated the period 1951 to 1980 as the 14.0 degree Celsius base it can by definition not change and NASA has done a good job of making the 30 year period work out to near zero, as can be seen in the black diamonds. It’s important to understand that this period MUST equal zero and since the values in this LOTI table are always changing the software has to be set to make this period come out to zero. When plots are made of the monthly NASA issues a teeter totter effect can be observed with the pivot point being 1951 to 1980 as shown in the first chart shown here.

Now the period 1880 to 1950 in blue is historical and so one would think is fixed; however NASA does not buy that the past cannot be changed. Ignoring the one 2008 value we look at the four 2009 and 2010 values, cyan oval, and then look at the 2012 to 2014 values and we see a shift of about five hundredths of a degree down which is a major shift. Then in 2014 and 2015, black oval, the plot gets erratic as NASA starts to do serious manipulation of the data and also it’s hard to change the average as there are 840 values here. NASA must have been directed to make sure that 2015 was the hottest year ever and that required a lot of program changes to make that happen. Getting the right (political) outcome would not be an easy task and so it apparently it took the programmers a few months to get it right.

The current period 1981 to the present (September 2015) is the most important one, politically, and is shown here as the red squares. The red plots look “reasonable” though 2014 and then they also start to get erratic. The red plots contain over 300 values so to see a jump in the plots as seen in 2015 especially in the last several monthly publications is very unlikely to be “natural” for it indicates that a large numbers of values have suddenly gone up not just a few in the current months. I am sure that this manipulation will continue through the end of the year so that there can be a case made to justify a carbon tax on all the US Canada and the EU. This tax will be proposed by Obama and the catholic Pope and passed by the UN in early 2016. I would be very surprised if the red plot doesn’t reach 50 or greater by the end of the year.
Hopefully I am wrong in my assessment and I would love to be proved wrong. I will update this chart for the rest of the year so we can see what is going on with the data. But I fear that this data manipulation will continue until the Paris UN Climate conference building up to a crescendo in October and November just in time for the conference.

The following chart was produced from information published monthly by NASA-GISS on their website in a table designated the land ocean temperature index, LOTI, which contains temperature deviations from a base of 14.0 degrees Celsius. These deviations are in hundredths of a degree Celsius and are called anomalies and NASA almost never uses actual temperatures in what they do. Personally I do not support this method since the base period, 1951 to 1980, is totally arbitrary and has no significance.

This chart was created after several years of observing strange movements in the values posted in the LOTI table. These changes result from NASA recalculating the entire data set each month when the new month was added to the chart. When I first realized this I thought it was just random movements that would cancel out; but that turned out to not be the case and the movements were observed to follow patterns. I have written about this many times over the past few years but these movements have become more and more out of touch with reality as NASA tries to make the global temperatures match the need of the Obama administration and the COP21 conference, to be held in Paris in November 2015 for “high” global temperatures to justify the world tax on carbon that will be proposed in the UN early 2016. There will be two more releases between now and when the conference starts, one for September and one for October which will be coming out just when the conference starts.

There are three categories shown in this chart: the first is the period 1880 to 1950 containing 840 monthly values and shown in blue circles, the second is the period 1951 to 1980 containing 360 monthly values shown in black diamonds, and the last is the period 1981 to the present containing 312 values as of August 2015 and shown in red squares. The plot shown in each case is the average anomaly for all the values in that category for the indicated month of publication. Unfortunately I did not save all the printouts of the LOTI tables as I assumed that they would be available online if needed. Sadly that is not true and so there are large gaps in the chart until late in 2012.

Since NASA has designated the period 1951 to 1980 as the 14.0 degree Celsius base it can by definition not change and NASA has done a good job of making the 30 year period work out to near zero, as can be seen in the black diamonds. However, if the individual months are looked at a slightly different look appears. Basally the earlier portion in the 50’s moves down and the newer portion in the 70’s move up such that the average stays zero. This is required to support the changes in the other two periods. It’s important to understand that this period MUST equal zero and since the values in this LOTI table are always changing the software has to be set to make this period come out to zero. When plots are made of the monthly NASA issues a teeter totter effect can be observed with the pivot point being 1951 to 1980.

Now the period 1880 to 1950 in blue is historical and so one would think is fixed; however NASA does not buy that the past cannot be changed. Ignoring the one 2008 value we look at the four 2009 and 2010 values and then look at the 2012 to 2014 values and we see a shift of about five hundredths of a degree down which is a major shift. Then in 2014 and 2015 the plot gets erratic as NASA starts to do serious manipulation of the data and temporarily loses control of the system. NASA must have been directed to make sure that 2015 was the hottest year ever and that required a lot of program changes to make that happen. Getting the right (political) outcome would not be an easy task and so it apparently it took the programmers a few months to get it right.

The current period 1981 to the present (August 2015) is the most important one, politically, and is shown here as the red squares. The red plots look “reasonable” though 2014 and then like the blue things start to get erratic. Keep in mind that each point on the chart represents an average of hundreds of values so a noticeable change cannot be from random movements. The red plots contain over 300 values so to see a jump in the plots as seen in 2015 especially in the last several monthly publications is very unlikely to be “natural” for it indicates that a large numbers of values have suddenly gone up not just a few in the current months.

This manipulation can also be seen in the blue plots after 2014 where it is even harder to change the average as there are 840 values here. I am sure that this manipulation will continue through the end of the year so that there can be a case made to justify a carbon tax on all the US Canada and the EU. This tax will be proposed by Obama and the catholic Pope and passed by the UN in early 2016. I would be very surprised if the red plot doesn’t reach 50 or greater by the end of the year.

These large upward changes to the global temperature are not supported by the satellites that also measure temperatures, so there is some discussion being proposed that there are errors in the satellites and/or in their calibration since they to do support the NASA ground data showing large increases. I would not be surprised if an error was found in the next few months that shows that the satellites data is not right.

Hopefully I am wrong in my assessment and I would love to be proved wrong. I will update this chart for the rest of the year so we can see what is going on with the data.

NASA publishes values representing the global surface temperature of the planet supposedly based on actual measurements processed in a complex algorithm they call homogenization. The resulting values are published each month in a table called the Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) which runs from January 1880 to the current month, May in this case. The process they use is explained on their web site for those that are interested. However the values shown in their work seem to show very large temperature swings on a month to month basis and that did not seem reasonable to me, given this was Global temperatures. This prompted me to do a review of the process in June 2015 and that led to a previous draft paper which was modified to create this finished work.

A small sample from NASA’s table is provided below running from January 2001 to May 2015. A good example of this large swing in values can be found in the value shown in February 2014 of 44 compared to March 2014 of 71 (both shown in red) a difference of 27 anomalies, a NASA measure of temperatures in hundredths of a degree Celsius, represents a lot of energy on a global scale.

What we are going to do now is reverse engineer the NASA Temperature values in the full LOTI table and then calculate the energy flows required to make those changes. If the “required” energy flows are not reasonable, then the NASA temperatures are not reasonable. They must be in synchronization with each other as energy can neither be created nor destroyed. The first step was to place all 1925 LOTI values in a spreadsheet and then turn the NASA anomalies (a deviation from a base of 14.0 degrees Celsius) back into temperatures by dividing by 100 then adding that value back to the base 14.0 degrees Celsius and lastly adding that result to 273.15 to convert to degrees Kelvin. Kelvin must be used to calculate total heat when working on these kinds of projects.

Next we needed to calculate the total heat value of the NASA temperatures and their changes and so from Wikipedia we find that the Earth’s dry atmosphere is 5.1352E+18 kg and the water in the atmosphere is 1.27E+16 kg for a total of 5.1479E+18 kg. From these values we can calculate that water is on average .247% of the atmosphere. We also find that on Wikipedia the specific heat of the Earth’s atmosphere is 1006 Joules per degree Kelvin (J/kg/K) without water and so we need to add 4.6 J/kg/K for water and 9.8 J/kg/K for latent heat to the 1006 J/kg/K giving us a total of 1020.4 J/kg/K for the earth’s atmosphere with .0247% water at standard air.

There is one last step since the NASA values are “surface” temperatures, we need an adjustment for altitude cooling if we are looking for the total energy in the atmosphere. To accomplish this we’ll subtract 28.5 degrees Celsius making the answer the theoretical temperature at 5 km above sea level which is about where 50% of the atmosphere is above 5 km and 50% below; so this makes for a reasonable estimate for calculating total energy. Using this logic we subtract the 28.5 degrees Celsius from the NASA LOTI values that we converted to degree Celsius, which are surface values which then gives a ballpark value to calculate the total heat in the atmosphere.

With the monthly NASA temperatures in a spreadsheet it was only a few hours work to set up the equations and plot a few charts. We calculated the heat value of each month’s anomaly for example for January 1880 the value was 1.3572E+24 Joules and for June 2015 the value was 1.36266E+24 Joules. Those values are a result of energy coming in from the sun minus what leaves the planet as infrared energy assuming no large change in the temperature of the land or oceans. To my knowledge these kinds of temperature changes (energy flows) have not been observed on the surface of the planet.

This review shows that the magnitude of the “required” energy flows is not reasonable indicating to me that the NASA temperatures is not reasonable as can be seen in Chart 1 on the next page. This shows two plots, the monthly change in the NASA anomalies in blue (required energy out) and the sun’s input in red (energy in). The sun’s input is adjusted for the orbital distance to the sun and the number of days in the month which is required to match the time periods shown in the NASA LOTI table. Since the sun is the energy input, the NASA temperatures minus the input must equal the input with the opposite sign, or negative. In other words, the sum of the two must be zero.

, David Pristash

It’s clear when looking at Chart 1 that there have to be extremely large monthly energy flows involved here if the NASA numbers are actually valid. To put this in perspective three, lines were added to Chart 1, as shown in Chart 2. These lines are for the incoming solar radiation using 1414.44 Wm² for solar radiation at aphelion (January) and 1322.97 Wm² for solar radiation at perihelion (July) in the earth’s orbit using the following albedo percentages; 20.0% dark red plot, 30.0% (Actual) red plot and 40.0% a yellow plot. The red plot is also shown on Chart 1. We also changed the time frame from 1880 to the present to 2000 to the present so that more detail could be seen when making Chart 2.

The choppy lines in the dark red, red and yellow Sun radiation plots are a result of using monthly values and the months don’t always have the name number of days. The purpose of showing these three radiation plots from the sun is to show that large changes in the planets albedo cannot account for the large energy swings and so the large changes in the NASA data such as shown here just don’t happen. That means that even these large albedo changes cannot account for the large required movements in energy indicated by NASA’s numbers shown in their table LOTI, the actual smaller albedo changes we experience surely can’t.

The blue plot for the NASA temperatures is actually the “required” energy out flow to balance the suns energy inflow. Given the process that NASA uses to determine global temperatures it would be expect that there would be some variations, but surely not of the magnitude shown in this chart.

NOAA and NASA have spend a lot of time and resources developing complex systems with the intent to show how “current’ temperatures were being driven up by the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere caused by the burning of fossil fuels. This was called anthropogenic climate change meaning climate change caused by man. These apparent upward global temperature changes in the 1980’s and 1990’s were assumed by politicians to be dangerous and the scientific community given the task of showing the dangers to the planet of increasing temperatures. Although there was some real scientific validity to the man made climate change movement a true cause and effect review of the concept was never made and money poured in to “prove’ the concept.

Had a true review of the apparent problem been done first it would have been obvious that there were other factors involved besides greenhouse gases the most obvious was the well documented thousand year cycle of warm and cold periods going back several thousand years. The most recent of these cycles ended around 1650 during the coldest part of what is called the Little Ice Age. Assuming the thousand year cycle is valid that means that the global temperature would be ascending for five hundred years peaking around 2150. Based on this principle of multiple reasons for the apparent climate change, a climate model was then developed that fit the historic patterns that includes the increases in greenhouse gases. This model is called a pattern model and designated the PCM and shown next.

The next Chart 1a was developed exactly the same way as the NASA Chart 1 was except we used the temperatures generated by the PCM model as shown in the previous PCM chart instead of those developed by NASA in their computer system. We can clearly see in this Chart 1a that this PCM model generates a plot that very closely matches the suns input but is negative which it must be to keep the planet in thermal balance.

The next Chart 2a is based on the same principle as that shown for the NASA data in Chart 2 looking at 2000 to the present for more detail and we can see that the sun’s is exactly balanced by the energy leaving the planet as it must be when we use the PCM model to generate the temperatures. The model was developed in 2007 and this review used the values calculated by the PCM model.

Further from a total energy, heat, perspective the current increase in global temperatures of just over plus 1 degree Celsius from 1880 is less than 4 tenths of a percent change in the planets heat content. Even 2 degrees Celsius as predicted by the PCM model would be less than 6 tens of a percent change in the planets heat content so making claims of utter disaster for such small amounts of a heat increase is really stretching the point especially since the planet has reached temperatures beyond where we are now many times in the distant past; we are still just barely out of the last ice age after all.

The point to this analysis is to show that whatever the method used to analyze global temperatures, the in’s and out’s must balance. Clearly the NASA-GISS table LOTI data is not valid for the monthly temperature swings exceed what would be possible in the real world. Maybe if NASA would concentrate on developing real systems and models instead of doing the bidding of politicians their work might actually be valid.

This paper contains original research on the energy balance of the climate (weather) of the planet. A more sophisticated analysis could possibly be done showing what the effect of the1 to 2 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures that has accrued since the end of the little ice age in ~1650 would look like; maybe a 3D chart would work giving another dimension to work with. The energy balance would still be there but the in’s and out’s would have a pattern similar to what is shown in the chart of the PCM model and trending upward indicated that there is an increase in temperature

The analysis and plots shown here are based on the following: first NASA-GISS temperature anomalies (converted to degrees Celsius so non-scientists will understand the plots) as shown in their table LOTI, second James E. Hansen’s Scenario B data, which is the very core of the IPCC Global Climate models (GCM’s) and which was based on a CO₂ sensitivity value of 3.0^O Celsius, lastly, a plot based on an alternative climate model designated ‘PCM’ and based on a sensitively value of 0.65^O Celsius.

An explanation of the alternative model designated, PCM, is in order since many have interpreted this PCM model as a statistical least squares projection of some kind. Nothing could be further from the truth. A decade ago when I started this work the first thing I did was look at geological temperature changes since it is well known that the climate is not a constant; I learned that in my undergrad geology and climatology courses in 1964.

The following observations give a starting point to any serious study. First, there is a clear movement in global temperatures with a 1,000 some year cycle going back at least 3,000 to 4,000 years; probably because of the apsidal precession of about 21,000 years for a complete cycle. However about every 10,000 years the seasons are reversed making the winter colder and the summer warmer in the northern hemisphere. 10,000 years from now the seasons will be reversed. Secondly, there are also 60 to 70 year cycles in the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans that are well documented. Lastly we also know that there are greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) estimated that carbon dioxide had a doubling rate of 3.0^O Celsius plus or minus 1.5^O Celsius in 1979.

The core problem with the current climate change theory is that the IPCC still uses the NAS 3.0^O Celsius as the sensitivity value of carbon dioxide and a number in that range is required to make the IPCC GCM’s work. The problem with using this value is it leaves no room for other factors and hence the need of the infamous hockey stick plots of the IPCC from Mann, Bradley & Hughes in 1999. The PCM model is based on a much lower value for carbon dioxide consistent with current research. This places the value between 0.65^O and 1.5^O Celsius per doubling of carbon dioxide. If the long and short movement in temperatures and a lower value for carbon dioxide are properly analyzed and combined a plot that matched historical and current (non manipulated) NASA temperature estimates very well can be constructed. This is not curve fitting.

The PCM model is such a construct and it is not based on statistical analyses of raw data. It is based on creating curves that match observations (which is real science) and those observations appear to be related to the movement of water in the world’s oceans. The movements of ocean currents are well documented in the literature. All that was done here was properly combine the separate variables into one curve which had not been previously done, to my knowledge. Since this combined curve is an excellent predictor of global temperatures unlike the IPCC GCM’s, it appears to reflect reality a bit better than the convoluted IPCC GCM’s, which after the past 19 years of no statistical warming have been shown to be in error.

Now, to smooth out highly erratic monthly variations a 12 month running average is used in all the plots. This information will be shown in four tables and updated each month as the new data comes in about the middle of the month. Since no model or simulation that cannot reasonably predict that which it was design to do is worth anything the information presented here definitively proves that NASA, NOAA and the IPCC just don’t have a clue.

The first plot, UL is a plot of the NASA temperature anomaly converted to degrees Celsius and shown in red with a black trend line added. There has been a very clear reversal in the upward movement of global temperatures since about 2001 and neither the UN IPCC nor anyone else has an explanation for this 13 years later. Since CO₂ has continued to increase at what could be argued an increasing rate, this raises serious doubts about the logic programmed into all the IPCC global climate models.

The next plot UR, also in red, shows the IPCC estimates of what the Global temperature should be, based on Hansen’s Scenario B, with the NASA actual temperatures’ subtracted from them. Therefore this plot represents a deviation from what the Climate “believers” KNOW what the temperature should be; with a positive value indicating the IPCC values are higher than actual and a negative value indicating the IPCC values are lower than actual, as measured by NASA. A black trend line is added and we can clearly see that the deviation from expected is increasing at an increasing rate. This makes sense since the IPCC models project increased temperatures based primarily on the increasing level of CO₂ in the earth’s atmosphere. Unfortunately, for them, the actual temperatures from NASA are trending down (even as they try to hide the down ward movement with data manipulation) since other factors are in play, therefore each year the gap between them widens. Since we have 13 years of observations’ showing this pattern it becomes hard to justify a continuing belief in the IPCC climate models, there is obviously something very wrong here.

The next plot LL shown in blue is based on the equations in the PCM climate model described in previous papers and posts here and since it is generated by “equations” a trend line is not needed. As can be seen the PCM, LL, and the NASA, UL, trend plots are very similar the reason being that in the PCM model, there is a 68.2 year cycle that moves the trend line up and then down a total of 0.30^O Celsius (currently negative .0070^O Celsius per year); and we are now in the downward portion of that trend which will continue until around 2035. This short cycle is clearly observed in the raw NASA data in the LOTI table going back to 1868. Then there is a long trend, 1052.6 years with an up and down of 1.36^O Celsius (currently plus .0029^O Celsius per year) also observed in the NASA data. Lastly, there is CO₂ adding about .005^O Celsius per year so they basically wash out, which matches the current holding pattern we are experiencing. However within a few years the increasing downward trend of the short cycle will overpower the other two and we will see drop of about .002^O Celsius per year and that will be increasing until till around 2025 or so. After about 2035 the short cycle will have bottomed and turn up and all three will be on the upswing again. These are all round numbers shown here as representative values.

The last plot LR in blue uses the same logic as used in the UR plot, here we use the PCM estimates of what the Global temperature should be with the NASA actual temperatures’ subtracted from them. A positive value indicates the PCM values are higher than actual and a negative value indicates the PCM values are lower than expected. A black trend line was added and it clearly shows that the PCM model is tracking the NASA actual values very closely. In, fact since 1970 the PCM model has rarely been off by more than +/- 0.1 degrees Celsius and has an average trend of almost zero error, while the IPCC models are erratic and are now approaching an error rate of +0.5^O above expected.

Note: Since I first started posting this monthly analysis a year and a half ago NOAA and NASA were directed make the global temperatures fit the political narrative that the planet was over heating and something drastic need to be done right now. The problem was as shown in this analysis the “real” world temperatures were not at the level that the IPCC GCM’s said they should be. Major adjustments to the data have been made that give the illusion that temperatures are going up even though they are not. However, as this analysis shows even with the manipulation that has destroyed all credibility from NOAA and NASA they cannot get the global temperatures even close to what their false theory claims they should be.

In summary, the IPCC models were designed before a true picture of the world’s climate was understood. During the 1980’s and 1990’s CO₂ levels were going up and the world temperature was also going up so there appeared to be correlation and causation. The mistake that was made was looking at only a ~20 year period when the real variations in climate move in much longer cycles. Those other cycles can be observed in the NASA data but they were ignored for some reason. By ignoring those trends and focusing only on CO₂ the models will be unable to correctly plot global temperatures until they are fixed.

Lastly, the next chart shows what a plot of the PCM model would look like from the year 1000 to the year 2300. The plot matches reasonably well with history and fits the current NASA-GISS table LOTI date very closely, despite homogenization. I understand that this model is not based on physics but it is also not curve fitting. It’s based on observed reoccurring patterns in the climate. These patterns can be modeled and when they are, you get a plot that works better than any of the IPCC’s GCM’s. If the conditions that create these patterns do not change and CO₂ continues to increase to 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm than this model will work into the foreseeable future. 150 years from now global temperatures will peak at around 15.5 to 15.7 degrees C and then will be on the downside of the long cycle for the next 500 years. The overall effect of CO₂ reaching levels of 1000 ppm or even higher will be between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C which is about the same as that of the long cycle.

Carbon Dioxide is not capable of doing what Hansen and Gore claim!

The purpose of this post is to make people aware of the errors inherent in the IPCC models so that they can be corrected.

The Obama administration’s “need” for a binding UN climate treaty with mandated CO₂ reductions in Europe and America means there will be such a resolution presented at the COP12 conference in Paris in December. To support this NASA will be forced to show ever increasing global temperatures for the rest of 2015 that will make less and less sense based on observations and satellite data which will all be dismissed or ignored.

Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers for science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

… (S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected.