Tag Archives: Trade Deal

Mar 9 2026

Mexico and USA Begin Bilateral Preparations to Dissolve USMCA Without Canada


Posted originally on CTH on March 8, 2026 | Sundance

One of the most curious aspects to the predictable USMCA review, ie. dissolution, has been the incapacity of the Canadian government or trade delegation to accept the United States is going to create two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements and eliminate the trilateral USMCA.

For 16 months the Canadians have refused to fathom the reality of what is going to happen this year.

The Canadians just cannot believe it is possible they will be forced to negotiate a free trade agreement without the cover of a multilateral construct. It has been remarkable to watch their dissonance.

Last week President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held a phone call. At the conclusion of the call, Sheinbaum publicly asserted the reality the Canadians just refuse to accept.

MEXICO – Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters during her morning news briefing on Wednesday that her U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, is open to doing away with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) and replace it with individual trade deals with each country.

[…] “There might be revisions that create bilateral deals instead of involving the three countries because some things are more important between Mexico and the United Sates or between Canada and the United States,” said Sheinbaum. “Not everything has to be trilateral.”

Mexico’s president said the subject was brought up by Trump during a Tuesday phone conversation. […] According to Sheinbaum, her country is ready to consider possible changes. (read more)

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney finally started to realize President Trump was likely to ignore Canada and begin direct discussions with Sheinbaum. So, Carney went to Mexico to try and get assurances from Sheinbaum that Mexico would not proceed without Canadian interests in mind.

Essentially, Carney wanted Sheinbaum to be on his team.  However, as diplomatically noted in the phone call with President Trump, President Sheinbaum politely rejected the Canadian partnership. [Insert Trump’s position toward Mexican cartels as an overriding thought]

The Canadians have been talking to U.S. media looking for sympathetic ‘Orange man bad’ coverage.  However, within the contacts between Canadian government officials and U.S. corporate allies, the sentiment from team Trump is very clear:

“The key thing that has struck me, and I think it has struck all Canadians, is so many of these guys in the Trump administration, frankly, they just hate Canada,” said Brian Clow, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s deputy chief of staff who led Canada-U.S. affairs. {source}

It’s not hatred, it’s annoyance.

Years of compounding parasitic annoyances and sanctimonious, ‘holier-than-thou’ pontifications from the arrogant and uppity Canadian government.

The only time Canada has been honest with themselves and with President Trump was when Justin Trudeau was exiting office and admitted Canada cannot function without all of the one-way benefits it receives from the USA {GO DEEP}.

That’s it. That’s the only time Canada has ever been honest about the nature of the economic relationship.  A time when Trudeau had already quit and would not be around to deal with the consequences.  However, the level of Canadian arrogance is not only visible to President Trump, even the Japanese can see it.

Remember that very close relationship between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Trump.  That professional, personal and respectful relationship is going to become strategically important this year.

Japan’s economic and trade representatives have told the Canadians that if the USMCA is dissolved, and if Canada no longer has the same trade access current available in the trilateral format, then Japan would rethink its entire investment portfolio in Canada, specifically the auto sector.

In essence, specifically as it pertains to the auto industry, Japan is saying if the USMCA is gone, Japan may pull all their cross-border manufacturing out of Canada and transfer it to the United States.

Prime Minister Mark Carney was recently questioned about the statements from Japan and he waxed nonsensically [SEE HERE] about how Canada would use Chinese BYD electric autos to replace lost Toyota manufacturing.

It’s a hot mess for Canada and getting worse.

Last Friday, Canada’s worst nightmare began unfolding:

WASHINGTON – Today, U.S Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard announced the first round of bilateral discussions in preparation for the Joint Review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The ministers instructed negotiators to begin a scoping discussion on the necessary measures to ensure the benefits of the Agreement accrue primarily to the parties, including by reducing dependence on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and enhancing the security of North American supply chains.

Ministers expect negotiators to hold the first meeting the week of March 16 and meet regularly thereafter as part of the Joint Review. [LINK]

Right there, you can see the exact same thing that took place in early 2017, when President Trump began organizing a bilateral trade discussion with Mexico only, in advance of his preferred approach to dissolve NAFTA and use two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements to replace it.  USTR Robert Lighthizer was working with Mexico only.

USTR Jamieson Greer, the studious protege’ of Lighthizer, now has the task of organizing the USA and Mexico while delaying any substantive contact/discussions with Canada until President Trump is ready to drop the hammer.

I can assuredly say President Trump wants everything outlined and in place for a U.S-Mexico deal before he announces the dissolution (joint review withdrawal) to end the USMCA.

There is little to no chance President Trump wants to renew a trilateral trade agreement that allows Canada to keep exploiting their market access to the U.S. without accepting reciprocity.

Remember, Canada’s main export is energy, and Trump has diminished that leverage through the Venezuela operation. Perhaps another ‘ah-ha’ moment for deep weed walkers.  Yes, in addition to giving China a body blow, taking control of Venezuela oil and minerals also weakens the leverage position of Mark Carney.  Can you see it now?

Canada has one key card they can leverage, congress.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is counting on the UniParty in Washington DC to stand in his corner against President Donald Trump and block any attempt to end the USMCA.  However, this is not going to be a surprise to President Trump, because Justin Trudeau did the same thing in 2018 when he coordinated his approach toward NAFTA through then Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

As I have said with great eagerness, it is going to be a lot of fun to watch this unfold.

Mar 8 2026

Part II – Europe and China Have an Energy Problem


Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance 

When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine.  Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made.  However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development.

What follows below is a review of the current energy dynamic, specifically surrounding LNG, against the backdrop of the Iran war with a hindsight review of that previous discussion between Putin and Trump.

What most people are missing in their current analysis was something that took place immediately following that Alaska summit six months ago.  Something that did not make any sense until now. {GO DEEP PART I HERE}

Three days after that summit meeting, on August 18, 2025, Russia announced they were restarting Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG production facility.  Russia would be more than doubling their capacity to generate and store liquified natural gas (LNG).

It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time:

AUGUST 18, 2025 – Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 export facility, which is sanctioned by the United States, is coming back to life after a year of no activity and is looking for buyers in Asia.

[…] The U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, have effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.

[…] Last year, Russia started shipping LNG from its flagship Arctic LNG 2 project—but not to customers. The shipments were made from the Arctic project to floating storage units either in Russia or in European waters, as potential customers were unwilling to buy the sanctioned LNG. {SOURCE}

In August of 2025, Russia was essentially producing more LNG than they could sell into the available market.  Russia was storing the overproduction from Arctic-1 on floating storage units and slowly selling to countries that did not align with the sanctions, specifically China and some Asian buyers.  Then suddenly, after the Trump summit, Russia decides to bring Arctic-2 online and produce even more LNG.  You can see how this did not make sense.

If they could not even sell all the Arctic-1 LNG output, then why would Russia bring Arctic-2 LNG production online?

That was six months ago.

Suddenly, with the war in Iran being triggered, and with Qatar almost immediately announcing they were shutting down all LNG production, there are dozens of new markets for liquified natural gas. And that current LNG is now worth 50% more than it was when Russia inextricably decided to start producing and storing it.

Apply some hindsight to this timeline.  Did Russia know or discover something in August of 2025 that the world would not discover until six months later?

Russia’s behavior in increasing LNG production, then storing that LNG in strategic venues, during a time when there was no reasonable incentive to trigger an LNG output increase, would seem to answer that question in the affirmative.

One thing is certain, all of that previously produced LNG is now worth double what it was when Russia created it, and now the global market is scrambling to get it.

Here is where it gets really interesting….

In October 2025, do you remember me asking why President Trump decided to fly East, to go West to the ASEAN summit in Asia?  It just didn’t make sense.

Previously in 2017 when President Trump went to the ASEAN summit, he flew West; Airforce One refueled in Guam.  This time in 2025, a few weeks after the meeting with President Putin in Alaska, President Trump flew East, to go West.

Where did he refuel?

That’s correct.  President Trump refueled in Qatar, and during the ‘unexpected’ stop he met, yet again, with Qatari leadership.

♦ In May 2025 President Trump traveled to Qatar and had numerous and lengthy conversations, signing multiple strategic defense and trade deals.  ♦ In August 2025, President Trump meets with Vladimir Putin, who then begins ramping up production of LNG.  ♦ In October 2025, President Trump travels back to Qatar for a curious and unexpected visit.

Less than 36 hours after President Trump began “Operation Epic Fury” Qatar announces they are halting the production of LNG, and as a consequence the price of LNG jumped and a massive supply shift in global trade was created.

The Financial Times – […] The global battle for gas is underway, with Europe on the front lines. Since Wednesday, March 4, at least four liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers – factory ships with large, refrigerated tanks used to transport LNG over long distances – suddenly changed course. Initially headed for France, Belgium or Spain from Africa and the United States, they rerouted for Asia, according to data from the maritime analytics company Kpler. (read more)

MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) – Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, President Vladimir Putin warned on Wednesday, linking the possible decision to the European Union wanting to ban purchases of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas. (read more)

MOSCOW, March 6 (Reuters) – “Our companies are considering opportunities, ​without waiting for ​further restrictions from Europe, to conclude ‌new long-term contracts with ​our partners ​and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, ​the Philippines and ‌the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ​said.

Next announcement:

[SOURCE]

Six months ago, following a summit in Alaska with President Trump, President Vladimir Putin began producing and storing LNG at a scale and capacity that did not make sense.   Six months later, the now massive Russian inventory is worth twice as much as it was, AND the number of global buyers for the Russian LNG has exploded.

Meanwhile, “while China would suffer from oil outages, a Middle East crisis with disproportionate LNG outages might benefit the PRC. Natural gas accounts for a relatively small share of China’s primary energy consumption, the country enjoys substantial domestic production, and it can tap pipeline imports from Russia, Central Asia, and Myanmar. Significantly, many of the PRC’s competitors or rivals—the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are substantially or even wholly reliant on LNG imports for their natural gas consumption. Dutch TTF natural gas prices are up more than 50 percent against last Friday’s close, fueling concerns of an energy-induced inflationary spike.”

Where is President Trump scheduled to go next?

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) – The U.S. military campaign against Iran has put Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the back foot ahead of an expected summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, who for the second time in as many months has turned America’s military against one of Beijing’s close partners.

Trump is set to arrive in Beijing at the end of March following the ​U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a risky Caracas raid in January and the U.S.-Israeli air war that on Saturday killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former ‌leaders of two countries that have been major oil suppliers for China.

[…] Xi now faces the awkward prospect of feting Trump on the world stage or backing out of the proposed March 31 to April 2 ​meeting. Beijing has yet to confirm the summit dates. (read more)

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Huh, imagine that….

Mar 8 2026

President Trump Delivers Remarks at Shield of The Americas Summit


Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance 

[Full Backstory Here] – President Trump secured the border, began repatriation efforts, targeted narcotraffickers, confronted narco-terrorists, targeted Mexican drug cartel leadership, leveraged the DOJ to indict regional actors, pushed China out of control in the Panama Canal, took out Nicholas Maduro, took control of Venezuela oil production – both for the security of the U.S. and benefit of the Venezuelan people, removed the discounted oil benefit for China and reasserted stability in the Western hemisphere.

Then, with all that in place, he turned toward Iran…. but, proactively planned for a ‘Shield of the Americas Summit’ before the Iran operation began and scheduled it for today while Operation Epic Fury continues.  WATCH:

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Additional video of the arrival ceremony below.

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Mar 8 2026

Right Now, Russia is Like Amazon During COVID


Posted originally on CTH on March 7, 2026 | Sundance

We like the deep weeds, most do not.  The geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. confrontation with Iran are vast and complicated; however, to encapsulate one of the most interesting dynamics consider this ‘tldr’ statement to open the discussion with your friends: Right now, Russia is like Amazon during COVID-19.

What follows is not me saying President Trump and President Putin are holding nightly conversations, discussing steps or details, or even obliquely coordinating measures as Trump eliminates the generational threat posed by Iran.

However, I am saying that given the nature of all contact and communication between Trump and Putin, including extensive contacts by their representative emissaries, both Putin and Trump are well aware of each downstream effect from the Iranian confrontation.

Two days after the U.S./Israel began Operation Epic Fury, President Vladimir Putin said Russia should consider shutting down oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments to the EU in advance of the previously scheduled April deadline date when the EU would stop purchases.

♦ First, remember ‘force majeure’ contract nullification is in place for every producer, supplier and transporter in the middle east. Second, with shipments from the Gulf of Oman greatly reduced, LNG prices along with oil prices are increasing rapidly.  The result – ships filled with oil and LNG currently on the water are diverting in real time as international bidding for the content of the ships take place.

If Putin stops selling LNG to Europe, and Europe cannot get LNG from the Gulf of Oman, and China/Asia are LNG dependent (not exporting), then where is Europe going to get the LNG to replace what Russia will no longer provide?

Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.

[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context?  Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]

The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering.  Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.

Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position.  The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.

Answer: The United States, and to a lesser extent, Norway.

[SIDENOTE: now does President Trump continuously smacking Great Britain about shutting down their North Sea oil and gas operations take on context?  Geopolitical foresight? I digress. END SIDENOTE]

The European Commission’s decision to phase out and ultimately stop purchasing Russian oil/gas was made in 2025 prior to the Iran conflict triggering.  Europe’s replacement plan included increased LNG purchases from the U.S., Norway and middle east; the latter supply option is now void.

Europe’s decision to stop buying oil/gas from Russia puts them in a very precarious position.  The supply option for Europe is suddenly very limited, and Putin’s statement about stopping the flow early was obviously made with this understanding in mind.

[Go back to the sidenote above.  Without question President Trump already knew that an LNG supply restriction from the middle east would disproportionately hurt Europe.  Both President Trump and President Putin would understand this geopolitically obvious fact/reality.]

If Europe now has to purchase more LNG from America (at higher prices) President Trump’s leverage over Europe increases.  If both oil and LNG prices increase substantially, the price of oil/LNG currently on the water increases.

[SIDENOTE #2 – Previously the EU confiscated their holdings of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, value €210 billion held in Euroclear and another €50 billion from other G-7 countries; total €260 billion.  From those seized assets the EU created a €90 billion loan scheme to Ukraine with no repayment mechanism, because the EU predicts Russia will be forced to pay reparations for war and the negotiated settlement will deduct the €90 billion loan scheme from the balance.

Hungary, a Trump ally, is currently blocking the transfer of funds; but this payment scheme -created by the EU holding the assets- underpins why the EU will not permit the conflict to end without their approval. END SIDENOTE]

♦ To increase distribution of oil/gas “currently on the water” President Trump and Secretary Bessent have dropped the sanctions against Russian oil and LNG.  India and Southeast Asia, not coincidentally both with new U.S. free trade agreements, are suddenly bidding customers for previously sanctioned oil/gas.

Here it is important to note that ‘sanctioned’ oil and gas sales were done in the transactional currencies of the selling and buying country (see BRICS).  However non-sanctioned oil/gas, traditional OPEC market oil/gas products, are bought and sold using petrodollars.  If Russia is suddenly allowed to sell to OPEC market customers, then petrodollars will likely back the transaction.  Who wins, Putin (higher prices) & Trump (leverage and petrodollar).  Who loses, the EU.

Now, you know how much I love timelines to explain things…. So consider:

On August 15, 2025, Vladimir Putin and President Trump met in Alaska. One of the key points that followed the meeting was both Trump and Putin discussing a realignment of strategic interests surrounding energy development.

On August 18, 2025, three days after the Alaska meeting:

[SOURCE]

We do not believe in coincidences at this level.

We have been waiting.

Two days ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the easing of sanctions against Russian oil/LNG exports, specifically toward Asia in order to relieve some of the global supply constraints. {SOURCE} Yesterday, Moscow announced the redirection of Russian oil/LNG exports to Asia {SOURCE}.

“Our companies are considering opportunities, ​without waiting for ​further restrictions from Europe, to conclude ‌new long-term contracts with ​our partners ​and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, ​the Philippines and ‌the People’s Republic of China,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak ​said.

♦ Before February 28, European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) liquified natural gas traded around 35 euros per megawatt hour. As of March 6, TTF settled at 52.81 euros, a 50 percent monthly surge in the value of LNG to Europe.

Asian Japan Korea Marker (JKM) spot cargoes, the benchmark LNG price assessment, are trading above $20 per million BTU, with Bangladesh paying $28.28 for emergency deliveries.

The difference between Russia selling LNG to hostile Europe or selling Russian LNG to friendly Asia at post gulf crisis premiums is the widest it has been since the post pandemic (2022) ‘Build Back Better” energy crisis.

Russia supplied 13.8 million tonnes of LNG to Europe in 2025. The EU is phasing Russian gas out: short-term contracts banned beginning in April, full LNG ban by year end 2025, pipeline gas fully banned by 2027.

Russia is not fighting the EU bans; Russia is finding new customers at higher prices. Every tonne Russia redirects to Asia before the EU ban was scheduled to begin creates a potential long-term contract at a premium price with a buyer who will not legislate Russia out of the relationship.

Qatar and all shippers and suppliers declared force majeure after Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan facility on March 2, 2026.  Approximately 20% of global LNG went offline. Asian buyers are now bidding against Europe for every tanker “on the water.”  Russia has a lot of supply on the water and the ability to put a lot more into the market quickly.

Hormuz is closed, at least temporarily, through forced reinsurance withdrawal triggered by the U.K (Lloyds insurance market). And Russia, the one major energy exporter whose supply chains run through neither the Gulf nor the Strait, is the only non-western producer that can deliver to Asia without navigating a war zone.

Right now, Russia is to energy supplies for Asian customers as Amazon was to U.S. consumers during COVID.  Both selling to an isolated and captive customer base, who were regulated out of options.

SUMMARY: 

(1) Upon reelection President Trump told all U.S. energy providers to “drill baby drill” and maximize energy production. Trump then deregulated the industry for maximum efficiency: Secretaries Burgum (Interior), Wright (Energy) and Zeldin (EPA).

(2) Trump then meets with Putin in Alaska Aug 15, 2025.  Three days later, Aug 18, 2025, Putin restarts Russia’s flagship Arctic project, the LNG export facility via the Northern Route to Asia.

(3) President Trump then signs contracts with Finland for the urgent start of Arctic icebreaking ship manufacturing in the USA and emphasizes the prior conversation about taking over Greenland which infuriates the Danes and EU.

(4) President Trump then triggers the Venezuela operation, captures Nicholas Maduro and -in addition to other benefits- forms a new strategic oil development relationship with the interim Venezuela government.  Russia stays silent.

(5) President Trump then triggers Operation Epic Fury against Iran; completely changing the geopolitical landscape that surrounds energy partnerships.  Energy flows through the Gulf of Oman are impacted.

(6) President Trump then removes specific sanctions against Russia permitting Russian oil and LNG to be sold (in petrodollars) into the Asian market.  Meanwhile, the European Union is forced to increase LNG purchases from the United States.

Sure, it could all be just coincidence… or not.  One thing is certain, the FIVE-EYES opposition do not think all of this downstream benefit that flows to Russia and the USA is coincidental.  The FIVE-EYES opposition see all of this as a strategic realignment between the USA and Russia, and they are going to do everything in their power to stop it.

Now does this sudden news story make sense?

(Reuters) – “Russia is ready to divert oil to ​India to offset Middle East supply disruptions, with about 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude in vessels near Indian waters and able ‌to arrive within weeks, an industry source with direct knowledge told Reuters.  The source declined to say where the non‑Russian fleet cargoes were originally headed but said they could deliver to India within weeks, giving refiners rapid relief.”

There are trillions at stake!

Mar 7 2026

President Trump: ‘No Deal with Iran Except Unconditional Surrender’


Posted originally on CTH on March 6, 2026 | Sundance | 162 Comments

The U.S. and Israel have been targeting deep underground missile sites within Iran, with strong success.  Iranian counterstrikes, missile & drone launches are down 80 to 90 percent according to Pentagon officials.

Additionally, the Israeli military has reported they dismantled an underground bunker system in Tehran used by regime leadership.  Originally the bunker was used by slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei underneath the leadership compound in central Tehran.  The bunker was targeted by 50 Israeli fighter jets and subsequently destroyed.

President Trump announced via Truth Social that he will not seek any terms with Iran other than unconditional surrender.

[SOURCE]

Meanwhile, in a somewhat predictable move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced the U.S. will lift some sanctions on Russian oil exports in order to mitigate shortfalls.  India will be permitted to purchase additional Russian oil for use in their refineries.  The gasoline end products will then be sold into the market.

BESSENT: “President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded.

To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.

India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of U.S. oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage. (more)

Strategically, it has always appeared that President Trump wanted to remove the sanctions against Russia as part of a negotiated peace deal with Ukraine.  However, the intransigence of Ukraine and the EU had blocked that move.  I would anticipate at some date the U.S. will use the opportunity of global need as a justification to permit more Russian oil to be sold into Western markets.

This approach will not make Ukraine or the EU happy; however, it could be structured to put petrodollars back in control of Russian oil sales.  That approach would further weaken China and the BRICS assembly who have been purchasing energy products in domestic exchange currencies.

The U.S., Venezuela and Russia could increase output and replace the missing oil production from the middle east region. This would stabilize markets.  Although, the politics of that approach would face stiff opposition.

What seems very likely is that Bessent, Rubio and Trump have a plan.   If there’s one person in U.S. politics who understands how to use oil to financially mitigate any geopolitical impacts, it’s President Trump.

Keep an eye on Russia.  Ignore the western media narratives and look for direct source information on Russian oil activity.

Let them work and just keep watching

Mar 6 2026

Hemispheric Boss Level: Epic – Venezuela Edition


Posted originally on CTH on March 5, 2026 | Sundance

Sometimes you have to sip coffee slowly, while taking in the landscape.

About a month ago President Donald J Trump bombed Caracas, engaged the U.S. military with a direct firefight against Venezuela military & security forces, then snatched regime dictator Nicholas Maduro out of the country to face criminal charges in the United States.

Yesterday, Maduro’s replacement, President Delcy Rodriquez, stood on the steps to the Venezuela presidential office and publicly thanked Interior Secretary Doug Bergum for the kindness and support of President Donald Trump.

That reality represents a level of hemispheric ‘ultimate boss’ that boggles the mind.  But wait, it gets better. There’s video (prompted):

Before going further to current events, let us remind ourselves of a few details.

Sandwiched between the Venezuela Maduro operation and the recent Operation Epic Fury in Iran, approximately three weeks ago, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth convened a gathering in Washington of all the defense chiefs and senior military officials from 34 Western Hemisphere countries.

As most of you will remember, securing the national security of the entire Western Hemisphere, was outlined in the national defense strategy document [SEE HERE] released by President Trump. In addition to setting the priorities for the United States focus, the report details the Trump administration perspective on the world as broken down into specific regions.  The report is a brutally honest review of the current state of geopolitical benefits, risks and threats as they pertain to vital U.S. interests. The report outlines a critically renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere.

Now, back to Secretary Bergum’s visit.

At the same time as Interior Secretary Bergum is meeting with key government and private sector partners to discuss strategic mineral development (ie. deconflict dependency on China via independent development), oil production for U.S. hemispheric security (Iran output offsets), Venezuela announced the transfer of 1,000 kilos (more than a ton) of gold reserves for sale on the U.S. market {SOURCE}.

Venezuela needs stability.  Hemispheric Boss President Trump wants Venezuela to have stability.  Venezuela needs dollars and both the coordinated sale of Venezuela oil and Venezuela gold (47 tonnes in strategic reserve) will provide those dollars to retain stability and seed economic growth projects.

This coordinated approach secures the economic future of Venezuela and simultaneously secures the energy security of the Western Hemisphere while geopolitical operations continue in other regions, like the confrontation with Iran.

In essence, President Trump is isolating the Western Hemisphere from collateral economic damage that is likely to happen as the U.S. begins to take down the leading sponsors of global conflict.  As things are in flux, the close and controlled partnership with Venezuela can offset/mitigate a lot of chaos.

While the ongoing Iran confrontation happens in the middle east, and in combination with the priority of the National Security Strategy, President Trump then convenes a meeting of hemispheric leaders in Florida this weekend.

The Latin-America meeting in Doral is being called the “Shield of the Americas Summit.”  The Trump administration has made it a priority to assert dominance over the Western Hemisphere, where China previously built influence through massive loans and expansive trade.

Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced President Trump will host heads of state from “Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and maybe some others as well.”

So, let’s put it all together.

President Trump proactively secured the border, targeted narcotraffickers, confronted narcoterrorists, targeted Mexican drug cartel leadership, leveraged the DOJ to indict regional actors, pushed China out of control in the Panama Canal, took out Nicholas Maduro, took control of Venezuela oil production – both for the security of the U.S. and benefit of the Venezuelan people, removed the discounted oil benefit for China and reasserted stability in the Western hemisphere.

Then, with all that in place, he turned toward Iran…. but, proactively planned for a ‘Shield of the Americas Summit’ before the Iran operation began and scheduled it while Operation Epic Fury continues.

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones.  That outline and timeline is not supposition; it is what took place.

And, yeah, we just watched “interim” Venezuela President Delcy Rodriquez react to what she is witnessing happening all around her.

Accepting all of this, I would not be in the least surprised to see President Rodriquez in Doral this weekend.

[SOURCE]

This my friends, is a level of strategic boss maneuvering beyond anything we have ever witnessed before.

[…] – “Interior Secretary Doug Burgum landed in Venezuela on Wednesday to begin talks about a potential rare earth minerals partnership, just weeks after the U.S. arrested former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

FOX Business exclusively joined Burgum on the trip. President Donald Trump‘s administration views Venezuela’s untapped resources as a potential alternative to relying on China for critical minerals, FOX Business has learned.

While in Venezuela, Burgum will also help expand the relationship between U.S. oil companies and the Venezuelan government. The secretary will meet with the current Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez to continue the growing relationship between the two countries.

Burgum is the first member of Trump’s Cabinet to leave the country since the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Saturday.” (read more)

Mar 6 2026

China Halts Refiners from Exporting Diesel and Gasoline


Posted originally on CTH on March 5, 2026 | Sundance 

An interesting reaction from Beijing highlights an evaluation of risk from the lack of oil flowing from Iran.

According to most evaluated data, China was buying more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. That’s according to data from 2025 as analyzed by Kpler and published in January by Reuters.

Iranian oil always had limited buyers due to U.S. sanctions. However, China purchased on average 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year, according to Kpler. That represented about 13.4% of the total 10.27 million bpd of oil it imported by sea.

With President Trump previously cutting of discounted oil from Venezuela, two things unfolded.  First, the Venezuela oil was no longer sold with non-petrodollar currencies; Venezuela oil is now being sold on the standard oil market.  Secondly, with the Venezuela oil disrupted China would become even more dependent on Iranian oil shipments if they wanted to retain the discounted rate.

How big is the financial difference?  According to Reuters, “Iranian Light crude has traded at around $8 to $10 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China since December.” … “That means Chinese refiners save about $8 to $10 a barrel if they buy Iranian Light rather than non-sanctioned oil.”

Additionally, as noted before Operation Epic Fury began, “Iran has a record amount of oil on the water, equivalent to around 50 days of output, as China has bought less because of sanctions and Tehran seeks to protect its supplies from the risk of U.S. strikes, Kpler said.”

Buying discounted oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia resulted in billions of dollars saved by China.  The only production venue not currently disrupted would be purchases from Moscow.  This increases the dependency, but the purchase price may no longer carry any discounted value, at least not at the previous rate.

India was purchasing a significant amount of Russian oil for its own refinery use and sale back into the global market. China and India would now be bidding for what is likely a more valuable Russian export.  No more discounts put the “teapot” refining operations in Shandong, China, into a squeeze. This also highlights the decision by China to limit refined exports.

[VIA NBC] – China’s government has told the country’s largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts the arrival of crude from one of the world’s largest producing regions.

Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, met refinery executives and verbally called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named, as the discussions are not public.

The refiners were asked to stop signing new contracts and to negotiate the cancellation of already-agreed shipments. The people said. An exception was made for jet and bunker fuel held in bonded storage and supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, they added.

[…] China has a vast refining sector, but much of its production is funnelled to serve domestic demand, meaning it is not a critical supplier. Across Asia, it ranks third for seaborne exports, behind South Korea and Singapore. However, Beijing’s precautionary curbs reflect efforts across the import-dependent region to prioritise domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens. (read more)

Mar 5 2026

Importers, Exporters and Producers Trigger Force Majeure Notifications for Gulf LNG Shipments


Posted originally on CTH on March 4, 2026 | Sundance

Force Majeure is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, epidemic, or sudden legal change prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract.

People would be well advised to wait a few days when announcements are made before jumping to immediate conclusions. The announcement by Qatar Energy of a force majeure notification did not originate from Qatar’s inability to produce contractual LNG supplies…..

[SOURCE]

…. two days prior to this announcement, India’s top gas importer Petronet LNG Ltd issued a force majeure notice to Qatar Energy and local buyers because its LNG tanker ships were unable to reach the Ras Laffan load port due to the crisis in the Middle East.  Without ships arriving to take the LNG Qatar Energy cannot keep producing.

Qatar Energy operates 14 liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains with a total annual production capacity of 77 million tonnes {SOURCE}.  If ships don’t reach the terminals, there’s no need for Qatar Energy to keep pumping and liquifying from well heads.  It’s a downstream issue.

Bahrain made the same announcement for their refined aluminum exports {SOURCE}. Indonesian company Chandra Asri made the same announcement for petrochemicals {SOURCE}. Chevron made the same announcement two days ago after Israel shut down the Leviathan natural gas field {SOURCE}.  Thus, we see the ramifications for the entire region around the Iran conflict zone and the downstream destinations (Asia and Europe) for energy products therein.

Dutch shipping company Maersk has also suspended operation for cargo container ships cancelling all bookings between the Indian subcontinent—India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka—and the Upper Gulf. {SOURCE} German shipping group Hapag-Lloyd made the same decision.

These are not decisions being made due to maritime insurance or reinsurance rates or availability. These are decisions being made by private corporations that go beyond their actuarial risk.  They simply don’t want to operate in a region where there is the potential for loss of life or cargo.

This is not solely an insurance issue and people should pause before offering analysis that only considers the financial aspect.

MAERSK -Maersk announced on Wednesday that it is temporarily suspending most cargo reservations in and out of Iraq as security worries mount throughout the Gulf.

The business said that the ban applies to shipments involving many regional nations, including the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

Maersk said that the measure would stay in effect until further notice. The firm did not disclose any more information on how long the disruption will endure or the scope of the operating effect.

The decision comes as increased tensions and military action in the Gulf area have prompted worries about the safety of maritime routes and logistical operations, hurting commerce flows via many Gulf nations. (LINK)

Susan Kokinda and the Lyndon LaRouche network give their perspective on the British reaction to the U.S. strikes against Iran.  The analysis has some value from a review of the historic relationship of the British imperialist policy toward matters of foreign entanglement and the control mechanisms that have historically flowed from the U.K

As a consequence of British government policy much of the Kokinda analysis accurately touches on the root cause of U.K response. However, the emphasis on the modern UK government as the lead of a global control network is not always as severe or complicated as the Lyndon LaRouche network would espouse.

Prior to visiting the White House, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz had just returned from China and gave a press conference in Germany saying Germans need to “work harder” and “ditch the four-day week” to compete.

Merz visit to Shenzhen shocked him, and he is right to be rattled by the cold indifference of Chairman Xi Jinping.  This was Merz first visit to meet Chairman Xi in person.  A cold and productivity focused Merz just met an even colder and more productivity focused industrial giant.

Merz met the industrial dragon and returned home visibly shook.  The Chancellor thought he represented an apex industrial nation. However, he experienced something far more industrial than he ever imagined.

As noted by Nina Schick: “Take Germany’s famous auto industry, 5% of GDP, 800,000 jobs, but losing ground fast. VW’s market share in China has plunged from 24% to 15% in four years. Chinese brands doubled their European market share in 2025 and now outsell Mercedes on the continent. Germany lost 120,000 industrial jobs last year. And cars are just the most visible example.

But it’s not just competition. Germany has some of the highest industrial energy prices in the world, nearly triple what the US pays. After shutting down nuclear and losing cheap Russian gas via Nord Stream, Berlin built its first LNG terminal in 194 days. Now 96% of the LNG arriving at those terminals comes from the US. (That LNG is even more important in light of events in the Gulf….)

The US is Germany’s second-largest trading partner (€240 billion in two-way trade last year.) German auto exports to the US fell 18% in 2025 under tariffs. Merz cannot afford a trade war with Washington. Today, he watched Trump threaten to cut off all trade with Spain, while sitting next to him in the Oval Office. He backed him up.

Now look at how Merz is positioning on Iran. Spain blocked the US from using its bases. Sánchez called the strikes “unjustified.” Starmer hesitated before eventually allowing UK bases for “defensive” strikes. Merz is the first EU leader invited to the White House for a tête-à-tête with Trump.

Days before, he said legal assessments under international law “achieve relatively little” and that now is “not the time to lecture allies.” Compare that to Sánchez insisting Spain’s agreement with the US “must operate within the framework of international law.” From a German chancellor, Merz’s position is seismic.

And none of this is separable from home. Germany’s economy is in its fourth year of industrial contraction. An aging population, a shrinking workforce, sky-high welfare costs, and an immigration debate that’s handing the AfD seats on a plate. Merz needs the US relationship, because it’s one of the levers he has left to keep the economy blowing in the right direction.

All of this points to a Germany that’s understood its critical vulnerabilities and is pursuing a hard-nosed realpolitik in response. To stay industrially competitive, they need American LNG. They need access to US compute and critical hardware. They need EU member states to spend on defense: something Trump has been remarkably effective at unleashing.

The result is an astonishingly pro-Trump German chancellor. In a country where only about 15% of the population views Trump favorably. The question isn’t whether Merz has realistically assessed Germany’s vulnerabilities (he’s starting to see the bigger picture). It’s whether this wins or loses him votes at home. And on that, my guess is it won’t. {LINK}

Fredrich Merz thought he was an apex predator, until he met Xi Jinping.

Suddenly, Merz looks at the unpredictable Trump, an apex predator who swims around Chairman Xi as if it’s just another boring Tuesday, with an entirely new perspective.

Chancellor Merz realizes that this rather unorthodox American President likely possesses the only qualified skillset that can deal with a REAL apex predator like Xi.

Fredrich Merz dismounts his EU high horse and uppishness turns into respect.

Mar 4 2026

President Trump Announces U.S. Economic Boycott of Spain During Meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz


Posted originally on CTH on March 3, 2026 | Sundance 

President Trump holds a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office.  After brief remarks of mutual appreciation, President Trump and Chancellor Merz responded to questions from the assembled press pool.

Chancellor Merz expressed support for the objective of eliminating the regime threat from Iran.  President Trump notes at the beginning how Iran is targeting civilian targets in the region and generating even more support from the Gulf states for the USA.

When asked about the British and Spanish refusal to support U.S. military logistics and deployment, President Trump let the media be aware he is not happy with the position of Spain and the U.K.  President Trump also announced [11:00 of video] an economic embargo of trade with Spain as an outcome of their position.

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Feb 26 2026

Cutting Through the SCOTUS Tariff Fog, USTR Jamieson Greer Discusses Baseline Tariff Reset Shifts and Reciprocity Tariffs


Posted originally on CTH on February 25, 2026 | Sundance 

The Supreme Court tariff ruling has created the need for U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to modify the baseline tariff approach with the approvals of President Trump.

The baseline tariffs are being reset to 10% with upward adjustment to 15% as planned.  The reciprocal tariffs will not require any substantive modifications as most of the Free Trade Agreements have been cemented with reciprocity tariffs as part of the negotiated deals.

USTR Greer appears on Bloomberg to clarify the current situation and provide some information as to the transitional baseline tariffs as now modified. Additionally, and importantly, Greer begins discussing the USMCA review and his acceptance that President Trump is openly questioning the value for us. Greer notes Mexico and Canada being used as import hubs to avoid tariffs is a big issue. WATCH:

Section 232 [Steel and Aluminum examples] of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C. §1862, as amended) authorizes the President to impose trade restrictions—such as a tariff or quota—if the Secretary of Commerce determines, following an investigation, that imports of a good “threaten to impair” U.S. national security. {SOURCE}

Section 301 tariffs are a trade enforcement mechanism established under the Trade Act of 1974. They allow the U.S. government to impose tariffs on imports from countries that are found to be engaging in unfair trade practices. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) conducts investigations to determine if a country is violating trade agreements, and if so, it can impose tariffs as a corrective measure {SOURCE}

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows the U.S. president to impose tariffs of up to 15% to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits. This authority can be exercised without prior congressional approval for a limited duration of 150 days. After this period, any tariffs must be extended by Congress. {SOURCE}

*FYI, there is a lot of distracting noise in the various social media platforms about internecine MAGA battles and ego-driven points of specific interest.  CTH chooses to focus energy and attention on the substantive policy issues that will generate substantive policy outcomes for America.