Tag Archives: Trade Deal

Jan 1 2026

Canada Trying to Find Trade Partners


Posted originally on CTH on December 31, 2025 | Sundance

A recent article in Politico quoting several cabinet members of Prime Minister Mark Carney reflects a particular reality of the problem their economy will face in 2026.

It appears that Canadian government officials have finally recognized the Trump administration plans to dissolve the USMCA or what Canada calls CUSMA next year.  With that reality they have a big problem.

Mexico has been working throughout the year to initiate economic policies in alignment with the United States.  However, structurally and politically this is an alignment that is impossible for Canada to do.  Like many contracting European countries, the economic policies of Canada are centered around their climate change agenda and green energy goals.

For the past few decades Canada bought into the carbon scam and enacted climate change goals into law for carbon pricing, alternative energy production, industry and manufacturing costs.  These mechanisms to control “climate change” are nuts in the big picture.

In order for Canada to position their economy to be in alignment with the rest of North America (USA and Mexico), Carney would have to reverse years of legislated rules and regulations.  That is not going to happen, and Canada will always be at a disadvantage because of it.

(Politico) – […] It’s a moment of existential crisis for Canada, a senior Carney government official told POLITICO. Waiting out the Trump administration isn’t an option, the official said, arguing that what’s happening in the United States reflects a generational shift — not a temporary disruption — and that returning to a policy of closer integration with America would be foolish. (more)

With three quarters of their economic production tied to exports into the USA, and with the USMCA likely to be dissolved in favor of a bilateral trade agreement, Canada now has to find other markets for its products or lower all the trade barriers currently in place.  Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to find alternative markets.

Carney has looked toward Europe, but that is a closed trade bloc difficult to engage.  Carney has looked to southeast Asia, but that is an export driven market with limited capabilities to import costly western products.  Carney has looked to Japan and China, but on scale there’s little to be gained.

The question is, where can Canada send its products if not to the USA.   The brutally honest answer is nowhere.  There just isn’t any other market, or combination of markets, who could replace the consumer base of the USA.  Canada is refusing to admit this reality and 2026 is going to be a harsh awakening for the Canadian people.

The USMCA is currently facilitating around 60% of Canada’s exports into the United States.   Cancel that agreement and suddenly 100% of all Canada-U.S. trade is on the table for negotiations.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and President Trump are going to put the squeeze on Mark Carney and every province within Canada as a consequence of their intransigence.

[…] Two-thirds of Canada’s economy is powered by trade, and roughly three-quarters of its exports flow to the U.S. It’s a C$1.3 trillion annual relationship that was celebrated on both sides of the border in good times but has become a source of leverage for America, especially with the Trump administration expected to continue squeezing Canadian industries with tariffs.

Europe is Carney’s top priority for deepening existing free-trade relationships. But closer integration with the European Union is a long game, and Canada has no interest in joining the bloc, according to the official, pushing Ottawa to explore other regions.

“Trade diversification is nothing new. People have talked about this for decades,” Sidhu said. “The difference here is other countries’ willingness to look at Canada as a reliable, stable trading partner,” he added, saying Trump has had a bigger influence on Ottawa’s strategy than any difference in trade philosophy between Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney.

Canada’s governing Liberal Party is under new management, forcing a cohort of Trudeau-era lawmakers to quickly learn the language of economics to make an impression with the new boss. Social issues have been demoted — as have brown shoes.

Cabinet ministers are competing to establish themselves as closers to meet Carney’s high expectations. The result is overlapping mandates that sow confusion over who owns what.

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc leads a new portfolio created under Carney, who sliced out North America from the international trade minister’s purview. (read more)

Dec 30 2025

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Gives Strong Recap of President Trump Trade Policy


Posted originally CTH on December 29, 2025 | Sundance

Outlining why there literally is not enough time for a lengthy dual-track legislative trade policy to be constructed, Ambassador Jamieson Greer gives a great encapsulation of the urgency behind the trade policies, tariffs and negotiations between the U.S. and trade partners.

If President Donald Trump did not win in 2024, another four years of parasitic trade policy would have crossed the Rubicon of U.S. manufacturing recovery.   The urgently applied tariff strategy gave the administration breathing room to reestablish domestic economic growth.  USTR Greer and President Trump are now fine-tuning the tariffs country by country, sector by sector, to achieve ultimate economic benefit.  WATCH:

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Dec 20 2025

Big Pharma Takes a Knee – Agreement to Deliver Low-Cost Pharmaceuticals to America


Posted originally on CTH on December 19, 2025 | Sundance 

The look on the faces of the CEOs representing some of the biggest drug manufacturers tells the story. Against the stern backdrop of collapsed resistance, President Trump announces the results of his “most favored nation” policy demand toward major pharmaceutical companies.

President Trump delivers remarks from the oval office, outlining the result of demanding pharmaceutical companies give the same pricing structure to USA medication users as they do to the rest of the world. In addition to noting how his administration has begun reducing the number of federal workers, President Trump announces that 100% of all job growth is in the private sector.

Nine, visibly strained, drug manufacturers were present as President Trump makes the announcement of their new drug pricing structure. Even the buckets of winnamins will be lower priced. WATCH:

A large part of healthcare costs overall are the costs of prescription medication.  President Trump is putting major pressure on all of the drug manufacturers to give the lowest price to the USA.  “As of today, 14 out of 17 pharmaceutical companies have agreed to drastically lower drug prices for American patients,” President Trump noted.

Dec 14 2025

Chinese Auto Sales to Europe Expected to Top 700,000 Units Sold This year


Posted originally on CTH on December 13, 2025 | Sundance |

The geopolitical baseline for Europe is often determined by the economics of their situation.  In 2024 approximately 408,000 cars from China were sold in Europe.  For 2025 that number is now expected to exceed 700,000 units despite tariffs.

Previously we highlighted the short-term ramifications of the European Union push to force the sale of electric vehicle (EVs) upon the consumer base.  {SEE HERE} EU automakers unable to meet the compliance goal began purchasing carbon credits to avoid stiff EU fines.  Many of those carbon credits were purchased from Chinese automakers, who then turned around and started using the extra EU revenue to discount Chinese cars sold in Europe.

In essence, EU car companies started subsiding China to undercut their own market. An outcome of the EU chasing the ridiculous green energy project throughout the European free trade zone.

Now reports are beginning to surface of how the non-EV segment of the industry is being lost to less expensive Chinese hybrid autos that: (1) are much cheaper, (2) not bad in quality, and (3) are not subject to the 35% EV tariff rate.

The EU tariff applied to gasoline powered cars or hybrids from China is 10%.  That tariff is not enough to stop the imports. The Chinese hybrid autos are substantially less than European car brands, and there’s no financial incentive for China to build auto plants in the EU zone especially when you consider the EU is subsidizing those cars by purchasing carbon credits.

When analyzed from a cost and consequence, the entire EU dynamic toward car companies is a little funny.  However, for Germany this is a serious issue, and with the German industrial economy already stagnant – every impact to their auto industry only makes the situation worse.

When you overlay the big picture of their expensive “green energy” costs, the EU find themselves in an unescapable downward spiral.  Quite literally, all commonsense seems to have been lost in their green energy chase.

By focusing on energy targets, specifically by trying to force production of European electric vehicles that are not favored by European car purchasers, the EU is shrinking their economy to the benefit of Beijing exploitation.

EUROPE – This year, sales of Chinese-made cars across the EU, UK, and EFTA are expected to exceed 700,000. This is up significantly from the 408,000 that were sold in 2024.

The surge comes despite the fact that additional tariffs of up to 35 percent, on top of the existing 10 percent import duty, were instated in November of last year.

Rather than dampen demand, the tariffs have simply redirected it. While the added fees specifically target EVs and extended-range electric vehicles, hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) models remain subject only to the base 10 percent tariff.

Predictably, Chinese brands have leaned into that category, shifting their European strategy toward models that sidestep the higher costs.

Thanks to significantly lower production costs, up to 30 percent cheaper than in Europe, it doesn’t make financial sense for these brands to relocate production just to serve a tariff-guarded market. Instead, they’re exploiting the gap. (read more)

The only Chinese auto plant current in the works for construction is in Hungary, not coincidentally the country with the most common sense as it applies to energy costs. BYD (Build Your Dream) is building a plant in Hungary expected to manufacture 150,000 units/yr.

While most EVs are generally best for short duration use, the Chinese hybrid vehicles are not a terrible build quality if you are an auto purchaser that changes vehicles frequently.  We dodged a bullet by electing President Trump in 2024, because Joe Biden (Blackrock) had positioned the North American auto industry toward a similar fate as currently happening in Europe.

Three Chinese automakers were going to spend $5 billion in Mexico creating new EV and hybrid vehicles destined for the U.S. market. However, Beijing abandoned those plans as soon as President Trump won the election.

The Europeans and leftists in the U.S. scoffed at President Trump for rejecting the premise behind the Green New Deal, which included electric car mandates.  Those same Europeans are now watching as their industrial economy collapses segment by segment; taken over by far cheaper Chinese industrial outputs.

Dec 9 2025

President Trump Holds a Roundtable Discussion on Agriculture and Farm Support


Posted originally on CTH on December 8, 2025 | Sundance 

President Trump holds a roundtable discussion with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and various farm state senators as he outlines $12 billion in support and subsidy for American farmers.

With energy prices lowered, the costs for natural gas, fertilizer, diesel and gasoline prices have fallen; however, food costs have remained high.  President Trump announced with Brooke Rollins an initiative to help support American farmers with the intended objective to lower production costs from the field that will hopefully transfer to the fork.

Secretary Rollins and President Trump announce a $12 billion bridge subsidy to assist farmers with proactive planning for the 2026 planting season.  The money is coming from revenue generated by tariffs, and row crop farming will be the first subsidies delivered.  WATCH (media questions begin at 31:40):

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Dec 6 2025

USTR Jamieson Greer Outlines U.S. Trade Strategy, Free Trade Agreements and Trade Policy


Posted originally on CTH on December 6, 2025 | Sundance | 

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is questioned about the Trump administration strategy or lack thereof. “Yes, there’s a strategy,” Greer says in this new interview. “First of all, you don’t change 70 years of trade policy overnight. And second of all, when some people say, ‘Oh, well, this is chaos. What’s your strategy?’, what they really want to know is can we go back to how it was before? And that’s not going to happen.”

The interview is in an audio file presented by Politico and shared below. This is some really good information on the various free trade agreements and the regions represented by some of our largest trade partners. Well worth listening to as you go about your day and travels today. Embed below:

USTR Greer notes how the tariffs are being used, the upcoming Supreme Court decision, the need for congress to codify the tariff regime in legislation and the various regional strategies for the deployment of countervailing duties.

Dec 5 2025

Canadian Media Catch On, U.S Trade Rep Jamieson Greer Says Trump Likely to Exit the USMCA (CUSMA)


Posted originally on CTH on December 5, 2025 | Sundance

In the world of Trumpian geopolitical trade stuff, three issues are very interesting to watch. (1) The strategic reset with Russia which could break the official western construct of financial control. (2) The proactive and defensive positioning of Mexico (desperate attempt to retain economic attachment), and (3) the certain dissolution of the USMCA what Canadians call CUSMA.

Canadian media are starting to realize something we have talked about on these pages for years; President Trump intends to end the USMCA because the USMCA was used as a fracture point to eliminate NAFTA.

Wall Street, the U.S. Congress, the massive K-Street lobbying network around the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the entire political apparatus of business and industry would never permit the end to NAFTA; too many trillions at stake. So, President Trump replaced NAFTA with the interim USMCA, which was better but factually more useful in elimination of the original.

Now, as we have discussed by highlighting President Trump’s no-so-subtle words on the issue, the Canadian media is realizing the USMCA will be dissolved in favor of two independently negotiated bilateral trade agreements; one with Canada and one with Mexico.

(CTV) – U.S. President Donald Trump could decide next year to withdraw from the Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA), Politico reported on Thursday, citing U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

“The president’s view is he only wants deals that are a good deal. The reason why we built a review period into CUSMA was in case we needed to revise it, review it or exit it,” Greer told Politico’s White House bureau chief Dasha Burns in a podcast episode that airs Friday.

Greer also raised the idea of negotiating separately with Canada and Mexico and dividing the agreement into two parts in the podcast, adding that he spoke with Trump about that possibility just this week.

The White House, Canadian and Mexican governments did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

Trump on Wednesday said that the CUSMA agreement – which faces an upcoming review- will either be left to expire or another deal will be worked out.

The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and was negotiated during Trump’s first term as president, requires the three countries to hold a joint review after six years. (link)

I have talked to a lot of Canadians on the issues of economics and trade. As a result, I can say with complete sincerity that not since the COVID-19 examples of New Zealand (lockdowns) and Australia (vaxx), has a nation engaged in such a level of mass cognitive dissonance as the govt of Canada on the issue of economics and trade – in the past few years. It is stunning.

To understand the reality of the situation Here’s an IN-DEPTH LINK. Apparently, few really understand the full scope of the issues.

For those who have followed along with the U.S-Canada trade positioning, the current status of conflict between the Trump administration and the government of Canada is not surprising.  {GO DEEP}

Going all the way back to the replacement of NAFTA, with the USMCA, President Trump always said he did not favor multilateral trade deals with multiple countries; instead, he preferred bilateral free trade agreements.

Some people have construed the bilateral preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements.

While the outcome of the Trump approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.

As a result, the USMCA -or CUSMA as said in Canada- is not in alignment with a bilateral free trade agreement, and the conflicted differences between trade with Mexico and trade with Canada are an outcome of this dynamic.  The solution is simply to eliminate the multilateral in favor of the bilateral approach.  This is the objective of President Trump as expressed.

There is zero leverage on the Canadian side of the trade negotiation, zero.

There is nothing that Canada provides to the USA that the USA cannot create, produce or secure independently.  The nature of the economic relationship is entirely lopsided, with the USA getting nothing in return for the massive outflow of U.S. dollars (USD).

Our trade relationship with Canada is based on the U.S. government simply liking our northern neighbor and giving them terms and conditions for their economy to benefit from proximity.  Take the friendship out of the equation, which is key to understanding the polar political ideology of the two nations, and there is simply not much reciprocal trade benefit.

Take away the soft wood lumber, we have our own.  Take away the oil, we have multitudes of domestic production options. Take away the minerals, again we have both our own unused capacities and enhanced trade agreements with other Free Trade Agreement nations.

Then look at the possibility of a strategic U.S-Russia economic alliance, and all those contracted icebreakers take on new meaning.

Some may think this is an overly harsh view of our Canadian friends.  However, the Canadian majority believes in climate change and unfortunately leftist politicians control their industrial economy.  Canada is in the middle of a mass formation psychosis. Canada needs to get hard, dispatch cultural Maxism and put deliberate men in charge.

A Canadian conservative is essentially a politically correct Mitt Romney; not strong enough to make a difference.

The best thing President Trump can do for our Canadian friends is to help strategic regions while their overall economy collapses around them.  Then we hope guys like this surface to rebuild the Great White North.

Dec 4 2025

President Trump Cancels Joe Biden CAFE Standards Against Auto Industry


Posted originally on CTH on December 3, 2025 | Sundance 

In an effort to return common sense, practicality and affordability to the American consumer base for automobiles, President Trump announced the elimination of Joe Biden’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for manufactured cars and trucks.

Under the auspices of the “Green New Deal”, the Biden administration mandated ridiculous quotas for EVs and demanded lower power combustible engines, or pay a climate change tax. These CAFE standards resulted in a surcharge for large vehicles, large engine autos and SUVs, and essentially bifurcated the auto consumer into those who could afford to pay for efficiency and stability, and those who could not.

“We’re officially terminating Joe Biden’s ridiculously burdensome, horrible actually, CAFE standards that impose expensive restrictions and all sorts of problems, gave all sorts of problems to automakers,” President Trump announced from the Oval Office. “It put tremendous upward pressure on car prices, combined with the insane electric vehicle mandate. Biden’s burdensome regulations helped cause the price of cars to soar more than 25%,” President Trump said. WATCH:

(Via White House) – DELIVERING A WIN FOR AMERICAN FAMILIES AND AUTOMAKERS: Today, President Donald J. Trump is delivering major relief to American families by resetting the Biden Administration’s costly and unlawful Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

President Trump is returning CAFE standards to levels that can actually be met with conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles. The Biden Administration standards imposed unrealistic fuel economy targets that effectively resulted in an electric vehicle (EV) mandate.

The Trump Administration’s reset of the CAFE standards ensures the program’s fidelity to the legal restrictions set forth by Congress.

The Biden standards broke the law by going far beyond the requirements that were mandated by Congress when it created the CAFE program.

SAVING AMERICAN FAMILIES MONEY: Today’s action represents an enormous win in response to the cost-of-living increases imposed on the economy by the Biden Administration.

The Biden Administration created extraordinarily stringent fuel economy standards for passenger cars and trucks, set at such aggressive levels that they were impossible to meet with available technologies for gas cars.

The Biden standards would have compelled widespread shifts to EVs that American consumers did not ask for, accompanied by significant cost-of-living increases. Since EVs are so expensive to build, automakers must sell them at a loss and make up the difference by significantly raising the sticker price of gas cars.

If President Trump had done nothing, the Biden standards would have raised the average cost of a new car by nearly $1,000, relative to the cost under the standards announced today.

President Trump’s actions will save American families $109 billion in total over the next five years.
By helping more Americans buy newer, safer vehicles, this reset is projected to save more than 1,500 lives and prevent nearly a quarter-million serious injuries through 2050.

MARKING A CRITICAL BATTLE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST BIDEN’S HIDDEN COST-OF-LIVING INCREASES: The CAFE reset represents the latest action by President Trump to prevent the Biden EV-related policies from raising costs for Americans.

In June, President Trump signed a joint resolution to end the California EV mandates, which would have effectively been a 100% ban on new gas cars sold in the state by 2035 (with similar effects in 17 states that adopted California’s standards).

In July, President Trump signed into law the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, which set the civil penalty for violating CAFE standards to $0, protecting the U.S. auto manufacturing industry from significant fines.

Under President Trump, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also released its proposal to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which ignores Congress’ clear intent under the Clean Air Act and has been used to justify over $1 trillion in costs for the American consumers and economy.

Today’s action helps ensure that even if far-left Democrats return to power, the CAFE standards are sensible, so U.S. automakers are not held to infeasible standards.

Combined with auto loan interest deductibility for new made-in-the-USA vehicles, President Trump continues to deliver real relief that makes owning a safe, reliable car more affordable for every American family. (source)

Nov 21 2025

Secretary Scott Bessent Discusses Excellent September Jobs Report


Posted originally on CTH on November 20, 2025 | Sundance

The govt shutdown made a mess of the economic data surveying and statistical analysis generally needed for accurate snapshots of the economy. However, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) was able to release the September jobs report data {SEE BLS REPORT HERE}.

The geopolitical trade reset continues delivering domestic economic fluctuations, as each sector and specific international dependency reacts to President Trump’s shifts and turns in targeted economic policy.  The September jobs report caught the economic pundits off-guard, as it showed a much bigger gain in jobs than they expected.

As noted by MSM, “The US added 119,000 jobs in September, far more than the 53,000 economists expected, and unemployment unexpectedly increased to 4.4% from 4.3%.”  President Trump’s immigration enforcement continues to capture and remove illegal alien workers from the U.S. economy. This is also driving up domestic wages.

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Nov 20 2025

President Trump Delivers Remarks at the U.S-Saudi Investment Forum


Posted originally on CTH on November 20, 2025 | Sundance 

President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attended a U.S-Saudi investment forum and delivered remarks to the assembled business audience.

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