Now Is Not The Time to Forcibly Close Restaurants – There are Interim Alternatives…


Right now, today, the retail food supply-chain is trying to recover from previous panic buying. Across the nation grocery stores are wiped out. Warehouses are emptying trying to replenish the stores. The upstream suppliers are trying to resupply the warehouses.

Supermarkets are closing early and opening late while trying to stem panic and fulfill customer demand.  Now is exactly the wrong time to limit food choices and push more people into those retail food stores.

No advance notice. No time to prepare or plan… just an immediate order.

Imagine what will happen tomorrow morning in Ohio and Illinois at grocery stores.

Notice these orders from short-sighted governors are in effect almost immediately. Meaning no-one has had the time to prepare for this type of a disruption in the total food supply chain.

These governors do not have any experience, policy framework, or previously established state-wide systems (having been tested through experience) for a process of rapid food distribution as a result of a state emergency. They are flying by the seat of their pants, and taking advice from the wrong people with the wrong priorities and the wrong frame-of-reference.

A government cannot just shut down 30 to 50 percent of the way civil society feeds themselves, without planning and advanced preparation for an alternative. Those who AREthe alternative, the retail food grocers, need time to prepare themselves (and their entire logistical system) for the incredible impact.  Without preparation this is a man-made crisis about to get a lot worse.

Some states have emergency food distribution and contingency plans. Those states are hurricane prone states; and those states have experienced the intense demand on the food distribution system when restaurants are closed and people in society need to eat.

Those states have, by necessity, developed massive logistical systems to deal with the food needs of their citizens. These current short-sighted states are not those prepared states.

Any governor who shuts down their restaurant industry without a civil contingency plan is being incredibly, catastrophically, reckless. It really is a terribly dangerous decision.

Any policy that drives more demand, when demand is already outpacing supply, is a bad policy. This is the food supply chain we are talking about. This is not arbitrary stuff being discussed. This supply chain is critical.

People freak out about access to food.

For the past 20 to 30 years there have been exhaustive studies on the growth of the restaurant sector.  It has been well documented that as the pace of society increased, as efficiencies and productivity increased; and as less of the population learned how to cook and prepare meals; approximately 30% of retail food growth dropped.

Multiply the impact of lower food shopping over all those years.  More Americans eat at restaurants now.  Depending on the area, there are estimates that fifty percent of all food consumed is from “dining out” or “food consumed outside the home.”

Most of the current panic shopping is because people are preparing by buying weeks worth of food products.  Closing restaurants will only magnify that panic shopping.

If state officials are going to make these decisions, they need to coordinate closely with the retail grocers and food outlets in their states. The decision to shut down restaurants must be very closely coordinated and timed with a civil society need for alternatives.  Those providing the alternatives need time… not much time…. but they need time.

This is exactly the wrong time to shut restaurants and put additional pressure on a national food supply chain that is trying to meet overwhelming demand.

Either these officials are intentionally trying to create civil unrest, or they are just inexperienced politicians without the ability to think through the logical conclusions to their mandated orders.  I’m not sure which it is.  However, regardless of intent or stupidity, these types of knee-jerk decisions will harm more people than the virus itself.

Drive-thru and curbside services will not work.  Yes, McDonalds and similar do and can provide drive-thru services… but they are not designed for exclusive “drive-thru” services.  Approximately eight percent of all daily fast-food comes from McDonalds imagine a line of cars a mile long for a drive-thru hamburger.   Then imagine that car, after waiting four hours in that line, orders a month’s worth of hamburgers….  and then that supply chain collapses….  See, it ain’t that simple.

These decisions create the snow-ball effect…

Most restaurants are not not set-up for immediate delivery…. Yes, all of these challenges can and will be overcome; restaurants will limit their curbside products, fast food will put a limit on orders, kitchens will modify to adjust to the work-flow, etc.  However, it takes a time to prepare for these necessary shifts and changes.

A more prudent step would be for state officials to provide mitigation directives, simple and prudent changes, during a phase that allows restaurants to adapt:

  • Position all tables 6 feet apart.
  • Provide single use condiments and utensils.
  • Provide disinfecting wipes at the front door and on tables.
  • Limit the opportunity for virus spread by modifying the consumer engagement.

These types of dining out measures can be prudent and allow for the mitigation of the virus without spreading wide-scale panic that only worsens the issues for alternative options.

Arbitrarily shutting down restaurants, effective immediately, is not a good idea and will only increase the panic and anxiety…. Then again, maybe that’s the goal.

Courtney Holland 🇺🇸@hollandcourtney

There was plenty of produce, cereal, and snack foods available but most essential items were out of stock.

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Escalating Quickly: Hoboken NJ Announces City-Wide Enforced Coronavirus Curfew – All Citizens Must Stay in Their Homes 10pm to 5am…


Telling people to remain calm and simultaneously forcing people to remain in their homes would seem to be a contradiction in messaging; potentially only worsening the panic.  However, this is one of those, “well, yes it’s unconstitutional except when….” moments, that may have rather profound consequences.

The Democrat mayor of Hoboken New Jersey has announced a mandatory curfew between 10pm and 5am where all residents are not permitted to exit their residence; and all bars must close due to the coronavirus.

I don’t know if this is the first ‘mandatory’ coronavirus curfew, or even how such an effort could feasibly be enforced, but it’s likely not going to be the last:.

New Jersey – 10:45pm ET – Hoboken Mayor Ravinder Bhalla announced a citywide curfew will be in effect starting Monday. The curfew also places major restrictions on bars and restaurants.

The curfew will be in effect from 10 p.m.- 5 a.m.starting on Monday, and until further notice.  Residents will be required to stay home, except for emergencies, or if needed at work by their employer.

As of 11 a.m. Sunday, bars that do not serve food will not be permitted to operate at all. All other bars and restaurants are no longer permitted to serve food within the establishment, and can only sell takeout or delivery. (read more)

Hoboken Mayor Ravinder Bhalla

 

Empty Shelves? – Understanding Supply Chains, Logistics, and Recovery Efforts…


By now everyone is familiar with the abundant pictures on social media of empty shelves in local stores.  Having some familiarity with the supply chain might help people to understand some of the challenges; and possibly help locate product. (Pics from Twitter)

There are essentially two types of distribution centers within the retail supply chain for most chain markets, food stores and supermarkets.  The first type is a third party, or brokered, distribution network.  The second type is a proprietary, company owned, distribution center.  Knowing the type of distribution helps to understand what you can expect.

If your local retail store is being replenished from a third party distribution center, you can expect greater shortages and longer replenishment times; we will see entire days of empty shelves in these stores.  However, if your local retail store owns their own warehouse and distribution network, the replenishment will be faster.  In times of rapid sales, there is a stark difference.

These are general guidelines: An average non-perishable distribution center will replenish approximately 60 stores.   Those 60 stores will generally not extend beyond 100 miles from the distribution center.  The typical company owned warehouse will have approximately 20 tractors (the semis) delivering trailers of goods to those sixty stores.

In this type of network… On a typical day a truck driver will run three loads. Run #1 Delivery-Return; Run #2 Delivery-return, Run #3 Delivery Return. End shift.

If every tractor is operating that’s a maximum capacity of 60 trailers of merchandise per day.  Many stores receiving more than one full trailer.

A typical store, during a non-emergency, will receive 1 full trailer of non-perishable goods three to five times per week.  However, under current volume the purchased amount of product is more than triple normal volume.  It is impossible to ship 180 trailers of merchandise daily to sixty stores with 20 fixed asset tractors.  This is where the supply chains and logistics are simply incapable of keeping up with demand.

Thinking about distribution to a 100 mile radius.  The stores closest to the distribution center will be delivered first, usually overnight or very early morning (run #1). The intermediate stores (50 miles) will be delivered second, mid-morning (run #2).  The stores furthest from the distribution center will be delivered third, late afternoon (run #3).

So if you live close to a distribution center, your best bet is early morning.  If you live in the intermediate zone, late morning to noon.  If you are in the distant zone in the evening.

The current problem is not similar to a holiday, snow event or hurricane. In each of those events typical store sales will double; however, during holidays or traditional emergencies the increase in product(s) sold is very specific: (a) holiday product spikes on specific items are known well in advance and front-loaded; and (b) snow/hurricanes again see very specific types of merchandise spikes, with predictability.

In the current emergency shopping pattern the total business increase is more than triple, that’s approximately 30% more than during peak holiday shopping.  Think of how busy your local store is on December 23rd of every year.  Keep in mind those customers are all purchasing the same or similar products.  Now add another 30%+ to that volume and realize the increases are not specific products, everything is selling wall-to-wall.

Perishable and non perishable products are selling triple normal volume.  This creates a replenishment or recovery cycle that is impossible to keep up with.  The first issue is simply logistics and infrastructure: ie. warehouse (selectors, loaders), and distribution (tractors, trailers, drivers).  The second issue is magnifying the first, totality of volume.

A hurricane event is typically a 4 or 5 day cycle.  A snow event might be 2 days.  The holiday pattern is roughly a week and all the products are well known.  However, the type of purchasing with coronavirus shopping is daily, everything, with no end date.

Once the store is wiped out, a full non-perishable recovery order might take four tractor-trailers of merchandise. In our common example, if every store needed a full recovery order that would be 240 tractor-trailers (60 stores x 4 per store).   This would need to happen every day, seven days a week, for the duration of the increase.  [And that is just for the non perishable goods]

That amount of increase is a logistical impossibility because: (a) no warehouse can hold four times the amount of product from normal distribution; (b) the inbound supply-chain orders to fill the distribution center cannot simply increase four fold; and (c) even with leased/contracted drivers doubling the amount of tractors and trailers, there’s still no way to distribute that much product.

Instead what we see are priorities being assigned to specific types of product that can be shipped to maximize “cube space” in outbound trailers going to stores.   A distribution center can send 100 cases of canned goods (one pallet) in the same space as 15 cases of paper towels or toilet tissue (one pallet).  So decisions about what products to ship have to be prioritized.

Club stores (ex. BJ’s, SAM’s, or Costco) can ship bulk paper goods faster because they do not carry a full variety of non-perishable items.  The limited selection in Club stores naturally helps them replenish; they carry less variety.  Meanwhile the typical supermarket distribution center has to make decisions on what specific goods to prioritize.

Nationally (and regionally) the coronavirus shopping panic is far outpacing the supply chain of every retailer.  Instead of a weeks worth of food products, people are now trying to purchase a months worth.  Every one day of coronavirus sales is equal to three or four normal days.

To try and get a handle on this level of volume we will likely see changes in operating hours.  Expect to see stores closing early or limiting the amount of time they are open every day…. the reason is simple: (1) they don’t have the products to sell over their normal business hours; and (2) they need to move more labor into a more compact time-frame to deal with the increases in volume.

Greg M@67gta390

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KSAT 12

@ksatnews

H-E-B closing all stores early to allow time to restock shelves, no need to panic officials say – The new store hours will be in effect until further notice. http://bit.ly/2wT1UN4 

H-E-B closing all stores early to allow time to restock shelves, no need to panic officials say

H-E-B is adapting store hours in response to the massive amount of customers who have been clearing shelves in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

ksat.com

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Publix

@Publix

To better serve our customers, give our store teams time to conduct additional preventive sanitation and restock product on our shelves, beginning Saturday, March 14 we will adjust store and pharmacy hours companywide to close at 8 p.m. until further notice.

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VP Mike Pence Coronavirus Task Force Press Briefing – 12:00pm ET Livestream…


Following a 10:00am meeting with President Trump and the COVID-19 task force members, Vice-President Mike Pence will be holding a press briefing at noon.

UPDATE: Video Added (Just Hit Play)

WH Livestream Link – NBC Livestream Link – USA Today Livestream Link

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Final Text of “Coronavirus Response Act” – H.R.6201…


At approximately 1:00am this morning the House of Representatives passed the Coronavirus Response Act [H.R.6201]  (House Link Here)

The final text of the bill is also embedded below.

The Bill passed: 363-Yay/40-Nay with 26-Not Voting [Vote Tally Here]

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Additionally, President Trump exercised statutory authorities to declare a national emergency in response to the coronavirus.  The unprecedented action invites States, territories, and tribes to access over $42 billion in existing funding to combat the coronavirus.

♦ The Administration has taken decisive action to ensure State, local, and tribal leaders have the resources they need to provide protective measures for their communities.

  • The Small Business Administration also has authority and available funding to make over $7 billion in loans to qualifying small businesses to assist economic recovery.

♦ President Trump is directing further actions across his Administration in response to the coronavirus.

  • The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has announced guidance to limit medically unnecessary visits to nursing homes to protect vulnerable elderly Americans
  • The Secretary of the Education will be waiving interest on all student loans held by the Federal Government.
  • The President is directing the Department of Energy to purchase large quantities of crude oil for the strategic reserve.

♦ The President is urging every State to set up emergency operational centers and is asking every hospital to activate its emergency preparedness plan.

EMPOWERING HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS: The President’s emergency declaration will give healthcare providers on the front lines of this pandemic the flexibility they need to respond.

♦ President Trump continues to cut through every piece of unnecessary red tape that may hinder our response efforts and make every Federal resource available.

♦ The President will empower the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to waive provisions of certain laws and regulations and give maximum flexibility to healthcare providers to care for their patients.

♦ The declaration will provide HHS with critical authorities to waive:

  • Certain laws to enable telehealth, remote doctors’ visits, and hospital check-ins
  • Licensing requirements so doctors from other states can provide services in areas with the greatest need.
  • Critical Access Hospital requirements to allow those hospitals to have more beds and longer lengths of stay
  • The requirement of a 3-day hospital stay prior to admission to a nursing home.
  • Rules hindering hospitals’ ability to bring additional physicians on board or obtain needed office space.
  • Restrictions on where hospitals can care for patients.

♦ The Administration will be working to eliminate every obstacle possible to ensure healthcare providers can deliver Americans the care they need.

RAPIDLY EXPANDING TESTING: The Trump Administration is working to rapidly expand coronavirus testing across the nation and make sure Americans who need them have access.

♦ President Trump is mobilizing resources across the Federal Government to accelerate testing and expand access for more Americans.

  • The President wants to make sure that those who need a test can get a test safely, quickly, and conveniently.

♦ The Administration is working with the private sector to open up drive-through testing collection sites in critical areas impacted by the coronavirus.

♦ The Administration is working with Google to develop a website Americans can go to determine whether a test is needed and, if so, facilitate testing at a nearby location.

♦ The Food and Drug Administration is issuing emergency authorization for new commercial coronavirus tests that will help significantly expand testing across the country.

  • One new test produced by Roche has already been authorized and authorization is coming for another test very shortly.
  • Up to 2 million additional tests are expected to be available next week thanks to these efforts.

♦ President Trump and his Administration are working to provide maximum flexibility for States to approve labs for coronavirus testing.

♦ HHS recently announced it is providing funding to help accelerate the development of two rapid diagnostic tests.

♦ The Administration has designated Assistant Secretary for Health Brett Giroir to take the lead in coordinating testing efforts to ensure seamless access for patients, doctors, and hospitals.

♦ The Administration continues to cut red tape that restricted who qualifies for testing.

Apple Will Close all Retail Stores Outside China Until March 27th Due to Coronavirus…


This is a bold step for the brand.  It takes very strong leadership to make a decision like this. All Apple Inc. retail stores will be closed; however, on-line distribution centers will remain open.  Workers will continue to receive their regular pay despite the closures.

(Via CNBC) Apple said it will close all of its stores outside of Greater China until March 27 to reduce the risk of the coronavirus spreading.

The iPhone maker’s online store will remain open as well as its “Apple Store” app.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had learned lessons from the outbreak in China and that is why it is taking these steps.

“One of those lessons is that the most effective way to minimize risk of the virus’s transmission is to reduce density and maximize social distance,” Cook wrote in a blog post late on Friday. “As rates of new infections continue to grow in other places, we’re taking additional steps to protect our team members and customers.” (read more)

Trump is Trying to Help Us — The Demorats are trying to stop Him!


We think the hype about the coronavirus is overblown. Sure, it’s more dangerous than the average flu bug because nobody has had a chance build immunity. The old and infirm can die from it, but that has always been the case. Deaths caused by the flu have always happened.

President Trump calmly suggested some common sense things such as washing one’s hands, limiting one’s travel, and avoiding crowds.

Yet panic is in the air. Masks are selling out along with toilet paper. Neither will stop the virus. We are told we should have food and water stockpiled, which is not a bad idea regardless, but now some schools are closing and the NBA has suspended its season. The stock market has succumbed to the fear, but it was in a bull market bubble for far too long anyway.

The Democrats are eagerly using the issue to lambast Trump. This is not surprising considering heir ‘Russia collusion’ and ‘Ukraine bribery’ witch-hunts failed. The Democrats’ climate change hysteria has failed to generate sufficient fear, but the virus plays right into their hands.

The coronavirus will eventually evaporate under a hot summer sun as the flu does every year.

The globalists love a good crisis. They use them to undermine our freedom as well as our health.

—Ben Garrison

For Comparison The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as “swine flu“, that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.[116]As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.[117] [118]

History

The earliest reported cases in the US began appearing in late March 2009, in California,[119][120] then spread to infect people in Texas, New York, and assorted other states by mid-April.

On April 22, the CDC first activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC). On April 25, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency of international concern.

The disease then spread across the country’s population and by the end of May had infected citizens in all 50 states. The pattern continued through June of the same year. The total number of confirmed cases varied from 27,717[121] (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed and probable cases) and 25,453 (total of all state confirmed cases) as of June 26, 2009.

Towards the middle of June 2009, the number of US cases surpassed those of Mexico, which had been the previous leader in diagnosed cases of the disease. Toward the end of June 2009, the number of deaths related to the virus in the US surpassed those of all other countries as well.

On June 25, the CDC released information revealing that there were more than likely over one million (1,000,000) cases of the disease in the US, most of which had not been reported or diagnosed.[122][123]

Deaths relating to this new strain of influenza began appearing in the US in late April, and by early June 15, states had reported fatalities related to or directly occurring from the virus. These deaths totaled at 4,000 as of November 15, 2009. The CDC distributed a vaccine for the novel flu strain.[124]using mechanisms already in place for its Vaccines for Children (VFC) program.[125]

On April 26, 2009, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declared Swine Flu a public health emergency. [126] On October 24, 2009, President Barack Obama declared Swine Flu a national emergency in the United States. On November 12, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 22 million Americans had been infected with 2009 A H1N1 and 4,000 Americans have died.[127] On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans or 1 in 6 people had been infected with the 2009 A H1N1 Virus and 10,000 Americans had died, by which time the vaccine was beginning to be widely distributed to the general public by several states.[128] On December 23, 2009 the CDC reported a reduction of the disease by 59% percent and the disease was expected to end in the United States in January 2010.

On January 15, 2010, the CDC released new estimate figures for swine flu, saying it has sickened about 55 million Americans and killed about 11,160 from April through mid-December.[129] On February 12, 2010, the CDC released updated estimate figures for swine flu, reporting that, in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January.[130]

Initial cases[edit]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identified the first two A/09(H1N1) swine flu cases in California on April 17, 2009, via the Border Infectious Disease Program,[131] for the San Diego County child, and a naval research facility studying a special diagnostic test, where influenza sample from the child from Imperial County was tested.[132] By April 21, enhanced surveillance was established to search for additional cases in both California and Texas and the CDC determined that the virus strain was genetically similar to the previously known A(H1N1) swine flu circulating among pigs in the United States since about 1999.

It was established that the virus was a combination of human, North American swine, and Eurasian swine influenza viruses; the viruses from the initial two Californian cases were also noted to be resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, two common influenza antiviral drugs.[133] No contact with pigs was found for any of the seven Californian nor either of the two Texas cases, suggesting human-to-human transmission of the virus.

On April 28, 2009, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first official US death of swine flu. Tests confirmed that a 23-month-old toddler from Mexico, who was probably infected there, died on April 27 from the flu while visiting Texas.[134]

Outbreak across the US[edit]

CDC report for the 2008-2009 flu season week 18 (May 17), subtypes and percent positive tests

Cases of H1N1 spread rapidly across the United States, with particularly severe outbreaks in Texas, New York, Utah, and California. Early cases were associated with recent travel to Mexico; many were students who had traveled to Mexico for Spring Break.[135] On May 4, 2009, the CDC reported one death, 286 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu across 36 states, 35 hospitalizations, and expects H1N1 to eventually spread to all states. A large number of cases, according to medics, have happened in the days that preceded the launch of the alert and came out only in these days due to a massive backlog.[136] By May 5, 2009, the number had risen to 403[121] and a second death was reported in Texas.[137] The CDC and government officials had expressed cautious optimism about the severity and spread of H1N1.[138][139]

Changes in surveillance of cases of influenza-like illness, including new guidelines for identifying cases to test, increased laboratory testing, and new test kits able to distinguish this novel strain, resulted in a spike in the percent of cases tested positive for influenza. Of the positive cases, about a third were due to the novel strain. Also found were a substantial number of cases where the strain could not be subtyped.[140]

Pneumonia and influenza deaths in 122 US cities, 5 years through October 2009

The proportion of US deaths due to pneumonia and influenza climbed above the epidemic threshold in the 2007–2008 winter flu season but not in the 2008–2009 season. Although the 2009 H1N1 outbreak reached epidemic levels of infection early in 2009, it did not contribute to epidemic levels of pneumonia and influenza related deaths until October 2009.[citation needed]

2009 US Swine Flu Summary
Number of Confirmed Cases/Deaths See Table Above
Number of States/Territories
with Reported Cases
56
Number of States/Territories
with Confirmed Deaths
55
Earliest Confirmed Infection in US March 28, 2009[141]
First Death Inside the US April 27, 2009[134]
First Death of US Citizen May 5, 2009[142]
Number of People Hospitalized 9,079 (as of September 3)[143]
Fatalities 593 (as of September 3)[143]

The second wave[edit]

In early October 2009, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that swine flu was widespread across the country. It also said there was significant flu activity in virtually all states, which was considered to be quite unusual for this time of year. There was particular worry about pregnant women. As of late August, 100 had been hospitalized in intensive care units and 28 had died since the beginning of the outbreak in April. On October 1, it was acknowledged that a recruit in basic training in Fort Jackson, South Carolina, was the Army’s first swine flu death. The recruit fell ill on September 1 and died of pneumonia on September 10.

Dell Children’s Medical Center in Austin, Texas, erected two tents in its parking lot to handle emergency room visits, and hospitals around Colorado Springs recorded a 30 percent spike in flu visits. As pediatric cases were increasing, the Dept. of Health and Human Services released 300,000 courses of children’s liquid Tamiflu from the national pandemic stockpile in late September, with the first batches sent to Texas and Colorado.

In late September, the disease centers reported that 936 had died of flu symptoms or of flu-associated pneumonia since August 30, when it began a new count of deaths, including some without laboratory-confirmed swine flu.[144]

The Agriculture Department reported on October 16 that three pigs at the Minnesota State Fair, in St. Paul, were tested positive in late August for H1N1 virus, which were the first cases in the country, although infected pigs had been found in eight other countries. There were 103 pigs tested at the Fair, including the three infected, though all appeared healthy. Scientists said the virus was already spreading widely among people, and, in fact, was more common in humans than in pigs, so humans were more likely to catch it from others than from pigs.[145]

In mid-October, it was reported that flu caused by the H1N1 virus was widespread in 41 states, and flu-like illnesses accounted for 6.1 percent of all doctor visits, which was considered high[citation needed], particularly for October. Forty-three children had died from H1N1 since August 30, which is approximately the number that usually dies in an entire flu season. Nineteen of the forty-three were teenagers while sixteen were between ages five to eleven. The rest were under five.[citation needed] It is reported that the severity of the disease was not increasing. About fifteen to twenty percent of the patients hospitalized for the flu were placed in the intensive care unit, a level similar to that for seasonal flu.[citation needed]

High-risk groups line up at a defunct Kmart on October 24, 2009 for the first H1N1 vaccines publicly available in Boise, Idaho.

Projections of the supply of H1N1 vaccine had decreased significantly from a level of 120 million doses ready in October, estimated during the summer, to an estimate of 28 to 30 million doses by the end of the month. On October 14, 11.4 million doses of the H1N1 vaccine were said to be available. As of November 20, 2009, the CDC reported sharp declines in H1N1 activity throughout the United States, with influenza-like illness (which may also include meningitis, pneumonia, strep pharyngitis, gastroenteritis, and the common cold) accounting for 5.5% of doctors visits, down sharply from 8% in late October, the peak of the second wave. However, taking the vaccine is still urged by the CDC, as a third wave of the disease may sweep across the US, possibly in January/February 2010.[146] as of December 24, the second wave of H1N1 has clearly peaked, with pneumonia and influenza deaths falling below the epidemic threshold for the first time in 11 weeks, and the proportion of doctors visits do to influenza-like illness falling to baseline (2.3%), down from 5.5% 1 month before, on November 20. However, it was reported that influenza activity was beginning to increase in West Virginia, with 5.2% of patients treated by West Virginia health care providers having influenza-like illness, a major increase from 2% of patients treated by West Virginia health care providers having influenza-like illness in November.

Flu strain severity[edit]

Influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported to CDC, from 2005–06 to start of 2009–2010

The new strain was identified as a combination of several different strains of Influenzavirus A, subtype H1N1, including separate strains of this subtype circulating in humans (see human influenza) and in pigs (see swine influenza). The strain transmits between humans and was initially reported to have a relatively high mortality rate in Mexico. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have expressed serious concerns that the new strain has the potential to become an influenza pandemic.[147] It is reported that, because the virus is already widespread, containment will be impossible.[148]

In addition, the flu death toll in Mexico could be lower than first thought, Gerald Evans, head of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada and a member of a federal pandemic-planning committee, said on April 29:[149]

There was a lot of speculation and what seemed to be evidence there were dozens and dozens of deaths. Careful analysis showed these people likely died of something else, and not influenza. That’s really good news, and that would fit with what we’ve seen outside of Mexico.

Moreover, another Canadian expert, Neil Rau, criticized the WHO’s decision to raise its Pandemic alert to level 5, saying:[150]

I don’t agree with (the WHO) because I think it’s a panic metre, not a pandemic metre. […] If that flu-like illness is not deadly, I don’t know what the cause for alarm is for people who are not really sickened by this virus. […] I’m really eager to know how much worse this is than seasonal flu. So far it’s looking like it’s not that serious.

CNN stated on April 28, 2009 that there were at least 800 deaths in the U.S. due to normal influenza in each individual week between January 1 and April 18, which is higher than the combined worldwide death toll for the swine flu.[151]

As of November 19, 2009, the official death toll attributed directly to the novel H1N1 and seasonal influenza was 877.[152] This total exceeds the 849 deaths directly attributed to seasonal influenza in 2006.[153]Many of the other deaths commonly attributed to influenza are caused by complicated influenza, where a second infection causes death, usually pneumonia (of which 48,657 of 55,477 official deaths in 2006 occurred in people aged 65 years and older)[153][154]

Response[edit]

Congruent U.S. Government and WHO Pandemic Response Charts.

The Federal response remained at US Pandemic Stage 0, congruent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Pandemic Phases 1, 2 and 3;[155][156]however, the WHO’s Pandemic Phase was raised to 4 on April 27, which is congruent with US Pandemic Stage 2.[157] On April 29, the WHO raised the pandemic alert level to phase 5.[158]

The United States federal government declared a public health emergency, and several U.S. states then indicated that they may follow suit. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano noted that this declaration was standard operating procedure, which was also done for the 2009 presidential inauguration and for flooding.[159]

After many days of deliberation the WHO declared that the current influenza had become a true pandemic, raising the Pandemic Alert level to Phase 6, the highest on the WHO scale and congruent with U.S. Federal Government Response Stages 3–6.[160]

White House[edit]

Barack Obama being vaccinated on Dec. 20, 2009.

An official for the White House said on April 24 that “the White House is taking the situation seriously and monitoring for any new developments. The president has been fully briefed.”[161] President Barack Obama stated that “We are closely monitoring the emerging cases of swine flu”. He also noted, “This is obviously a cause for concern … but it is not a cause for alarm”.[162] President Obama suggested that U.S. schools should consider shutting down, as a future possibility, if their students were to become infected.[163] White House Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs said the effort to get a team in place to respond to the health scare has not been hindered by the lack of a secretary of Health and Human Services or appointees in any of the department’s 19 key posts.[164] The president’s nominee, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, was still awaiting confirmation from the U.S. Senate until passing on April 28. The President has not yet made appointments to either the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, the Surgeon General, or the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.[164] The current acting Surgeon General, Steven K. Galson, is also currently serving as the Acting Assistant Secretary for Health.[165]

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius in a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House regarding the H1N1 virus.

On April 30, it was reported that an aide to Steven Chu, the US Energy Secretary, had fallen ill from the virus after helping arrange President Barack Obama‘s trip to Mexico.[166] However, the White House stated that the President is not at risk of obtaining the flu.[166] Kathleen Sebelius was confirmed as the Secretary of Health and Human Services by the Senate on April 28, 2009 with a vote of 65–31.[167][168]

On October 24, President Obama declared the 2009 H1N1 swine flu a national emergency.[169] The declaration will make it easier for U.S. medical facilities to handle a surge in flu patients by allowing the waiver of some requirements of Medicare, Medicaid and other federal health insurance programs as needed.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)[edit]

File:Video xo.ogv

In this video, Joe Bresee, with CDC’s Influenza Division, describes the symptoms of swine flu and warning signs to look for that indicate the need for urgent medical attention.
See also: See this video with subtitles in YouTube

Activation of Emergency Operations Center

During the week of April 19, 2009, the CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC), with RADM Stephen Redd as the Incident Commander, to augment the ongoing investigation of human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1).[170] More than 250 CDC professionals are working from the CDC EOC as part of the agency’s response.[171] As of May 4, 2009, the CDC reported that it had deployed 25% of the supplies and medicines in the Strategic National Stockpile to the various states.[172]

Swine Flu Test Kits

As of April 29, only the CDC could confirm U.S. swine flu cases.[173] Besser stated during an April 30 press briefing that California and New York had diagnostic test kits, and that the kits would be sent to all states starting the following day.[174] On May 6, the CDC announced that testing kits were now available for all states. This is expected to generate an increase in the number of confirmed cases as more states begin doing their own tests.[175]

Influenza Reporting Requirements

In the United States, the majority of the 70 National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) laboratories do not report the influenza A subtype.

However, in 2007, human infection with a novel influenzavirus A became a nationally notifiable condition. Novel influenza A virus infections include all human infections with influenza A viruses that are different from currently circulating human influenza H1 and H3 viruses. These viruses include those that are subtyped as nonhuman in origin and those that are unsubtypable with standard methods and reagents.[176] The new strain responsible for this outbreak was one such virus.

CDC Recommendations for Schools

Initially the CDC had issued a recommendation that schools close for as long as two weeks if a student catches swine flu.[177] Some school districts closed all schools if a single child was classified as probable.[135] On May 5 the CDC retracted its advice stating that schools that were closed based on previous CDC guidance related to this outbreak may reopen.[178] By that time at least 726 schools nationwide serving more than 480,000 students had closed for at least some period of time.[177] The CDC amended its advice citing, new information on disease severity and the limiting effectiveness of school closure as a control measure.[178] The new advice given stated, “Decisions about school closure should be at the discretion of local authorities based on local considerations, including public concern and the impact of school absenteeism and staffing shortages.”[178]

Food and Drug Administration[edit]

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized emergency use of medicines and diagnostic tests for flu. (FDA is part of Department of Health and Human Services.)[179] The FDA stated it is also responding to this threat by:

  • working with other government agencies and manufacturers on a series of issues related to antiviral medications.
  • growing the 2009 H1N1 flu virus and preparing to make vaccine seed lots, which may be used eventually to produce a safe and effective vaccine.
  • helping to prepare reagents needed for vaccine production and coordinating closely with other public health agencies for clinical development and testing.
  • accelerating access to new diagnostic tools for this 2009 H1N1 flu virus[180]

On May 6, 2009, the FDA announced that it had approved a new manufacturing facility for seasonal flu vaccine, owned by Sanofi Pasteur, which could also be used for manufacturing a vaccine for the new H1N1 flu strain.[181] The FDA also issued a warning for consumers to be wary of products claiming to cure or prevent swine flu.[182]

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Other federal agencies[edit]

Department of Homeland Security

Secretary Napolitano stated that DHS is the principal federal office for incidents such as the current H1N1 flu outbreak, and “Under that role, we have been leading a true collaborative effort.”[183] The Department of Homeland Security has a document, dated November 1, 2005, entitled “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza”, detailing planning for potential pandemics. https://web.archive.org/web/20090507013213/http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/federal/pandemic-influenza.pdf

State Department

The State Department suggested travelers to Mexico stay alert and comply with guidance from Mexican public health officials, but did not impose any travel restrictions on US citizens to Mexico.[184] However, the State Department did recommend US citizens avoid non-essential travel to Mexico.[185]

Department of Agriculture

The Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported no swine in the US have been infected so far, but the USDA is monitoring swine across the US for signs of infection.[186]

Department of Commerce

The Department of Commerce sent a letter to Russia and China requesting that those countries lift their ban on American pork products.[187]

Department of Defense

The Department of Defense (DOD) is monitoring the swine flu situation and has contingency plans to deal with such outbreaks.[188] As of May 7, 2009, the DOD reports 104 confirmed cases among Armed Forces personnel and their families. DOD maintains a daily summary and map.[189]

Department of Education

The Department of Education is providing guidance to schools in the US affected by swine flu, as well as precautions to take.[190]

State and local[edit]

Schools closed in many states in response to local flu outbreaks. By April 30, 2009, 300 U.S. schools and school districts had announced closures in response to the outbreak, giving 169,000 students time off.[191] On May 4, 2009, about 533 schools in 24 states in the U.S. were closed, affecting about 330,000 students.[192] On September 25, 2009, 42 schools were closed in eight states as the second wave of the pandemic began.[193]

On May 5, Kathleen Sebelius stated in a CDC news conference that school closures for single confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza were unnecessary, but that parents keep their child home if he or she displays an influenza-like illness.[194]

Travel industry[edit]

Several US airlines waived fees for cancellations and flight changes.[195] At least one cruise line changed itinerary to avoid Mexican ports of call.[196]

Summary[edit]

[citation needed]

2009 A(H1N1) Outbreak and pandemic milestones
28 March United States First case in the US of what would later be identified as swine flu origin.
21 April California First case confirmed in California.
23 April Texas First case confirmed in Texas.
25 April Kansas First case confirmed in Kansas.
United States Community outbreaks confirmed in the United States.
26 April New York (state) First case confirmed in New York.
Ohio First case confirmed in Ohio.
Acting HHS Secretary Charles E. Johnson declares 2009 H1N1 a Public Health Emergency[197][198]
28 April Indiana First case confirmed in Indiana.
29 April Texas First non-US citizen death confirmed in Texas.
Nevada First case confirmed in Nevada.
Arizona First case confirmed in Arizona.
Maine First case confirmed in Maine.
Massachusetts First case confirmed in Massachusetts.
Michigan First case confirmed in Michigan.
30 April Nebraska First case confirmed in Nebraska.
South Carolina First case confirmed in South Carolina.
Minnesota First case confirmed in Minnesota.
Colorado First case confirmed in Colorado.
Virginia First case confirmed in Virginia.
Kentucky First case confirmed in Kentucky.
New Jersey First case confirmed in New Jersey.
1 May Florida First case confirmed in Florida.
Missouri First case confirmed in Missouri.
Connecticut First case confirmed in Connecticut.
Delaware First case confirmed in Delaware.
2 May New Mexico First case confirmed in New Mexico.
Utah First case confirmed in Utah.
New Hampshire First case confirmed in New Hampshire.
Rhode Island First case confirmed in Rhode Island.
Iowa First case confirmed in Iowa.
Wisconsin First case confirmed in Wisconsin.
Alabama First case confirmed in Alabama.
3 May Idaho First case confirmed in Idaho.
Pennsylvania First case confirmed in Pennsylvania.
Louisiana First case confirmed in Louisiana.
North Carolina First case confirmed in North Carolina.
Tennessee First case confirmed in Tennessee.
4 May Oregon First case confirmed in Oregon.
Georgia (U.S. state) First case confirmed in Georgia.
Maryland First case confirmed in Maryland.
5 May Washington (state) First case confirmed in Washington.
Oklahoma First case confirmed in Oklahoma.
Hawaii First case confirmed in Hawaii.
Texas First US citizen death confirmed in Texas.
6 May Washington, D.C. First case confirmed in District of Columbia.
7 May South Dakota First case confirmed in South Dakota.
8 May Vermont First case confirmed in Vermont.
Arkansas First case confirmed in Arkansas.
9 May Washington (state) First death confirmed in Washington.
11 May Montana First case confirmed in Montana.
13 May North Dakota First case confirmed in North Dakota.
14 May Arizona First death confirmed in Arizona.
15 May Mississippi First case confirmed in Mississippi.
17 May New York (state) First death confirmed in New York.
19 May Missouri First death confirmed in Missouri.
20 May Utah First death confirmed in Utah.
25 May Illinois First death confirmed in Illinois.
26 May Puerto Rico First case confirmed in Puerto Rico.
27 May Wyoming First case confirmed in Wyoming.
Alaska First case confirmed in Alaska.
2 June West Virginia First case confirmed in West Virginia. All 50 states have confirmed H1N1.
Virginia First death confirmed in Virginia.
3 June Michigan First death confirmed in Michigan.
Connecticut First death confirmed in Connecticut.
4 June California First death confirmed in California.
5 June Pennsylvania First death confirmed in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin First death confirmed in Wisconsin.
8 June Oregon First death confirmed in Oregon.
Oklahoma First death confirmed in Oklahoma.
15 June New Jersey First death confirmed in New Jersey.
Massachusetts First death confirmed in Massachusetts.
Minnesota First death confirmed in Minnesota.
16 June Florida First death confirmed in Florida.
Rhode Island First death confirmed in Rhode Island.
United States Virgin Islands First case confirmed in US Virgin Islands.
23 June Maryland First death confirmed in Maryland.
24 June North Carolina First death confirmed in North Carolina.
26 June American Samoa First case confirmed in American Samoa.
29 June Hawaii First death confirmed in Hawaii.
1 July Guam First case confirmed in Guam.
6 July Ohio First death confirmed in Ohio.
Nevada First death confirmed in Nevada.
10 July Indiana First death confirmed in Indiana.
Georgia (U.S. state) First death confirmed in Georgia.
15 July Nebraska First death confirmed in Nebraska.
Tennessee First death confirmed in Tennessee.
20 July Guam First death confirmed in Guam.
21 July Northern Mariana Islands First case confirmed in Northern Mariana Islands.
27 July Alaska First death confirmed in Alaska.
29 July Alabama First death confirmed in Alabama.
Colorado First death confirmed in Colorado.
3 August Iowa First death confirmed in Iowa.
6 August Kansas First death confirmed in Kansas.
Montana First death confirmed in Montana.
Mississippi First death confirmed in Mississippi.
8 August Arkansas First death confirmed in Arkansas.
10 August New Mexico First death confirmed in New Mexico.
13 August Maine First death confirmed in Maine.
Louisiana First death confirmed in Louisiana.
14 August United States First case of Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance confirmed.
17 August New Hampshire First death confirmed in New Hampshire.
19 August Wyoming First death confirmed in Wyoming.
28 August South Carolina First death confirmed in South Carolina.
2 September United States Virgin Islands First death confirmed in US Virgin Islands.
3 September Kentucky First death confirmed in Kentucky.
4 September West Virginia First death confirmed in West Virginia.
10 September United States First Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) resistance spread from person to person confirmed.
28 September Idaho First death confirmed in Idaho.
2 October South Dakota First death confirmed in South Dakota.
22 October Delaware First death confirmed in Delaware.
26 October North Dakota First death confirmed in North Dakota.
28 October President Obama declares H1N1 a National Emergency.[199]
Vermont First death confirmed in Vermont. All 50 states have confirmed H1N1 deaths.
4 November Iowa First feline zoonosis confirmed in Iowa.
19 November American Samoa First death confirmed in American Samoa.
Oregon First feline death confirmed in Oregon.
24 November West Virginia First double infection case confirmed in West Virginia.

The ECB Policy for Crisis Management


Trump – Mar-a-Lago – Coronavirus


President Trump declared a national emergency in Washington today. The market rallied on his announced measures and closed above the target number we provided for the close on the Pro Level of Socrates.

There was a big deal made about Brazil’s press secretary testing positive for the coronavirus. The questions were, of course, nasty and the president was questioned whether he was being selfish for not self-quarantining. He responded that he has no symptoms and his doctors have not advised him that he is at risk.

I am often invited to various political events by presidents. I have met with a number of presidents and have been invited to White House dinners. I was invited even to the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner with Bill Clinton. I thought he gave a very personal and fantastic speech that, politics aside, warranted a loud applause.

I have attended such events because it is important, from my perspective, to actually meet heads of state and see how they truly think for myself, unfiltered by the media. I was at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago over the weekend. I have received an email from the White House informing me that one person who attended that private event has “tested positive for the Coronavirus (COVID-19).  We do not know if the individual had the virus by the time of the event, but out of an abundance of caution, wanted to call this to your attention.  As you may have had contact with this individual, please contact your medical provider if you or any of your loved ones is ill or develops a fever, shortness of breath, or other respiratory symptoms.” 

There were about 300 private guests there so it was not a huge event. It was very private and our phones were sequestered so we could not record or take photos. On the way out, after they returned our phones, one person took a photo and the Secret Service immediately forced them to delete the photo. Trump was not there so it was obviously not related to him. We were all escorted to and from by the Secret Service so this was perhaps not a restriction to prevent photos or recordings of what was said, but to prevent photos of who was in attendance.

While the press is bashing Trump for not self-quarantining, the advice I have received also states to contact health officials if I develop symptoms. They do not know whether this press secretary was positive before the event. He tested positive three days later. As you can see, the email I received states clearly that it is not known when he was infected by the virus as it could have occurred before or after the event. But as always, the press exaggerates and omits the part that he was tested three days after the event and may not have even been infected on March 8th.

No worries. Things are far too chaotic in the world and I have no time to travel aside from the travel bans. I am just dealing with everyone around the world by Skype and phone calls. I too have no symptoms and I have been working from home on call 24 hours a day.