Posted originally on the CTH onNovember 8, 2024 | Sundance 

Responding to reporters’ questions, today President of the European Union commission Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Donald Trump then immediately began the framework to explain EU background discussions in economic terms. “We still get a lot of [liquified natural gas] from Russia, and why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices,” said Ursula von der Leyen.

The EU realizes the seismic shift that is upon them as a result of the U.S. election.  Everything from the Ukraine-Russia war; the economics of energy which President Trump will use in negotiations for peace; to the factual lowered prices within the EU created by Joe Biden energy policy to punish Americans; to funding for NATO in combination with the potential for the end of the Marshal Plan one-way tariffs are looming.  President von der Leyen is in a very precarious position.

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Ursula was speaking from ¹Budapest, Hungary.

While many are interpreting her remarks about purchasing LNG to be snuggling up to President Trump, factually it is a much bigger problem than western media will openly discuss.

President von der Leyden is trying to position herself against the Trump Doctrine.

Energy products do not belong to extraction companies. The oil and gas belong to We the People. It is a national resource value held by private individuals (landowners) and the government (public lands).

The U.S. Govt permits oil and gas companies to operate, and the companies pay fees to the government for approvals.

The government sells leases and permits for negotiated extraction. Biden hampered this process, cancelling leases, cancelling permits and shutting down pipelines and extraction processes that drove prices higher.

Let me explain what is coming with a question: Whose energy prices do you think Trump cares about? The price Americans pay, or the price Ursula and the Brussels bureaucracy pays?

America First!

President Trump’s geopolitical leverage is to stimulate energy production domestically, while controlling export permitting in the process.

Rember, Biden increased LNG exports and drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of his anti-Russia strategy.

The SPR oil sales made little impact on the global market and U.S. gasoline prices jumped.  Meanwhile, the pushed LNG exports drove domestic prices for natural gas higher.

President Trump’s “America First” MAGAnomics will reverse the Biden energy plan in part by limiting LNG export and dropping U.S domestic prices. This will lower inflation and transfer natural inflation to Europe.  The second part is to create leverage needed in the Ukraine/EU/Russia dynamic.

Russia is blocked from selling gas (or LNG) into the broader western global market. This creates an opportunity for Trump at the negotiating table.

Increasing production leases, expanding pipelines, reauthorizing terminal development, while simultaneously controlling (ie limiting) export contract approvals lowers domestic oil and gas prices.

Once domestic prices drop to a level that Trump feels is the most economically beneficial, only then does the other part of the equation come into play.

What Ursula said today was an attempt to pressure Trump to retain Biden policy of subsidizing the EU (via expanded energy exports) while the U.S. consumer pays more. Watch Trump say, “no deal.”

President Trump gets leverage toward Putin’s agreement (perhaps acquiescence) in Trump’s Ukraine peace deal by holding the carrot of renewed gas sales into the western (global) market; sanctions essentially removed, in combination with the withdrawal of U.S. LNG pumps into the same market.

Trump already said, “the gold under our feet” will drive his term-2 geopolitical strategy. This is the second iteration of the Trump doctrine.

Expanded energy product development will lower the U.S. cost of goods, ultimately lowering prices.  Inflation is then under better control.  The Green New Deal dies an immediate death.

In combination with targeted tariffs, the energy sector then becomes part of the geopolitical equation to attain global peace. Simultaneously, improving our position as a global energy provider generates the money to expand our economy and pay down debt.  “The gold under our feet.”

Throughout the process the dollar climbs in value against global currencies.  A climbing dollar weakens the BRICS group who are, understandably, attempting to remove the dollar as the dominant trade currency because a weaponized dollar (Russian sanctions regime) is against their interests.

China and the EU will try to devalue their currency as a tariff offset; however, both China and the EU are energy dependent.  The more they devalue their currency, the greater the impact to their own domestic price inflation.  This is a substantive difference between Trump term-1 tariffs, and Trump term-2 tariffs.

In this second term, President Trump now has the opportunity to leverage U.S energy production and global energy prices as a weapon to force China and the EU to feel the true impact of targeted tariffs.  President Trump then extends the benefit of his leverage position during his negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

If Asia balks, or if China tries to use their new and larger trade position for economic influence with Russia’s decision making, President Trump simply tells Beijing to back down or tariffs increase.

Ursula doesn’t stand a chance.

¹Budapest, Hungary.