El Erian Thinks the FED Will Flip-Flop on Rates in Response to Demand Side Contraction

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Mohamed El-Erian, a Blooomberg Opinion contributor, cracks me up in his efforts to avoid speaking directly.  Generally, El-Erian knows the situation, he was one of the first to identify the issue with inflation in March 2021.   However, he continues avoiding any mention that the U.S. economy is already in a negative position for growth.

Consider this…. In this interview El-Erian says he believes the Fed will flip-flop and lower rates in reaction to what is happening in the economy.  Keep in mind, the only reason for the Fed to reverse rates so quickly is if the economy is already in a demand side contraction and the latest .75% increase in rate is being done into a negative GDP environment.

Of course, the reality is exactly that.  The U.S. economy is already contracting, mostly because of inflation chewing up the supply side, and the Fed is factually raising interest rates into an economy already in a demand side recession.  But everyone must pretend that’s not the case, so here’s El-Erian saying Jerome Powell is going to end up reversing himself, flip-flopping, which doesn’t make sense if you don’t first establish that the economy is right now shrinking as he speaks.  WATCH:

Worse Than Watergate, Seven Members of Steven Colbert Television Crew Arrested Breaking Into Congressional Offices in DC Capitol

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

“On June 16, 2022, at approximately 8:30 p.m., U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) received a call for a disturbance in the Longworth House Office Building,” Capitol Police said in a statement obtained by the Washington Examiner. “Responding officers observed seven individuals, unescorted and without Congressional ID, in a sixth-floor hallway.” (read more)

Apparently, California congressman Adam Schiff was helping the television crew to break the law.  The group reportedly banged on doors of several Republican offices –  including that of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Lauren Boebert of Colorado — as they allegedly filmed a skit for Colbert’s “Late Show” program that was to center around the January 6 hearings.  The incident was covered by Jesse Watters on his broadcast this evening. WATCH:

President Trump Delivers Remarks During Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference, Nashville, TN

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today President Donald J Trump delivered remarks in Nashville, Tennessee, to the Faith and Freedom Coalition {Direct Rumble Link}.  WATCH:

Five Down, Five Term Tom Rice Primaried in South Carolina

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 14, 2022 | Sundance

The South Carolina republican club keeps an open primary election so they can coordinate with Democrats on key races.  The larger goal is to retain power.  As planned, democrats in/around Charleston voted to support Club candidate Nancy Mace as part of the power control.   However, at least Tom Rice was eliminated in district 07.

(Via Politico) […] Rep. Tom Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry. It’s the first time this year that a Republican impeachment backer has faced a challenger backed by Trump — and the results were emphatic, with Rice’s party support crashing to just a quarter of the vote. (read more)

The Rise in Violence – Who to Blame?

Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Texas school shooting is a politician’s dream, for they suddenly can pretend to care and look authoritative, the real culprit here, I fear, has been the COVID-19 lockdowns. What government will not talk about is the statistics. Homicides increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020. Overall, violence and aggravated assaults have increased.

The homicide rates normally increase in the summer months. The real culprit may be the additional social interaction that happens when people spend more time outdoors during the summer months, NewsNation reports. There’s simply a greater number of interactions happening, which means there are also more opportunities for them to go awry.

Everywhere we look, homicides are up. In Chicago, 228 people have been killed this year alone. In Philadelphia, over 200 homicides have already taken place in 2022. Houston exceeded 100 homicides so far in 2022.

The National Library of Medicine reported a drastic increase in homicides post-lockdowns in Peru. Even CNN reported that a series of homicides took place during the first six months of  2021. In 22 cities, the number of murders increased by 16% or greater compared to the same period in 2020 and by 42% compared to the first six months of 2019.

So while the elites are listening to Klaus Schwab, who will probably become an evil villain for a future movie, there is ZERO understanding of human nature. The sharp rise in homicides is NOT because of guns; lockdowns have driven many to extreme behavior and stress. There was a man killed over an argument involving a parking spot. I have a friend who worked in an office in Philadelphia. The violence is so great and random that the staff no longer need to go into the office.

Monkeypox is less deadly than smallpox, with a mortality rate below 4 percentNevertheless, there are those in governments actually talking about lockdown 2.0. Johns Hopkins University reported, “Lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe had little or no impact in reducing deaths from COVID-19, according to a new analysis. The lockdowns during the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 reduced COVID-19 mortality by about 0.2%, said a broad review of multiple scientific studies. We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality,” the researchers wrote.

I can say that I was tested for COVID-19 five times, and all were negative. I was still thrown into a COVID wing in the hospital, and when I explained I knew nobody with COVID, I was told that it did not matter. The nurses said it could travel in the air or I could have contracted it from pumping gas into my car. So I asked, “Do masks do not work?” They said, “Pretty much.” I asked why I needed TWO negative tests to be released. “Does one test not work?” They admitted that the tests were invalid. So after FIVE negative tests, they said, “OK, but we still think you had it.”

Another friend said his son in his early 20s is lost. Since the lockdowns, he stayed in his room, glued to social media. He will no longer have a conversation with his father. These lockdowns not only FAILED to work, but they appear to have caused significant damage psychologically to many, and the stress appears to have manifested in violence. It is time we face the fact that guns do not kill — people do. We need to respect what is taking place and stop the experiments for political power. Our computer’s forecast of a rise in civil unrest is manifesting before our very eyes.

North Carolina Lt Governor Mark Robinson Swings Big Timber During NRA Convention Speech

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 29, 2022 | Sundance

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson had a few things to say about protecting our schoolchildren and preserving our second amendment rights.   During a well-received NRA speech, Robinson was swinging big truth timber. {Direct Rumble Link}  ENJOY:


President Trump MAGA Rally, Casper Wyoming – 4pm MDT, 6pm EDT Livestream Links

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 28, 2022 | Sundance

Today, President Donald Trump heads to Casper, Wyoming, to hold a MAGA rally against the reelection of Liz Cheney and in support of her primary opponent, Harriet Hageman.  The venue is the Ford Wyoming Center and the president is scheduled to deliver remarks at 4:00pm MDT/6:00pm EDT – Livestream Links:

Trump Campaign Rumble Link – RSBN Rumble Link – RSBN YouTube Link





The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the County Employment and Wages Summary Wednesday [DATA HERE].  The economic tracking measures the employment and wage increases at a county level throughout 343 counties in the nation.

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 25, 2022 | Sundance | 158 Comments

The BLS measures the data on an annual basis from December 2020 through December 2021.  The average rate of wage growth at a county level was 5.9%, far lower than the measured 8.5% inflation rate.  That means real wages, the income of most Americans at the county level have dropped.

However, within the data Florida stands out as having the largest number of counties exceeding the national average.  23 Florida counties are included in the BLS tracking.  An incredible 21 out of 23 Florida counties have wage growth that far exceeds the national average. [BLS, Table-1]

Additionally, Florida holds the top spot for the highest annual rate of wage growth in Palm Beach County with 15.6%…. AND… Florida holds the top spot for the highest annual rate of wage growth amid the ten largest counties, with Miami-Dade wage gains of 11.1%. [BLS, Table-2]

Congratulations Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida workers.   You have the rare distinction of having wage growth overall that exceeds the BLS measured level of Biden inflation.   It’s no wonder why so many people are heading to Florida for jobs.

FREEDOM. If you keep it, they will come.

Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas Primary Election Night, Results and Open Discussion

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Sundance

Tonight, is the primary election vote for Alabama, Arkansas and the key races in Georgia.  Additionally, there are runoff races in Texas and Minnesota special elections.

The key contest most people will be watching is in Georgia, where GOPe Club Governor Brian Kemp is facing a challenge from former Senator David Perdue. The winner will face Stacey Abrams, a Democrat who is unopposed in her primary, in the general election.  This primary is open for people in either party to request ballots. There will be democrats voting with republican ballots, and the most favorable outcome would be for Kemp to be held under 50% of the vote.

President Trump-endorsed Hershel Walker is also running for the Senate on the Georgia republican ballot.

New York Times Election Results Here

Politico Election Results Here

CNN Election Results Here

Sarah Huckabee Sanders Easily Wins Arkansas Republican Primary Race for Governor

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Sundance

This is good news.  Former President Trump spokesperson, and daughter to the former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, Sarah Huckabee Sanders has easily won the republican primary election for Governor of Arkansas with more than 80 percent of the vote.   Who doesn’t like Sarah Huckabee Sanders?