El Erian Thinks the FED Will Flip-Flop on Rates in Response to Demand Side Contraction


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Mohamed El-Erian, a Blooomberg Opinion contributor, cracks me up in his efforts to avoid speaking directly.  Generally, El-Erian knows the situation, he was one of the first to identify the issue with inflation in March 2021.   However, he continues avoiding any mention that the U.S. economy is already in a negative position for growth.

Consider this…. In this interview El-Erian says he believes the Fed will flip-flop and lower rates in reaction to what is happening in the economy.  Keep in mind, the only reason for the Fed to reverse rates so quickly is if the economy is already in a demand side contraction and the latest .75% increase in rate is being done into a negative GDP environment.

Of course, the reality is exactly that.  The U.S. economy is already contracting, mostly because of inflation chewing up the supply side, and the Fed is factually raising interest rates into an economy already in a demand side recession.  But everyone must pretend that’s not the case, so here’s El-Erian saying Jerome Powell is going to end up reversing himself, flip-flopping, which doesn’t make sense if you don’t first establish that the economy is right now shrinking as he speaks.  WATCH:

Worse Than Watergate, Seven Members of Steven Colbert Television Crew Arrested Breaking Into Congressional Offices in DC Capitol


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

“On June 16, 2022, at approximately 8:30 p.m., U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) received a call for a disturbance in the Longworth House Office Building,” Capitol Police said in a statement obtained by the Washington Examiner. “Responding officers observed seven individuals, unescorted and without Congressional ID, in a sixth-floor hallway.” (read more)

Apparently, California congressman Adam Schiff was helping the television crew to break the law.  The group reportedly banged on doors of several Republican offices –  including that of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Lauren Boebert of Colorado — as they allegedly filmed a skit for Colbert’s “Late Show” program that was to center around the January 6 hearings.  The incident was covered by Jesse Watters on his broadcast this evening. WATCH:

President Trump Delivers Remarks During Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference, Nashville, TN


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today President Donald J Trump delivered remarks in Nashville, Tennessee, to the Faith and Freedom Coalition {Direct Rumble Link}.  WATCH:

Five Down, Five Term Tom Rice Primaried in South Carolina


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 14, 2022 | Sundance

The South Carolina republican club keeps an open primary election so they can coordinate with Democrats on key races.  The larger goal is to retain power.  As planned, democrats in/around Charleston voted to support Club candidate Nancy Mace as part of the power control.   However, at least Tom Rice was eliminated in district 07.

(Via Politico) […] Rep. Tom Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry. It’s the first time this year that a Republican impeachment backer has faced a challenger backed by Trump — and the results were emphatic, with Rice’s party support crashing to just a quarter of the vote. (read more)

North Carolina Lt Governor Mark Robinson Swings Big Timber During NRA Convention Speech


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 29, 2022 | Sundance

North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson had a few things to say about protecting our schoolchildren and preserving our second amendment rights.   During a well-received NRA speech, Robinson was swinging big truth timber. {Direct Rumble Link}  ENJOY:

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President Trump MAGA Rally, Casper Wyoming – 4pm MDT, 6pm EDT Livestream Links


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 28, 2022 | Sundance

Today, President Donald Trump heads to Casper, Wyoming, to hold a MAGA rally against the reelection of Liz Cheney and in support of her primary opponent, Harriet Hageman.  The venue is the Ford Wyoming Center and the president is scheduled to deliver remarks at 4:00pm MDT/6:00pm EDT – Livestream Links:

Trump Campaign Rumble Link – RSBN Rumble Link – RSBN YouTube Link

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the County Employment and Wages Summary Wednesday [DATA HERE].  The economic tracking measures the employment and wage increases at a county level throughout 343 counties in the nation.


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 25, 2022 | Sundance | 158 Comments

The BLS measures the data on an annual basis from December 2020 through December 2021.  The average rate of wage growth at a county level was 5.9%, far lower than the measured 8.5% inflation rate.  That means real wages, the income of most Americans at the county level have dropped.

However, within the data Florida stands out as having the largest number of counties exceeding the national average.  23 Florida counties are included in the BLS tracking.  An incredible 21 out of 23 Florida counties have wage growth that far exceeds the national average. [BLS, Table-1]

Additionally, Florida holds the top spot for the highest annual rate of wage growth in Palm Beach County with 15.6%…. AND… Florida holds the top spot for the highest annual rate of wage growth amid the ten largest counties, with Miami-Dade wage gains of 11.1%. [BLS, Table-2]

Congratulations Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Florida workers.   You have the rare distinction of having wage growth overall that exceeds the BLS measured level of Biden inflation.   It’s no wonder why so many people are heading to Florida for jobs.

FREEDOM. If you keep it, they will come.

Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas Primary Election Night, Results and Open Discussion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Sundance

Tonight, is the primary election vote for Alabama, Arkansas and the key races in Georgia.  Additionally, there are runoff races in Texas and Minnesota special elections.

The key contest most people will be watching is in Georgia, where GOPe Club Governor Brian Kemp is facing a challenge from former Senator David Perdue. The winner will face Stacey Abrams, a Democrat who is unopposed in her primary, in the general election.  This primary is open for people in either party to request ballots. There will be democrats voting with republican ballots, and the most favorable outcome would be for Kemp to be held under 50% of the vote.

President Trump-endorsed Hershel Walker is also running for the Senate on the Georgia republican ballot.

New York Times Election Results Here

Politico Election Results Here

CNN Election Results Here

Sarah Huckabee Sanders Easily Wins Arkansas Republican Primary Race for Governor


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Sundance

This is good news.  Former President Trump spokesperson, and daughter to the former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, Sarah Huckabee Sanders has easily won the republican primary election for Governor of Arkansas with more than 80 percent of the vote.   Who doesn’t like Sarah Huckabee Sanders?

Record Early Voting in Georgia as Major Primary Race Takes Place Next Week


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 21, 2022 | Sundance

May 21, 2022 | Sundance | 209 Comments

The early voting in Georgia is breaking all state records.  According to the GA secretary of state office statement yesterday, “through Wednesday, May 19th, over 565,000 people have early voted in Georgia—a 189% increase from the same point in the early voting period in the 2018 primary election and a 153% increase in the same point in the early voting period in the 2020 primary election.  This represents a voting scale 3x the rate of the 2018 mid-term election.

Obviously, Georgia voters are enthusiastic to vote in this primary.  The GA SoS reports party votes as, “Republican: 353,161, Democrat: 258,200, Nonpartisan: 4,017” through May 18th.  Yes, republican voters are far outpacing democrat early voters, but that shouldn’t be too surprising given the top of the ticket on the Democrat ballot is an uncontested primary race to install Stacey Abrams as the 2022 Democrat governor candidate.

Despite being in an uncontested race, the team behind Stacey Abrams is working hard to drive out their voter base.  As the Washington Post noted, Abram’s group ‘The New Georgia Project’, is working diligently to help Georgia Democrats make the right ballot selections.  Additionally, another allied group called ‘Black Voters Matter’, is using the ‘Souls to the Polls‘ strategy to make sure black voters get the primary outcome that matters most to them.

Against all of this extra emphasis on early voting success in Georgia there is a weird dynamic on the Republican side of the equation.  According to most general reporting from the media, there is a lot of enthusiasm on the GOP ballot to keep Brian Kemp as governor; however, oddly enough, it seems like Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is being positioned for defeat.  At least that’s the perspective of Politico and other similarly minded media.

Traditionally, if the historic pattern of republican ballots was used as an example, if the incumbent governor (Kemp) wins, then generally the incumbent secretary of state (Raffensperger) would win.  However, in this 2022 Georgia mid-term that’s not the narrative being established ahead of next Tuesday’s outcome.

The MSM political perspective is that republican Brian Kemp will easily win the primary for governor, but Brad Raffensperger will lose a primary challenge to republican Jody Hice, a Trump endorsement.   It would certainly be unusual for a Trump endorsed top of ticket candidate David Perdue to lose, and the Trump endorsed office on the next line to win – but that’s the general narrative and they are sticking to it.

The Trump-endorsed David Perdue camp is hoping to keep establishment Governor Brian Kemp under 50% and force a run-off special election.   However, the Trump-endorsed Jody Hice camp is looking for an outright victory in their secretary of state race.  Funny that.

DATA POINTS:

♦ Early voting in Georgia is setting records.

♦ Democrats have uncontested top of ticket candidate Stacy Abrams.

♦ Despite being uncontested, Stacey Abrams is pushing a massive voting effort.

♦ Black Votes Matter and The New Georgia Project are working earnestly.

♦ Republican Governor Brian Kemp is very confident of victory.

♦ Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is not so confident.

If one were to be a deep weeds political walker, you might suspect the data points could all be reconciled if the New Georgia Project was actually coordinating an effort for Democrats to vote for Brian Kemp, because the primary race is open to cross party voting.  However, that’s crazy conspiracy theory.  I’m certain it’s something else.

We will find out the outcome next Tuesday.

AUGUSTA, Georgia — Republicans in Georgia still seething about the 2020 presidential race say they would rather sit out the election in November if Trump’s candidate, former Sen. David Perdue, loses an upcoming GOP gubernatorial primary than ever support incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp.  

The animosity towards Kemp, whom several MAGA Republicans described as a “Judas” and “betrayer” for certifying Joe Biden’s win in 2020, is unlikely to affect the outcome of the May 24 primary. But it may hurt Kemp’s chances this fall in an anticipated rematch with presumed Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, the woman he narrowly beat in 2018 — with Trump’s support. (read more)