As discussed, the PCM model of the world’s temperature is based on identifying patterns and then finding equations that could generate a curve(s) that would match the observed data.  This is neither non-linear least squares fitting nor is it Gauss-Newton curve fitting as there is just too much noise or variability to the temperature data especially with the method used by NASA to handle raw data and prior to ~1850 there is only proxy data.  The assumptions used here for predicting temperature are that there were two source curves that were independent of each other but when added together with a reasonable factor for Carbon Dioxide gave the observed results.  We also needed a model for the Carbon Dioxide level and that was modeled using the form of a Gaussian distribution after the seasonable variance was removed using a mean value.  Once that was accomplished an equation was developed that could generate a plot that fit the NOAA data very well and it would transition smoothly back to the 1650 value of ~270 ppm. This gives a base to work from that led to the following equations.

In the model the base Temperature in 1650 (we use 1650 since that is the approximate low point in the little ice age) is set at TB = 13.215 C.  The long cycle LC is 1,052.63 years with a 1.48 C swing. The short cycle SC is 66.67 years with a swing of .30 C.   The forcing for CO₂ CL is calculated from 272 ppm for 1650 and taken to 800 ppm level by 2250 by a plot that matches NOAA data where available. The model starts in January 1650 and moves by an increments of 1 per month (M) from the starting point to the end of the simulation. Each increment of one adds one row to the spreadsheet.  So the following equations are what we use for the following example. If we wanted to calculate the value that NASA-GISS will give for November 2014 that would represent an M value of 4379 and that is all that is needed to solve for the temperature. This method appears to work well from 1000 AD through 2000 AD; so the prediction for November 2014 is calculated as follows:

1. The Long Cycle value is

LC = Sin (.00052359*M-1.57338795)*.74+.303784 = .791408 C

2. The Short Cycle value is

SC + Sin (.00785385 *M-19.2419325)*.15+.195341 = .274718 C

3. The CO₂ value is

CL = 550/(1+EXP(1+8.94+.002*M)+272 = 401.081 ppm

4. The Adder for CO₂ is

TC = -4.227 + (.75*LN(CL))) = .268623 C

5. The Temp. for 2014-11 will be:

Temp = 13.215 + LC + SC + TC = 14.550 C

The NASA-GISS temperature for June, July, and August 2013 is 14.58 C

The PCM model projection for the same period is 14.56 C

The concern over global warming as observed during the 70’s 80’s and 90’s was not unreasonable since Carbon Dioxide, a known “greenhouse” gas (we use this term even though it is wrong as explained in point six), levels were going up and global temperatures were also going up.  The politicians that wanted to act got involved and created a solution before the apparent problem was even understood.  The green energy, sustainability and save the planet slogans that were developed and even the greenhouse effect words were all designed to convince the citizens that things must be changed or there would be dire consequences. The IPCC climate models will eventually be fixed to work as they will eventually realize that something is not working the way they thought.  Unfortunately the political damage has already been done as we poor hundreds billions of dollars into changing how we produce energy to fix a non-existent problem.  The sooner we can get past this the less time, effort and resources will be wasted and we can use them for much better purposes.