Posted originally on Nov 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
US manufacturing turned down in October on the PMI index, dropping from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. Price pressure may have eased (58 from 61.9), but production (48.2 from 51), inventory (45.8 from 47.7), and deliveries (54.2 from 52.6) have all declined.
Employment in the sector continued to decline (46 from 45.3), and 67% of panelist noted that companies are working on managing their current workforce rather than hiring. Again, lower rates are unlikely to address this structural problem or encourage companies to expand during a contracting business environment. Eight consecutive months of decline should be a warning as manufacturing declines often precede recessions, or in this case, ongoing stagflation.
Tariffs may be harming new orders and exports, but US manufacturing has been on the downswing far longer than April 2025. There are deeper structural forces at play from regulatory burdens to high corporate taxes and supply chain stress, but most notably, other countries are not interested in buying. Everyone is grappling with their own debt burdens and the global economy, not merely the US, has been contracting overall.
Manufacturing is not driving the US economy. The current administration has been keen on expanding the sector but orders are down and this has proven to be more than a temporary drop. Capital is fleeing to non-traditional assets as confidence in the established economic framework continues to decline.
Posted originally on Nov 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
George W. Bush Jr. called the politician’s passing “a loss to the nation and a sorrow to his friends.” Bush was just the patsy, and obviously, he is still in the dark that Dick Cheney was the warmongering President, not Bush. Cheney just loved war. During the 2024 presidential election when he declared now-President Donald Trump a threat to the republic and endorsed Democrat Kamala Harris who would be the patsy to allow the Neocons to continue to run the White House. These people have no problem sending other people’s children to die for the personal hatred and ambitions.
AT least King Louis XIV lament on his deathbed: “I have been too fond of war.” Those are words you will NEVER hear come from the lips of a Neocon. His daughter carries on his tradition of hatred.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes.
That abuse of power ends now.
Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people. pic.twitter.com/VuU8O68zCG
— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) October 6, 2025
Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the US intelligence agencies. Questioning the results of the 2020 Presidential Election was seen as a direct threat to Biden’s power, resulting in Operation Arctic Frost—a secret spying campaign carried out against the “Biden administration enemies list.”
Former Special Counsel Jack Smith led an investigation that resulted in 197 subpoenas to 34 individuals and 163 businesses. Over 430 Republicans were labeled as “enemies” by Biden’s Justice Department and placed under intense surveillance. The FBI and Department of Justice conducted Operation Arctic Frost to gather intelligence on anyone who dared to speak out against the Democrats.
Questioning the results of an election is not a crime, protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. Creating false documents to demonize one’s opponent as a foreign government shill, as was done by those responsible for the Stelle Dossier, is also unpunishable. Yet, the weaponized DOJ under Biden was permitted to carry out Stasi-level spying campaigns against anyone who opposed Joe Biden.
It is well-known that Donald Trump was under intense surveillance. His personal residence was raided under false pretenses during one of countless attempts to indict him before the 2024 election. Smith’s offensive attack attempted to take down hundreds of others.
Several banks were asked to provide US intelligence agencies with data on donor analytics. The government demanded that banks detail who was funding the GOP. Phone companies like Verizon and AT&T were shaken down and required to turn over all communications from GOP Senate offices and various individuals. AT&T, for example, refused to permit intelligence agencies to tap Senator Ted Cruz’s personal and business phone lines. Obama-appointed Jude James Boasberg then legally prohibited AT&T from disclosing that the information was requested. Boasberg ruled that these phone companies would be found guilty of “destruction of evidence” if they notified the targeted lawmakers of the subpoenas. In fact, phone carriers were asked to hand over personal data on nearly a quarter of all Senate Republicans.
Fox News, CBS, Fox Business, Sinclair, and Newsmax were subpoenaed and ordered to turn over all communications records. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was targeted as the FBI and DOJ needed to know the group’s financial activity, transactions, and all communications. The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) was subpoenaed, as was Event Strategies, Inc. Apple Inc was subpoenaed for all Trump-related communications and January 6 prison choir records.
Trump’s most prominent advisors lost all privacy and were placed under careful watch. Anyone associated with Donald Trump was targeted as a criminal. “It exposes every call we made, who, every call coming into us, and every call that we place going out. So it also exposes all of that information. And why they did it is what we want to know. And then, in addition to phone numbers and trolling our tolls, did they also go after content and data?” Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn) told reporters, adding that Smith must be disbarred.
“Jack Smith did not act alone. Yes, he was a special counsel. He was appointed by Merrick Garland, and he had responsibilities to report to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, Joe Biden’s attorney general, under the rules regarding special counsel. Merrick Garland was a member of Joe Biden’s cabinet. He was willing to do whatever Joe Biden and his political operation wanted him to do, including destroying President Trump, including abusing our justice system for partisan purposes,” Senator Johnson explained. Jack Smith led the operation but countless agencies played a major role.
Senator Johnson repeated Joe Biden’s own words: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our Republic.” A year later in New York City, “Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.” Biden declared war against his political opponents and their supporters, yet no one could have realized the extent he would go.
Richard Nixon attempted a similar plan during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his downfall. His campaign orchestrated a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters to steal documents and wiretap phones of Nixon’s political opponents. Nixon was found guilty of political espionage, misuse of government agencies, and attempting to obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign and later pardoned.
Technology has advanced significantly since the 1970s. No one needed to physically break into a building to acquire records and tap phone lines. Watergate pales in comparison to Arctic Frost, which was broader in scope and far more intrusive.
“If they would do that to the president of the United States, if they would do this to United States senators and members of Congress, what would they do to you, people who don’t enjoy the bully pulpit or the platform that elected representatives have? This ought to be a chilling message to each and every American who loves this great country and believes in our constitutional system and equal justice under the law,” Senator Cornyn questioned.
The corruption of Joe Biden’s administration will be the death of the Democratic Party. Dictators target their political enemies and supporters, using government agencies to monitor any and all dissent. Democracy cannot survive under these conditions.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Ohh you’re gonna love this one!!
Barack Obama: “Shutting down the government just because you don’t like a law that was passed… no Congress has ever been irresponsible enough to threaten an economic shutdown… I will not negotiate on anything..”
The following documents outline the reasoning behind the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
As explained by Chairman Jason Smith of the Ways and Means Committee: “Democrats shut down the government to put illegal immigrants ahead of Americans, attempting to undo vital reforms that Republicans enacted just three months ago. Hardworking Americans should not be paying taxes in order to subsidize the health care of those here illegally. But that’s exactly what Democrats are demanding in order to reopen the government.”
Click here to read the One Big Beautiful Bill. “Subtitle B—Health” details explicitly the changes to Medicaid and ensures that illegal aliens do not receive government aid:
CHAPTER 1—MEDICAID
SUBCHAPTER A—REDUCING FRAUD AND IMPROVING ENROLLMENT PROCESSES
Sec. 71101. Moratorium on implementation of rule relating to eligibility and enrollment in Medicare Savings Programs.
Sec. 71102. Moratorium on implementation of rule relating to eligibility and enrollment for Medicaid, CHIP, and the Basic Health Program.
Sec. 71103. Reducing duplicate enrollment under the Medicaid and CHIP programs.
Sec. 71104. Ensuring deceased individuals do not remain enrolled.
Sec. 71105. Ensuring deceased providers do not remain enrolled.
Sec. 71106. Payment reduction related to certain erroneous excess payments under
Medicaid.
Sec. 71107. Eligibility redeterminations.
Sec. 71108. Revising home equity limit for determining eligibility for long-term care
services under the Medicaid program.
Sec. 71109. Alien Medicaid eligibility.
Sec. 71110. Expansion FMAP for emergency Medicaid.
SUBCHAPTER B—PREVENTING WASTEFUL SPENDING
Sec. 71111. Moratorium on implementation of rule relating to staffing standards for
long-term care facilities under the Medicare and Medicaid programs.
Sec. 71112. Reducing State Medicaid costs.
Sec. 71113. Federal payments to prohibited entities.
SUBCHAPTER C—STOPPING ABUSIVE FINANCING PRACTICES
Sec. 71114. Sunsetting increased FMAP incentive.
The Democrats disagree with this portion of the bill, among others, but let’s look at the exact text surrounding the health care for illegals debacle.
Sec. 71109. Alien Medicaid eligibility.
Section 71109 shortens the list of eligible migrants covered by Medicaid. The One Big Beautiful Bill prohibits Medicaid for paying to assist anyone who does not fall under the following four categories: : (1) U.S. citizens and U.S. nationals; (2) certain U.S. lawful permanent residents (excluding, tourists, visitors, diplomats, and students temporarily in the U.S.); (3) Cuban and Haitian entrants; and (4) individuals in the U.S. under a Compact of Free Association with the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau. Hospitals and health care providers will no longer receive federal assistance to treat people who have entered the US illegally or overstayed their visas.
originally on Posted Nov 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Financiers are deserting Wall Street in search of asylum from socialist policies. Miami is a hot spot for Wall Street refugees, but another notable area has garnered attention that those in the industry are terming “Y’all Street.”
Dallas, Texas, has a rapidly expanding ecosystem of financial institutions, private equity firms, fintech companies, hedge funds, and major banks. Areas like Uptown, Downtown, and Victory Park have seen a massive migration of financial service professionals from New York and now host around 380,000 finance sector workers.
Goldman Sachs plans to open a $500 million, 800,000 square-foot location in 2028 and will need to hire or relocate 5,000 employees. Goldman has always operated in Texas, but this new facility will more than double the number of employees in the area. New York remains Goldman’s largest headquarters, but that may change in the coming years as the price of business is more than anyone is willing to pay.
JPMorgan Chase has recently erected a massive 60-story, $3 billion building on 270 Park Avenue, which hosts approximately 10,000 employees. JPMorgan has over 300,000 employees worldwide, 24,000 of whom reside in NYC. However, they have 18,000 people on the ground in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and plan to expand. “It shouldn’t have been that way, but Texas loves you being there,” CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg in 2023.
Texas overall now contains more financial sector workers than New York, at 519,000 and 507,000, respectively. The Texas state constitution provides the financial sector with a major advantage. The state does not collect a personal income tax, whereas New York imposes fines of up to 10.9% on individuals and between 6.5% and 7.25% on corporations. Corporate and franchise taxes are lower in Texas as well, resulting in significantly lower operational costs.
The regulatory environment in Texas is pro-business: there are few state-level mandates. New York continues to add exchange-specific regulations in addition to federal mandates. As an example, New York began to require DEI diversity quotas on boards during the woke outbreak. The environment is ever-changing along the lines of shifting societal norms rather than cut and dry business.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on September 30, 2025, authorized the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) to operate as a national securities exchange. BlackRock, Citadel, Charles Schwab, and other major institutions are behind the exchange startup that will launch early next year. The TXSE plans to focus on mid-and large-cap issuers through high listing standards and a single-tier exchange model. Those behind the exchange believe that it will help increase the number of IPOs by reducing the regulatory and financial burdens.
Wall Street’s heyday has come and gone. Those of us who had the chance to experience the floor of the NYSE understand the significance of this loss.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Is it true that the Romans found that this Balkan region would sign a treaty to end a war, regroup, and then start again, as they did with the Minsk agreement? If true, then what they say about the region goes back thousands of years.
BP
ANSWER: I guess you have been digging into ancient history. Yes, in fact, the Roman Emperor Trajan (98-117AD) even issued a coin showing him standing between two trophies representing the first Dacian War which ended in a peace treaty, which they then broke, and he launch a second campaign against them representing the second trophy.
Rome conquered the entire region, but it did not erase local identities. Instead, it created a new, overarching layer of identity: becoming part of the Roman Empire. The main divide was between the civilized Roman world and the “barbarian” outside. Within the empire, people were Romans or non-Romans, not primarily “ethnic” rivals.
Posted originally on Nov 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
We will be sending out notices for the portal where those attending the 2025 World Economic Conference (WEC) can start to pull down your materials. Since this is our 40th Anniversary, we are also including some of the handouts from the first WEC in 1985. We are including some reports on trading, such as “Why the Majority Must Always be Wrong.”
Posted originally on Nov 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Former President Joe Biden’s likeliness and name was forged by unelected White House staffers. His administration knew the extent of his mental decline and assumed the role of Commander-in-Chief to the bafflement of society. Aside from Hunter Biden, Joe Biden did not directly grant pardons to the 4,245 criminals who were released onto the streets by autopen forgery.
Republicans on the House Oversight Committee are urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to act, as the nearly year-long investigation “deems void President Biden’s executive actions that were signed using the Autopen, and the committee determines that action by the Department of Justice is warranted to address the legal consequences of that determination.”
“Our report reveals how key aides colluded to mislead the public and the extraordinary measures they took to sustain the appearance of presidential authority as Biden’s capacity to function independently diminished, said Kentucky Republican Rep. James Comer, the committee’s chairman. “Executive actions performed by Biden White House staff and signed by autopen are null and void.”
Those responsible for issuing decrees on Biden’s behalf are not named in the review. Fourteen staffers have been interviewed, and the committee has a general idea of who is responsible. Biden’s personal family friend, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, must also be investigated as he played a key role in hiding Biden’s cognitive deterioration.
Biden’s handlers still maintain that the former president was responsible for issuing each pardon. Keyword: handlers—the former president has not made a recent public statement on these claims.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., publicly stated on numerous occasions that he was prevented from speaking with Joe Biden directly. The one opportunity Johnson had to face Biden was disastrous. Johnson asked the president why he halted LNG exports to Europe, but the president insisted he never issued that order. “Mr. President, yes, you did. It was an executive order like three weeks ago,” Johnson replied before explaining the damage it caused to the EU and US economies.
Speaker Johnson spills the tea
Joe has been signing executive orders without knowing what he’s signing, and not remembering what he’s signed
We need a thorough investigation into how this could happen
“He genuinely did not know what he had signed,” Johnson said. “And I walked out of that meeting with fear and loathing because I thought, ‘We are in serious trouble — who is running the country?’ Like, I don’t know who put the paper in front of him, but he didn’t know,” he said.
The Founding Fathers did not put any protections against these actions in the Constitution because it is unfathomable. Only the president has the authority to grant pardons—period. Fauci, Milley, and the entire January 6 committee deserve to see their day in court for the crimes committed against the American people. What other decisions were made by aides? The Biden Administration will be remembered as the most corrupt in the nation’s history.
Posted originally on Nov 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Bill Kristol not just as an individual but as a representative figure of the neoconservative network via his father, Irving Kristol. I know Bill, and we have been to dinner many times. He spoke at one of our conferences back in the 1990s, and he was not so neoconservative back then. He attempted to steal the election away from Trump by forcing it into the House to uphold the establishment. Most recently, Kristol made headlines for “endorsing” communist NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.
“He’s not going to destroy it, I don’t think. He’s gonna set up five silly government-run grocery stores, I guess. I don’t think he even will do that [inaudible]. And so they’ll be fine. So there’ll be some grocery store somewhere and it won’t be as good as the privately run ones, and it will go out of business in three years and it’ll be a little bit of a waste of taxpayer money, you know? Or it’ll be harmless, you know? And so people—I do think the right’s reaction to Mamdani has been a little hysterical. He’s a very impressive politician. I don’t know that he’s going to be a very good mayor. He’s 33 years old, he’s never run anything. They’re good people who could work for him though, in New York.”
Kristol is downplaying Mamdani’s destructive power he will unleash on the city of New York. The consequences will span further than a few failed grocery stores. Capital is fleeing the once great city of New York. Zohran Mamdani will be the death of New York City and the beginning of the end of democracy in America. If someone with his policies were to run even a decade ago, the world would have laughed him off. The extremist views on the left have pushed the blind masses to vote for the most extreme candidate, even if they dislike or fail to understand their views.
Socialists feed on increased taxation to support the welfare state, which comprises their voter base. They need people who are utterly dependent on big government to gain and maintain control. Equality to a Socialist means that everyone is equal in poverty. Not only does he want to raise property taxes, but he stated that “wealthier and predominantly white neighborhoods” in New York City should disproportionately shoulder the majority of the tax burden.
Why would anyone want to conduct business in an environment that opposes capitalism? Why would anyone not living on the welfare state chose to live in a system where they are punished for productivity? Capital shifts alter society. Wall Street is fleeing to Miami. Government overreach, tax burden redistribution, welfare expansion, and collapse of civic order all lead to capital flight. The fact that someone like Mamdani could even be considered as a potential candidate is enough to cause capital to flee.
Confidence collapses when the money run dry. It is fascinating how the 309.6-year cycle, marked by the time when NYC was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1975, aligns precisely with the year NYC was founded in 1665. New York City will turn down sharply in 2026—51.6 years from the 1975 crisis. Blue states are at risk of big government socialism. Ponzi schemes always seem great in the beginning.
Posted originally on Nov 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Government officials are rapidly moving onto US military bases for security. The Atlantic reported that Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Kristi Noem, and other senior officials have relocated to US bases around Washington, D.C. These officials have received personal threats and have been notified by intelligence agencies that civil unrest is inevitable.
This is an extremely unusual occurrence as these homes were typically used by high-ranking military officers. These officials have been doxxed by the legacy media. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was forced to relocate and the Daily Mail published her Navy Yard address. The staffers who relocated are considered temporary residents, but they would not have been able to move if not grants permission from the administration.
Critics argue that the lines between the military and civilian leaders have been blurred, and argue that public servants should reside among the public they serve. The issue is that these individuals are receiving an alarming number of death threats as civil unrest boils over into political violence. It is doubtful that these officials are happy about the move themselves, but it is essential for security.
The president is also preparing for political violence. The controversial White House ballroom renovation includes an undisclosed security feature. The original East Wing, built in 1902, featured an underground bunker. The Presidential Emergency Operations Center (PEOC) was used during World War II and the 9/11 premeditated demolitions. The White House has been focusing on the ballroom renovation with little discussion of the updated security features that will be added to the existing bunker.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
