Posted originally on the CTH on October 15, 2023 | Sundance 

I was reviewing a Wall Street Journal article about the Sinai border between Egypt and Gaza and various Western opinion about Egypt’s unwillingness to allow Palestinian refugees to cross the heavily controlled border.

For those who do not know the deep background, the Western media context looks troublesome {GO DEEP}. However, I rise in defense of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, because we have tracked and discussed the issues for a long time. Egypt is in a very difficult position right now, and with Obama/Biden in the White House – the challenge is made even worse. First the WSJ framing of the issue:

TEL AVIV— A diplomatic effort to evacuate U.S. citizens from Gaza faltered after Egyptian officials said they would only allow foreigners to cross the border if aid could pass in the opposite direction.

Egypt’s refusal on Saturday, confirmed by three officials and in an announcement on state television, thwarted the latest U.S. push to evacuate any of the 500 or more Americans in Gaza wishing to leave through the enclave’s southern border with Egypt.

Israel—which has sealed off Gaza’s northern border with a ground invasion by Israeli forces believed imminent—said Saturday that it would give a few hours of safe passage for people in northern Gaza to move southward. A doctor in Gaza said corpses were piling up in the main hospital’s morgue and under rubble from Israeli airstrikes launched in response to Hamas militants’ lightning strike into Israel last Saturday.

[…] Egypt is apprehensive about the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees being displaced into Egypt, or of getting drawn deeper into the conflict. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, an ardent enemy of Hamas, has also warned that a mass displacement from the enclave could mean an end to the aspirations of a Palestinian state.

Egypt told the U.S. that it has too many evacuation requests to accommodate U.S. nationals and that it can’t grant passage to one country over others, according to two Egyptian officials, who also cited security concerns related to a lack of screening of individuals. On the Palestinian side, damage from an Israeli missile has hindered access to the Rafah crossing.

Yet, Sisi earlier this week ordered tents to be pitched in the Egyptian towns of Sheikh Zuweid and Rafah, in preparation for potentially having to accept refugees from Gaza. He also ordered the creation of a 8.5-mile wide, 500-meter deep buffer zone in Rafah.

Israel’s military said Gazans could safely travel along two major routes south for six hours before 4 p.m. local time, as its forces prepare for an expected ground invasion aimed at routing Hamas. (read more)

Western media never discuss the extreme lengths al-Sisi had to go through in 2014 through 2017 to clear out the radical Islamists from Egypt.  After Sisi kicked out the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, ISIS, enablers), he became the mortal enemy of tribal terrorism.  The various terrorist elements put a fatwah on the head of Sisi and commanded all members of the Islamic Jihad to target Egypt.

It was President al-Sisi who destroyed all the Hamas tunnels from the Sinai into Gaza, and there were hundreds of them.  It took years and was painfully difficult for the Egyptian military to remove the extremist elements, culminating in a heavily fortified border between Gaza and Egypt.  For Sisi now to look at the potential of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian sympathizers to Hamas setting up camp in his country, he must have very serious concerns.

The Sinai region is a tenuous challenge already for Sisi, and that was highlighted by the horrific terrorist attack that took place in 2017 in retaliation against Egypt for the border security measures.

Against the backdrop of the first border opening between Egypt’s northern Sinai and Gaza, and against the ongoing efforts by the al-Sisi led coalition to move toward peace between Arabs and Israelis, the extremists strike back in 2017 with a horrific terrorist attack against the Al Rawdah mosque in Bir al-Abed, west of El Arish, the main city in North Sinai. 235 people were killed and hundreds more wounded {link}

It took President al-Sisi years to secure Egypt from the extremist elements and protect the Egyptian people.  The fact that Sisi is a singular and respected figure, who came from the Egyptian army to stop the Islamic jihad and the implementation of Sharia Law represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, has always been a problem.  With Sisi there is peace and strength; but like Donald Trump President Sisi is one man.

By an overwhelming majority, the nation of Egypt wants Sisi to remain as President, because quite frankly he is irreplaceable.  The delicate balance of peace in Egypt rests on his shoulders.  Think about it.  On his Western border he has Libya in a state of crisis with extreme jihadist elements.  On his Eastern border he has Hamas, and now everyone expects Sisi to import a faction of an entire population quite comfortable with Islamic extremism.   This is not a good position to be in.

Egypt doesn’t want the refugees, not because Egypt is heartless to their plight, but factually because inside that population of refugees is a radical element that could reignite the Sinai region all over again….  And, if the worst does happen, no one will be there to help President al-Sisi except an already pressured Egyptian military.

Jordan is full of refugees already, and King Abdullah manages his own tinderbox.  Syria is a hot mess of factional/tribal extremism, and if Egypt is not careful the Syrian model, or even the Libyan situation could easily be the fate for Egypt.

Hamas hates al-Sisi for disrupting their ability to smuggle weapons across the border.  Topping this off, the Obama/Biden administration undermines Egypt at every opportunity.  It has always been visible just below the surface that the U.S. supports the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar; the Obama/Biden alignment against Egypt is just one part of this dynamic.

From the State Dept/CIA perspective, they would enjoy the Palestinian/Hamas sentiment triggering renewed jihadist chaos in Egypt.   Again, President Sisi is in a tough place.

I’m not sure how this is going to end, but I find myself very sympathetic to the dynamic that President Sisi is facing.  What right do Western leaders have to demand Egypt open their borders to known terrorists?

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Hamas troops penetrated the Iron Dome and descended upon Israel this weekend, murdering and kidnapping civilians. Israel has declared war on Palestine, and US warships are in route to the area. The West supports Israel through and through, but it comes as no coincidence that Biden provided Iran with $6 billion in September.

Now Iran sees Palestine as the West sees Ukraine – cannon fodder for a proxy war. Disposable. The Iranian Parliament was seen chanting “DEATH TO ISRAEL. DEATH TO AMERICA” on the day the attacks began. Palestine has an even more powerful ally – CHINA. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in June for a three-day visit. “We have always firmly supported the just cause of the Palestinian people to restore their legitimate national rights,” Xi stated.

Peace talks between Palestine and Israel ended in 2014. China may have mended tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but Israel-Palestine is another issue entirely. The land dispute in this region can be traced back to biblical days. Historians believe Palestine comes from the word “Philistia” or Philistines who are cited in the Torah and Old Testament as sworn enemies of the Jews. Muslims, Christians, and Jews alike know the story of King David battling the Philistines to become king of Israel, albeit they all interpret him a bit differently. You can read a rough overview of events here.

This is MASSIVE. Some are calling this Israel’s 9/11 as the attacks are completely unprecedented. In fact, Biden gave Iran $6 billion last month on the 22nd anniversary of 9/11 for good measure. The US military PAID $3.3 billion to Israel in 2022 and helped them develop the Iron Dome, which was thought to be almost impenetrable unless someone gave away those state secrets ($). Every adult in Israel has received basic military training, and everyone is prepared for war. So we think young men in their 20s from a terrorist militia managed to penetrate the Iron Dome without help from a foreign power?

Who benefits here? Palestine and Israel will fight to the death and have been awaiting an opportunity to do so. There will be untold casualties and this is a very unfortunate moment in history. Russia sees the West is about to stretch their resources extremely thin. China may also prove to be the main victor as the West is distracted with two separate wars, both of which China has managed to avoid direct participation in…for now. Again, Mahmoud Abbas likened his struggles with Palestine to what China faces with Taiwan in terms of the modern world not supporting their view of how the map should look. China sent “technical delegations” to support Palestine earlier this summer. Their alliance is not new.

The computer had been predicting a large uptick in the war cycle, but I personally could not have predicted an attack of this nature. The lines have been drawn in the sand and sides have been solidified. The West is now deeply involved in two proxy wars and there is no going back.