Catalonia to Separate from Spain?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, when you were here in Barcelona, you said that Catalonia would vote to separate from Spain. Most thought you would be wrong. I myself confess I was not sure you would be right. Well you were right, or your amazing computer was correct, and the fever to separate only grows bolder. Do you still see this and the ultimate end of the EU?

ANSWER: Yes, but this is a process that is slow. The speed will being to pick up next year and it appears to be increasing in velocity between 2018 and 2022. El Pais ran a story: “Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held” with the leaked excerpts from what appears to be the Catalonian regional government’s road map to independence. The secret document included a plan where the region would unilaterally break away from Spain if Madrid tried to prevent its citizens from holding a referendum on independence in the fall. The proposed question is straight forward:

“Do you want Catalonia to be a state that is independent from Spain?”

I reported back in 2015 that Barcelona was preparing to issue its own electronic currency. Since then, the city is still moving forward with a plan to introduce its own currency, despite warnings from Spain’s central bank. The new so-called “social currency” would be used to buy local goods and services at a discount while having a one to one parity with the euro. This is plan B in order to set up for separation. Catalonia is the richest region in Spain and is supporting the rest of the country. So it is very much like Margaret Thatcher once warned, that Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money. That is exactly what is taking place in Spain. They have been bleeding Catalonia dry.

The real question is what will Spain do? Spain is the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy. It is distinctly on the verge of breaking up. Spain and the EU seem intent upon not letting that happen. If there is any attempt by force from Madrid under the pretense of a police action, then the gloves will come off.

Madrid will take drastic actions, including that will most likely first attempt to invoke article 155 of the constitution, which will effectively put an end to all forms of Catalan self governance. Will the people tolerate that? This will not merely strengthen the resolve of Catalan separatists, it could very well lead to a civil war erupting between 2018 into 2020, but the latest we should see the separation is by 2022.

The previous Spanish Civil War took place between 1936 and 1939 lasting about 3 years. It broke out when the Spanish army in Morocco led by General Francisco Franco, rose up against the democratically elected Republican government, presided over by Manuel Azaña. Typically, there will be a divergence and split within the military. That is how these things erupt. We may see this in the USA also around 2022, which may be a contagion at that time. The potential for the collapse of the EU looms on the horizon for 2022.

Hamburg Still Seizing Property for Refugees


germany-refugee-shelter

Back in October 2015, we reported that “in response to the refugee crisis, the German city of Hamburg has enacted a new law that will enable the government to seize vacant commercial properties to provide temporary housing for refugees. The law will go into effect next and will last until March 2017. Despite the additional measures, many refugees will die of exposure during the cold German winter.”

Hamburg authorities confiscated six residential units in the Hamm district near the city center. The city is now renovating the properties and will rent them against the will of the owner to tenants chosen by the city. Worse yet, all renovation costs will be billed to the owner of the properties.

Hamburg is still at it and this raises serious questions about the right to property in Germany. The measure is obviously unconstitutional, but exactly why it has not been stopped raises even more concern. Those who seriously think the Euro will be fine since Macron won the French election remind me of the old joke about the optimist and the pessimist who are blown off the top of a 100 story building in New York City. The pessimist immediate begins to pray for forgiveness. The optimist as he is passing the fourth floor says: “Well, so far so good!

Local Police Writing Tickets for Anything


COMMENT: Hi Martin

Message from the UK.

My brother went into town, and he put a cigarette out on the pavement.

Because he took 2 steps away from it before picking it up, he was told,

“l believe it was your intention to walk away instead of putting it in the bin”

Of which his response was, you just saw me pick it up and put it in the bin

They fined him on the spot 80 pounds.

A

REPLY: Local governments are the worst. They will be attacking people for anything and everything to fine them. Another person wrote in that they were fined for pouring a coffee in the street drain $100. I mention when I parked at Starbucks in a private parking lot, the first car was over the space line so every other car was slightly over by about 12 inches. I came out and there was the cop pulled in behind everyone so you could not leave and gave everyone parking tickets on private property. Totally illegal. But you pay $75 for the fine or take a day off from work. They know what they are doing.

A friend was given a ticket for looking at their cell phone while at a red light. They went to court to prove they were not texting or talking. They looked at Google Maps. The Judge said you are not even allowed to look at your phone and fined the $250.

This is insane for it cannot continue like this without causing society to just snap. This is how revolutions are formed. Those who work for government become abusive and arrogant. They end up becoming the criminals

The Drive to End Democracy in France


The democratic decision-making process actually dreaded by many politicians as too much work. France’s new president, Emmanuel Macron, would like to be able to make decisions in the social field without the hassle of discussion. And so the Parliament, which was to be elected in June, was to give Macron the authority to conclude reforms with his decrees. This requires a majority. Whether Macron’s new party, “La République en Marche”, reached this goal, it is questionable whether the other parties want to give their power to the president. It appears eliminating the right to vote is becoming much more in fashion.

Draghi Says Anyone Leaving the EU Must Pay But EU Will Not Refund Surpluses


In the Netherlands, the Forum For Democracy leader Thierry Baudet confronted Mario Draghi of the ECB asking that since he had said anyone leaving must pay the ECB and exit fee of whatever they owe, he said that since the Netherlands had €100bn surplus at the ECB they should get it back is others who owe the ECB must pay.
Mario Draghi stated bluntly, NO! In other words,  the view at the ECB is what is yours is their’s and what is their is their’s.  We have put together a very important report on the Euro covering all the issues and why it is really doomed.

While some analysts claim the Euro is here to stay, it is obvious that such people have no real insight or sources behind the curtain. The consequences of the failure to euro are far greater than anyone suspects.

Nobody thought that BREXIT was the end of the Euro since the UK was not a member of the Eurozone. What is much more serious has been the rising anti-Euro base throughout Europe which is about now one-third. However, Le Pen defeated all mainstream parties so the election came down to Macron who began his own party last August and Le Pen. This was a major victory in itself for the anti-establishment forces. None of this touches upon the brewing banking crisis, the EU passage of Bail-Ins for banks, or the political crisis. The European Central Bank is the single central bank in crisis and at risk of actually failing. This may be the most shocking threat on the horizon for Europe. Merkel’s victory in the fall will be the final signal that then end is near over the next 3 years for it will guarantee no reforms. The EU has already rejected the platform of Macron that he used to get elected. When the French see that nothing will really change and his push for dictatorial powers, expect civil unrest to rise.

This report will be available after the Hong Kong Conference

Brussels & Berlin Reject the Core of Macron’s Political Campaign


Emmanuel Macron has shown just how inexperienced he is when it comes to international trade. Both Berlin and Brussels have rejected Macron’s central platform in his election campaign that all government purchases should be made from exclusively European companies. They realize that while Le Pen cheered “France First”, Macron called that nationalist, he proposed European Nationalism. Germany needs open markets to retain its current account surplus. Without that, Germany fears its economic power will collapse. Macron’s proposals are rejected already behind the curtain. Hence, the French people will find he is their Obama – great expectations for change, but no leadership leads to the same old status quo.

Macron’s “Buy European Act” was his a central promise during his campaign. Macron’;s entire plan was to solve unemployment with protectionism but not exclusively for France, but for Europe. Macron’s formula was to be that only companies that have settled at least half of their production in Europe would qualify to sell goods to the government. He calls this the plan that would protect Europe in this new age of globalization.

At the end of the day, the difference between Le Pen and Macron was a sense of power. Le Pen realized the authority of the president ended at the French border. Macron, thought he really would have a say in Brussels and Berlin. Ah, what fools we mortals can be

Macron to Hand All Sovereignty to Brussels


Emmanuel Macron’s victory promises no change for Europe and it has been the blessing Brussels wanted so badly to further advance the federalization of Europe. Macron will surrender far more French sovereignty to Brussels than anyone suspects. Macron is a technocrat and the youngest President in France ever at 39. His message of surrendering the sovereignty of France was the subtle use at his rally in Paris of the European anthem, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” rather than the Marseillaise. This was indeed a powerful gesture of a surrender to Brussels that will be full and complete. It also signal there will be no change in direction or reform.

The New York Times called the defeat of Marine Le Pen, was a battle against the evil forces of “xenophobic nationalism exploited by President Donald Trump.” They also reported that this is the end of populism as expected for they classified BREXIT as “Britain’s dismal decision last year to leave the European Union, and in the face of Trump’s woeful anti-European ignorance, was critical” to Macron’s victory. It is just stunning how the New York Times cheers on the EU and socialism yet never looks at the data to see if they are correct in pronouncing that the EU has created growth rather than destroyed it.

The New York Times and their biased position will NEVER bother to just look at the numbers. GDP growth in Britain peaked in 1973 and has declined ever since joining the EU. So what’s the problem? Are the people at the New York Times blind, stupid, the party idiot, or just too corrupt to be objective?

If Macron was in the USA, they would be calling for the prosecution of his wife as a child molester. They met when he was 15 years old and she was his high school teacher at 40 years old. When his parents found out he was romantically involved with his teacher when she was still married to the father of her three children. His were so stunned, they removed their teen son from the school and sent him to finish his education in Paris. Now he is the leader of France.

Macron’s Victory May Be Disaster for Merkel


Angela Merkel was the first phone Emmanuel Macron made after the election.  My point about the election for Macron was the worst possible outcome for the Euro was not just reflected in yesterday’s outside reversal to the downside. Merkel has already made it clear that she will not relax  Eurozone spending rules to help Macron. The defeat of Le Pen has sealed the fate of Europe because there will be no reflection upon how to reform the EU to save Europe.

Only a sublime idiot would now think everything in Europe will be just great. We are looking at a major hard landing for Europe. Keep in mind that local governments even in the USA are doomed for all they can do is raise taxes further crushing their population and destroying their own economy.

Nonetheless, there is a lifetime in politics between the May victory for the establishment in France with Macron who cannot possibly help calm France and the election of Merkel in the fall. The biggest disappointment of Obama was being the first Black President, hopes were so high for a real change. When everyone saw he did the same thing as Bush, this set the stage for the Trump victory. Republic or Democrat offered nothing.

Our computer was correct in forecast the mainstream political parties in France would be defeated. That took place. Now the expectations are so high for Macron to change things, when the French people realize he is the same as what they had under Hollande, the backlash can still come before the German elections. The civil unrest in France is unbelievable. The tension there you can cut in the air with a knife.

Macron will fail and with him, the dream of Brussels.

The French Elections – What Now?


Macron won about 65% to Le Pen 35%. Even Obama came out in support of Macron which obviously confirms Macron is the supporter of the establishment – not change. The bias of the global press is clear in their labels. They label Emmanuel Macron as the “independent centrist” and Marine Le Pen as the “far-right” as applied by CNN – and we all know they are always for the establishment and against the people. Indeed, CNN seems to play the roll of Marie Antoinette who journalists reported she said “Let them eat cake” or in French “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche” upon learning that the peasants had no bread to eat, which back then was enriched with eggs and butter. Mainstream media has no regard for the people and only attempt to manipulate the people to maintain the status quo. Mainstream media do not want to rock the boat any more than the bankers. They want to keep everything as is and are distinctly part of the problem why we are in this economic mess. The mere fact Le Pen beat all the mainstream parties since World War II distinctly illustrates that all is not well in the land of Oz these people live in. Le Pen’s showing that about one-third of the population are fed-up with the status quo forewarns this is not over yet.

Still in France, that status quo is an economic storm of giant proportions that the Socialist Hollande has created destroying the French economy with every decree he introduced. France is a country that is bitterly divided and at great risk itself of yet another French Revolution. France is suffering from tremendous high unemployment, little to zero potential job growth, cursed by stagflation, and security worries that are the greatest among the European states. The unilateral act of Merkel accepting refugees supposedly from Syria that ended up being a wholesale invitation for anyone from all Islamic countries has devastated France who was never asked by Merkel in advance to accept these refugees. But Merkel’s unilateral act to save her own polls during her hardline position against Greece, demonstrated why the EU is a total failure. You have heads of states who can make independent decisions and the whole of Europe must suffer.

The French government has struggled to cope with immigration and integration crisis set in motion by Merkel, which is undermining both the French economy and French security. France has suffered terrorist attacks from the very people embraced by Merkel’s policy It is only a question of when will the next French Revolution unfold. Civil Unrest is also rising in France and this may lead to a much broader revolutionary movement. The terrorists who attacked Paris were then linked to the terrorist attack in Brussels.

History repeats because the passion of man never change. We are looking at France in the same strange position as when Louis XVI ascended to the throne. Then too the country was in the middle of a financial crisis and France was on the verge of bankruptcy. This was due in part to France’s costly involvements in the Seven Years’ War. In May 1776, finance minister Turgot was dismissed, after failing to enact reforms to correct the crisis.

On August 8th, 1788, the royal treasury was declared empty, and the Parlement of Paris, which was an assembly of nobles, refused to reform the tax system or loan the Crown any more money. To win their support for fiscal reforms, the Minister of Finance, Étienne Charles de Loménie de Brienne (1727 – 1794) , declared May 5th, 1789 for a meeting of the Estates General, which was an assembly of the nobility, clergy and commoners (called The third Estate), which had not met since 1614. Then on August 16th, 1788, the treasury suspended all payments on government debts going into default. Finally, on August 25th, Brienne resigned as Minister of Finance. He was replaced by Jacques Necker, a foreigner who was a Swiss banker. Necker was appointed Comptroller-General of Finance but could not be made an “official minister” because he was a Protestant.  Nevertheless, Necker was very popular with the common people.

On September 23rd, 1788, Necker reassured French bankers and businessmen should agree to loan the state 75 million livers, on the condition that the Estates General will have full powers to reform the system. The political turmoil was unleashed. On December 27th, 1788, over the opposition of the nobles, Necker announced that the representation of the Third Estate will be doubled, and that nobles and clergymen will be eligible to sit with the Third Estate.

The financial crisis was astute. Necker realized that the country’s tax system subjected the lower classes to a heavy burden and was extremely regressive, simultaneously, numerous exemptions existed for the nobility and clergy. Necker warned that the country could not be taxed higher. He further argued that the tax exemptions for the nobility and clergy had to be reduced. He also proposed that the government borrow more money to solve the country’s fiscal shortages.

Necker actually published his report to support this claim showing the accounting of the crisis. He actually underestimated the deficit by more than 36 million livres or 6 million silver Ecu. Necker proposed restricting the power of the Parlement to protect the nobility. Necker also argued to be made a minister giving him the power to push through reforms. The King refused and Necker was dismissed.

We have reached that crossroads of economics/civil unrest that runs throughout history. We are on the verge of a serious Sovereign Debt Crisis once again. Here too we have governments seeking to track every penny and to eliminate cash to begin to just seize money from people’s accounts while cancelling passports to prevent anyone from leaving a country if the government believe you have money they can tax.

Mix in the same factors, regardless of the century, and you end up with the same result. Only a fool ignores the past and says this is the 21st century. That is how history repeats because those people never look back and ask – if we do this, what will happen? There have been 21+ civil uprisings in France since 1229. That is in line with the 8.6 year frequency  (8.615 * 4.307) = 37.104. This does not bode well for the future as suspected.

With Obama’s endorsement, Macron appears to be in line with out model that forewarns of a real economic crisis in Euro as we head into 2018.

Macron’s Victory at 65% is Part I – Part II Parliament Elections in June


Le Pen conceded but will lead her Party in the Parliamentary elections next month. Macron paid a token gesture saying he understand the anger of 35% of the people who voted for Le Pen. Nevertheless, while the mainstream parties collapsed in France warning that the entire population really voted against the establishment, the sad part comes when the French people wake up and realize that Macron will not save France and if anything Brussels will now move aggressively to lock-down Europe to prevent another BREXIT. Brussels, based upon reliable sources, will seek to secure their own survival and move to federalize Europe to protect their own jobs.

To those who has asked if I would consult with Macron’s government, let me put it mildly. First, he will never call me and two, it would be a huge waste of time. This simply has to play out now. Brussels will NEVER reform or asking if there is something they are doing wrong. Europe will have to crash and burn politically before change will ever come.

The computer was correct back in 2015 when it projected Le Pen would beat both the Socialist and Conservatives. Now the second part of that forecast was just set in motion. There will be no reform for Europe so we are looking at a very hard landing.