The New G8


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has created a new alliance that many are calling the “new G8.” Russia was expelled from the original Group of Eight in March 2014, following the annexation of Crimea. Russia stated that it did not care about the snub. “All the economic and financial questions are decided in G20, and G8 has the purpose of existence as the forum of dialogue between the leading Western countries and Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated. There is no dialogue between the major Western superpowers in Russia at this point in time. Former President Obama’s ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, went as far as saying that the West must insure Russia has “no real allies.”

Due to backfiring sanctions, Russia certainly does have allies and has created a new G8 for good measure. Vyacheslav Volodin, head of the State Duma, stated the following:

“The economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada continue to collapse under the pressure of sanctions against Russia.

The breakup of existing economic relations by Washington and its allies has led to the formation of new points of growth in the world.

The group of eight countries that do not take part in the sanctions wars – China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Turkey – is 24.4 per cent ahead of the old group in terms of GDP per capita.”

Volodin said that the seven named countries are interested in developing “mutually beneficial relations with Russia,” and have already seen economic progress despite ongoing sanctions. Putin has also said that he would like to collaborate with emerging economies such as certain African nations that are “still sleeping, but about to wake up.”

The plan to divorce Russia from the world economy has backfired. Russia is increasing its international partnerships and trade as a direct result of the policies aimed at isolating it from the world.

IEA Warns of Possible Gasoline Shortages and Need for Rationing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 1, 2022 | Sundance

Does anyone remember during the Jimmy Carter era when odd/even days on license plates to get gas?  Well, if the International Energy Agency is accurate, and the issue extends into the U.S. as predicted by many industry insiders, we could very well see gasoline rationing once again.

Beyond all the obfuscation, denial and continual pretending, the reason for the gasoline shortages is related to this forcible shift in energy policy that is underway in Europe and the United States.  It’s not a shortage of oil, it’s the new era where the Green New Deal is the policy priority.  The people within the Biden administration do not care about the consequences, Biden is pushed in front of the camera as a useful idiot to take the blame.

Business Insider – The US could see fuel shortages this summer once people start taking their vacations — and Europe could take a particular hit from the lack of supply, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

“When the main holiday season starts in Europe and the US, fuel demand will rise,” Fatih Birol told Der Spiegel. “Then we could see shortages — for example, in diesel, petrol or kerosene, particularly in Europe.”

Birol also told the German newspaper that the energy crisis now underway will be more severe and longer-lasting than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, given it’s applying pressure on three fronts.

“Back then it was just about oil,” he said in the interview published Tuesday. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously.”

Oil prices spiked in 1973 and 1979 as the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution interrupted Middle Eastern crude exports. Geopolitical events have hit the market again in 2022, as western nations impose sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

Joe Biden has no clue what the people running the administration agencies are doing.  Even if he were to ask them, they would simply type something into his teleprompter that he would believe and repeat.  Biden doesn’t care, the entire family is in it for the grift.

Taliban order Afghan women to cover faces again


Posted originally on Rumble by Reuters  on May 7, 2022 741 Views

Spokesperson For World’s Largest Military Overwhelmed with Emotion for Ukraine During Press Briefing


Posted originally onthe conservative treehouse on April 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Comrades, the deep, long and sullen violins were playing tearfully today as the World War Reddit theatrical performance came heavily to the Pentagon.  Leading narrative engineer John Kirby was captivating in his role as profoundly sullen squire overwhelmed with the magnitude of the moment and the emotion of the struggle in Ukraine.

The Biden production company is attempting to raise another $33 billion for enhanced theater operations in the besieged European country.  Pentagon chournalists are collecting canned goods, including soundbites, to support the war effort; and the Defense Dept is broadcasting the theme to Chariots of Fire across NATO signals.

Meanwhile, emotions throughout Europe are running high as valiant Prince Volodymyr of Donbas assembles his polished armor and directs his trusted steed into the wind.

Yes, today the clouds loomed heavy as Director Kirby narrated his audience while fighting bravely to keep the spirit of Edward R Murrow alive.  The wide-eyed maidens held their collective breath waiting in the mournful stillness of the moment… You could hear a pin drop. WATCH:

Congressional Representative Stressed About Twitter Causing Hate Crimes


Posted originally on the conservative Tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance

An emotionally unstable moonbat from the House of Representatives is “collectively stressed” because apparently Twitter ownership is directly connected to hate crimes on the streets.  (Source)

Being worried about Twitter creating hate crimes, is one fear higher than being chased by a turtle.

The Great Twitter Riots…..

…We Will Rebuild!

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Remarks About New DHS Disinformation Bureau, The Ministry of Truth


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance 

Comrades, earlier today dissident Governor Ron DeSantis spoke out against the latest effort of the Biden administration to create an official disinformation bureau with a dedicated mission to assist Big Tech and social media platforms in their control of speech. {Direct Rumble Link}

There is no dis-, mis-, or mal-information There is only information the Government wants you to hear, and the information the U.S. Govt disapproves of.  The DHS disinformation board is dedicated to dealing with the latter.

Governor DeSantis made his remarks during an announcement to expand Florida infrastructure.  WATCH:

BEA Release, Wages Rise 4.5 Percent but Inflation Rises 6.6 Percent, Workers Fall Further Behind


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 29, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released March and first quarter (Q1) data today on personal income and outlays [DATA HERE].  The results show an increase in Q1 wages of 4.5%. However, inflation is running 6.6% on the items workers need to purchase.  The net result on Main Street is unsustainable inside the economy.  The U.S. stock market is responding negatively to this release.

It’s easy to get caught up in the esoteric weeds, so my effort here is to show just what is happening by putting an overlay of checkbook economics into the BEA release.  If we take out the noise it is very easy to see the problem.  I have modified TABLE-4 to put the results into simple understandable terms.

(Table 4, Source)

By looking at the far-right column (Q1 2022) you can see the problem.  Wage growth at $268.00, minus taxes paid $51.40, leaves disposable income or take-home pay at $216.60.  However, our expenses for living (shelter, food, utilities, energy, etc) cost $398.50, leaving a deficit for our income of $181.90.  We either dip into our savings to cover our expenses, or we go into debt.  This is not sustainable.

If you look at Q1 last year, you can clearly see where all of the inflation is coming from.  That massive increase in income came from the federal COVID bailout and stimulus funds.  $4 trillion directly pumped into the economy at a time when Biden justified massive bailout spending by saying they needed to offset the economic cost of prior COVID intervention (businesses and workers shut down).  That is the primary source of current inflation.

If you take out that Q1 spend from the economic activity, the U.S. economy was already contracting.  This is why CTH has continued to say our economy was in a state of contraction since June/July of 2021.  Everything after that massive dump of money was false economic activity; the GDP growth was artificial.  That bailout spending dried up in the fall and winter of last year and now we see the 2022 GDP going negative.

In essence the GDP contraction that we should have seen in 2021 was delayed by the massive infusion of cash in April of 2021.  However, that massive infusion of cash created inflation.  That inflation has been a crisis that grew from the summer of 2021 to its apex in the last month.

♦ So, what does all of this mean?

Let’s cut to the chase.  As CTH accurately predicted previously, inflation comes in waves because supplier purchases are done in contract terms of 30, 60 and 90 days.  As each contract for purchased goods expires, the new prices for future goods are changed.  We see waves of inflation in roughly three-month increments, and while prices were rising faster on a daily and weekly basis, those wave cycles started in October of 2021.

Wave 1, came Oct/Nov/Dec 2021.

Wave 2, came Jan/Feb/March 2022.

We talked about each wave as it was coming and as it arrived.  Ultimately, Wave-2 was bigger than Wave-1 as the cumulative increases the total supply chain and manufacturing flowed into the products we purchase.

♦ Where are we now?   There are two sub-sets:

• Inflation on durable goods is now at the apex.  The durable goods price flatlines right now as all production costs are embedded in the cost of the product.  The prices of finished goods are now set; inflation has caught up to production; the prices of on-shelf and inbound deliveries are higher, but stable.

Now, we enter the phase where consumer demand becomes the dominant factor in price.  Simultaneously, demand is contracting because the higher rate of inflation in highly consumable goods (energy, utility costs, housing, gasoline, food) is now a spending priority for consumers and eating a larger portion of wages.   As a result, the price of durable goods is now dependent on the ability of the consumer to pay for them.

Sellers of durable goods are going to be chasing a smaller customer base who can afford them.  Durable goods prices will remain static, and now durable goods prices will likely become part of the competitive equation.  The businesses within the durable goods sector are going to have to find customers in order to stay in business.  Incentives will show up this spring/summer as businesses need customers.   If you are a wise, careful and smart shopper for durable goods you will find deals

• Inflation on consumable goods is not yet at the apex.  It’s likely close to production parity, but prices pressures are still volatile in the upward direction. The price of gasoline and transportation overall will be a big factor in current prices of highly consumable goods.  We should see oil, gas and energy prices stabilize first.

Rents will likely increase for another three to six months, then stabilize (and, in my opinion start to fall late summer).

Housing overall is far more challenging as mortgage rates are climbing.  Refinancing as a method to bridge the income gap between wages and expenses is a big problem now in this phase.  There is going to be a period of massive fluctuations and instability in the housing market depending on region and employment stability as the recession phase of the total economy is going to bite hard.

For most regions with mixed blend underlying economies (products and services) macro housing prices have peaked in the last 15 days.  For ordinary housing purchases, not institutional investments, we should start to see price decreases again as the customer base for high prices shrinks.  Obviously, this is driven by inventory and regional specifics; however, I am talking in the aggregate within the macro housing situation.

Food prices still have some upward pressures through Memorial day.  Then a period of stability will settle, before the third wave of food inflation hits later in the summer/fall of this year; that’s when the increases in farming costs will reach the fork.

Late summer and fall food prices will likely be 15 to 20 percent higher than current prices at the supermarket.  The fresh foods will be on the upper side of the future price wave, and the processed foods on the lower end; however, both will increase.

The last factors in the food price are far more challenging to predict….  Supply?   Any problems within the food production cycle that impacts supply will drive prices, beyond what we already expect.  If there are major shortages, the prices will go even higher.

This food environment is unfortunately the best time for Big Agriculture, the Wall Street multinationals, to make the most profit.  The Big Ag multinationals will exploit every possible angle within inventory, supply and harvest controls to maximize their profit equation.  There are a great deal of unknown global variables right now that could impact U.S. food prices later this year.  The only certainty is that prices will further increase.

Joe Biden sucks.

.

Footnote, pray for good weather and stability this summer. If it is an active hurricane season, gasoline, oil exploration and refinery issues will make matters worse. The southern coastal areas, especially Florida, Louisiana and Texas need a non-dramatic summer.

Blackrock CEO Advances Proposal for Global Digital Payment System and Digital Currency


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 24, 2022

When CTH outlined the ‘Destination Handbasket’ framework {Go Deep}, we had no idea Blackrock CEO Larry Fink was essentially going to confirm the premise of our prediction.  Keep in mind, any digital currency can only work if there is a digital identity attributed to it – what some have called a digital passport which then creates a crypto wallet.

I have based the framework, of what appears to be over the horizon, on a set of inevitable geopolitical outcomes if the current path is continued.  The letter by Blackrock CEO Larry Fink [LINK] seems to affirm the strongest likelihood of a western-inspired digital currency eventually replacing the dollar.

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) – BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N) chief executive, Larry Fink, said on Thursday that the Russia-Ukraine war could end up accelerating digital currencies as a tool to settle international transactions, as the conflict upends the globalization drive of the last three decades.

In a letter to the shareholders of the world’s largest asset manager, Fink said the war will push countries to reassess currency dependencies, and that BlackRock was studying digital currencies and stablecoins due to increased client interest.

“A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption”, he said.

[…] In the letter on Thursday, the chairman and CEO of the $10 trillion asset manager said the Russia-Ukraine crisis had put an end to the globalization forces at work over the past 30 years.

[…] “While companies’ and consumers’ balance sheets are strong today, giving them more of a cushion to weather these difficulties, a large-scale reorientation of supply chains will inherently be inflationary,” said Fink.

He said central banks were dealing with a dilemma they had not faced in decades, having to choose between living with high inflation or slowing economic activity to contain price pressures.  (read more)

You see that problem, that “dilemma” Fink mentions in the last paragraph above.  That is what we have been talking about on these pages for more than two years.   It is a dilemma western government created when they all joined together and followed the exact same financial path during the pandemic.

When western governments used the justification of the global pandemic to shut down their economies, enforce lockdowns and all of the subsequent rules, restrictions and economic pains as a direct result of those decisions, they put us on a crisis path that was always going to bring us to this “dilemma.”  Quite frankly, I do not see that unity of action as accidental, nor do I see it as organic.

All of the western leaders followed the same monetary and financial policy that was being advanced by the World Economic Forum.  They all spent like crazy, and provided tens-of-trillions in bailouts, subsidies and cash payments to cover the economic losses created by their COVID lockdowns.  They all did exactly the same thing, and that collective action is why we have ‘global inflation.’

Perversely, while inflation crushes the working class, global inflation works to their benefit by lowering the cost of the debt the politicians created, which the central bands and federal reserve facilitated.  We the citizens are suffering under inflation, but the governments that created the inflation actually benefit from it.

I will say with great deliberateness, these western governments want inflation.  Sure, it provides a political challenge for those who need to get reelected by voters, but in the bigger of big pictures, they need inflation.  Think about it in very simple terms.  If they did not want inflation, those same central banks and federal reserve policy makers would have raised interest rates six to eight months ago.

None of what is happening in supply chains and inflation is a surprise to them; they might pretend not to know, but these are not stupid people.  This is by design.  Media covers for them because, well, I’ll accept the PR firms for the regimes are idiots. However, the people who constructed these policies to take advantage of COVID-19 are not dummies.  They knew what all that intervention, manipulation and govt spending would lead to.

Where we are going now is a self-fulfilling prophecy, a destination that is a result of specific action the guided policymakers have taken.

Yes, in hindsight, all of it does seem planned to a long-term eventual conclusion.  However, I’m not going to make that specific affirmation just yet; there are still strong elements of ‘not letting a crisis go to waste’ as the leading driver.  Did these governing bodies create the underlying crisis?  We can debate that, but the point is essentially moot.  We are where we are.

The vaccination protocol created the Vax-Passport.  That has opened the door to the digital identity, “digital id.”   Any government created digital currency is going to need a digital id from the outset.

There are a lot of people asking where this is going, and what can be done to stop it.  I’m pretty certain we have accurately identified “Where This is Going,” and I’m a lot more confident now about that aspect than I was even just 24 hours ago.  However, knowing that, now we need to look closer at what they would do to stop us from disrupting it.

Canadian Liberal Triggered By The Flag Hatred Inspired By Trudeau


Posted originally bt HodgeTwins  on Rumble on February 19, 2022 27,899 Views

Canadian Parliament Protest Schwab, Trudeau, & WEF


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Feb 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Canadian Parliament shuts down probably the most important question concerning treason against the Canadian people. Stating that Schwab has bragged about infiltrating the Canadian government and naming those involved with Schwab after he has openly bragged about this accomplishment, Parliament shut down the question to make sure nobody would answer.

Then the notorious corrupt Liberal MP had the open audacity to claim this is misinformation when it is openly published even at Harvard University, one must wonder what are his connections and how much has he received in gifts, political donations, and favored status from bankers to block any such questions.

These people have betrayed their own country. Schwab’s agenda to eliminate even paper currency was to take place by 2024. But COVID is backfiring which has resulted in bringing this forward to 2023 just after the US elections.

This is the image of Canada merging from the outside. Even Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò has come out in support of the Truckers.

Schwab was not kidding and it was not the misinformation. The Emergency Act will become permanent in Canada. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland intends to make permanent the invasive financial surveillance system introduced as part of the “Emergencies Act” to absolutely destroy and crush the civil liberties protests and to be able to defund all opposition. Freeland is also a Young Global Leader graduate who is also loyal to Schwab. They have been indoctrinated with an authoritarian view of powers and Canada is to have its sovereignty surrendered to Schwab’s global vision. She declared:

“As of today, all crowdfunding platforms, and the payment service providers they use, must register with FINTRAC and must report large and suspicious transactions to FINTRAC (Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada).” Freeland added: “This will help mitigate the risk that these platforms receive illicit funds; increase the quality and quantity of intelligence received by FINTRAC; and make more information available to support investigations by law enforcement into these illegal blockades.”

“This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades. We are today serving notice, if your truck is being used in these illegal blockades your corporate accounts will be frozen.”

Trudeau has called in the police and they are to attack the protesters with brutal force. Leaks of communications have shown that the RCMP currently in Ottawa is to assist in the crackdown on peaceful protesters allegedly brag about using brutal force in a leaked group chat according to Rebel News. He has also called in police from Quebec who will defend him against the English-speaking truckers. This was Schwab’s and Canada’s Tiananmen Square. Canada may now have only until the 1st week of April.

This is a battle to the death for Schwab’s Great Reset. Canada MUST be driven into submission and this is critical to the ideas of Schwab and his vision for the world.

Schwab has promised these politicians dictatorial powers with the end of all democratic processes. Schwab is pushing the design of Europe upon the rest of the world whereby the head of state NEVER stands for election, neither does the European Commission which makes all laws and to fool the people that they are still relevant, they get to vote for an MP who has no power to make or overrule laws crafted by the Commission. This is the system they intend to impose of the world and politicians will NEVER again need to worry about being voted out of office. This is why governments are now protecting Schwab. He has promised them a world void of any power of the people to vote them out of power. What Schwab has not considered is that he is boxing in people to the point the only solution will be a revolution.