Earlier today President Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin. At the conclusion of their discussions Mr. Bolton held a brief press conference to answer questions.

We anticipate that tomorrow a joint U.S-Russia announcement for a summit to be held later this year.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office where he was joined by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of Portugal, President Trump delivered remarks on the announcement of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement.

New Video Added:

Earlier today Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy had a meeting with President Donald Trump to notify the president of his intended retirement announcement.   A few hours later Justice Kennedy made the announcement public.

In a letter to President Trump, Kennedy wrote “it is the highest of honors to serve on this Court,” and he expressed his “profound gratitude for having had the privilege to seek in each case how best to know, interpret, and defend the Constitution and the laws that must always conform to its mandates and promises.”

The decision by the 81-year-old justice is all but certain to kick off a pitched confirmation battle because of the likelihood for his successor to move the court’s future decisions on a number of significant issues.

It was rumored last year that Justice Anthony Kennedy wanted to retire; however,  Kennedy holds institutional and traditional reverence for the court far beyond politics. It was likely he deferred the decision until after Justice Gorsuch, a former protege’, gained a year of comfort on the court. Justice Kennedy has long showcased his disdain for politics and how it corrupts the court; and his outlook is so steeped in judicial tradition it was anticipated would defer/delay his own personal interests if he sensed a need to guard or protect the integrity of traditions within the court from the toxic infiltration of politics.

Amy Howe of SCOTUS BLOG:

When he nominated Kennedy, Reagan billed Kennedy as a “true conservative,” but he was generally regarded as a consensus pick after the failed Bork and Ginsburg nominations; Reagan himself noted that Kennedy “seems to be popular with many senators of varying political persuasions.” The Kennedy nomination drew disapproval from some conservatives, however. Senator Charles Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, characterized Reagan’s choice as a “basic compromise of principle,” while political activist Richard Viguerie described the nomination as a “total surrender to the left.”

Over the next three decades, conservatives were indeed often disappointed with Kennedy and his votes on a variety of issues, particularly social ones. One such topic was abortion. Anti-abortion voters had played a key role in Reagan’s election, and Kennedy initially provided both the president who appointed him and those voters with reason to be optimistic. Just a little over a year after his confirmation, Kennedy joined the majority in upholding a Missouri law that (among other things) defined life as beginning at conception and required doctors to conduct fetal viability tests before performing abortions on women who were 20 or more weeks pregnant. Along with Justice Byron White, Kennedy also joined a separate opinion, written by then-Chief Justice William Rehnquist, that would have effectively dismantled the test outlined in Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court’s landmark 1973 decision establishing a woman’s basic right to an abortion. And in 2007, Kennedy wrote the majority opinion when a closely divided court upheld a federal law that criminalized a procedure known as a “partial-birth” abortion.  (continue reading)

Earlier today President Trump delivered remarks to student and university leadership during an event at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building:

.

[Transcript] 12:18 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you very much. It’s a young, very good-looking group of people. I hate it. I hate that. Please sit down. Great looking group. I’d like to be your age. (Laughter.) No, I’d love it. How much? Charlie, you’re doing a great job. Great job. Thank you very much.

I’m thrilled to be here with such a very talented group of young Americans. Incredible achievement already in your lives.

We’re joined today by student leaders from colleges and universities from all across our nation. You are the people on the frontlines of our move to forge a future of true American greatness. We’ve done an awfully good job in the last short period of time. Had a lot of success. A lot of success over the last couple of days in the Supreme Court. A lot of great things are happening.

A very special thanks, also, to my friend Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA for being with us and helping us with this event. Thank you very much, Charlie. Spectacular person.

I also want to welcome all of the young people that I have such respect for. Union representatives, where are you? Raise your hand, please. The toughest negotiators you’ll ever find. (Laughter.) That’s good. That’s good. I’m glad that you’re here. And you’re participating in vocational and apprenticeship programs, and there’s nothing more important. It’s really the beginning of something very big for all of you. It’s great to have all of you with us.

And thanks, also, to the interns here from NASA. We have — how about raising your hands? Let me see NASA. Yeah. That’s a good future because of President Trump. We opened that up again. (Laughter.) We opened it up. (Applause.) NASA was heading in, I was going to say the wrong direction. It was heading in no direction. There was nothing happening, and now it’s happening.

And you heard me the other day when I was talking about it: Let the rich guys do it. We have all these rich guys; they love rockets. They’re all sending up — Bezos and Elon Musk, and all of them. They’re sending — they love the rocket business. Let them — just rent it to them for a lot of money and let them play. You know, they need our land. It’s good to be in the real estate business. They need our land. Let them send up their rockets. Let them be the first to Mars, and we’ll take all the credit. Okay? (Laughter.)

But NASA is very important. And we also, on a serious note, are very, very much involved with that, and also from a military standpoint. Space — you know all about Space Force. But space is a very big factor in the Trump administration. Very important for defense. Space Force.

Each of you represent the future of this nation. You arent afraid to speak the truth and the truth as you know it, and to stand up for what you know is right, even if it means being politically incorrect on occasion. Okay? I’ve been politically incorrect a lot, and here we are. So it’s okay, I guess. (Laughter.)

We believe in free speech on college campuses, not censorship. Institutions of higher learning should be forums for open discussion either way. You can be liberal, you can be conservative, you can be Democrats, Republicans. Hear it all out — and you make your choice. You may not agree with me on things. Some people dont; some people do. But you have to have free speech.

You bring fresh eyes to old problems, because as young people, youre not burdened by the failed thinking of the past. And you really have to say “some” of the failed thinking. Some of it has been very good.

You understand that for a nation to be successful, it must have a strong military and it must have strong borders and security inside our country. And we’ve just had $700 billion approved — the largest ever for our military. And next year we already have it approved $716 billion. And we will shortly be stronger than we ever were before. So important. Hopefully we never have to use it. We dont want to use our military for that. We want to keep training, training, training, but never have to use it. But if we have to use it, nobody is going to come close.

You have to believe in protecting the entire Constitution, as written, including the right to free speech and the right to keep and bear arms. Second Amendment.

You know that a nation must be proud of its history to be confident. And a nation has to be confident in its future. And you know that we must honor and respect our great American flag — which we do. Everybody in this room does.

We’re citizens of the freest, strongest, and greatest nation on Earth. Also, I can say, greatest nation ever to exist, and we’re getting stronger every day.

I have to say, you’re in the prime of your life. Actually, most of you arent even in the prime of your life. You’ll be in the prime of your life in about 15 years. I’m going to make it as long as possible. But you’re doing a fantastic job, and your life has been a truly exciting one. I know a lot of the stories in this room.

Our economy is booming, confidence is soaring, and there’s never been a better time to be young and to be American. Never been a better time. The opportunity now is incredible.

Unemployment for people under the age of 24 is the lowest in almost 50 years. Think of that. The lowest — the best in almost 50 years. And, shortly, we’re going to have the all-time best that we’ve ever had.

African American youth unemployment is the lowest level in the history of our country. And African American unemployment is the lowest level in history. Hispanic unemployment is the lowest level in history. Women unemployment is the lowest level in 21 years and will soon be, I think, in history. I think we need another couple of months, frankly. But I think soon we’ll be able to say, for women, it will be — unemployment — the lowest in history.

Thanks to our massive tax cuts, young men and women entering the workforce are keeping more and more of the money they earn. So are older people, frankly. And it’s really helping you get a stronger start in life. A lot of advantages.

We’ve eliminated horrible policies that burdened young Americans. You were burdened by things that were really, in some cases, insurmountable, including the individual mandate in Obamacare. A disaster. That’s where you pay a lot of money for the privilege of not buying health insurance. Right? One of the worst things. It’s gone.

People were devastated by that. They were paying tremendous amounts of money so that they didn’t have to pay for healthcare. And the healthcare was no good. And we have new healthcare programs. One was announced last week. It’s phenomenal — the association program. You associate. Associations of people. Businesses get together and they buy it across state lines. They’re going to get tremendous healthcare. People have no idea how important that’s going to be. And we have another one coming out from Secretary Azar in two weeks. It’s going to be incredible.

We’re investing in job training and vocational schools so citizens of all ages can take advantage of new jobs and the new prosperity that our country is going through. We’ve never had prosperity like this.

Weve increased — let’s use the word “worth” — the worth, in an economic sense, of our country by over $7 trillion since my election — $7 trillion. I got nothing out of it, except I’m very proud of it. It’s a great number.

GDP numbers are way up. And we have another one coming out, I guess, over the next four of five weeks. It’ll be interesting for this quarter. But we hit 3.2. If I would have said 3.2 percent; if I would have said that black unemployment is the lower in history or Hispanic unemployment, lowest in history; if I would have said any of the things that I just told you during the campaign, the press would have said, “What is he talking about?”

And yet, honestly, what we’re doing is far greater than what I would say on the campaign trail. I could have won by even more if I would have used these numbers. (Laughter.)

But we’re fixing the broken trade deals, of which they’re so horrible. So — I can’t watch them. It would be so easy for me not to do anything, like every other President for many years. Just don’t do — we’re doing great. It’s — they’re so one-sided and such an embarrassment, and they’re getting fixed very easily, because we’re the piggy bank that everybody wants to rob — both our friends and our enemies.

And, frankly, our friends, in many ways, certainly in terms of trade, have been more devastating than our enemies. The deals are just horrendous. We had nobody watching; we had nobody looking. And we’re talking about trillions of dollars, not billions. We’re talking about trillions of dollars.

So we want to make fair deals, but we want those deals to be reciprocal. The key word is “reciprocal.” We have countries that are friends. They have tremendous trade surpluses, and they have barriers that our farmers can’t deal in that country. And yet, they’ll send us millions of cars and make a fortune.

European Union — we love the European Union. They make $151 billion a year — $151 billion. There’s no company like that. This is just the European Union. And then we have more. And we’re working with China now, and I think hopefully that’ll get straightened out. But that was anywhere from $375 [billion] — depending on the way you want to count it — $375 [billion] to $500 billion-a-year loss. It’s time for us to get smart.

So as you continue to develop your talents and to make your mark upon the world, remember that nothing worth doing is ever easy. You’ll have bad moments. I used to give speeches on success. I don’t give them anymore. It was — that’s what they like the best. You got to love what you’re doing. And if you don’t, just do something else. Find what you’re — especially at you age, you have to love what you’re doing.

You’ll never be successful — unless you get lucky, which could happen — but if you don’t love what you’re doing, find something else. If you don’t love NASA, if you don’t love space, do something else. And for the people that do, get over there and be with the space cadets, right? (Laughter.) But you got to love it. If you don’t love it, you’re just not going to — it’s not going to happen.

You have to follow your passion. You have to do what you want to do. You have to listen to people. You have to go around and say, “What’s a good industry?” Because I know people that love things, but they’re behind the eight ball because they’re going into something that’s not a good industry. So if you can find something else — because there are industries that are so great, and there are places that are heading in the wrong direction — and things.

You want to try and be in that upslope if you can find your passion there. If you can’t, still, stick with — you have to stick with.

And speak your mind. Ask questions. You’re at such an important part of your life because you are making the decision for the rest of your life right now. This is your big time. You’re most wanted; everybody wants you. You’re young. You’re smart. You’re brilliant. And this is the time that’s going to really guide the rest of your lives.

So it’s a very important time for you. So just love it. Love it. But try and go into something where you can have a wonderful life, where it just is worthwhile. Because there are some things that it’s tough.

Keep standing up always for your values. Keep working with your classmates and your friends. Keep loving your country. And one of the most important things: Never, ever quit. Never quit. You know, I went to a great school. I went to the Wharton School of Finance. And in that school, I met a lot of people. A lot of people heading industry today and over the past. Very smart people. But I’ve watched some of the people grow. I’ve watched some of the most incredible, brilliant students. And they didn’t make it like other people made it because they didn’t have that drive. They didn’t have that never-give-up ability. I don’t know if it’s an ability or if you have it. Just, you can’t quit.

And I’ve seen people quitting. And if they would have held out longer, they would have been successful. I’ve seen it so much. I’ve seen some of the most brilliant people in the world that never made it because they were quitters. They were just quitters. They would quit. They would — they just couldn’t take it. They couldn’t, whatever.

One of the things about loving what you do is that it’s not work, and therefore you don’t quit automatically. It’s a lot easier not to quit. But you can never give up.

Now, you have to also have flexibility though. You can’t necessarily say, “I’m never giving up. I’m going to” And you got to be able to weave and bob. You don’t have to go through a concrete wall when you can go over it or around it or under it or something. You have to have flexibility. You have to always be able to change course a little bit, maybe always with that same goal. But don’t quit. It’s be — there aren’t a lot of people that have quit. If you were quitters, you probably wouldn’t be here today with me. Okay? You probably wouldn’t be here. But never, ever quit.

So I want to thank you all for coming. This is an honor to be with you. You’re the future. You’re the future of our country. You’re the future of the world, in many respects. We have a great country. We have tremendous potential. We have potential, frankly, that has been untapped. And we’re finding out what that potential is and finding it out in ways and means and numbers that nobody ever thought existed.

I want to just say God bless you and your families. And God bless our great country. And have a tremendous life. You are off to the best start. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. (Applause.) Thank you. Thank you, Charlie. Thank you all. Go get ’em!

END 12:34 P.M. EDT

Quick, with MAGA-shocking news reverberating there’s a mid-west rush on winnamins.

Remember that massive MAGA Trump rally last week in Duluth Minnesota? That would be the 9,000 strong rally where twice as many were turned away?

Well, the data team at MAGA HQ have crunched the numbers and Brad Parscale shares the results: “The crowd at the Minnesota rally was 60% Democrat and Independent.”

(Link)

There is an article from Bloomberg which finally concedes the obvious economic and trade dynamic within a U.S. -vs- China confrontation.  The media paradigm shift is based on new statements from Chinese Ministers admitting they cannot win a trade confrontation with U.S. President Trump.

The summary reason is simple, we have discussed it frequently:

China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.

The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production.  We are self-sustaining, China is not.

Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.

Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves.  The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food.  The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods.  This is the unavoidable trade reality.  As a consequence President Trump has all the factual leverage.

In stunning, and carefully worded economic writings, Chinese academics and economic ministers are now talking about the inherent weakness of the Red Dragon policies:

(Bloomberg) Xi Jinping vowed to match Donald Trump blow for blow in any trade war. Now as one gets closer, some in Beijing are starting to openly wonder whether China is ready for the fight — an unusually direct challenge to the leadership of the world’s second-largest economy.

The essays have raised concerns that the ruling Communist Party underestimated the depth of anti-China sentiment in Washington and risked a premature showdown with the world’s sole superpower. Such views push the bounds of acceptable public debate in a nation where dissent can lead to censure or even jail time, and are particularly bold given Xi has amassed unrivaled control while leading China to a more assertive role on the world stage.

[…] “It seems like Chinese officials were mentally unprepared for the approaching trade friction or trade war,” Gao Shanwen, chief economist for Beijing-based Essence Securities Co., whose biggest shareholders include large state-owned enterprises, wrote in one widely circulated commentary.

[…]  The essays have been noticed by key officials. Gao’s piece was circulated last week among bureaucrats at the Commerce Ministry, which has been on the front lines of the trade dispute, said one agency official, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private.

Other officials expressed skepticism about the senior leadership’s strategy in discussions with Bloomberg News last week. One Finance Ministry official said the country had made a “major misjudgment” of the U.S.’s commitment to a long-term confrontation with China.

[…]  “People are going to look back at this year as the pivot point when Xi Jinping overreached and sparked an international backlash against the party and China’s development model on multiple fronts,” said Jude Blanchette, China practice lead at Crumpton Group in Arlington, Virginia, and a former Conference Board researcher in Beijing. “There can’t be a domestic backlash because most of what they spend their time doing is thinking about how to stop that.”  (read full article)

Plant your trees in another man’s orchard, and don’t be surprised if you end up paying for your own apples!

Again, the key dynamic: The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods.  This is the unavoidable trade reality.

Now, frame that in a similar way for NAFTA.

The Canadian and Mexican economy (due to NAFTA) cannot survive without importing cheap durable goods from China to use in their assembly-based economies, and then trans-ship into the U.S market.   However, the U.S. economy can survive, it can actually expand BIGLY, without accepting trans-shipped assembled goods from Mexico and Canada

Put simply, without NAFTA, the assembly processes just moves INTO the U.S because the market *is* the United States.  We are the $20 trillion customer. We hold the leverage.

Example:

NOTE: “Donnelly said in his opening remarks that there was already a rise in product being diverted to Canada in recent years and signs of even more since the U.S. tariffs began this year.”..

This is evidence of multinationals exploiting the NAFTA loophole to avoid U.S. tariffs. This fatal flaw is at the very heart of the issue within the U.S. trade policy inside NAFTA.  As long as Mexico and Canada remain gateways for foreign good assembly and shipment into the U.S. there will never be a way for the U.S. to demand fair and reciprocal trade.

Canada knows their decades-long designed economic position as shipment/assembly trade-brokers is the central issue is the heart of the confrontation with USTR Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Ross and President Trump.  As multinational corporations seek to avoid Trump tariffs they only exacerbate the issue.

If Canada and Mexico don’t try to stop their duplicitous NAFTA benefit scheme, they will end up with even bigger trade surpluses and become even bigger targets for President Trump.  In essence, the reason for Canada and Mexico being subject to even more encompassing Trump tariffs’ grows.

If Canada and Mexico do nothing to stop this influx; Trump will levy more than just steel and aluminum tariffs; he’ll likely tax their auto-sector.

As a consequence Canada moves do back-down Red Dragon:

The Canadian government is preparing new measures to prevent a potential flood of steel imports from global producers seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs, according to people familiar with the plans. The Canadian dollar weakened and shares in Stelco Holdings Inc. soared.

The measures are said to be a combination of quotas and tariffs aimed at certain countries including China, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. The moves follow similar “safeguard” measures being considered by the European Union aimed at warding off steel that might otherwise have been sent to the U.S. It comes alongside Canadian counter-tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum and other products set to kick in on July 1.  (read more)

The bottom line is U.S. market access is what all production countries need for their goods and the sustainability of their economies.  The same dependency dynamic applies to German autos and Angela Merkel.

Trump wants three key issues resolved with Germany and he’s holding all the leverage to achieve it.   1) He wants Germany to pay for more of NATO defense and quit shirking their own responsibilities.  2) He wants the EU protective trade restrictions removed; and 3) He wants full EU support for sanctions against Iran.

The way for Trump to achieve these three objectives against the EU is through the threats on the auto-sector (20% tariff); which mostly impact Germany.   Chancellor Angela Merkel is the EU:

EU Parliament

.

.

Immediately before lunch with members from congress, President Trump delivers remarks in response to the Supreme Court removing a challenge to the administration travel restrictions and vetting process. In a 5-4 decision the Supreme Court upheld the president’s authority to restrict travel from countries who are not compliant with U.S. vetting requirements.

The Supreme Court has upheld President Trump travel restrictions and rejected the challenge to the Trump administration’s September 2017 travel ban. (full ruling pdf below). Response from the White House – Statement from the President Regarding Supreme Court Ruling:

Today’s Supreme Court ruling is a tremendous victory for the American People and the Constitution. The Supreme Court has upheld the clear authority of the President to defend the national security of the United States.

In this era of worldwide terrorism and extremist movements bent on harming innocent civilians, we must properly vet those coming into our country. This ruling is also a moment of profound vindication following months of hysterical commentary from the media and Democratic politicians who refuse to do what it takes to secure our border and our country.

As long as I am President, I will defend the sovereignty, safety, and security of the American People, and fight for an immigration system that serves the national interests of the United States and its citizens. Our country will always be safe, secure, and protected on my watch.  ~ President Donald Trump

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/382627070/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-K5Cu2mnU7gDcuAYFnuvA

.

This has to be one of the single funniest French retorts in the history of commerce.  If President Trump follows through on auto tariffs, France will strike back.  Let that sink in.

Oh noes,… your next Peugeot, Citroen or Renault purchase might cost more.  D’oh.

PARIS (Reuters) – Europe will hit back if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with a threat to slap import tariffs on European-made cars, France’s finance minister said on Monday. Trump escalated already burning trade tensions on Friday by threatening to hit all imports of cars assembled in the European Union (EU) with a 20 percent tariff.   (more)

The EU is the most protectionist trade bloc in the world.  The German auto-sector is the most protected trade sector inside the EU.  The hypocrisy is silly.

The EU, Germany specifically, needs access to the U.S. market to survive.  Angela Merkel has already conceded this point in the EU concessionary position to abandon all auto tariffs; in exchange for removal of Steel and Aluminum tariffs.

The only reason Merkel was so quick to the trigger is because without access to the U.S. market, the German economy begins the contraction cycle currently being experienced by Canada.   It’s the same reason why Germany abandoned the Paris Climate Treaty within weeks of the official U.S. withdrawal.

President Trump doesn’t want to necessarily tax German auto imports, but he is more than willing to use the tariff hammer to crack the protectionism within the EU market.

[Harley Davidson] said on Monday it would move production of motorcycles shipped to the EU from the United States to its international facilities and forecast the retaliatory tariffs would cost the company $90-100 million a year.

Reacting to the news, Le Maire said: “Whatever allows jobs to be created in Europe goes in the right direction. We don’t want a trade war, but we will defend ourselves.” (link)

Note the hypocrisy.  EU trade positions to protect their jobs is “going in the right direction“, but Trump trade positions to protect U.S. jobs is, well, not ok?

Harley Davidson is doing what companies and manufacturers should do, build within the market they are selling to.   If the EU applied the same standard they cheer Harley Davidson for, Germany would immediately begin expanding auto production facilities inside the U.S.   See how that works.

Drop all restrictive trade barriers and no country can compete on an even playing field with the U.S.  We lead the world in innovation; we have lower energy costs, abundant raw materials; highest returns on investment; and with organic upward pressure on wages, we will once again achieve the worlds fastest growing skilled labor force.

CNBC – […] Fifty-four percent of Americans say the economy is good or excellent, the highest recorded by CNBC in the 10 years of the survey. Just 43 percent say the economy is fair or poor, the lowest in the history of the survey. Positive views on the economy have surged 20 points since the election. And for the first time, the percentage of Americans saying the economy is excellent outstrips the percent saying it is poor. Americans look for a strong 4 percent gain in their home values in the next year, equaling the highest percentage previously recorded in 2007.

The president’s economic approval numbers come with some support from Democrats, said Jay Campbell with Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster for the survey. “There is component of Democratic base that’s willing to acknowledge the improving economy and willing to give Trump a certain amount of credit for it,’’ Campbell said. “A large number still disapprove of Trump on the economy but 30 percent of Democrats is not nothing.”  (read more)