Posted originally on The Conservative Tree House on October 16, 2020 by sundance
The September retail sales show it’s a super-V recovery folks. According to Census Retail data released today [LINK HERE] – [PDF HERE] September retail sales jumped 1.9 percent, that result is triple what forecasters and economists had projected. However, the data is even better. Need more winnamins !
A September 2020 comparison to September 2019 shows last month’s retail sales jumped a whopping 5.4 percent year-over-year. That means last month saw consumer spending 5.4% higher than consumer spending before COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy. Keep in mind two-thirds of U.S. GDP is driven by retail sales and consumer spending.
Reuters is absolutely apoplectic with disappointment because their forecasters were only looking for 0.7 percent growth, and the 1.9 percent result is almost triple their expectations. Despite missing the forecast, Reuters doubles-down on a “dark cloud” narrative and sells a doomsayer message because the globalists/multinationals are sad.
(Reuters) […] Retail sales jumped 1.9% last month as consumers bought motor vehicles and clothing, dined out and splashed out on hobbies. That followed an unrevised 0.6% increase in August.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise 0.7% in September.
[…] Retail sales have bounced back above their February level, with the pandemic boosting demand for goods that complement life at home, including furniture and electronics. An aversion to public transportation has boosted motor vehicle purchases. Retail sales rose 5.4% on a year-on-year basis in September. (link)
Go read the Reuters analysis and you’ll see they are doomsaying, under the auspices that more stimulus spending is needed or the economy will collapse. Nonsense. The data is the data… and the data tells a stunningly good story that totally aligns with what I have witnessed in all of my recent travels.
Yes, some more very narrowly targeted and specifically tailored recovery spending is wise and appropriate; but a massive spending package is not needed unless we are talking about the politics of it. Politically putting money in the hands of workers/consumers is a good move…. but our economic position is not contingent upon it. The economic engine has restarted and is firing strong; more government spending is pure nitrous now.
(Via Associated Press) […] “We’re optimistic about the prospects for a strong holiday season, as people want something to look forward to and bring joy to their lives,” Shay said. “While it’s been a challenging year for everyone, there’s been an enormous amount of innovation within the retail industry and retailers have demonstrated that we can keep the economy open and operating safely.”
“Retail sales are continuing to build on the momentum we’ve seen through the summer and have been boosted by an improving labor market, a rebound in consumer confidence and elevated savings,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “A significant number of people remain unemployed, but more are going back to work and that makes them confident about spending.
September retail sales reflect the support of government measures and elevated savings that is being spent now that consumers are shopping again. With less spending on personal services such as travel and entertainment outside the home, some of that money is shifting to retail cash registers. All in all, these numbers and other economic data show the nation’s economy remains on its recovery path.” (more)
As many of you know I have been traveling extensively throughout the country as I continue to brief groups on background DC, DOJ and FBI information from my years of research. During these travels I make a point to visit sector-specific businesses to inquire about their economic and business growth status.
The disconnect amid a ground reality compared to business reporting and financial media is actually stunning. However, perhaps that is because my physical ‘on-the-ground’ inquires and reports are ahead of the natural lag in the economic data rolling up to the accounting level. Here’s what I can tell you with absolute certainty.
The amount of heavy equipment, industrial equipment, hardware and goods being moved around the country is more than I have ever witnessed or seen in decades of travel. The mid-west, mid-atlantic, southeast, and more specifically the south in general, has more haulers and semi-trucks on the road than I have ever witnessed…. ever…. by a substantial margin. The same is true for rail freight and cargo vessels.
Regardless of what financial pundits and economic media might be saying, the underlying economic activity in the U.S. right now is explosive and moving at a much more rapid pace than before the COVID crisis. Regionally, business owners and operators all report the same thing, and the same need for a larger workforce. All of them are hiring; however, some sector specifics and regional specifics are much more intense.
So here’s my final data-driven tip and prediction for you this year. Do not share it with anyone except your closest family and friends:
#1 – There will be a severe shortage of holiday gift items for purchasing this holiday season; a severe shortage. Make your list of presents now; and go buy them as soon as possible. Trust me on this… stuff will be scarce and you will not be able to find in mid-late November and/or December. Demand will be off-the-charts.
#2 – There will be a severe shortage of staple food items for holiday meal cooking. If you do cooking or baking for your family this year, buy your shelf-stable items early. Purchase your ingredients and shelf-stable food and beverage items early.
Wait for the fresh product purchases as normal, those are unaffected. However, the side items and shelf-stable food products (flour, sugars, dry spices, condiments, dried fruits etc.) will be in very limited supply.
In all consumer purchase sectors existing inventories are already too low to support the normal holiday demand..
Purchase early and avoid the panic. You will be a hero for your family.
The third quarter (July, Aug, Sept) GDP figures, which will be released on the last Friday in this month, are going to be record-breaking.