Directional Changes & the Worst in 40-Years


QUESTION: Marty; Your directional changes are amazing. They signal a change but it can be a turn as well as a sudden blast to the upside. You also mention that this is the worst you have ever seen personally in 40 years on the private blog. Could you elaborate?

Thank you for being here. There are a lot of us who are really grateful for what you are contributing. You show know that.

GR

ANSWER: Thank you. We are all in this together. This is not merely trying to pick the next trade. This is about surviving what is really unfolding.

To be a hedge fund manager, you have to look at the entire world compared to a domestic investment manager who operates exclusively in the domestic market and is oblivious to events externally. I get called in all the time into various crisis events around the world. They just need someone who can see the whole rather than has a myopic perspective. There seem to be few of us in such a position. Friends who have worked on desks at the banks internationally have just retired. It is not easy to do this sort of thing. I just have a 40-year track record and in the middle of a crisis, they really do not want someone who may have created the greatest quantitative model in history all in theory but has never actually been in the trenches. You are asking others to stake their entire career on your theory and you are wrong, they lose their job. So it gets hectic to say the least during times like this.

The Directional Change came today and yes it was a blast off. We opened in the Dow ABOVE the previous high which is an extremely bullish technical signal. A Directional Change can be a turn, but it can also be a launch pad. The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low.

Now, as to the comment I wrote today which has sparked a lot of emails. I wrote on the Private Blog ” Anyone who pretends they can forecast this based upon a personal ‘I think’ will be just luck or a fool. I have been an international hedge fund manager and analyst my whole life and this is the worst I have EVER seen in 40 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

There is complete political chaos everywhere you turn. This is not simply supporting or bashing Trump. We are fooling here with the very foundation of CONFIDENCE in the governmental system. Now throw into this cauldron the chaos politically in Europe. Stir in the insanity in Britain, the trade dispute with China, the Russian stupid sanctions, and what we get is complete chaos. Normally, capital flows have been logical. They fled to the USA for World War I and II. They fled the USA during the Civil War. Capital attempts to move away from uncertainty. What I mean as to this is the worst I have personally seen in 40 years is that we have uncertainty absolutely everywhere globally. There is no safe place for capital to hide. This is why we have seen a new record high in the Dow.

 

 

Add to this, the chaos our computer is showing in interest rates starting from October onward. On the 10-year yield, we have elected all four Monthly Bullish Reversals and that confirms a long-term change in trend which is really obvious at this point. A Quarterly closing above 3.16% and we are off to the races. We are looking at everything starting to get crazy in sovereign debt issues globally beginning in October. With the Dow Jones Industrials now making a new high for the year, the Fed will be looking more comfortable about raising rates to help the pension fund crisis that is brewing. So pay attention to interest rates in October!!!!!!!!

This is what the Reversal System was designed for. To be objective in the midst of total chaos and uncertainty. November is shaping up as a Panic Cycle in the Euro, not in the share market. In the Pound, we have a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle in October. The political risks around the world are just everywhere. This is also why we scheduled the WEC in November and just after the US elections. Personally, this is a real challenge. I cannot be everywhere around the world at the same time. The best we can do is watch the arrays and the Reversals. Just let the numbers speak for themselves. I warned that we had a Double Bullish Reversal in the Dow at 25800. Once that was elected, it has been off and running to new highs.

Sean Hannity Interviews President Trump During MAGA Rally – President Trump Notes Proactive Calls From Two Governments Surrounding FISA Declassification…


Fox News host Sean Hannity interviews President Trump moments prior to the beginning of a MAGA rally in Las Vegas, Nevada.   Very interestingly at 03:05 of the video below President Trump makes note of pro-active phone calls from two foreign governments (likely British and Australian) prior to fulfillment of the declassification releases of the FISA application used against Carter Page.  [ie. ‘spy-gate’]

As readers here are familiar, during the declassification process any potentially impacted intelligence entity or ally is contacted in advance as part of the declassification review.  It would appear, calls from U.S. intel to British and Australian intel precipitated calls from British and Australian leadership to President Trump.

Part of the declassification directive that would apply to the phone calls:

(3) all FBI reports of interviews prepared in connection with all Carter Page FISA applications.

President Trump MAGA Rally – Las Vegas, Nevada – 10pm Livestream….


Tonight President Trump is holding a MAGA campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada.  This is the first event since cancelling two rallies last week due to Hurricane Florence. The rally venue is the Las Vegas Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. President Trump is anticipated to speak at 10:00pm EST / 7:00pm PST with pre-rally speakers and events much earlier.

Part of the MAGA agenda is to support Nevada Senator Dean Heller who has been endorsed by the Trump campaign. Additionally, Republican congressional candidate Danny Tarkanian is expected to attend the rally. Tarkanian is running for the House seat now held by Heller’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Jacky Rosen. Earlier this year, President Trump nudged Tarkanian to withdraw from a primary challenge against Heller and instead run for Rosen’s seat.

UPDATE: Video Added

RSBN Livestream LinkFox News Livestream LinkAlternate Livestream Link

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President Trump Minute Message on Trade….


The U.S-Canada negotiations ended today without any progress.  President Trump delivers a video message about trade:

Trade Discussion – Canada: “No Deal Better than Bad Deal”…


Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada is in Washington DC today meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  There are conflicting reports as to the possibility of a trade deal being reached.  Canada is heavily relying on internal pressure from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbying group to sway/leverage the negotiation in their favor.

From the Canadian negotiation position every syllable and syntax is viewed through the prism of politics.  From comments amid all the Canadian participants and interests, they view President Trump as the only adversarial U.S. entity in the bilateral discussion. As a consequence of this outlook, all Canadian leverage efforts are targeted toward political opposition of President Trump; with assistance from a U.S. congress that has been purchased by Wall Street lobbyists to align with Canada against U.S. interests.

Peel all the layers away and ultimately this is the political position from which Canada is negotiating.  All-in-All, the most likely outcome is NO DEAL.

In order for Canada to accept or join, via a NAFTA 2202 modification, they would need to agree to the U.S-Mexico modification terms. For Canada they would have to:

  • Open their telecommunications and banking sector (eliminate non tariff barriers). Justin Trudeau calls these “cultural industries” and has refused any discussion on this matter.
  • Eliminate soft-wood (lumber) and aeronautics subsidies.
  • Begin a process of lowering their assembly use of Chinese/Asian goods.
  • Accept the rules of origin for North American manufacturing.
  • Eliminate protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products.  This is another issue where Justin Trudeau has expressed an unwillingness to negotiate.
  • Accept the U.S-Mexico terms for arbitration and dispute resolution.

If Canada complied with the U.S-Mexico terms, they would likely be exempted from U.S. Steel and Aluminum tariffs, and would not face auto tariffs.  However, Canada views any steel, aluminum and auto tariffs as invalid and unlawful.

WASHINGTON/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday he wanted to see flexibility from the United States if the two sides are to reach a deal on renewing NAFTA, which Washington insists must be finished by the end of the month.

Ottawa is pushing back against increasing pressure by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and its allies to make the concessions they say are needed for the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement.

“We’re interested in what could be a good deal for Canada but we’re going to need to see a certain amount of movement in order to get there and that’s certainly what we’re hoping for,” Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa.

[…] Trump has already wrapped up a side deal with Mexico and is threatening to exclude Canada if necessary. Canadian officials say they do not believe the U.S. Congress would agree to turn NAFTA into a bilateral treaty.

An influential Canadian private sector union leader, in Washington for consultations with Freeland’s team, on Wednesday played down the chances of an imminent agreement.

“Do I believe there will be a deal this week? I don’t think so,” Unifor boss Jerry Dias told reporters, saying the United States would need to move on some major files.

Trump and Trudeau spoke by telephone late on Tuesday and discussed NAFTA, the Canadian prime minister’s office said in a brief statement.

The Republican chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, Kevin Brady, told CNBC on Wednesday that “Canada needs to really step up here this week” to meet the Oct. 1 deadline set by Washington.

But U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue said it would be extremely complicated, if not impossible, for the administration to pull off a Mexico-only agreement.

“If Canada doesn’t come into the deal there is no deal,” Donohue told a media breakfast in Washington.  The Chamber, the most influential U.S. business lobby, wants NAFTA to be renegotiated as a tri-lateral agreement.  (read more)

WATCH:

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Again, the calendar to the mid-term elections looms over the perspective of Canada.  They, along with various trade affiliates, multinational corporate interests, Wall Street and political allies, are hoping for Republican losses in congress so their congressional democrat allies will finally stop Trump.

There are trillions at stake…

Political Corruption: Is It Too Late to Stop It?


Published on Sep 19, 2018

Sen. Ben Sasse proposes legislation to fulfill President Trump’s promise to ‘drain the swamp’. But will elected officials cut off their own cash-stream? Scott Ott leads Bill Whittle and Stephen Green beyond campaign slogans, to actual action in this episode of Right Angle.

Laura Ingraham Interviews Secretary of State Mike Pompeo…


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sits down with Laura Ingraham for an interview on a wide variety of topics including former Secretary of State John Kerry’s interference with current U.S. policy on Iran; ongoing issues with China; refugee resettlement and more.

Boulders of Gold Discovered in Kalgoorlie


The Australian Gold Rush began in following gold discoveries at Coolgardie in 1892 and Kalgoorlie in 1893 located 370 miles (595 km) east-northeast of Perth. Once again, miners discovered two huge boulders with an extremely high gold content. Kalgoorlie is one of Australia’s most famous gold rush events because it was largely credited drawing people from around the world to search for the precious metals. Western Australia’s population grew from a meager 49,782 in 1891 to a booming 184,124 by 1901. In just those 10 years, the region became known as the Goldfields-Esperance region, often called the Golden Mile. It has typically been called in mining the most naturally rich square mile in all the earth.

Now we have boulders worth millions of dollars. The biggest one weighing 95kg and contains over 2,400 ounces of gold. The company has now begun to dig for gold they believe is worth at least $11 million. This is a rare find given this area was the center of attraction for gold miners.

The gold content of these rocks is very high. Some hope that they will lead to an even bigger discovery in the months ahead.

The Treasure Fleet that Sunk & Set in Motion the Decline of Spain


There is little doubt that Spain was once the Financial Capital of the West. Their discovery of America produced mountains of gold and silver to the point that they really impacted the European economy creating significant waves of inflation. However, there was the War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) which was why the famous Spanish Fleet that sank on July 31st, 1715 took place. This was a massive treasure fleet that remained in the New World until the war was over because the risk of being attacked by the British was too high. The British sought to prevent the Spanish from funding themselves for the war by preventing ships carrying gold to make it to Spain. The fleet was 11 ships and they are said to have been carrying not just gold and silver, but the dowry for the Queen called the Queen’s Jewels.

When the Spanish Colonial authorities heard of the great disaster, they responded from Havana and St. Augustine. Over 1,000 men died and the survivors were few on the beach. The authorities tried to direct their efforts at salvaging the galleons. By September 1715, some survivors were still at the camp on the beach. The Spanish authorities had turned the beach into a base of salvage operations. The Spaniards claimed that they were able to recover large portions of the treasure. This may have been a tactic of the Spanish exaggerating the amount of the recovery to deter others. Nevertheless, there were pirates were responding to the wreck perhaps even as fast as the Spanish. One English privateer named Jennings was a very successful pirate in early 1716. Given the vast number of coins that have still been recovered, obviously, the Spanish never recovered any significant portion.

The War of the Spanish Succession was a European conflict of the early 18th century that was triggered by the death of the childless Charles II of Spain in November 1700. His closest heirs were members of the Austrian Habsburg and French Bourbon families. With the riches of the New World at stake, who would rule Spain was a major economic prize. This also was a critical issue in changing the European balance of power. Charles II had actually left the undivided Spanish monarchy to Louis XIV’s grandson Philip of France who was proclaimed King of Spain on November 16th, 1700. Disputes erupted over the separation of the Spanish and French crowns. In reality, in an effort to regulate the impending succession there were three principal claimants, England, the Dutch Republic, and France. During October 1698, they signed the First Treaty of Partition. They all agreed that on the death of Charles II, Prince Joseph Ferdinand, son of the elector of Bavaria, should inherit Spain, the Spanish Netherlands, and the Spanish colonies. They also allocated Spain’s Italian dependencies would be partitioned between Austria which would get the Duchy of Milan and France Naples and Sicily.

Then in February 1699, Joseph Ferdinand died. Now a second treaty was drafted and signed on June 11th, 1699, by England and France and in March 1700 by the Dutch Republic and Spain. Leopold, however, refused to sign the treaty and demanded that Charles receive all the Spanish territories intact. Therefore, we see the contest between the Bourbons of France and Spain against the Grand Alliance. Bavaria joined France in September 1702 while Savoy and Portugal joined the Grand Alliance with Austria, whose candidate was Archduke Charles, the younger son of Habsburg Emperor Leopold. This led to war breaking out in 1701.

By 1710, fighting was really at a stalemate. France was unable to conquer Italy and the Low Countries. Philip V was the secure ruler in Spain. When Archduke Charles unexpectedly succeeded as Emperor Charles VI in 1711, Britain effectively withdrew. This then forced the Allies to make peace which produced the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, followed in 1714 with Rastatt and Baden. With the British withdrawing and peace was restored, then Philip V could be confirmed as King of Spain and, in exchange, he renounced the French throne. The European territories were divided between Austria, Britain, and Savoy. Britain emerged as the key European maritime and commercial power overshadowing the Spanish and the Dutch.

Spain had borrowed heavily for this War of Succession because it could not risk bringing in its treasure fleets. Spain had become a serial defaulter beginning in 1557 followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status. The loss of the treasure fleet of 11 ships in 1715 was a crushing blow to Spain. The lost of the 1715 Treasure fleet reduced Philip V to the status of a beleaguered monarch. Philip V had badly needed all the gold and silver to pay loans. The New World wealth that had made Spain a world power in the 16th and 17th Century had now become a fraction of what it once was. Spain’s role in world affairs declined in proportion with the loss of the 1715 Treasure Fleet.

Nobody has yet found the gold, silver, and jewels that were designated as part of the dowry for his new 22-year-old wife. He had married Elisabeth Farnese of Parma by proxy in 1714 and was still trying to make a good impression on the reluctant lady. Her dowry was to be the greatest of any queen in Europe. More than 1200 pieces of rare jewelry were said to have gone down with the fleet. She was demanding that her dowry be the greatest in Europe. She requested a heart made of 130 pearls, 14-carat pearl earrings, a pure coral rosary with large sized beads and an emerald ring weighing 74 carats. The Queen’s dowry was reported to have been stored in the personal cabin of the Fleet’s senior officer. She gives a new meaning to the term “gold digger” and no doubt was a woman worthy of the title – high maintenance. Of course, they were never marriages for love or even physical attraction.

The loss of the 1715 fleet immediately resulted in the debasement of silver coins which began in 1716. The Spanish mints flooded Spain with debased silver based on the real sencillo of 3·067 g, containing 2·556 g silver. These silver coins were called plata provincial. The silver minted in America was now officially called plata nacional, but was also called plata vieja (old silver) or plata gruesa (heavy silver), and occasionally plata doble (double silver).

 

Theresa May Taking Britain Down with the EU Ship?


The talk in the city of London is that there is now a rising chance that Theresa May will be gone perhaps by November or by Christmas at the latest. About 50 conservative MPs have been thoroughly fed up with the PM. The split she has caused in the Conservative Party has certainly put the British at risk of swinging left. Now even the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry, has come out and claimed that there will be a Labour government in power “within six months”. She told the Financial Times: “They [Conservatives] are not capable of governing . . . We’re either going to have a general election in the autumn or we’re going to have it in the spring…”

Meanwhile, Juncker has effectively trashed May’s BREXIT proposals and Thornberry said: “I can’t believe [the EU] won’t give us the additional time to be able to negotiate because they know we have a completely different approach.”

This is the problem with Theresa May, she had voted to remain yet is in charge of negotiating BREXIT. Look for political fun and games in Europe to continue all the way into 2020. We have EU officials concerned about their jobs if the Euro fails and Theresa May who in her heart thinks Britain should go down with the EU ship. What a mess politicians has become on a grand scale globally