National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News for an interview with Chris Wallace discussing Trump administration trade positions.  Kudlow and Wallace were previously on the same team, and held the same positions, perspectives and outlooks.

In the face of four decades of results which cannot be refuted, Chairman Kudlow is modifying his position to align with President Trump and Main Street.  At the same time Kudlow is trying to convince Wall Street and GOPe Wallace-types to follow his lead.

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[*side note* notice how no-one ever mentions MfN status?]

In some ways POTUS Trump’s selection of Kudlow is an interesting test to see if the functionally obsolescent Wall Street-minded economists have the capacity to retool decades of flawed thinking.

Making left-wing ‘splodey heads one tweet at a time:

(Tweet Link)

After three days of discussions between U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo they were not able to develop any consensus on the major issues within the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA.

The likely outcome of the upcoming Mexican national election on July 1st brought the principals together for non-scheduled talks, as U.S. President Trump instructed Ambassador Lighthizer to explore whether the three nations could find common ground on the ‘big picture’ issues behind the largest schism.  The auto sector and rules of origin is the epicenter of the biggest difference between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

The U.S. auto-sector NAFTA position is that North American content of vehicles made in NAFTA countries be increased to 85 percent from 62.5 percent.  The Canadian and Mexican position is for lower North American content.

Canada is not arguing for higher Canadian content.  Mexico is not arguing for higher Mexican content… Instead both Canada and Mexico are arguing for higher imported content (China and Asia).  Honestly, I cannot fathom why more people don’t see the inherent ridiculousness of NAFTA against the reality of Canada and Mexico arguing for more Chinese imports.

The reason Can/Mex are arguing for more imported material content is because both of their trade economies exploit the NAFTA loophole that allows European and Asian parts to be shipped into Can/Mex, assembled, and shipped into the U.S. market without duty.

It’s bizarre; yet this is the reality.

NAFTA is so completely flawed, it is against Canada and Mexico’s financial interest for them to agree to a North American trade agreement that is structured around North American trade.

When you ask a pro-NAFTA advocate why Canada and Mexico are arguing for less Canadian and Mexican manufacturing in their NAFTA position the advocate cannot answer with any intelligence…. because their pro-NAFTA entire premise is ridiculous, and based on structural falsehoods.  Very frustrating.

Depending on which ideological broadcast or print media you review, there is a massive disconnect in their projected framework of optimism that a deal can be reached. Canadian media are desperate to find hope that any deal can be reached. Mexican media is ambivalent; and U.S. media is mostly driven by the position of multinational corporations who demand the exploitative nature of NAFTA be retained.

My gut, and the ongoing deep reviews of nuance therein, still lean heavily toward the inability of any deal to be possible because the underlying dynamic is so structurally flawed. It is against U.S. interests to stay in NAFTA. It is against Mexico and Canada’s interests to exit NAFTA. There is a massive amount of media manipulation between those polar opposite positions.

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Princess Rainbow Sparkles continues selling the Canadian position based on ‘feelings’ and ’emotion’…

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President Trump will not be attending the White House Media Awards event again this year.  According to Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump, who has feuded with several media personalities and organizations, will not attend the White House Correspondents’ Association annual black-tie dinner for the second straight year, the president of the group said on Friday.

[…]  “The White House has informed us that the president does not plan to participate in this year’s dinner but that he will actively encourage members of the executive branch to attend and join us as we celebrate the First Amendment,” Margaret Talev, the president of the White House Correspondents’ Association, said.  (link)

WASHINGTON – Attorney General Jeff Sessions today notified all U.S. Attorney’s Offices along the Southwest Border of a new “zero-tolerance policy” for offenses under 8 U.S.C. § 1325(a), which prohibits both attempted illegal entry and illegal entry into the United States by an alien. The implementation of the Attorney General’s zero-tolerance policy comes as the Department of Homeland Security reported a 203 percent increase in illegal border crossings from March 2017 to March 2018, and a 37 percent increase from February 2018 to March 2018—the largest month-to-month increase since 2011.

“The situation at our Southwest Border is unacceptable. Congress has failed to pass effective legislation that serves the national interest—that closes dangerous loopholes and fully funds a wall along our southern border. As a result, a crisis has erupted at our Southwest Border that necessitates an escalated effort to prosecute those who choose to illegally cross our border,” said Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

“To those who wish to challenge the Trump Administration’s commitment to public safety, national security, and the rule of law, I warn you: illegally entering this country will not be rewarded, but will instead be met with the full prosecutorial powers of the Department of Justice. To the Department’s prosecutors, I urge you: promoting and enforcing the rule of law is vital to protecting a nation, its borders, and its citizens. You play a critical part in fulfilling these goals, and I thank you for your continued efforts in seeing to it that our laws—and as a result, our nation—are respected.”  (read more)

(PDF LINK)

NEC Director Larry Kudlow defending President Trump’s trade policy:

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Bloomberg News to discuss U.S-China trade confrontations, the use of tariffs, and the potential for negotiations between the two nations:

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Obviously – with the ongoing issues surrounding NAFTA, and China’s exploitation of the fatal flaw therein, in combination with President Trump confronting the dragon behind the false Panda mask, the fight for MAGAnomic America-First policy execution is entering a new phase….

The multinational interests who benefited from the prior U.S. global trade approach are increasingly desperate. There are trillions at stake.

Kudlow

As CTH has continued to remind, on the issue of confronting China’s trade practices, President Trump will not back down:

WHITE HOUSE – Following a thorough investigation under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) determined that China has repeatedly engaged in practices to unfairly obtain Americas intellectual property. The practices detailed in the USTRs investigation have caused concern around the world. Chinas illicit trade practices ignored for years by Washington have destroyed thousands of American factories and millions of American jobs. On April 3, 2018, the USTR announced approximately $50 billion in proposed tariffs on imports from China as an initial means to obtain the elimination of policies and practices identified in the investigation.

Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers. In light of Chinas unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTRto consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs. I have also instructed the Secretary of Agriculture, with the support of other members of my Cabinet, to use his broad authority to implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests.

Notwithstanding these actions, the United States is still prepared to have discussions in further support of our commitment to achieving free, fair, and reciprocal trade and to protect the technology and intellectual property of American companies and American people. Trade barriers must be taken down to enhance economic growth in America and around the world. I am committed to enabling American companies and workers to compete on a level playing field around the world, and I will never allow unfair trade practices to undermine American interests.  (read more)

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.

We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!

The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.

Yesterday U.S. Trade Represenative Robert Lighthizer and Mexico’s Minister Ildefonso Guajardo met in Washington DC for a bilateral discussion. Likely one of the key avenues for Lighthizer to explore surrounded the upcoming election of a hardline Marxist in Mexico and how Guajardo views the impact to Mexican policy therein.

At this point it’s virtually guaranteed that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will win the election – I would VERY strongly bet on that outcome (likelihood 85%).  That puts a Hugo Chavez type ideologue, and the attached economic policies, at our southern border. [Pro-Tip: prepare your business affairs accordingly now, and avoid the chaos later]

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland arrived in Washington DC today to join Lighthizer and Guajardo and expand the informal discussion toward a trilateral trade discussion.

Thankfully Lighthizer is on his home turf because he’s now surrounded by left-wing globalist advocates from Mexico, Canada and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce via Tom Donohue.

There was some media talk, and a hint from Trump’s NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow yesterday, about the U.S. strongly wanting to have an agreement on principle utilizing the cornerstone of the Auto-Sector as a building block.

However, I cannot caution strongly enough that NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow is in love with NAFTA and POTUS Trump is not.  So filter Kudlow’s optimistic glee against his trade worship with NAFTA.

Larry Kudlow and U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue are BFF’s on NAFTA, and will extort maximum pressure on President Trump from congressional allies in that regard.

Do not be surprised to see Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan and the entire Decepticon wing of the GOPe go nuclear against Trump in the near future; while Kudlow works quietly to assist the objective.  Tom Donohue has hundreds of “billions” to pass out in golden annuity parachutes for any congressperson who will destroy themselves during a suicidal charge against the Trump administration.

If they stick to their historic approach (and there’s no reason to see them changing it) U.S. CoC President Donohue will coordinate the attacks, but stay behind the curtain.  This is an issue where the Republican apparatus will willingly give up massive seats in House and Senate mid-term races to retain their access to the U.S. CoC checkbook.

Within Washington DC nothing is more important than money and several hundred million for a congressional reps family makes it easy to walk away.

The only voices on the other side of this confrontation are President Trump, Wilbur Ross, Steven Mnuchin and Peter Navarro.  Everyone else inside and outside the administration, along with Wall Street, the swamp (writ large), CONservative media, Fox News and K-Street, is essentially against them and supporting open-ended global trade with China and fully exploitative NAFTA.

From the timing of the meeting yesterday it was likely U.S.T.R. Lighthizer was testing to see if he could leverage the predictable Mexican election outcome into a renewed sense of urgency amid more reasonable business voices in Mexico…. no-one knows the outcome, but I doubt his success.

Globalists and multinational interests would rather have a Marxist in office in Mexico than run the risk of trade markets outside their control.  There are trillions at stake.

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