WHY Things Happen

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, do you think it was destiny that you were somehow intended to discover the hidden order behind the Business Cycle?


QUESTION #2: Martin,

I have a friend who has been working on getting Roe v. Wade overturned.  In a groups chat, my daughter mentioned to him how this was going to go into the history books and their generation will be telling our children about it.

It then occurred to me that this could go down in the history books in ways that most do not yet perceive. If your models are correct, this may well be one of the “Ft. Sumpter events” that ultimately lead to a regional breakup of the U.S. by 2032.

Out of curiosity, when did your models first forecast the 2032 breakup?

ANSWER: This is all part of the decline and fall of the United States. There is no constitutional right to abortion any more than there is a constitutional right that the government must provide you with medicare. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. Read the language of the 5th Amendment — “No person shall be held…” It is a restraint upon government; it is NOT a positive list of rights. Read the text! It is always in the tone that the government shall not do whatever. They held that implicit in the 5th Amendment, there was a right to privacy. That was in the context of Griswold v Connecticut having to do with condoms. That was fashioned into Roe v Wade, and it was crafted to REDUCE the population of minorities. It was a racist decision. Justice Ginsberg made that clear, and she stood for women’s rights.

People then tried to force the government to pay for abortions. That is when HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980) was decided to point out that the Constitution is NEGATIVE, and thus no right compels the government to pay for abortion. From a legal perspective, there is NO right to abortion any more than there is a right that the government must pay for your healthcare, divorce, or any social benefits. This is the problem of SOCIALISM and that politicians have misrepresented the Constitution to win office on a pure lie.

The rhetoric that a woman’s life cannot be saved in a dangerous birth is absurd. The law in question limited the abortion right to within the first 15 weeks. The facts do not support this rhetoric. There is just this toxic absurd claim to some constitutional right that never existed. It will further divide the states, and I would welcome the separation of the United States. It is absurd that the assumed power of Washington can force social laws upon the whole, as it merely invites the destruction of the United States. Similarly, such measures destroyed Rome.

As Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:” “The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father [TRUMP] always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. 

As much as things change – they always remain the same. The name just changes.

I first published that forecast of 2032 back in 1979. That is when I published my findings in what I named the “WHY Report.” I don’t have a single copy of that report as it was lost in the allies of time. I did expand it and republished it again in 1981 after it successfully picked the 1981 high in interest rates. The second edition was published once more in July 1983. I have at least one copy of that one. I hear they all go for well over $1,000 these days; I should probably buy the first two.

I found it very interesting that perhaps I was destined to discover this model after the fact that it was accurate to a day because it was based upon pi – 8.6 years = 3,145 days. Note that the office address was Suite 314. The house I grew up in was 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey.

The title of that report was my number one question to my parents. I was always curious and asked “why” about everything. My mother would sometimes just respond, “BECAUSE!” So I named the report after my constant question. I suppose I could have been a real pain back then. If it was something I was interested in, I dove in over my head. If it was a boring subject, I really did not pay attention.

I began to use it myself in 1976. I observed it beginning in 1966. I had watched the boom-bust move from market to market — stocks, collectibles, real estate, and interest rates. Each time I had thought the bust was unique to that one market, I began to see that there was no exception. Everything rallied with an emotional peak, and then the crash would come when you could not sell what everyone wanted just months before.

I had gotten divorced but kept my kids. I was living at 16 Palmetto Ave, Marlton, New Jersey, but traveling 1 hour to Princeton every day. So I put my house up for sale, and for months nobody even came to look. Then a couple came. I think he owned some stores like a 7/11, but I don’t recall. He walked in and said he would buy it, but I had to be out in 30 days because his wife was very pregnant. I said, “No problem.” I took my two kids, and we moved into a hotel in Princeton as I began my search for a new home.

I then bought a house at 17 Abey Drive in Pennington, New Jersey, where I raised my kids. It was pointed out to me that 16 was 2x 8 and 17.2 is 2 x 8.6. So I suppose I have always lived with addressed that were linked to pi.

I do not know if it was destiny. I understand many people believe we are here for some purpose. Even in Asia, the idea of reincarnation in Hinduism is perhaps as old as Hinduism itself. General Patton had told my father that he was reincarnated and sent back to win the war. He said he was a General many times in history and said he would describe how they fought battles even under Alexander the Great. I do not have any recollection of past lives, so I cannot answer that question of destiny. Perhaps it is true or just a coincidence. Who knows.

And they are Off – the ’22 Mid-Terms

Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Jun 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Since we no longer know the definition of a woman, then why are the women coming out to protest against overruling Roe v Wade? This is obviously no longer a woman’s right. I guess under this slogan, does that mean Hillary will have to vote Republican? To think, Jeffrey Epstein was killed before he could have argued to prove they were a woman. This just gets crazier by the day.

Horror in San Antonio, Texas, At Least 42 People Found Dead Inside Abandoned Semi Trailer During Human Smuggling Operation

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

This is an almost unimaginable horror in San Antonio, Texas.  This is also the outcome of the Biden administration and Democrats open border policy that fuels the desperate efforts of illegal aliens and predatory human smugglers.

(KSAT News) – San Antonio – At least 42 people were found dead inside a tractor-trailer on the Southwest Side, and 16 others were taken to area hospitals in varying conditions, according to multiple SAPD sources.

Several San Antonio police vehicles, as well as fire trucks and ambulances, are covering a portion of Quintana Road on the Southwest Side. Crews are surrounding an 18-wheeler near the 9600 block of Quintana Road next to railroad tracks. (READ MORE)

A Combative Interview Between Bret Baier and Arizona Governor Candidate Kari Lake, Video

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Fox News propagandist Bret Baier continues his devolution into the external appearance of a human Cabbage Patch doll, while intellectually his leftist DNA has won the battle for his frontal cortex.  After delivering a love-fest interview for establishment GOP candidate Karrin Taylor Robinson last week, Baier sharpened the knives for MAGA candidate Kari Lake.

Within the interview [Direct Rumble Link Here} Brett Baier accused Kari Lake of throwing transgender parties at her home and participating in drag queen sex shows.  Mrs. Lake was furious at the outlandish claims by Fox News, and then things got ugly.   WATCH:

Fox News is well positioned to hire Adam Kinzinger as a host next to Trey Gowdy. The Arizona state Primary Election will be held on Tuesday, August 2, 2022.

Daughter of Mayra Flores Stands Her Ground After Shove from Nancy Pelosi

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Nancy Pelosi shoved the daughter of newly elected Republican Latina Mayra Flores during the swearing in ceremony.  However, the undeterred young lady stood her ground and smiled like a princess.

Pelosi, a typical democrat, doesn’t like brown people getting out of place. {Direct Rumble LinkWATCH:

Representative Mayra Flores responded to the video on Twitter: “I am so proud of my strong, beautiful daughter for not allowing this to faze her. She continued to smile and pose for the picture like a Queen,” the congresswoman’s official campaign account tweeted. “No child should be pushed to the side for a photo op. PERIOD!!

French President Macron Wants Sanctioned Oil from Iran and Venezuela to Replace Russian Oil, Willfully Blind Joe Biden Likely to Agree

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

It is quite remarkable to consider that almost 100% of these global issues could immediately disappear if the far-left ideologues behind Joe Biden would just unleash the American energy sector.  Alas, the seemingly religious cult of climate ideology will not allow it…. therefore we get these bizarre outcomes.

The U.S. has economic sanctions against oil exports from Iran, Venezuela and now Russia.  The EU is economically collapsing under their inability to power their economies without energy products, a specific outcome of the latest NATO and EU sanctions against Russia.

The green energy programs in the EU cannot sustain the needs of the population.  As a result, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron are asking Joe Biden to lift sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and let Iranian and Venezuelan oil replace the missing Russian oil.  Again, none of this would be needed if the U.S. just developed more oil and gas domestically; but Biden won’t change policy.

(Reuters) – The international community should explore all options to alleviate a Russian squeeze of energy supplies that has spiked prices, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela, a French presidency official said on Monday.

Venezuela has been under U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, and could reroute crude if those restrictions were lifted.  Indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive a nuclear deal that could see sanctions on Tehran lifted and its oil exports resume have been on hold since March, but are due to resume in Doha soon.

“There are resources elsewhere that need to be explored,” a French official said on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Germany, when asked about how to alleviate high oil prices.

The outstanding issue between Iran and the United States was no longer linked to the nuclear dossier but to U.S. terrorism sanctions, he said.

“So there is a knot that needs to be untied if applicable… to get Iranian oil back on the market,” the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We have Venezuelan oil that also needs to come back to the market.”

A second official said all options need to be explored given the stakes, including those involving Iran and Venezuela.

The first official called for a temporary increase in production from oil-producing nations, and said there would be an effort to try and convince them to do so.

[…] French President Emmanuel Macron was caught by Reuters TV rushing to tell Biden that he had spoken to United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), who had told him that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could barely increase oil production. (read more)

Apparently, when you overlay the geopolitical western chase for climate change ideology, some sanctions become less important than others.

Saudi Arabia cannot replace Russian, American, Iranian and Venezuelan oil for the western governments; it would simply be too high of a production demand for Saudi Arabia to accomplish.   The western industrialized nations know this reality, although they keep pretending publicly that some alternative solution is possible, and they are now flummoxed about how to remove former ideological sanctions against Iran and Venezuela without exposing the insanity of their geopolitics.

All of this is only happening because the western alliance is chasing the pipe dream theory behind “Build Back Better.”   The supposed “green energy” programs can never compensate for the efficient use of oil and gas, yet they must pretend not to admit this reality in order to sustain the decades of lies behind their climate change claims.

It’s creating a hot mess of hypocrisy that one would hope the world will eventually notice.

Obama Called the Gas Tax Holiday a Gimmick

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

President Joe Biden is calling for a three-month gas tax holiday to lower the price at the pump. Interestingly, former President Obama opposed a gas tax holiday when energy prices were much lower. In fact, he called temporarily suspending the tax a “gimmick.” The US government currently charges 18 centers per gallon of gasoline and 24 cents per gallon of diesel.

In his 2020 memoir “A Promised Land,” Obama stated that opposing the temporary suspension was one of the reasons he beat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 US Presidential Election. “I was sure that consumers wouldn’t see much benefit. In fact, gas station owners were just as likely to keep gas prices high and boost their own profits as they were to pass the three-cents-a-gallon savings on to motorists,” Obama stated in his memoir after noting that Clinton and GOP candidate McCain both endorsed the idea.

Numerous politicians from both sides of the spectrum have stated that they cannot guarantee a tax holiday would ease consumer costs. In the face of the current energy crisis, a measly tax break will not help those struggling to afford gasoline in a significant way. Instead, America needs to boost production, reimplement pipeline deals, and begin fracking until a viable alternative option is available.

This is all COLLAPSING and they’re making it worse | Redacted with Clayton Morris

Redacted News  Published originally on Rumble on June 23, 2022 

President Biden keeps trying to spin the inflation as Putin’s Price Hike as he rolls out a ridiculous gas tax holiday. The New York Times now admits Russian sanctions are a failure. And now they’re saying Unions are Putin’s fault.

Inflation Creating Cracks in the G7

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Phone conversations with sources are revealing that inflation is starting to create cracks in the unity of the G7 against Russia for the summit of G7 nations in Bavaria (June 26-28). Already, the leaders of the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan are not in accord. The people are not in support of this endless war with Russia and are looking at their personal costs thanks to inflation. The Europeans which include Germany, France, and Italy are expressing that the people want an end to this war and that Ukraine should surrender the Donbas. They are not prepared to see their living standards collapse for a war that they see as a civil war. This is starting to show up in polls that they have been taking.

The UK is taking the position of the Baltic States and Poland who collectively fear that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine that they will be next. This seems to be really propaganda that they have bought from Zelensky. Putin has made NO EFFORT to conquer Ukraine. If that was the objective, you first take out the power grid, then communications, followed by the water supply. Zelensky has been willing to sacrifice his own people for the territory that is occupied by Russians who he hates. It takes a blind politician not to see through Zelensky’s hatred and stuffing hundreds of million offshore.

Indeed, if China is smart, it can continue to reduce exports and force prices up even higher in the West. Likewise, the rising inflation may not be because of the war, but the lockdowns caused the collapse of the supply chain and now many are starting to blame Western sanctions for the rising costs of gas and oil, and the massive shortage of wheat and fertilizer. As I have said before, one major tactic in war is to undermine your opponent’s currency. With this crop of world leaders, we have the worst possible people in place in human history. They cannot see that they have made the West vulnerable. Our computer should that wars will escalate starting next year, but international war is more likely after 2024.

My fear is that the sheer stupidity that now dominates world leaders here in the West are playing checkers while Putin and Xi are playing chess. Even Boris Johnson in the UK has announced he effectively wants to be a dictator for life. He said he has no intentions of leaving his position until the mid-2030s!

And Klauss Schwabs wants to eliminate Democracy!

They do not want any more Trumps to come to play in their sandbox.

Ahead of G7 Germany asks for Urgent Discussion on Inflation, Climate Policy and Worsening Energy Crisis

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 25, 2022 | sundance 

For those not paying close attention, the G7 is in serious trouble right now.  The G7 includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and Germany.  The EU and Japan are on the verge of a central bank financial crisis.  Germany is the heart of the EU and their economy is FUBAR as a result of sanctions against Russia, their energy dependence and an internal inflation rate exceeding 30%.

The G7 spending response to the COVID pandemic, a collective decision outlined by the World Economic Forum and central bank organizers, has created a massive inflation crisis amid all attached economies.  Making matters worse the Build Back Better agenda promoting climate friendly energy policy over fossil fuels is pouring gasoline on the raging inferno of economic disruption.

The EU and Japanese central banks are tenuous at best, and the U.S. has seemingly positioned Europe and Asia for even further economic pain as a result of sanctions against Russia (EU) and a contracting U.S. economy impacting Asia.  The intentional global cleaving is not working out too well as the G7 leaders assemble for their summit in the Bavarian Alps.   This is the backdrop for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.  In essence, the G7 climate policy cannot be sustained simultaneously with the German economy surviving:

GERMANY –  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he wants to put soaring inflation, the energy crisis and climate change at the center of the agenda when he meets fellow G7 leaders at Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps.  

Germany, which holds this year’s G7 rotating presidency, is hosting the gathering of the heads of state and government of the world’s seven leading industrialized nations from Sunday through Tuesday.

“Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine is also having an impact here,” Scholz said in his video podcast on Saturday, pointing to steep rises in the prices of food and energy.

“Many things we buy are more expensive. Food, but especially the prices for energy. We notice that at the petrol station, we notice that when we have to pay the heating bill. Heating oil, gas — everything is much more expensive than a year ago,” he said, adding: “That’s why we have to prepare for it.”

The chancellor said the G7 leaders would discuss the current situation triggered by the war “and at the same time ensure that we stop man-made climate change.”

He stressed the need for a “climate club” to enable countries to work together to combat climate change as well as the current geopolitical and inflation crises. (read more)

For those unfamiliar with history, finance and global economics…  The current geopolitical scenario is coalescing toward one specific outcome, WAR With Russia.

The only way out of the economic crisis the western alliance has created, is to go to war.

These are very serious times.

Beware the needs of the banks, the drumbeats of war always originate against a backdrop of empty vaults.