Population & Social Security – Civil Unrest

Armstrong Economics Blog/Population Re-Posted May 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Dear Martin and AE Team,
Thank you for everything you do and have done for us, the little people.
My question is this. As you/Socrates have predicted the fall of governments on a global scale, along with the collapse in confidence, of which I am the poster child for, I was a lifelong Democrat, but no longer, I have completely lost all confidence in our government. My concern is what do you or Socrates think is going to happen to Social Security. I will be turning 62 very soon and think that given everything that is going on, I should take what I can get NOW, because it doesn’t look like Social Security will be around after 2033. Does Socrates have any predictions on this. I would think there are a lot of other AE subscribers in the same predicament. Any opinion (not advice) on this would be gratefully appreciated.

Thank you very much,


ANSWER #1: It is a difficult question. Inflation will erode what you get anyhow. But there will come a point in time when the whole thing goes belly-up. It was January 1935, when President Roosevelt sent his “Economic Security Bill” to Capitol Hill. On August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) President Roosevelt signed the bill into law at a ceremony in the White House Cabinet Room. The likelihood of SS coming to a complete end will be 2029.6. Just keep in mind that they will pay only what is owed and they will not take into account real inflation. Just ask those who were promised pensions from Venezuela. When they were finally paid, what would have covered a month’s living expenses would buy a cup of coffee.

The problem that we have with Social Security is that the entire system is a Ponzi Scheme. It needs population growth to keep paying taxes to pay for the previous generation. As you know, I was called in to reform Social Security and turn it into a wealth fund that actually invested back in the Nineties. The Democrats would not vote for it claiming it was more secure investing in government binds exclusively, and if it was privatized they wanted to change the fund managers when they go back in power. The whole thing was a joke.

QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming obvious that _______ no longer publish your forecasts because they are like the Biden Administration and will only publish people taking your work as long as they claim gold will rise to $40,000. If I remember correctly, you said the postwar period of the baby boom was the peak in population growth and that a decline into 2028 would unfold but the low would be after 2032? How low is low?

Concerned Reader


ANSWER: Those who are always desperate to claim everything will go down except for gold are spouting out their personal bias which prevents them from looking at the real trend. The eventual low in population may not arrive until 2040. As far as how low is low, that should be about a 50% reduction up there with the Black Plague.

We have war, but on top of that, we have climate change that is heading to colder – not warmer periods. That is when crops fail and that results in malnutrition and this disease rises. These mandatory COVID vaccines are probably the catalyst for a sharp rise in disease. Viruses mutate. That is their function in this world. The more you vaccinate unnecessarily, the more mutations will emerge from the viruses to survive. That means they will get worse there y defeating the vaccines. Those who were NOT vaccinated will stand a far better shot at surviving.

Just look at the antibiotics. The overuse of these drugs has led to superbugs evolving that are not incurable. The CDC has even stated that the overuse of antibiotics has led to superbugs. Interestingly, even the World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in 2014 warned that ‘The world will run out of effective antibiotics.” The WEF stated the link between the overuse of antibiotics was causing antibiotic resistance and superbugs in hospitals. This has increased the death rates of many people. They concluded that antibiotic-resistant bacteria posed the greatest risk to human health. Others have noted that bacteria are growing stronger and acquiring resistance to multiple drugs. (Spellberg, Bartlett, & Gilbert, 2013).

To me, it is hard to imagine that this demand for 100% vaccinations for COVID is a risk to humanity for the COVID-19 virus will mutate to defeat all possible vaccines as what is already taking place with antibiotics.

The more volcanoes that are erupting (3 now in Alaska), the greater the chance of volcanic winter. If that unfolds on top of this food shortage created by the COVID Lockdowns and the crazy Climate Change people who want to terminate all fossil fuels right now, we are looking at a lethal combination of events that can certainly lead to a 509% reduction in the population by 2040.

There are plenty of people who are taking our forecasts and pretending they have derived this all on their own. Sorry. This comes from a computer that has been putting that forecast out for the last 20 years by correlating everything. You cannot simply look at war and claim that is your source. This is a combination of events – it is never a single cause and effect.

QUESTION #3: Marty, there were a number of major financial institutions there in Orlando and two central bankers I overheard in a conversation. They were all focused on not your international war cycle, but your cycle of civil unrest. I think the punch line was that was much more serious. Do you have any updates on that here midterm?

Thanks really for you and your team. They are standing by society in a time we need it. My hat is off to your entire staff.


ANSWER #3: Yes, Civil Unrest is actually far more dangerous than international war. As I have warned many times, the Civil Unrest is what leads to revolutions. The International War lead to a reduction in population, and they can lead to civil unrest as was the case in Germany following WWI when they overthrew the monarchy. World civil unrest turned up sharply with the ECM turning point of 2020.05.

That said, the #1 question I do get right now from our global banking clients, investment firms, and international hedge funds has been about the civil unrest forecasts. They saw the uprising in Pakistan because of rising inflation. The polls here show that inflation is the #1 concern. There are more people concerned about the Johnny Depp trial than Roe v Wade. Even Walt Disney has suffered a major collapse in their trust following their attack on DeSantis. Sorry, but most parents do not want third graders being told they might be gay. This entire WOKE movement has undermined the confidence in corporations and government.

Our institutional clients are bracing themselves for a surge in civil unrest in the US, but especially in Europe including Great Britain. This entire insanity of trying to shut down fossil fuels BEFORE you have a viable alternative is not just sending energy prices to the Moon, but food prices are exploding and shortages are expanding. This is a combination that is b behind our computer forecasts on the Civil Unrest models we have published for the last 40 years.

Our models on Civil Unrest go back to 600BC which is significantly different than the international war which goes back to 6000BC starting with recorded history covering Europe and Asia.

And BTW, this is not a one-man-band. Our staff is around the world. We have Staff in China, Europe, Middles East, and SE Asia. They deserve the recognition. They are committed to what we do try to provide answers and forecasts for the largest international audience of anyone.

Day Two of Sussmann Trial Tells us More About Defense Than Prosecution

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 19, 2022 | sundance

The second day of witness testimony in the trial of Michael Sussmann for lying to the FBI was completed on Wednesday.  For a good recap of the granular aspects Techno Fog has a play-by-play SUMMARY HERE.

For CTH readers I want to focus on a point that is visible in the defense argument and challenging, insofar as it has not yet been revealed, in the prosecution position.   The issue surrounds why Rodney Joffe gave the Alfa-bank fraudulent information to Michael Sussmann instead of just giving it to the FBI himself.  {A Question Margot Cleveland posits here}

In the cross examination of the first set of prosecution witnesses the defense lawyers keep contending that Sussmann did not lie about the fraudulently created origin of the Alfa-Bank material and there was no reason for him not to tell the FBI he was a courier for the Clinton campaign.  The defense is essentially that Sussmann and the FBI knew he was working for the Clinton campaign when he delivered the fraudulent material.  Sussmann wasn’t trying to hide anything, ergo he didn’t lie.

Sussmann’s defensive point is essentially true.  The DOJ, FBI and everyone associated with the information knew they were receiving opposition research from the Clinton campaign.  However, the FBI had to pretend they didn’t know in order to use it to start an investigation.

Margot Cleveland notes at the time in 2016 when these events took place, Rodney Joffe was actually a confidential informant for the FBI.

At the same time Joffe was a CI, he was creating false evidence for the Clinton campaign to bolster their politically motivated Trump-Russia collusion nonsense; the “October Surprise.”

Joffe was dropped as a confidential informant (CI) in 2021 “for cause,” meaning he did something that eventually violated the FBI rules for CI’s to be operating.  It’s possible the John Durham investigation had something to do with that decision.

The question for the 2016 events is why Joffe didn’t just give the material to the FBI instead of giving it to Sussmann to give to the FBI?

The answer is really quite simple.  The priority of the “October Surprise” was to get the media to write the Trump-Russia collusion stories before the election, hoping the cloud of suspicion would help Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump.

It was the media that was important, not just the FBI.

As a confidential informant Rodney Joffe could not take the information to his FBI handler and simultaneously give that information to the media.  That would be a violation of the CI rules.   If Joffe gave the material to the FBI and then the same FBI saw articles written about the material, they would know: (a) that Joffe violated the rules; and (b) the information was transparently political and thereby useless to them.

However, Michael Sussmann could give the material to the FBI and simultaneously give it to the media in a ‘wrap up smear’ move.

The media were told the FBI had the Alfa-Bank material under investigation, that gave the illusion of credibility. The media then asked the FBI if they did have an investigation of the material and wrote their articles accordingly.

The media articles carried additional weight because the suspicions existing connected to actual material within an FBI investigation gave the suspicions more credibility.

This is the exact same reason why several months later, March 2017, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), Vice-Chairman Mark Warner, told the SSCI security director James Wolfe to leak Carter Page FISA application to journalist Ali Watkins.  Same approach as Sussmann.

In 2016 Michael Sussmann wanted media articles verifying Donald Trump as an investigative target of the FBI to help Hillary Clinton.

In 2017 Mark Warner wanted media articles verifying Donald Trump’s campaign officials as investigative targets of the FBI to get a special counsel appointed.

In both examples the primary motive was to use the media to get an outcome.

Michael Sussmann was the delivery agent to the FBI so that the Perkins Coie law firm to lean on their media allies to spread the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy.   Sussmann had a pre-existing relationship with FBI Counsel Jim Baker that would be useful for that purpose.  Hence, the origin of the case that is now being argued in court.

It was the media angle that was more important, the FBI angle was only to bolster the credibility of the accusation.

Hope that helps.

Elon Musk Announces Publicly He Can No Longer Support Democrats, Will Vote Republican

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance

Elon Musk has publicly announced today he can no longer vote for Democrat candidates and will instead vote for Republican candidates. [Tweet Link Here] This is a rather bold move for a man who is now putting himself in the forefront of the modern Democrat hate furnace.

He appears very aware of the level of opposition he will now face as a result of calling the Democrat party the “party of division and hate,” despite the bold truth expressed.   In an earlier tweet he stated, “political attacks on me will escalate dramatically in coming months;” and when Musk says “on me” he likely understands that means on all he represents, including his businesses.

Elon Musk looks more and more like John Galt every day.

Despite all the challenges, and perhaps because the righteous battle is always fought on the right side of history, we are alive in very remarkable times.  This decision by Mr. Musk will embolden many more to join us…..  Happy warriors.

Expert Witness During House Judiciary Committee, Encapsulates Abortion Position of Modern Democrats

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance 

In Washington, D.C. today, the House Judiciary Committee held a four-hour hearing about the need for abortion [full video here].  Within the hearing one of the congressional witnesses, Ms. Aimee Arrambide, Executive Director of Avow Texas, was asked about her position.  Her response encapsulates the mindset of current democrats in office.  WATCH (20 seconds):

Comrade Dissidents, if these people think their views are commonly understood, even fathomable, by the majority of commonsense thinking Americans, I seriously doubt they have any concept of what common sense actually implies.   This is just flat-out weird.

Official Pennsylvania Republican Senate Primary Result Will Likely Take Weeks to Decide

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance 

I think we all knew the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary race was going to be close, but wow, it’s really close.   As of right now, only 1,750 votes separate Mehmet Oz and David McCormick, or a mere .2% of the more than 1.3 million votes cast.

According to the Philadelphia Enquirer there are approximately 105,000 mail-in ballots to be counted and no one knows how many of them are republican ballots.  Politico is estimating around 21,000 of them are republican ballots.

Regardless of the outcome from the mail-in ballots, it seems a recount is a certainty as Pennsylvania state law requires an automatic recount if the difference is less than half of one percent (.50%).

PENNSYLVANIA – […] Pennsylvania law requires an automatic statewide recount if the top two candidates in a race are within half a percentage point of each other, which Oz and McCormick currently are.

The secretary of state will make that determination by “the second Thursday following the day of the election,” which would be May 26.

The recount would be run by the individual counties, and it would have to start no later than June 1 and be completed by noon on June 7. Counties would have to submit results to the state by June 8. (Non-recounted races need to be certified by June 6.)

Recounts rarely change the results of elections, even incredibly close ones. Races with margins even in the low thousands usually hold. But in the closest of elections, small shifts in the corrected count can have an effect on the eventual winner.  (read more)

In the big picture it looks like the GOPe effort to split the MAGA base to benefit David McCormick almost worked.  Kathy Barnette ended up a strong third place.

The only factor that pushed Dr. Oz to the top of the race was the endorsement by President Donald Trump.  Without President Trump’s endorsement there’s no way Dr Oz could have won (perhaps) Pennsylvania.

Hopefully that means Oz will keep America-First at the very top of the policy agenda as he heads into the general election against a big time socialist, John Fetterman, the Democrat candidate.

In the interim, it looks like we will have to wait until after June 8th to know the official winner on the republican side.

Primary Elections in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania – Results and Open Discussion

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | Sundance 

Today is the primary voting day in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, & Pennsylvania.  Results will begin coming out tonight.  Consider this an open discussion and results thread (will remain atop site throughout).

Polls close in Kentucky at 6:00pm (EDT) / 7:00pm for counties using Central time, North Carolina at 7:30pm (EDT)Pennsylvania at 8:00 pm (EDT)Idaho at 8:00 p.m. (MDT) / 9:00pm for counties using Pacific time, and finally Oregon at 8 pm (PDT) Oregon primary is mostly by mail.

New York Times – Election RESULTS HERE


Decision Desk HQ – Election Results HERE

Politico – Election Results HERE

The most watched race tonight will likely be the republican Pennsylvania Senate primary race between Kathy Barnette, David McCormick and Mehmet Oz.  Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00pm EST.

Project Veritas Catches Vicious Twitter Executive Dismissing Free Speech and Mocking People with Asperger’s, Elon Musk Reacts

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 17, 2022 | Sundance 

It did not take Elon Musk long to react to the second explosive undercover video of Twitter executives disparaging free speech and even mocking Musk for Asperger’s.   This will not end well for Mr. Alex Martinez, Lead Client Partner for Twitter advertising.

[NEW YORK – May 17, 2022] Project Veritas has published the second part of their series on Twitter. This story features undercover footage of Lead Client Partner, Alex Martinez, an employee for the tech giant, who sometimes speaks on behalf of the company at events. This footage shows a very candid Martinez speaking about how the company’s “ideology” led them to be less “profitable,” among other incendiary comments.

[…] Martinez even made distasteful comments about Musk having Asperger’s. “He has Asperger’s,” Martinez says at one point adding, “so, he’s special.” Going further, Martinez later says, “We all know that and that’s fine. So here, no one’s going to say some f**king crazy sh*t because he’s special.” (read more)

The successful entrepreneur, SpaceX and Tesla CEO, and world’s richest man responded via Twitter.

Ukraine Government Sets Up Website to Sell Swag and T-Shirts While Accepting Donations and Corporate Sponsorships to Keep World Interested

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 17, 2022 | Sundance

…We call it ‘World War Reddit‘ for a reason.

In February the White House said strategic victory in Ukraine would be dependent on who can win the cultural war of social likeability {link}.  In March the White House and State Dept recruited a battalion of TikTok influencers so they could dance and sing about Ukraine and Russia for their audiences in social media {link}.  In April USAID announced they would coordinate entertainment resources to keep the public interested in Ukraine and Bono was recruited to sing in Kyiv {link}.

Following along with the coordinated scheduling, Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats took turns rotating through Kyiv with Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans.   Boris Johnson from the U.K and Justin from Canada also took their entourages into Kyiv to hold media events and photo ops with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

All of the U.S. propaganda efforts originate from within the strategy teams at the U.S. State Dept.  It is the Dept of State who coordinates with U.S. intelligence, Hollywood and big tech social media to frame the overall narrative.  Big Tech and social media assist by blocking any platform content that does not fit the narrative created by the State Dept.

In totality, the scale of the effort is one big propaganda operation intended to influence public opinion while congress infuses over $60 billion directly into the military and indirectly into the propaganda effort of the State Dept.   However, despite all of that the global crowd can become bored with the constant Ukraine bombardment effort.

To avoid losing global priority the Zelenskyy government has set up a website to take donations, selling Ukraine swag and t-shirts, and help keep the pop culture effort supported.  AP has more:

UKRAINE (AP) – […]  The Ukrainian government is marrying some digital marketing tools with crowdfunding and other incentives for giving to keep global attention trained on its war efforts against the Russian invasion.

“There is a wave and there is this kind of euphoria, but then it abates,” Mykhailo Fedorov, vice prime minister of Ukraine and minister of digital transformation, told The Associated Press. “We want to keep up this positive energy, the positive vibes.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tasked Fedorov, 31, the youngest member of the nation’s cabinet, with setting up a new fundraising campaign and website to encourage donations for the country’s defense, humanitarian aid and reconstruction.

That resulted in the United24 website and campaign that lets donors send funds via PayPal, cryptocurrency, credit card or direct bank transfer to the state’s accounts.

“It’s very important that people helping Ukraine are not paying money directly all the time, but that they have some fun,” said Yaroslava Gres, who runs a public relations company and is one of the coordinators of the project. (read more)

Special Prosecutor Frames the Background of the Sussmann Case, The FBI Was Manipulated, Duped by Clinton Campaign

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 17, 2022 | Sundance

New York Times narrative engineer Charlie Savage is tweeting from within a packed media center at the E. Barrett Prettyman courthouse in Washington DC for the government case against Clinton lawyer Michael Sussmann. [TWEET THREAD]  The mentions and notations, while skewed toward the self interest of media, give us a good insight into what is taking place in the courtroom.

First things first. All media reporting of this case will be done through the prism of their own cooperation in the perpetration of the fraud.  The MSM knew along with everyone else inside and outside of government, that their efforts to create the Trump-Russia conspiracy and collusion narrative were based on fraudulent pretext manufactured by the Clinton campaign.  They all knew it. They all acted collaboratively and they all engaged purposefully.

As noted by Charlie Savage, prosecutor Deborah Shaw, a member of the Durham team, delivered the opening remarks to frame the government position in the case.

The telling remarks came early: “Shaw addresses “the elephant in the room” – tells jury their feelings about Russia, Trump, Clinton can’t play a role in the case. This is about “our FBI” which should not be used as a tool by anyone, Republicans or Democrats.”  In essence, prosecutor Shaw is telling the jury the FBI were duped into the Trump-Russia conspiracy investigation by outsiders connected to the Clinton campaign.

That’s a critical baseline from the government we must understand and accept.  That baseline now indicates that none of the DOJ and FBI operatives involved in the fraudulent scheme will be held accountable by the Durham team.  “Our FBI should not be used as a tool by anyone,” yet they were, so sayeth the United States Government.

There you have it folks.  For those who tried to avoid the uncomfortable reality of the situation. The Durham prosecution has set down the cornerstone establishing the DOJ/FBI was used and tricked.

The prosecution cannot later turn toward DOJ and FBI officials who were victimized by the Clinton outside group, reverse the predicate motive of the prior trial, and then hold the DOJ and FBI legally accountable.

That’s that.

The Durham accountability focus is now narrowed to the Clinton team, starting with Michael Sussmann.

This outcome was always visible when we accept the totality of the Robert Mueller probe as an overlay into this entire scenario.  Put into a question I have asked for two years:

How could John Durham hold DOJ and FBI officials accountable for participating in the Trump-Russia fraud, when those same DOJ and FBI officials were part of the Robert Mueller cover-up operation? 

Answer, they can’t.   If Durham were to connect the conspiracy of the outside government and inside government collusion, he would be penetrating an impregnable firewall that would take down multiple DC government institutions simultaneously.

Durham is being permitted to give the illusion of accountability, but he was not authorized or permitted to expose the Dept of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, or any other institution.

The vehicles of our justice institutions are rusted and broken.

Bill Barr was the Bondo application.  John Durham is the spray paint.

The question asked two years ago is answered.

Elon Musk Describes Current Status of Twitter Offer in His Own Words

Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on May 17, 2022 | Sundance 

The Elon Musk appearance on the All-In podcast has generated a lot of news.  Below is the entire interview.

The first 20 minutes is worth watching if you do not have the time for the entire broadcast.  WATCH: