Resistance is not Futile – it is Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Comment from Ireland: It seems your 2018 article was correct & more or less on time.

“From a cyclical perspective, if we begin on August 15th, 1969, then we are concluding a 51.6-year wave on 2021.2219178, which will be March 22nd. It is lining up with the Economic Confidence Model and the Monetary Crisis Cycle. Therefore, the violence will reemerge with a new trend once again driven by economics. Violence has continued sporadically but it has been rising gradually again since 2013.”

Belfast violence of a scale not seen in recent years – PSNI
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2021/0408/1208593-psni/SM

1969.55

REPLY: It is my hope that people understand that these forecasts are NOT based upon my opinion. There is a cyclical nature to everything. The key is to open your eyes and look around you. If there is anything I can contribute to society before I am released from this chaotic world, I hope it will be the fact that we make that first step for mankind departing linear analysis and moving to the dynamic world of nonlinear activity where they finally grasp that everything has a cycle.

Cyclically, the time is now. From the landing on the Moon (1969.55), we have now reached 2021.15, marking the attempt to change the world once again on the negative side. The turning point before 1969.55 was 1917.95. Ironically, it was on Dember 15, 1917, when an armistice was signed between the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic on the one side and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Kingdom of Bulgaria, the German Empire, and the Ottoman Empire on the other. Communism was given the green light. Unfortunately, this particular cycle has warned that we indeed face the rise of tyranny once more here in 2021.

Resistance is not futile — it is inevitable.

Our War Index


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Apr 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty,

I noticed the inclusion in the Global Market report in the world indexes a new listing for The War Index. What does this include(presumably armament stocks?) or is this a construct that comprises something geopolitical?

MS

ANSWER: This is an index we created with selected stocks that benefit during periods of war. This index is right now flirting with the Monthly Bullish Reversal, and we may get a monthly buy signal by the end of this month, warning that things are not looking very stable on the geopolitical front as we head into May.

Food Index


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Apr 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In addition to our War Index and our Paradigm Shift Index, we are creating a Food Index based upon selected stocks. For now, keep an eye on the closing this month in our War Index. That is hovering right at the Monthly Bullish Reversal.

We are trying to provide tools free of conflicts of interest since we are not brokers in these instruments nor are we allowed to hold positions in them while providing forecasting. Such conflicts of interest are why those with such conflicts cannot be taken seriously by global institutions.

Trouble Ahead, Inflation Jumps More than Expected – Gasoline Prices Increase 9.1% in One Month, Year Over Year Inflation 2.6%


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 13, 2021 | Sundance | 333 Comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights some alarming inflation numbers today [Link Here] that are unfortunately, not unexpected…. unless you are a liberally trained economist (most of them) and so the results are surprisingly “unexpected”.    But the actual JoeBama-nomic policy is even worse because wages increased less than inflation increased, so real wages (actual purchasing power) decreased.  That spells trouble, Trouble.

Middle-class wage earners already know this problem; you are seeing it at the gas pumps and at the grocery store.  Fuel prices are rapidly increasing and the amount of inflation in the ‘at home’ food industry (grocery store) is even more concerning.

Let me first walk through the data and then provide some forward analysis with tips to help you offset what is about to hit.

First, it is important to know that BLS price survey data lags actual prices as felt today.  The prices you are seeing today/tommorrow at the store and gas pump will not show up in the rolled-up data for over a month….  So the data released today is unfortunately far behind what you are witnessing in real time.

Gas prices rose last month by 9.1%.  The year-over-year inflation number is an alarming 2.6 percent last month.  Keep in mind that retail grocery prices are not in the inflation number, and they generally follow the same price index as fuel; so it is safe to say monthly grocery store price increases are in the 8 to 10 percent range.

Part of the reason gas and food track together is fuel and energy prices are the #2 cost within the food sector.  With packaging prices increasing; with fuel prices and distribution costs increasing; with energy prices increasing; all costs associated with food production, processing, delivery, warehousing and distribution, all end up in the final price at the grocery store.

This problem with inflation is only going to get worse as the FED gets more involved (that’s coming), because interest rates are already disconnected from the economic costs associated with business investment. [Note: the Fed said last year that it would hold its benchmark interest rate near zero, for some time, even if inflation were to rise above its preferred rate.]  JoeBama is returning us to a “service driven economy”, and that is a problem for inflation.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic (USA First) increased wages and lowered prices (deflation) {Go Deep} but hurt Wall Street.  JoeBama’s globalist policies lower U.S. wages and increase prices (inflation) but increase Wall Street (via multinationals).

Gas prices are going to keep rising because JoeBama is shutting down U.S. energy sources, blocking pipelines and using regulation to stall energy development (including refineries).  We will be back to energy dependence soon.  This process will continue driving up food prices which is really bad for the middle-class.

In the longer term, the impact of wages purchasing less means middle-class housing prices will drop as people struggle to afford mortgages.  However, the Wall Street gains will keep the upper tier real estate market less impacted.  You can see how the wealth gap is directly attributed to policy.

Trump decreased the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a good way) helped the middle-class and blue-collar worker by increasing wages.  JoeBama expands the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a bad way) hurt the middle-class and blue-collar worker by decreasing real wages and increasing prices.  Under JoeBama-nomics the rich get richer and the poor get more poor.

If you know that fuel and food prices are going to increase, you can take action now to plan out your home budget in an effort to offset or cope with the inflation.  Example: buy bulk items that can last longer as ingredients.  You can also save money by making your own laundry detergent, shop sales, cut coupons and be proactive in preparation for a period of large price increases at the supermarket.  Use your freezer and eat out less.

Employment is going to be an issue again.  While the current employment picture is good, it will not last into 2022.  Make a safety net now (somehow) and start thinking about your longer term expenses and how you can take action now in preparation.

I am not a doomsayer… but I can see when supply chains start to fill up because overall demand begins to stall.  We are exactly at that point.

BIDENomics – Weekly Jobless Claims “Unexpectedly” Higher With 744,000 New Claims


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 8, 2021 | Sundance | 151 Comments

All of JoeBama’s economic policies mirror the Obama-Biden economic issues. Underline it; emphasize it; note the pattern.  The policies that intentionally held down the U.S. economy during the Obama administration are once again being duplicated.  It’s Déjà vu all over again.

JoeBama’s energy policy is crushing jobs in key regions where energy jobs are being lost in dramatic fashion.  Simultaneously the costs of energy, including gas, are skyrocketing.

The longer-term costs have not yet hit the consumer, but they will soon as inflation will jump dramatically while employment will continue to struggle because consumer demand will drop… The issues create a cascading cycle.

The Biden administration is hiding their actual policy impact by blaming COVID, but that’s not the issue that will hurt blue-collar workers in the longest term.  We are going back into the intentional disconnect I have talked about where the stock market (multinationals) will gain, but the U.S. worker economy will suffer lost jobs and lower wages. This dichotomy is by design and the corporate media economists never discuss it.

This reality is a big part of the reason why Pelosi and JoeBama needed to quickly pump money into the working class in order to avoid the pitchforks.  However, that $2,000 injection will not last and will be eaten up quickly by the larger and longer term Biden economic policy.

The U.S. economy, which is 70% dependent on consumer spending, is going to contract.  This contraction will be “unexpected” by the professional pundit class who check their stock holdings and smile.  However, this contraction will not be unexpected by the blue-collar workers who watch their paychecks shrink and their costs to live (electricity, fuel, food prices) increase beyond their earnings.

If you are a blue-collar or white-collar worker in a BLUE region or state, you will feel the impact first.  It is going to get very ugly, as noted by the disparity in the unemployment claims this week.  Weekly unemployment claims [Dept of Labor pdf here] tell the story.

(CNBC) – […] First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week despite other signs of healing in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

First-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000. The four-week moving average edged higher to 723,750. (link)

The negative results are continuing on a ‘Red State’ -vs- ‘Blue State’ dynamic as noted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting: “In February, the highest unemployment rates among the divisions were in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, 10.9 percent, and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ, 10.8 percent.”

For the weekly jobless claims, here’s the breakdown by state:

(Source pdf)

Do not dismiss these results as just bad policy.  There is also a strong ideological component as the Chicago Crew is driving the granular issues on a day-to-day basis.  The Obama team intentionally work to diminish the economy of the United States because their “fundamental change” requires it.   Joe Biden is an idiot and has no clue about what is structurally behind all the moves…. That’s why Obama installed Kamala Harris.

The professional republican class are corporatists; do not expect them to oppose any of these policies that undermine the U.S. economy and expand globalism.  The GOP is paid by the corporations to act stupid and go along.

The road to serfdom is paved with fraudulent intentions….

Farmer Protests Rising


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Apr 8, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

People are unaware of the agenda with food and why Bill Gates has become the largest holder of farmland in the United States. There is a whole new agenda unfolding, and, of course, mainstream media has been bought off. Farmers in France and Croatia are standing up to EU policies. Farmers in France have even brought in tractors to combat the police. The goal appears to be to end traditional farming and ranching as we have known it. Europe is 100% under the control of the World Economic Forum and now has a new seed law that CRIMINALIZES traditional seed saving. They are using drones and satellites now to monitor all fishing in real-time.

Croatians are deeply concerned about the EU Ag Census, which takes total inventory of all food production — farms, animals, bees, anything — because it was only 1945 when Yugoslavia LAST conducted such a census prior to seizing control of all farms, transforming it into a state-run collectivized industry. The government then ordered all farmers off their land. The patterns are the same, which is reminiscent of the communist total takeover.

Croatians are deeply concerned about the EU Ag Census, which takes total inventory of all food production — farms, animals, bees, anything — because it was only 1945 when Yugoslavia LAST conducted such a census prior to seizing control of all farms, transforming it into a state-run collectivized industry. The government then ordered all farmers off their land. The patterns are the same, which is reminiscent of the communist total takeover.

I strongly recommend that you watch “Mr. Jones,” the movie about how the New York Times tried to hide the truth about 7 million Ukrainians starving to death because of the Communist takeover of farmland. There are people who are greatly concerned about Bill Gates, who is an excessive climate change activist who has been funding everything that is furthering this Great Reset.

Bill Gates is most likely also buying up farmland to impose his own private objective for climate change in altering traditional farming as well. He has publicly written:

“The agriculture sector is important. With more productive seeds we can avoid deforestation and help Africa deal with the climate difficulty they already face. It is unclear how cheap biofuels can be but if they are cheap it can solve the aviation and truck emissions.”

Many are deeply concerned that Gates is genetically altering the food supply and the agenda is not about just creating biofuels.

Europe Becoming Ruthless in the Name of Protecting People


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Apr 8, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

n Brussels, the Capitol of Europe, the police are simply attacking the people with ruthless disregard for human rights. They even rode right over people with their horses. If there was ever a justification for revolution, you are witnesses that in Europe now where the government has taken COVID as an excuse to alter the entire economy to BUILD BACK BETTER. The government is denying the people any say in their own future whatsoever.

What is going on in Europe is just astonishing. I have personal friends who have fled to the Middle East just to save their children. It is sad to watch the people being plowed down, but even worse to watch the police enforcing this tyranny.


COMMENT NETHERLANDS:Hello Mr. Armstrong,While browsing the dutch wikipedia I was shocked reading the intro of the WEF: the partyleader of Netherlands’ 2nd party (D66) Sigried Kaag is member of the WEF supervisory board. Last week, most of our political parties were engaged in a political hit job against Mark Rutte. I remembers me of the drumbeats against Trump with the media singing the socialists’ tune.So last thursday Parliament has officially accused him of lying whilst all witnesses testified he didn’t. Only the anonymous note-taker – most likely a cilvil servant – wrote the offending passage. If Mark won’t become PM of his 4th cabinet, then most likely Sigried Kaag will become PM. This stinks, a lot. Kaag is pro-EU, pro-UN and adores Klaus.As Mark is the most senior PM (with Merkel) in the EU, has a lot of respect and knows everyone in Europe, Netherlands and elsewhere, he is widely highly regarded. I can’t see a stable Europe, Netherlands if he would concede to this parliamentary blackmail. What say you?Kind regards,EGPS. Keep up the good work, hope for some more articles in Socrates sections.


COMMENT: I know you do not operate by rumor and thank god för that. There are starting to circulate information in the Netherlands that the ME police Implemented to shutdown demonstrations is a special task force from the EU. The following link for further information: (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Gendarmerie_Force)

Thank you!

J


COMMENT: Hello Martin,
Wauw, this is all getting more and more scary by the day. I read your blog daily, for years now. We just had elections in the Netherlands this Wednesday, no surprising outcome , really. Our prime minister Mr Mark Rutte won again and will form his new government soon. I always thought your predictions would happen, but NOT in the Netherlands. Haha, am I wrong. More and more I see Mark Rutte´s face appearing in films on the WEF, and guess what, a newly upcoming partylady Siegried Kaag, soon to join the government, is also formly involved in the WEF, as is the son of our Minister of Justice.
Kind regards from the Netherlands, JvH


COMMENT:

Hi Marty,

so I told you the resistance in the Netherlands is nill
we had elections yesterday

so this is the preliminary outcome :
VVD = MARK RUTTE
D66 = SIGRID KAAG
and then of course we have “Queen” Maxima Zorreguita,
the daughter of the Argentina Minister Zorreguita, who now is saying “ich habe es nicht gewusst”,
who was detrimental in canceling the Dutch culture from the moment she got crowned

PVV is the follow up of 2001 assassinated Pim Fortuyn,
who was about to push out the establishment,
but this party now has a weak leader and is severely infiltrated

CDA is the ancient Catholics middle of the road,
PvdA is the labour, SP the Marxist socialistic party

then we have FvD, the new threat to the establishment,
however in their rocket launch upwards,
they have been heavily infiltrated, attacked, nihilated, divided by the establishment

for the first time ever we also have voting by mail and voting spread out over a longer time, not just a single day
and of course many did not sign the vote, so they mutually agreed to accept the non signed votes
… the US election fraud has landed in Europe

this election outcome is really not the reflection of what the people are thinking
however many have been severely brainwashed
so when I just was testing the opinions in my own environment I expected an outcome like this

there have been many brave people working night and day to inform the population,
but the brainwashing and created fear is so strong,
people become very aggressive and do attack any deviating opinion, so it is dangerous to express one

so I guess we are doomed
I have been looking for years where to escape to, but can not find it
honestly, I was thinking Russia may become a serious option?

Archegos Capital Management Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Apr 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Archegos Capital was founded by the former Tiger Management equity analyst, Bill Hwang. Archegos Capital, the “home office” hedge fund owned by Bill Hwang, lost an unbelievable $110 billion in just five days. The strategy was the classic leverage using SWAPS. They never purchased shares of stocks in companies like ViacomCBS. Archegos Capital was entering into equity swaps with numerous different banks and investment banks in a similar manner to what would be called money laundering where we borrow from one bank to pay off another.

By engaging SWAPS, Archegos Capital never actually owned shares of the underlying stock. What they did was effectively leveraged themselves by as much as 500%, which would prove to be their undoing. The problem with such hedge funds is that they really take a personal view of the performance of the market going forward. This is ALWAYS the undoing of these hedge funds going back to Long-Term Capital Management which took a fundamental view that they would make a guaranteed fortune on the high interest of Russian debt and that bribes were being paid in the IMF that they thought would keep the loans going to Russia without end.

I cannot stress enough that ANY fund which is dominated by fundamental expectations that override quantitative models, should be AVOIDED like the plague. We are into a whole new world of finance which is moving in a counter-reaction to the Great Reset. There is NO QUESTION that the March 2020 crash was not only UNIQUE in history, it was clearly an assault that attempted to create another 2007-2009 economic contraction which would have made facilitated the Great Reset by the intentional destruction of the economy. They have had to rely upon the virus scare to accomplished what they had hoped would have be a far easier road.

What Gives Value to a Currency?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin, can you explain to me how a currency would sustain value for international trade if a country, like Canada (where I live), did what you suggested and stopped issuing debt and just printed money to level that was 5% – 10% of national GDP? would it depend on the attractiveness of what a country exports eg: Canada exports oil, lumber, crops like wheat/soy/canola, minerals – both precious and functional? What would happen to a country that didn’t have exports as a significant portion of it’s GDP? I am curious about how currencies would react to your restructuring plan that eliminated the need for a country to issue debt. Thanks for all your insights and theories. Very helpful.

Trapped in Canada with an egoistic misguided Prime Minister who doesn’t appear to like Canada (he keeps telling us how awful we are) or Canadians, he prefers spending time with global elites and is following their plan even though it damages Canada pretty significantly.
MB

ANSWER: Right now, every country spends more than it takes in. The deficits are funded by selling debt, which then competes against the private sector. The interest rates rise and fall on sovereign debt based upon the confidence from one week to the next. If they stopped borrowing, then the capital investment would turn to the private sector, creating more economic growth. If income taxes were eliminated, the economy would grow based upon innovation which is what it should be driven by.

The confidence in the currency would simply depend upon the strength of the economy, as was the case for Athens and Rome in ancient times. Their coinage was imitated because they were the dominant economies of their time. The value of a currency is the strength of its economy. It has NEVER been about its backing, which is purely a theory that arrived with paper money. Rome had no national debt. The value of the currency was more than its metal content. Here we have a gold aureus of Septimus Severus (193-211 AD) and the imitation in gold made in India. The imitation weighed more than the original. Imitations were made in the same quality of metal, so it proves that it was not a counterfeit but that a coin from the core economy possessed a greater value than the raw metal.

Just compare Russia, which has tremendous resources, against China, Japan, and Germany that had really no gold reserves. Russia did not expand its economy while the others boomed because of its people. The value of a currency is the TOTAL productive capacity of its economy — the work ethic of its people. Russia has not been able to rise substantially because it never fully embraced the idea of capitalism. They moved from communism to an oligarchy.