Beijing Beats New York City


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted May 6, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people often send nasty emails because they do not like the forecast that China will become the next financial capital of the world. The forecasts we put out are NOT based upon my OPINION. I simply report what the computer projects. This Great Reset is playing right into our forecast, for they are deliberately destroying the economy so they can “BUILD BACK BETTER,” as they like to say.

The problem is that they are ignorant of world history. The victor in war is NOT simply the person who has the largest army. There must be some advantage and that boils down to economics. The one with the strongest economy is the victor because they have the capacity to fund the war.

This is why barbarians could never invade Rome until the Roman Empire’s monetary system began to collapse following the capital of Emperor VBalerian I in 260AD. Even Alexander the Great was able to take the Persians because they lost their greatest and were unable to defend against a well-supported army. The South lost against the North in the American Civil War because the North was industrial whereas the South was primarily agrarian.

Deliberately destroying our economy so they can “Build Back Better” while creating food shortages and trying to end raising cattle because of CO2, has set the West on the course to economic decline. This has made the West vulnerable just as was the case with the Roman Empire.

Now everyone is starting to notice and even CNBC says that China will surpass the United States by 2028. Granted, the analytical field seems to notice trends of this nature only when it smacks them in their face. We published the report “China on the Rise” back in 2018.

Now New York City, thanks to Socialists who think they can keep taxing the rich without end,   lost its title as the home of more billionaires than anywhere else. Beijing has now taken that title. Some people think my reliance on history is foolish. History repeats because human nature is always the same.

Mainz

New York is dying. It is, in trading terms, a major SHORT! NYC is following the same path as Mainz. It was the city of Mainz where the Gutenberg printing press was invented. This created an economic boom and everyone wanted to be in Mainz. The politicians saw the boom and presumed the potential tax revenue was linear and would be endless – judging tomorrow by today’s trend. They began to borrow against what they anticipated would be there forever. As they needed the interest to pay for borrowing and became addicted to debt, they raised taxes.

The taxes kept rising so they killed the economic boom and people began to leave. Mainz followed the typical path as we are doing today. They were no longer paying off debt. They entered the Ponzi scheme – issued new debt to pay off the old in a revolving bond auction. Taxes kept rising and people migrated. The printing press was no longer unique to Mainz. The rich left town, taking their capital and entrepreneurship with them. When Mainz lost the confidence of the bond buyers and could no longer sell new debt to pay for the old, the collapse unfolded. Mainz, like Detroit, defaulted. The creditors sacked the city and it was burned to the ground.

The same precise pattern unfolds every time – WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Why? Human nature never changes. Create career politicians and they will always seek to expand government for that is their power base. All that is left is a nice monument commemorating Guttenberg. Of course, they never tell the full story of Mainz.

New York City is making all the same mistakes like clockwork. They think people can be exploited without end. There comes a point where it no longer is beneficial to work as a slave. Why invest in anything if those in power simply want to take whatever you invent.

I pray for 2032 to end corruption and drive a stake through the heart of republican forms of government. We need a new path and anyone who calls for exploiting one class to benefit another should be subject to life imprisonment where they can enjoy carefree and tax-free living in a world of equality.

Shortage of Chickens


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The orchestrated COVID pandemic to change the economy for the BUILD BACK BETTER Great Reset has set in motion food shortages that are now emerging. Farmers have had to plow their crops under, and one had to kill over 30,000 chickens because they simply could not get them to market. Sales of produced collapsed as much as 75% in 2020 compared to 2019 in some areas. Even in Europe, the cold weather has destroyed crops. As I have said, these morons look at the world only in a single dimension. They had no idea that locking people down to lower CO2 meant that they were also cutting off the supply chain in technology to food.

There is a shortage now of chickens, and don’t worry, it will move to beef as well. Add their scheme for a cyber attack, and the future looks really crazy because nobody will lock these people up, no less dare to investigate them. So be warned. This will get far worse post-2024. We should all send a thank you note to Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates for starters.

DOJ Attempts to Get Involved in Arizona Ballot Audit – As Predicted DOJ Civil Rights Division Cites Lawfare Activists and Media Reports as Evidence of Concern


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 5, 2021 | Sundance | 147 Comments

Everyone knew this was coming…. The Feds are attempting to get involved in the Maricopa County ballot audit.  The DOJ Civil Rights Division has sent a letter [pdf available here] to the Arizona State Senate claiming their review of Lawfare statements and media reports may show evidence of auditing issues that violate federal laws.

Last week a group of Lawfare activists [SEE HERE], including New York University Law School – which leads to Andrew Weissmann, asked the DOJ to get involved.

The ridiculous letter from the Biden DOJ goes on to cite media reports from the Washington Post as evidence to justify their involvement.

Remember, previously the DOJ narrative was that each state makes up its own election rules.  Now the DOJ is saying, falsely, that Arizona might be breaking federal laws.

Their first concern [as predicted] centers around ballot security.  Again, remember, the Maricopa County election board would not let the auditors use the county tabulation center [SEE HERE] so the ballots and equipment had to be moved to Veterans Memorial Coliseum (AZ State Fairgrounds).   Now the DOJ is citing that move as a potential issue for the security of the ballots and auditing procedures.

The first issue relates to a number of reports suggesting that the ballots, elections systems, and election materials that are the subject of the Maricopa County audit are no longer under the ultimate control of state and local elections officials, are not being adequately safeguarded by contractors at an insecure facility, and are at risk of being lost, stolen, altered, compromised or destroyed.

Federal law creates a duty to safeguard and preserve federal election records. The Department is charged with enforcement of provisions of the Civil Rights Act of 1960, 52 U.S.C. §§ 20701-20706. This statute requires state and local election officials to maintain, for twenty-two months after the conduct of an election for federal office, “all records and papers” relating to any “act requisite to voting in such election.”

The DOJ’s second issue is even more obtuse. They cite federal election law for voters rights, as the DOJ is worried that auditors will visit -and intimidate- people and places who have a record of multiple ballots from the same address or non residence:

The second issue relates to the Cyber Ninjas’ statement of work for this audit. Among other things, the statement of work indicates that the contractor has been working “with a number of individuals” to “identify voter registrations that did not make sense, and then knock on doors to confirm if valid voters actually lived at the stated address.” … these federal preservation and retention requirements for elections records is to “secure a more effective protection of the right to vote.”
The statement of work also indicates that the contractor will “select a minimum of three precincts” in Maricopa County “with a high number of anomalies” in order “to conduct an audit of voting history” and that voters may be contacted through a “combination of phone calls and physical canvassing” to “collect information of whether the individual voted in the election” in November 2020. Statement of Work at ¶ 5.1. This description of the proposed work of the audit raises concerns regarding potential intimidation of voters. The Department enforces a number of federal statutes that prohibit intimidation of persons for voting or attempting to vote. For example, Section 11(b) of the Voting Rights Act provides that “No person, whether acting under color of law or otherwise, shall intimidate, threaten, or coerce, or attempt to intimidate, threaten, or coerce any person for voting or attempting to vote, or intimidate, threaten, or coerce, or attempt to intimidate, threaten, or coerce any person for urging or aiding any person to vote or attempt to vote…”

Both issues are moot; but the DOJ effort to intervene in the audit should not be taken lightly.  Democrats in Arizona, the Lawfare group, the media and the DOJ are all working together to undermine the audit.

The Arizona State Senate should tell the DOJ to go pound sand; however, the DOJ effort is really an attempt to build a framework to undermine the results of the audit if/when fraud is uncovered.

The DOJ is making a concerted effort to assist the Biden administration in retaining the fraud.  That’s the bottom line.

Here’s the letter: 

We all know where this is coming from…

Liz Cheney Runs to The Washington Post to Present Her Case Against President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 5, 2021 | Sundance | 306 Comments

Decepticon Representative Liz Cheney has gone to The Washington Post to request their support in presenting her ideological case against President Donald J Trump.

…. because the first outlet “Republicans” consider when they want to talk to other Republicans is The Washington Post right? /sarc… I digress.

Rather than spend time on this insufferable creature who is no longer relevant to the issues we face, allow me to point out the transparently obvious.

For over a decade the one constant in an ever-changing universe has been the specific outlets used to push public relations narratives.  Because this pattern is so predictable we have drawn attention to it frequently.

  • When the Intelligence Community wants PR support they use The Washington Post.
  • When the FBI team want PR support they use The New York Times and Politico
  • When the State Dept. Want’s PR support they use CNN

.

Liz Cheney runs to The Washington Post.  What does that tell you?

Fake News Knows What It is Doing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I wrote to the ________ news and pointed out that you had a computer model that beat all the models that Gates-funded to use to create these lockdowns. They never responded.

HJ

ANSWER: Oh it is worse than that. One of the top five newspapers in the world wanted to write a story about Socrates and its forecasts with respect to COVID. We spoke, and then two weeks later, the powers from above said NO!

It is not a question of them not being aware. They know precisely about Socrates, yet the powers that be give directions not to cover Socrates, for it goes against the narrative. Perhaps if enough people wrote to Fox or the Hill, they might report something. But they too are afraid of stepping into this mess, for they might drown in a swamp filled with quicksand.

Supply v Demand – Does It Always Work?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You say that wheat fell during the Great Depression during the Dust Bowl when supply would have declined. This makes no sense. Would you address that question?

KL

ANSWER: Your problem is typical in analysis. It appears that 99% of the people always try to reduce some event to a single cause and effect. Everything is connected like a line of dominoes. You are not just pushing over a single one. The action has a ripple effect that moves through the entire world economy and is not even restricted to a single nation.

I do not make stuff up to try to prove a point. I have been curious to discover how things really work. When I say we have the largest database in the world, I am not joking. Just as I have been a collector of various things, that includes data. It is easy to find a yearly chart of wheat, but not daily or weekly during that period. Here is how wheat responded during the Great Depression on a weekly basis. Note that it peaked about 4 weeks before the stock market. Then you see a huge gap down in 1931.

This was caused by the wholesale defaults of just about every nation. Some went into a moratorium and suspended payments on their debt like Britain. But most outright defaulted and you can buy their bonds usually on eBay.

Here is the impact of the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis. The dollar soared on our index from roughly the 112 level to nearly 160. That was high which exceeded even World War I levels. That illustrates just how high the dollar rallied. Because wheat was priced in dollars, it fell in terms of dollars while rising in terms of other currencies because of their defaults.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in 1931 during the Depression because they feared that the dollar would collapse because confidence in government globally collapsed.

Now, look at the unemployment. It soared as well. Because people lost their jobs, demand declined with supply. So you see, this is a far more complex issue than meets the eye. It is also why I say governments should NEVER be allowed to manipulate the economy. They always focus on a single cause and effect and never look at the whole.

Consequently, while supply contracts, your assumption that price should rise is predicated upon demand remaining the same or rising. Therein lies your answer. That is simply a false assumption.

The Decline & Fall of the USA & Rise of China


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted May 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The obsession with climate change and the manipulated models they have put forth that only look at data post-1850 is interestingly fulfilling our model that China will become the financial capital of the world. The billionaires pushing this agenda and the hair-brain ideas behind the Great Reset undermine the Western economy and our very culture. The woke movement is further dividing the people as everyone seems to be offended by something. What builds a civilization is much like a relationship between a husband and wife. As long as it is mutually beneficial, the relationship flourishes. As soon as each only looks for themselves, divorce becomes inevitable. This is what the woke movement is doing — dividing the people and that eliminates the mutual benefit of remaining together as a nation-state or civilization.

China will NOT join the West in destroying its economy to BUILD BACK BETTER. In fact, Su Wei, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that “Because renewable energy (sources such as) wind and solar power are intermittent and unstable, we must rely on a stable power source … We have no other choice. For a period of time, we may need to use coal power as a point of flexible adjustment.”

China will NOT follow this woke movement, but it will also pay only lip-service to this Great Reset and BUILD BACK BETTER agenda. The collapse of communism in 1989 was economically driven. Once Bretton Woods collapsed, China was forced to deal with the real world. The USA peaked in 1977, initially benefiting itself from the sharp rise in energy. China has posted positive economic growth since the fall of communism, whereas the United States plunged negatively during the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis, and once again thanks to the manufactured COVID Financial Crisis. This BUILD BACK BETTER agenda will permanently dismantle the Western economy and transfer economic growth and innovation to China.

So when we look ahead at the markets, we must change the way we see the world, for it is changing in ways people have not yet appreciated. Because of the endless borrowing with no intention of ever paying anything back by those in government, we are entering the last stage of the ECM wave – authoritarianism because they have fiscally mismanaged everything possible.

Ted Cruz Shares Picture of His Dinner With President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2021 | Sundance | 187 Comments

Ted Cruz tweeted this picture to his followers.  I just cannot stop laughing….

.

There’s a particular smile, a politically constipated smile, on Ted Cruz’s face that has a similarity to another….

.

They hate Trump so much for all the reasons we like him…. and they have to kiss his butt…. and he knows that…. and THAT makes me laugh.

President Trump Activates Web Page – Direct from The Desk of Donald J Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2021 | Sundance | 81 Comments

President Trump has activated a website platform where he can communicate directly with the American People.   It’s a sub-page within the Donald J Trump website:

.

[LINK to WEB PAGE]

I would anticipate Big Tech to disable the sharing functions of the web page.

Hubris, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki Says President Trump Started the Border Crisis, Joe Biden Trying to Clean it Up


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2021 | Sundance | 127 Comments

A remarkable display of Alinsky-inspired hubris today from the White House Press Secretary.

“I wanted to provide an update on the situation at our southern border. After four years of an immigration system rooted in destructive and chaotic policies, President Biden is taking the challenge head-on and is building a fair, orderly and humane immigration system; that’s our objective.  After coming into office, uh, our administration immediately jumped into action to address the influx of migrants at the border, something that began during -and was exacerbated by- the Trump administration; er, and wanted to provide data, pieces of data, you may have seen but they’ve come out since the last time we’ve had a briefing in here”…https://www.youtube.com/embed/NDAbOFP2vI0?feature=oembed

.

What this tells me is…. in the background political operatives (and polling) are telling the JoeBama administration the border crisis is a toxic issue that will likely hurt the Democrats in the next mid-term election cycle.  The White House response to deploy the Alinsky gaslighting is a very familiar tactic when there is urgency amid the liars to get out in front of a politically damaging position.

Unfortunately for Psaki, the reality, facts and a poor decision to give Biden T-shirts to the illegal alien horde, begs to differ.