The President is Not a Patriot

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Joe Biden incited violence on Independence Day by claiming that the country was “moving backward.” Is he not the elected official in control of America? Biden was referencing the Supreme Court decision to remove abortion as a constitutional right. This is his very last talking point to garner votes as his administration has managed to ruin the nation’s economy in record time.

“Liberty is under assault, both here and abroad,” Biden stated. “In recent days, there’s been reason to think this country is moving backward, that freedom is being reduced, that rights we assumed were protected are no longer.”

The president was not alone in his anti-America tirade. A slew of celebrities took to the internet over the weekend to criticize America as well, claiming that Independence Day celebrations were canceled this year due to the Roe v. Wade ruling. These same celebrities live luxurious lives due to the rights offered to them by the Constitution. They are also the same people who notoriously back the left during campaigns and offer free publicity for politicians. Forget the fact that people can no longer afford to live due to inflation fueled by the policies of the current administration. They want to divert our attention away from the real problems so that we see America as a failed nation – divided we fall.

Monmouth Poll Compiles Top 22 Priorities of American People, Ukraine v Russia and J6 Committee Outcome Does Not Appear on List

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 5, 2022 | Sundance 

Monmouth University conducted another political poll of U.S respondents [SEE Survey HERE].  In addition to the plummeting approval of Joe Biden, the worst yet approval at 36% according to the survey, the respondents were asked to list their top concerns (Question #7).

The responses were recorded but did not come from a list presented by Monmouth.  They just compiled the results.  As stated, “what is the biggest concern facing your family right now?”  The results show the top priorities of Americans and the disconnect between the priorities of congress and the American people are stark.

(Source, Question #7)

Nowhere on the expressed concerns did anyone identify supporting Ukraine or the Russia -v- Ukraine conflict, as a priority; yet, Ukraine has taken up almost all of the legislative effort from congress.  The total taxpayer-funded congressional spending is nearing $100 billion.  Additionally absent from the concerns of the American people, is any mention of the January 6th committee; again, another time wasted political exercise by a congress detached from the priorities of the electorate.

The top priorities are what we would expect to see, economic issues.  Inflation, Gas Prices, the Economy and the ability to pay everyday bills (groceries) are the priorities of the American people.  All of these issues are directly caused by Joe Biden and the policy of his administration.  Climate change, the #1 focus of the administration, is not even in the top ten.  We are in an abusive relationship with our own government.

Biden Energy Agency Quietly Starts Manipulating Weekly “On Highway Diesel Fuel Prices”, Looks Like an Effort to Block Higher Fuel Surcharges and Control Transportation Inflation

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 5, 2022 | Sundance

[Hat Tip Mailroom] This is a very interesting little bureaucratic energy issue with big downstream ramifications.

Almost every transportation and manufacturing company uses the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) “weekly publication of average diesel prices” in order to calculate shipping costs.  According to people in the industry, “this national average is what almost every trucking and logistics company bases their fuel surcharges on.”

However, on June 13th the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, stopped reporting the average weekly diesel price.  For almost a month companies have been using an outdated average price in order to calculate shipping costs and fuel surcharges. [See Screengrab]

Originally the EIA said, “We are implementing new methodology to estimate weekly on-highway diesel fuel prices. On June 13, we started conducting the On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price Survey using new statistical methodologies.” {LINK} However, the EIA has not updated anything since that announcement.

As a result, all of the transportation charges and fuel surcharges have been underestimated and priced for almost a full month.  The political motive for this move is transparent, it stops higher diesel prices from being passed along in the supply chain… which gives an artificial pause on inflation that comes as an outcome of higher diesel transportation costs (specifically trucking).  As explained to CTH:

“The department of energy has not published a national average of diesel fuel prices since the week of June 13. In all of their decades of doing this, they have never missed a week, until that week.  This EIA national average is what almost every trucking and logistics company bases their fuel surcharges on.

The DOE “changed their methodology” for calculating this and the week it was supposed to go live, their systems “crashed” (hacked?).

This is going to be a billing nightmare for trucking companies and shippers alike. The lobbying agencies in the transportation company ATA, TIA, TCA, NPTC, have all been very quiet about this. Bad stuff with lots of trickle-down implications.”

One way to tackle inflation is to take away accurate government statistics, that are used as accepted benchmarks by private industry, to calculate downstream prices.

Can you think of another reason for the political and ideological Dept of Energy to stop giving accurate estimates of current average diesel prices?

This sounds like a Dept of Energy version of “hide the ships“…

UPDATE: Suspect Captured, Highland Park Suspected Shooter Identified as 22-Year-Old, Robert E Crimo III, Suspect Vehicle 2010 Silver Honda Fit

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance 

UPDATE: Suspect Captured. The suspect in the Highland Park, Illinois, mass shooting has been identified as 22-year-old Robert “Bobby” E Crimo III.  An active manhunt is underway for his capture.  Crimo is reportedly driving a silver 2010 Honda Fit (pictured below).

Update – A person of interest has been identified in Monday’s deadly mass shooting at a Fourth of July parade outside Chicago, authorities said.

Officials said he was 22-year-old Robert “Bobby” E. Crimo III and is believed to be driving a 2010 silver Honda Fit.

The gunman opened fire with a “high-powered rifle” while standing on a roof just minutes after the parade began in the tony suburb of Highland Park, where six people were left dead and 24 others injured.

The killer “was very military-style, methodical in the way he was crouched and shooting,” an attendee told WGN TV. Investigators found a rifle at the scene that is believed to have been used in the massacre. (read more)

Looks like a typical Antifa type.

Opened fire in a predominately Jewish neighborhood.

Manhunt ongoing.

Check out his abandoned Twitter Before It’s Scrubbed:

Soundcloud Account [LINK]

Manhunt Underway as Suspect Shoots 16 People During July 4th Celebration in Highland Park, Illinois

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2022 | Sundance

During a July 4th celebration in Highland Park, a suburb north of Chicago, a gunman has opened fire shooting at least 16 people and reported killing 6 people.  A press conference is pending.  The shooting took place during a parade to celebrate the Fourth of July.  {Press Conference Livestream}  The shooter is NOT in custody.

Suspect description: White Male, 18 to 20 years of age, long black hair, small build, white or light blue t-shirt.   A manhunt is underway to capture the suspect. According to local officials the shooter was positioned on a rooftop when he opened fire.

Illinois (via NBC) – […] Sixteen people were shot and at least five people were killed Monday morning in a shooting at Highland Park’s Independence Day parade, officials confirmed, urging residents to continue to “shelter in place” as the gunman remains at large.

The shooting happened just after 10 a.m. in downtown Highland Park, according to reports. A large police presence from the state and neighboring suburban Chicago departments was seen along the parade route.

“Highland Park Police are responding to an active shooter incident that occurred in downtown Highland Park during the 4th of July parade,” the city of Highland Park wrote in a statement. “This is an active incident. All individuals are advised to shelter in place. Law enforcement agencies are searching for the suspect; evidence of a firearm has been recovered. Numerous law enforcement officers are responding and have secured a perimeter around downtown Highland Park. 16 people have been transferred to the hospital; 5 individuals are confirmed deceased.” (more)

Fourth of July Celebration Price Hike

Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The White House celebrated the measly 16-cent discount that Americans enjoyed last Fourth of July. As a reminder of how our leaders have catapulted our economy and opportunity to prosper, the average cost for Independence Day celebrations is now 17% higher than last year.

The White House actually marketed their $0.16 price decline in 2021. “Planning a cookout this year? Ketchup on the news. According to the Farm Bureau, the cost of a 4th of July BBQ is down from last year. It’s a fact you must-hear(d). Hot dog, the Biden economic plan is working. And that’s something we can all relish,” the White House tweeted last July. They actually thought Americans would believe that the slight price change was an indication of the Biden Administration serving the people.

The American Farm Bureau stated that the average Fourth of July traditional BBQ costs around $59.50 for a party of 10 in 2021. This year, the average party will cost consumers $69.68. That is well beneath normal estimates and does not include liquor costs.

Beef alone has risen 36% in the past year ($11.2 for 2 lbs), and even a hamburger bun package will cost an extra $1.93 this holiday. Nearly every item has risen in cost, and the farmers who provide for us are being paid less. “According to the Agriculture Department’s revised Food Dollar Series, farmers currently receive approximately 8% of every food marketing dollar,” AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan said. “The farmers’ share of the retail food dollar is as low as 2% to 4% for highly processed foods such as bread and cereal, and can be 35% or more for some fresh products.”

Here are some of the extra costs you can expect to see this Fourth:

Individual Prices, AFBF 2022 Summer Cookout

  • 2 pounds of ground beef, $11.12 (+36%)
  • 2 pounds of boneless, skinless chicken breasts, $8.99 (+33%)
  • 32 ounces of pork & beans, $2.53 (+33%)
  • 3 pounds of center cut pork chops, $15.26 (+31%)
  • 5 quarts of fresh-squeezed lemonade, $4.43 (+22%)
  • 5 pounds of homemade potato salad, $3.27 (+19%)
  • 8 hamburger buns, $1.93 (+16%)
  • Half-gallon of vanilla ice cream, $5.16 (+10%)
  • 13-ounce bag of chocolate chip cookies, $4.31 (+7%)
  • 2 pints of strawberries, $4.44 (-16%)
  • 1 pound of sliced cheese, $3.53 (-13%)
  • 16-ounce bag of potato chips, $4.71 (-4%)

White House Economic Council Chair Says Biden 85% Disapproval Irrelevant When Making Economic Transition to New and Permanent U.S. Energy Program

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 30, 2022 | Sundance

National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese essentially confirms what everyone suspected about Joe Biden’s polling, approval and disapproval.  It is quite obvious to everyone now that Biden is a disposable figurehead for the people inside the administration and government who are going full speed ahead with the Green New Deal via executive and regulatory action.

During a CNN segment Deese is challenged by the 85% disapproval and he ignores the opposition from the American people by saying the White House needs to “remind people as we go through this period” where energy costs are skyrocketing because climate change goals are unsustainable, during this economic “transition” they have made other progress.  WATCH: 

Joe Biden represents the once in a lifetime opportunity for every ideological leftist in government to carry out the most extreme energy policy without regard to political consequence.  Biden doesn’t even know what they are doing; that’s why there are conflicts between his statements about energy policy and the factual activity that is taking place around energy policy.  Biden couldn’t name the Interior Secretary if his life depended on it.

The extreme elements around Biden are taking advantage of his cognitive and intellectual deficit.  Obama told everyone Biden was an idiot, and now the Obama ideologues are using that idiot to fundamentally change America.   It is clear what they are doing; unfortunately, almost everyone in media and the leadership of both parties are pretending not to know what is happening.

But wait, it gets worse in the next soundbite from Deese .

When asked what the White House would say to families being crushed by high gas and energy prices, Deese says the radical left must “stand firm” with the extreme energy policy because this is the future of the “liberal world order”.  WATCH:


Atlanta Fed Revises Second Quarter GDP Estimate to Negative 1 Percent

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data. 

Sanity Prevails, Supreme Court Strikes Down EPA Cap and Trade Scheme for Power Plants

Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

“A decision of such magnitude and consequence rests with Congress itself, or an agency acting pursuant to a clear delegation from that representative body,” he added.

Roberts also noted that the EPA claimed to have the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions only after Congress declined to expand that authority through legislation.

“At bottom, the Clean Power Plan essentially adopted a cap-and-trade scheme, or set of state cap-and-trade schemes, for carbon,” the chief justice wrote. ” … Congress, however,  has consistently rejected proposals to amend the Clean Air Act to create such a program. It has also declined to enact similar measures, such as a carbon tax … Given these circumstances, our precedent counsels skepticism toward EPA’s claim …” (read more)

WHY Things Happen

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, do you think it was destiny that you were somehow intended to discover the hidden order behind the Business Cycle?


QUESTION #2: Martin,

I have a friend who has been working on getting Roe v. Wade overturned.  In a groups chat, my daughter mentioned to him how this was going to go into the history books and their generation will be telling our children about it.

It then occurred to me that this could go down in the history books in ways that most do not yet perceive. If your models are correct, this may well be one of the “Ft. Sumpter events” that ultimately lead to a regional breakup of the U.S. by 2032.

Out of curiosity, when did your models first forecast the 2032 breakup?

ANSWER: This is all part of the decline and fall of the United States. There is no constitutional right to abortion any more than there is a constitutional right that the government must provide you with medicare. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. Read the language of the 5th Amendment — “No person shall be held…” It is a restraint upon government; it is NOT a positive list of rights. Read the text! It is always in the tone that the government shall not do whatever. They held that implicit in the 5th Amendment, there was a right to privacy. That was in the context of Griswold v Connecticut having to do with condoms. That was fashioned into Roe v Wade, and it was crafted to REDUCE the population of minorities. It was a racist decision. Justice Ginsberg made that clear, and she stood for women’s rights.

People then tried to force the government to pay for abortions. That is when HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980) was decided to point out that the Constitution is NEGATIVE, and thus no right compels the government to pay for abortion. From a legal perspective, there is NO right to abortion any more than there is a right that the government must pay for your healthcare, divorce, or any social benefits. This is the problem of SOCIALISM and that politicians have misrepresented the Constitution to win office on a pure lie.

The rhetoric that a woman’s life cannot be saved in a dangerous birth is absurd. The law in question limited the abortion right to within the first 15 weeks. The facts do not support this rhetoric. There is just this toxic absurd claim to some constitutional right that never existed. It will further divide the states, and I would welcome the separation of the United States. It is absurd that the assumed power of Washington can force social laws upon the whole, as it merely invites the destruction of the United States. Similarly, such measures destroyed Rome.

As Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:” “The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father [TRUMP] always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. 

As much as things change – they always remain the same. The name just changes.

I first published that forecast of 2032 back in 1979. That is when I published my findings in what I named the “WHY Report.” I don’t have a single copy of that report as it was lost in the allies of time. I did expand it and republished it again in 1981 after it successfully picked the 1981 high in interest rates. The second edition was published once more in July 1983. I have at least one copy of that one. I hear they all go for well over $1,000 these days; I should probably buy the first two.

I found it very interesting that perhaps I was destined to discover this model after the fact that it was accurate to a day because it was based upon pi – 8.6 years = 3,145 days. Note that the office address was Suite 314. The house I grew up in was 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey.

The title of that report was my number one question to my parents. I was always curious and asked “why” about everything. My mother would sometimes just respond, “BECAUSE!” So I named the report after my constant question. I suppose I could have been a real pain back then. If it was something I was interested in, I dove in over my head. If it was a boring subject, I really did not pay attention.

I began to use it myself in 1976. I observed it beginning in 1966. I had watched the boom-bust move from market to market — stocks, collectibles, real estate, and interest rates. Each time I had thought the bust was unique to that one market, I began to see that there was no exception. Everything rallied with an emotional peak, and then the crash would come when you could not sell what everyone wanted just months before.

I had gotten divorced but kept my kids. I was living at 16 Palmetto Ave, Marlton, New Jersey, but traveling 1 hour to Princeton every day. So I put my house up for sale, and for months nobody even came to look. Then a couple came. I think he owned some stores like a 7/11, but I don’t recall. He walked in and said he would buy it, but I had to be out in 30 days because his wife was very pregnant. I said, “No problem.” I took my two kids, and we moved into a hotel in Princeton as I began my search for a new home.

I then bought a house at 17 Abey Drive in Pennington, New Jersey, where I raised my kids. It was pointed out to me that 16 was 2x 8 and 17.2 is 2 x 8.6. So I suppose I have always lived with addressed that were linked to pi.

I do not know if it was destiny. I understand many people believe we are here for some purpose. Even in Asia, the idea of reincarnation in Hinduism is perhaps as old as Hinduism itself. General Patton had told my father that he was reincarnated and sent back to win the war. He said he was a General many times in history and said he would describe how they fought battles even under Alexander the Great. I do not have any recollection of past lives, so I cannot answer that question of destiny. Perhaps it is true or just a coincidence. Who knows.