Fourth of July Celebration Price Hike

Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The White House celebrated the measly 16-cent discount that Americans enjoyed last Fourth of July. As a reminder of how our leaders have catapulted our economy and opportunity to prosper, the average cost for Independence Day celebrations is now 17% higher than last year.

The White House actually marketed their $0.16 price decline in 2021. “Planning a cookout this year? Ketchup on the news. According to the Farm Bureau, the cost of a 4th of July BBQ is down from last year. It’s a fact you must-hear(d). Hot dog, the Biden economic plan is working. And that’s something we can all relish,” the White House tweeted last July. They actually thought Americans would believe that the slight price change was an indication of the Biden Administration serving the people.

The American Farm Bureau stated that the average Fourth of July traditional BBQ costs around $59.50 for a party of 10 in 2021. This year, the average party will cost consumers $69.68. That is well beneath normal estimates and does not include liquor costs.

Beef alone has risen 36% in the past year ($11.2 for 2 lbs), and even a hamburger bun package will cost an extra $1.93 this holiday. Nearly every item has risen in cost, and the farmers who provide for us are being paid less. “According to the Agriculture Department’s revised Food Dollar Series, farmers currently receive approximately 8% of every food marketing dollar,” AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan said. “The farmers’ share of the retail food dollar is as low as 2% to 4% for highly processed foods such as bread and cereal, and can be 35% or more for some fresh products.”

Here are some of the extra costs you can expect to see this Fourth:

Individual Prices, AFBF 2022 Summer Cookout

  • 2 pounds of ground beef, $11.12 (+36%)
  • 2 pounds of boneless, skinless chicken breasts, $8.99 (+33%)
  • 32 ounces of pork & beans, $2.53 (+33%)
  • 3 pounds of center cut pork chops, $15.26 (+31%)
  • 5 quarts of fresh-squeezed lemonade, $4.43 (+22%)
  • 5 pounds of homemade potato salad, $3.27 (+19%)
  • 8 hamburger buns, $1.93 (+16%)
  • Half-gallon of vanilla ice cream, $5.16 (+10%)
  • 13-ounce bag of chocolate chip cookies, $4.31 (+7%)
  • 2 pints of strawberries, $4.44 (-16%)
  • 1 pound of sliced cheese, $3.53 (-13%)
  • 16-ounce bag of potato chips, $4.71 (-4%)

White House Economic Council Chair Says Biden 85% Disapproval Irrelevant When Making Economic Transition to New and Permanent U.S. Energy Program

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 30, 2022 | Sundance

National Economic Council Chairman Brian Deese essentially confirms what everyone suspected about Joe Biden’s polling, approval and disapproval.  It is quite obvious to everyone now that Biden is a disposable figurehead for the people inside the administration and government who are going full speed ahead with the Green New Deal via executive and regulatory action.

During a CNN segment Deese is challenged by the 85% disapproval and he ignores the opposition from the American people by saying the White House needs to “remind people as we go through this period” where energy costs are skyrocketing because climate change goals are unsustainable, during this economic “transition” they have made other progress.  WATCH: 

Joe Biden represents the once in a lifetime opportunity for every ideological leftist in government to carry out the most extreme energy policy without regard to political consequence.  Biden doesn’t even know what they are doing; that’s why there are conflicts between his statements about energy policy and the factual activity that is taking place around energy policy.  Biden couldn’t name the Interior Secretary if his life depended on it.

The extreme elements around Biden are taking advantage of his cognitive and intellectual deficit.  Obama told everyone Biden was an idiot, and now the Obama ideologues are using that idiot to fundamentally change America.   It is clear what they are doing; unfortunately, almost everyone in media and the leadership of both parties are pretending not to know what is happening.

But wait, it gets worse in the next soundbite from Deese .

When asked what the White House would say to families being crushed by high gas and energy prices, Deese says the radical left must “stand firm” with the extreme energy policy because this is the future of the “liberal world order”.  WATCH:


Atlanta Fed Revises Second Quarter GDP Estimate to Negative 1 Percent

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

We can see no political scenario where the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will report a negative second quarter GDP number, despite the reality of a contracted economy.

A negative second quarter GDP would mean the Joe Biden economic policies have resulted in a recession.   Yes, the economy is contracting; and yes, the economy is in an actual recession.  However, it would be too politically damaging for the federal bureaucrats to quantify it accurately.

That being said, the Atlanta Fed is now calculating a negative 1% second quarter GDP result [DATA HERE]:

(Fed Reserve) – The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively. (link)

CTH predicts the BEA is likely to generate a statistical report somewhere in the +0.5% range. Just enough positive GDP to avoid the literal definition of a recession.  The BEA report will be issued at the end of July and if they follow recent patterns, they will likely underestimate the inflation rate as well as under-calculate the import data. 

Sanity Prevails, Supreme Court Strikes Down EPA Cap and Trade Scheme for Power Plants

Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 30, 2022 | Sundance 

The Environmental Protect Agency (EPA) was attempting to restrict the energy production from coal-based power plants through a regulatory cap-and-trade scheme intended to limit the emissions from electricity plants. However, by a 6-3 vote the Supreme Court said today the Clean Air Act does not give the EPA broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. [pdf Ruling Here] The regulation -if any- must come from congress, not regulatory fiat from an executive agency.

New York Post – The Supreme Court rolled back the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants Thursday, dealing a massive blow to the Biden administration’s plans to fight climate change.

The 6-3 decision overturned a lower court ruling that gave the federal agency virtually unlimited regulatory powers through the Clean Air Act. […] Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts agreed with the states that “it is not plausible that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt on its own such a regulatory scheme.”

“A decision of such magnitude and consequence rests with Congress itself, or an agency acting pursuant to a clear delegation from that representative body,” he added.

Roberts also noted that the EPA claimed to have the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions only after Congress declined to expand that authority through legislation.

“At bottom, the Clean Power Plan essentially adopted a cap-and-trade scheme, or set of state cap-and-trade schemes, for carbon,” the chief justice wrote. ” … Congress, however,  has consistently rejected proposals to amend the Clean Air Act to create such a program. It has also declined to enact similar measures, such as a carbon tax … Given these circumstances, our precedent counsels skepticism toward EPA’s claim …” (read more)

WHY Things Happen

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, do you think it was destiny that you were somehow intended to discover the hidden order behind the Business Cycle?


QUESTION #2: Martin,

I have a friend who has been working on getting Roe v. Wade overturned.  In a groups chat, my daughter mentioned to him how this was going to go into the history books and their generation will be telling our children about it.

It then occurred to me that this could go down in the history books in ways that most do not yet perceive. If your models are correct, this may well be one of the “Ft. Sumpter events” that ultimately lead to a regional breakup of the U.S. by 2032.

Out of curiosity, when did your models first forecast the 2032 breakup?

ANSWER: This is all part of the decline and fall of the United States. There is no constitutional right to abortion any more than there is a constitutional right that the government must provide you with medicare. The Constitution is NEGATIVE, not positive. Read the language of the 5th Amendment — “No person shall be held…” It is a restraint upon government; it is NOT a positive list of rights. Read the text! It is always in the tone that the government shall not do whatever. They held that implicit in the 5th Amendment, there was a right to privacy. That was in the context of Griswold v Connecticut having to do with condoms. That was fashioned into Roe v Wade, and it was crafted to REDUCE the population of minorities. It was a racist decision. Justice Ginsberg made that clear, and she stood for women’s rights.

People then tried to force the government to pay for abortions. That is when HARRIS v. McRAE, 448 U.S. 297 (1980) was decided to point out that the Constitution is NEGATIVE, and thus no right compels the government to pay for abortion. From a legal perspective, there is NO right to abortion any more than there is a right that the government must pay for your healthcare, divorce, or any social benefits. This is the problem of SOCIALISM and that politicians have misrepresented the Constitution to win office on a pure lie.

The rhetoric that a woman’s life cannot be saved in a dangerous birth is absurd. The law in question limited the abortion right to within the first 15 weeks. The facts do not support this rhetoric. There is just this toxic absurd claim to some constitutional right that never existed. It will further divide the states, and I would welcome the separation of the United States. It is absurd that the assumed power of Washington can force social laws upon the whole, as it merely invites the destruction of the United States. Similarly, such measures destroyed Rome.

As Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:” “The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father [TRUMP] always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. 

As much as things change – they always remain the same. The name just changes.

I first published that forecast of 2032 back in 1979. That is when I published my findings in what I named the “WHY Report.” I don’t have a single copy of that report as it was lost in the allies of time. I did expand it and republished it again in 1981 after it successfully picked the 1981 high in interest rates. The second edition was published once more in July 1983. I have at least one copy of that one. I hear they all go for well over $1,000 these days; I should probably buy the first two.

I found it very interesting that perhaps I was destined to discover this model after the fact that it was accurate to a day because it was based upon pi – 8.6 years = 3,145 days. Note that the office address was Suite 314. The house I grew up in was 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, New Jersey.

The title of that report was my number one question to my parents. I was always curious and asked “why” about everything. My mother would sometimes just respond, “BECAUSE!” So I named the report after my constant question. I suppose I could have been a real pain back then. If it was something I was interested in, I dove in over my head. If it was a boring subject, I really did not pay attention.

I began to use it myself in 1976. I observed it beginning in 1966. I had watched the boom-bust move from market to market — stocks, collectibles, real estate, and interest rates. Each time I had thought the bust was unique to that one market, I began to see that there was no exception. Everything rallied with an emotional peak, and then the crash would come when you could not sell what everyone wanted just months before.

I had gotten divorced but kept my kids. I was living at 16 Palmetto Ave, Marlton, New Jersey, but traveling 1 hour to Princeton every day. So I put my house up for sale, and for months nobody even came to look. Then a couple came. I think he owned some stores like a 7/11, but I don’t recall. He walked in and said he would buy it, but I had to be out in 30 days because his wife was very pregnant. I said, “No problem.” I took my two kids, and we moved into a hotel in Princeton as I began my search for a new home.

I then bought a house at 17 Abey Drive in Pennington, New Jersey, where I raised my kids. It was pointed out to me that 16 was 2x 8 and 17.2 is 2 x 8.6. So I suppose I have always lived with addressed that were linked to pi.

I do not know if it was destiny. I understand many people believe we are here for some purpose. Even in Asia, the idea of reincarnation in Hinduism is perhaps as old as Hinduism itself. General Patton had told my father that he was reincarnated and sent back to win the war. He said he was a General many times in history and said he would describe how they fought battles even under Alexander the Great. I do not have any recollection of past lives, so I cannot answer that question of destiny. Perhaps it is true or just a coincidence. Who knows.

And they are Off – the ’22 Mid-Terms

Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Jun 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Since we no longer know the definition of a woman, then why are the women coming out to protest against overruling Roe v Wade? This is obviously no longer a woman’s right. I guess under this slogan, does that mean Hillary will have to vote Republican? To think, Jeffrey Epstein was killed before he could have argued to prove they were a woman. This just gets crazier by the day.

Horror in San Antonio, Texas, At Least 42 People Found Dead Inside Abandoned Semi Trailer During Human Smuggling Operation

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

This is an almost unimaginable horror in San Antonio, Texas.  This is also the outcome of the Biden administration and Democrats open border policy that fuels the desperate efforts of illegal aliens and predatory human smugglers.

(KSAT News) – San Antonio – At least 42 people were found dead inside a tractor-trailer on the Southwest Side, and 16 others were taken to area hospitals in varying conditions, according to multiple SAPD sources.

Several San Antonio police vehicles, as well as fire trucks and ambulances, are covering a portion of Quintana Road on the Southwest Side. Crews are surrounding an 18-wheeler near the 9600 block of Quintana Road next to railroad tracks. (READ MORE)

A Combative Interview Between Bret Baier and Arizona Governor Candidate Kari Lake, Video

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Fox News propagandist Bret Baier continues his devolution into the external appearance of a human Cabbage Patch doll, while intellectually his leftist DNA has won the battle for his frontal cortex.  After delivering a love-fest interview for establishment GOP candidate Karrin Taylor Robinson last week, Baier sharpened the knives for MAGA candidate Kari Lake.

Within the interview [Direct Rumble Link Here} Brett Baier accused Kari Lake of throwing transgender parties at her home and participating in drag queen sex shows.  Mrs. Lake was furious at the outlandish claims by Fox News, and then things got ugly.   WATCH:

Fox News is well positioned to hire Adam Kinzinger as a host next to Trey Gowdy. The Arizona state Primary Election will be held on Tuesday, August 2, 2022.

Daughter of Mayra Flores Stands Her Ground After Shove from Nancy Pelosi

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Nancy Pelosi shoved the daughter of newly elected Republican Latina Mayra Flores during the swearing in ceremony.  However, the undeterred young lady stood her ground and smiled like a princess.

Pelosi, a typical democrat, doesn’t like brown people getting out of place. {Direct Rumble LinkWATCH:

Representative Mayra Flores responded to the video on Twitter: “I am so proud of my strong, beautiful daughter for not allowing this to faze her. She continued to smile and pose for the picture like a Queen,” the congresswoman’s official campaign account tweeted. “No child should be pushed to the side for a photo op. PERIOD!!

French President Macron Wants Sanctioned Oil from Iran and Venezuela to Replace Russian Oil, Willfully Blind Joe Biden Likely to Agree

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

It is quite remarkable to consider that almost 100% of these global issues could immediately disappear if the far-left ideologues behind Joe Biden would just unleash the American energy sector.  Alas, the seemingly religious cult of climate ideology will not allow it…. therefore we get these bizarre outcomes.

The U.S. has economic sanctions against oil exports from Iran, Venezuela and now Russia.  The EU is economically collapsing under their inability to power their economies without energy products, a specific outcome of the latest NATO and EU sanctions against Russia.

The green energy programs in the EU cannot sustain the needs of the population.  As a result, German Chancellor Olaf Schultz and French President Emmanuel Macron are asking Joe Biden to lift sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and let Iranian and Venezuelan oil replace the missing Russian oil.  Again, none of this would be needed if the U.S. just developed more oil and gas domestically; but Biden won’t change policy.

(Reuters) – The international community should explore all options to alleviate a Russian squeeze of energy supplies that has spiked prices, including talks with producing nations like Iran and Venezuela, a French presidency official said on Monday.

Venezuela has been under U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, and could reroute crude if those restrictions were lifted.  Indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive a nuclear deal that could see sanctions on Tehran lifted and its oil exports resume have been on hold since March, but are due to resume in Doha soon.

“There are resources elsewhere that need to be explored,” a French official said on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Germany, when asked about how to alleviate high oil prices.

The outstanding issue between Iran and the United States was no longer linked to the nuclear dossier but to U.S. terrorism sanctions, he said.

“So there is a knot that needs to be untied if applicable… to get Iranian oil back on the market,” the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We have Venezuelan oil that also needs to come back to the market.”

A second official said all options need to be explored given the stakes, including those involving Iran and Venezuela.

The first official called for a temporary increase in production from oil-producing nations, and said there would be an effort to try and convince them to do so.

[…] French President Emmanuel Macron was caught by Reuters TV rushing to tell Biden that he had spoken to United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), who had told him that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could barely increase oil production. (read more)

Apparently, when you overlay the geopolitical western chase for climate change ideology, some sanctions become less important than others.

Saudi Arabia cannot replace Russian, American, Iranian and Venezuelan oil for the western governments; it would simply be too high of a production demand for Saudi Arabia to accomplish.   The western industrialized nations know this reality, although they keep pretending publicly that some alternative solution is possible, and they are now flummoxed about how to remove former ideological sanctions against Iran and Venezuela without exposing the insanity of their geopolitics.

All of this is only happening because the western alliance is chasing the pipe dream theory behind “Build Back Better.”   The supposed “green energy” programs can never compensate for the efficient use of oil and gas, yet they must pretend not to admit this reality in order to sustain the decades of lies behind their climate change claims.

It’s creating a hot mess of hypocrisy that one would hope the world will eventually notice.