BEA Estimates Quarter 2 GDP Growth 4.1%, Q1 Revised Upward 2.2% – Growth in Exports, U.S. Investment…


MAGAnomics

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the second quarter estimate in GDP growth at 4.1%, the highest rate of growth since 2014.  Here’s the non-spin review along with an embed copy of the actual report [full pdf below] to include all tables:

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment; the net result of exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Along with the first estimate of Q2 GDP Growth at 4.1% (exceptionally strong), the BEA increased the Q1 growth rate to 2.2% (previously 2%).

Growth in U.S. exported goods was massive at 13.3% [Table 1, line 17] That is HUGE.
Growth in U.S. imported goods was very small at 1.0% [Table 1, Line 20] That is great.

The combination of massive increases in exports, and minimal growth in imports, led to a net increase in overall GDP from exports of 1.06%. [Table 2, line 45] Let that sink in.

WE DID NOT DEDUCT from GDP growth due to the net result of imports/exports. We actually exported more goods than we imported.

Additionally, financial media are trying to downplay the exceptional results by saying business bought material in advance of tariffs. This is FALSE. This is not even remotely true.

Net domestic inventories DROPPED by $6 billion. [Page 22, Table 3a, Line 40] There was no inventory buildup. Exactly the opposite is true. Inventories are lower/depleted…. this means future growth is forecast; ie. replenishment needed.

Current-dollar GDP increased 7.4 percent, or $361.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.4 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $209.2 billion (table 1 and table 3A).

This means our overall U.S. economy is now EXCEEDING $20 TRILLION !!

Cue the Magic Wand !!

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/384838487/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-IFpIQXUY4qnUPax9zamN

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North Korea Repatriates Remains of Missing Service Members…


A U.S. military transport plane flies to an airfield in North Korea’s northeastern city of Wonsan to bring the remains to Osan air base in South Korea. Soldiers in dress uniforms with white gloves were seen slowly carry 55 small cases covered with the blue-and-white United Nations insignia, placing them one by one into silver vans waiting on the tarmac in Osan:

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[White House] At their historic meeting in Singapore, President Donald J. Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un took a bold first step to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, transform relations between the United States and North Korea, and establish enduring peace. Today, the Chairman is fulfilling part of the commitment he made to the President to return our fallen American service members. We are encouraged by North Koreas actions and the momentum for positive change.

A U.S. Air Force C-17 aircraft containing remains of fallen service members has departed Wonsan, North Korea. It is accompanied by service members from United Nations Command Korea and technical experts from the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency. The C-17 is transferring the remains to Osan Air Base, where a formal repatriation ceremony will be held on August 1.

The United States owes a profound debt of gratitude to those American service members who gave their lives in service to their country and we are working diligently to bring them home. It is a solemn obligation of the United States Government to ensure that the remains are handled with dignity and properly accounted for so their families receive them in an honorable manner.

Todays actions represent a significant first step to recommence the repatriation of remains from North Korea and to resume field operations in North Korea to search for the estimated 5,300 Americans who have not yet returned home.  (WH Link)

Impromptu Presser With Wilbur Ross Aboard Air Force One…


No reports from the press pool on this, and there is some important granular information, so here’s the transcript:

[Transcript] Aboard Air Force One – En Route Dubuque, Iowa – 11:27 A.M. EDT

GIDLEY: I know we’re about to land. We wanted to bring Secretary Ross back to have conversation about just what happened yesterday with the agreement with the European Union and steps moving forward, and what the President was able to do in that agreement.

So with that, I’ll turn it over to Secretary Ross, and he’ll take questions after. And if we could, let’s keep it to topic.

SECRETARY ROSS: Okay, thank you very much. I think you’ve heard the general outline of what was done yesterday, namely a commitment to move toward three zeros: zero tariffs, zero non-tariff trade barriers, and zero subsidies.

Basically, the idea that — is to level the playing field. Europe right now has much higher tariffs and much higher trade barriers than we do. Their trade barriers are both in the form of regulations that are not science-based, and standards that also are not science-based. So they have the practical net effect of keeping products out, even if they had no tariff at all.

The tariff barriers are considerable. On autos, they have 10 percent. We have two and a quarter percent. Obviously, that’s a very disjointed situation.

So going forward, the direction is pushing towards zero. That’s really where the President’s trade policies have always been heading. But to get there, we had to take a route of trying to make it more painful for the other parties to continue bad practices than to drop them. And that’s why he put up tariffs to put pressure on. And it seems to be starting to work.

I think if we hadn’t done the steel and aluminum tariffs, and if we hadn’t had the threat of automotive tariffs, we never would have gotten to the point where we are now. Ever since the President came into office, he’s told the EU he was willing to negotiate. It’s only now that they’ve been willing to come around.

So I think the first thing is, this is a real vindication that the President’s trade policy is starting to work. The more substantive thing is it’s the right direction. Because if we can roll out that whole formula to the rest of the world, our trade deficit will go down. We believe that American companies, and especially American farmers, can compete anywhere if they have a level playing field.

So I think it’s a very good move not just for the U.S. and not just for the EU, but for the whole global trading system.

♦ Q So what does this mean for the prospect of auto tariffs?

SECRETARY ROSS: Well, in terms of auto tariffs, we’ve been directed by the President to continue the investigation, get our material together, but not actually implement anything pending the outcome of the negotiations.

So the work is continuing. Probably sometime in the month of August we’ll be willing to render a report. It may not be necessary, or it may be necessary. We will see. But the work is continuing. Similarly, the steel and aluminum tariffs stay in place as we sit here.

♦ Q Secretary Ross, how long will the negotiation process, do you believe, take with the European Union?

SECRETARY ROSS: Well, that’s very hard to judge. Normally, trade discussions take multiple years. But that’s because they generally have one meeting and then pause for a month, have another meeting. So we’re going to try to do it much faster, just as NAFTA has been a much faster process than a normal trade discussion.

The other thing that should accelerate it: We’ve already set the guiding principles — the three zeros, getting toward the three zeros. Normally, it would take a long time to agree just what are the objectives of the negotiations.

Here, we have the big objectives set, so it’s more a question, how do you implement them? How do you achieve the goals to which both parties agree?

♦ Q Mr. Secretary, what do you say to the President’s supporters? Like, we’re going right now to the state of Illinois where the President is going to be celebrating this steel company’s expansion, but this is also a state –- we’re not far away from there — the biggest manufacturer of nails has been laying off people, they say, because of the President’s policies. What do you say to those people? Should they just suffer in the meantime?

SECRETARY ROSS: Well, if you look at the actual statistics, a lot more jobs are being created than destroyed. Look at the weekly unemployment figures, look at the weekly hirings, look at the weekly job openings.

There are some cases where people have been laid off. It’s not always because of tariffs. A lot of companies have been using the excuse, “Oh, the reason my earnings weren’t good is that there were the tariffs.” In many cases, that’s not the main reason. The main reason is there was something else going on in their overall picture.

But the actual numbers, week after week, do not show that employment is being hurt. To the contrary, employment is booming. The whole reason that we’ve initiated these new moves for workforce development, for apprenticeships, for learn-to-earn, is we now have fewer unemployment — no more unemployed people than the amount of job openings. That’s the first time in American history that we’ve had that.

So anybody who thinks that the steel and aluminum tariffs have been — this must be some unemployed worker shaking the plane — (laughs) — anyhow, anybody who thinks that it has hurt employment simply doesn’t read the weekly statistics. And they’re also not reading the — we’ll have very good numbers for the June period. Very good economic numbers.

GIDLEY: Let’s do a couple more.

♦ Q Why abandon T-TIP? If the idea is to have a trade deal with Europe, why walk away from T-TIP, which was being negotiated?

SECRETARY ROSS: Sorry, couldn’t hear.

GIDLEY: Why walk away from T-TIP, he said.

SECRETARY ROSS: Well, T-TIP, was going no place. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans had appetite for it. Remember — I’m sorry, about TPP you’re saying?

Q (Inaudible.)

SECRETARY ROSS: Oh — oh, T-TIP.

Q Yeah.

SECRETARY ROSS: Okay. Well, we haven’t walked away from T-TIP. We deliberately did not cancel the T-TIP negotiations when President Trump was elected. We did cancel TPP, and that was meant to be a deliberate signal to the European Union that we wanted to negotiate with them.

♦ Q Mr. Secretary, specifically just to clarify on the auto tariffs, when you say that they’re going to be held off on, are you just talking about the EU, or all of the auto tariffs will be in a holding pattern until the negotiations take place?

SECRETARY ROSS: Well, what we’ve agreed is not — basically not to impose automotive tariffs while the negotiations are underway. We have continued the steel and aluminum tariffs, and so there’s really no change in that situation. We weren’t ready to come to a conclusion on automotive anyway. It would be another month or so.

♦ Q Is it just the EU or other countries as well? Is the auto delay only for the EU, or also other countries?

SECRETARY ROSS: The whole work on the auto tariffs will continue. Depending on where we are with the EU, it might have an impact in what are the eventual conclusion. But we don’t have conclusions yet. We’re still in the process of the investigation.

GIDLEY: Thanks, everybody. I’ll come back in a second. I’m going to walk him out. We’re about to land. We might get it on the next leg.

END  – 11:36 A.M. EDT