Tag Archives: Rituals

Feb 13 2019

Thailand and the Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Southeast Asia

Re-Posted Feb 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Marty,

As with so many others, I am very appreciative of your writing and am seeing your predictions come true as chaos piles up. Most recently, here in Thailand! The sister of the king, Princess Ubolrat (sp?) announced she would contest the upcoming election as prime minister. This is not only unprecedented in Thailand but perhaps anywhere in the world. In Thailand, the monarchy is treated with reverence and there are very strict laws about criticizing the monarchy, using their names or images for commercial or political purposes. And up until now, the monarchy has been strictly non-political. But there is a new regime now…indeed the king’s coronation is due to take place less than two months after the election on March 24 (coronation May 4).

The sister claims she is no longer a royal as she was stripped of her titles by her father, the former king (who died two years ago) when she married an American, but after 20+ years she divorced her husband and came back from America where she had been living to Thailand where she resumed royal duties. Thai people are so respectful/afraid of the monarchy that the election result is now considered to be a done deal as no one will dare to contest in any meaningful way. The small party she will lead is backed by the former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who has been living in exile for many years after being dumped from power in a coup. He is the darling of the impoverished rural masses while the incumbent Prime Minister General Prayut, who deposed Thaksin’s sister Yinglak as prime minister in a second coup, has the support of the business elite. Thailand up to now has been a very traditional society resting on three solid foundations…the nation, religion, and monarchy. This, despite frequent coups and regular rewriting of constitutions, has given it stability. I wonder if one of these legs is about to be kicked away…with a member of the monarchy descending down to the political fray. Now we await the battle between the general and the princess….most bets, of course, are on the princess!

The king has now criticized the actions of his sister “inappropriate”. Since the king must approve the prime minister, it seems that her name can’t go forward. So the traditions still hold after all in Thailand.

Thank you

 

ANNONYMOUS

REPLY: I love Thailand. It is one of the real gems in the world. Despite all the political turmoil, the structure keeps going. To a large extent,  this demonstrates that the economy is self-sustaining and really does not require government in any country. People will interact with or without the presence of governments. Nevertheless, the beginning of the Chakri dynasty under King Rama I took place in 1782 in Thailand, which rules to this day. The country was then known as Siam and the new capital of Bangkok was found. It was during the reign of King Mongkut (Rama IV) (1804-1868), who embraced Western innovations and initiated Thailand’s modernization.

When we look at the broader picture, the 224-year cycle of political change came into play in Thailand as well and was due in 2006. Indeed, it was during April-May 2006, when a snap election was called by the PM amid mass rallies against him that were boycotted by the opposition and subsequently annulled. This resulted in a political vacuum. The PM took a seven-week break from politics. Then in August 2006, the Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra accused several army officers of plotting to kill him after police found a car containing bomb-making materials near his house. Then on September 19, 2006, military leaders staged a bloodless coup while Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was at the UN General Assembly. Retired General Surayud Chulanont was appointed as interim prime minister during October 2006. Finally, in January 2007 martial law was lifted in more than half of the country. Therefore, 2006 was a major turning point in Thailand.

Ever since 2006, we have witnessed rising political change. Opposition protesters occupied Bangkok’s main government complex in 2008, and began a mass anti-government protest calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej. Eventually, Sundaravej was forced out of office by December that year. In March-May 2010, tens of thousands of Thaksin supporters emerged in their trademark red shirts. The major political change seems to be on schedule for 2032 into 2048.

Feb 4 2019

Superbowl LIII – A Historic Low Point & Low Viewership?


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events

Re-Posted Feb 3, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The Patriots beat the Rams but only a score of 13-3. Superbowl LIII (53) at half-time was the second lowest scoring game in history. The first half of Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Rams ended in the second lowest scoring first half in a Super Bowl at 3–0, New England. It was 44 years ago when the Steelers led the Vikings 2–0 at half time in Super Bowl IX back in 1975. About 103.4 million people watched Superbowl LII last year, which was the smallest audience for television’s biggest yearly event since 2009. Note the year – 2009. Interestingly enough, when the economy turns down, so do sports. The all-time record high for viewership was 114.4 million for the Patriots-Seahawks game back in 2015, peaking with the Economic Confidence Model. It is curious that in good-times, when everyone is fat and happy, we do not see wars and we see sports do well. The sharp decline post-2015 seems to be correlating with the economy. True, the US economy has been holding up the world. But its growth rates has been steadily declining.

Last year’s Super Bowl (LII) came down to the wire, with Nick Foles leading the Philadelphia Eagles to a 41-33 victory over the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots. That stunning victory for Philadelphia over the favorite, was down significantly in viewership. Last year, I noted that just looking at the risk analysis, it appeared that Tom Brady, New England’s quarterback, had peaked. He entered the NFL in 2000 and he is one of only two players to win five Super Bowls (the other being defensive player Charles Haley) and the only player to win them all playing for one team. Last year he lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cyclically reviewing the prospects, Tom Brady appeared to have peaked with his win in 2017 which was 17 years (2 * 8.6) from the beginning of his career. Here we have in Superbowl LIII, certainly a very low scoring game.

How do we measure this peak? Points, wins, or viewership?

From a point perspective, scoring 13 points compared to last year’s 33 points for Brady was a significant decline. So was this just a reaction rally within a broader declining trend? In case you were wondering, six points is the fewest scored through the first three quarters in Super Bowl history. When we get the final viewership numbers, I suspect we will see the bear market decline still in motion. Then there are the pundits that say the Patriots’ Super Bowl win warns of a bear market for the stock market. That is one of the popular myths as is the rise and fall of women’s skirts – very short like the Roaring ’20s = bull market; down to the ankles in the ’30s was the sign of depression.

Jan 29 2019

Our Traditions are Often those of the Roman Empire


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History

Re-Posted Jan 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Just curious. Did the Romans ever celebrate their founding of Rome like we celebrate the fourth of July?

ZT

ANSWER: Oh yes. We seem to have adopted whatever they did as traditions as well. For example, there are nuns in the Catholic Church who take vows of chastity and are in theory married to God. The Romans had the very same tradition known as Vestal Virgins. They kept the eternal flame burning, which we see at John F. Kennedy’s grave as well, symbolizing his memory will live on.

Pictured above is a silver Antoninianus issued during 248 AD by the then Emperor Philip I(244-249 AD) celebrating the 1,000th year anniversary of the founding of Rome.

We are still awaiting the final contract with the hotel in Rome for this year’s Spring WEC. Those attending will receive a guide to Rome where you can even find the original doors to the Roman Senate commission by Julius Caesar that is rarely mentioned in any guidebook.

Of course, I have probably been to Rome more than 100 times and I have still not visited everything. It really is the Eternal City. For the religious tourist, there is even the Scala Sancta, or Holy Stairs, that are a set of 28 white marble steps which were the steps leading up to the praetorium of Pontius Pilate in Jerusalem on where Jesus Christ walked on his way to trial. The stairs reputedly were brought to Rome by St. Helena, Constantine’s mother, during the fourth century