Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello Martin and Team,
My question is related to a gentleman I watched on Greg Hunters Watchdog News that Martin goes on with from time to time. Greg interviewed —- —–. The discussion was around chemtrails and the gov’t messing with the rain patterns, also lake Mead and the Las Vegas drain plug which I do know is real. The main question is there a real likely hood of the S.W. United States to experience very serious drought in short order? I live in Phoenix and this interview was scary and I would be curious to know (along with millions of others) if Dane’s information is credible and if folks living in the S.W. US should really consider trying to move to another part of the country. I wondered if Socrates would be able to give us any insight into what was discussed in the interview.
Thank you so much for your efforts, I have been following Martin since 2008 and I have yet to see Socrates be wrong. We need your efforts more than ever with the complete disaster of the world we are living in.
ANSWER: I have no data on the chemtrail issue. My opinion would neither add nor detract from the subject. I prefer not to comment on things I have no experience in or information I cannot confirm. What I can say, rooted entirely in our database on weather, is that like stock markets or economies, there are cycles to droughts and will tend to last for 37 months. Curiously, this is also fractal being 8.6 x 4.3. Even during the 1930s drought episode that produced the Dust Bowl, the average longest stretch was also 37 months, peaking in March 1935.
There was a cycle inversion that took place during the 1950s, which caused a 19-year extension bringing the average drought to the longest stretch of 56 months, peaking in February 1957. While that drought was longer, it was not as intense as that of the 1930s Dust Bowl. The typical short-term events are reactions, and they are typically maxed out at three months.
That said, I can only look at the data. I do not see any alternation to the cycles insofar as altering their length. If the proposition of the chemtrail argument is valid, then I would assume from the data that, at the very best, it could possibly impact the “volatility” as we experience in a market that changes the intensity.
However, as of June 19, 2022, 51.87% of the lower 48 states are in a drought. We have not yet exceeded the high of 1159 AD. So much for fossil fuels creating global warming.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jul 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
ANSWER: I believe that the answer lies in the very same reason I found it has been able to forecast war. Someone has information BEFORE it becomes public. That then impacts the capital flows and market movements. The computer is monitoring everything and it is picking up the very subtle trends that are every so insignificant to the eye. You are too caught up in the fundamental nonsense. The movie, The Forecaster, showed that the government wanted the source code. To produce such a film, they have to have liability insurance. Llyods of London insured the film and EVERY allegation had to be documented to them in order to even do that film.
This is why some people trolling for the “establishment” or for “government” are so desperate to prevent t people from looking at Socrates. They want you to buy the BS and the lies to keep you blind to reality. They are like pretend fact-checkers like SNOPES who swore that there was no validity to COVID being produced in a lab – it was a natural evolution. Every one of the so-called fact-checkers are funded by the very people they claim to be fact-checking.
Socrates is monitoring everything. Here is the Silver to gold ratio. Notice it is NOT a straight line. This is because, throughout history, the gold and silver discoveries have not taken place at the same time. Hence, the ratio fluctuates wildly since 1792.
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Will you explain what Socrates foresees for after 2032 at this year’s WEC in November? I’m more concerned about my grandkids. A lot of people seem to be plagiarizing you these days. But all they have to offer is an opinion and we all have opinions. Socrates has been the only thing that has ever been consistently correct.
ANSWER: I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model and how markets even trade themselves is always fractal. We are completing the end of the BIG ONE. I think a lot of people are starting to see this too. The End of the World is by no means the END. It is just the point in history where it all begins again. We can see that Biden is probably the instrument of death, or should I say those who write his executive orders and cheat sheets. They are obsessed with climate change and are deliberately trying to destroy our capacity to produce and use fossil fuels.
The hatred and division in our society is just insane. We have celebrities canceling the 4th of July over abortion. The very law that the Supreme Court ruled on limited abortion to 15 weeks. They seem to think they have the right to kill a child up to birth. Bette Midler started a controversy on Twitter by posting: “They don’t call us ‘women’ anymore; they call us ‘birthing people’ or ‘menstruators,’ and even ‘people with vaginas!’ Don’t let them erase you! Every human on earth owes you.” The world has gone insane, and all these labels only divide society, creating one group against another. This is the total destruction of society and these people are so stupid, that they cannot see what they are doing because of their own deranged views.
There is an ebb and flow to civilization. We all come together because it benefits all of us, and then it falls apart when one group begins to exploit another. This is the basic rhythm of civilization. As taxes are low and the economy booms in the city, the youth are attracted to the city and leave their parents on the farms or suburbs and head off to make their fortune in the world. Rome became the largest city in history, reaching a population in excess of 1 million by its peak in 180 AD. It had crossed that 1 million mark in 133 AD during the reign of Hadrian (117-138AD).
With the death of Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) in 180 AD, the decline and fall began just 51.6 years after it exceeded one million people. The crazy emperor Commodus (177-192 AD) followed his father. Like the Democrats today who attack anyone who supported Trump and are still running against Trump in 2022, Commodus did the same, and anyone who had supported his father he attacked. Today, Liz Cheney, who is as evil as her father in my opinion, is today’s Commodus. She is the destroyer of civilization, for her personal hatred of Trump is dividing the nation and will ensure that people like her will end the United States as we have known it. Cheney will unleash civil war if she really thinks that she can prevent Trump from running imprisoning over 300 people already for entering the Capitol on January 6. Not even their hated Putin even did that to protesters. This will lead to civil war.
Edward Gibbon wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” about the son of Marcus Aurelius and how he set in motion the collapse of Rome. He wrote of Commodus (177-192AD):
“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”
(Book 1, Chapter 4).
We see the same hatred spewing from Cheney’s mouth and with the Democrats. Nobody seems to understand what makes civilization work. They are dividing civilization for personal hatred and gain and in the process fulfilling the cycle that will end civilization as we know it.
Rome was the largest city in ancient times. It eventually collapsed to a population of just 15,000 during the middle ages. The city of London, England, was the first city to reach a population again of one million and it took nearly 6 waves of 309.6 years. London reached the 1 million mark in 1810 during the reign of George III (1760-1820) and in comparison, New York City finally reached that level in 1875 thanks to all the people fleeing Europe. We once again are approaching the peak in civilization and what will come after 2032 will be once more the disintegration of civilization.
Rome fell and broke up into small enclaves that ushered in the feudal system. People became serfs for the common protection of a landlord and his castle. We still retain the word “landlord” to this very day. We will see a new world where countries will no longer exist as we know them and they will all divide and separate into localized jurisdictions lacking the strength of central power.
There will be battles over separation. About 86 years from the peak of Rome, it was divided into three segments. Then there were battles to reunite the empire. Then Constantine divided the empire by moving the capital to Constantinople, which is today Istanbul. Even when Russia fell, it divided regions along the lines of the original countries that were conquered.
Globalization will come to an end and we’re already witnessing this with the Biden sanctions on Russia that have caused inflation and divided the world economy in two. We will witness a return to make the manufacture of various goods locally for each division as well as growing their own food. Energy may revert back to wood and oil for there will be no major power grids as they become localized.
Our population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040. The population is already shrinking and aging in all the major industrialized nations. Just as in ancient Rome, the first Emperor Augustus issued Family Laws because as an economy expands, the birthrate declines. We see many young girls professing they do not want children. This too is part of the cycle, but they will die alone for children historically were the foundation of civilization as they were charged with taking care of their parents. This is what socialism has done — destroyed the family unit.
I often am asked, how can we prevent the trend. Unfortunately, we cannot. It is far greater than anyone can correct. People like Jessica Chastain are all about them. Without children, her luxurious lifestyle will crumble and she will face the stark reality of how civilization has survived with children taking care of their parents. Even in China, the one-child rule significantly altered its future. While that has now been repealed, the damage long-term is profound.
This will be a NEW BEGINNING for civilization. We will get to rewrite the form of government of the future. This will be a 309.6-year Private Wave, which will be volatile, but our current form of Republics that pretend they are democracies are coming to an end. These are the most corrupt forms of government known in history. They will no longer exist. We will see an admixture of dictatorships/monarchies and democracies.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates correctly projected the claimed Citibank manipulation of Monday in Sweden. It wrote: “The strongest target in the Daily array is Mon. 2nd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 2nd to Fri. 6th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. I”
How did Socrates project this and then showed it would bounce with another Directional Change? Was it really a manipulation? Citigroup did confirm that it played a role in yesterday’s flash crash. They released a statement: “This morning one of our traders made an error when inputting a transaction. Within minutes, we identified the error and corrected it.” The exchange refused to cancel the trades. This is confusing for it was not beyond the parameters that Socrates laid out including the technical analysis.
Any clarification would be interesting.
All the best
ANSWER: I understand that the common definition of manipulation is simply a big move. To me, this was NOT a manipulation. My definition is moving a market COUNTER-TREND which this was not. Yes, Socrates projected that Monday the 2nd would be a low and that the Directional Changes back to back suggested it would be more of a knee-jerk reaction rather than a change in trend. The array showed the biggest target would be Monday, May 2nd.
There had been low volume. Thus, if it was a mistake, a smaller amount of selling could have a greater impact. However, it still did not move beyond the parameters of the trend as pre-defined by Socrates. Even the technical analysis that the computer does itself showed that this was NOT outside the norm. I appreciate that everyone will jump on this as a “manipulation” but that is just not the case. Manipulation is something that MUST simply be COUNTER-TREND. Making a market move in the direction of the trend in a spike manner is NOT a manipulation. At best, this is ENHANCING a move within its trend. But it is not a manipulation.
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Forecaster Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1: Marty;
Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected.
I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?
QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______ post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.
My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?
ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.
It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.
Yes, on December 3rd, 2013, I posted: “Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch.” I wrote:
“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”
If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.
What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.
I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Oct 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you think only the left is evil?
ANSWER: Of course not. If you understand cycles, markets go up, and then they go down. It is NEVER a one-way street. Politics is the same. Sometimes the Democrats are in power, and then it flips to Republicans (Conservative v Labour). If you go to the extreme far-right, you end up at the same place as the extreme far left; the only difference is their reasoning. Both will oppose their opponents.
This is what cycles are about. I would no more support the extreme right as I would the extreme left. Civilization works ONLY when LIBERTY prevails. Once one side demands their opponent must conform to their ideas, the very purpose of civilization no longer exists. If we are not respectful of one another’s rights, then we must also surrender all our rights.
If you understand cycles, we buy in bull markets and sell in bear markets. You will lose everything if you take only one side and ignore the trends. Politics is the same. During the 19th century, the Democrats were the slave owners. Agendas and principles always change with the cycles.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jul 10, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
I have explained that we know nothing about who created blockchain, but it allows every transaction to be traced. With a credit card, they can tell if you bought something. With Bitcoin, they can tell I gave you money first, and then you bought something. Central banks are moving to cryptocurrency because this will ensure 100% tax collection. The Bank of England was saying that parents will be able to control what their children spend money on. The problem is that the government will control what we too can spend on. Here is the BIS telling you the reality of the future. They want 100% of all transactions taxed. I suppose the girl next door will have to watch your kids for payment in kind — chocolate bars or clothes.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 2, 2021 | Sundance | 106 Comments
CTH has said repeatedly the road to serfdom is cemented with the catch-phrase “a service driven economy.” The June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor statistics [BLS LINK] highlights the JoeBama economic policy exactly that way.
Approximately 850,000 jobs were gained in June; however, simultaneously the number of long-term unemployed increased by 233,000 to the current state of four million.
While we should expect to see the leisure and hospitality industries as well as education rebounding from the various COVID-19 shutdowns, and indeed they did ( +343,000 and +155,000 respectively), manufacturing was flat (+11,000), and construction was down -7,000. The details inside the data are not as great as the top-line would presume.
CTH looks at alternative data connected to the overall economy; empirical data and sector specific trends inside industry. The biggest domestic issue is inflation, stunningly large increases in prices for fast-turn consumer goods like food and fuel. Inflation is one of the primary reasons we have stated home values and home sales have peaked on a MACRO level despite the massive amount of real estate investment purchasing underway by financial institutions.
When we look at durable good production, we focus on the primary drivers of higher cost middle-class or working class products. Seeing construction jobs decline by 7,000 at the same time real-estate values are increasing only points to the problem of working class not being able to afford new home purchases. In the real estate sector this is unsustainable; it is simply a matter of math, income stability and wages.
The same issue applies within the auto-manufacturing sector. Auto jobs were down -12,000 in June. Automotive manufacturing companies operate their production forecasts on short-term (6 month) and longer term (up to 5 year) analysis. The auto industry gets immediate (in real time) feedback throughout the supply chain, distribution and sales. They modify their employment quickly.
There are now 7,000 less construction workers and 12,000 less auto workers in June than May. This directly aligns with inflation and the substantial decline in real wages.
Additional confirmation of a weak blue-collar jobs situation shows up in work hours. In June “the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) This is not a sign of a healthy, broad-based expanding economy.
25,000 day-care workers went back to work; that’s good. That reflects the service workers going back to work in leisure, hospitality, hotels, restaurants, bars, venues and other service driven sectors. However, even that gain of 25k is soft when you consider the scale of U.S. unemployment which was unmoved at 5.9%.
The top-line data looks good with 850,000 jobs created, but when you look at the “good jobs“, those jobs with higher blue-collar wage rates, the outlook is a little more concerning. Everyone is paying more for gasoline & food, and that hits the checkbook quickly. It’s not a matter of random statistics, look at the people around you, your family, friends and community…. what do you see?
We hear almost nothing about corporate investment expanding inside the U.S. economy from either foreign or domestic corporations. Wall Street earnings are being enhanced by the return to a ‘service driven economy‘, unfortunately that creates a bigger wealth gap between the working class and the investment class.
Wake up Bernie Bros,…. you’ve been conned.