The Risk of War between Pakistan & India


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?

KED

ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.

The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.

Nine American Women and Children Massacred by Mexican Drug Cartel, President Trump Offers U.S. Military Assistance to Mexican Government….


Last month the Mexican government backed-down from a drug cartel in Culiacan, releasing the two sons of drug lord El Chappo after the cartel overwhelmed the Mexican military during an attempted arrest.  The cartel defeated the Mexican military.

Today, three American mothers and six children (4 boys, 2 girls) were brutally murdered in northern Mexico by drug cartels prompting President Trump to offer military assistance to Mexican President Lopez-Obrador in the ongoing struggle against cartel violence.

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MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Gunmen killed nine women and children in the bloodiest attack on Americans in Mexico for years, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to offer to help the neighboring country wipe out drug cartels believed to be behind the ambush.

All nine people killed in Monday’s daytime attack at the border of Chihuahua and Sonora belonged to the Mexican-American LeBaron family, members of a breakaway Mormon community that settled in northern Mexico’s hills and plains decades ago.

A video posted on social media showed the charred and smoking remains of a vehicle riddled with bullet holes that was apparently carrying the victims on a dirt road when the attack occurred.

[…] A relative, Julian LeBaron, called the incident a massacre and said some family members were burned alive.

In a text message to Reuters he wrote that four boys, two girls and three women were killed. Several children who fled the attack were lost for hours in the countryside before being found, he said. He said it was unclear who carried out the attack.

[…] Trump tweeted that he would await a call from Lopez Obrador, urging him to accept U.S. assistance.

Lopez Obrador said he would call Trump on Tuesday about ways to cooperate on security but rejected what he called any foreign government intervention.

“I’ll speak with President Trump to thank him for his support, and to see if in cooperation agreements there’s the possibility of getting help,” he told a news conference. “I don’t think we need the intervention of a foreign government to deal with these cases,” he added.

[…] “War is irrational. We believe in peace,” said Lopez Obrador, a leftist who took office last December. (read more)

It’s starting to look like President Lopez-Obrador is a cartel manager.

Build the wall.

BREXIT – Live Decline & Fall of Western Society


Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized on Sunday to Conservatives for failing to take the U.K. out of the European Union by Oct. 31st. Nigel Farage said he won’t personally run for a seat in Parliament. The plan to leave by Oct. 31st was blocked by the Remain crowd who refuse to accept any democratic process because they lost the vote. This is what is behind the decline and fall of western civilization. The losing crowd to any election is unwilling to ever accept a loss and move on. We have entered the second half of the Economic Confidence Model wave where governments simply lose all-purpose. The Remain crowd prevented a BREXIT without a divorce deal. They required Johnson to seek a BREXIT extension. The EU has granted a three-month Brexit extension until Jan. 31st, 2020.

Johnson has pushed for an early national election on Dec. 12th in which he hopes to get a more BREXIT-friendly Parliament. Nigel Farage has, in turn, pushed for his BREXIT Party to team up in a coalition with Johnson’s Conservatives for the December election. However, Johnson has so far refused the offer. That seems to be a wrong decision on Johnson’s part. This has resulted in Farage vowing that his party will contest every seat in England, Scotland and Wales against the Conservatives unless Johnson drops his BREXIT agreement, which Farage and his party believe is far worse than a no-deal BREXIT. Nigel told the BBC he will travel within Britain to support some 600 BREXIT Party candidates rather than by seeking a seat for himself. It is ironic that probably the best-qualified person to lead BREXIT is Farage, but he told the BBC: “I don’t want to be in politics for the rest of my life.”

Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.75


COMMENT: I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.75 would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year. It seems that there are people desperate to try to prevent others from listing to you. I think they are conspiring against the people.

HS

REPLY: I know. It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

“As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.75), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05.”

December 28, 2014

I think the collapse in the confidence of governments has been indeed the pronounced characteristic of this 4.3 year part of the wave. The European and Japanese Bond markets have been destroyed. Both governments are on life support. I think we have some very serious sovereign debt problems and we are looking at that on the state and municipal levels. Why would someone claim we have been wrong and misrepresent that there is no sovereign debt crisis? It certainly seems that they are spreading propaganda to help keep the banks and governments in play.

Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!!The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

They simply try to assume this is my personal opinion and they are incapable of looking at the global economy and how it is all connected. Focusing on a single component blinds them from seeing the whole.

I fully appreciate we can bring legal action against them and have sent that question to our lawyers.

Nigel Farage Interviews Donald Trump


The International Politics is Impacting Where People Can Travel


COMMENT: Marty; I don’t think you realize that when Nigel Farage said your events are the alternative to Davos, there is no other event that has such attendance. I have been to other trading conferences. They are lucky to have half your attendance and you have more institutions than even Davos. I know you keep trying to limit the size of these events, but we get to meet so many people from all over the globe. Your staff said you had attendees from over 50 countries this year. Please don’t reduce the size.

Thanks for the great conference. It was spectacular and provided detail that is really not available anywhere.

Cheers

Keep up the good work

EK

REPLY: I appreciate your perspective. We have over 1,000 attendees at these events each year and the demand keeps growing. This year, politics was playing in the background. The biggest institutions from China could not attend because of the trade dispute. They did not want to apply for a visa. So we will have to hold one in Shanghai in the Spring. Politics will only get worse. I do not know if we will be able to hold any in Europe starting 2021 due to the changes in the law for visas there. It is getting worse by the year. Our own staff in India were denied visas to attend the conference this year.

Many do not want to travel to the States and we have to accommodate our international clients. Each year it is getting more difficult.

BREXIT The Collapse of Democracy


QUESTION: Marty; You are more connected to BREXIT than any of these analysts. What is your view of this mess?

PH, London

 

ANSWER: What we are witnessing is the collapse of Democracy. The people voted for BREXIT and the losers do whatever they can to remain. Unfortunately, many of those in Parliament are in the REMAIN camp and have absolutely no rational evidence whatsoever why Britain is better in the EU than out. It is just political propaganda that remaining in the EU is somehow better than leaving. The Euro is a sinking ship and the REMAIN camp is honestly too stupid to even understand or objective enough to look at the trend.

Welcome to BREXIT, where the REMAIN camp has worked very hard to paralyze Westminster to crush the democratic process. Boris Johnson calls this the “zombie” parliament for it has accomplished nothing in three and a half years. Theresa May was in favor of the REMAIN Camp and this is what you get as a result.

The Britons will go on December 12th to a general election that will be dominated by the BREXIT issue and whether the country will go ahead and join the world economy of the sinking Eurozone. Less than 50% of Britain’s trade is with the Eurozone. Britain CANNOT cut a trade deal outside the EU because any of the members can veto any deal. Europe is pretending to be one nation, but it is a complete joke. Can you imagine if the president in the USA had to get the approval of all 50 states before he signed any trade deal? Nothing would ever get done. That is the structure of Europe.

The BREXIT Party of Nigel Farage is hoping to secure its first MPs in this December election. However, there is a split emerging between those who want to run in all 650 seats and others who would prefer to focus on a smaller, targeted list. The concern is that the BREXIT party could in some places hand a victory to a REMAIN candidate by splitting the vote. This is the concern about running in some areas. The fascinating aspect is that the computer pinpointed the week of December 9th as a Panic Cycle before the election was even announced. The question I have is the subtle movements of the markets apparently were indicating that there would be an election and they even targeted the week. This is just why Socrates is so much better than personal opinions that always begin with “I think” in some version or another. There is just so much more to how markets move than most people would ever imagine.

 

Catalonia & the Inevitable Split of Spain


QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I was expecting a blog about Catalonia after the trial. So, here I am. Things have escalated lately and we are seeing violence in the streets. People are getting angry with no solution nor proposal from Madrid on the table for years. Spain will never allow Catalonia to get independence, a referendum nor anything basically. They will do everything they can to avoid it. We did see that so many times already, working very closely with the law. It seems to me that independence has never been so close though. I am expecting PSOE together with PP to rule after 10N. They will make bad decisions again and I see that after that we might see the last part of the journey to finally get independence. I am not sure how this could/will be done. Spanish will jail everyone, beat everyone and call us nazis, violent, not using the law properly, supremacists etc. EU will not support it again. This time though I have the feeling we will make it. What does you/Socrates see here? How can independence be achieved in these circumstances? Spain has the law (theirs) and the power to stopped, but this has gone too far, we really need to do it. Our future and our children’s future are at high risk sticking within Spain.
Thanks for all your work.
M
ANSWER: It was the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella in 1469 which united both crowns and set the stage for the creation of the Kingdom of Spain, at the dawn of the modern era. From a cyclical perspective, Spain will probably split by 2029. The separatist movement for Catalonia remains in play. It is only a question of time. The economic pressure will be to surge in 2021/2022 and that will most likely result in the final separation by 2029 with the potential to come a little early by 2025.

The Ability to Filter Which Stocks to Invest In


QUESTION: Thank you for all your work. I was fortunate to be introduced to you in 1986 by a senior broker while I was working at Drexel, Burnham . Your work saved me, my clients from the ’87 crash.
My question: with Socrates forecast of a shift to China as the new financial power, would it not be worthwhile to begin to identify Chinese companies to invest in that will prosper in the longer term. I recognize that timing of when to establish positions is critical. Thank you.
-BC

ANSWER: We have put all the Chinese stocks on the site since we do have offices there. I have made an effort to bring Socrates into China and our forecasting is available throughout China, which is rare. The government is well aware that our services are written by a computer so they do not have to worry that in paragraph three some line may go against their government.

What we will be introducing next year are filters where the computer will create lists of things that have just elected a reversal on different levels and reflect the gaps to provide a good idea of the next move.

We should have a lot more interesting tools available next year where you can make inquiries like that and the computer will respond. As I have said, my goal is to replace me. I have been coding all my personal experiences as a trader over the years and teaching the computer how I analyze things. At the same time, I have been teaching it how to do the research on its own to enable it to teach me new relationships as they are emerging.

We may be able to accomplish where it can speak to you, but it is a major effort to get it to listen to you over the internet. We have had some people proposing a partnership where someone can develop a stand-alone program that resides on your system (app). This would allow you to talk to Socrates and it will retrieve the information you need.

When that is finished, then we will consider the IPO to keep this going after my expiration date arrives. I hope that one day politics will understand that there are cycles, and if we live in harmony with them instead of fighting them, just maybe we can improve society for all. Like the global warming nonsense which all based upon linear assumptions, politics is also based upon vote for me and I will give you X, Y, and Z even if the business cycle is moving in the opposite directio

Migrants Rioting in Malta


The migrants trying to get into Europe for free welfare rioted on Monday in Malta setting cars on fire and attacking staff. Malta had agreed to house them temporarily in a detention center waiting for other EU countries to accept them for settlement. This illustrates the fears of many in Europe about all of these migrants who have been allowed to enter without skills in language or fields that would be suitable for employment. Despite the violence, European politicians simply cannot admit that this has been a huge mistake.