Discovering Cycles


QUESTION: Speaking of cycles and frequency I guess the question is how to find the exact beginning of a cycle? You say 8.6 is the base frequency. Why not 8.5875? In other words, how do you come up with the exact day a cycle begins?

A

ANSWER: You have to discover them. The 8.6 I discovered from a list of international panics covering 1683 to 1907 that I stumbled upon while doing research in the Firestone Library at Princeton University. There were 26 events within 224 years. That was 8.6153846… When I began to test it, I discovered it was interlaced with volatility, which moves on a different frequency of a base of 6. This is a very deep subject that cannot be addressed in a simple blog post.

 

I will release two books on this subject this year – “The Geometry of Time” and “The Economic Confidence Model.” I am working hard to get a series of books out now. Trying to finish up my goals. These will deal with the cyclical nature of time and the world we live in.

Are Climate Activists Displaying Patterns of Violence That Always Undermines Civilization?


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it interesting how the entire climate crisis people are pushing so hard to seize everything and force zero CO2 which is impossible when a volcano or forest fire releases far more CO2 than driving cars around. Then they ignore the sun entirely when even NASA said we are headed into a cooling people.

 

REPLY: The press helped them to push this agenda because all they are interested in has been catchy headlines to sell advertising. There is no more truth in newsrooms anymore — it’s just not profitable. Yes, NASA warned we were heading into a cooling period back in 2018. Despite all of that, I get emails claiming I am wrong and they should shut down this blog. These are evil people who have always been a danger to any free society, for they seek to oppress and eventually kill anyone who disagrees with them. It never matters what the subject might be. This pattern of behavior ALWAYS historically leads to violence be it religion, economics (Marxism), or now climate. They just hate people and that’s the bottom line.

 

The subject matter seems to be irrelevant. They display the same pattern that has led to millions of deaths throughout history. The hatred they display is eerily similar to the rise of Communism during first the Revolutions of 1848 and then the early 20th century. This will lead to major bloodshed by 2036. The bottom of that cycle was 2005, which marked three important events.

 

  1. The IRA announced the end to armed conflict and gave up its weapons to independent weapons inspectors
  2. Israeli settlers were forced to leave settlements in the Gaza Strip as part of a peace settlement
  3. Syria withdrew the last of its 14,000 troop military garrison in Lebanon ending its 29-year military occupation

The peak of that cycle will be 3

Seeing Cycles Everywhere Around Us


 

For years, it has been a sort of family joke that I view the world around me and see the cycles in everything. I had walked into a casino and noticed there were cycles to the numbers coming out on a roulette wheel, but more fascinating was that the cycles were unique to each dealer. This is why casinos rotate the dealers from table to table. I notice this particular dealer was very cyclical one night so when the casino moved him, I closed and followed him to the next table. This was back around 1971, and I was winning a lot so people began watching me. Some very big player from Texas came and sat beside me and whatever I played he did too. We made so much money they closed the casino. Whenever I would walk into a casino and start to play roulette, within 30 minutes they came to me and asked my name and would always say we recognize you as a player. I would cash out and just leave.

Triple-Crown-odds

There was a family gathering and my daughter was always fond of horses. The talk was all about the Triple Crown. They said no one had won since 1978. I did the wave math in my head and replied that this year the horse will win. I do not even follow horses. They just looked at me and asked, “You can forecast that too?” I simply looked at the stats and saw the cycles. I said this is the year the horse will win – and American Pharaoh won. What did I see in the stats? The major turning point from 1978 should be 37.33 (8.6 * 4.3) bringing it to 2015. The horse won. I didn’t bet on the race. Like the scene in the movie the Matrix, I just see the cycles to everything around me.

Now there is Jason Padgett, who is 41, and he sees complex mathematical formulas everywhere he looks. He sees the geometry in everything. He said, “I see bits and pieces of the Pythagorean theorem everywhere.” He continued, “Every single little curve, every single spiral, every tree is part of that equation.” He hand draws what he sees and he is a college drop out but understands and sees the fractal nature of everything. As I have tried to explain, everything is connected and there is absolutely nothing void of a cycle. Even when something dies, there is a cycle to the decay as everything turns back to dust as they say.

Padgett can draw a visual representation of the formula pi, which is really an infinite number that begins with 3.14. He explains, “A fractal is a shape that when you take the shape a part into pieces, the pieces are the same or similar to the whole. So say I had 1,000 pictures of you, that were little and I put all those little pictures of you in the right spot to make the exact same picture of you, but bigger.” While Benoit Mandelbrot is credited with discovering Fractal Geometry, he was not someone who could see it in the real world all around him. He was a mathematician and his attempt to apply it to things was not very helpful.

I have tried to explain why cycles exist. Any time I have been wrong, it has simply been my interpretation of the cycle, not that there is no cycle. The reason you can find a cycle that works for a bit and then it suddenly vanishes has been because of the interconnections – not the fact that cycles do not work. For you see, the interconnections are what produce the major overwhelming events, which is why economists are always wrong and have been unable to forecast the future. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a conjunction of many cycles such as technology where the invention of the combustion engine reduced the need for workers in agriculture. Like the internet is replacing local book and camera stores, tractors reduced the agricultural workforce from 40% to 3% causing unemployment to rise. Add to that the Dust Bowl, the Sovereign Debt Crisis in 1931, and the excess capital inflows fleeing Europe, what you ended up with was a bubble economy like Japan into 1989, and then the dramatic decline. Such events and NEVER simply one cause. Nevertheless, every investigation into such events always attempts to reduce it to a single cause and effect which is impossible.

What is most fascinating about Padgett is that this remarkable gift appeared only after he was attacked and suffered some brain damage. Berit Brogaard, who was a neuroscientist at the Center for Neurodynamics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis flew Padgett to Finland to run a series of tests as to why he could suddenly see the fractal world around him. The results revealed that his brain showed the damage from the attack he suffered, but the brain rewired itself and was using particular areas that most people don’t have access to. Padgett had become an acquired savant, which means he was brilliant but in a specific area. His story is quite fascinating. He has acquired talent to see the fractal interconnections and suddenly was able to draw what he sees. Remarkable!

Northwoods & Cycle of War


CycleOfWar-2014

This particular Cycle of War is the combination of two models: 1) international war, and 2) domestic civil unrest. This is the first time these two models have coincided in the same time slot for about 300 years. We should expect a rise in civil unrest going into 2022, but the international war cycle is targeting 2032. We are witnessing a sharp intense rise in civil unrest on a global scale. This is what we should be most concerned about, for this is what leads to separatist movements and in many cases civil war.

I will update the Cycle of War in 2020

The Hidden Order behind the Mask of Chaos


COMMENT: Marty, The last few days I’ve been remotely attending the 2019 WEC Orlando. Lo and behold, now? three months hence and six days into the new wave?I am simply astounded at hearing how you describe your own amazement with the global confluence of events occurring absolutely everywhere while also curious whether there is merely one event telltale to the Jan. 18/19 hand-off. Then, the Wuhan coronavirus breaks out big today and market graphs everywhere all hop on the toboggan to end the week. How did you ever do it?! You’re truly a man of a thousand graces and I, for one, could not be more grateful.

Breaking the WEC to stay current with the latest today, it has been conspicuously absent for me to have yet encountered the term “Black Swan” regarding this Wuhan event. Then, it occurred to me: The term itself is a bit Johnny-come-lately and would not surprise me one bit it has flown the coop over maybe most could be seeking an oil of veracity through Socrates to throw on all these choppy waters.

It would be most interesting to see the traffic stats for AE and Socrates when such events as these take off.

In Gratitude!

D. D.

REPLY: What you have to understand and why I am often so critical of analysis, is that real analysis does NOT begin with a predetermined conclusion. What I am trying to reveal and why I put the very sources of what I have read into books like the Manipulating the World Economy, is because the proper way of analysis is exploration. I have sought perhaps like Leonardo DaVinci to figure out how things actually work without some predetermined agenda. DaVinci dug up dead bodies to try to discover how we function.

All the research I have done is in that vein. So it is me trying to show the world, hey look at this! My opinions and beliefs have been shaped by what I have encountered. I have never looked at research to prove a predetermined idea. That is where everyone goes wrong. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was hated by Keynes and so many others BECAUSE they do not like the way the world economy functions, and they seek to manipulate it to perform as they desire. That is why economics is no longer a science but has degenerated into a political propaganda machine.

People judge me by everyone else. This turn in the Economic Confidence Model is not about me being right, wrong, smarter than everyone else, or any other personal critique. This is about how the world truly functions and everything from weather to disease plays a role right down to this coronavirus which I am running our models to try to ascertain will this be a cyclical pandemic, or an epidemic – a big difference!

All of my research has been a quest to understand how the world truly functions. It has always been:

Hey, take a look at this! Here is order hidden behind the mask of chaos!

Every single action has an equal and opposite reaction. This is why I taught Socrates how to look for patterns and how to analyze those patterns. I have warned that the 2020 election will be notorious and will mark a rise in violence. People are unwilling to accept the vote of the people. If they lose, they blamed Russia for everything. Democracy is dying along with civility. I am not interested in being right, I wish I was wrong.

We are faced with the collapse in Democracy our model forecast back in 1985 would begin 2015.75. Politicians like Adam Schiff are the poster child for absolute corruption and dishonesty. This type of behavior has never been seen and is merely an attempt to put a Democrat in the White House who will raise taxes and devastate the business community in the spirit of “progressiveness” which is the new politically correct label for Marxism.

This is all part of the decline and fall of the West and the shift in the Financial Capital of the World back to Asia. It does not matter who wins in 2020, the other side will never accept the winner.

The Future & Analysis


QUESTION:  Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I just saw your interview on BNN, too bad you only had about 7 minutes to explain something that big, guess that’s the Limitation of TV Media I’m glad I bought the Repo Crisis Report. You would not have such limitations on your own platform like youtube. Can you see yourself doing a compilation of blog articles or updates in a video format like once or week or a month? You used to do this in 2015 for many Markets and also explained your reading on the arrays and reversals. I guess many people think of it as highly as I myself do.
all the best

ES

ANSWER: That is why the special reports are so important. You really have to support what you are saying or end up with just “I think” opinions that plague the analysis field. What I am doing is coding right now something to highlight everything that is taking place on a global scale with the ECM etc. I am trying to create systems that replace me and will keep going long after I am gone. We all do have expiration dates. I am trying to replace me. We even laugh internally for some have proposed we create a hologram of myself that could still appear long after I am gone

Edmonton & the 7th Century


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong…HOW DARE YOU!!!!!????

My brother lives in Edmonton, AB where the surface air temperature is a refreshing -23F as of 6:30 pm MST this evening. I am in the coastal northeast where if that temperature were to occur, there would probably be a societal breakdown with tens of thousands frozen to death overnight along with power outage, looting, and rioting. But in Edmonton, things just roll along like another day.

In the case of medieval Europe, would you say that the Huns may have been motivated in the 5th century AD to move east out of the steppe lands into western Europe due to the colder climate? Also, in the 6th century during the intensified cold, the Gothic wars erupted which led to a major depopulation of the Italian peninsula. Then in the 7th century, there seems to have been so little history documented that the misery taking place there may have been at an extreme degree at that time. Were there any coins minted during the 7th century in western Europe? The ones you showed of Peppin the Short and Charles the Great from the 8th century are fascinating! Also, did Charles Martel have any minted for him in the early 8th century?

JD

REPLY: I have been to Edmonton. Gave a lecture there back in the ’90s. Hundreds of people showed up, and I assumed it was just to get together to huddle for warmth. It was -40F. Not sure anyone was really listening to what I said. They were looking for hot air if I recall. The next day was only -20F and there were people in short-sleeve shirts calling it a beautiful spring day. All I remember is I could not open my mouth outside it was so cold my teeth would hurt. I also remember it was so cold they couldn’t even turn off their cars. They would never start again.

Yes, Charles Martel and Peppin the Short issued silver deniers. It was Charlemagne who was the first to apply his portrait to the coinage. So there was coinage during this 7th century, but something changed dramatically at that time. Peppin the Short was the son of Charles Martel who halted the Arab invasion of Europe in 732. The Carolingians, therefore, take their name from Peppin’s father Charles Martel.

Martel was really the last of the Merovingian dynasty which ruled the Franks from the middle of the 5th century until 751 AD. They first appear as “Kings of the Franks” in the Roman army of northern Gaul. By 509 AD, they had united all the Franks and northern Gaulish Romans under their rule as the Roman Empire which had broken apart in 476 AD. The coinage of the Merovingians was gold, not silver.

The Merovingian rulers began imitating the gold solidus issued by the Eastern surviving portion of the Roman Empire, which we call the Byzantine Empire. They issued gold tremissis from about 473 AD under Gundobald and then imitated the Byzantine coinage from about 500 AD forward.

Therefore, it was the 8th century when we find gold vanish from coinage in the Western portion of the old Roman Empire which appears to be coinciding with the rise of the Arab world and their attempt to invade Europe.

There is no doubt that the migrations were driven by climate change. Climate change has always caused massive migrations which have historically been movements from North to South. Even the Mayans of Mexico appear to have DNA links to Asia and were migrants perhaps 15,000 years ago who crossed the Beringia land bridge, which had formed between northeastern Siberia and western Alaska due to the lowering of sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum. It turned warmer back then without CO2 from fossil fuels and then the Ice Age change the sea leve

The ECM & Who to Blame


COMMENT: You are dangerous. The stock market peaked on your model again but nobody’s models work like that so it is just more proof you don’t advertise because you are way too influential. So what are you up to now? You are against the progressive movement and you will undermine what we work for to unseat people like you.

SB

REPLY: Well I was in contempt when the 2007 target hit. They called it Armstrong’s Revenge. Granted, it was even the very day that Goldman Sachs sold their notorious portfolio right at the top for which they were charged with fraud. Did they use the model or did the model forecast when they would sell?

Sure, people like you can always blame me, but just perhaps this is a model that exposes the hidden order in the appearance of chaos. You can choose to dismiss it and claim it is all just me and my influence. No matter what they have done to me, the model still worked even when I never said a word.

That’s your loss. Your closed mind prevents you from ever seeing the real world. Keep believing you can suppress the rest of us because you want a life where everything comes free. Sorry, the government is not your parent. I have no problem moving to Asia and let you and your friends tax each other until death.

Don’t worry, when I am dead, the model will keep going. Even Athens fell in 404BC to Sparta right on time. I don’t think I was around then to influence that, or the climates changes, or the rise and fall of just about every empire throughout history.

So blame me if that really makes you feel better. But there is something much more important influencing everything besides me

Davos Today


QUESTION: Marty, you are not in Davos?

KS

ANSWER: No, too cold right now. I have people there who provide anything critical from behind the curtain. There is nothing I can say that would be important that anyone would actually do more than listen. I have said many times, there is NOTHING we can do to prevent what is coming. World leaders will ONLY take action when the economy begins to Crash & Burn. The climate activists there will ensure they will destroy the economy and they are socialists who want people to be punished for driving cars and heating their homes.

Here is the face of Global Warming in Newfoundland. Just a small snowstorm.

Agriculture Yield Elected Yearly Bearish Reversal


At the end of 2019, we obtained Yearly Bearish Reversals on crop production in many areas. This is lining up with the ECM and it is warning that weather is turning against us for food production. The market tends to focus only on year/year numbers and ignore the trend on a broader perspective.

The USDA 2019 corn harvest had a total production of 13.692 billion bushels, with average yields of 168.0 bushels per acre across 81.5 million acres. This was slightly higher than analysts expected which was about 13.513 billion bushels, based on average yields of 166.2 bushels per acre across 81.350 million harvested acres. USDA’s prior tally was for 13.661 billion bushels, based on yields of 167.0 billion bushels across 81.815 million acres. Nevertheless, the broader trend elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal warning that we may indeed see lower yielding crops as we head into this new Solar Cycle which begins here in 2020 and appears to be poised to be the lowest sun cycle in more than 200 years.

We never elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal in wheat prices. Nevertheless, from the 2016 low, we have elected two Yearly Bullish Reversals. This perspective combined with our models on weather are pointing to higher prices in the years ahead