Interview: The Perfect Storm

Armstrong Economic Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

To Check out the video click here to view my most recent interview with Outer Limits: “The Perfect Storm.”

Commentary from Ryan McCormick:

Legendary economic forecaster and pro-freedom advocate Martin Armstrong once again appears on the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: The neoconservative agenda and the likelihood for war with Russia, Political corruption in Ukraine and the impact on global perception of the United States, And why the 2023 Financial Crisis is colliding with important cyclical targets regarding war, which may result in a two-prong panic of unprecedented significance. Marin also shares his perspective on Alan Turing's groundbreaking work on the mathematical order behind Morphogenesis and offers an updated outlook on how the US will breakup.

The Myth of Fair Value

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Mar 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: If the metals are not trading at a fair value relative to everything else, then does that not prove they are manipulated?


ANSWER: Your problem is the assumption that everything must be trading at some fair value. That is up there with the theory of random walks.  ALL markets trade for periods where they remain well below fair value. That was the entire takeover boom of the 1980s which they also blamed on me because I was advising many of the takeover players. I simply showed these charts back then which show in terms of book value, the Dow Jones bottomed in 1977. The market was grossly undervalued because you could buy a company, sell all its tangible assets, and double or triple your money. Michael Douglas’ famous speech in that movie about “greed” would not even be possible if everything always trade like some mythical robot at fair value. Everything overshoots and undershoots.

The metals are NO DIFFERENT. Every market swings between grossly UNDERVALUED and then grossly OVERVALUED. This is part of the business cycle. If there were no periods of gross undervaluations, there would not be a sudden boom either.

This is what you have to come to grips with. There is such a thing and the business cycle. Our cyclical analysis would not be possible if everything was trading at a flat line of fair value. This nonsense in metals is made up of people who have been wrong, and need to blame someone else. It is like blaming climate cycles on CO2. This notion of fair value is rooted, I hate to tell you, in Marxism, because he too did not understand  the business cycle.

Full Stack Starship COMPLETES Full WDR, 33-Engine Static Fire Next Week! S24 Scrapped?

spaceXcentric Publish on Rumble on January 28, 2023

SpaceX’s Fully Stacked Starship Rocket Enters Final Stretch Before First Orbital Flight

spaceXcentric January 21, 2023

Getting ready for a first full test

SpaceX Starlink Launch

spaceXcentric Streamed on: Jan 19, 10:58 am EST

SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 19 for a Falcon 9 launch of 51 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 7:43 a.m. PT. Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean. We will go live ~10 minutes prior to liftoff.

The Fed & the Misinformation

Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Jan 11, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I was there at your Berlin conference when one of the attendees openly admitted he was from the Bundesbank. He was very open about it. There have been other central bankers at your WEC. I suppose they have to attend just to get a whiff of the trend. Powell has come out and asserted the Fed’s independence and it will not make policy based on climate change. That was very refreshing.  The bulk of analysts still cry about the creation of money at the Fed are insisting that a recession is coming because when the Fed stops printing, we will see a correction worse than 2008. Some call this a confetti party. Many claims to be fed watchers, but have never stepped inside their door. Meeting the people I have at your WEC events, you are always in the center and I can see it is not your opinion but Socrates that they want to listen to for an unbiased view. So will there be a huge correction when this party is over or have the fed watches been talking sophistry with no real insight?


PS: What about a Dubai WEC because the world imposes vaccine passports?

ANSWER: I know, This is the typical myopic domestic view that the Fed is in a very dangerous situation and a wrong move in any direction could cause a financial system meltdown worse than 2008. The argument is that since we have a debt-based monetary system if the Fed stops increasing the money supply this will lead to an economic withdrawal process that will be worse than 2008-2009. Once more, this is only looking at the domestic economy. They live with blinders on and do not see the world around us with respect to the globalization policies that are all in chaos.

Even at Davos in 2003, Alejandro Toledo, then President of Peru, urged the participants to listen to the voices of those protesting outside and to build a bridge with the participants of the Porto Alegre anti-globalization conference. “We must give a human face to the global economy and globalization,” he said. “Managing the economy is not an end in itself, but a means to improve the quality of life. Globalization is meaningless if it does not contribute to reducing poverty all over the world. “ Schwab preaches equality but at the price of Authoritarianism and the loss of individual rights.

The Fed is not between a rock and a hard place domestically. It just made it clear that it is not like the ECB and is not in the climate change business. The Fed is INDEPENDENT and will not be bullied by Biden. The Fed understands that it has become the world’s central bank and its actions in raising rates have had a far greater impact externally particularly in emerging markets because so many other nations issue their debt in US dollars.

The focus is not entirely on the nonsense of the domestic number of the money supply. If a foreigner buys property in the United States, they convert their currency to dollars, and in effect that increases the domestic money supply for that capital now free up cash domestically. The Fed has no control over that aspect and central banks have become aware of this effect which is not taught in economics class and not factored into the doomsday forecasts all based on the same reasoning forever.

All the analysis is constantly based on the Quantity Theory of Money which no longer works in our global economy. That was the foundation of the money theory that emerged with Sir Tomas Greshan who was the agent for the British crown. He saw that when Henry VIII debased the coinage, the value declined in Amsterdam when the exchange rate was solely based upon the metal content of the currency.

All we have ever heard is that the Fed has the power to create money out of thin air. They never explain why the Fed was given that power. You cannot have a fixed money supply as the population increases, then you end up with DEFLATION which is the rise in the value of money. They are married to the argument and nothing you can do will deter them from that saying. During the Great Depression, people hoard their money and do not spend it. That was why the ECB went to negative to try to force people to spend money. You can DOUBLE the money supply but if the people hoard it, you will never create inflation.

Because people hoard their cash, there was a huge contraction in the velocity of money. This resulted in massive shortages and it led to over 200 cities issuing their own money to try to enable a local economy to still function for there was not enough cash to even pay anyone for services.

INFLATION is actually the decline in the purchasing power of the currency as measured against assets. DEFLATION is the rise in the value of money and the decline in the value of assets. The way the term “inflation” is handled today, the government puts the blame on the private sector. During DEFLATION we are blamed for not spending our money.

All this talk about bail-ins and bail-outs misses the point. They act as if they in the end really matter. HYPERINFLATION will never arrive based on increasing the money supply. It arrives with the collapse of CONFIDENCE in the government. Germany imposed a forced loan and confiscated 10% of everyone’s assets in December 1922. Germany lost the war and in 1918 there was a Communist Revolution that led to the creation of the Weimar Republic. The money supply increased 10 fold during 1922 when they were struggling to meet the reparation payments. That undermined the confidence in the government. But it was December 1922 when they confiscated  Note that the hyperinflation took off in 1923 after that forced loan. It was no longer safe to have assets in banks.

This idea that we are headed into so black hole all because the Fed creates money is insane. That misinformation that the German Hyperinflation was all because of printing money was totally absurd and a lie. Once the government stole 10% of everyone’s assets, that was the final straw. They then had to print just to try to cover costs and meet reparation payments.

The Lesson of Germany is seriously distorted and has inflected the view of money supply and inflation which ignores the actions of the government. That is the real issue.

Starship Program Will Have A Busy 2023, Falcon Heavy Launch Just Days Away

Posted originally on Rumble on January 6 2023

Science is ONLY Possible with Constant Inquiry

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jan 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Everybody seems to be up in arms over Musk turning Twitter into a real social media platform. When Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum ban Twitter, you know Musk is doing a great job. Bringing an end to all the propaganda from disease to Putin is such a breath of fresh air. Pray for Elon Musk. You can bet they are trying to come up with a disease or a fancy way they can claim he committed suicide.

When I was researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University, I back friends with a professor there. One day he said to me that I reminded him of Einstein. Was shocked. I said that’s not possible. He said to me that Einstein always attributed his achievements to being curious. He said I had that same curiosity but in economics. I began to understand that ALL scientific inquiry DEMAND curiosity. If we are never curious, we will never discover anything no matter what the field.

No matter what field, you MUST always challenge the status quo. If we do not do that, besides the fact this becomes belief and not science, we will NEVER advance as a society. No matter what the field, without that freedom to inquire, society will collapse just as Communism did. If people are herded into pens like cattle and told they cannot challenge the accepted norm, they are killing humanity. This is why the government has been behind the curtain instructing social media to censor individuals and ideas all for them to desperately retain control. But they feel the world is slipping away. This is why they are fighting so hard to try to stop this trend for they know in the end – this is the decline and fall of western forms of republican governments.

SpaceX Starship Current Orbital Launch Status – “Not Anywhere Close Yet [to Mars]”

spaceXcentric Published Originally on Rumble on December 30, 2022

SpaceX Starship Super Heavy closes in on its first orbital flight attempt. NASA plays with the idea of using Dragon to rescue stranded cosmonauts. Upgrades to the Starlink network have begun. And the 2023 launch cadence is expected to further blow the competition away. Ep 360

A Test of Intelligence

Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, your dog is a cutie! I hate to tell you, but your dog will eventually learn to spell. My wife and I had two poodle-bichons, now deceased after 15 1/2 wonderful years. At first we used your method of spelling out rather than using certain words. In about 2 weeks, they got wise and equated the sound and sequence of the letters with things that they liked to do or eat. There was no fooling them. I have found that smaller dogs are much more clever than the large ones; also, mixed breeds seem to be smarter – and tougher – than the purebreds. There are, of course, exceptions.
In all honesty, dogs are smarter than a lot of people that I know. They are aware of their environment and, if permitted to do so, adapt as necessary.
Thanks for all that you do. Your write-up on price controls and pegs was particularly useful for me. Have a great day and an even better weekend!!!

REPLY: I for one probably never considered the intelligence of a dog. Being engrossed in AI programming, I had to really understand how we think. For example, perhaps the night you fell in love your mind was recording everything unknowingly. You might recall that memory from any individual sense. The food, the smell, the song that was playing, the place, and so on. That memory exists but it can be accessed by any single sense. That was very important in trying to understand even how to begin to program AI. It obviously could not be a simple linear progression – IF x THEN y ELSE z – (the fundamental programming equation.

What I was stunned by was she indeed was building a knowledge base keeping track of what I would do and what I like and then could develop patterns to forecast what I would do next. But she was also displaying strategy. I would throw a ball and expect the standard go fetch. Then she would take the ball and drop it down the stairs and more or less say, OK, now your turn – go fetch. I was simply not prepared to actually interact with a dog that was intelligent aside from the emotional reactions of happy to see you etc. She was displaying the same patterns of thinking that I studied to create AI. Even more fascinating, she was displaying traits of curiosity. I throw the clothes from the washer to the dryer and she has to come and watch. I had heard the saying that curiosity killed the cat. But I never really thought much of it.

She sparked my curiosity. Was she exceptional? Was this normal? A study took place at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany. The study worked with 32 dogs and 20 chimpanzees who were each to carry out the same task. The dogs all responded positively and immediately. However, the chimpanzees didn’t seem to understand what was being asked of them. She would bark at another dog but hold her up to the mirror and she knew it was her. In fact, only a small percentage of animal species have passed this mirror test.

Actions not only speak louder than words, they are the key to understanding how we think as well as even our pets.  Spatial thinking is the foundation of thought and evolved long before even language and as such, you can see it in even your dog’s behavior. Spatial thinking is the knowledge, skills, and habits of the mind using the concepts of space such as distance, orientation, distribution, and association. Even throwing a ball for a dog or faking a throw and they quickly use these same tools to conclude where the ball went or if you never threw it in the first place.

We use such Spatial thinking tools of representation such as maps, graphs, and diagrams, for trading, and how we process these images forms the cornerstone of our reasoning. In other words,  this is the ability for cognitive strategies to facilitate even problem-solving and decision-making. It is the foundation of the very structure of problem-solving, finding answers, and expressing that as the solutions to these problems.

I confess, I never expected a dog to have such qualities of intelligence. I suppose I was biased and just never expected anything so I did not look. This is what I taught Socrates to do. Explore everything and retain curiosity at all costs. Check if Azuki Beans in Japan might become a replacement for fossil fuels – which it is not. However, if we do not look we cannot answer that question definitively.

So pay attention to your dog. You might be surprised that they do not love you because you simply feed them. There is a lot more going on that I never would have expected myself.