Davos Today

QUESTION: Marty, you are not in Davos?


ANSWER: No, too cold right now. I have people there who provide anything critical from behind the curtain. There is nothing I can say that would be important that anyone would actually do more than listen. I have said many times, there is NOTHING we can do to prevent what is coming. World leaders will ONLY take action when the economy begins to Crash & Burn. The climate activists there will ensure they will destroy the economy and they are socialists who want people to be punished for driving cars and heating their homes.

Here is the face of Global Warming in Newfoundland. Just a small snowstorm.

Climate Change & the 2020 ECM Turning Point

The climate change propaganda has become a major economic factor which is undermining the global economy and lowering the standard of living for the average person. Governments have embraced it simply because it is the perfect excuse to raise taxes. It is causing separatist movements such as in Alberta, Canada to the civil unrest in France.

The entire agenda has been orchestrated by real fanatics who are against the Industrial Revolution. Both Greenpeace’s Jennifer Morgan and Al Gore have pushed a very distorted theory using unsupported facts from a pretend 97% consensus on down to attributing the cyclical swing back from the Little Ice Age since the early 1800s to exclusively humans refusing to look at the historical cyclical record of climate.

Their push to enforce their theories by imposing higher taxes and regulations has set in motion the collapse of the German economy which is dooming the Eurozone as a whole. Al Gore and Jennifer Morgan have helped to instigate shutting down any dissent against their movement when we need serious investigations. To dissent is reminiscent of the witchhunts of McCarthy against Hollywood.

The insolvency of numerous European automobile manufacturers is now openly predicted by industry observers. Everything has to be subordinate to the change towards e-mobility and self-driving cars. The fact that electric cars are still not competitive is neglected, as is the question of whether citizens want to drive in vehicles controlled by technology groups.

The turning point in 2020 will be a very profound event that will be viewed with hindsight as we now can see the importance of the change in trend at the top of the ECM — 2015.75.

NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle reveals it will be the weakest of 200 years. Results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach their maximum in 2025. It is very interesting how it has aligned with the ECM turning point on January 18th. If we begin to see a sharp rise in volcanic eruptions, two or three such eruptions of 6+ can create a volcanic winter that would feed into the commodity cycle sending food prices much higher.

Agriculture Yield Elected Yearly Bearish Reversal

At the end of 2019, we obtained Yearly Bearish Reversals on crop production in many areas. This is lining up with the ECM and it is warning that weather is turning against us for food production. The market tends to focus only on year/year numbers and ignore the trend on a broader perspective.

The USDA 2019 corn harvest had a total production of 13.692 billion bushels, with average yields of 168.0 bushels per acre across 81.5 million acres. This was slightly higher than analysts expected which was about 13.513 billion bushels, based on average yields of 166.2 bushels per acre across 81.350 million harvested acres. USDA’s prior tally was for 13.661 billion bushels, based on yields of 167.0 billion bushels across 81.815 million acres. Nevertheless, the broader trend elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal warning that we may indeed see lower yielding crops as we head into this new Solar Cycle which begins here in 2020 and appears to be poised to be the lowest sun cycle in more than 200 years.

We never elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal in wheat prices. Nevertheless, from the 2016 low, we have elected two Yearly Bullish Reversals. This perspective combined with our models on weather are pointing to higher prices in the years ahead

ECM & the Rise in Intensity into 2032

COMMENT: A suggestion.
I really think the annual Lobby Day in Virginia, scheduled for January 20, should be considered when discussing the turning point in the ECM. The potential for confrontational violence between the state of Virginia and the federal government on one side, and the Second Amendment supporters on the other, is high. This could be bigger than Charlottesville.


REPLY: A lot of people have written in about Virginia and West Virginia has invited the regions in Virginia to separate and join West Virginia. This clash over gun rights as well as the rising separatist movement to join West Virginia is also taking place on the ECM. There appears to be a tremendous issue involving political change coming due all aligned with this ECM turning point, not the least is the Trump Impeachment. Then we have the Russian constitutional crisis. On top of that, we have bubble tops forming in many different markets.

We are experiencing as we move closer to the peak of this 51.6-year wave in 2032, the number of events that are taking place on these turning points will increase. The 1968 turning point marked the second crash in the stock market from the 1000 level in the Dow and the break in the Bretton Woods where they moved to a two-tier gold market – official v free market as gold began trading in London.

The 1972.75 turning point, which was the equivalent to the peak of the next 8.6-year wave in 2024 marked the political turning point in the career of Richard Nixon. The Watergate break-in took place on June 17, 1972, and Woodward first spoke to his contact who became known as Deep Throat the following day – FBI Associate Director Mark Felt.

Felt had been providing leaks from the FBI to Woodward concerning the assassination event of George Wallace running for President in May 1972. The turning point also marked the infamous re-election of Richard Nixon on November 7, 1972. Of course, halfway into that cycle came the impeachment proceedings against Nixon followed by his resignation.


January 1977 marked the inauguration of Jimmy Carter which set the stage for the political reaction that led to the entire rise of “Conservatism” in politics that resulted in Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1980. But 1977 also marked the low in the stock market in terms of book value from the previous wave which had peaked in 1929. It was because of this 1977 change in trend that our computer began to project that Dow would rise to 6,000 in just a few years which became the Takeover Boom.

It was also on that turning point in January 1977 when there was the coldest weather which dipped so far south it remains the only recorded snowfall in Miami Florida. That resulted also in the presumption that there was significant climate change unfolding. But the experts warned we were headed into an Ice Age, not global warming.

The peak of that wave was 1981.35 which market the high in interest rates. Thereafter, rates declined into 1985 but the capital inflows to the dollar sent it to record highs driving even the British pound down to $1.03. That led to the Plaza Accord to try to manipulate the dollar down after it had been driven up by interest rates.


ECM Day is Here


The Economic Confidence Model has marked specific highs and lows in markets to the very day at times depending upon the shifts in capital flows. Why has the business cycle been masked in complexity that has prevented many from comprehending how it functions? I believe this is the result of the average person always attempts to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. What they fail to grasp is the level of complexity involved which incorporates weather, war, innovation, population changes, the migration of people and economies over the face of the earth.

Many people who are against cycles fail to even comprehend that the rise and fall of civilizations have followed the business cycle itself for thousands of years. We are not all-powerful and cannot by our sheer will create a utopia and a perfect future.

The financial capital of the world has migrated which is why all empires, nations, and city-states are buried in a common grave. We all may believe that we are the exception to history, but human nature ensures that corruption will always rise and defeat the best-laid plans of any group.

Even the 911 famous attack on the World Trade Center took place on the specific turning point in 2001.695 to the very day. Not all wars begin precisely on this model, it may reflect when the combination of trends forms to create the decision to go to war which may predate the event by months or years. It is difficult to determine that instant of a decision, but clearly war unfolds as the result of some trend set in motion previously.

The very day that Greece applied to the IMF beginning the European debt crisis took place on a precise day in the ECM. This was the very same position one which the 911 attack took place which resulted in not only the invasion of Iraq, but it altered our way of life forever having to be X-rayed to get on a plane.

The turning point in 1934.05 marked the confiscation of gold whereas the 1985 turning point marked the birth of the G5 and the organized attempt to manipulate the dollar lower. We have the last three waves of that 51.6-year sequences mark the new adoption of socialism following Karl Marx in the USA. This was the beginning of the “progressive” movement which led to the birth of the income tax by 1913.

For example, the Economic Confidence Model also marked the very day of the high on July 20th, 1998 in the US share market from which the Long-Term Capital Management crash began in September. The 1987 turning point picked the very day of the crash and confirmed the low and the capital flow shift which resulted in selling US assets repatriating cash to Japan creating the Bubble on the peak of that wave in 1989.95.

However, sometimes these turning points have been the opposite whereas the geopolitical or economic event comes first and the markets respond secondly to those events in the aftermath.

There have been many events both economically and geopolitically which have aligned with the Economic Confidence Model. There are people who just hate it and try desperately to dismiss this model out of hand because it confirms that any attempt to manipulate the economy by socialists will always fail.

Anyone who attempts to argue against the existence of any business cycle is typically someone who supports the government against the people in true Marxist fashion. Even Paul Volcker’s rare book from 1977 entitled The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle bluntly confirmed that Keynesian economics failed because it was supposed to eliminate recessions and depressions.

While the peak of the wave 2015.75 marked the peak in government and the start of Big Bang, that was certainly reflected by the peak in bond markets and the start of negative interest rates. It marked the very day of Russia troops arriving in Syria which began the refugee crisis into Europe. Merkel’s unilateral decision to allow in the refugees set in motion the rising separatist movements in Europe. The Washington Times wrote on September 10, 2015, “Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” Her decision illustrated that a single leader could alter the course of Europe denying everyone else the right to even vote on her policy.

Then the following year 2016 brought BREXIT and the election of Donald Trump which most people still fail to understand why he was elected. Trump beat all career politicians fulfilling what our model projected back in 1985 that the 2016 election would be the first time a potential third party would take the White House.

We have witnessed the sovereign debt crisis infect states and set in motion the great migration from the highest taxed states to the states with no income taxes like Texas and Florida.

The pension crisis has undermined Illinois and this has spread everywhere. Even in Europe, about 50% of municipalities are in need of bailouts from the federal government. Pensions for government employees have generally been just grants which never required them to contribute anything.

We have witnessed the healthcare costs rise astronomically with Obamacare and Clinton’s handing student to the bankers excluding them from the bankruptcy laws that have devastated the long-term economic prospects as this debt-burdened generation are living with parents into their 30s and are unable to qualify to even buy a home.

Now we head into the bottom of this ECM wave and incredible we see the Trump Impeachment trial begin on the turning point and a constitutional crisis in Russia that will allow Putin to stay in office indefinitely.

We have watched the US stock market rise as the Euro has declined since its 2008 high and capital flows had turned to the dollar.

The questions we must now address are has the stock market reached a temporary high? Will we face the abolishment of money in favor of electronic to prevent bank runs? Will governments seize cryptocurrencies and force the money to be transferred to their own cryptocurrency?

Will climate now turn bittering cold as the next solar cycle which also begins here in 2020 results in food shortages and a rise in commodities?

Welcome to ECM Wave #935. We should expect a very important turning point in 2022 which will market a serious Monetary Crisis. From here on out, the confrontation in government between left and right will intensify and the violence will rise with the rhetoric. Any hope of a responsible government is now extinguished.

The Democrats are facing the collapse of their party. They know they really cannot beat Trump in a fair election, so they have adopted the policy that if you cannot beat him, impeach him. Yet there may be another conspiracy they are up to behind the curtain, and that is to prolong the Impeachment Trial to force the competition against Biden to remain in the Senate for months. There may be an even darker plot at work involving Hillary.

Volcanoes & the Risk During Solar Minimum

COMMENT: Dear Marty,
Thank you so much for warning all for what is coming !

Sorry to keep reflecting on details, you wrote :“The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6- 7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter. The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater.”

VEI is a logaritmic scale, so to create the same impact of one VEI 7, you need 10 VEI 6, 100 VEI 5, 10,000 VEI 4 or 100,000 VEI3. 5 to 6 small eruptions of VEI3 ? won’t do much, sorry hope attached table comes thru high VEI’s not only throw up more dust, ie VEI 6 does 0.003% of the stratosphere volume, VEI 7 0.032%, VEI 8 0.3% and VEI 9 3% high VEI’s do shoot much higher as well; VEI 5 may reach stratosphere; so the impact will not be limited to stratosphere only the frequency extrapolation does tell us a lot about how we can not imagine what could happen where VEI 5 would occur every 12 years, VEI 9 only once 27,000 years do not know where it ends, because it is an extrapolation BUT given the big mass extinctions come in cycles of multiples of 31.4 million years the event probably is much larger than that would it be a significant meteorite impact that triggers many quakes and eruptions ?

REPLY: You are absolutely correct. We do know that there were two volcanoes that erupted which produced the year without a summer. Evidence suggests that this event took place during the Solar Minimum and was predominantly the result of a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia) which was a VEI7. This eruption was probably the largest eruption since the 6th century AD which produced devastation between 535–536 AD. It is believed that the year without a summer was probably enhanced due to the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines which was VEI4.

You are correct that it would probably take a number of smaller eruptions because of the log scale. However, Tambora may not have been sufficient to alter the climate entirely by itself. It is hard to rule out that Mayon, which was only a VEI4, combined with the VEI7 to create the devastation.

However, evidence has been uncovered from around the world that the early Dark Ages of the 6th century AD was most likely triggered by an eruption around 535 AD, which was probably a VEI7+ event. There was a natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions that altered the world and even changed religion. This event created major political, economic and social changes that few people have ever bothered to connect the dots.

It has long been believed that there was probably an eruption from Ilopango in El Salvador. There was probably a second eruption perhaps in Indonesia and may have been Krakatoa.

There was a major volcanic explosion that was equal to more than 2000 Hiroshima size bombs. Human civilization was altered from the Mayan to Mongolia in the north to Constantinople and Southeast Asia. There were devastating plagues, famine, death, and great migration which caused people to move south. Empires and city-states collapsed including Teotihuacan in Mexico, the Anglo-Saxon victory over the Celts and invasions, and it contributed to the rise of Islam. Even in India, we see the Gupta Empire of Northern India collapsed by 543 AD as it too was overrun by the Huna during the mid-6th century. The Sasanian Empire in Persia also peaked during the 6th century.

The political, economic, and religious changes which took place because of this devastating 6th-century volcanic winter were profound. This is what might result from two VEI7s.


VEI km

3 frequency days =years %troposphere plume km km km3 delta
0 0.000001 0.000000003% 0.1 earth 31,879,029
1 0.00001 1 0.0 0.00000003% 0.3
2 0.0001 14 0.0 0.0000003% 1.0
3 0.001 90 0.2 0.000003% 3.2 troposphere 3 31,910,116 31,087
4 0.01 540 1.5 0.00003% 10
5 0.1 4,380 12 0.00032% 32 stratosphere 15 32,024,304 114,188
6 1 18,250 50 0.003% 100 mesosphere 50 32,381,370 357,066
7 10 182,500 500 0.032% 316 thermosphere 85 32,735,345 353,975
8 100 1,500,000 4,110 0.3% 1,000 exosphere 600 38,166,299 5,430,954
9 1,000 10,000,000 27,397 3.2% 3,162
10 10,000 90,000,000 246,575 32.2% 10,000


Carney of Bank of England Claims Climate Change Will Make Pensions Worthless

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney using climate change to claim that pension funds will be worthless? He is just insane or a fraud using this to cover up the pension fund crisis?


ANSWER: There is just no possible way that climate change has anything to do with pensions. We actually have major institutions asking us to generate a theoretical green portfolio that DOES NOT LOSE MONEY just so they can claim they have some “green” in their portfolio.

Any investment in “green” companies has resulted in major losses. So there is no logic to what Carney is saying unless it is a cover-up for the pension crisis that is unfolding. Governments have ordered pension funds to buy government debts and then they take interest rates down to negative. The governments, without climate change, are ensuring that pensions will be worthless. It seems that he is using climate change as the excuse for the pension system failure.

He is clearly demonstrating what the elites think of the people – just stupid!

The Climate Change of the 1840s

QUESTION: OK, you have shown articles from the 1930s and 1970s where they talked about climate change. So are you saying that people have always been talking about climate change for decades? This is not something new I presume.


ANSWER: The climate has always changed. Even during the 1840s when there was a major Sovereign Debt Crisis in the USA, there was also the issue of climate change. Here is an article from Australia back in 1846 speaking about climate change.

Here we have Climate Change being discussed in the United States also in 1846. The comment was that they saw all four seasons in a single day.

There is nothing new. You can search the newspapers and find periods during which climate change was being discussed. Here during 1846, this is when the earth was still coming out of the Little Ice Age. There too they were talking about climate change.

Climate has ALWAYS changed.  I  do not see how we can suddenly pretend it has never changed and since it is, OMG, we must have caused it

Is Climate Change Dispute the Same As the Fall of Rome?

Climate Change has become a fanatical religion because there is no proof and it rests entirely on belief. This is taking on the traits of the religious dispute which marked the fall of Rome – Pagans v Christianity. Like the Pagans, they immediately attack anyone who dares to disagree with them and they will not tolerate even a discussion. That was very much the same tactics employed by the Pagans.

What is clear is that the volcanic activity is increasing thanks to Solar Minimum. We now have another eruption going on in Mexico the residents call “El Popo.” This is the most active volcano in Mexico. It is not expected to be extremely dangerous. The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6-7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter.

The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater. The accumulative impact could be similar insofar it causes crop failures and thus a significant impact on agricultural prices. This is also concerning given the rise in earthquake activity in the Caribbean.

Recently, the Viking Rök stone, which is an ancient five-ton granite slab erected in southern Sweden sometime during the 9th century AD, has recently been translated after stumping scientists for more than 100 years. It turns out that it is referring to climate change when crops failed during the 6th century AD. We know that during the 6th century, there was a major climate catastrophic event which resulted in 50% of the population of Scandinavia starved to death. This event during the 6th century was a major volcanic event that devastated the human population globally.

We have further documentation of a major volcanic event also recorded during the reign of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian. There was a truly tumultuous period where the climate turned violent with a volcanic winter, which enabled his many conquests as less organized societies were unable to cope with the effects. There was a mysterious fog that plunged over Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia casting them into darkness. This catastrophic event lasted for 18 months. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.”  Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.

The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also a solar minimumwhich seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.

With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more suspectable to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.

My concern is we are headed into a Solar Minimum which may be the steepest since the Little Ice Age of 200 years or more. The climate change fanatics have risen their claims to the level of a virtual religious belief. Even the Royal Family of British has split with Harry and his wife claiming they are “progressive” and have also bought into the whole human-caused climate change.

These climate activists will not listen to reason. They immediately seek to attack and demonize anyone who dares to oppose them. They have weaseled into governments and  DAVOS using a 16-year-old girl they dare to present as a climate authority.

The extreme antics of the Climate Activists seem to be adopting the hostile role of the Pagans during the fall of the Roman Empire. They too were claiming that society was doomed because the Christians would not worship their gods and the gods were angry. The climate was turning colder which was indeed resulting in mass migrations south as the Romans called them the barbarians.

We seem to be experiencing the same sort of division with intense hatred being hurled at anyone who seeks to argue against the Climate Activists. Religion is declining and progressivism (Marxism) is rising and the core of the Climate Activists is to destroy modern society blaming the Industrial Revolution for the entire warming period post-1850 which was the normal cyclical rise from the Little Ice Age.

Image result for chart of solar minimum and maximum roman empire

This is a very similar clash that divided the Roman Empire and set its final decline in motion. Here we are once again headed into Solar Minimum with the risk of cold weather resulting in serious mass starvation.

The Maya originally also declined into the 6th century AD, and then as the climate began to improve after the Volcanic Winter of the 6th century, this is when the Maya constructed Chichen Itza which was a major ceremonial focal point in the Northern Maya Lowlands from the Late Classic (c. 600–900AD). This became the only place where human sacrifices seemed to have taken place and they were most likely to appease the gods after the devastation of the 6th century AD. One life was offered to save thousands.


Australia Fires – Nature or Global Warming?

QUESTION: Hello Martin,
I have been following your blog for a number of years and enjoy your more analyzed perspective on climate change. I am not fully convinced man [that] is causing the changes and I’d like to hear your opinion about the Australian fires. Living here in and amongst the carnage of the fires and the severe drought, it is hard to ignore all the arguments for climate change being a factor.
Kind regards,

ANSWER: It is very easy for the global warming crowd to make claims that every hot day proves their theory or that a drought in Australia is the result of CO2. They offer ZERO historical evidence to support their claims. They simply make claims that this is the hottest year so that proves it is CO2.

I just published the earthquake data for the Caribbean. There has been a sharp increase in activity with solar minimum. All they would have to do is show the correlation. But they never do because there is zero evidence to support climate change is human induced. If that were true, then the data should reveal that there were no such events prior to the Industrial Revolution. They also ignore the historical record that shows climate has always changed. They do not even try to address those issues and the mainstream press just prints their claims as if they are uncontested facts without the slightest investigation.

There have been red tides that kill fish. Immediately, they blame farmers and chemicals. There are no farmers near me and there are no such chemicals that spill into the ocean from farming. All you have to do is Google it and you will see that the first recorded fish kill was 1648. There were reports of red tides in the Caribbean as early as 1530 (see: Red Tides HistoryKarenia brevis).

Australia has a history of droughts and bush fires. I have lived there and been to absolutely every area. The most well known of these are the Federation drought (1895-1903), the World War II drought (1939-45), and the recent Millennium drought (1997-2009). All three droughts were devastating to agriculture and the broader economy.

As far as major wildfires, they too predate the Industrial Revolution. There was the 1850-1851 Black Thursday bush fires of February 6th, 1851 in Victoria. That event resulted in burning the second largest area (approximately 5,000,000 hectares (12,000,000 acres)) in European-recorded history. That fire killed 12 people, but more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle. The current wildfire has reached 4.9 million hectares in NSW. Again, this is not something that is totally unknown or unprecedented. They do run the risk of making a new record high, but that does not prove that CO2 is the cause.

There was also the 1897-1898 Red Tuesday bush fire of February 1st, 1898 in Victoria. That engulfed 260,000 hectares (640,000 acres) and some 2000 buildings were destroyed.

These activists claim everything is CO2 without any evidence whatsoever and people accept whatever they just say. I can claim I sold the very high in the Dow in 1929 and bought the day of the low in 1932. Can you imagine if the press just repeated that claim without ever bothering to check to see if I was alive back then?

Nature itself demonstrates that these people are outright liars. The Amitermes meridionalis species are termites that are native to the northern part of Northern Territory of Australia, around Darwin. They build mounds that are typically 13 ft tall to survive both floods and bush fires. The animals have developed strategies to survive both floods and fires because they are historically common and not some new development post-1850 and the industrial revolution.

Even the giant redwood trees in California where bush fires are also common have adapted to the environment. They will grow burls which come to life in the event of a fire and can regrow the tree.

In Australia and California, which are both prone to bush fires, the plant and animal life have evolved over hundreds of years to adapt to wildfires. This does not support the claims that the fires in Australia are because of CO2. Everyone demands proof that this is not caused by CO2 instead of demanding that they support their wild claims with at least some correlation study