South Africa’s Power Grid is Failing

Armstrong Economics Blog/Africa Re-Posted Mar 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

South Africa is desperate for allies, economic allies. The country is failing and the people are suffering. There is international outrage right now misdirected at South Africa for its desire to host the Bric summit with Russia, China, Brazil, and India. The International Criminal Court (ICC) wants to arrest Putin for his war crimes, and President Cyril Ramaphosa is defending his position to invite Putin before the invitations for the event have even gone out. I warned that countries who were previously banned from discussions at the big table would turn to China and Russia for support since the West has abandoned them. “What about Ukraine!” the media cries. Well, what about South Africa? No one comments that the conditions in South Africa are WORSE than in Ukraine during an active war.

South Africa was in a bad spot economically long before COVID. GDP grew by a mere 1% between 2012 and 2021, according to the World Bank. The nation’s entire infrastructure is crumbling, and the power grid is on the verge of complete failure. Blackouts are common, and many blame state-owned power plant Eskom which routinely cuts off the power grid to produce “rolling blackouts” to conserve power. These “rolling blackouts” can last over 12 hours. This affects fuel availability, phone and internet coverage, traffic lights, power to hospitals, etc. It also limits the availability of food and water. Crime is more prevalent during blackouts as there are no cameras or security systems. Rape and crimes against women are disgustingly common. Civil unrest is so prevalent that the president issued a “state of disaster” warning on February 9, long after the situation became irreparable.

(click on the image for higher resolution)

Statistics vary but there are about 82 murders per day in South Africa. The South African Police Service reported 7,555 murders from October to December 2022. As you can see from the chart above, crime is rapidly escalating. People are murdering farmers and anyone with a surplus of food. “Most murders take place in a public place, such as a street or an open field or a parking area – or at the residence of the victim (including places known to the victim or perpetrator),” Business Tech reported. “The Purge” is essentially taking place in South Africa right now.

So what is the world police doing about this situation since they care so much about helpless nations? NothingThe US government issued a warning that Eskom’s power grid will collapse. They are warning that there will be no water, sewage pumps, or fuel, and the nation will effectively come to a standstill. Eskom said that in the “best case scenario,” it would take 6 to 14 days to restart the power grid. Experts believe it will take longer if they can manage to restore the power at all. “What’s left after a blackout would be what was left after a civil war,” an anonymous source said.

Poverty and the ongoing conflict have destroyed South Africa. The media would like people to believe that the nation is an enemy of the West because it is remaining neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. How exactly is it supposed to offer any aid when its own people are starving? The West even had the audacity to ask South Africa to support the climate change agenda, as if they have access to stable energy. One can only hope that the Bric summit is permitted this year and Xi and Putin can offer aid to South Africa’s people.

A Technical Study of Relationships in Solar Flux, Water and other Gasses in the upper Atmosphere, Using the Feburary, 2023 NASA & NOAA Data

The attached report on Global Weather for February 2023 Data we have a charts showing the relationship we tween CO2 growth and Temperature increases going up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958? These Charts by plotting showing CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about 32.9% from 1958 to January of 2023. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is about .3% and may reach .5% by 2028. To even be able to see this minuscule change we had to change the scale of the CO2 axis by a factor of ten.

This Chart 8 uses unaltered values from NOAA and NASA properly displayed ,and the Blue and Yellow projections are created by Microsoft Excel not me.

The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the story of the Changes in the planets Atmosphere As Carbon Dioxide go up

The attached 40 page report explains how this chart was developed .

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What Will our Collective Future Look Like in the Year 2050? Part Two, the Result of The Great Reset and Build Back Better

The picture below is a good visual example of what those that want to rule us i.e. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, George Soros, Barack Obama and yes even Anthony Fauci would like it to be. I do not, for one second, think this is an exaggeration.  

Obviously, this is not a picture that any one that is not a multi billionaire would want to experience but there is one person on the planet that demands that this is what our future will be. That person is Klaus Schwab the creator of the World Economic Form (WEF). So what is the WEF? The WEF is an international non-government organization (NGO) founded by Klaus Schwab on January 24, 1971and located in Switzerland. The stated goal is to improving the status of the entire world. This is accomplished by training potential Global leaders on how best to rule the world and conducting an annual meeting in Davos Switzerland.  

Klaus Schwab’s Master Program

Klaus fist related book published in 2016 was The fourth Industrial Revolution where he predicted a future where AL, Robots and biotech advances would create a new world with wonderful things in it. I think during the years prior to publishing the book Bill Gates got involved with Schwab and they used the Marxist take over of the Environmental movement of Global and dangerous climate change as the tool to scare the population into agreeing to make radial change in energy production by switching from fossil fuel to wind and solar called “Green Energy” for short.

Klaus Schwab enlisted French economist Thierry Malleret to help him develop the plan for the New World Order that Schwab wanted to create and as I understand it Malleret help Schwab to develop his “Stakeholder Capitalism” with a new monetary system called “Modern Monetary Theory” or MMT. These were some of the key elements along with of his predictive advances in technology that would allow his New World Order (utopia) to actually work. This was all published the book COVID-19 The Great REST in 2020 just after the COVID-19. Also helping Schwab was Bill Gates who was getting into politics after leaving Microsoft. However, since he made a fortune while running the company he as now a multi-Billionaire.

I became aware of Gates’ plans for the world around 2005/6 after watching some of his TED talks, At that tome he was promoting net Zero CO2 emissions and showed an equation sowing how it could be done. Below is an image from Gates explaining it he theories about climate change. The following image it gates’ not mine.

Keep in mind that Gates’ view is the the wolds population need to be under One Billion which means that 90% of the worlds population must disappear. The remaining 10% would get all the energy from Green sources; however, since people bread out CO2 there is no way to ever get to net Zero. Some time between the end of Obama’s presidency and the start of the Trump Presidency all the Gates’ TED talks prior to 2010 on this subject disappeared only the newer ones that were less threatening were still there.

Part Three will continue the discussion.

Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything

Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. The man was Alan Turing. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You can watch the movie The Imitation Game to get a general idea of his achievement.

But Turing did something even far more astonishing. He had a theory that within nature, what appears to be chaos was just a mask that hides a natural order. He was the first to think that there might be a mathematical order that defines nature. There is a mysterious aspect of Morphogenesis. All the cells in an embryo are identical. Then the cells begin to clump together and actually become different from each other. The mystery was how identical cells know to form different things such as skin, eyes, brain, or bone. There is no central command center.

Turing 1952 Morphogenesis

The phenomenon of Morphogenesis is what is the essence of mystery. This process becomes self-organization. Before Turning, absolutely nobody had any idea of how this process even worked. It was also a great mystery of life itself. It was Turning who published on March 15th, 1952, the Ides of March 3.14, his mathematical explanation of Morphogenesis. Turning’s formula was revealing for it uncovered a secret order behind the mask of chaos. Despite being one of the most brilliant minds ever and all his contributions even breaking the German code, because he was a homosexual, a judge order him to prison or subject him to hormone injections to cure him. He committed suicide on June 7th, 1954 because of the abuse of the government which ignored all his contributions.

What Turning discovered in nature, was that there is a hidden order in which identical cells then change and become specific parts of the end result without any specific coding. What would appear to be simplistic formulas, suddenly emerged into a complexity that baffled the human mind. This is what I discovered in economics. A secret cycle that defines the complexity which we also cannot see with the naked eye.

This is why different cycles unfold in all the sectors such as metals, commodities, share markets, currency, bonds, etc, and when they align that is when we get the superposition events. I will explain more in my forthcoming book on the Economic Confidence Model. One bubble will be in the real estate markets, such as 1792 and 2007-2009. Other bubbles took place in commodities such as in 1919. Still, others took place in currency markets and capital concentration such as the 1989 peak in the Nikkei in Japan or the 1929 bubble in the USA.

In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.

Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.

I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honestly, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.

As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.

We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance and they are NOT backing down.

God help humanity!

Financial Crisis of 2023

Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, I think your warning about the collapse of leadership in government and the private sector rings true as Ken Griffin, the founder of hedge fund Citadel, said the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank shows the U.S. economic system is “breaking down before our eyes” because they bailed out the depositors. Yet Carl Icahn seems to agree with your saying that the U.S. economy is at a breaking point because of inflation. He said, “every hegemony has been destroyed by inflation.”

Very few so-called billionaires seem to understand what’s at stake. It makes me think they were just lucky in how they made their money. After Griffin’s comment, I would not be inclined to invest in Citadel. Then a group of banks is talking about depositing $20 to $30 billion to save Republic bank.

Is there any hope for the future when leadership is absent in these times of chaos?


QUESTION #2: Thanks for everything you do. At the WEC, you warned about banks and even the big funds. The turning point was at the end of January here in 2023. Is it possible that this financial crisis will be the major factor even overpowering war when the ECM comes into play by April 10th?


ANSWER: Anyone who does not understand that inflation is a natural occurrence when you get into a war is clearly not a student of history and has no business being the CEO of even the head local dog-catcher. The Roman deity Janus, after whom January is named, was the two face entity who looked at the past and the future. The doors to his temple would be closed when there was peace. That symbolized that nothing was at risk of changing. However, in times of war,  they would leave the doors open to symbolize the uncertainty of war that the spirits could flow in and out.

Only today, do we seem to no longer respect that the cost of war is both lives lost and inflation for those who survive. This Ukrainian Proxy War serves no purpose. Winning or losing will have ZERO impact on our national security or the future of the people. This is simply a grudge match instigated by the Neocons who perpetually love war as long as someone else is dying for their personal goals. To them, it is nothing more than watching a war on CNN and cheering as if it were a football game.

I have said that this war will undermine the entire US economy and that is now manifesting in the Financial Crisis of 2023 which will be far worse than any of these people expect. The lack of experience and the stupidity of those who remark that capitalism is collapsing because they are honoring the depositors is absurd. A depositor has NO WAY of understanding the financial status of a bank until it is too late. They receive no warning and yet there are those who say they should suffer the losses because that is capitalism.

Sorry, but that has NOTHING to do with capitalism. It is no different than FRAUD soliciting money with a false pretense. Investing in a hedge fund like Citadel is different from a bank. Depositors in a hedge fund know they are investing their money and they are getting a piece of that return. That is capitalism. Someone who has a bank account where their social security check is automatically deposited took on no such risk. Sorry – that is different that a hedge fund that goes bust.

The problem we have is that the ECM turning point is April 10th. Yet it is also the Pi Target from the fall of the USSR and the birth of even Ukraine. We just had Poland losing their mind and sending jets to Ukraine. That makes Poland a viable target for war. Poland is irresponsible given the fact that the Ukrainians slaughtered over 300,000 of them and has refused to ever apologize for their WWII Nazi involvement.

We have a problem here with the Financial Crisis simultaneously with important cyclical targets regarding war. Any personal interpretation I can offer is just a personal opinion. Both trends are colliding into April and this may be a two-prong panic of unprecedented significance.

EU Central Bank Raises Rates Again Despite Weakened Banking Concerns – Supporting Climate Change and Assisting Central Bank Digital Currency Creation Most Important

Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance 

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates again today, while simultaneously promising to support further bank bailouts that might come as an outcome of raising the rates again.   In the bigger picture there are two dynamics supported by the ECB playing out.

The first issue is the ideological effort to change the economic models based on climate change.  The Build Back Better (Green New Deal) policy, a traditional energy production control effort, is being supported by the ECB effort to shrink the EU economy to meet the rate of diminished energy production.  Make the economy smaller to meet the lower energy production rate.

Lowered energy production (oil, coal and natural gas) has raised energy prices; this is the fuel behind supply side inflation.  The Western policy created energy inflation is hitting every aspect of the EU, US and western global economy.  The prices of all downstream goods and services have risen dramatically as a result.  The European banks are not going to stop trying to make the economy smaller just because banks are failing.  That brings us to the second issue.

Like the first issue with BBB controls, the World Economic Forum action plan for government also includes the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).  The collapsing of the traditional banking system supports the agenda to create CBDCs.  Raising interest rates puts more pressure on already weak banks.  This is a feature not a flaw of the intent.

Shifting the economy from traditional oil, coal and natural gas is one aspect (climate change).  Shifting the banking system from traditional currency to central bank digital currencies is the second aspect (total govt financial control).   The banking instability is the crisis that facilitates the CBDC solution.   Ergo, continue raising rates and continue making the crisis more useful.

In the bigger picture, this is an ideological quest to fundamentally change the western economic model.  Support for that change is what we are witnessing as the EU central banks continue raising rates.  Ultimately, banks being controlled by government is the necessary step to achieve the second phase of the larger plan.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a half-percentage point while promising emergency support for eurozone banks if needed, showing the policy makers’ balancing act as they seek to combat high inflation without aggravating strains in the financial system.

The ECB said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 3%, following consecutive half-point rate increases in February and December. The 50 basis-point rise surprised analysts who had expected a smaller uptick given the tense market situation after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled the bank would be cautious about further rate increases, while stressing it stood ready to provide fresh liquidity to banks. Policy makers will make future rate decisions based on coming economic data, she said, a change from previously announcing plans for rate increases months in advance.

“It’s not business as usual,” Ms. Lagarde said. “It is not possible at this point in time…to determine what the path will be going forward.” (read more)

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Fed/Treasury plan is to do essentially the same thing by supporting the big banks with over $2 trillion in available backstop funding.  The Fed is celebrating the big banks supporting the smaller banks.  Ultimately, this is the banking system downsizing and getting more control with less players.

Washington, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu:

Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system.  (LINK)

The implementation of a U.S. digital currency will become easier if there are fewer players in the banking system.  WATCH:

The US Blows Hot And Cold

  •   Sunday, March 12, 2023

Watts Up With That?

The world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change

Land Surface Air Temperature Data

The US Blows Hot And Cold

1 day ago

Willis Eschenbach


Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I got to thinking about the raw unadjusted temperature station data. Despite the many flaws in individual weather stations making up the US Historical Climate Network (USHCN), as revealed by Anthony Watts’ SurfaceStations project, the USHCN is arguably one of the best country networks. So I thought I’d take a look at what it reveals.

The data is available here, with further information about the dataset here. The page says:

UNITED STATES HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK (USHCN) Daily Dataset M.J. Menne, C.N. Williams, Jr., and R.S. Vose National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

These files comprise CDIAC’s most current version of USHCN daily data.

These appear to be the raw, unhomogenized, unadjusted daily data files. Works for me. I started by looking at the lengths of the various records.

Figure 1. Lengths of the 1,218 USHCN temperature records. The picture shows a “Stevenson Screen”, the enclosure used to protect the instruments from direct sunlight so that they are measuring actual air temperature.

This is good news. 97.4% of the temperature records are longer than 30 years, and 99.7% are longer than 20 years. So I chose to use them all.

Next, I considered the trends of the minimum and maximum temperatures. I purposely did not consider the mean (average) trend, for a simple reason. We experience the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the warmest and coldest times of the day. But nobody ever experiences an average temperature. It’s a mathematical construct. And I wanted to look at what we actually can sense and feel.

First I considered minimum temperatures. I began by looking at which stations were warming and which were cooling. Figure 2 shows that result.

Figure 2. USHCN minimum temperature trends by station. White is cooling, red is warming.

Interesting. Clearly, “global” warming isn’t. The minimum temperature at 30% of the USHCN stations is getting colder, not warmer. However, overall, the median trend is still warming. Here’s a histogram of the minimum temperature trends.

Figure 3. Histogram of 1,218 USHCN minimum temperature trends. See Menne et al. for estimates of what the various adjustments would do to this raw data.

Overall, the daily minimum temperatures have been warming. However, they’re only warming at a median rate of 1.1°C per century … hardly noticeable. And I have to say that I’m not terrified of warmer nights, particularly since most of the warmer nights are occurring in the winter. In my youth, I spent a couple of winter nights sleeping on a piece of cardboard on the street in New York, with newspapers wrapped around my legs under my pants for warmth.

I can assure you that I would have welcomed a warmer nighttime temperature …

The truth that climate alarmists don’t want you to notice is that extreme cold kills far more people than extreme warmth. A study in the British Medical Journal The Lancet showed that from 2000 to 2019, extreme cold killed about four and a half million people per year, and extreme warmth only killed a half million.

Figure 4. Excess deaths from extreme heat and cold, 2000-2019

So I’m not worried about an increase in minimum temperatures—that can only reduce mortality for plants, animals, and humanoids alike.

But what about maximum temperatures? Here are the trends of the USHCN stations as in Figure 2, but for maximum temperatures.

Figure 5. USHCN maximum temperature trends by station. White is cooling, red is warming.

I see a lot more white. Recall from Figure 2 that 30% of minimum temperature stations are cooling. But with maximum temperatures, about half of them are cooling (49.2%).

And here is the histogram of maximum temperatures. Basically, half warming, half cooling.

Figure 6. Histogram of 1,218 USHCN maximum temperature trends.

For maximum temperatures, the overall median trend is a trivial 0.07°C per century … color me unimpressed.

Call me crazy, but I say this is not any kind of an “existential threat”, “problem of the century”, or “climate emergency” as is often claimed by climate alarmists. Instead, it is a mild warming of the nights and no warming of the days. In fact, there’s no “climate emergency” at all.

And if you are suffering from what the American Psychiatric Association describes as “the mental health consequences of events linked to a changing global climate including mild stress and distress, high-risk coping behavior such as increased alcohol use and, occasionally, mental disorders such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress” … well, I’d suggest you find a new excuse for your alcoholism, anxiety, or depression. That dog won’t hunt.

My very best to everyone from a very rainy California. When we had drought over the last couple of years, people blamed evil “climate change” … and now that we’re getting lots of rain, guess what people are blaming?

Yep, you guessed it.


As Always: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words you’re discussing. This avoids endless misunderstandings.

Adjustments: This raw data I’ve used above is often subjected to several different adjustments, as discussed here. One of the largest adjustments is for the time of observation, usually referred to as TOBS. The effect of the TOBS adjustment is to increase the overall trend in maximum temperatures by about 0.15°C per century (±0.02) and in minimum temperatures by about 0.22°C per century (±0.02). So if you wish, you can add those values to the trends shown above. Me, I’m not too fussed about an adjustment of a tenth or two of a degree per century, I’m not even sure if the network can measure to that level of precision. And it certainly is not perceptible to humans.

There are also adjustments for “homogeneity”, for station moves, instrument changes, and changes in conditions surrounding the instrument site.

Are these adjustments all valid? Unknown. For example, the adjustments for “homgeneity” assume that one station’s record should be similar to a nearby station … but a look at the maps above show that’s not the case. I know that where I live, it very rarely freezes. But less than a quarter mile (1/8 km) away, on the opposite side of the hill, it freezes a half-dozen times a year or so … homogeneous? I don’t think so.

The underlying problem is that in almost all cases there is no overlap in the pre- and post-change records. This makes it very difficult to determine the effects of the changes directly, and so indirect methods have to be used. There’s a description of the method for the TOBS adjustment here.

This also makes it very hard to estimate the effect of the adjustments. For example:

To calculate the effect of the TOB adjustments on the HCN version 2 temperature trends, the monthly TOB adjusted temperatures at each HCN station were converted to an anomaly relative to the 1961–90 station mean. Anomalies were then interpolated to the nodes of a 0.25° × 0.25° latitude–longitude grid using the method described by Willmott et al. (1985). Finally, gridpoint values were area weighted into a mean anomaly for the CONUS for each month and year. The process was then repeated for the unadjusted temperature data, and a difference series was formed between the TOB adjusted and unadjusted data.

To avoid all of that uncertainty, I’ve used the raw unadjusted data. 

Addendum Regarding The Title: There’s an Aesop’s Fable, #35:

“A Man had lost his way in a wood one bitter winter’s night. As he was roaming about, a Satyr came up to him, and finding that he had lost his way, promised to give him a lodging for the night, and guide him out of the forest in the morning. As he went along to the Satyr’s cell, the Man raised both his hands to his mouth and kept on blowing at them. ‘What do you do that for?’ said the Satyr. ‘My hands are numb with the cold,’ said the Man, ‘and my breath warms them.’ After this they arrived at the Satyr’s home, and soon the Satyr put a smoking dish of porridge before him. But when the Man raised his spoon to his mouth he began blowing upon it. ‘And what do you do that for?’ said the Satyr. ‘The porridge is too hot, and my breath will cool it.’ ‘Out you go,’ said the Satyr, ‘I will have nought to do with a man who can blow hot and cold with the same breath.’”

The actual moral of the story is not the usual one that people draw from the fable, that the Man is fickle and the Satyr can’t trust him.

The Man is not fickle. His breath is always the same temperature … but what’s changing are the temperatures of his surroundings, just as they have been changing since time immemorial.

We call it “weather”.

The test that exonerates CO2

The test that exonerates CO2

6 days ago

Guest Blogger


By Javier Vinós

Most people don’t have a clear understanding of the greenhouse effect (GHE). It is not complicated to understand, but it is usually not well explained. It is often described as “heat-trapping,” but that is incorrect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) do not trap heat, even if more heat resides within the climate system due to their presence in the atmosphere. The truth is that after adjusting to a change in GHG levels, the planet still returns all the energy it receives from the Sun. Otherwise, it would continue warming indefinitely. So, there is no change in the energy returned. How do GHGs produce GHE?

GHGs cause the atmosphere to be more opaque to infrared radiation. As solar radiation heats mainly the ocean and land surface of the planet, GHGs absorb thermal emission from the surface at the lower troposphere and immediately pass that energy along to other molecules (typically N2 and O2) through collisions that occur much faster than the time it would take to re-emit the radiation. This warms the lower troposphere. The density and temperature decrease rapidly through the troposphere, so molecules are colder and more separated at the upper troposphere. Now GHGs have a chance to emit IR radiation so when they finally collide with another molecule, they are colder so GHGs have a cooling effect in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

Because GHGs make the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, when they are present the emission to space from the planet normally does not take place from the surface (as happens in the Moon). Part of it still takes place from the surface through the atmospheric window, but most of it takes place from higher in the atmosphere. We can define a theoretical effective emission height as the average height at which the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is being emitted. The temperature at which the Earth emits is the temperature at the effective emission height in the atmosphere. That temperature, when measured from space is 250 K (-23°C), not 255 which is the calculated temperature for a theoretical blackbody Earth. That temperature corresponds to a height of about 5 km, which we call the effective emission height.

The last piece we need to understand the GHE is the lapse rate, which in the troposphere is positive, meaning that temperature decreases with height. Without a positive lapse rate, the GHE does not work. Since GHGs cause the planet to emit from a higher altitude, due to making the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, that altitude is colder due to the lapse rate. The Earth still needs to return all the energy received from the Sun, but colder molecules emit less. So, the planet will go through a period when it will emit less than it should, warming the surface and the lower troposphere until the new height of emission achieves the temperature necessary to return all the energy, at which point the planet stops warming.

The GHE simply states that the temperature at the surface (Ts) is just the temperature of emission (Te) plus the lapse rate (Γ) times the height of emission (Ze).

Ts = Te + ΓZe

Held & Soden (2000) illustrated it in figure 1:

This is how the GHE actually works. An increase in CO2 means an increase in the height of emission. Since the temperature of emission must remain the same, the temperature from the surface to the new height of emission must increase. The increase is small but significant. As Held and Soden say:

“The increase in opacity due to a doubling of CO2 causes Ze to rise by ≈150 meters. This results in a reduction in the effective temperature of the emission across the tropopause by ≈(6.5K/km) (150 m) ≈1 K.”Held and Soden

So, the temperature at the surface must increase by 1K. That’s the direct warming caused by the doubling of CO2, before the feedbacks (mainly water vapor) kick in, further raising the height of emission.

This also has an interesting prediction. If the warming is due to an increase in CO2 when the increase takes place and the altitude of emission increases, the planet should emit less OLR as the new altitude is colder and a reduced OLR is the warming mechanism. Once the warming takes place, the OLR will become the same as before the GHG increase. It says so in Held and Soden’s figure 1 caption: “Note that the effective emission temperature (Te) remains unchanged.” Same Te, same OLR. So, if CO2 is responsible for the surface temperature increase, we should first expect less OLR and then the same OLR. If at any time we detect more OLR that would indicate another cause for the warming. Anything that makes the surface warmer, except GHGs, will increase the temperature of emission, increasing OLR.

So, this is the test:

– Surface warming but less or same OLR: CO2 is guilty as charged

– Surface warming and more OLR: CO2 is innocent

And the test results can be evaluated for example with Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018:

“decadal changes of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) as measured by the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System from 2000 to 2018, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment from 1985 to 1998, and the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder from 1985 to 2018 are analyzed. The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature.Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018

CO2 is innocent. Its fingerprint is not found at the crime scene. Something else is warming the planet and causing the increase in OLR.


Dewitte, S. and Clerbaux, N., 2018. Decadal changes of earth’s outgoing longwave radiation. Remote Sensing, 10(10), p.1539.

Held, I.M. and Soden, B.J., 2000. Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annual review of energy and the environment, 25(1), pp.441-475.

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Markets & Starlings

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Mar 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin,

Your blog, “Model & the 1991 Collapse of the USSR” for me was a major thought process change. I believed in the Random Walk down Wallstreet, not any more.

The chaos model example of the Dow Jones reminds me of the migration of the starlings – link attached.

I had a pet Starling, a very smart bird, who loved my computer and even pecked on my keyboard and accidentally sent an email one time.

I have even observed butterflies flying against the wind on a windy day by navigating within the calm currents of the wind.

Thank you for showing the pattern of the market.


REPLY:  It is truly amazing but there are so many aspects within nature that confirm NOTHING is random – there is a cyclical nature to everything thing. Here are the five Brain Wave patterns. If there is no cycle in your brain – you are dead. So I am always astonished by people who do not believe in cycles and think there really is such a thing as random walks. We need those people because they are the fools who are easier to separate from their money. They love to buy the high and sell the low. Thank you very much. Keep believing it’s random and the government is really Santa Claus.

And for those flat-word folks who didn’t believe that the earth actually was in a cyclical orbit around the sun, how absurd, don’t forget to put a mask on when you drive alone or when you sleep alone make sure you also put on a condom just to be really safe.

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?

I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.

If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!


ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.

People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.

When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.

In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.

I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.

I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it  – The Secret Cycle.