Iran & War


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for Iran back in 2012 has been correct. It picked 2016 which in January the International economic sanctions on Iran were lifted after UN said it was satisfied with progress on fulfilling the nuclear agreement. President Rouhani then embarked on the first European state visit of an Iranian president for 16 years. But that same month is when the serious rift in relations took place after Saudi Arabia executed a leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. During May 2017,  Hassan Rouhani won re-election as president.= and by June that is when there was a co-ordinated attack on parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. That is when the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. That sparked major protests in December 2017 over economic grievances. The next year in 2018, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran in turn warned that it will begin increasing its uranium enrichment capacity if the deal collapses as a result of the US move.

I have followed your report and it has been truly remarkable for someone that is covering the entire world. My question is now, your array showed the 2016 turning point which was amazing, but it also showed 2020. There are increasing tensions once again. Do you have an update on this forecast?

Thank you

ABSR

ANSWER: There is a rising tide in Iran toward a confrontation. In February 2020, the hardliners scored big wins in parliamentary elections, but this was with a record low turnout of only 42.6% while any moderate would-be candidates were barred from running for not meeting strict eligibility criteria.

Back in 2013, the State Department blew everyone away after admitting that they officially and intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing to mislead the press over the Iranian nuclear deal under the Obama Administration. Then in 2o16, Iran also tried to sell oil in euros in a futile attempt to end oil’s link to the dollar. They clearly failed to understand this was not a SERIOUS blow to the USA, but in fact, they took on the currency risk of the euro and lost.

It appears that 2020 is the low for oil and we should see tension rise sharply with Iran which will help oil into 2024.

Wind Turbine Disposal Issues


Jack Dini image

Re-Posted from the Canada Free Press By  —— Bio and ArchivesApril 3, 2020

Wind Turbine Disposal IssuesNo one seemed to consider what to do with the massive amount of wind turbine blades once they reached the end of their lifespan. Thus, the irony of the present day Green Energy Movement is the dumping of thousands of tons of non-recyclable supposedly renewable wind turbine blades in the country’s landfills. 1

Wind turbine blades slated for waste disposal is forecast to quadruple over the next fifteen years

What’s even worse is that the amount of wind turbine blades slated for waste disposal is forecast to quadruple over the next fifteen years as a great deal more blades reach their 15-20 year lifespan. Furthermore, the size and length of the newly installed wind turbine blades are now twice as large as they were 20-30 years ago.

The wind turbine blades are a toxic amalgam of unique composites, fiberglass, epoxy, polyvinyl chloride foam, polyethylene terephthlate foam, balsa wood and polyurethane coatings. So, basically, there is just too much plastic-composite-epoxy material that isn’t worth recycling.  1

More than 720,000 tons of blade material will be disposed of over then next 20 years in the United States—a figure that does not include newer, taller higher-capacity turbines. Disposal of these blades—a byproduct of increasing wind generation—is becoming a growing problem.  2

A typical wind turbine has a foundation, a tower, a nacelle and three blades. The foundation is made from concrete, the tower is made from steel or concrete, the nacelle is made mainly from steel and copper, the blades are the most environmentally problematic at end of life since there are currently no established industrial recycling routes for them. Disposal at the end of life cycle must be considered but has been lacking. 3

Germany now has 29,000 wind towers. The nightmare of scrapping and decontamination has already started, with 250MW decommissioned last yer. Close to 10,000 towers must be decommissioned by 2023. One tactic has been to ship the toxic parts and rubble to African states to deal with the problem. 4

Other wind turbines have a six-figure decommissioning costs

There’s some public record material about decommissioning US wind farms, and it’s not reassuring. In Minnesota, the ten year old Nobles Wind farm has 134 turbines of about 1.5MW and is operated by Xeel Energy. Xeel estimates the cost for scrapping each turbine at up to $530,000 or $71 million total. Each turbine has a tip height of 120 metes. Just to scrap one 40m blade, involves crunching composite material weighing more than 6 tons.

As American Experiment points out, even $71 million doesn’t finance a thorough clean-up. The contracts oblige Xeel to restore the land to a depth of only about one meter, whereas the foundations go down 5 meters. Moreover, underneath the 56 square miles of this Minnesota wind farm is 140 km of cabling and pipes. The documents don’t say if the cables would stay or go. (4)

Other wind turbines have a six-figure decommissioning costs as well. According to utility documents for the Palmer’s Creek wind facility in Chippewa County, Minnesota, it would cost $7,385,822 to decommission the 18 wind turbines operating at that site, a cost of $410,000 per turbine. 5

The waste disposal site located near Casper, Wyoming will soon be filled with over 1,000 decommissioned wind turbine blades and motor housing units. The Wyoming House of Representatives recently agreed to the introduction of a bill that would ban the disposal of wind turbine blades in the state. Wyoming House Bill 217 would make it a misdemeanor to dispose of turbine blades and would impose fines of up to $1,000 for convictions. 2

Nationwide, there are nearly 50,000 wind turbines, with 2,700 being decommissioned, since the energy boom of the 1970s. Bloomberg New Energy Finance is expecting up to 2 gigawatts worth of turbines to be refitted this year and next. Each turbine blade will need between 30 and 44.8 cubic years of landfill space, using a total of 448,000 cubic yards of the 2.6 million yards set aside for construction and demolition material. This nearly 20 percent of total landfill space is enormous, given the amount of construction and demolition material disposed of in the United States. To prevent acres of abandoned and decaying wind farms, Wyoming laws require companies to provide bonds to cover the cost of decommission and disposal of turbines once they are taken out of service or abandoned. 2

Recycling turbine blades is more regulated in countries that have had wind power for decades. The European Union, for example, has waste management rules. Some European companies sell older and less efficient parts to customers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Veolia, a German global utilities and waste management company, found that decommissioned blades can be crushed and burned along with other components in cement kilns where the blades transform into solid fuel that can be used in the cement industry. One American entrepreneur believes the blades can be recycled by grinding them up to make chocolate chip-sized pellets which can be used for decking materials, pallets, and piping. But, this option does not begin to deal with the massive disposal problem ahead for those countries well into wind generation, which is rapidly including the United States.

With an increasing dependence on wind generated electricity and the ever growing size of the turbines, the issues of waste from wind turbines is significant and evolving. Most state governments did not provide for the disposal of wind turbine blades despite implementing renewable standards that require the generation of electricity from wind or other forms of renewable energy. It appears that many never even thought about the potential side effects of mandating new forms of energy generation such as wind and solar, and are only now learning the consequences of their edicts. Some states have ridiculously high percentage requirements for renewable generation that only exacerbates this problem. 2

In short, disposing of wind turbines is a significant problem, with negative impacts on communities and the environment.

References

  1. “The renewable energy myth: 50,000 tons of non-recyclable wind turbine blades dumped in the landfill,” zonehedge.com, (1/10/20)
  2. “Wind turbine blades will continues to pileup at US landfills,” instituteforenergyresearch.org, (3/6/20)
  3. Pu Liu and Clair Y. Barlow,  “Wind turbine blades in 2050,” Waste Management 62, 229, April 2017
  4. Tony Thomas, “When wind turbines die, the problems are just beginning,” conservativewoman.co.uk, (11/15/19)
  5. Isaac Orr, “It costs $532,000 to decommission a single wind tower,” americanexperiment.org, (12/3/19)

Socrates & the Whole


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong – as a subscriber to Socrates, I find it remarkable how prescient its analyses have been. (Wish I were a better trader to benefit more financially! But that’s another story – live & learn. At least Socrates has kept me out of trouble, so far.)

My observation/question is, now that Vermont has gone full-on Politburo, directing retailers to “CEASE IN-PERSON SALES OF NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS”:  I wonder if the timeline for the dissolution of the Union has accelerated? When Government decides what is essential, we’re all in trouble.

Thank you again for your work.
N.A.

REPLY: Yes, Socrates has done something that no human could have ever foreseen. Even its forecast that unemployment would be like a slingshot I questioned myself since that has never taken place in history. Only something that can analyze and do so without passion, bias, or conflicts of interest would survive such an event. Not even during the Great Depression did we see unemployment rise so fast.

This has NOT been about merely forecast the collapse of the stock market. This is far greater than any single market forecast. If you cannot see the whole, you will never understand what is taking place within a single market.

Just so everyone understands, Socrates is not even in one location. It is monitoring the world from multiple locations around the globe to prevent it from being blocked at least by a single governmen

Manipulating the World Economy Update


The books we listed on eBay are delayed in being mailed out because they are being printed in Pennsylvania. Our printer is located there but actually does print for hospitals so he is designated essential. So the problem was not the printing. The problem became that we cannot hire some temp workers up there to mail out the books. So they will be delayed probably for another week until the chaos clears and the governor of Pennsylvania comes to his senses. I have been told that some are selling the Second Edition on eBay. I presume they are not in Pennsylvania.

We are ordering more books since they keep selling out. I support this is a sign of the time – sheer chaos.

 

Ice Age & Warfare


QUESTION: Did the sea level rise after the last Ice Age? When did warfare begin?

HS

ANSWER: About 85% if pre-history ancient sites are actually underwater.  Usually, ancient people were close to the sea. As a result, many pre-history sites are still underwater which sunk after the last Ice Age. A great example of that is Atlit Yam which was an ancient submerged Neolithic village off the coast of Atlit, Israel. It has been carbon-dated as to be between 8900 and 8300 years old. Among the features of the 10-acre site is a stone circle.

The Neolithic (“New Stone Age”), was the final division of the Stone Age period, which began about 12,000 years ago and is distinguished by the first developments of farming. The Neolithic first farmers, spread westward from Anatolia (modern-day Turkey) arriving in central Europe 7500 years ago. They tended to be more settled lives than the nomadic fishing and foraging peoples they displaced, but they also were territorial. There is evidence that there was violence with mass gravesso there was clearly warfare even back during the transition to the Neolithic period.

There are over 35,000 megaliths in Europe alone, ranging from Sweden to the Mediterranean sea. Stonehenge is a prehistoric monument in Wiltshire, England, which is probably the most famous of this megalithic period. The Neolithic Megalithic era gives way to the Bronze Age. Archaeologists believe Stonehenge was constructed from 3000 BC to 2000 BC.

So yes the sea level rose following the Ice Age and there is evidence that warfare existed even during pre-history.

Proposal for a One World Government Being Floated


The former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged world leaders to create a temporary form of global government to tackle the twin medical and economic crises caused by the Coronavirus. He is no fool. He knows once there is the formation of anything pretended to be “temporary” it exists forever. Why are these people so intent upon trashing our freedoms and converting the world into an authoritarian paradise for them?

Keynesian Economics is collapsing. They will all be thrown out on the street if not dragged out and hanged when hoards of people who counted on these social programs realize they have been played for fools.

Since the coronavirus model of Neil Ferguson has been shown to be wrong, they will NEVERrelinquish the emergency powers that have seized already. When Ferguson appeared before the British Parliament, they never once criticized him and simply said thank you for your efforts. Why is there no recognition of this?

The stay-at-home should be immediately revoked and businesses should be restored. The fact that this is NOT being done has shown precisely what I was getting from my sources that this was (1) bogus, and (2) there were elites who sold in January everything, including bonds. This is the first collapse where the flight to quality was NOT to bonds, but to cash.

As they say, this ain’t over until the fat lady sings. This is a coup against our freedom because socialism is on the verge of collapse. Yet in Asia, they are trying to resume to normal ASAP unlike what we see in Europe in particular.

 

Sorting the Nonsense & Prejudices from the Truth of Reality


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; I want to say thank you so much. I am not sure you are even aware of how right you have been during this entire debacle and I am not referring to just your forecast of the decline in the stock market which saved my future. While everyone was regurgitating the worst scenarios and how this disease was going to kill so many you stood your ground against the world. The conspiracy theories were this was a biological weapon, but you said no. Some claimed the government was hiding how bad it would get and others were predicting we would be segregated into internment camps. You alone said these were exaggerated and that your models showed that the real disease would be in 2022 not now. I read even __ which gathers all the newsletters but interestingly avoids you because you are different and are not a gold bug that they only quote and this doomsday prophecy we were all going to die from a disease. They only aided the panic and never once would report what you had to say proving they too are just fake news.

Your computer has proven to be reliable, dispassionate, and the only such model that has ever been correct on a consistent basis. You deserve more than the Nobel Prize because I question if that is even prestigious enough. They hand it out to like candy and then their accomplishment proves to be fake like Black and Scholes or just political Obama getting the peace prize when he wanted to invade Syria.

The contribution to humanity you try so hard to accomplish is having an impact.

Thank you so much. I cannot express how much of a difference you have made during this entire crisis.

BH

COMMENT #2: Hi Marty
thanks for keeping us informed to whats really happening in the world. You are the only person I actually read and listen to concerning this sham.
You said that the Uk Government has downgraded the threat of the virus. That hasn’t been announced in the UK or in Scotland where I am. Any idea why they are still keeping people in lock down when they know this isnt dangerous at all.
All the best to you
maria

COMMENT #3: Hi Martin, I wanted to share something: this is not socialism coming. It is totalitarianism. What we have had so far is not Capitalism, it’s Cartelism. This is now a bloodless international coup taking place to centralize all power, to reduce the world’s masses to total utter dependency on the global elite technocrats, with a militarized police state protecting the elites from civil unrest. Small businesses are NEVER coming back. Mark my words.
Thank you for all your work!
SP

COMMENT #4 HI Marty
I was aware of the virus downgrade report on the UK Govt health website. It’s been there for about a week. And, if you do a search, there is …… s i l e n c e …. [sound of crickets chirping]….. No major media outlet has reported it.
An email to the BBC, politely asking where they have reported it, remains unanswered.
Power grab coup – all govts being sat on from above.
JF – Liverpool, UK

REPLY: Thank you. I hope one day we can show the world there is a better way to manage our economy instead of trying to manipulate it for political gain. It is interesting why governments are not reversing themselves in like of the bogus studies. This smells like indeed a convenient opportunity for power. Just can’t hand it back now.

Life is a quest for knowledge. When there is nothing left to explore, it is time to die. Being an international adviser and hedge fund manager, I had a front-row seat in the world economy. I have been taught by my clients. I observed that the sum of the whole was indeed made up of the parts. Tracking the movement of money for investment flows showed the ebb and flow of global confidence. While others created indexed based on trade, like the dollar index, I found such presumptions ludicrous. Trade is such a small portion of capital flows that such biases cloud our judgment and blinds us to the trend.

In studying history I came to realize that there was a cycle to innovation as well. I agreed with Schumpeter‘s view of Creative Destruction. I set out to construct a model that was free to explore the world and to return like a dog in a game of go fetch. It proved to me it was making some profound discoveries that people are too prejudiced to ever see.

I appeared with Walter Bressert I believe in 1982 or 1983 on Financial News Network in California which began in 1981 and became CNBC in 1991. I gave the forecast on the British pound that it would fall from $240 to par by 1985. The host turned to Walt and asked about that outrageous forecast. Walt said he would never bet against my computer.

I had to develop speech capability back then just to be able to communicate because it was making what I thought were impossible forecasts. I worked with Dragon Systems in the ’80s when the speech was all hardware. I needed to be able to inquire how it came up with such a forecast as it did on the British pound. For it has also projected that the politics would flip (i.e. Margaret Thatcher) and that the British economy would invert and align more with the USA against continental Europe. That prediction seemed to be really off-the-wall. I inquired: why?

Socrates showed a correlation with the discovery of North Sea Oil. In 1970, British Petroleum made its first discovery of commercial oil in the large Forties Field, although oil was not produced until 1976. By 1974, it was apparent that North Sea oil could provide a massive source of energy, and also revenue. The computer picked up the capital flows and determined that the British economy would align with the United States as it was becoming a commodity-linked economy.

The success of Socrates is entirely based upon the fact that it is NOT dependent upon human assumptions for as this crisis has proven, a faulty assumption produces serious mistakes coming out – Garbage in – Garbage out. You cannot create a model that starts with a human presumption or bias. Create a model that is hard-wired that assumes interest rates up and the stock will crash will never work. That is not a mode, it is a flawed program that just repeats human mistakes and prejudices.

Real Artificial Intelligence is not an expert system where it simply looks up human conclusions. So many pretend to have AI but all they do is simply look up predetermined conclusions. True AI must explore and reason for itself. Only then can we rely upon such computer programs.

I have never seen any Neural Network accomplish actually work nor any Expert System which is just looking up the answers in a list created by humans. The Neural Network simply tried to mimic the construction of the human brain and assumes that if you throw in enough data it will learn. Even IBM’s Watson failed. Socrates is the ONLY fully functioning Artificial Intelligence system in the world that is monitoring the entire global economy and all its components – PERIOD!

Money cannot buy everything in life. I turned down $500 million for Socrates where it would have just provided analysis for a single user. I rejected the request of the CIA to build a version for the US government. I offered to run any study they asked and was told they “had to own it.”

I do not need money. I suppose because I have had that luxury in life of having a talent to be a trader it has allowed me to be independent. Sure there are people who hate my guts because they cling to old theories like the Austrian-School of Economics and refuse to review the fact that the world economy is not determined by the simple Quantity Theory of Money (QTM). That is what Keynesian Economics is based on and how central banks operate.

This entire QTM is just a fool’s game for they just ignore the fact that China, Japan, and Germany all rose without gold. Under their theory, Russia should be the leading world economy having gold, silver, diamonds, and energy. Their minds are closed and they would persecute anyone who disagreed just as those who rejected the idea that the earth was not flat or that the Wright Brothers could fly even after they were doing it for 2 years preferring to call them frauds.  Heinrich Schliemann who discovered Troy, Mycenae and many other places mentioned in Homer they also called a fraud because he proved they too were wrong. The academics also declared Historia Augusta to be fake because it mentioned Roman emperors they never heard of during the 3rd century. When two gold coins were discovered in Egypt of Saturninus, the book they called a fraud showed it was the academics who were wrong again just as we have witnessed with the virus.

So I believe I am in good company.

The dark side of humanity is the prejudices we harbor. We have to surrender that to the universe and be willing to follow the logic and the facts. Until then, humans are incapable of emotionally evolving. This is why history repeats because the passions of humankind never change through the centuries. Those who are the naysayers will cling to their prejudices and they would love to burn me at the stake as they did to Bruno. I really do not care because I know they will leave nothing behind but the obstruction of knowledge and are incapable of ever having an original thought.

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, February 2020 Data


From the attached report on climate change for February 2020 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 30.0% from 1958 to February of 2020. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE 2020-02

The WEC & Networking


COMMENT #1: Martin attending the WEC for 4 years now has been the greatest PHD program, in reality, one could ever get.  And the most important thing you have taught me is, “We are all connected.”  It’s no accident that the trees in the fall look like a frozen lightning bolt, our veins, the pattern of a river from the sky and also your lungs.

And something you were doing that I didn’t understand till this crisis started.  Networking.  I have made many friends at these conferences and we have stayed in touch…But once this crisis started I now have a team and I mean team of people reaching out form around the world contacting me giving info, explaining things I don’t understand and more than a trade, Looking out for my feature.  I am closer to these people that many families and lifetime friends.

This, as you have described is turning out to be one big, poorly written story in which that masses have take hook line and sinker.  Repeat, Repeat, Repeat the lie.
This conditioning was what common core was all about and there are so many agendas being ticked off the Marxist box it’s frightening.  From forced vaccination to Robotics.  My wife works for a defense company. And now that an older man has come down with the virus the question becomes, Do we shut down the office every time someone gets a virus.

With that as the background, If this is so dangerous, Why is Governor Cuomo bringing his Daughter, a non Government, non-essential to work.

And the panicked mayor goes to the gym?

P.S. You are more than a blessing and I went to you thinking I’d understand the Economy better and have left learning how to be a better human.

Thank you.

AW

COMMENT #2: I was skeptical about your events. I met someone who attended. He said you do not try to raise money or solicit something. I attended your Orlando WEC last year. You have saved my financial life. I heard at the event people saying you spend $750,000 just on the food for everyone. I wanted to say thank you from the bottom of my heart.

DK

REPLY: Yes, the WEC events have become a tradition. The networking is tremendous. It is very gratifying to see how everyone connects and develops friends internationally. If you throw a wedding for your child, you know the cost is outrageous. Not that is supplying just one dinner. We have to provide three meals a day and then the cocktail party. The drinks alone cost usually between $75,000 to $100,000. They are certainly not boxed lunch affairs.

It was very disappointing that we had to can the WEC in Shanghai. So many people from the West wanted to meet the like-minded in China. We still have our fingers cross for Europe, but declaring emergency power for one year in Germany makes me wonder.

I did TV show in Germany and there was a girl dress in jeans. I assumed she was just part of the film crew but she was just sitting listening to me. To get into this facility required clearance. I had to bring my passport to prove I was the person invited. When I finished, this girl got up and quickly left. I saw her rush out and jumped on a motorbike and sped off. She was there to monitor what I was saying.

I think Orlando will be OK. Just not sure about Europe yet if this is a major power-grab.

Why the Dow is Different From S&P 500 & NASDAQ


QUESTION: Hello,
I have been following you for several years and being retired your emails along with my coffee are a great way to start the day. I want to stay limber and laser focused on one index. I chose the S&P because of the volume; both ETF and options.
I know a rising tide lifts all boats; but you seem to be all about the DOW. Of the two (or three IWM); any comments about which one(s) are more for trading than investing?
Thank you again
CS

ANSWER: Socrates covers over 1,000 markets daily. The Dow is a reflection of the big money and international capital flows. The S&P 500 is more domestic oriented and used among institutions and fund managers, whereas the NASDAQ has more of a tendency to be retail. On the rally up from 2009, the Dow led. Note that at the peak here in 2020, the Dow peaked first, then the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ made new highs into February taking the lead from the Dow. That was the kiss of death and confirmation that a sharp correction was then possible.