European Civil Unrest Erupting in Germany & the Netherlands


Riots are erupting all over Europe. In Stuttgart, a total of 400 to 500 people participated in the riots since Sunday night with 19 police officers injured. The same is unfolding in the Hague in the Netherlands. These politicians know nothing about human nature. Our studies of time and riots warned that a simple correlation provided a forecast that the civil unrest would turn violent after 4 to 6 weeks. We have even provided a listing of US civil unrest incidents.

These politicians are clueless as to what they are trying to do, using this virus as the excuse to civilly imprison people until they destroy all CO2 producing companies. They are fully conspiring with the climate change people by using the virus as the excuse to destroy the world economy.

Will the Dollar Crash?


QUESTION: Good morning from Greece Martin!! It will be very interesting to have your comment on Steven’s Roach interview at CNBC about an upcoming dollar collapse due to the ballooning US deficit.

My respect for your job,
JA

ANSWER: This is the typical myopic nonsense. All they ever do is look at the quantity of money and focus exclusively on the United States. There is a dollar shortage because around the world people fear their own governments. About 70% of all paper dollars are outside the USA. With the prospect of Europe canceling their currency and their inability to sell debt, they will push to convert all debt to perpetual bonds without notice; the dollar will be the LAST to crack. Make no mistake about it — the dollar will crack for that is the Monetary Crisis Cycle. But this comes in stages.

These economists look at domestic numbers and always rely on the Quantity Theory of Money, and they have been dead wrong ever since 2009. The dollar would crash if Trump lost the election, for then the Democrats would join the socialists of Europe. Pelosi already tried to slip in the “digital dollar” in preparation of also canceling the currency to enforce raising taxes.

New Interview: The Mid-March Bottom and Rising Civil Unrest


Click here to listen to “The Mid-March Bottom and Rising Civil Unrest” interview with Cris Sheridan from Financial Sense (June 16, 2020)

This interview confers Socrates forecasting the mid-March bottom followed by a strong rally. Only an advanced computer system capable of viewing every market simultaneously while comparing past patterns, timing, and pricing could make such a forecast. Additionally, the interview discusses how our models pinpointed the beginning of the rising civil unrest that we are currently witnessing on a global scale. This is an organized attempt to reconstruct the world economy. Stay informed.

To view all of Martin’s latest interviews, visit the “Media” tab on the homepage of our website.

Is Socialism Dying?


QUESTION: Good day Marty. Thanks for your work and assistance at trying to remain sane during these times. Question; you’ve stated many times that socialism is dying. From where I sit it appears the opposite. Do you think these are the signs of an extinction burst, or do we expect even more insanity ultimately leading to the complete loss of freedom and liberty at the hands of these lunatics?

Thanks, be well and please live long!!

DA

ANSWER: It is dying because the social programs can no longer be funded from pensions to the size of government employment. Because this is dying, it also results in aggressive fighting back in the system to try to save it. In part, this has been the intense hatred of Trump, and the Democrats feel they must take the White House to save their agenda. Consequently, the rise in activity is the direct result of it declining. If nothing was at risk, there would be no need for this intense rise in resistance. So they are reacting ONLY because it is failing. We see this in Europe where they are moving to cancel all currency to force people back to the banks where they will be charged negative interest rates for daring to save.

Unfortunately, we have the last twelve years left. Marxism never works. They have tried it so many times. It fails because they try desperately to change human nature. They constantly portray someone having more than they do as evil and unjust. We are all created equal in rights, but not in talents. Some people faint at the sight of blood and others can be doctors. Some are great athletes and others can’t run 20 yards. We should see the end of Marxism with the collapse of governments beginning in 2032 moving into 2037/2038.

Global Unemployment


COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

According to a survey done by an online HR/recruitment firm (link attached above), 1 in 5 of Malaysians lost their job due to MCO aka lockdown arising from the COVID.

This is a stark contrast from what mainstream media reports or official numbers. It looks like things are getting ugly when reality sets in.

Stay safe and stay healthy. God bless America!

S

REPLY: It appears that on average, the global unemployment rate is around 20% thanks to COVID-19. Certain places where they rely on tourism has reached 50%+. This is so profound. Governments in Europe are telling people to stay home for vacations and not travel to southern Europe. Americans have been terrorized by the media not to take cruises or travel by plane. This summer will only heighten the sovereign debt crisis as we head into August.

What is Different This Time Between 1987 & 2020 – 33 years Later?


QUESTION: Marty, I was there at your 1987 conference on the weekend of the crash. I was amazed, with many others, that you were able to say the futures would drop 10,000bp and bottom with the ECM and then make new highs. I don’t have to say many did not believe that forecast. What is the difference you see this time since it does feel different?

Your loyal follower on this quest for knowledge.

PGD

ANSWER: The 1987 Crash took place on the day of the ECM on October 19, 1987. So we have the low on the turning point, which confirmed that we should make new highs by the next turning point 1989.95.

The cause was termination from the foreign exchange markets set in motion by the stupidity of the G5 in trying to manipulate the dollar lower for trade AFTER they sold 1/3 of the US national debt to the Japanese.

By attempting to manipulate the dollar lower to gain trade benefits, they fail to understand that foreign investment in the US would also be repelled. You cannot lower the value of a currency by 40% to help trade without causing losses to foreign investors. So the 1987 Crash was currency driven and not economic. When Rubin was trying the same stupid nonsense in 1997, 10 years later, that is when I warned them this was a stupid idea that created the 1987 Crash. They responded, but more importantly, they backed off.

 

This time we have brain-dead epidemiologists who are as corrupt as a $3 bill and should be thrown in prison for the global damage they have done deliberately without regard to the people. They have sold their souls to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which should be investigated for covert activities. The economic patterns are distinctly different and reflect the actions of a terrorist organization. This was not the mere stupidity of unqualified people in government. We have billionaires acting like usurpers, seizing power to force their vision of the future upon the rest of society.

This has been a direct assault to destroy and redesign the economy from the ground up. The patterns are completely different and display a frontal attack upon the economy. This is not a result of an unintended consequence of manipulating one market without comprehending the interconnectivity throughout the entire system. This has been a deliberate attempt to destroy the economy and our way of life as we have known it. Therefore, the stark difference has been the collapse of many sectors that have been set in motion deliberately. We then see European politicians gleefully looking at this as an opportunity to rebuild the economy from a green perspective. You have Spain introducing basic income which is all designed to move Europe into a full-blown Marxist state by eliminating paper currency. Soon, they will default on all debt by transforming all government debt to perpetual bonds when they realize they cannot sell debt anymore.

 

When we look at the 1987 Crash, the entire event was 8.6 weeks. It bottomed with the ECM, which was not the case this time.  Moreover, there was a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals at 286.10. Once they were elected, there was nothing on our system models, including technical, that would reflect any support until we reached the Monthly Bearish Reversal. Hence, the forecast we would drop 10,000 points and then bottom wit the ECM.

The Monthly Bearish Reversal was 180.30 and the low was 180.00. That met all our criteria perfectly. But look at the pattern for the recovery. We do not see the strong immediate bounce as we have seen this time. In fact, it took 41 weeks to elect the first Weekly Bullish Reversal. There was a slow but steady advance which was reflecting the underlying strength within the economy. There was no Paradigm Shift, but a disruption to the foreign exchange markets which is the foundation of international capital investment.

The G5 was created at the Plaza Accord in 1985, calling for the dollar to decline by 40% to reduce the US trade deficit. As the dollar fell too far, other members complained and this led to the Louvre Accord in February 1987, when they declared the dollar had declined far enough. The dollar kept falling, the sentiment shifted, and everyone began to question if the central banks were capable of doing anything. Hence, by October 1987, there was a massive panic selling in the dollar which led to selling dollar assets.

Energy & the Stock Market


 

QUESTION: Marty; Your energy model seems to be warning that the bounce is not going to last. I have followed the reversals and they have been great for the bounce. What I have noticed is your energy model peaked two weeks before the low but as the market has rallied, energy has been declining. The 2018 December low your energy bottomed with the low and that was a good rally. This seems to be the opposite. Is my interpretation correct?

DF

ANSWER: Yes. We have a divergence on the weekly level with the typical novice rushing in to buy based upon the fact the market has simply rallied. They will always judge the next 5 years by a few weeks of price action. When we look at the monthly level, the peak in price was very high in energy which has been declining ever since. This also warns of caution. Keep in mind that we had a nice 11-year rally in the Dow & S&P500 from the 2009 low. That is a traditional bull market. But the NASDAQ bottomed in 2002, not 2009, so that was an 18-year rally, which is significantly different.

Is this Unfolding Faster than Expected?


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have been targeting 2021 into 2022 as a critical time. Do you think this is unfolding faster than expected, or is this yet another sucker rally to get people all trapped in again on a bounce and then slaughter them? I find it curious how people get so bullish at every high and it smells that way now. What do you see in the near-term? I saw Socrates traded the rally in gold very good, but the ratio just shifted and it did not make a new high. It looks like weakness is coming back. All these people clamoring that they missed the NASDAQ rally look like they will be separated from their money really soon. What do you think?

FP

ANSWER: You have to subscribe to Socrates for each particular market. I do not have the time to comment on every single market and you cannot make a comment of the Dow and apply to another index any more than gold applies to silver or platinum. They are all different. Socrates is there for a reason. It is objective without bias and is not written by any person – it is totally computer generated which is a good thing in times like this. We all have our prejudices that can get in the way of objectivity. That is why people sell the low and buy highs.

We definitely have to be careful here for it is true that only fools rush in where wise men dare not tread. With all the chaos in the world, these people who think they missed everything with the NASDAQ rally merely illustrates how naive they are to even think the market can rally from here with no problems because some states are opening up. They will simply become the fuel for the moves ahead.

 

Those are the people who inevitably buy the high because they get so caught up always at the top. The pattern which seems to get the emotions flowing the most is always the Knee-Jerk Reaction before the high. This is often the strongest type of move just before the high which sucks them all in at the top thinking this is it and here we go. They want to pretend to be investors, but then they want to really trade every move.

When we look at the German DAX, there we have elected ALL FOUR Monthly Bearish Reversals from the February high but we also elected a Quarterly Bearish Reversal at the end of March. This is a clear warning that we have a very serious shift in the trend moving forward into 2022. We have not elected any Quarterly Bearish Reversal in the Dow, there is obviously a major shift in trend within the US v externally even with the lockdown.

We are NOT ahead of schedule. June remains a Directional Change and July is the next key target. We then have the 2020 elections coming and that will have a major impact upon the confidence behind the dollar into 2022.

Nobody is capable of forecasting this type of market from a gut perspective. This is the entire reason you need to look at Socrates per market and not assume anything. This is something that cannot be judged even fundamentally because there are so many things changing only a fool will assume they can see the future reducing everything to a single cause and effect.

So far, there is nothing that suggests the trend has accelerated. The swings are still within historical movements. The NASDAQ is different for its low was 2002 not 2009. Obviously, you cannot apply the same outlook to the NASDAQ as you see in the S&P500 or the Dow. To each its own, as they say.

We are creating a new index with 30 stocks to reflect the Paradigm Equity Shift. We are working on a special report to cover this event since it is the first time it has taken place since the 1930s.

Buffett Sold All Airlines in Advance


 

The US Share Market Behind the Scenes


October WEC 2019

QUESTION: I noticed going over your blogs that Socrates picked up the divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indexes you commented on before the crash began. I understand you do not have the time to comment on every market and it is best to follow what Socrates writes. But you said at the conference this was unusual and you said it would be a crash that was a combination of 1998 and 2008. Something just does not smell right with the markets as you commented before. Do you have any additional insight as to what is unfolding?

GPK

At this time, there is an all-out war in the financial markets with the Climate Change Activists trying to force major funds to divest of anything that produces CO2. This is undoubtedly a deliberate crash that has been orchestrated with respect to the magnitude of the decline – not when. The computer was picking up these subtle changes beginning last August 2019. As I have said many times, it cannot tell me the person, it can only show the machinations behind the scenes.