Seeing Cycles Everywhere Around Us


For years, it has been a sort of family joke that I view the world around me and see the cycles in everything. I had walked into a casino and noticed there were cycles to the numbers coming out on a roulette wheel, but more fascinating was that the cycles were unique to each dealer. This is why casinos rotate the dealers from table to table. I notice this particular dealer was very cyclical one night so when the casino moved him, I closed and followed him to the next table. This was back around 1971, and I was winning a lot so people began watching me. Some very big player from Texas came and sat beside me and whatever I played he did too. We made so much money they closed the casino. Whenever I would walk into a casino and start to play roulette, within 30 minutes they came to me and asked my name and would always say we recognize you as a player. I would cash out and just leave.


There was a family gathering and my daughter was always fond of horses. The talk was all about the Triple Crown. They said no one had won since 1978. I did the wave math in my head and replied that this year the horse will win. I do not even follow horses. They just looked at me and asked, “You can forecast that too?” I simply looked at the stats and saw the cycles. I said this is the year the horse will win – and American Pharaoh won. What did I see in the stats? The major turning point from 1978 should be 37.33 (8.6 * 4.3) bringing it to 2015. The horse won. I didn’t bet on the race. Like the scene in the movie the Matrix, I just see the cycles to everything around me.

Now there is Jason Padgett, who is 41, and he sees complex mathematical formulas everywhere he looks. He sees the geometry in everything. He said, “I see bits and pieces of the Pythagorean theorem everywhere.” He continued, “Every single little curve, every single spiral, every tree is part of that equation.” He hand draws what he sees and he is a college drop out but understands and sees the fractal nature of everything. As I have tried to explain, everything is connected and there is absolutely nothing void of a cycle. Even when something dies, there is a cycle to the decay as everything turns back to dust as they say.

Padgett can draw a visual representation of the formula pi, which is really an infinite number that begins with 3.14. He explains, “A fractal is a shape that when you take the shape a part into pieces, the pieces are the same or similar to the whole. So say I had 1,000 pictures of you, that were little and I put all those little pictures of you in the right spot to make the exact same picture of you, but bigger.” While Benoit Mandelbrot is credited with discovering Fractal Geometry, he was not someone who could see it in the real world all around him. He was a mathematician and his attempt to apply it to things was not very helpful.

I have tried to explain why cycles exist. Any time I have been wrong, it has simply been my interpretation of the cycle, not that there is no cycle. The reason you can find a cycle that works for a bit and then it suddenly vanishes has been because of the interconnections – not the fact that cycles do not work. For you see, the interconnections are what produce the major overwhelming events, which is why economists are always wrong and have been unable to forecast the future. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a conjunction of many cycles such as technology where the invention of the combustion engine reduced the need for workers in agriculture. Like the internet is replacing local book and camera stores, tractors reduced the agricultural workforce from 40% to 3% causing unemployment to rise. Add to that the Dust Bowl, the Sovereign Debt Crisis in 1931, and the excess capital inflows fleeing Europe, what you ended up with was a bubble economy like Japan into 1989, and then the dramatic decline. Such events and NEVER simply one cause. Nevertheless, every investigation into such events always attempts to reduce it to a single cause and effect which is impossible.

What is most fascinating about Padgett is that this remarkable gift appeared only after he was attacked and suffered some brain damage. Berit Brogaard, who was a neuroscientist at the Center for Neurodynamics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis flew Padgett to Finland to run a series of tests as to why he could suddenly see the fractal world around him. The results revealed that his brain showed the damage from the attack he suffered, but the brain rewired itself and was using particular areas that most people don’t have access to. Padgett had become an acquired savant, which means he was brilliant but in a specific area. His story is quite fascinating. He has acquired talent to see the fractal interconnections and suddenly was able to draw what he sees. Remarkable!

Religious & Climate Change DRAFT

Armstrong Economics Blog
Re-Posted Jan 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good morning Mr. Armstrong!

Thanks for always opening our eyes! Could you please explain to me what natural phenomenon of cataclysmic proportions could alter the world and even change religion and who and how would they benefit today? What role should universities play in this scenario? What and how should we teach in classrooms to prepare our students so they can face this future?
Professor … University

ANSWER: That is a very interesting question. Historically, religion seems to go through changes that are driven by economics. However, in many instances, economics has been driven itself by often climate change that has resulted in mass migrations.

There were two major climate change periods which drove the populations from the north to invade the south. The first was the Sea People who invaded moving from Europe south into northern Africa. That was the collapse of the Bronze Age. Virtually every civilization collapsed with the exception of Egypt. The next major mass migration was the invasion of the northern tribes into the Roman Empire.

Even the migration from Europe to the United States in mass took place during the Little Ice Age. Remember, there were no income taxes. The tax burdens were indirect and property taxes. The weather, however, was very cold. Most likely the combination sent many to flee to the United States.

The Great Irish Potato famine began in 1845 and had a severe social impact for some six years which sent waves of Irish migrating to America. Ironically, those who keep claiming that the population will run out of food using the theory of Thomas Malthus, miss the entire point of what motivated him behind coming up with that theory – it was climate change and the Little Ice Age – not global warming. The environmental dangers behind Malthus and his six essays on population were published between 1798 and 1826. This was the Little Ice Age.

If we look at the fall of Rome, historians have reached a consensus that the line is drawn with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180AD. He is followed by his son, Commodus, who is so ruthless that he was assassinated on December 31, 192AD which unleashed civil war in Rome. The Praetorian Guards were so corrupt, they put the office of Emperor up for the highest bidder after assassinating Commodus.

While the victor was Septimus Severus who began the Severan Dynasty, a member of that line was Elagabalus (218-222AD) who important his god from Syria and compelled the people to worship a black meteorite he claimed was the stone from god. He issued coins displaying the meteorite in a chariot he would parade around the city. He was assassinated in 222AD and his body was dragged through the streets.

So religion has often played a key role in events caused by economics driven often by climate change.

Northwoods & Cycle of War


This particular Cycle of War is the combination of two models: 1) international war, and 2) domestic civil unrest. This is the first time these two models have coincided in the same time slot for about 300 years. We should expect a rise in civil unrest going into 2022, but the international war cycle is targeting 2032. We are witnessing a sharp intense rise in civil unrest on a global scale. This is what we should be most concerned about, for this is what leads to separatist movements and in many cases civil war.

I will update the Cycle of War in 2020

The Hidden Order behind the Mask of Chaos

COMMENT: Marty, The last few days I’ve been remotely attending the 2019 WEC Orlando. Lo and behold, now? three months hence and six days into the new wave?I am simply astounded at hearing how you describe your own amazement with the global confluence of events occurring absolutely everywhere while also curious whether there is merely one event telltale to the Jan. 18/19 hand-off. Then, the Wuhan coronavirus breaks out big today and market graphs everywhere all hop on the toboggan to end the week. How did you ever do it?! You’re truly a man of a thousand graces and I, for one, could not be more grateful.

Breaking the WEC to stay current with the latest today, it has been conspicuously absent for me to have yet encountered the term “Black Swan” regarding this Wuhan event. Then, it occurred to me: The term itself is a bit Johnny-come-lately and would not surprise me one bit it has flown the coop over maybe most could be seeking an oil of veracity through Socrates to throw on all these choppy waters.

It would be most interesting to see the traffic stats for AE and Socrates when such events as these take off.

In Gratitude!

D. D.

REPLY: What you have to understand and why I am often so critical of analysis, is that real analysis does NOT begin with a predetermined conclusion. What I am trying to reveal and why I put the very sources of what I have read into books like the Manipulating the World Economy, is because the proper way of analysis is exploration. I have sought perhaps like Leonardo DaVinci to figure out how things actually work without some predetermined agenda. DaVinci dug up dead bodies to try to discover how we function.

All the research I have done is in that vein. So it is me trying to show the world, hey look at this! My opinions and beliefs have been shaped by what I have encountered. I have never looked at research to prove a predetermined idea. That is where everyone goes wrong. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was hated by Keynes and so many others BECAUSE they do not like the way the world economy functions, and they seek to manipulate it to perform as they desire. That is why economics is no longer a science but has degenerated into a political propaganda machine.

People judge me by everyone else. This turn in the Economic Confidence Model is not about me being right, wrong, smarter than everyone else, or any other personal critique. This is about how the world truly functions and everything from weather to disease plays a role right down to this coronavirus which I am running our models to try to ascertain will this be a cyclical pandemic, or an epidemic – a big difference!

All of my research has been a quest to understand how the world truly functions. It has always been:

Hey, take a look at this! Here is order hidden behind the mask of chaos!

Every single action has an equal and opposite reaction. This is why I taught Socrates how to look for patterns and how to analyze those patterns. I have warned that the 2020 election will be notorious and will mark a rise in violence. People are unwilling to accept the vote of the people. If they lose, they blamed Russia for everything. Democracy is dying along with civility. I am not interested in being right, I wish I was wrong.

We are faced with the collapse in Democracy our model forecast back in 1985 would begin 2015.75. Politicians like Adam Schiff are the poster child for absolute corruption and dishonesty. This type of behavior has never been seen and is merely an attempt to put a Democrat in the White House who will raise taxes and devastate the business community in the spirit of “progressiveness” which is the new politically correct label for Marxism.

This is all part of the decline and fall of the West and the shift in the Financial Capital of the World back to Asia. It does not matter who wins in 2020, the other side will never accept the winner.

The Future & Analysis

QUESTION:  Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I just saw your interview on BNN, too bad you only had about 7 minutes to explain something that big, guess that’s the Limitation of TV Media I’m glad I bought the Repo Crisis Report. You would not have such limitations on your own platform like youtube. Can you see yourself doing a compilation of blog articles or updates in a video format like once or week or a month? You used to do this in 2015 for many Markets and also explained your reading on the arrays and reversals. I guess many people think of it as highly as I myself do.
all the best


ANSWER: That is why the special reports are so important. You really have to support what you are saying or end up with just “I think” opinions that plague the analysis field. What I am doing is coding right now something to highlight everything that is taking place on a global scale with the ECM etc. I am trying to create systems that replace me and will keep going long after I am gone. We all do have expiration dates. I am trying to replace me. We even laugh internally for some have proposed we create a hologram of myself that could still appear long after I am gone

The Climate Change – Al Gore & Jennifer Morgan’s Fraud

All of the data that these climate activists have been using is an absolute fraud. It is untrue that 97% of scientists agree to any of this nonsense. They create that myth to then bully scientists who dare disagree with their agenda.

This is actually criminal behavior and the agenda is Marxism behind the entire plot. They use children like Greta and then Jennifer Morgan proclaimed at Davos that Greta is a climate expert, which is really just absurd at the age of 16.

Nobody will dare even question the climate change activists. They are NEVER asked to prove anything they have to say. They are NEVER asked to even produce a list of scientists who can be verified who have agreed with this catastrophic doom. Exploiting a 16-year-old girl so no one will publicly challenge her because of her age is all part of the scheme.

To argue global warming is dangerous is absurd. Just ask yourself: When is the flu season? Summer or Winter? Claiming this is all human-induced is a major fraud in and of itself when measuring the warming coming out of the Little Ice Age. It certainly appears that this is part of the economic decline of Europe that is underway. Then we have economists like Rogoff arguing to tax the West to hand the money to China. That is just an example as to why the West is declining and our computer will be correct — China is emerging as the next Financial Capital of the World. American politics has entered its Dark Age and its inevitable collapse.


Edmonton & the 7th Century

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong…HOW DARE YOU!!!!!????

My brother lives in Edmonton, AB where the surface air temperature is a refreshing -23F as of 6:30 pm MST this evening. I am in the coastal northeast where if that temperature were to occur, there would probably be a societal breakdown with tens of thousands frozen to death overnight along with power outage, looting, and rioting. But in Edmonton, things just roll along like another day.

In the case of medieval Europe, would you say that the Huns may have been motivated in the 5th century AD to move east out of the steppe lands into western Europe due to the colder climate? Also, in the 6th century during the intensified cold, the Gothic wars erupted which led to a major depopulation of the Italian peninsula. Then in the 7th century, there seems to have been so little history documented that the misery taking place there may have been at an extreme degree at that time. Were there any coins minted during the 7th century in western Europe? The ones you showed of Peppin the Short and Charles the Great from the 8th century are fascinating! Also, did Charles Martel have any minted for him in the early 8th century?


REPLY: I have been to Edmonton. Gave a lecture there back in the ’90s. Hundreds of people showed up, and I assumed it was just to get together to huddle for warmth. It was -40F. Not sure anyone was really listening to what I said. They were looking for hot air if I recall. The next day was only -20F and there were people in short-sleeve shirts calling it a beautiful spring day. All I remember is I could not open my mouth outside it was so cold my teeth would hurt. I also remember it was so cold they couldn’t even turn off their cars. They would never start again.

Yes, Charles Martel and Peppin the Short issued silver deniers. It was Charlemagne who was the first to apply his portrait to the coinage. So there was coinage during this 7th century, but something changed dramatically at that time. Peppin the Short was the son of Charles Martel who halted the Arab invasion of Europe in 732. The Carolingians, therefore, take their name from Peppin’s father Charles Martel.

Martel was really the last of the Merovingian dynasty which ruled the Franks from the middle of the 5th century until 751 AD. They first appear as “Kings of the Franks” in the Roman army of northern Gaul. By 509 AD, they had united all the Franks and northern Gaulish Romans under their rule as the Roman Empire which had broken apart in 476 AD. The coinage of the Merovingians was gold, not silver.

The Merovingian rulers began imitating the gold solidus issued by the Eastern surviving portion of the Roman Empire, which we call the Byzantine Empire. They issued gold tremissis from about 473 AD under Gundobald and then imitated the Byzantine coinage from about 500 AD forward.

Therefore, it was the 8th century when we find gold vanish from coinage in the Western portion of the old Roman Empire which appears to be coinciding with the rise of the Arab world and their attempt to invade Europe.

There is no doubt that the migrations were driven by climate change. Climate change has always caused massive migrations which have historically been movements from North to South. Even the Mayans of Mexico appear to have DNA links to Asia and were migrants perhaps 15,000 years ago who crossed the Beringia land bridge, which had formed between northeastern Siberia and western Alaska due to the lowering of sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum. It turned warmer back then without CO2 from fossil fuels and then the Ice Age change the sea leve

97% Scientists Do Not Agree with Climate Change or the Solution

In 2009, the University of Illinois sent a survey online to about 10,000 scientists with the following two questions:


Do you agree that global temperatures have generally risen since the pre-1800s?

Do you think that human activity is a significant contributing factor?

Only 3146 responses were received of 10,000, and of that 31%, 90% said yes to the first question but 82% said yes to the second question.

This is how the fraud was carried out by people who have used this survey. They narrowed down the responses and found that among Meteorologists who responded, only 64% said yes to the second question, so about 1/3 said NO!

Then disregarding all the others of the 3146 responses, they focused on only 77 who described themselves as “climate experts” without any proof of their credentials and found that only 75 said yes to the second question.

Therefore, when we divide 75/77 we get to their claim of  97% of all scientists in the world say there is a climate emergency that warrants raising taxes and seizing property.

This was only 2.3% of those who bothered to respond and I doubt that they would agree with the solution which is COMMUNISM!


If we take the 75 responses of 10,000 scientists surveyed, that means that 0.0075% agreed that there is climate change with some human causality. Why are they lying to the entire world? Because behind this movement is the destruction of capitalism and the resurrection of communism. And people wonder why our computer has been forecasting that the financial capital of the world is moving to Asia? Climate Change Activists are trying to recreate the Marxist experiment all over again.


Rogoff’s Global Carbon Tax – Give the Money to China

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What do you think about Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff who advocates a global carbon tax and then takes that money and hand it to China to subsidize them ending coal to generate electricity?

I think he has lost his mind.


ANSWER: This is why major institutions have ZERO respect for academics. They have no concept of the real economy because they have never had to actually roll up their sleeves and deal with a crisis. They have never seen firsthand how capital actually moves. They also see people as an endless source of taxes. Just unbelievable.

When You Thought You Hit A Dog

QUESTION: You are wrong as usual. We just had the hottest decade. This is all about fossil fuels. There was never a CO2 problem until fossil fuels.


ANSWER: This entire climate change is nonsense! The first clean air act was passed by the Emperor Justinian in 535AD. Humans have burned wood long before coal. Perhaps you slept through science class, but burning wood produces CO2. This nonsense that the climate has changed ONLY because of humans and fossil fuels is ridiculous. They used fake data only since 1850, refuse to discuss the climate cycles pre-1850, and they fail to address the fact that we were coming out of the Little Ice Age for 200 years before the invention of automobiles and a 100 years before they invented trains.

Believe what you want to believe, but you are a victim of organized propaganda. You go right ahead and destroy Western society, lose your job, and live without heat or air conditioning. I will move to Asia where this nonsense is being rejected. And by the way, 1934 remains the hottest year on record with 1998 being number two.

There just so happens to be a 43-year cycle. The year 1934 was a major cycle inversion and remains the record high. Then 43 years later, 1977, that was the Deep Freeze where it snowed in Miami and they were talking about climate change back then too turning back to an Ice Age. Again, 43 years later and it is back to the 40s in Miami and there are warnings about falling iguanas because it gets so cold they are still alive but pass out.

You people are taking credit for everything. The Australian fires and California droughts are all because of CO2? I hate to tell you that just because the press only wants to sell newspapers they are willing to print your garbage to get people talking about this nonsense. There have been droughts in California that have lasted more than 200 years! Nobody will address the cyclical evidence pre-1850.

The co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, Roger Hallam, in his Common Sense for the 21st Century, claims mass disruption, mass arrests, and mass sacrifice are necessary to prevent extinction. He calls for acts of civil disobedience, bypass political theory, and urges people to rise up to a non-violent revolution against society. He calls for the confiscation of private property. Your spokesperson is an outright communist. Nothing he has put forth proves anything. (see Spiegel, November 22, 2019)

So what you are saying is the Little Ice Age should be the norm and all this global warming is entirely because of fossil fuels? Enjoy yourself. Give up your car. Do not heat or air condition your home. If you cannot walk or ride a bike to work, quit! And how dare you use electricity to send me an email. If you want to be a climate activist, then adapt what you are yelling about instead of blaming everyone, of course, except yourself.