Is this Unfolding Faster than Expected?


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have been targeting 2021 into 2022 as a critical time. Do you think this is unfolding faster than expected, or is this yet another sucker rally to get people all trapped in again on a bounce and then slaughter them? I find it curious how people get so bullish at every high and it smells that way now. What do you see in the near-term? I saw Socrates traded the rally in gold very good, but the ratio just shifted and it did not make a new high. It looks like weakness is coming back. All these people clamoring that they missed the NASDAQ rally look like they will be separated from their money really soon. What do you think?

FP

ANSWER: You have to subscribe to Socrates for each particular market. I do not have the time to comment on every single market and you cannot make a comment of the Dow and apply to another index any more than gold applies to silver or platinum. They are all different. Socrates is there for a reason. It is objective without bias and is not written by any person – it is totally computer generated which is a good thing in times like this. We all have our prejudices that can get in the way of objectivity. That is why people sell the low and buy highs.

We definitely have to be careful here for it is true that only fools rush in where wise men dare not tread. With all the chaos in the world, these people who think they missed everything with the NASDAQ rally merely illustrates how naive they are to even think the market can rally from here with no problems because some states are opening up. They will simply become the fuel for the moves ahead.

 

Those are the people who inevitably buy the high because they get so caught up always at the top. The pattern which seems to get the emotions flowing the most is always the Knee-Jerk Reaction before the high. This is often the strongest type of move just before the high which sucks them all in at the top thinking this is it and here we go. They want to pretend to be investors, but then they want to really trade every move.

When we look at the German DAX, there we have elected ALL FOUR Monthly Bearish Reversals from the February high but we also elected a Quarterly Bearish Reversal at the end of March. This is a clear warning that we have a very serious shift in the trend moving forward into 2022. We have not elected any Quarterly Bearish Reversal in the Dow, there is obviously a major shift in trend within the US v externally even with the lockdown.

We are NOT ahead of schedule. June remains a Directional Change and July is the next key target. We then have the 2020 elections coming and that will have a major impact upon the confidence behind the dollar into 2022.

Nobody is capable of forecasting this type of market from a gut perspective. This is the entire reason you need to look at Socrates per market and not assume anything. This is something that cannot be judged even fundamentally because there are so many things changing only a fool will assume they can see the future reducing everything to a single cause and effect.

So far, there is nothing that suggests the trend has accelerated. The swings are still within historical movements. The NASDAQ is different for its low was 2002 not 2009. Obviously, you cannot apply the same outlook to the NASDAQ as you see in the S&P500 or the Dow. To each its own, as they say.

We are creating a new index with 30 stocks to reflect the Paradigm Equity Shift. We are working on a special report to cover this event since it is the first time it has taken place since the 1930s.

Now Climate Change is Cause of Death!


Well. if they can record fake COVID-19 deaths, what’s next? You got it. Anyone who dies from heat exhaustion they want to have attributed to a death caused by Climate Change!

Why not! Your air conditioner broke, hey cause of death – Climate Change. Your heater broke or they cut off the fossil fuels, hey – that’s a Climate Change death! Sounds good for the election campaign.

Buffett Sold All Airlines in Advance


 

Calls to add ‘climate change’ to death certificates – New study demands ‘climate change’ be added as ‘pre-existing condition’


More Crazy Climate Nonsense!

Marc Morano image

Re-posted from the Canada Free Press By  —— Bio and ArchivesMay 22, 2020

Adding climate change’ to death certificates

Professors in academia are touting a new study that is being used to call for “climate change” to be added as a cause of death on death certificates. “Climate change is a killer, but we don’t acknowledge it on death certificates,” co-author Dr. Arnagretta Hunter, from The Australian National University (ANU) Medical School, said. The study was published May 20, 2020 in The Lancet Planetary Health.

Given the focus on COVID-19 infection rates and death tolls, it appears the climate activists in academia may want in on the scary and emotional death toll counts in order to draw attention back to their climate cause.

Hunter explained: “There is second component on a death certificate which allows for pre-existing conditions and other factors. “If you have an asthma attack and die during heavy smoke exposure from bushfires, the death certificate should include that information.”

“Climate change is a killer, but we don’t acknowledge it on death certificates,” co-author Dr Arnagretta Hunter, from The Australian National University (ANU) Medical School, said. “There is second component on a death certificate which allows for pre-existing conditions and other factors.

“If you have an asthma attack and die during heavy smoke exposure from bushfires, the death certificate should include that information. We can make a diagnosis of disease like coronavirus, but we are less literate in environmental determinants like hot weather or bushfire smoke.” … 

“Climate change is the single greatest health threat that we face globally even after we recover from coronavirus,” Dr. Hunter said.

“We can make a diagnosis of disease like coronavirus, but we are less literate in environmental determinants like hot weather or bushfire smoke.” …  “Climate change is the single greatest health threat that we face globally even after we recover from coronavirus,” Dr. Hunter said.The study claims: “Death certification needs to be modernized, indirect causes should be reported, with all death certification prompting for external factors contributing to death, and these death data must be coupled with large-scale environmental datasets so that impact assessments can be done.”

Statistician Dr. Matt Briggs reacted this way: “They discovered a way to boost fear and keep control!” Briggs added, “Daily body counts blasted from the evil media, ‘Over 100 people died from climate change today, raising questions about … blah blah…’”

But the climate skeptic blog Tallbloke was not receptive to claims that “climate change” should be added to death certificates. “Climate alarmists yet again strain credulity to the limit, no doubt hoping to stir up guilt in the populace about energy use,” the blog noted.

A comment on the Tallbloke blog also ridiculed the study’s claims, noting: “Australia must have a lot of health threats if the ‘single greatest’ one accounts for 2% of the mortality rate.”

Climate fueled Cannibalism?

If “climate change” becomes a cause of death listed on birth certificates, it could result in some interesting reading. Many climate activists have claimed that “global warming” will lead to cannibalism. See: Warnings of climate cannibalism are nothing new: Ted Turner in 2008 warned that AGW survivors ‘will be cannibals’ & Paul Ehrlich warned in 2014 that ‘climate change’ will force humans to ‘eat bodies of dead’

 

The US Share Market Behind the Scenes


October WEC 2019

QUESTION: I noticed going over your blogs that Socrates picked up the divergence between the Nasdaq and the other indexes you commented on before the crash began. I understand you do not have the time to comment on every market and it is best to follow what Socrates writes. But you said at the conference this was unusual and you said it would be a crash that was a combination of 1998 and 2008. Something just does not smell right with the markets as you commented before. Do you have any additional insight as to what is unfolding?

GPK

At this time, there is an all-out war in the financial markets with the Climate Change Activists trying to force major funds to divest of anything that produces CO2. This is undoubtedly a deliberate crash that has been orchestrated with respect to the magnitude of the decline – not when. The computer was picking up these subtle changes beginning last August 2019. As I have said many times, it cannot tell me the person, it can only show the machinations behind the scenes.

Hong Kong Peg to Crack in June?


China’s Communist Party will impose a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong during the annual meeting of its top political body, criminalizing “foreign interference” along with secessionist activities and subversion of state power. This is directed at the protests for independence. It is a very dramatic and bold move that unquestionably undermines Hong Kong’s autonomy. This will threaten Hong Kong as a global financial hub and is already impacting the HK$ peg which may break in June.

This has been a 23-year run under the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed the territory to enjoy a level of autonomy. That is coming to an end. Hong Kong’s political freedoms have been eroding, but now Beijing signaled that the national security law will be a new tool that allows it to directly tackle the political dissent that erupted on Hong Kong’s streets last year.

Hong Kong has been able to hang on thanks to the US Federal Reserve cutting rates. While this has eased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar in the midst of this deepening political crisis intermixed with the Coronavirus Pandemic everyone is using for political gains globally, the clock is ticking on the peg.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is clearly running out of options. Under this new threat from the political changes, the question is how long its currency can hold the line appears shorter by the Day. For the past 37 years, the city has run a managed peg, tying the Hong Kong currency to the US dollar after a long stint being tied to the British pound. Right now, the greenback trades in a narrow band between HK$7.75-7.85.

Traditionally, when a nation pegs its currency to another, then the differences in market interest rates should be marginal at best. However, this interest rate spread between the greenback and the Hong Kong market rates is warning that the economic differences are surfacing. The demand for the Hong Kong dollar is shifting, and this brings the currency in short supply given the economic contraction due to the virus. Add this new political shift and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will have little choice but to increase the supply of Hong Kong dollars in an effort to support the economy and try to prevent interest rates from rise in the face of a new political risk.

The pressure to crack the peg will begin in June.

Socrates & the Paradigm Equity Shift


QUESTION: Marty; Thank you so much for Socrates and the private blog. Most analysts only focus on price. Very few understand time. I get it how you try to keep that on the private blog for Gates and crew seem to be using your timing to have known when to act. I sure hope you are right that Gates may have reached the peak of his career in April.

It is fascinating how Socrates has been very bullish electing bullish reversal after reversal in the Nasdaq but not the Dow and S&P500. Your analysis of this paradigm shift is very enlightening. It takes someone with a historical understanding to even see this right before your eyes. Thank you again.

When will you have your indexes available? Soon I hope?

HW

ANSWER: Yes. We are working on that because this is part of the incredible paradigm equity shift in how markets are functioning. The last time this took place was the 1930s. It is on top of the whole capital flow issue internationally. This is a serious paradigm equity shift with the share markets that must be understood moving forward. This is a very profound change in the structure of the market that is so critical to grasp in order to invest properly into the years ahead.

We are putting this all together in a global share market report that will include more than just the US. These are very trying times.

Spain & Climate Change Agenda Merged with Virus Agenda


COMMENT: Hi Marty,

Hope you’re well.

Still in lockdown… there are now strict time slots when people (based on age, etc) can leave home (unless they’re going to work or to do grocery shopping), A few regions (the islands, basically) have relaxed the rules more, but not the large cities and more populated provinces. At any rate, from tomorrow there will be an obligation to wear a mask everywhere (except at home), even on the street (!)… and since there’s no way I’m gonna wear a mask I guess I’ll just have to stay home – or get fined by a regime goon in uniform.

The govt has now unveiled a new climate law they are planning on passing soon. Couldn’t make this shit up… a total ban on all hydrocarbon mining and projects; a minimum of 70% of all electricity must come from renewables by 2030 (and 100% by 2050) – nuclear not allowed either; cars must be zero-emission (so only electric cars will be allowed) by 2040; everyone must consume vastly less energy/electricity (at least 35% less) by 2030; from 2023 all cities (over 50,000 inhabitants) will have to have “low emission zones” i.e. zones free of cars (people are to use public transport or bicycles), etc etc.

They say this is necessary to fight “global warming” [they still call it global warming here; guess they missed the memo that it’s now “climate change”] and that this is a great way to get an economic recovery and create millions of jobs over the next few years. LOLOLOL.

For a brief English summary of this insanity (The English article only mentions some of the measures.)

Take care.
P (from Spain)

REPLY: Europe will use this virus as the excuse to usher in the Green Peace agenda. It is looking more and more that this is why Greta was invited to the World Economic Forum to use a 16-year old expert in everything to sell this Climate Change Agenda. I have stated that I had INSIDE INFORMATION that they were selling everything because a “virus” was coming, weeks before people ever heard of this coronavirus. They sold stocks and bonds and moved to cash. This is why I warned in January that this was a FAKE manipulation that was taking place.

We are dealing with real elitists who regard the rest of us as stupid toys to play with — the great UNWASHED! They push their agenda to alter the entire world economy NOW without any regard for the consequences to the people. They have no regard for all the jobs they are destroying and if people cannot find employment, we are back to “let them eat” the crust in the pan when they are finished eating in luxury. This is the very same elitist attitude that inspired the French Revolution.

Even the European Central Bank has switched and made Climate Change its “top” priority. This is not part of what a central bank is supposed to do. This agenda is because they adopted negative interest rates in 2014 that they now cannot escape. They MUST change the topic and then try to sell “Green Bonds” at higher rates because they can no longer raise rates without blowing up the budgets of the EU. Additionally, they have been trying to sell Eurobonds. They cannot escape the disaster they have created so they are now moving to Climate Change to try to relaunch the economy they have destroyed because negative interest rates were a poison pill — not the cure.

Their models on Climate Change are as accurate as they were from the Imperial College used by Neil Ferguson — a complete fraud! They are linear based and disregard that weather NEVER operates in a linear pattern as it is cyclical. The entire Chaos Theory emerged from Lorenz who was running weather data through the computer and stumbled upon the hidden order behind what appeared to be chaos.

This is the chart they use to claim the world will become extinct in 5 years to justify destroying Western Society in one fell swoop. It has been taken from the book that began this nonsense. But the chart in that book also showed, with a questionable theoretical computer model to “guess” what CO2 would have been historical, that we were at a historical low in CO2 and an uptick is NOT the end of the world as these people suggest.

What made the Great Depression so GREAT was the Dust Bowl. That wiped out the agricultural industry that employed 40% of the workforce. Today, these people have created the same economic devastation but far worse.

The industry they are wiping out is the SERVICEindustry which currently employs just under 80% of the economy. They understand NOTHINGabout the economy and could care less about the people. There are too many of us anyhow! It is all about them and their STUPID fake models that are never recognizing cyclical analysis.

This will lead to massive civil unrest and war. They have set in motion the culmination of this trend Socrates has been projecting into 2032. We are hearing from Germany and other states that people should NOT travel for vacation. That will wipe out Southern Europe which counts on tourism in the summer. There goes Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. This Climate Change agenda is beyond comprehension.

Is 2020 the End of a Energy Trend or the Beginning of a New Trend for Climate Change Advocates?


QUESTION: Marty; I see that Socrates’ forecast for oil in 2020 was a major turning point. All the reversals worked great. But my question is, do you think with this 2020 turning point that this climate change agenda of Bill Gates will fail if oil bottoms here in 2020?

GA

ANSWER: The array picked up 2020 nicely and it was also a Directional Change. But note that we also have a Directional Change in 2021 and the next turning point in 2023. So far all indications are that they will fail in eliminating fossil fuels. Socrates sold even the high just before the Crash. It appears as stated at the WEC,  this is the culmination of the trend, and this cycle into the peak of this 8.6-year wave should be a commodity boom but one based upon shortages and currency because we are headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle for 2021-2022.

So just looking at crude by itself shows that this should be the culmination of a trend rather than the start of a trend as Gates and others would like to profess. That said, the excess in supply is real because they have shut down the global economy with lockdowns which have reduced driving and air travel while also shipping has been disrupted. So 2020 should be at the very least the lowest yearly close.

However, the consequences of a crash in commodity prices typically result in destruction also of the productive capacity. This will happen at the low in Gold or any commodity. We are witnessing that right now in both energy and agriculture. “$30 is already quite bad, but once you get to $20 or even $10, it’s a complete nightmare,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. Energy companies at the greatest risk of bankruptcy are Callon Petroleum, Chesapeake Energy,Diamond Offshore, and Occidental Petroleum. The more we see energy companies in trouble, the faster we will cut off the excess supply which will be part of the cycle which helps to create the low.

Ironically, creditors are backing off because pushing these companies into bankruptcy means that the creditors will end up with even fewer assets because dumping everything on the market at these prices will create a cascade failure. This is a very interesting dilemma because it is systemic across the industry rather than a single mismanaged company in distress.

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, April 2020 Data


From the attached report on climate change for April 2020 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 31.0% from 1958 to April of 2020. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 31.0% which is 78 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE 2020-04