Posted originally on Jan 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

The Russian Foreign Ministry on Thursday rejected the latest US-backed offering to end the Russia-Ukraine war, issuing a damming rebuff that illustrates that Putin would have to be insane to accept any peace deal at this stage in the game with Ukraine because it would NEVER resolve this conflict. Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed the US-European proposal for security assurances for Ukraine, saying the protection plan amounts to “a true axis of war.” This is what I warned about on the Private Blog.

I warned that with the UK and France sending in troops as soon as a ceasefire is agreed was a guarantee that no such ceasefire would take place for this would be effectively sending in NATO troops into Ukraine. Europe has ZERO intension of EVER seeking peace or a normal relationship with Russia returning to the world economy. This is a guarantee of PERMANENT war. Russia’s comment was clear:

“The document turned out to be extremely far from a peace settlement. The declaration is not aimed at achieving a lasting peace and security but rather at continuing the militarization, escalation and further conflict aggravation.” “Its core element is the deployment of ‘a multinational force’ on Ukrainian territory that the coalition will have to form to contribute to the ‘rebuilding’ of the Ukrainian armed forces and ‘support deterrence’ following the cessation of the hostilities.”

The Ukrainian long-range strike campaign has continued hitting Russian oil, military and infrastructure targets. Importantly, for a 48-hour period this week, the Ukrainians were able to shut down all of the airports in the Moscow region and force the Russians to shut down their mobile phone networks across the same area. Given the massive population of the Russian capital, this will be noticed by the populace. Ukraine is is claiming it is defeating Russia shutting down Moscow’s airports and mobile networks for two days. That’s the action of a country with operational capability striking deep into enemy territory with impunity using targeting from the United States and UK. Clearly, this is like hiring a contract killer to eliminate someone and then claiming you did not pull the trigger. Ukraine has no long-range targeting capability without eyes in the sky.

The Venezuela Invasion:

The Monroe Doctrine was a cornerstone U.S. foreign policy statement, proclaimed by President James Monroe in his annual address to Congress on December 2nd, 1823. It declared the Western Hemisphere closed to future European colonization and interference, while pledging that the United States would not interfere in existing European colonies or in the internal affairs of Europe. Donald Trump has essentially asserted the same doctrine targeting both China and Russia to expel them from this hemisphere.

Ironically, to be objective, that justifies Russia taking all of Ukraine and it also justifies China taking Taiwan. We can’t have it both ways. But the Neocons see the US as dominating the world whereas Trump’s Chief of Staff Miller recognized that the world is divided among three empires – US, Russia, and China.

China’s Foreign Ministry has responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he’d be “very unhappy” if Beijing attacked Taiwan.

“Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. How to resolve the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese ourselves. … This is China’s internal affair that brooks no external interference.”

What China will do now is most likely, if I were them, would impose a total embargo preventing anything from leaving or entering. I would suspect that it would take about 90 days. I would suspect that China has just been given the Green Light thanks to Donald’s Doctrine. They could act as soon as April.

The Tanker Seizure:

American Coast Guard and military forces (assisted by the UK) undertook a boarding operation to seize one of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers, the Bella 1, in the north Atlantic. This vessel was sanctioned by the U.S. under its counter-Iran sanctions, aimed at stopping Iran from fueling instability in the Middle East through the profits of illegal oil sales and was linked to international terrorism and crime including Hezbollah. Yet this is debatable. The ship went through the Suez Canal and a ship of this size could only do so if it was empty.

The United States with the aid of the UK just boarded and seized a Russian-flagged vessel on the high seas. Russia did nothing but the US agreed to send the two Russian crew members to Russia. This was clearly a strong-arm tactic against Russia. John Healey made the dumbest bullshit excuse I have ever heard in 50 years. How does an empty tanker on its way to Russia threaten Britain and the British people? This is the most absurd excuse I have ever heard. Then any empty tanker on its way to to or from Russia on the high seas threatens the British people?

The Strategic Message: Weakness Disguised as Strength

NATO is now claiming that Putin fired an Oreshnik at Lviv—a city less than 70 kilometers from the Polish border and NATO territory. The message was supposed to be: “We have hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles and we’re willing to use them close to NATO borders. Be afraid.” They are spinning this as Russia needed to demonstrate military capability because its credibility had collapsed across multiple theaters simultaneously. Venezuela, Syria, Iran—every Russian client is falling or under severe pressure. The shadow fleet is being seized. Ukrainian drones are shutting down Moscow. NATO insists that their military analysts are skeptical of Oreshnik’s actual battlefield value. While Putin keeps warning about nuclear war, they insist that this is all hype and pay no attention because they can take Russia with one hand tied behind their back.

The Oreshnik strike is the military equivalent of shouting “I’m still relevant!” while everyone watches Putin lose influence globally. NATO wasn’t impressed. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the strike shows that “Putin doesn’t want peace” and called it “meant as a warning to Europe and to the U.S.” Kallas is as ruthless as Zelensky. She represents why there can NEVER be any peace with Russia.

Kallas has openly called for the destruction of Russia. She has stated that Russia is too big and needs to be broken up. She personally hates Russians not much different from Zelensky. This remains as a major obstacle to peace.

The U.S.-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine have entered a pivotal stage and is exposing that there will NEVER be peace between the EU abd Russia. This is critical. Peace negotiations are at this point pointless for the EU is seeking to install NATO troops into Ukraine under the pretense of peace-keeping when in fact it was Kiev that started this war 0 not Putin nor Russia.

John McCain, the godfather of Neocons, was there advocating the revolution in 2014 and lied to the people telling them this was about them and nobody else and it was about the peace that they deserved. There was peace with Russia. I believe McCain hated Russians because he was captured in Vietnam and was broken reading propaganda for the Vietnamese.

Robert McNamara admitted before he died that they assumed Russia was behind Vietnam but they were wrong. This has infected the Neocons who have grown up hating Russians all on a false assumption. This is what colored the Cold War and it is to this day warning that the European Union is seeking World War III because of people like Kallas who are wrapped up in personal hatred that she cannot see that she is condemning Europe and this EU experiment to its final destruction.

The Larger Pattern: The Cycle of Escalation

Russia used the Oreshnik missile on Lviv overnight January 8-9, 2026, hitting an underground gas storage facility in the first ballistic missile strike on Ukraine’s western region. This marks only the second use of Russia’s newest intermediate-range weapon system.Lviv is significant because it’s Ukraine’s westernmost major city—less than 70 kilometers from the border with the European Union. Hitting it with a nuclear-capable missile sends an unmistakable message to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania: You’re within range despite NATO saying don’t worry.

But don’t be distracted by the technical capabilities or the psychological warfare. Focus on the strategic context: Russia deployed this weapon after suffering humiliating failures in Venezuela, Syria, and even Moscow itself. The strike represents Russia responding to the Donald Doctrine.  NATO wants to claim this is an act of desperation or weakness. But this is boasting their strength and desire to invade Russia as soon as they can.

NATO insists that the mathematics show that Russia’s global position is weakening across multiple theaters simultaneously. Its client states are falling. Its deterrence is failing. Its economic warfare through shadow fleets is being countered. And its response is to fire expensive, irreplaceable missiles at gas storage facilities to prove it’s still dangerous.

However, if we assume that Russia is now weakened dramatically, then the behavior of a declining power trying to convince everyone—including itself—that it still matters is far worse. Like a wounded animal, it will fight to the death and is most dangerous when cornered. There are two sides to that coin.

The cycle suggests further escalation is coming. NATO likes to project Russia is just a injured fly to be swatted. When Kallas tried to threaten China to abandon Russia, Wang Yi respectfully stated that China had no intention of standing idly by and watching Russia lose. He stated that China believes that if Russia were defeated, the EU and NATO would turn on China next. This idea that the EU and NATO can destroy and break up Russia with no other impact is the linear thinking of madmen.

The NEOCONS have won. They used Ukraine to revive the Cold War that they want to make RED HOT. This has all been forecast by our computer and it is certainly nothing I would like to see. This is not my OPINION. I have long hoped that if I scream loud enough then perhaps I could prevent it. That has been a fool’s dream. I have never been able to defeat the computer yet.

Watch the next days carefully into February and then April followed by June/July. If peace talks are more likely to break down, and I would expect more Oreshnik strikes or similar escalatory moves. I just find it curious that NATO keeps claiming Russia is weak and there is no threat. They seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth.