For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy has been elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years…. Then came the era of Trump.
We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of policy shifted. CTH outlined statistical and measurable KPI’s that would become visible in the space between the policy shifts.
Part of those discussions focused on energy costs, product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis (actual outcomes), before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q2 of 2018, which is April-June 2018. Well:
(Via CNBC) […] The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April closed with 6.7 million job openings. May ended with just over 6 million people the BLS classifies as unemployed, continuing a trend this year that has seen openings eclipse the labor pool for the first time. At some point that gap will have to close. Economists expect that employers are going to have to start doing more to entice workers, likely through pay raises, training and other incentives.
“Pressure is building for employers, and both hard data and anecdotal reports indicate that wage pressures are building,” Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said in a note. “With the economy still humming, employers are able to justify stronger wage increases to retain or attract talent, but it’s becoming a more challenging proposition.”
Most inflation measures are at 2 percent or more now, and are likely to continue rising. Companies are reporting record profits, but could find themselves constrained by a double-short of inflation, both from wages and rising costs due to escalating trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners.
“How much might rising labor costs chew into corporate profits? How much will be passed through to customers in the form of higher prices? That remains to be seen,” Baird said. “Rising labor costs will boost take home pay, but we’re also all likely to see the effect in rising prices for goods and services.”
Those are all issues the Federal Reserve will have to weigh as well. (read more)
What’s predictably fun to watch is how leading economists and national economic influence agents continue to be perplexed as we flow through the space between these two economic engines. Deep inside this new dimension, which will last for approximately 24 months, the control agents within the Fed cannot figure out why inflation remains low, yet the economy is heating up.
They really don’t get it.
They don’t get it because they have no reference points.
The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street. They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.
The investing class economy, ie. another name for a ‘service-driven economy’, has been the only source of historic reference for approximately three decades. These talking heads convinced themselves that a “service driven economy” was the ONLY economy ever possible for the U.S. in the future.
Back in January 2017 Deutsche Bank began thinking about it, applying new models, trying to conceptualize and quantify MAGAnomics, and trying to walk out the potential ramifications. They began talking about Trump doubling the U.S. GDP growth rate when all U.S. investment groups couldn’t yet fathom the possibility.
It’s like waking up on Christmas morning every day to see the pontificating Fed struggling to quantify analysis of their surrounding reality based on flawed assumptions. They simply have no understanding of what happens within the new dimension.
Monetary policy, Fed control over the economy, is disconnected and will stay that way for approximately another 12-14 months, until Main Street regains full operational strength –and– economic parity is achieved.
As we have continued to share, CTH believes the paycheck-to-paycheck working middle-class are going to see a considerable rise in wages and standard of living. How high can wages rise?… that depends on the pressure; and right now the pressure is massive. I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see 10 to 20% increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors.
Winnamins. We’ll need lots of them…
Forget minimum wage laws, they are inconsequential conversations when measured against the reality of how quickly wages rise in a free, fair, unregulated and growing economy.
Seriously, with full measure of optimism and appreciation – and tears of thankfulness that we are alive to experience it – these are exceptional times.
Today President Donald Trump holds a MAGA rally at the Four Seasons Arena in Great Falls, Montana. Part of the rally objective is to boost Republican Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale in November’s election for the Senate seat currently held by Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester. Tester led a ridiculous smear campaign against the former White House doctor and Veterans Affairs nominee, Ronny Jackson.
Topics during the rally will likely cover: the upcoming Supreme Court nomination; the ongoing trade initiatives of the administration; the continued benefits from the tax cut and reform program; as well as other key MAGA initiatives. Anticipated speech time 6:00pm EDT with pre-rally speakers earlier in the program.
Last month the White House presented a 36-page outline of the U.S. position toward trade with China (full pdf below). White House National Trade Council and Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Director Peter Navarro delivers a presentation to discuss that report. Very well worth watching:
President Donald J Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence host an independence day picnic at the White House for administration officials and military families.
Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky delivers a message to celebrate the Fourth of July, Independence Day.
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Reflecting on liberty through Senator Rand Paul’s last year (2017 through 2018):
♦ Shot at while practicing for a congressional baseball game.
♦ Attacked in his front yard while mowing his lawn; hospitalized.
♦ Family threatened by mad man with an axe; recently arrested.
The colonies had been in conflict with England for over a year in June of 1776. A Continental Congress convened in Philadelphia on June 7 of that year. Richard Henry Lee from Virginia offered up a resolution with these now famous words:
“Resolved: That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved.”
Lee’s words spurred the drafting of the Declaration of Independence. A committee of five was appointed to draft a statement making the case for the colonies, a statement to the world of the intent and the reason behind that intent.
Members of the Committee were John Adams of Massachusetts, Roger Sherman of Connecticut, Benjamin Franklin of Pennsylvania, Robert R. Livingston of New York and Thomas Jefferson of Virginia. Jefferson took on the task of actually drafting the document as we know it today.
The Continental Congress reconvened on July 1, 1776, and on the following day, the resolution for independence by Lee was adopted by 12 of the 13 colonies, with New York not voting. Minor changes were made to the Jefferson document.
Work on the document continued through July 3 and into the afternoon of July 4, when the Declaration was officially adopted by the Congress. Of the 13 colonies, nine voted in favor of the Declaration, two — Pennsylvania and South Carolina — voted No, Delaware was undecided and New York again abstained.
As we all know, John Hancock, President of the Congress made his signature large enough for King George to read “without his spectacles.”
IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. – That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, – That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. – Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.
The complete list of those who signed were:
John Hancock (president of the Continental Congress), Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry, Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery, Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott, William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris, Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark, Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross, Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean, Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton, George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton, William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn, Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton, Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, and George Walton.
Check out this link for the sobering fate of many of those who so pledged their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor. H/T to TheOriginalG-d&Country for this source.
Those are the facts about our Declaration of Independence, the history that we as school children have learned since the creation of this great nation that we celebrate, that we love and honor so.
Usually we humans can’t adequately find words to express our own sentiments, let alone those of a nation and successive generations to come, but Jefferson and that Continental Congress did just that.
The words have stood throughout several centuries as a clarion call for freedom, for breaking free of tyranny, for men to put aside their individual causes and join together to battle for the right of every man, woman and child together to become a people united in goal and resolve.
Today as we celebrate, today as we pledge allegiance to a flag that has gone from 13 stars to 50, may we remember not only the sacrifice, but the resolve. May we honor not only the words, but the unity and deeds of our forefathers. May each of us dig deep into our hearts and work out our differences for the betterment of our nation and our children and grandchildren.
Say a prayer for America today. Rekindle hope today. Honor the past by determining the future.
Please remember that this is a post in honor of our Independence Day. No political content, no rants, so slamming the other side. Today we are just Americans, honoring our country and each other.
Thanks to asawasa for posting this on another thread. I wanted to add it here.
West Virginia Governor Jim Justice welcomes President Donald J. Trump at the Salute to Service Dinner at the Greenbrier Resort as part of A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier. Anticipated speech 6:45pm EDT:
Pontificating economic globalists are stuck between empirical good news and their preferred anti-Trump tariff narrative. Economic media like the Wall Street Journal are filled with angst, as Trump’s manufacturing MAGAnomics continues to destroy their decades-long talking points and globalist preferences.
The analysis of June factory and manufacturing indicators from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) highlight an expanding reality: increased production, increased new orders, increased employment, and demand outpacing supplies and transportation capacity. Yes, all of this means the Main Street U.S. economic engine is firing on all cylinders. We can only imagine what the Q2 numbers will reflect when it’s all rolled up.
ISM DATA – “Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index at 60 percent or above for the 14th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low. The Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, reading at 60 percent of higher for the third consecutive month. Consumption, described as production and employment, continues to expand in spite of labor, skill and material shortages.
What does this mean in blue collar language? Short term: OVERTIME pay folks…. maximum earnings possibilities as demand for factory and manufacturing has all employment working maximum production shifts. Long term: upward wage pressure, jobs, jobs, jobs.
For the Truck Drivers? Work, work, work. You got a rig, they need it hauled. Everywhere.
Cont…. Inputs, expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports, had expansion increases, due primarily to negative supply chain issues. Lead-time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue. Export orders expanded at higher rates (read more)
Inventory backlogs, “supply chain issues” equals not enough drivers and haulers to keep up with production shipment demand. Thirst for raw materials. “Supplier labor issues”, sources of raw materials and ancillary origination parts are having a hard time staffing up for the demand. Yup, more upward blue collar wage pressure. “Transportation difficulties“, again, Truckers and shippers in high demand.
Do you know how many countries would love to have these problems? All of ’em.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 