Understanding Insurrections for Dummies


Armstron Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Rise in Violence – Who to Blame?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Texas school shooting is a politician’s dream, for they suddenly can pretend to care and look authoritative, the real culprit here, I fear, has been the COVID-19 lockdowns. What government will not talk about is the statistics. Homicides increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020. Overall, violence and aggravated assaults have increased.

The homicide rates normally increase in the summer months. The real culprit may be the additional social interaction that happens when people spend more time outdoors during the summer months, NewsNation reports. There’s simply a greater number of interactions happening, which means there are also more opportunities for them to go awry.

Everywhere we look, homicides are up. In Chicago, 228 people have been killed this year alone. In Philadelphia, over 200 homicides have already taken place in 2022. Houston exceeded 100 homicides so far in 2022.

The National Library of Medicine reported a drastic increase in homicides post-lockdowns in Peru. Even CNN reported that a series of homicides took place during the first six months of  2021. In 22 cities, the number of murders increased by 16% or greater compared to the same period in 2020 and by 42% compared to the first six months of 2019.

So while the elites are listening to Klaus Schwab, who will probably become an evil villain for a future movie, there is ZERO understanding of human nature. The sharp rise in homicides is NOT because of guns; lockdowns have driven many to extreme behavior and stress. There was a man killed over an argument involving a parking spot. I have a friend who worked in an office in Philadelphia. The violence is so great and random that the staff no longer need to go into the office.

Monkeypox is less deadly than smallpox, with a mortality rate below 4 percentNevertheless, there are those in governments actually talking about lockdown 2.0. Johns Hopkins University reported, “Lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe had little or no impact in reducing deaths from COVID-19, according to a new analysis. The lockdowns during the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 reduced COVID-19 mortality by about 0.2%, said a broad review of multiple scientific studies. We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality,” the researchers wrote.

I can say that I was tested for COVID-19 five times, and all were negative. I was still thrown into a COVID wing in the hospital, and when I explained I knew nobody with COVID, I was told that it did not matter. The nurses said it could travel in the air or I could have contracted it from pumping gas into my car. So I asked, “Do masks do not work?” They said, “Pretty much.” I asked why I needed TWO negative tests to be released. “Does one test not work?” They admitted that the tests were invalid. So after FIVE negative tests, they said, “OK, but we still think you had it.”

Another friend said his son in his early 20s is lost. Since the lockdowns, he stayed in his room, glued to social media. He will no longer have a conversation with his father. These lockdowns not only FAILED to work, but they appear to have caused significant damage psychologically to many, and the stress appears to have manifested in violence. It is time we face the fact that guns do not kill — people do. We need to respect what is taking place and stop the experiments for political power. Our computer’s forecast of a rise in civil unrest is manifesting before our very eyes.

Bear Spray Doesn’t Work Like Bug Spray


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Menagerie 

h/t WeeWeed

This made me think about really dumb things I’ve seen people say or do over the years. You know, the ones that are just a head and shoulders above the usual.

While I’m quite sure every profession has their own share of stupidity, years of working in retail management left me convinced that a huge number of people have no common sense whatsoever, and as most of us know, common sense is often inversely related to IQ. And education!

Here is perhaps my all time favorite unbelievably dumb story. You’re going to think I’m making this up, and it was an attempt at a joke, or someone trying to aggravate me. I promise you, it wasn’t.

Before I went into retail sales and then management, I sold building materials wholesale. My favorite part of that was selling millwork, in particular high end windows and doors like Marvin and Kolbe & Kolbe. There are dozens of details that must be exactly right when dealing with a large custom order of windows and doors, and any mistake can result in the windows not fitting, or other costly problems. Because of the complexity and expense of Marvin orders, most of my retailers simply refused to deal with their own customers and always had me deal directly with the orders.

One of the lumber yards in town had a guy who just wasn’t too bright, and he was kind of treated like the unpopular kid in school by his fellow salesmen. He was a challenge to deal with because he had a way of making errors happen and also promising his customers things that could not be delivered. I wish now, looking back, that I’d been more patient with him, not that I was cruel or unkind. But he sure made my job extra hard. Anyhow, there’s no one left after thirty plus years to harm in an anonymous story.

One job he sold had a pair of french doors in the great room. They were to be placed at the end of the long room, one on either side of a center fireplace, so naturally there was one of each hand. A few days after the order was delivered he called me in a panic, insisting I meet him at the job site to discuss a major problem with the contractor. When I asked him what the problems was, he told me the doors were the wrong hand, both of them.

I never did find out for sure if the contractor and his employees were as dumb as the salesmen or making him the butt of a bad joke. Of course I suspect the latter, but I worked with some really, really dumb contractors too.

I can’t tell you how many times they came in to Home Depot and told me they needed to know how much siding they needed for a 2,000 square foot house. Or how many roof shingles, also giving me square footage without roof pitch and other pertinent information.

Share your best stories, be they professional or from some other walk of like. It’s time to toss a little fun in the day.

How the Democratic Party Abandoned Liberals | Dave Rubin | POLITICS | Rubin Report


Re posted from the The Rubin Report  Published on Rumble on May 20, 2022 

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks to Tucker Carlson, Lewis Howes, Larry King, and the Babylon Bee about why the Democratic party is turning so many liberals into conservatives in this special “best of” episode. Was Dave Rubin ahead of the curve for leaving the left? As identity politics and the oppression olympics destroy the Democratic party, many more Democrats are being turned towards conservatism and classical liberalism. Whether it’s trainings about intersectionality in the workplace or talk of reparations for slavery no one can run away from woke politics any more. Dave discusses what he learned about systemic racism from Larry Elder, and why collective guilt and victimhood culture are pushing many on a similar political journey.

Pennsylvania Senate Republican Race is a Dead Heat as Candidates Make Closing Arguments


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The republican primary race in Pennsylvania is essentially a three-way tie going in to voting day tomorrow.  All three of the top candidates are carrying approximately 25 percent of the vote with around 15 percent still undecided.   It really is anyone’s race.

President Trump has sent robocalls into Pennsylvania to support Mehmet Oz as a last-minute effort to push his endorsement over the line. “I’ve just spent a lot of time with him. I did endorse him, and the reason is he’s tough, he’s smart and he really loves our country and he wants to do a great job for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”

Fox News Sean Hannity also hosted Mehmet Oz on his evening broadcast to deliver his closing arguments, while Fox News Laura Ingraham provided the same opportunity for David McCormick.  In the counterbalancing effort, Steve Bannon hosted Kathy Barnette for an interview Monday providing her the opportunity to speak to the Bannon audience.

The wild aspect to this race is the still high number of undecided voters as the final hours count down.   McCormick representing the party candidate, with both Oz and Barnette splitting the MAGA base.  Pennsylvania undecideds have a tough decision.

Mehmet Oz is not trusted by the base despite President Trump’s endorsement.  Kathy Barnette is the landing place for many base voters who do not want to support the establishment McCormick and cannot bring themselves to vote for Oz.  However, democrats and left-wing media are already showing their intent to weaponize Barnette’s attendance at the J6 rally in Washington DC, if she should win the primary {Video Here}.

As expected, David McCormick’s current position tying all three of them at the top of the polling, appears to have resulted as a splitter strategy from the fractured MAGA base.

Many people just cannot support Mehmet Oz because of his prior positions on issues of importance.  Oz is by far President Trump’s most controversial endorsement of the year.  As an outcome, those who refuse to vote for Oz lean heavily toward Kathy Barnette.

(Via Politico) – […] “You are seeing people move to McCormick because he is a trustworthy conservative,” said James Schultz, a former Trump White House lawyer who is close to McCormick’s campaign. “We have seen for this entire cycle Mehmet Oz’s struggle with the truth. With Barnette, there have been many questions surrounding her truthfulness as well.”

Messaging from McCormick’s campaign on Monday appeared to concede that he is one of multiple candidates crowded at the front of the pack. The campaign wrote in an election eve press release that McCormick would make the case to Republicans that he is “the only front-runner who grew up in Pennsylvania and shares the same conservative values as PA voters.”

A series of other twists in recent days have added to the sense of volatility ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the leading Democratic Senate candidate, remains hospitalized after suffering a stroke over the weekend. And Trump, on Saturday weighed in with a last-minute endorsement in the governor’s race, picking Doug Mastriano, the candidate who is publicly backing and campaigning with Barnette.  (read more)

This race will be very interesting to watch on Tuesday as the votes come in.  However, with the race so close, and with all three of the leading candidates willing to request a recount, we might not even know the results tomorrow.


Project Veritas Releases Video of Senior Twitter Engineer Describing Culture and Ideology of The Platform


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance 

A senior engineer working for the Twitter social media platform is captured on undercover video explaining the culture and ideology of the people who work within the organization.

In the video Twitter Sr. Engineer, Siru Murugesan, a self-described communist, explains why most of his colleagues are freaked out about Twitter being purchased by Elon Musk and operating as a capitalistic company.  Many might have to work more than 4 hours a week to earn their salary. WATCH:

[NEW YORK – May 16, 2022] Project Veritas published explosive undercover footage on Monday night featuring one of Twitter’s senior engineers discussing the dynamics behind internal reactions to the acquisition of the tech company by business magnate, Elon Musk.

In the video, Twitter Sr. Engineer, Siru Murugesan, says many of his colleagues have voiced “this would be my last day if it happens,” referring to Musk’s high publicized intended purchase of Twitter. He also says employees at Twitter are “stress-eating” and “worried for our jobs.”

More significant than those soundbites are the reasons he says employees at Twitter feel this way. (read more)

The Twitter Bot Inquiry Intensifies as Musk is Seemingly Stiff Armed


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The ramifications for Twitter surrounding fake users or algorithmic bots are considerable.  One issue is overcharging advertisers for ad impressions based on mDAU’s, which are “monetized Daily Active Users.”  The second issue is an outcome of the first and relates to the valuation of Twitter.  If Twitter bots are higher than Twitter estimates, then the mDAU rate is overstated.

Elon Musk is indicating there may need to be a lowering of the purchase price unless Twitter becomes transparent with how they are calculating the number of bot users at less than 5%.  All outside reviews attempting to estimate the number of fake accounts, or bots, puts the estimations considerably higher than the claims by Twitter.  Elon Musk tweeted:

At “The All In Summit 2022,” Elon Musk gave the impression the purchase price of Twitter may be tenuous.  He said that a deal with a lower price tag is not “out of the question,” Bloomberg reported.  “Currently, what I’m being told is that there’s just no way to know the number of bots… It’s like, as unknowable as the human soul,” Musk said at the Miami conference, per a social media video, Bloomberg added.

Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has responded to the controversy in a very obtuse twitter thread:

Let’s talk about spam. And let’s do so with the benefit of data, facts, and context…

First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.

Next, spam isn’t just ‘binary’ (human / not human). The most advanced spam campaigns use combinations of coordinated humans + automation. They also compromise real accounts, and then use them to advance their campaign. So – they are sophisticated and hard to catch.

Some final context: fighting spam is incredibly *dynamic*. The adversaries, their goals, and tactics evolve constantly – often in response to our work! You can’t build a set of rules to detect spam today, and hope they will still work tomorrow. They will not.

We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam – if they can’t pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).

The hard challenge is that many accounts which look fake superficially – are actually real people. And some of the spam accounts which are actually the most dangerous – and cause the most harm to our users – can look totally legitimate on the surface.

Our team updates our systems and rules constantly to remove as much spam as possible, without inadvertently suspending real people or adding unnecessary friction for real people when they use Twitter: none of us want to solve a captcha every time we use Twitter.

Now, we know we aren’t perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.

Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.

Each human review is based on Twitter rules that define spam and platform manipulation, and uses both public and private data (eg, IP address, phone number, geolocation, client/browser signatures, what the account does when it’s active…) to make a determination on each account.

The use of private data is particularly important to avoid misclassifying users who are actually real. FirstnameBunchOfNumbers with no profile pic and odd tweets might seem like a bot or spam to you, but behind the scenes we often see multiple indicators that it’s a real person.

Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% – based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.

Unfortunately, we don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.

There are LOTS of details that are very important underneath this high-level description. We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago and look forward to continuing the conversation with him, and all of you.  (Link to Twitter Article)

Methinks Parag Agrwal doth protest too much….  Especially if you overlay the ideological incentives that Twitter carries into its operational platform.

If you accept that Twitter is manipulating the public conversation intentionally (they are), then Twitter bots would serve an ideological function.  However, the issue of ‘bots’ operating on the Twitter platform is interesting when you consider the cost of platform operation.

On one hand, extensive auto-generated ‘bots’ would be an issue of cost and data-processing, a net negative.  On the other hand, the use of bots would be a manipulative practice for the creation of false impressions to generate advertising revenue.

If the scale of data-processing was subsidized, an outcome of a network of data processing centers -the AWS cloud- linked to government resources, the bots would not be a cost issue for the operation.  Despite the false impressions generated, bots would, however, under this weird situation, be useful for the manipulation of the conversation.

At the root of Elon Musk’s line of inquiry is the need to discover if this suspicion is true.

If the scale of bots has been underestimated (likely by a willfully blind operation) the advertising fees charged by Twitter were potentially fraudulent.  This is another operational reason (mitigating lawsuits from advertisers) for Musk to make the determination prior to the final purchase of the platform.

Taking Twitter private as a company, eliminating bots (which is essentially removing fraudulent users) then carries the potential benefits of both lowering costs and positioning the company to increase genuine ad revenue from authenticated users as real people.

Many people suspect the size of the political left on the Twitter platform is manipulated by programatic bots.  Meaning there seems to be more people on the left side of the spectrum because bots are deployed to give the impression of like-minded users.  I am one of the people who believe this suspicion is accurate, because it would be a typical way the ideological left operates.

The bots would be in addition to the deployment of algorithms that are designed to suppress speech the platform operators do not like.

I have long suspected the Twitter algorithm process is essentially assigning certain users into specifically designed data-processing containers where their voice is suppressed.   Some people call this ‘shadow-banning,’ I simply call it suppression.

Elon Musk represents a threat to the way the platform was/is designed to operate.  If Musk removes the discussion constraints, opens the containers and removes the restrictions, while simultaneously eliminating bots and fake accounts, the entire perspective of the platform could change very quickly.  This is what I think the current board and operators are trying to avoid.

Another rudimentary way to look at it…. Think about the last several months of public opinion polls.   Despite the efforts of a compliant media, repeatedly we see a 75/25 split against Biden and leftist policies.  The 3:4 and/or 4:5 ratio has been a consistent pattern for several months.  That ratio shows up in almost every poll.  However, if you look at Twitter that ratio is not present in the “organic” conversation about the same issues.

As CTH has said for many years, there are more of us than them.  However, Big Tech controls the mechanisms we use to communicate – and as a consequence the scale of our assembly is severely understated.

Twitter user fraud is the digital and social media equivalent to voter election fraud.   The voices raised in opposition to researching both issues are exactly the same.

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious….

Ten People Killed, 3 Wounded, After 18-year-old Gunman Opens Fire in Buffalo Supermarket


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 14, 2022 | Sundance

What appears to be a horrific racially motivated attack has left 10 people dead, including a store security guard at a Buffalo grocery store earlier today.

Police arrested 18-year-old Peyton Gendron at the scene after Buffalo police charged into the store and confronted the gunman in the vestibule.  Press Conference VIDEO:

(Via Daily Mail) – […] Gendron was caught by police emerging from the Tops Friendly Supermarket, at 1275 Jefferson Avenue about 2.30pm after shooting 13 people, 10 fatally. 

Police said 11 of those shot were black, with the other two white, and suggested Gendron had walked through the supermarket looking for specific people to target, although didn’t say whether this was based on the color of their skin.

Aaron Salter Jr, a former Buffalo police officer, is the first victim that’s been named in the attack. The father of three is being hailed as a hero after exchanging gunfire with Gendron inside the market. 

Gendron apparently scrawled the n-word on his rifle before carrying out Saturday’s massacre at Tops Friendly Supermarket in Buffalo. 

Three gunshot victims are being treated for their injuries, and cops say 11 of those shot were black. 

Gendron lived-streamed the assault as he opened fire inside the Tops Friendly Supermarket, at 1275 Jefferson Avenue, at about 2.30pm.

Police described the incident as a ‘heavily armed’ attack. 

‘He exited his vehicle. He was very heavily armed. He had tactical gear. He had a tactical helmet on. He had a camera that he was livestreaming what he was doing,’ city Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia said at a news conference. (read more)

CNN Claims Pro-Life Supporters Will Turn Violent with SCOTUS Victory, Amish Extremists now Threatening ANTIFA Peacekeepers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2022 | Sundance

No, it’s not opposite day.  This example is just another example of how the Ministry of Truth operates.  Political violence is speech, unless actual speech is heard from their opposition; then, it becomes violence.  War is peace. Water is dry, etc. George Orwell sighs. {Direct Rumble Link}

Knowing there is an increased likelihood of violence incited by far-left democrat activists and the White House, CNN moves their advance narrative engineering team into place to lay the blame for violence at the feet of their political opposition.  With Roe -v- Wade potentially being overturned, Amish extremists are now going to lay siege to the peaceful assembly of ANTIFA in DC, or something equally stupid.  WATCH:

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If the issues were not serious, this nonsense from CNN would be funny.  Far left activists have been threatening the Supreme Court justices and the White House has been provoking their political allies to keep up the anger against the court.  As a result, every sub-chapter of leftist political activism has been triggered to a state of rage and grievance.  The rhetoric and hatred expressed toward the justices on the court has been extreme.

However, CNN redefines the mob by calling them “right-wing”, the exact opposite of who is making the threats.

Keep in mind, none of the previous ANTIFA or Black Lives Matter violence could take place without the expressed support from the FBI.  If the FBI wanted to stop riots, political violence or the unlawful intimidation of federal judges, they could.

It would be very easy for the FBI to intercept the people making threats and arrest them for intimidation of federal judges.  18 U.S.C. § 1503 – Whoever . . . corruptly or by threats or force, or by any threatening letter or communication, influences, obstructs, or impedes, or endeavors to influence, obstruct, or impede, the due administration of justice, shall be (guilty of an offense).”   The reason the FBI and DOJ are staying silent, is because the FBI and DOJ support the targeting of the Supreme Court.  It really is that simple.

It should be alarming how the Executive Branch of the United States Government is openly targeting the Judicial Branch of the United States Government, but that point seems to be completely missed by everyone.   U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland standing aside while extremists in the democrat party attack supreme court justices only highlights how political the DOJ and FBI have become.

Last night, Fox News host Tucker Carlson drew attention to the media portrayal and the violent targeting now condoned by DHS, DOJ, FBI and the White House. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

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Musk Goes Full Galt, Challenges Woke Activists Who Pressure Corporations with Sunlight


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 3, 2022 | Sundance 

CTH has been watching carefully for several weeks; looking, reading and observing the expressed priorities of Elon Musk in an effort to evaluate his free speech intents and purposes.  After careful and cautious consideration, I can now say Elon Musk is the closest thing to John Galt in our lifetime.

Today, Mr. Musk drew attention to one of the central cancers. Musk is highlighting the strategy leftists use to target corporations, demand they withdraw advertising dollars, and force them into compliance against any unapproved platform designated by the woke mob.

[CNN Story Here – MMfA Letter Here – Elon Musk Tweet Link Here]

David Brock’s Media Matters for America (MMFA) has organized an activist campaign against companies who advertise on Twitter. [SEE LETTER HERE]  Their intent is to assemble all of the radical activist groups, directly target any company who would advertise on Twitter and by extension force woke compliance by the social media platform Musk is purchasing.

The letter urges advertisers to make their next ad deals with Twitter contingent on changes to platform policy under Mr Musk.  However, Musk is pushing back against the effort by asking, “who funds these organizations that want to control your access to information? Let’s investigate.” He then goes on to tweet, “Sunlight is the best disinfectant.”

(CNN) – Some of the nation’s biggest brands including Coca-Cola (CCEP), Disney (DIS) and Kraft (KHC) are facing calls to boycott Twitter if the company’s soon-to-be owner, billionaire Elon Musk, rolls back content moderation policies limiting hate speech and election misinformation.

In a letter sent to brands Tuesday ahead of the 2022 NewFronts digital advertising conference, more than two dozen civil society groups said marketers should secure commitments from Twitter to retain its most critical policies, including on civic integrity and hateful conduct, and threaten to withdraw funding if Twitter does not comply.

“As top advertisers on Twitter (TWTR), your brand risks association with a platform amplifying hate, extremism, health misinformation, and conspiracy theorists,” the letter said, adding: “Your ad dollars can either fund Musk’s vanity project or hold him to account.” (read more)

Musk has advocated for increased transparency on the mechanisms and algorithms within the Twitter platform, in order to gain public trust.  Everyone knows that Twitter management manipulates the platform based on ideology.  Even the original creator of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, has admitted the political preferences within the company are directly connected to the control mechanisms that have been built within it.

One of the key tell-tale sentences in the MMFA led letter is this:

“Consider the implications of full-scale public visibility into Twitter’s algorithm”..

The left-wing organizations and activist groups are worried about what public disclosure of the Twitter censorship and control mechanisms might mean. As a result of their fear, their strategy is to ask advertising corporations to pressure Elon Musk into keeping the background engineering hidden from review.  There is no incentive for Musk to do that as a private company, except this type of blackmail effort.

The need for control is a reaction to fear.  MMfA and their allies fear a free, open and uncontrolled information platform; and they fear that people will discover just how much has been done to tilt the discussion in their favor by controlling and silencing their opposition.

I can appreciate that Musk is taking the issues of free communication seriously. He is dealing with challenges of incredible consequence, he yet he carries on that battle with a light spirit and does not take himself seriously.  That is a remarkably valuable skillset.

If the full purchase deal can be finalized, Musk will take the company private. However, Musk has also reportedly shared that after a few years of private ownership, he would be willing to make the company a public offering again. Per the Wall Street Journal, “Mr. Musk said he plans to stage an initial public offering of Twitter in as little as three years of buying it, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is expected to close later this year, subject to conditions including the approval of Twitter shareholders and regulators, the company has said.

[READ THE LETTER HERE]