Armstrong Economics Blog/HongKong
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
We are getting reports from clients in Hong Kong telling us that there is absolute chaos raging in the streets. People lining up at ATM machines pulling out cash. A 16yr old they are reporting was shot by police and a policeman was set on fire. The MTR has been closed, and they are saying that virtual Martial Law is in effect.
The riots tonight have been over the Hong Kong government’s ban on the wearing of facial masks. It was said to have been an emergency measure intended to curb the violent unrest. However, it has been taken as a further sign that the “failed leader Carrie Lamb” is out of touch with events.
COMMENT: Hi Marty, sincere thanks for your quick response. (Hong Kong Riots.) I submitted my suggestion here less than 12 hours ago and you already addressed it.
Tonight, Hong Kong braises for its darkest day in history. Indeed, a sea of black shirts just floated past my sister-in-law’s apartment window. I can share her video (only if you want it.) She calls them Dementors. I’m glad at least her usual sense of wit and humour is intact.
You mentioned the Five Demands. The government has offered to sit down and negotiate but didn’t get a bite. They already have hostages – all of Hong Kong – so what’s to negotiate? Mr. Armstrong, if THAT’S not the M.O. of terrorists – yield to demands in exchange for hostages – God didn’t make little green apples.
Universal Suffrage doesn’t mean a thing until Universal Suffering ends. Nothing justifies this much violence. Unless the activists agree to move on to the next step – meet and talk – I can’t see how this could end well. But I still hope and pray (with no HKD to avoid the risk.)
Thanks for the fine analyses over the years, and for lending an ear.
See you in Orlando next month!
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Posted Oct 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The contagion of discontent exists. I have studied this interesting phenomenon from ancient times to the present. We have witnessed massive rioting in Hong Kong and that does spill over into other societies who then protest similar but local issues. In ancient times, Rome overthrew its Tarquin king and the Republic was born. Within a few months, we see the birth of democracy in Athens after they overthrew their tyrants 509/508 BC.
There was the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising that began the fall of communism in China. Within a matter of a few months, the Berlin Wall came crashing down. The American Revolution overthrew the monarchy and George Washington was sworn in as the first president in 1789. It was also 1789 when the French Revolution began which also overthrew the monarchy. In 1933, FDR came to power and so did Adolf Hitler.
Here we have the Hong Kong protests which have influenced Indonesia protests. The revisions to the legal code include penalties for sex outside marriage, insulting the president’s dignity, a four-year jail term for abortions in the absence of a medical emergency or rape, and a prison term for black magic.
The government has responded with tear gas and water cannons. Meanwhile, China has increased its troop strength on the border with Hong Kong as tensions continue
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Oct 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: What do you make of Trump’s proposal to restrict US investment in China? Will this send the US economy into recession as everyone is saying?
ANSWER: I have never seen the press so anti-president in the history of this nation. Every possible thing they claim will destroy the US economy. The US trade with China will by no means send the US economy into a deep recession. However, blocking US investment into China would send the Chinese economy down even harder.
This style of analysis always reduces the future trend to one simple event. The markets and the world economy are far more complex than a single event. This is the entire problem with Western Analysis – it is always linear and never cyclical. This is the same problem as Global Warming. They see a 1-degree rise, project that out for 50 years, and then assume the trend will remain the same – linear analysis. They always project the future in this manner and NEVER look at the trends in history to learn what are the “real” possibilities from similar events.
What you must understand is they often call this type of struggle between the current superpower (Financial Capital of the World) and the rising power to take that title, the Thucydides Trap. This is named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides who wrote about a war that devastated the two leading city-states of classical Greece – Sparta & Athens.
Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
While Thucydides provided his opinion, there was another backdrop to this war which he did not cover. Looking at this from an economic issue, it was the ancient clash between Capitalism and Communism. Sparta never issued coins whereas the Athenian Owl coins became the international currency recognized even in barbarian regions.
Sparta was an ancient communist-style state. Athens, on the other hand, was the Financial Capital of the Ancient world. They developed banking, insurance, and commodity markets. Sparta saw Athens as a decadent threat so it was one of power and fundamental disagreement with the economic differences between the two city-states. But Sparta had the backing of other city-states which were forced to pay tribute (taxes) to Athens.
The Thucydides Trap is considered the violent aspect of the shift in the Financial Capital of the World. In most cases, the rivalry between the major power and the new contender has led to war. Only a few times the passing of the crown of the Financial Capital of the World changed hands without war such as the loss of that title from Britain to the United States. However, there was still war involved whereas Britain lost its economic status due to war in Europe primarily and then the rise of the Labour Party. It did not involve war with the United States.
Nonetheless, we are looking at the risk of a conflict between China and the United States as this struggle for power continues. The USA will lose the title to China. Our computer model will be correct on that. But it does not necessarily mean war will unfold. The West will fall because of the economic conflicts internally between the left and right as socialism is dying and all the promises cannot be funded. So we see this more as the case with Britain that it lost the title to the United States without a direct war between the two powers
The hate hoax claims continue to mount in the aftermath of the Jussie Smollett fiasco. In the latest example the media heavily promoted the claims by a sixth-grade girl who accused three white students of holding her down and cutting her dreadlocks. Today the girl admits she made it all up; her family “apologizes.”
In the advancement of the hoax the media emphasized the race of the students as the motive for the “attack”. In the walk-back of the hoax, the media drop race completely.
(Via NBC) A 12-year-old girl who accused three sixth-grade boys of pinning her down and cutting her dreadlocks has admitted to school officials she was not attacked and cut her own hair, her family’s attorney and the school said.
A sixth-grade girl at Immanuel Christian School in Springfield, Virginia, said three white classmates ambushed her on the playground last week and used scissors to cut off some of her dreadlocks while telling her her hair was “nappy” and “ugly.”
She and her family met with school officials Monday morning to apologize. (more)
The one similarity amid these continued hate hoaxes is that the accuser is never held accountable for the false claims. One can reasonably argue if fake crime reports were prosecuted (criminal or civil) that might make people stop and think before making these false allegations. Then again, democrats, the FBI, Mueller, Pelosi, Schiff and institutions writ large, are working diligently to make false allegations a part of common public debate.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics
Re-Posted Sep 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1: Hi Martin!
What are your thought´s about Greta Thunberg, the klimat prophet from Sweden, now out on a US tour preaching about our near mass extermination?
QUESTION #2: Hi Martin.
I watched the news in stunned silence last night as a16 year old ragged at me, accused me and others of my generation, and generations past, of destroying the earth, of not caring, and that she and her generation “will never forgive us”. I watched the other day as others said essentially the same, raging at me through the television. Adults sitting and standing around them nodded in agreement.
Here in Canada, they take $1000’s from me in taxes that will somehow supposedly stop climate change.
For the first time, I am feeling very nervous about my future, and that of my children. Teenagers are being used to mobilize Marxist 20 somethings against they’re own parents, and we’re surely in a vulnerable position. These are incredibly sad times we live in…
REPLY: These people have really abused the younger generation who think they have no future because of climate change. It is standard political tactics to bring in the children when you want to sell an agenda. Obama brought in children to hide a covert effort as did Hitler. Praise the children and nobody can argue.
You can’t stand up and say to this little girl who knew NOTHING about the actual science and has been fed an agenda to accomplish an end that will destroy her future because you are attacking a child. They know how to sell a covert agenda. This is STANDARD politics 101. Like Hitler, they are waging war to save the children.
I really do thank God I am not 25. I have no desire to live in the world these people have in mind.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Sep 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Every ISM has failed. Maybe we are seeing the twilight of Capitalism.
China is a hybrid. Maybe that is why it will be the next world power.
REPLY: People confuse capitalism with corruption. Capitalism is your freedom to choose. Corruption is when republics are available for sale to the highest bidder.
Unfortunately, the founding fathers believed the propaganda of Cicero who painted Julius Caesar as a dictator when he was a populares. The people supported Caesar against the corrupt senate of Rome which sold itself to the highest bidder.
I believe the ONLY way to correct our political crisis is to impose TERM LIMITS in Congress — one term and you are out. Just look at the Democrats. All they are doing is trying to undermine Trump. This is what career politicians do. They are not fighting for the people. They are only trying to undermine the opposition for more power.
Congress spends 70% of its time selling favors and trying to raise money for the next election. Term limits will end that. It will end the lobbying motto: “Do as I ask and I will fund your next election.”
Our judicial system is collapsing entirely. Nobody can prevail against the bankers in New York City. The courts will bend the law and ignore the Supreme Court entirely to protect the bankers who are the leaders of corruption and the harbingers of our doom.
China is a hybrid. The positive side of China is that the unelected leadership need not promise stupid things to maintain power. They can focus on the long-term plan for China. We do not need to adopt that hybrid, but we can achieve what was originally intended with term limits. End the corruption and we will at least have a real, free climate of capitalism.