The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) is an assembly and survey of small business owners throughout the U.S. In the latest survey (full pdf here) overall optimism is the second highest ever recorded at 107.9 (the highest reading was 108 in 1983).
[…] Although some panned any celebration of the 4.1 percent second quarter GDP growth, small business owners beg to disagree. At least in the small business sector of the economy, Main Street’s performance over the last 21 months is unprecedented based on reports for the past 45 years by hundreds of thousands of NFIB’s member firms. Owners have never been so optimistic for so long. This has translated to improved employment and investment spending that buoys GDP growth, even at the end of what will be the longest expansion in modern history.
Consumer sentiment is at record high levels. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of our economy, posted 4 percent growth in Q2. Historically revised data show that consumers have been saving much more than thought, and income gains in recent months have been solid, providing support for spending in the second half. The record levels of firms reporting higher compensation is a clear indication that wages will be rising further in the second half.
COMPENSATION ANALYSIS: Reports of higher worker compensation gained a point from June to a net 32 percent of all firms, 3 points below May’s record reading of 35 percent. Plans to raise compensation rose 1 point to a net 22 percent, historically strong.
Government measures of wage and compensation gains follow movements in NFIB plans to raise compensation but with a 3 quarter lag, so government reports of rising compensation will increase even more in the second half of the year.
Owners complain at record rates about labor quality issues, with 88 percent of those hiring or trying to hire in June reporting few or no qualified applicants for their open positions. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was unchanged at a net negative 1 percent, one of the very best readings in the survey’s 45 year history. (report)
♦ 35% of all businesses have raised wages; 22% more plan to raise wages. As CTH continues to note, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on wage growth lags behind the actual NFIB survey results direct from the employers.
♦ 70% of all U.S. workers work in small businesses.
Again for emphasis: This is MAGAnomics in action. Main Street is benefiting. Blue and White collar Main Street is benefiting. The Middle-Class is the primary beneficiary.
For more than 30 years the Main Street economic engine has been intentionally stalled by U.S. economic policy that has favored Wall Street and pushed a service-driven-economy narrative on the U.S. workers. Using targeted MAGAnomic Main Street policy President Trump has reversed the trend.
Main Street, and the U.S. Middle Class, is growing again.
President Trump really is “a blue-collar billionaire“.