Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Aug 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
There is a site that is doing short-term Earthquake forecasts who has a very good track record known as Dutchsinse. He has a very good track record for forecasting events near-term. Of course, this is still not mainstream. It is very strange when people can improve on forecasting they are just ignored. Our models are not designed to give a specific target for an earthquake on a daily basis. We have plotted the long-term historical records and correlate that with the global economy.
There are countless earthquakes every day. We do not seek to duplicate what Dutchsinse provides. We are more concerned with targeting important events that will alter the economic trends either short or long-term. Here is our database on Japan. These are the earthquakes back to 694AD. In this case, there have been 86 important quakes for Japan. This is the entire country and not just Tokyo which has been destroyed three times – the last being 1923.
We identify periods where activity should appear even years in advance. This is completely different from short-term forecasting specific targets as has been the case with Dutchsinse. There are numerous quakes around the world every day. Most people will never feel them. Some will run deep and others shallow. Some will produce tsunami events that can be catastrophic as was the case in the 1923 Tokyo event.
Our models are more focused on the correlation with other events. Obviously, a 1923 style earthquake and tsunami in Tokyo today would impact the global economy as Japan is the third largest economy and debt market. The ripple effect in global markets, both currency, and equity would be very significant as well as the debt markets. Here we strive for long-term forecasts to provide institutions time to shift portfolios that could never be accomplished in 24 hours or less.