The Great Conjunction Next Week


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Dec 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Numerous people always ask if astrology is incorporated into Socrates. The answer is no. From what I can say is that what I see is a complex network of numerous variables that keeps the global econo0my functioning. Trying to say that something will happen in the market because of a planetary convergence that people have been tracking for centuries is subjective to me. That said, planetary conjunctions may not be the cause of some event, but they may be part of a complex network that is behind events.

Next week we have the solstice, which will be the shortest day of the year. That comes every year and does not produce anything on a regular basis. However, this time we have Saturn and Jupiter that will appear to almost kiss this winter solstice, creating the illusion over the centuries that it is a major star appearing out of nowhere. Here, these two gas giants will look as though they’re are virtually one in the night sky in an event known as a “great conjunction,” which happens roughly every 20 years.

Nonetheless, this year’s great conjunction will be exceptionally close coming in just a tenth of a degree apart. The last time Saturn and Jupiter appeared as one star was July 16, 1623, back when the famous Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei observed it. However, this great conjunction varies in closeness and those events where it is this close take place only every 397 years.

This 397-year cycle is very interesting. It coincides with the 300-year cycle in weather caused by moving into a solar minimum. These events have marked when the climate has turned cold. During the 1600s, they called that the Little Ice Age. Note that in 829, that was also the peak in the mini-Ice Age where the Nile River frize i9n Egypt. On the 1226 event, it was also believed that the rare Christmas star was shown. This does not appear to be true but it may have marked the crucifixion of Christ.

Events in the heavens have traditionally been seen as omens of some event or another.  The appearance of a comet at the time of Julius Caesar’s death promoted his divinity for political purposes. His nephew Octavian, later to be given the name Augustus by the Senate (27 BC-14 AD), issued coins with the comet that appeared at the time of Caesar’s death with the legend: DIVVS IVLIVS (Divine Julius). This was self-serving and used as justification of his rule as the first Emperor of Rome beginning the Imperial Era. But that was not Halley’s Comet.

Halley’s Comet has been recorded as early as 467 BC by the Greeks. The Chinese chroniclers also mention a comet during this year. However, the Chinese astronomer Shiji also recorded its appearance in 240 BC. The Babylonians recorded its appearance in 164 BC in two clay tablets in the British Museum. Again, the Babylonians recorded its appearance once more in 87 BC. It was this appearance that lasted for about one month that was celebrated on the coinage of Tigranes II the Great, an Armenian king who is depicted here on coins with a crown and a curved tail. It was portrayed as ushering in a New Era of the brilliant King of Kings. Tigranes II the Great issued the earliest coin depicting Haley’s Comet which is represented by the star in his crown.

Halley’s Comet appeared around 12 BC and it was recorded in the Book of Han by Chinese astronomers of the Han Dynasty. They tracked it from August through October during 12 BC. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, a comet appeared almost suspended over Rome for several days at the time of the death of Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa who was Augustus’ close friend. He issued a coin depicting Agrippa with a comet above his head.

There has been considerable debate about whether Halley’s Comet was also the Star of Bethlehem. The appearance in 12 BC, is not that distant from the conventionally assigned date of the birth of Jesus Christ which has a range of 6AD to 4AD. This is based mostly on the biblical story of Herod the Great. Not long before Herod’s death, which is generally attributed to have occurred in 4BC but even that is in dispute.

Referencing the Haley Comet connection, some theologians and astronomers have also to suggested that this might explain the biblical story of the Star of Bethlehem and provide a more documented confirmation of his birth coinciding with the time of the death of Agrippa. However, there are also records of other comets that appeared closer to the date of Jesus’ birth.  In a 1991 article in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, astronomer Colin Humphreys proposed that the Star of Bethlehem was actually a slow-moving comet, which Chinese observers recorded in 5 BC.

So as you can see, correlating events in the heavens with events on earth has been a pastime for centuries. What does this mean for next week? Besides the fact that the Electoral College must get the final votes to Washington on December 23rd next week where electors could still upset the apple cart, what comes through from this 397-year cycle is the exceptionally cold weather were are having this winter.

In addition to the colder weather, simultaneously there are also droughts. The Hunger Stones marking droughts appeared in 2018. I have been warning that we are witnessing major droughts around the world. The droughts that have been recorded on the Hunger Stones dating to 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893, which covers a period of 476 years.

I have been warning that while there are colder winders, not warming, and we have droughts in the summer, this is by no means caused by humans. This is a clear historical trend if anyone bothered to look at the contemporary sources during these periods

The Discovery in Volterra


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Oct 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

In Tuscany, Italy, a major discovery has been made of the only amphitheater to have been discovered that was never excavated before. This is being called the “Archaeological Discovery of the Century,” for everything else has been cleared over by people for centuries. The location is the ancient Italian city of  Volterra, which was once part of the Etruscan culture dating back to the 8th century BC that was eventually conquered by Rome. The coinage of Volterra was cast bronze clearly showing that the monetary system dated back to the Bronze Age when the Minoan culture was the great empire prior to 1650 BC and the eruption of Thera known today as Santorini.

The archaeological discovery is very important. It will be most interesting to see what comes out of this site, but then again, they are using COVID to crush society for the real end goal of climate change.

Astronomical Phenomenon & Socrates


Re-Posted Oct 2, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you so much for sharing the connections Socrates is making between seemingly unrelated ideas. I’m a high school/collegiate science teacher and am wondering if Socrates has identified any correlations between coming astronomical phenomenon (like lunar phases or planetary alignment) to war or the economy. The information you’ve provided on the Sun has been amazing!
BTW, my students and I use the information you blog about as the foundation for the conversations in our Socratic seminars.
Thanks for all you do!
MC

ANSWER: I have never input the planetary information into Socrates. The Moon is capable of picking up the ocean and moving it creating a high and low tide. I would think it can have some influence on people but probably highly differential because we are all perhaps sensitive to various things on an unequal basis. The terms “lunatic” and stories of werewolves are all about people who were sensitive to the moon.

The attempt to correlate the heavens and events on earth as omens of the future date back to the Babylonians. I have been asked this question many times because some of our dates may align with some astronomical phenomena. I would look at it as a separate model. Our Arrays have some 72 different models. They are not a single cycle. There are many. Even take volatility. How do you define it? We have overnight volatility from today’s close to tomorrow’s open. Then there is internal volatility which is the percentage movement between high and low for the day. Then there can be closing volatility measured from yesterday’s close to today and likewise between openings. There are many aspects that the computer is looking at and then it correlates between markets, countries, etc. There are far too many calculations for any individual to do every day.

After my experience with cycles, they go through inversion processes where the same targets remain fixed, but instead of a low, it becomes a high. I would suspect that attempts to use astronomical phenomena will result in the same outcome. The same event will not always produce a high or low. This simply takes place because every market is influenced by everything else around it. It really takes a supercomputer to work out the countless possibilities.

That is why I say my opinion is just personal. Anytime I have thought something would happen which Socrates has disagreed with, I am the one who is wrong. So I have learned. My job is to provide some clarity, but it is not to forecast the future from a personal opinion perspective. Forecasting Civil Unrest was not something that came to me in the middle of the night. It is not even something I personally would have preferred to see.

And BTW, I have been a programmer all my life. I do not see how it is possible for a program to EVER become aware of itself and then dominate humanity. I can mimic human emotion, but I cannot create it for real. And to set the record straight, I have been the ONLY coder on the AI systems behind Socrates. This has been my life’s work. We have a whole team of programmers who manage the delivery systems. But as for the AI, in all honesty, I had the skill to program, I also had the skill to trade, but I also had the clients to show me with a front-row seat how they all look at the world economy from their own perspective. That is why there is no competition for Socrates. It has taken over 50 years to create what you see.

It is also why nobody wants to address Socrates because it changes the entire forecasting game where people advise they are the guy who forecasts some event so see what he is saying next. Personal forecasting is not consistent.

Capital Flows Will Be the Key


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,
If this “Great Reset” movement pushes gold underground, what kind of a future do we really have?

HR

ANSWER: On election night, Trump should win. However, the real question will be the mail-in ballots, and are they legitimate. As I have said, it really does not matter who wins from the perspective of the model warning that we will see a rise in civil unrest. NEITHER side will accept a loss. As I have said before, if the guy you voted for lost, it was no big deal, you went on with your life. Obama may have said all kinds of nonsense against Bush from Quantanamo was illegal to his authorization of tapping into US phones. But at the end of the day, Quantanomo was still there when Obama left and the surveillance only increased under Obama. The DEEP STATE runs the show and the trend never really changed.

If you look to France, they imposed a 10% tax on gold. I have friends there you buy their gold but post it to Belgium. We have to understand that is far beyond simply Republican v Democrat. Those are the old days. These people are really trying to seize control of the world to push their agenda of POPULATION CONTROL and CLIMATE CHANGE.

There is no way they will achieve their goal. This is wildly naive and it requires an academic to come up with this nonsense. There are two things that they have completely gotten wrong and it seems willing. (1) Climate Change and (2) the Business Cycle. Civilization expands with warming periods and contracts during cold periods. To listen to these people who argue that climate change is caused by humans cannot be supported by the data. We certainly do not want to live in pollution. We need clean air and clear water. But pollution does not change the climate. There are far bigger cycles at work.

Insofar as the business cycle is concerned, this is driven also by weather as well as innovation. The idea that we can create an economy that is the perfect utopia where there is never a recession or depression is absolute nonsense. Just look at any market from stocks and bonds to commodities. Everything fluctuates.

These two assertions that they can manipulate the climate and smooth the business cycle to create the perfect world is the dreams of madmen who are not satisfied with the way things actually work in this universe.

The BOTTOM LINE will be capital flows. What we must be concerned about is that there will be capital restraints imposed in different countries. Cutting off international travel is highly dangerous. The USA is no exception. All my staff outside the country cannot visit for everyone’s visa has been canceled. In Europe, Americans will be prohibited from traveling there without preapproval BEFORE you can even buy a ticket starting in 2021 and that was before COVID. We are staring at a deliberate move to reduce air travel as part of this Climate Change agenda without formally stating so.

This is no longer about Republic/Conservative v Democrat/Labour. There is a much bigger agenda taking place which will dictate the direction of the world economy ahead of us.

Teaching Children to Think


QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you so much for sharing the connections Socrates is making between seemingly unrelated ideas. I’m a high school/collegiate science teacher and am wondering if Socrates has identified any correlations between coming astronomical phenomenon (like lunar phases or planetary alignment) to war or the economy. The information you’ve provided on the Sun has been amazing!
BTW, my students and I use the information you blog about as the foundation for the conversations in our Socratic seminars.
Thanks for all you do!
MC

REPLY: I have not used astrology even though my understanding has been that it was devised by the Babylonians who sought to correlate events on earth to events in the heavens, as well as the movements of the earth and animals. I am not so certain that specific events in the markets can be forecast by that method because things change and there are more complexities involved today. Nevertheless, they may align with what I have to say from time to time. The cycle of the sun 300 years aligned with our 309.6-year cycle. It is interesting that these solar cycles are getting weaker. The climate change that appears to be on the horizon is not global warming, but global cooling.

There is no discussion of even how the poles flip. I worked out the cycles on that from the data that was sent to us to see what Socrates would come up with. It turned out to be a 720,000-year cycle, so unfortunately we do not have an account of what took place the last time. Nonetheless, we are in line for that change perhaps post-2032. The poles flip every 11 years on the Sun. But, nobody lives there to explain the impact. There is no discussion of the sun cycle nor the movement of the poles in this climate change scenario they put forth where they claim we will all die after 7 years.

I am thrilled that you are teaching your students how to think. I really wish more teachers stopped the brainwashing and open their own eyes to the agenda being forced upon the youth for nefarious purposes.

Waging War Economically


QUESTION: Hi Marty I so miss the WEC conferences. Can you comment on ECONOMIC WAR in historical perspective. In early 2000s I heard that wars will no longer be fought with guns but instead will be faught with economics, are there examples of using economics in history that correlate to the present and the decline of the west and rise of the east? There was a book titled “all the monies of the world” by franz Pick and the line I remember from it was “the destiny of a currency is, and always will be the destiny of a nation” always wishing you the best and I am very thankful to have met you in Orlando

DM Ohio

ANSWER: There have been frequent attempts to fight wars economically. The Germans were counterfeiting the British five-pound notes to undermine their economy. During the American Revolution, the English were counterfeiting the Continental Currency also to undermine the economy. This is standard since the invention of paper money.

In ancient times, the counterfeiting was private. There was no strategy to use counterfeits to undermine an adversary. In the case of the siege of Athens in 404 BC by Sparta, they simply cut off their supply of silver to undermine their ability to fund the war.

This time around, moving to a digital currency opens the door much wider to undermining the banking system itself as a tactic to wage war.

How Innovation Works, With Matt Ridley


Interview with Matt Ridley

Monday, May 18, 2020

Recorded on May 6th, 2020

A true Renaissance man, Matt Ridley is a British journalist, a member of the House of Lords, a businessman, and the author of many publications, including The Rational Optimist, his very influential book about the innate human tendency to trade goods and services, which he argues is the source of all human prosperity. Ridley’s new book, How Innovation Works, chronicles the history of innovation and argues that we need to change the way we think about innovation, to see it as an incremental, bottom-up, fortuitous process that happens to society as a direct result of the human habit of exchange, rather than as an orderly, top-down process developing according to a plan. Ridley also discusses the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the world’s economies, the real story of Thomas Edison and why he was one of the greatest innovators in human history, why China may not be the threat it appears to be (at least not technologically), and some predictions as to what the world may look like in 2050.

To view the transcript of this conversation, click here.

Kondratieff Wave – COVID – Future


QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I would first like to thank you for your work on the public and private blogs so we small investors can understand the greater trend that has been building for quite some time.
I also hope that your health conditions have gotten better and that you are recovering.
Your work has deeply shifted my view from the university education that I have just now finished; ideological stances are everywhere.
However, I am confused about a subject that is not an economic one -COVID.

Regardless of the political motives being used with this virus to create the premises of a “new” socialist revolution (political Economy); this virus has come right around the 2020 solar minimum so are we to expect this virus to continue in some way shape or form (Mutate or another virus)?

Furthermore, what guidance would you give to the next generation (West), those coming in this new cycle of China’s undeniable Empire now facing inward in building their domestic economy?
We are seeing all the hallmarks of the end of the Western Empire’s absolute reign with crippling doomsayers, more broadly the cultural landscape of the West (Climate Change, Equality against Freedom)?

You have said that we will see a rise in the commodity cycle, is the commodity cycle synched with the Kondratieff wave of the new Energy being needed to create this new future.
Are these rare minerals part of the bigger trend?

The ground is moving but as Churchill once said we must “Never let a good crisis go to waste”

Thank you for reading this entirely, I hope you all the best
Sincerely
RLB

ANSWER: The Kondratieff Wave has been seriously abused over the years. Look at the economic structure from when he constructed that data for the wave. Commodities were 70% of the economy during the mid-19th century, falling to about 40% by 1900, and eventually 3% by 1980. This is why the Kondratieff Wave failed to work as people were predicting. The next ideal turning point will be 2028.

If I constructed a cycle based on the snapshot of the economy today, 70% would be the service industry. But things change with time so the model must also adapt to the changing structure of the economy. Additionally, there were waves of innovation pointed out by Schumpeter, but even this still missed the underlying causes. Prices certainly soared during the war, for this is when food production was also disrupted. Make no mistake about it, this COVID scare has reduced food production precisely as what unfolds during a war.

Even this still fails to dig deep enough. This was also a solar minimum. We were gradually coming out of the Little Ice Age and it was still cold into 1850. Therefore, the rise in warming was been a dead-cat bounce. Consequently, we are still in a position where we are vulnerable to a decline in solar activity, which is already reducing food production. Shortages will be seen in North Korea which will incentivize an invasion of the South if they see the USA becoming divided and weak. We also see crop failure in China. The rise in prices will be from SHORTAGES, not speculative demand.

Even if we assume that this virus was manmade, that does not prevent it from mutating. The common cold is a coronavirus and we cannot cure that. This will most likely mutate for years to come. That does not mean we should be locked down with masks for the rest of our lives.

As far as guidance is concerned, first, forget European languages and start studying Mandarin. As far as skills, look to technology. Programming will be critical, for it teaches you what is possible in this new age of artificial intelligence.

Left – Right – Middle – Inevitable


QUESTION: Do you think the Republicans are any better than the Democrats in Washington?

SP

ANSWER: All career politicians are a problem for they lack contact with the people. Longer-term, this form of government I seriously doubt will last. This is the very same problem of corruption that infected the Roman Republic which ended in the civil war and then Imperial Rome began. If you look at Athens, there was a constant battle between the oligarchy and those who were Democrats. Representative government has never been sustainable because politicians can be bribed.

The crisis with the Democrats is confined to the leadership which is pandering to the extreme left. My father was a Democrat. Not all Democrats are evil. The vast majority are not extreme left which will make this election very interesting. Then about 10% of the people are truly independent and will swing back and forth. The middle ground Democrats and Republicans have always worked together. But make no mistake about it, all career politicians of both parties are protective and do not like outsiders. They did not like Ronald Reagan at first because he was only a governor. Note that they picked Harris for VP not that she is qualified, but that (1) she is part black, (2) a woman, and (3) a Senator so she is in the game.

All Republics die from oligarchies and become infested with corruption. They hated Trump before he even took office BECAUSE he was not one of them regardless of his comments. It has always been a closed club. My father as a lawyer who defended a client against Republican U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy in his hearings.

Had the Supreme Court simply ruled honestly that Equal Protection is not limited to race, creed, or gender, but also class, we would not have this Marxist struggle. If you bad mouth a minority it is hate speech. If you bad mouth someone who has more than the average in material wealth you are exposing an injustice. If the Supreme Court simply upheld the constitution which makes no exception based upon any grounds, we would not have this clash between the parties and reduce the class warfare which ALWAYS leads to the collapse of every Republic in history.

Markets, the Future & This Craziness


It is impossible to forecast the markets without this political war that is taking place and the organized Great Reset. People have asked what about the extreme Republicans? It is very hard to find the middle ground any more. Both parties have their middle and those in the Democrats I speak too are equally concerned about the extreme left which has taken control. I have explained that this appears to be the last stand for the extreme old-guard in the Democrats. Their proposals of bailing out all state government pensions and to impose a tax on every transaction in the markets aside from income taxes will certainly undermine the economy long-term.

The extreme left in the Democrats only brings out the extreme right in the Republicans. We have also had enough of this 99% conviction rate and judges who always rule in favor of the government. We are simply without representation in the middle ground. The future will be so determined by events in the 2020 election. But regardless of who wins, the financial capital of the world will be moving anyhow by 2032.

This appears to be a question of global confidence which will turn on the election. But there are rising protests and the middle ground Democrats are becoming very disturbed by these tactics that seek to punish the people in hopes of overthrowing Trump. But the damage to the global economy will only start to surface after the election only because the life-preserver in many regions cannot be maintained forever and people who have lost their jobs will be out on the street. Only then will we see the true extent of this mess.