China & US War in 3 Months?

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link that does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

While there is no question that war is coming. However, not simply because Trump needs to win the election. Yes, China has been staging assault practices to invade Taiwan. They have suppressed Hong Kong which was a vital economic link for its economy. The subjugation of Hong Kong shows that China’s economy has matured enough that it no longer needs to funnel business through Hong Kong. Many businesses borrowed in Hong Kong and took the cash directly back to China.

The confrontation cycle between China and Taiwan turned up in 2018 and we should expect this to really escalate into 2023. Nevertheless, underlying models do not look good economically for Taiwan. This entire COVID nonsense has seen as much as a 90% drop in profits for some of the biggest companies in Taiwan.

There is clearly a risk that 2020 could prove to be the major high and a decline into 2024 may unfold. This was a high volatility yearly target and we have witnessed an outside reversal to the upside. This may be the conclusion of this long-standing confrontation. With COVID raging in the West, there will be no economic basis to defend Taiwan from Europe or the USA. China knows the West cannot afford a war after destroying its economy. If I were China, I would wait for these further lockdowns to wipe out the various economics and that will reduce the threat of any retaliation. This will be like Rome expanding after the Greeks fought among themselves dividing their empire.

Macedonia Monetary History | Armstrong Economics

Titus Quinctius Flamininus (c. 228–174BC) was a Roman politician and general who was instrumental in the Roman conquest of Greece. That came 309.6 years from the birth of the Roman Republic. The fall of Greece to Rome came about 224 years from the peak of Greece prior to its conquest by Macedonia. Europe peaked really with the French Revolution. That came 224 years before the peak in government confidence which was 2015.75. From there onward, we have has not just BREXIT, but the election of Trump and the collapse in the basic civility within politics.

The Cycle of War has been edited and is off to the printer. The full scope of what we face has been provided in that book.

Something is Wrong

QUESTION: At the WEC in Orlando, you said something was wrong. Was the computer picking up this event of a crash being contrived?


ANSWER: The computer clearly was picking something beginning in August 2019, which corresponded to the start of the Repo Crisis and the reaction high in the Russel 2000. Yes, I warned that there would be a crash with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model in January 2020. A divergence was clearly unfolding and has been very dramatic. The failure of the Dow and Russel 2000 to rally compared to the NASDAQ reflected a Paradigm Shift, which also took place during the Great Depression.

This is by no means a normal market, which is why the fundamental analysis makes no sense. The stock market rises while the economy declines. However, it is only selected segments of the economy, which is why there is such a disconnect between indexes and reality.

The Cycle of Socialism – Is It Inevitable?

QUESTION: Dear Marty,

I am hoping you can post this Q in your public blog.

I have been following you for several years now and I think you have a great mind. You are clearly a deep thinker and as a result of being such you obviously see solutions to problems others can’t see.

But why do you try to control what you ultimately claim is simply natural, i.e. part of cycles?**

When I say control, I mean for example, you might say in public (on your public blogs), I disagree with socialism, and yet, is not socialism nothing more than a natural part of the ultimate economic/legal/political/property cycle which began out of the feudal era? I mean the cycle where the ratio of people who can pursue their self-interests grows and shrinks? We are clearly in that part of the cycle where this ratio is very high and may have even peaked. But does not the pursuit of self-interests also include and permit the ability to become political, to become socialist, to become a policy/law maker, to become a property owner, to become a greeny, to become controlling and to become a loud speaker for all sorts of political agendas such as climate change and all these other dramas (all of which are acting out as a means to protect self-interests)?

It is clear to me that when I view the economy, property, and politics, from a purely legal perspective, we are definitely in a zero-sum game because no legal right can exist in isolation (for every legal right there must be a legal obligation on another or others). Therefore, it seems to me that at the eventual end of this cycle, less and less people will be able to pursue their self-interests (in other words we will return to something like feudal times), simply because too many have been allowed to pursue their self-interests. It’s all a cycle, yes?

What is the solution to world where everything is subject to the law of contract (i.e. everything is treated as a commodity)? Is there a solution, or is the cycle inevitable?


ANSWER: The cycle cannot be altered. The very best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude. My concern involves what comes AFTER this chaos post-2032. The danger of Marxism in any form, Socialist to Communist, is that these morons think they can have a better life. They end up creating a police state whereby they surrender all their rights to ensure the oppression of others, who they hate because they are told that they are the victims of the rich. I am against oppression and socialistic philosophy, for it leads only to one place.

That said, providing aid to people in need is NOT socialism — that has taken place for centuries. Here is a gold aureus of the Roman Emperor Trajan struck about 111 AD announcing his program to aid orphans. Being charitable should be an honest charity. Socialism is robbery whereby they only seek to take from others for themselves. That is by no means charity.

There is clearly a cycle of oppression and freedom. What is very clear is that no matter what form of government we have, there is the inevitable mismanagement that goes with it. All forms of government collapse — there are no exceptions. Each will rise from the ashes of the last and promise utopia, only to become the very evil they swore to eliminate.

There is absolutely ZERO justice in any legal system, no matter what country. When “The Forecaster” debuted in Germany, there was a discussion after the film. One person said that would NEVER happen in Germany. Then two German lawyers rose and said they do this to people in Germany all the time. There is no such thing as “justice,” for it is always as Thrasymachus warned Socrates thousands of years ago — it is only the interest of the government. Edward Snowden exposed that the government was acting illegally against the people of the United States. The government calls him a traitor and would kill him like Jeffrey Epstein in the blink of an eye not because he betrayed the people or the Constitution, but because he exposed the corruption in government.

Take this current outrage against the police. This is all the result of the Supreme Court creating IMMUNITY out of thin air for all government judges, prosecutors, and police. There is NOTHING in the Constitution that gives them the power to create such immunity that is in direct contradiction of the Declaration of Independence.

I do not believe that we can ever prevent the cycle. However, that does not mean that those of us to can see the cycle coming like a train must stand there and not move off the tracks. That said, this has been the cycle third 51.6 year Economic Confidence Wave from the rise of socialism 1882.45, 1934.05, and 1985.65. This is the wave when Marxism collapses. They are making a major effort to take over the world by sheer force using this virus to destroy the economy as much as possible and use this to justify nationalizing industry. This is part of their planned takeover and is behind the rising civil unrest that will unleash international war.

The very first wave into this cycle saw the collapse of communism 1989.95, and 43 years later (half 86-year cycle), we will meet the collapse of Western socialism. There is no stopping this cycle. To survive, we need to understand the trend in order to step out of the way when it comes. Property prices are rising in the suburbs because of this virus. Black Lives Matter is used as a cover for those simply using it for criminal activities who pretend to be part of the movement that has been compelling people to leave urban centers. Property in the Hamptons is reaching all-time new highs as people vacate New York City, whereas prices are collapsing in states like Illinois and urban centers. Real estate has become very diverse in trend.

Capitalism is simply the freedom to pursue your own happiness. The bribery of government is corruption and not capitalism any more than Bill Gates or George Soros using their money to try to reshape the world to their liking. That is by no means justified, and it is tyranny no different than Marx or any government. They have NO right to try to force the people to do as they command. Socialism cannot exits outside of authoritarianism to force people to comply with its mandates.

The Fall of the United Nations

QUESTION: Dear Martin, The UN Charter was formed 26 June 1945 86 years will take it to June 2031. Does the UN Agenda 2030 coincide with a collapse of it’s forced agenda?
ANSWER: According to our models, the United Nations, as we know it, will come to an end by 2031 following the old League of Nations. They have made a strategic play in an attempt to become the world government by using both this virus and climate change, continually calling for governments to submit to their direction. Our model clearly shows that Bill Gates and Soros will also fail. They have unleashed the destruction of Western Society, and this social distancing is precisely the opposite of what encourages the formation of civilization. What lies ahead will be the topic of a special report after the elections laying out the various paths that we face going into the future.

PS: We have finished the editing process on “The Cycle of War,” and it is going to print shortly.

Was Genoa the Best form of Government?

Genoa 1481

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

Thank you for your work.
It is not anymore about the economy but about surviving through the mayhem that is on the horizon.
Thank you for doing your part in sharing what you know, for being bold and for
not bending.
I was taught to go after ” independent thinking” and I have followed you for years because of that even though we have different political views.
I appreciate and listen to you because you are an independent thinker.

Send you a hug
Dr. FB from, Spain.

REPLY: Thank you. I believe you must question what is happening and you should NEVER presume the direction or outcome. Some people do not understand my position politically. I am neither Democrat nor Republican. There are aspects I agree and disagree with both. I understand the thinking of what went into the construction of the U.S. Constitution and the mistake the Founding Fathers made — they failed to consider human nature.

Much of the structure was based upon their misunderstanding of the Roman Republican era v Roman Imperial era. They presumed that monarchy was bad and ASSUMED that a Republic was better. They wrongly took the fake news of the day put out by Cicero, painting Julius Caesar as evil, when it was the Optimates led by Cato who were corrupt. Their misunderstanding of history and the true events of the time led even to the naming of the Cato Institute as if he really stood for the people.

The best form of government I have ever encountered was that of the Italian city of Genoa from which Christopher Columbus came. The city was ruled by a Doge (president), who was a member of one of the richest families. This position rotated among the families, but its duration was that of the old Roman Dictator who would be appointed for one year. BECAUSE the position rotated, no Doge would ever impose a draconian law since he and his family would be subjected to it the next year. There was no class warfare because they ran Genoa like a corporation, competing against Florence and Venice, and thus EVERYONE benefited.

This is also why I tend to trust Trump more than any other career politician of either party because he will return to the private sector. A career politician is simply taken care of for life and has nothing to return to. We are the lower class scum to be exploited and disrespected.


My bottom-line political philosophy is that the “We the People” should be in charge directly — not career politicians, EVER!. You have your bureaucrats who run the government who are accountable to the people directly. I do not support people like Soros or Bill Gates using their money to take over huge swaths of government. The office of Inspector General is only a symbolic gesture to the old Roman Tribunus plebis, tribune of the people, who could bring charges against any government official. That power should be restored. I do not support “Republics” nor career politicians that can be bought and paid for.

The Legacy of Socrates for Humanity

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

Thank you for spending your precious time to compose such a detailed blog post. The gems within your answer truly clarify this seemingly impossible situation for me. We *are* all connected and cycles are clearly human nature playing out. Greed, as you noted, is part of that equation. Socrates is the most important contribution to mankind that I can think of. Socrates can one day (finally) allow us to see our humanity and alter our course for the better.

Warm wishes,

J, Austin, TX

REPLY: Thank you. I have seen the world and how it functions. I’m extremely fortunate to have had a front-row seat from Europe to Asia, and even advising China during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. There are some things you can only come to understand by doing it. All the great economists who actually contributed something were traders who were not formally educated. Trading is the ultimate teacher, for it makes sure we must remain humble. Being called into China taught me something that should have been obvious, yet was never articulated.

I was taken to a secret installation in a motorcade that was surrounded by tanks and had three huge satellites on the roof. They were monitoring every commodity in the country, but they were not sintering. They were tracking 249 varieties of tea. They were fascinated that the same tea was selling for different prices in different cities. I had to explain transportation costs and human desire always mean something different from someplace else. Under communism, they were used to everything being the same price even it if cost twice as much to transport it across the country. I was there for the transition from communism to capitalism.

I have witnessed so many things around the world being called in to even the birth of the G5 (now G20) to the stock market and economic collapses. I have been called in by so many governments in times of crisis that it has taught me a variety of events and opened my eyes to the world economy and how we are all connected.

What I have witnessed is that we are all connected and it is IMPOSSIBLE for any head of state to stand up and promise some economic solution that requires global actions. The world economy has been destroyed from manufacture to food supply and distribution chains. What has been done is just beyond stupid. We cannot even imagine how world leaders were stupid enough to follow the advice of Neil Ferguson.  It is my hope that Socrates will one day be consulted rather than this sort of unprofessional approach to something that is so damaging that it threatens, not just starvation, but world war.

ANYONE who bad-mouths me personally is trying to prevent anyone from discovering that a computer can do an unbiased job, which threatens some aspect of their income or they are being paid under the table to try to prevent any change to the status quo. Attacking me personally is like attacking your wife because you did not take out the trash. All I can do is hope that when I am gone, they will be left with the reality of just a computer — not me.

Socrates & its Forecast of Shortages in Food for this 8.6-Year Wave


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am beyond impressed with the forecast your computer puts out. More than a year in advance you forecast that this wave would be inflationary but due to shortages in food. I do not know how it makes such an interesting forecast, but nobody out there can even come close which is obviously why they try to mimic you while ignoring you and hope nobody lands on your site.

Thank you for bringing clarity to this chaos

All the best


ANSWER: Yes, Socrates was projecting this would be a wave of inflation coming from SHORTAGES of food. We are already witnessing rising food prices. It was picking up all the subtle shifts in the world economy and I could see that something strange was in the development by last August 2019. Obviously, like war, it cannot forecast the precise person but it does reveal their actions. This is the same forecast ability. It was showing a shortage of food for this cycle, but it could not tell me it would be instigated by Bill Gates and the World Economic Forum trying to push their Great Reset.

Nevertheless, there are serious shortages of food on the horizon. Those who are attempting to destroy the economy so they can recreate it in their image are clueless about how the world economy functions. All they have looked at is their stupid models on CO2 when CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere. They have wiped out crops by destroying the food chain and either they are totally ignorant of their actions, or they have deliberately also tried to invoke starvation to reduce the population. Nobody will investigate either and I am sure they would claim to be ignorant of the impact on the food supply by pushing for lockdowns. There is ample evidence that this excuse is BS and they must know what they are doing which would bring up the question of crimes against humanity. They will then probably blame global cooling.

The Forecaster Will be Available for Streaming on Amazon Soon

European Civil Unrest Erupting in Germany & the Netherlands

Riots are erupting all over Europe. In Stuttgart, a total of 400 to 500 people participated in the riots since Sunday night with 19 police officers injured. The same is unfolding in the Hague in the Netherlands. These politicians know nothing about human nature. Our studies of time and riots warned that a simple correlation provided a forecast that the civil unrest would turn violent after 4 to 6 weeks. We have even provided a listing of US civil unrest incidents.

These politicians are clueless as to what they are trying to do, using this virus as the excuse to civilly imprison people until they destroy all CO2 producing companies. They are fully conspiring with the climate change people by using the virus as the excuse to destroy the world economy.

Will the Dollar Crash?

QUESTION: Good morning from Greece Martin!! It will be very interesting to have your comment on Steven’s Roach interview at CNBC about an upcoming dollar collapse due to the ballooning US deficit.

My respect for your job,

ANSWER: This is the typical myopic nonsense. All they ever do is look at the quantity of money and focus exclusively on the United States. There is a dollar shortage because around the world people fear their own governments. About 70% of all paper dollars are outside the USA. With the prospect of Europe canceling their currency and their inability to sell debt, they will push to convert all debt to perpetual bonds without notice; the dollar will be the LAST to crack. Make no mistake about it — the dollar will crack for that is the Monetary Crisis Cycle. But this comes in stages.

These economists look at domestic numbers and always rely on the Quantity Theory of Money, and they have been dead wrong ever since 2009. The dollar would crash if Trump lost the election, for then the Democrats would join the socialists of Europe. Pelosi already tried to slip in the “digital dollar” in preparation of also canceling the currency to enforce raising taxes.