SpaceX Orbital Starship AND Booster Receive Engines Waiting FAA Announcement


spaceXcentric  Published on Rumble on June 10, 2022 

SpaceX prepares to static fire Starship Super Heavy 24/7. Falcon 9 breaks another record during the Nilesat 301 mission. Polaris Dawn gives us an update. And we finish with today’s Honorable Mention. Ep 326

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Russian Oil Revenue Returns to Pre Sanction Levels in May


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Western sanctions against Russia have been used primarily to obfuscate the cause of western inflation and keep the citizen pitchforks from reaching various government offices.  So far, the strategy -assisted by western media- has been mostly successful.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reporting that despite the western sanctions against Russia, the Russian energy sector is having no trouble finding customers for its oil sales.  With global oil prices at their highest rates in years, in part driven by the energy policy of the same western leaders who triggered the sanctions, Russia is getting just as much economic benefit as it was before the sanctions regime was triggered.

(EU FINANCE) – Russia continued to rake in oil revenues in May despite a global boycott from companies and most countries following its invasion of Ukraine, a new report has shown.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Kremlin’s oil-export revenues surged to around $20bn last month, an 11% increase from the month before, despite shipping lower volumes.

Its latest monthly report, published on Wednesday, said this takes Moscow’s total revenue for shipping oil and crude products roughly back to levels before the invasion of Ukraine. Russian exports fell by about 3% due to lower oil-product flows, the Paris-based agency estimates.

Meanwhile, crude shipped during the month grew by nearly 500,000 barrels a day compared to the start of the year, largely thanks to higher deliveries in Asia.

“China and India, which have both sharply increased crude oil purchases from Russia, are net product exporters and have no need to lift Russian products,” it said. (read more)

Fed Governor Christopher Waller Predicts We Have Reached Peak Inflation, Here Is What they Will Not Say


Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance

Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here.  All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.

The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose.  They did not make a mistake.  The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates.  It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees.  WATCH:

The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year.  The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working.  They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else.  Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year.  By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.

So that’s why they waited.  But here’s the worse part….

All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers.  They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.

All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation.  All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust.  All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.

All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates.   None of them do not know.

Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.

That’s what this is all about.

Everything is politically motivated.

Producer Price Index Sets New Record at 11.2 Percent Wholesale Inflation, Highest Rate Ever Recorded


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance 

he “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.

The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price.  Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery.  I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.

Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent.  The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.

The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting.  You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services.  I see support for that thesis within this data.

The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order.  Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences.  Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021.  The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).

The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften.  See Table B, Intermediate goods.  Again, modified to take out the noise:

While the yearly comparison for both processed and unprocessed intermedia goods is eye dropping, in the unprocessed intermediate demand goods, we are starting to see a lessening of monthly price increases.

In essence, prices have been rising so fast and for such an extended period of time, that we are now cycling through the rate of increase and starting to compare it to last year when the rate of increase was originally going high.  As a consequence, the rate of price increase will likely lessen, even though the actual price may still keep climbing within the manufacturing process.

The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising.  In addition to the consumer prices reported yesterday, this wholesale price data is showing the most recent increases (March) in fuel and transportation costs.  For the next report these figures should now plateau.

♦ BOTTOM LINE – We have not yet reached PEAK INFLATION – However, the price increases from wholesalers to retailers are now at parity.  The increased price of things coming into the supply chain are now at similar rates of increase when compared to the stuff on the shelves.

Inflation from field to fork is now fully matriculated and embedded in the total economy as a result of two massive price waves (July to October 2021 and November to March 2022).  Those prices will never fall.

Highly consumable goods like food, fuel and energy will remain at approximately the price today for a period of around five months, then we will see the third wave kick in as the new higher harvest prices hit the processors in late summer.

The prices for non-essential durable goods, like cars, electronics, appliances etc. from this moment forth will now be determined by demand.   Highly sought after goods will increase in price as more customers chase fewer products.  However, ordinary or widely available durable goods will likely start to come down in price very soon as inventories climb because consumer spending has prioritized and dropped non essential goods from their shopping lists.

To put it more succinctly:  The stuff we need will cost more. The stuff we don’t need will cost less.

Let’s Go Brandon

Comments & Free Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Mar 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.

But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.

So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.

EM

COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.

All the best from Poland

and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw

VA

REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.

Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.

There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.

The Fed Has Spoken


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Dec 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”

As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.

“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed.  “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.

The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.

Inflation to Rise into 2034?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation continued to surge, reaching 5.4% in September. Janet Yellen has never been right about anything and keeps calling this “transitory,” as if it will vanish in a few weeks. The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which is supposed to measure a basket of goods and services as well as energy and food costs, came in at 5.4% in September from a year earlier, well beyond expectations. However, our model was projecting a rise in inflation into 2021 which is 13 years up from the November 2008 low. It is interesting how the COVID restrictions with lockdowns came in on target with our computer’s forecast. Curious how events seem to fulfill the forecast when it is done by a computer rather than human judgment.

Nevertheless, as you can see from the chart, inflation has bounced on a month/month basis, but it has not yet reached the Downtrend Line. The long-term forecast beyond a mere decade projects the historical high will be due in 2034, which should exceed all previous highs. A month/month number above 1.05% will signal that inflation is breaking out, and we will indeed make all-time record highs going into 2034.

4.3 Million Quit Jobs in August – Vaccines?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Oct 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The numbers are out — 4.3 million people in the US quit their jobs in August. This is the largest number since 2000. The leading sector is hotels and restaurants. I have a friend who has a daughter who had two jobs. She worked as a waitress/bartender at night and at a health food store during the day. She was very industrious, to say the least, and quite impressive. However, she quit the health food job because they demanded a vaccine. She said the bar owner was going to impose a vaccine rule and more than 50% of the staff said they would quit.

Meanwhile, New York’s bars and restaurants are hurting for business because of the vaccine mandates. Our most honorable leaders, who are most likely taking money from Pfizer lobbyists worldwide, are realizing that resistance is not futile. You can mandate vaccines and pretend they are 100% safe, but the truth always surfaces. The people can bring down the entire system if they simply refuse to participate.

Many journalists are too busy selling Biden’s propaganda about the vaccines. The FDA admits there are risks, but they, in their sole discretion, announced they “believe” the benefits outweigh the risk without any explanation of the analysis or a single word of caution (e.g., if you have certain conditions, you should not take the vaccine) despite doing so for other vaccines. So while the press and the Biden Administration are ignoring the facts and the trend, this only raises the question: How much has Pfizer and Moderna paid you?

Jen Psaki Tells Stunning and Dangerous Lies About Transitory Inflation, Claims Price Increases Will Stop – They Won’t


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2021 | Sundance | 249 Comments

I do not expect White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki to understand how her bosses policies are driving massive price increases; nor do I expect Psaki to understand economics and inflationary impacts.  However, the scale of her false statements surrounding inflation are not just false, they are now dangerous.

Following the release of the consumer price index [SEE table 2], in her press briefing today, Jen Psaki outlined the White House perspective on inflation, and specifically the Fed claims surrounding “transitory inflation.”

In her statements today, Psaki referenced people comparing the prices of 2021 consumable goods to 2020 and 2019.  [Video prompted below] Within the statements, the scale of falsity is off the charts.  WATCH [Video at 19:00 to 22:42, prompted]

There is not one single thing about that three minute verbal exchange that is accurate.  Fast turn consumable goods, groceries etc., did not drop in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic.  Factually, all goods but especially consumable goods increased in price throughout the pandemic, because demand actually increased and the supply chains were unable to keep up.

Example.  A loaf of bread at $2.50 in 2019, climbed to $3.00 in 2020.  That price jumped again to $3.75 this year (2021) and will likely continue rising as monetary policy driven inflation continues devaluing our currency.

Even if, as Psaki claims, inflation slows down  (not likely) – “decelerating inflation” does not mean declining prices; it means a slower rate of price increase.   Stuff still costs more, it just costs more at a slower rate.  Consumable goods will cost more in 2022 than they do this year.  The 2022 loaf of bread likely to climb to $4.00; it will never return to the 2019 price of $2.50 because the dollar is worth less.

♦ Ask the White House: Why did Joe Biden increase food assistance benefits by 25% if inflation was transitory?

[The Consumer Price Index was released today.  The producer price index for Sept will be released tomorrow]

This massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration in combination with the spending spree.  Inflation is a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. The first group to admit what was obvious were banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the primary cause.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years.

With Donald Trump’s policies, we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.

China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.

When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods.

Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.

In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so, when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S.-EU importers was the same as the outcome for U.S.-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.

In the middle of this, there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency, the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.

From 2017 through early 2020, U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where actual deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy.

For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.  However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.

Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.

♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation.

The JoeBama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy, via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending, drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.

With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets.  Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.

Simultaneously, a lower dollar value means cheaper exports for the massive multinational conglomerates who now control our farms and farming resources (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. food and raw material at a lower price. That means less food and raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers.

It is a perfect storm.  Higher costs for imported goods (durable goods) and higher costs for domestic consumable goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological Green New Deal policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.

Annualized inflation is now around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing in the short term. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means household purchasing of durable goods drop because people have less disposable income.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending.

If the spending continues, the Fed keeps printing money.  The dollar continues to be weakened.  As a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.

Tucker Carlson hit this point very well last night:

Kroger CFO Notes More and Faster Food Inflation Coming in Next Several Months


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 12, 2021 | Sundance | 78 Comments

This is not a surprise data-point for readers here.  However, it is good to see honest statements from corporate executives on what to expect with food inflation.

As noted by Kroger Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip in a call with financial media, we can expect to see even more rapid inflation in food prices overall in the next several months:

MSM – Cincinnati-based Kroger Co., which had $132 billion in sales last year, says inflation is running hotter than management previously anticipated and that expectations are now for prices to rise 2% to 3% over the second half of this year.

Kroger is “passing along higher cost to the customer where it makes sense to do so,” said CFO Gary Millerchip on the company’s second-quarter earnings call on Friday. (read more)

The reason for more inflation is not too difficult to understand.  Fresh foods show fast price increases immediately because they have almost no pre-existing inventory.  Fresh foods go from field to fork the fastest, and price increases show up immediately.  The same applies to restaurants.

However, processed foods and shelf stable foods have a deeper inventory, the turns on that inventory take longer, and as a consequence, it takes longer for the price increases to show up.  Millerchip is simply saying the total supply chain price increases are going to hit, and they are going to hit even harder than the last few months, as the new processed inventory carries a higher cost.

The skyrocketing prices at the grocery store are predictable based almost entirely on Joe Biden’s pro-Wall Street and Multinational Corporation policies.  Main Street is getting hammered, and the working class is suffering as a direct result.

Their specific accountability for these outcomes is why the Biden administration is trying to distract and blame COVID-19 for supply chain issues.  However, it is not COVID driving the prices, it’s Joe Biden policies that benefit multinationals.  {Go Deep}

Food products are fast-turn consumable goods, and the inflation in the food sector is jaw-dropping already.  However, fresh and processed foods turn at different inventory levels.

Obviously fresh foods spoil fastest (think produce, fish, meats and dairy), so they are replenished more quickly, and the thin supply chain (field to fork) passes along increased costs fast. Processed foods have a longer shelf life (boxed, canned, frozen, etc), and as a consequence, have a much larger inventory level in manufacturing, warehousing and retail storerooms/shelves.  Within processed foods, there is a lag between cost increase at origination and that cost hitting the stores.

The problem identified within the current ‘producer price index’, is that price increases in the raw material and intermediate material are building into the supply chain.  Keep in mind, the entire supply chain is dependent on energy costs and the fuel prices that impact transportation.

The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality.  There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products (2020 data).  The previously processed food price increases are currently reflected on store shelves (already hurting).  However, the coming processed processed food price increases will be much, much higher.  We will see even higher prices on processed foods in the supermarket.

The same price increases happen for restaurants, albeit faster as they follow the similar supply chain to fresh foods.

Pro Tip – Buy your Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday shelf-stable items now (spices, condiments, flour, sugars, dried foods etc.) before the prices go up in the next few months.