Revealing History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Mar 31, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I find it interesting how two people the general consensus has said were scoundrels, John Law and Julius Caesar, you have shown were actually people against the establishment. I read your Anatomy of a Debt Crisis and you have put together the contemporary historians where everyone else just seems to rely on the fake news of the day.

Thank you for digging up the facts.

HY

REPLY: When I was in high school, I had to read Galbraith’s “Great Crash.” Nowhere in his book did he ever mention defaults on national debts by any country. When I came across Herbert Hoover’s memoirs in an old book store in London, this was probably the second thing that changed my life, with the first being the movie  “The Toast of New York” about the Panic of 1869 when gold hit $162.50, which I had to watch in history class. I learned not to trust the history books, and the best way to find out the truth was always to return to the contemporary reports of history and/or the newspapers of the time.

The coinage has been a major factor in identifying the history and accurately dating events. Here is an extremely rare coin of Julius Caesar. Note that there is no portrait of him. He is announcing his victory in Gaul. His Gallic campaign was initially a piecemeal affair, but within six years, he had expanded Roman rule over the whole of Gaul. Following years of relative success, mainly thanks to the disconnected nature of the tribes allowing him to take them on separately (divide and conquer), Caesar was faced with the chief of the Arverni tribe, Vercingetorix, who too late had built a confederation to stand against Caesar. In 52 BC, despite formidable resistance, Caesar finally defeated Vercingetorix at the Battle (or Siege) of Alesia. This illegal war which by Caesar’s own account had left a million dead, was instrumental in elevating him to a position of supreme power among the statesmen of the late Republic, making him incredibly wealthy through war booty and also making him dangerously popular with the plebs — the common people.

This coin was struck in the course of Caesar’s war against the Senatorial faction led by Pompey and later Metellus Scipio. Caesar’s triumphant coinage trumpets his military achievements and conquest in Gaul while reminding the bearer also of his claimed descent from Venus through Aeneas. Interestingly, behind the bust is how old he is IIL or 48 years old. The reverse figure tied below the trophy of arms is popularly believed to depict the defeated Vercingetorix. The figure is carefully rendered in detail of how the Gauls appeared unshaven often with tattoos in blue to frighten their opponents.

In order to consolidate his power when he returned, Caesar produced triumphant coinage to spread the news of his military capability. The reverse of this coin is popularly believed to depict Vercingetorix himself. In 48-47 BC, the defeated Gallic chieftain still languished in the Tullianum, the underground prison beneath the Comitium. He would be hauled out for Caesar’s triumph in 46 BC, then returned to his cell and strangled.

This example of Julius Caesar AR Denarius was struck by a military mint moving with Caesar to pay the troops on a regular basis between 48-47 BC.

This is a Roman silver denarius struck by Brutus announcing he killed Caesar on the Ides of March 15, 44 BC (EID MAR). As you can see, the coinage can actually be used to confirm history to the year and sometimes to even the very day.

What is 2032?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 30, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have asked, “Why is 2032 going to be such a major change in the world’s political economy and society as a whole?”

We are confronted by the end of the Sixth Wave come 2032, which will be a profound economic and political change. It appears these world leaders are pushing us toward fulfilling the vision of Kalus Schwab and his distorted view of how society functions. While the first wave marked the collapse of Rome, 794 marked the collapse of the Nara period in Japan as the capital then moved to Kyoto. That would last until 1185 AD when government was overthrown, marking the birth of the Shogun Period (military general authority). The Great Seljuk Turkish Empire had its origins, with its first capital in 1037. By 1092, the Seljuk Empire was at its greatest upon Malik Shah I’s death and had captured most of the Byzantine Empire, creating the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 in Constantinople. Alexius I (1081-1118AD) of Byzantium saw his empire carved up.

It was 1075 when the Investiture Dispute began, where the Pope opposed kings appointing bishops to control. He had to threaten the ex-communication of kings, which only concluded in 1103. This was the start of the separation of church and state. In 1084, Emperor Henry IV deposed Pope Gregory VII and installed the first Anti-Pope Clement III who then crowned Henry Holy Roman Emperor. A revolution in 1094 resulted in Pope Urban II overthrowing the Anti-Pope and Henry lost power over Italy. But by 1111, Henry V captured the Pope, forced his settlement, and then crowned Henry V as Holy Roman Emperor. By 1112, the Church splits between Papal and Imperial supporters.

The Balkans had been overrun by the Patzinaks who were a nomadic people of the Turkic family. Their original home is unknown, but during the 8th and 9th centuries, they inhabited the region between the lower Volga and the Urals. They then laid siege to Constantinople itself in 1090 AD. They led Alexius to ask for help from Venice, which began the First Crusade (1096–1099) where they took Jerusalem. But the Venetians were more interested in plundering Constantinople. Thus, 1104 marked the peak in the Byzantine Empire and by the Latin rulers who seized Byzantium taking control 1204-1261 AD. It wasn’t until 1298 when the reign of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire, began.

The financial crisis in France led to the default on loans to Italian bankers and the seizure of the Papacy itself moving it to Avignon in France known as the Avignon Papacy, also known as the Babylonian Captivity, which was period from 1309 to 1376. The French Anti-Pope seized the Knights Templars on Friday, October 13, 1307, to confiscate all their wealth and that of their clients. The Knights Templars had become the first real international banking system as they evolved following their founding around 1117/1118 AD, lasting for 22 waves of 8.6 years. This next wave also saw the Black Plague (1347-1351) wipe out 50% of the population, which then changed the economy by shifting it from serfdom in Europe to capitalism as wages began to take place because of the shortage of labor.

The next peak in the cycle 1413.75 marked the start of the religious revolution. In England, the Oldcastle Revolt was a Lollard uprising against both the Catholic Church and the English King Henry V. Oldcastle was influenced by Lollard cleric William Swynderby, who preached in Almeley during his youth. Lollardy was a politico-religious movement initiated by prominent theologian John Wycliffe during the 1370s. The Lollard beliefs dealt with their opposition to capital punishment, rejection of religious celibacy, and belief that members of the Clergy should be held accountable to civil laws. In addition, it was the rise of the iconoclasty, which took place in the Byzantine Empire, where they rejected ornamentation of churches, religious images, and pilgrimages. They objected to war, violence, and abortion. John Oldcastle led the revolt, and it took place on the night of 9/10 January 1414. The rebellion was absolutely crushed at the battle on St. Giles’s Fields. There was rising discontent in religion that manifested on October 31, 1517, when Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to the door of the Wittenberg Castle church in Germany.

This next wave peaked in 1723.35, not merely saw the Protestant Reformation impact region, but with the fall of Constantinople in 1453, scholars fled to Europe and Russia, taking the wealth of knowledge with them. By 1492, Christopher Columbus convinced others that the world was round and not flat based upon maps that came from Constantinople. While it would slowly expand the knowledge in Europe, the Age of Enlightenment is formally classified as being between 1715-1789, which really became the foundation for the next wave into 2032.

But this wave was the beginning of the crisis with a monarchy. Columbus was backed by Spain, which then became the new financial capital of Europe. But the mismanagement by the monarchy led to Spain becoming a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647, ending in a third world status by the end of this wave. King Philip V of Spain abdicated the throne in 1724 to go to a monastery.

In England, on October 17, 1722, the Habeas Corpus Act was suspended because of a Jacobite plot to take the thrown by a Catholic James III they called the Old Pretender, and Parliament prohibited journalists from reporting on political debates. From here on out, the tone for the next wave was set in motion. The rise against the monarchy. This was the wave of human rights and it moves into its culmination come 2032 with the rise against human rights and the attempt once more to suppress the people with the rise of authoritarianism. This is once more a major turning point, and we will face a dramatic change both economically and politically on a global scale.

The forthcoming “The Discovery of the Business Cycle” goes into the details of these waves throughout history with not merely political facts but also the rise and fall of the world’s monetary system.

The Greatest Female Trader of All Time?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Traders Re-Posted Mar 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: First I want to thank you for your guidance. You have helped me understand markets where I can see I was clueless before. You seem to be a contrarian. I take it that is why you say the majority must always be wrong. Have you learned this to be the best way to look at the world?

Thank you for shining a light in these dark times.

GR

ANSWER: The greatest traders of all time have always been contrarians. They can see the patterns within patterns and how history repeats right before their eyes. Jesse Livermore (1877 – 1940) turned bullish in 1923. He could see the bull market coming. The Wall Street Journal accused him of turning bullish to influence the presidential elections. When they were proven wrong, they simply refused ever to quote Jesse ever again. Many have pointed out that Barrons had reported that our model was calling for new highs back in 2010 more as a joke. They have never reported ever again how it was correct. It appears that the media does not like it when they are wrong and will retaliate.

Hetty Green (1834-1916) was a woman in a man’s world. She became not just one of the wealthiest and most astute investors in American history, but she became the richest woman perhaps in the world. Hetty’ was known for her extreme frugality, which was exploited by her adversaries and made for good copy in the press. They dubbed her the “Witch of Wall Street” because she was such a good trader her wealth could outdo even the top ten Wall Street bankers in her day. She was in reality a woman in a man’s world, during the era of robber barons when deals were done in dark oak wooden rooms filled with cigar smoke clouds that you would think it was going to rain.

Her reputation as the “Witch of Wall Street” was undeserved and today they would call it sexist. Hetty was the first female billionaire in modern terms who would be worth $10 billion+ in 2021. When she died in 1916, she was worth between $100-$125 million when a dollar was really worth something. She actually despised many of the titans of industry and finance of the day for their predatory ways and profligate spending. She actually sympathized more with the average hardworking citizen, yet she followed in her father’s Quaker footsteps.

Hetty Green was the woman of the Gilded Age. Few men could compete with her mentally. Hetty was abandoned at birth by her mother and she was viewed as a female by her father. Against this backdrop, Hetty set out as a child to prove she was of substance and had value. She followed the simple rules of her wealthy Quaker father, and always was extremely frugal. She would accompany him to the counting houses, storehouses, commodity, and stockbrokers. She observed trading from an early age and clearly saw the patterns within patterns.

While she inherited money, she understood trading. Perhaps her greatest trade was buying greenback bonds during the Civil War and into the panic of 1869. Some painted it as she never lost faith in America’s potential, but from a practical standpoint, she could see that the North was the industrial hub against the South which was agricultural. Others claim she just ignored the herd mentality and took advantage of financial panics and crises.

Indeed, during the civil war, Hatty bought federal bonds when the greenback would collapse against gold. In 1862, the greenback declined against gold until the end of the year when gold was trading at a 29% premium to the paper greenbacks. The following year, by spring of 1863, the greenback collapsed to $152 against $100 in gold. After the Gettysburg victory, the greenback bounced back to $131 to $100 in gold. Then came 1864 when General Grant was making very little headway against General Lee. When it looked bleak in 1864, that is when the Greenback collapsed to its lowest point reaching during July 1864 briefly to $258 greenbacks to $100 in gold.

The Greenback began to recover, dropping back to the $1509 level. Congress limited the total issue of greenbacks to $450 million, which helped to support their value. Then the Panic of 1869 hit, and Greenbacks fell again to $162.50. Hetty made a fortune buying the Greenbacks at the lows. Then in December 1878, Congress made the Greenbacks on par with gold. What bonds in Greenbacks she was buying, she gained not just the interest but also about doubled her money on this trade alone.

Therefore, Hetty bought railroads, real estate, and bonds. She could smell blood in the streets, as they say in financial markets, and she was there to buy it up. Men mocked her, and women scoffed at her frugal ways. Nevertheless, she had thick skin, and because she would buy in the panics and win, they called her the “Witch of Wall Street.” Yet, she even supplied the loans that kept the city of New York itself from going bankrupt. Even when the markets panicked, Hetty looked at the trend and had a nose for seeing the market. She would be there lending money at 25%.

Hetty is said to have relished a challenge. When her aunt died and did not leave Hetty the fortune she expected, she filed a groundbreaking lawsuit that still resonates in law schools and courts. When her husband defied her and sank her money on his own risky interests, she threw him out and, marching down to Wall Street, quickly making up the loss. Her independence, outspokenness, and disdain for the upper crust earned her a reputation for harshness that endured for decades.  Yet, those who knew her admired her warmth, her wisdom, and her wit.

When Hetty died, she did leave a fortune.

Her son, Edward Howland Robinson Green (1868-1936), was not so frugal. He was an avid collector and bought the famous sheet of 100 inverted air mail stamps in 1918, paying $20,000. The last example sold after a few years and brought in $1.3 million. He also had bought all five of the known 1913 Liberty Head nickels and as many as seven of the rare 1838-O half dollars. He also held dozens of high-grade 1796 quarters.

Pi Day is Here


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, Happy Pi Day. This was your destiny since you grew up in a house numbered 314.

Cheers

HB

REPLY: Perhaps you are right. I never thought about Pi until I was trying to figure out how the model would work precisely at times to the very day as it did in 1987. I was dumbfounded. I had thought the 8.6 was just an average. I had no idea that it was a derivative of Pi – 8.615384615. But that is the way research should be conducted. I never began with a theory I was trying to prove and thus only looked for supporting data. I think all the great discoveries in human history are by accident.

I am working right now on The Geometry of Time. I am covering all the various people who have pondered even what is TIME from Aristotle to Richard Feynman and his proposition that antimatter is matter moving backward in TIME. I am trying to cover all the various methods over the centuries that many have looked at exploring TIME. I believe that cyclical analysis is the best way to ascertain a glimpse of TIME and the state of the future.

I am working hard to get this next book The Geometry of Time out and its companion the Discovery of the Business Cycle – The Economic Confidence Model.

The Real Vortex & Astrology


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Feb 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you ever use astrology?

EK

ANSWER: No. Astrology I believe really dates back to at least the Babylonians. They conduct a research project catalog everything and attempted to correlate it to events. Clearly, astrology originated in Babylon far back in antiquity, with the Babylonians developing their own form of horoscopes around 2,400 years ago. Then around 2,100 years ago, it appears that astrology spread to the eastern Mediterranean, becoming popular in Egypt, which at the time was under the control of a dynasty of Greek kings. The oldest know astrologer’s board has been discovered which dated back prior to 2,000 years ago.

To me, it is still one-dimensional. We really live in a vortex as illustrated here. It is kind of looking at markets only in a single currency. The reality is far more complex. To me, you are measuring just to the planets, but we travel through the universe as well. The combinations are exponential.

The origin of what creates the cycles from the beginning of time may be like throwing a stone into a standing pool of water. At the very instant the stone hits the water, the amount of energy force is thereby set in motion. The waves are all predetermined.

I believe that based upon physics, the universe will expand only to a point whereby the energy of the movement will decline and then the internal gravity will cause it all to reverse direction and implode back to its original, and then it will start all over again. I believe the 8.6-year frequency which I have measured in economics to nature, was set in motion from the origin. There is nothing in this theory that is against divine creation. There is disagreement on that issue. Some argue the universe will keep expanding and perhaps run out of gas along the way. Others, like me, believe it is more like throwing a ball in the air. The resistance will eventually slow the upward movement and gravity will seize control and bring it back down to earth. I believe that is the more likely course of action simply because that is how everything else functions right down to a pendulum and cyclical activity.

The Shift from Public to Private on You Tube


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Feb 23, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Absence of Randomness


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: A follow-up up to your blog post – look at these striking similarities. A coincidence? Probably not, eh?

BC

REPLY: Yes, excellent find. Once you understand that everything is cyclical, to me it is sort of like the movie the Matrix. Suddenly he sees the code to everything. Once you understand that energy itself moves in a cyclical manner no matter what be it the waves in the ocean, light to even sound, then you will see the world in its true form. It can NEVER be reduced to a single dimension as the environmentalists do focusing only on CO2. That is so naive like believing in witch-doctors. The world is complex and we must look at all the permeations of interaction. History repeats because it is not random.

There are many dimensions to cyclical waves. But they all conform to clearly established rules. There is no such thing as a random walk. Anyone who says that is admitting they are incapable of multidimensional thinking and multitasking.

Personalized Robots


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Jan 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Great Conjunction Next Week


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Dec 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Numerous people always ask if astrology is incorporated into Socrates. The answer is no. From what I can say is that what I see is a complex network of numerous variables that keeps the global econo0my functioning. Trying to say that something will happen in the market because of a planetary convergence that people have been tracking for centuries is subjective to me. That said, planetary conjunctions may not be the cause of some event, but they may be part of a complex network that is behind events.

Next week we have the solstice, which will be the shortest day of the year. That comes every year and does not produce anything on a regular basis. However, this time we have Saturn and Jupiter that will appear to almost kiss this winter solstice, creating the illusion over the centuries that it is a major star appearing out of nowhere. Here, these two gas giants will look as though they’re are virtually one in the night sky in an event known as a “great conjunction,” which happens roughly every 20 years.

Nonetheless, this year’s great conjunction will be exceptionally close coming in just a tenth of a degree apart. The last time Saturn and Jupiter appeared as one star was July 16, 1623, back when the famous Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei observed it. However, this great conjunction varies in closeness and those events where it is this close take place only every 397 years.

This 397-year cycle is very interesting. It coincides with the 300-year cycle in weather caused by moving into a solar minimum. These events have marked when the climate has turned cold. During the 1600s, they called that the Little Ice Age. Note that in 829, that was also the peak in the mini-Ice Age where the Nile River frize i9n Egypt. On the 1226 event, it was also believed that the rare Christmas star was shown. This does not appear to be true but it may have marked the crucifixion of Christ.

Events in the heavens have traditionally been seen as omens of some event or another.  The appearance of a comet at the time of Julius Caesar’s death promoted his divinity for political purposes. His nephew Octavian, later to be given the name Augustus by the Senate (27 BC-14 AD), issued coins with the comet that appeared at the time of Caesar’s death with the legend: DIVVS IVLIVS (Divine Julius). This was self-serving and used as justification of his rule as the first Emperor of Rome beginning the Imperial Era. But that was not Halley’s Comet.

Halley’s Comet has been recorded as early as 467 BC by the Greeks. The Chinese chroniclers also mention a comet during this year. However, the Chinese astronomer Shiji also recorded its appearance in 240 BC. The Babylonians recorded its appearance in 164 BC in two clay tablets in the British Museum. Again, the Babylonians recorded its appearance once more in 87 BC. It was this appearance that lasted for about one month that was celebrated on the coinage of Tigranes II the Great, an Armenian king who is depicted here on coins with a crown and a curved tail. It was portrayed as ushering in a New Era of the brilliant King of Kings. Tigranes II the Great issued the earliest coin depicting Haley’s Comet which is represented by the star in his crown.

Halley’s Comet appeared around 12 BC and it was recorded in the Book of Han by Chinese astronomers of the Han Dynasty. They tracked it from August through October during 12 BC. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, a comet appeared almost suspended over Rome for several days at the time of the death of Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa who was Augustus’ close friend. He issued a coin depicting Agrippa with a comet above his head.

There has been considerable debate about whether Halley’s Comet was also the Star of Bethlehem. The appearance in 12 BC, is not that distant from the conventionally assigned date of the birth of Jesus Christ which has a range of 6AD to 4AD. This is based mostly on the biblical story of Herod the Great. Not long before Herod’s death, which is generally attributed to have occurred in 4BC but even that is in dispute.

Referencing the Haley Comet connection, some theologians and astronomers have also to suggested that this might explain the biblical story of the Star of Bethlehem and provide a more documented confirmation of his birth coinciding with the time of the death of Agrippa. However, there are also records of other comets that appeared closer to the date of Jesus’ birth.  In a 1991 article in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, astronomer Colin Humphreys proposed that the Star of Bethlehem was actually a slow-moving comet, which Chinese observers recorded in 5 BC.

So as you can see, correlating events in the heavens with events on earth has been a pastime for centuries. What does this mean for next week? Besides the fact that the Electoral College must get the final votes to Washington on December 23rd next week where electors could still upset the apple cart, what comes through from this 397-year cycle is the exceptionally cold weather were are having this winter.

In addition to the colder weather, simultaneously there are also droughts. The Hunger Stones marking droughts appeared in 2018. I have been warning that we are witnessing major droughts around the world. The droughts that have been recorded on the Hunger Stones dating to 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893, which covers a period of 476 years.

I have been warning that while there are colder winders, not warming, and we have droughts in the summer, this is by no means caused by humans. This is a clear historical trend if anyone bothered to look at the contemporary sources during these periods

The Discovery in Volterra


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Oct 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

In Tuscany, Italy, a major discovery has been made of the only amphitheater to have been discovered that was never excavated before. This is being called the “Archaeological Discovery of the Century,” for everything else has been cleared over by people for centuries. The location is the ancient Italian city of  Volterra, which was once part of the Etruscan culture dating back to the 8th century BC that was eventually conquered by Rome. The coinage of Volterra was cast bronze clearly showing that the monetary system dated back to the Bronze Age when the Minoan culture was the great empire prior to 1650 BC and the eruption of Thera known today as Santorini.

The archaeological discovery is very important. It will be most interesting to see what comes out of this site, but then again, they are using COVID to crush society for the real end goal of climate change.