Apparently our CTH suspicions were correct; this is interesting.  Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is scheduled to leave Canada on Tuesday for a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Singapore…. Meanwhile U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and a high-level Mexican team -consisting of both incoming AMLO and exiting Nieto delegations- will be meeting again to determine the details of a bilateral trade deal.

Mexican Economy Minster Ildefonso Guajardo is from the outgoing Pena Nieto administration and was part of the crew supporting the Canadian position; ie. the plan to continue exploiting the NAFTA loophole.  However, Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has selected Jesus Seade as his lead person for trade negotiations and appears more willing to engage in a bilateral trade deal with the U.S.

AMLO’s Jesus Seade, Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer are meeting again this Thursday to put the outline of a deal together; while Canada is sidelined from the discussion.

Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association in Canada, said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans and the Mexicans came to some resolution on that piece (autos) and then the Americans flip it back to Canada and say ‘Take it or leave it’.”  That is exactly what CTH anticipated was going to happen.

Remember, with Canada joining the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the issues of the NAFTA fatal flaw expand exponentially.  The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would now be able to exploit partner Canada as a gateway into the U.S. market. POTUS Trump is having nothing to do with that nonsense.

In the big picture AMLO wants to advance the Mexican manufacturing base; expand the aggregate economic base; and also stop the corporate exploitation of the Mexican farm worker. In these objectives U.S. President Trump is more than willing to be a partner with President Lopez Obrador. Heck, President Trump would actually love to assist AMLO on that agenda; it is mutually beneficial.

Diametrically, Justin from Canada has doubled-down on the retention of the fatal flaw and does not want an expanded domestic manufacturing base. The enviro-nuts of his base just will not support it and a carbon tax looms on the horizon.

As a consequence, Canada is loggerheads with the United States because Canada is demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market, and simultaneously retain their ability to broker imported Chinese/ASEAN goods.

This means a trade deal with Mexico is possible; and a trade deal with Canada is almost impossible. So the U.S. has focused on negotiations with Mexico for terms of an ‘agreement in principle’, at an “unprecedented speed.” In this regard, according to U.S.T.R. Lighthizer, the U.S. and Mexico are very close to coming to that agreement. The U.S. team and Mexican team met last Thursday in Washington DC, and are now scheduled to meet this Thursday – again in DC.

(Reuters) […] There will be “technical meetings probably until Wednesday and a ministerial meeting on Thursday,” a Mexican source close to the talks told Reuters on Monday. A second Mexican source close to the talks also said a ministerial meeting was planned for Thursday. (link)

If the U.S. and Mexico come to an agreement, two key issues are resolved which puts even more leverage and pressure on Canada: First, the biggest downside concern for the U.S. agriculture sector would be belayed.  Second, depending on the terms, the Mexican economy, financial and stock market would stabilize.

In this scenario Canada becomes increasingly isolated, and unfortunately, with the Canadian idiotic carbon tax scheme fast approaching, manufacturing companies will be heading to the exits.

The terms are unknown and the strategy is still tenuous, however the U.S. and Mexico appear to be closing in on an agreement. Together the U.S. and Mexico likely then present a take-it-or-leave-it opportunity for Canada to join; either way, NAFTA is essentially dead and Canada really doesn’t have options.

Justin from Canada and Princess Rainbow Sparkles Freeland have really screwed up in this process.  They have allowed themselves to be blinded by pure political anti-Trumpism while pragmatic business and economic interests of the U.S. and Mexico have moved forward.

If things go as they appear to be heading…. Politically, President Trump explains why NAFTA is dead; the U.S. and Mexico immediately unveil the framework of the joint bilateral trade agreement; AMLO and Trump have political cover, a partnership is immediate; and U.S./Mexican business interests move forward with changes to Mexican manufacturing/assembly as way-points.  The Mexican NAFTA back-door closes over an agreed upon period of time.

Smart play.

P.S. … put this in the ‘out there’, but possible because Trump file:  We might see an announcement this Friday about an agreement in principle between the U.S. a

U.S. President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will be holding a joint press conference immediately following their bilateral meeting at the White House. Anticipated start time 2:00pm EST:

WH Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – RSBN Livestream Link

Moments ago President Donald Trump welcomed Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to the White House for his first official visit.

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[Transcript] Oval Office – 12:28 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Okay, thank you very much. Its my great honor to have Giuseppe Conte of Italy. He’s a man who’s doing a fantastic job. I really want to thank you very much for being here. We’ve become friendly over the G7 meetings and some phone calls.

And I agree very much what you’re doing with respect to migration and illegal immigration, and even legal immigration. Italy has taken a very firm stance on the border, a stance a few countries have taken. And, frankly, you’re doing the right thing, in my opinion. And a lot of other countries in Europe should be doing it also. Some have taken that stance a long time ago, and they’re doing a lot better.

So I just want to thank you, Giuseppe, for being with us. It’s an honor. We have a lot to talk about having to do with trade, having to do with our military. You’re ordering planes, lots of planes. The United States has a very large deficit, as usual, with Italy — about $31 billion. And I’m sure we’ll straighten that out pretty quickly.

But we find it a great honor to have you with us. Thank you. Thank you, Giuseppe.

PRIME MINISTER CONTE: Thank you. It’s a big honor for me, of course. And thank you for this kind invitation, for your warm hospitality.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: You’ll always be treated warmly. Okay? Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.

END 12:30 P.M. EDT

Media Shouting

Maria Bartiromo has an exclusive interview with Vice President Mike Pence to discuss the state of the economy and the ongoing administration policies therein.  VP Pence discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and the possibility of an agreement in principle between the U.S. and Mexico; a specific assignment for U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer.

President Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani appears on Fox News Sunday to talk about Donald Trump’s former legal counsel, Michael Cohen.

Interestingly Reuters uses the narrative from an anonymous Canadian “official” to frame an article about how global car manufacturers are coming together next week in Geneva to coordinate their strategy against the United States and President Trump.

Just let that part sink in for a moment…

Behind that context we can clearly see: 1) the economic importance of the Auto industry to the countries that are assembling; 2) their multinational corporate interest in retaining unlimited access to the U.S. market; and 3) the absolute need of all assembling corporations to find a way to keep their investments in NAFTA’s fatal flaw viable.

Who is gathering?  Canada, Mexico, the EU (ie. Germany), Japan and South Korea.

Where are they going?  To visit Geneva, Switzerland.  Why Geneva? Because that way China can attend (see Volvo/Sweden) without being on the official roster.  ::nudge, nudge:: ::wink, wink::  ::say-no-more Panda boy, say-no-more::  Additionally, Cecelia Malmström (EU Trade Minister), is the person Canada is relying upon to cover their anti-Trump position:

MEXICO CITY/OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada, the European Union, Japan, Mexico and South Korea will meet in Geneva next week to discuss how to respond to threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of autos and car parts, officials familiar with the talks said.

The Trump administration has come under heavy criticism from automakers, foreign governments and others as it considers tariffs of up to 25 percent, a levy critics warn will hike vehicle costs, hurting auto sales and global industry jobs.

Several auto manufacturing powers have been talking to each other in recent days about their fears and a possible coordinated response to Trump’s “Section 232” investigation, which he ordered on May 23, into whether auto imports are a threat to U.S. security, sources say.

The probe could be completed within weeks, although similar ones ordered last year that led to tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum took about 10 months. The Commerce Department has 270 days to offer recommendations to the president after such a probe starts. He then has 90 days to act upon them.

It was not immediately clear what kind of response the countries could be looking at, although Canada, the EU and Mexico retaliated with their own tariffs after Trump imposed levies on steel and aluminum imports in March. Another option is to fight the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Deputy ministers will gather in Geneva on July 31 to hear each other’s views, a Canadian official and a Mexican official told Reuters, asking to not be named because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

“The meeting is meant to bring together major auto producing nations so we can discuss our concerns over the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation of automobiles and parts,” said the Canadian government official. (read more)

Here’s where I will repeat the funniest aspect that seems continually missed by all of the international smart-set:

President Trump doesn’t care !

President Trump doesn’t care what the opinion of the Auto industry is.

President Trump is not beholden to the interests of the corporate auto industry.

President Trump doesn’t give a flip about what international leaders gather to discuss.

President Trump will do what is in the best interests of the United States and the workers within it. Period; end-of-story.  Done.

It is in the corporate and financial interests of the multinationals to retain their open-ended tariff-free access to the U.S. market by exploiting the back-door of NAFTA.  The multinational corporations have invested hundreds of billions on the supply chain and manufacturing system all using this NAFTA loophole. They have also paid hundreds-of-millions for the political policy of multiple world leaders, all to support and retain their interests therein.

Guess what?

President Trump doesn’t care.

If it is not in the best interests of the U.S., it simply will not be allowed.

The multinational corporate leaders can assemble and strategize until they are blue-in-the-face.  It matters not.

Seriously.  They might just as easily attend a Swiss pancake tossing contest.  POTUS Trump doesn’t care.  Eventually they are going to have to ask, beg, plead and grovel to retain their position.   When they accept the one constant in an ever changing universe, and finally realize the question is not “if” they will lose, but rather “how much”, then, and only then, will POTUS Trump enter the room with his golden tickets.

To get golden ticket access to the U.S. market, those multinationals are going to have to agree to President Trump’s terms.  Trump doesn’t care about their feelings; Trump doesn’t give a flip about their statements; Trump has one prism to consider any deal, negotiation or result: is it better for the United States of America?

If not, go spit.

That’s it.

Now, go make him a sandwich…

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The July 20th conversation with President Trump touched on the state of the U.S. economy; America’s trade reset; the timing of the trade reset juxtaposed against the current value of the U.S. stock market; the president’s news-making remarks about the Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest-rate hikes; and pragmatic insight behind the meeting with Vladimir Putin. Watch it, you’ll see:

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Wilbur Ross outlines the policy:

The head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett shares his perspective on the 4.1 percent GDP growth, and the ongoing MAGAnomic America-First initiatives.   Hassett rightly points out that finished good domestic inventories dropped as an outcome of consumer purchasing outpacing manufacturing.  As more manufacturing comes on-line, the production capacity expansion leads to more GDP growth.

Remember, one of the unique attributes of the U.S. economy, thanks to the foresight of industrial titans who built it, is our internal consumption.  We are not only the worlds’ largest economy, we are the biggest self-sustaining economy in the history of the world; a massively consequential strategic advantage. Our leverage comes from nations needing access to our market; the U.S. does not necessarily need access to theirs. Therefore POTUS Trump can dictate the terms.

Last week President Trump went to Granite City, Illinois, to celebrate the re-opening of a U.S. Steelworks manufacturing facility.

If you ever had any question about how important President Trump’s Main Street economic and manufacturing policies are to U.S. workers, well, just watch this interview with a formerly laid-off Granite City steelworker.  [Dusty Keyboard Alert]:

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“We’re back”

That’s the heartbeat of America right there!