Posted originally on TriSiteNew by SteveKirschOctober 25, 202113 Comments

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By Steve Kirsch

Summary: The VAERS underreporting factor (URF) is required information to be known for any risk-benefit of assessment of a vaccine. The fact that this number was never calculated by the FDA or CDC means that all the safety recommendations to date have been by guessing. This has resulted in the needless loss of life of well over 150,000 Americans.

VAERS is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. It is the official system relied upon by the FDA and CDC for adverse event tracking. 

For example, if you report an adverse event in V-Safe, the app they told you about when you got vaccinated, you are told to file a VAERS report. It is essentially the mother of all adverse event reporting systems for vaccine events in the US. There is nothing more comprehensive than VAERS.

The most important thing to know about VAERS is that it is always underreported. This is widely known. 

To properly interpret any safety data, you must know the underreporting factor (URF).

For example, the famous Lazarus report estimated the VAERS URF to be over 100:

“Although 25% of ambulatory patients experience an adverse drug event, less than 0.3% of all adverse drug events and 1-13% of serious events are reported to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health.”

The Baker paper, Advanced Clinical Decision Support for Vaccine Adverse Event Detection and Reporting, showed that “the odds of a VAERS report submission during the implementation period were 30.2 (95% confidence interval, 9.52–95.5).” 

In other words, the VAERS URF was at least 30 (since the system wasn’t perfect, 30 is a lower bound of the URF in that study), but they estimated that it was likely between 9.5 and 95.

The URF is normally calculated for very serious events since these are required to be reported for all vaccines by healthcare workers. That URF can then be applied to less serious events to create a conservative estimate of the true incidence rate (since less serious events would have a higher URF).

The method for calculating the URF is well known.

Sadly, the CDC has erroneously assumed that Vaccine Safety Datalink represents a fully reported comparator. 
This is clearly false as can be seen from slide 13 in ACIP Chair Grace Lee’s presentation delivered on August 30, 2021:

You can clearly see that VSD estimates are below the VAERS estimates.

Therefore, calculating the URF from anaphylaxis data from a prospective targeted study, such as the Blumenthal Mass General Brigham study that was published in JAMA provides a more accurate estimate. There was a second Blumenthal paper published again in JAMA (this time an Editorial rather than a Research Letter) showing an anaphylaxis rate that was 48X lower, but that is just to mislead people into taking the vaccine.

As a Professor of Biology I know wrote:

“You are correct in your analysis. The 2.4/10000 rate is based on all cases of anaphylaxis reported but the 5/1,000,000 is based only on inpatient hospital or emergency department visits.  You can undergo anaphylaxis without being admitted into the hospital going to the emergency room.  I also believe that the 5/1,000,000 applied the Brighton Collaboration criteria much too narrowly.  The second paper is just propaganda to get people vaccinated.”

When we do the math, we find that the URF is 41, well in line with the mean and range described in the Baker paper. It means that over 150,000 people have been killed by the vaccine so far (and we show 8 different ways in that paper, only one of which uses VAERS).

The troubling thing is this: nobody at the CDC, FDA, or on any of the outside committees will admit this. When they are asked, “what is the URF for serious events in VAERS for the COVID vaccine” they are unable to respond. Not even Steven A. Anderson of the FDA can answer that. He said he was the top guy for vaccine safety at the FDA. I heard him say that on a zoom call. 

He won’t talk. He doesn’t respond to emails, he doesn’t respond to voicemails. His staff doesn’t respond either. 

Janet Woodcock won’t tell me the URF. 

The friendly people at covid19vaxsafety@cdc.gov won’t tell me the URF.

Lorrie McNeill of the FDA won’t tell me the URF.

Tom Shimabukuro won’t tell me the URF.

John Su won’t tell me the URF. He pretends in his presentations to ACIP and VRBPAC committees that the URF=1 because he never points out that VAERS is underreported or what the reporting factor is. We have all that on the record.

No member of any of the outside committees of the FDA or CDC would respond to my multiple requests.

I have tried to find someone knowledgeable to interview to ask that question, but no prominent pro-vaccine person would consent to an interview. Eric Topol doesn’t respond. Monica Gandhi doesn’t respond. UCSF Dean of Medicine Bob Wachter won’t talk to me on camera. They are all afraid of being exposed. 

None of the fact checkers I asked would help me out.

Heck,  I couldn’t even get Health Nerd to consent to be interviewed by me. 

I thought it was just me.

To test that, I asked a former NY Times reporter (now working for another newspaper) to ask the question of the FDA and he was stonewalled as well. They refused to answer him. Silence as soon as he asked the question. But his paper won’t let him write a story about it.

Let’s be clear: you cannot do any sort of risk-benefit assessment without knowing the VAERS URF. It is impossible.

The fact that as of October 25, 2021 that nobody knows the URF for VAERS is a sign of mass incompetence and corruption at the FDA, CDC, and their external committees.

There is no other alternative.

This of course is why nobody at the FDA, CDC, or on the external committees wants to talk to me. Because I ask questions that they don’t want to answer. This is why censorship is required to silence people like me.

This is the biggest cover-up in history. CDC, FDA, mainstream media, nearly the entire medical community, and all the major social media companies are pitching in to silence people like me who ask questions we aren’t supposed to ask.

It’s pretty sad that nobody in the mainstream media is asking those questions, isn’t it?

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 5, 2021 | Sundance | 42 Comments

The outcome of this informal twitter survey by far-left hacktress Alyssa Milano is likely not what she had in mind.

The rabid ultra-Democrat who wears four masks, worships Anthony Fauci and loves to pontificate about her enlightened outlooks on all things political, received responses from her followers to the question of whether they would vaccinate their 5 to 11-year-old children.

The overwhelming response from almost 100,000 people on Twitter, is “Let’s Go Brandon”!

It’s easy to dismiss this as a non-scientific survey.  However ,the NBC survey recently released had a similar outcome.

When the issue turns to children being vaccinated under age 11, the vaccine advocacy position gets even worse politically. 64% of people with children under age 11 say they would not vaccinate their kids or would wait to see more data on long term consequences. Only 27% of respondents said they would immediately vaccinate their children with the untested COVID vaccine. That makes a political issue even worse for Democrats.  [Polling Pdf Here]

Posted originally on the conservative house on November 5, 2021 | Sundance | 30 Comments

As the Biden administration has now put a January 4th deadline on workers to comply with a federal mandate for forced medical treatment, the intensity of the resistance is beginning to increase and narrow their focus.

A video message attributed to workers within the Proctor and Gamble corporation warns Americans about the consequences of attempting to force vaccinations upon a productive workforce that will make independent decisions…. WATCH:

As we have continued to point out, a federal vaccine mandate might sound like a good idea on a think tank, academic or white-paper policy level of consideration; but on a practical level, wiping out a large percentage of the most productive workforce over a vaccine mandate is unworkable.  Well, that is, if those in power desired to keep the economic and civic society functioning on a reasonable level.

For the past twenty months this same group of millions of blue collar workers were called “essential workers.”  Then the narrative to support a political vaccine was shifted in order to leverage a political strategy; a strategy that needs division.  The “essential” have become the disposable.

It is important to note the recent NBC poll on this issue amid the outlook of the vaccine mandates.  A majority of the country do not support the vaccine mandates, and worse still, the number of unvaccinated workers is essentially unwavering in the past six weeks {poll data}.  Remember, the number of Americans who willingly quit their jobs increased to 4.3 million in August {link}. People are not f**king around now.

{DATA LINK}

The number of cumulative hard “NO’s” has gone from 26 percent in August, to 27 percent now.

We are down to the hardened group, an educated and solid bunch of people who use common sense, and they are not going to take the forced vaccination.

In quantifiable terms, the increased pressure to force the jab into the arms of the American workforce has now crossed into what is called “the law of diminishing returns.”  More government pressure is not going to yield the previous level of compliance.   Instead, it will build a dangerous level of resentment.  This threshold crossed is also quantifiable in the 4.3 million Americans who quit working (242,000 of them in August alone).

There are 205 million legally eligible U.S. workers between 15 and 74-years-old (census figures) with a workforce participation rate of 61% (BLS figures) which would equal 125 million legally eligible workers.   However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the number of working Americans at 161 million workers (BLS figures).  The majority of the difference between the two figures are most likely illegal alien workers (yeah, lots of them).

Approximately 40 percent of the eligible population are not working.  Some people are single family income (wives or husbands who don’t work), and some are just people who choose not to work, cannot work or have not yet started to work (college etc).  With somewhere between 125 million and 161 million workers doing the jobs that keep the country functioning, there are also approximately 10 million unfilled job openings.

According to the most recent statement from Joe Biden on October 14th: “We’re down to 66 million — it’s still an unacceptably high number — of unvaccinated people from almost 100 million in July.”  Approximately 60 million of those are within the current U.S. workforce.

If we split the difference (census -vs- BLS) and take the mid-point at 140 million workers, then 60 million workers refusing the vaccine mandate represents about 40 percent of the entire population of eligible workers.  Put another way, in the best case scenario, if 60 million people quit working or were fired, the national unemployment rate would be at least 35% !

What we call the United States doesn’t function with 35% unemployment; systems of commerce start to collapse, then government, then civil society.

The U.S. economy is currently functioning with 5% unemployment and 10 million unfilled jobs.

Just imagine the economic impact of 35% unemployment and 70 million unfilled jobs.

Keep in mind, the vast majority of those 60 million jobs are the productive workforce that keep the entire machine of the U.S. functioning.

This is the workforce that keeps the goods moving, the lights on, garbage picked up, streets safe, shelves stocked, stuff fixed and facilitates everything that makes the entire system of society function.

It is the force of this crew or hard core, dirty fingernail, no-nonsense workers that is pushing those federal contractor companies to contact the administration and tell them this mandate is not going to work for them.

If Main Street companies have to choose between losing their ability to contract with the federal government, or losing the most critical part of their U.S. workforce, well, they likely cannot comply with Biden’s mandate.

There is no way for government or private industry to function with tens of millions of Americans in the domestic workforce getting forcibly removed for refusing the vaccine.

Pontificating leftists and academics, without a bit of sense for what actually happens in the Main Street economy, have no concept of what it looks like if ten million people quit or are fired from working next month…. let alone five times that many.

The power of the American workforce is in the scale of dependency each person brings to the system when they are united. It might seem like a few thousand here/there, because that’s the way the media are framing it. However, if you add up all those few thousands together, you end up with millions.

As we previously outlined, this is not about vaccines per se’, this is more about a slippery slope of having the government dictate how you can live your life and earn a living.

If the federal government can force us to have a medical procedure, and then carry documentation of that procedure in order to work… why can’t they force us to get a small electronic implant of our identification, which would coincidentally include your medical authorizations for work?

It’s just a metal detector….

it’s just taking off your shoes…

it’s just wearing a mask….

it’s just a vaccination…..

it’s just a COVID passport…

it’s always, “just”.

The federal government is attempting to set up a federal work authorization standard for private businesses.  Non-compliance means you cannot work, or you lose your existing job if your employer goes along with the government demand. THAT alone should alarm everyone.

There is a particularly enraging irony in that Joe Biden’s federal DOJ and Dept of Labor do not enforce employment eligibility authorization for illegal aliens based on legal status, while at the same time the Biden Dept. of Labor is putting OSHA in charge of a federal policy that will enforce vaccination requirements.

All of the federal exemptions essentially undermine the “national health emergency” argument, because if there really was such a public health emergency, there would be no exemptions at all.   The application of the executive order undermines the actual cornerstone of the executive order itself.   It cannot withstand scrutiny and hopefully the court will see through it.

In the interim, as the freedom coalition digs in to mount a patriotic challenge, the authoritarian attempt of the federal government, the rebellious alliance is hitting back in unique ways as noted by the airline pilots, air traffic controllers, firefighters and police.  All groups holding a significant military service record.  As noted, last weekend American Airlines was forced to cancel 1,700 flights due to staffing issues.

The blue-collar effort to bolster the resistance by these groups does not have to be too massive to have an impact.  Remember, almost all of these leftists and elite minded communists who now operate as Democrats have no capacity for self-sufficiency.   If the working class stops picking up their trash; stops mowing their lawns, shopping for them, doing their cleaning and essentially facilitating their lives, this entire group of scholastic-minded knuckleheads cannot function.

From a commonsense and logistical perspective, regardless of the federal outlook, there’s no way they can pull it off.  We are the quiet, and according to those who look down their noses – the “invisible” unwashed masses.  However, when it comes to keeping the gears turning, we are the majority.

We keep their shit working and just want to be left alone.

I do not know if the video from the Proctor and Gamble workers is an accurate reflection of how workers for P&G feel.  However, I do know the sentiment conveyed within that video is very accurate.   Only a fool would underestimate the nature of men backed into a corner and reluctantly forced to accept their new outlook; men and women with nothing left to lose…

Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Nov 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 4, 2021 | Sundance | 490 Comments

The U.S. Department of Labor (DoL), Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), has finalized the formal process to require employers of more than 100 employees to mandate vaccination as a requirement for employment in the United States.

[OSHA Summary Here] – [OSHA Details pdf HERE]

[Federal Register Notice HERE]

While the OSHA rules appear to have been finalized, the official publication in the Federal Register is scheduled to take place tomorrow November 5, 2021.

The OSHA Rule is being authorized by the Dept of Labor under an Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS).  The ETS will go into effect on December 5, 2021, with the final vaccinations and testing in place by January 4, 2022 (sixty days after registration).  There is NO END DATE to the rule.  I repeat, despite the rule being filed under an emergency “temporary” standard, there is no end date for the rule to expire or be reauthorized.

As published, the rule affects employers with 100 or more employees that are not (1) federal contractors or (2) health care facilities (those are subject to different regulations).

Employees who work from home; and/or have no contact with other employees; and/or have contact with customers; and/or work outside; are exempted from the OSHA requirements as published.

♦ Employers have two options: (1) Mandatory vaccinations with exemptions for disabilities and sincere religious beliefs; or (2) Weekly testing and face coverings for unvaccinated employees. (If unvaccinated employees work outside, they do not have to mask).

That means if you are not vaccinated, for whatever reason, you must wear a mask in the workplace and visibly identify yourself as unvaccinated.

♦ Employers are required to:

(1) Create and implement a Covid safety plan.

(2) Collect proof of vaccination for employees. Employers cannot just ask employees – they need to see their official vaccination record or other evidence.

(3) Provide paid time off for vaccinations and side effects.  Employers must provide four hours of paid time off for each employee to be vaccinated and also need to provide a reasonable amount of time off if someone has a bad reaction.

(4) Continue with quarantine policies as set forth by the CDC. Anyone who tests positive must quarantine, even if they are fully vaccinated.

(5) Any employee who is hospitalized or dead due to the vaccine must be reported to OSHA and registered as a workplace injury/death.

(6) Employers must be prepared to be audited and prove vaccination records, if asked.

.

[OSHA Summary Here]

[OSHA Details HERE] –

[Federal Register Notice HERE]

Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Nov 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong