Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
Watch the latest interview above or click here.
Lots of people talk about an inflation driven recession. Essentially, that’s a total economic contraction in the value of goods and services produced, sold and purchased, due to rising prices. However, as CTH has been pointing out for more than six months, if you subtract the federal COVID infusion money from the overall economy, we have been in a contracting demand economy for almost nine months.
A negative GDP outcome is quite possible, perhaps likely, when the first quarter GDP figures are released on the last Friday of this month. The most recent sales and economic data shows that U.S. consumers are prioritizing spending and high priced durable good sales are negative.
Now, Fannie Mae is delivering a rather stunning shift in their economic forecast. In addition to projecting a recession for 2023, these revised home purchase figures are remarkable:
...”We have downgraded our total home sales forecast for 2022 to a decline of 7.4 percent (previously a 4.1 percent decline) followed by a decrease of 9.7 percent in 2023 (previously a 2.7 percent decline).” (link)
That is a very significant change in home sales forecast to the negative position.
We already have serious energy inflation to contend with and low wage growth. We already know a third inflation wave on highly consumable goods is coming this summer, likely around 30% or more in food prices at the grocery store.
The professional forecasts are always tilted toward the positive for this administration, so this new statement by Fannie Mae should be considered accordingly. Remember, Boy Scouts motto.
When CDC Director Rochelle Wolensky talks, she is speaking to a diminishing audience of branch covidians. As the official guidance from the U.S. medical community (NIH, FDA, CDC) shifts drastically, more people are awake to the political motives behind the rules. This reality is now becoming a serious issue for them.
Earlier today, CDC Director Wolensky spoke to several stenographers about the changes. On ABC she stated there was no recommendation to “test out” of quarantine after five days, because the CDC is now admitting the PCR tests are useless. As she stated, “PCR tests can stay positive for up to 12 weeks” after the infection. This is an issue now, because the politics of the quarantine has changed. WATCH:
In another interview the CNN stenographer, now sensing the dam collapsing, asked directly if this shift in quarantine guidance was due to the “business” or economic impacts of COVID as it relates to the ever-shifting science.
What we are watching, in real time, is a considerable shift amid those who are attempting to retain the false premise behind the COVID narrative. People are not jumping into the booster narrative, because the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated is now nullified by the statements and guidance of the officials themselves.
It is going to get more difficult for the regime to keep pushing COVID-19 mandates, while they have to keep justifying their contradictory positions. The contradictions themselves do not make sense when contrast against the science, especially when the scientific outcomes undermine the original premise of the mandates, rules and guidance.
This is why it has become even more important, in this destabilized public opinion phase, for opposing scientific views to be suppressed.
The institutional government healthcare system is trying to retain credibility. However, the dam is breaking, and they have run out of fingers and toes to plug the gaps. Those in the executive suites have shifted their efforts to securing scuba gear, as indicated by Biden’s “there is no federal government solution”….
Continuing with the dam analogy, further credibility collapses will likely become exponential if the praetorian guard media start asking the obvious questions about where all this water is coming from, and we move into the phase of rapid sunlight.
Dr. Robert W. Malone MD, MS, has been permanently suspended from the Twitter platform for violating acceptable speech rules related to COVID-19.
The larger issue is not related to Twitter’s individual and arbitrary rules, but rather all Americans should consider that communication about COVID-19 is being restricted by various compliance officers operating on behalf of the state. We are living in a communication era of Orwellian proportions.
We are also entering into a very dangerous phase in our national history. People are eyes-wide-open to the vaccine propaganda, messaging and inherent conflicts from officials in the institutions of government and health.
While it may sound like a good outcome to have massive numbers of Americans awaken to their new reality, and that outcome results in a complete collapse in confidence with government officials, the downstream consequence of such severe destabilization comes at a much higher cost than the virus itself.
Dr. Malone can be found on the Substack platform where he shares the following message:
We all knew it would happen eventually.
Today it did. Over a half million followers gone in a blink of an eye. That means I must have been on the mark, so to speak. Over the target. It also means we lost a critical component in our fight to stop these vaccines being mandated for children and to stop the corruption in our governments, as well as the medical-industrial complex and pharmaceutical industries.
So, please spread the word – share this on your own twitter feed or whatever social media venue you wish.
My Substack sign-up is: AVAILABLE HERE
Substack is absolutely the best way to see my writings. I appreciate everyone’s support in signing up for my newsletter. It truly matters to me.
Other social media links are:
My website is:
Traditionally, the telegram account with my handle (rwmalonemd) is run by a someone else – it is not my own account. They have done a good job auto-posting from twitter and I have personally thanked the person who does this (I only have one of me and getting scientific knowledge and info pushed out is critical in this battle). It has 100,000 followers. Not sure how that will work now…
Tomorrow I am on the Joe Rogan show (I don’t know when it will air, probably tomorrow maybe)? Please spread the word that you can see me there next!
Marty Makary, MD, MPH, remains one of the most prominent critically thinking public health experts during this pandemic. A staunch supporter of COVID-19 vaccination, Dr. Makary, a prominent surgeon and editor-in-chief of MedPage Today, also raised the importance of balanced, more unbiased scientific reasoning, often making declarations that haven’t been popular with the dominant government and industry-driven pandemic narrative. For example, Makary has argued that a proper risk-benefit analysis should accompany any mass COVID-19-focused pediatric vaccination drive. Now the surgeon and researcher affiliated with Johns Hopkins University shares with the world concerns about indiscriminate booster campaigns—raising the specter of possible harm associated with such a one-size-fits-all approach embraced by the current U.S. executive branch and its scientific advisors.
While the government, backed by industry and all-too-willing academician advisors (undoubtedly hopeful of more public grants and other financial benefits) continue to promote the full acceleration of mass booster programs, little to no mainstream discussion appeals to the negative side of the health-related ledger: what are the side effects of these vaccines? What about long-term risks? Of course, little is known about long-term health impacts because these products are so new. They have only been in use in the population for about a year. Often, it can take a handful of years before the true health risks associated with medicinal products materialize. But perhaps a glimmer of awareness shines through with growing chatter about vaccination risks alongside all-encompassing benefits.
Recently Makary shared a message from Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH, who introduces a new paper in Nature uncovering differing adverse event risk factors by vaccine product.
Led by corresponding author Julia Hippisley-Cox from the University of Oxford, the study shares how the risks for conditions such as myocarditis and pericarditis are very real, despite the initial clinical trial results.Subscribe to the Trialsitenews “COVID-19” ChannelNo spam – we promise
The self-controlled case series study targeting vaccinated people 16 years of age and up in England analyzed cardiovascular adverse event incidence by vaccine product, including AstraZeneca/Oxford (ChAdOx1), Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), and Moderna (mRNA-1273).
The study authors discovered that the risks for myocarditis increase under the following conditions:
∙ After the first dose of AstraZeneca and Pfizer
∙ Subsequent to the second dose of Moderna over the 1–28-day post jab period
∙ Following a SARS-CoV-2 positive test
More specifically, according to this real-world data, myocarditis risks increases by the following:
|Vaccine||Extra myocarditis event per/1 million||Stats|
|AstraZeneca||2||95% confidence interval (CI) 0, 3|
|Pfizer-BioNTech||1||95% CI 0, 2|
|Moderna||6||95% CI 2, 8|
The authors reported these outcomes for 28 days following a first dose and an extra ten (95% CI 7, 11) myocarditis events per 1 million vaccinated in the 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273. In comparison, they find an extra 40 (95% CI 38, 41) such cardiovascular events per million 28 days after preliminary test indicating risks associated with COVID-19 itself. Indicating that overall vaccination could be less risky—but that precludes important subgroup analysis.
The UK-led study extends a growing study literature investigating COVID-19 vaccine-associated adverse events. In this case, significantly so, based on an analysis of 38 million adults in England receiving both the mRNA-based vaccines as well as the AstraZeneca product (adenovirus-mediated vaccine).
The study team discovered heightened myocarditis risk in subgroups (e.g., males under 40) as well as temporal association indicating risks after both the first and second jabs within a seven-day period post-vaccination.
The authors declared, “The excess risk was observed in men and women but was only consistently observed following both mRNA vaccines in those younger than 40 years.” The authors qualify that fewer people under 40 received the mRNA-based vaccines however other national health authorities have already acted, unbeknownst to most of the North American public.
Dozens of national health authorities have established parameters for vaccination during this unprecedented mass vaccination program. TrialSite provides some examples below that rarely make it into mainstream media in places like the United States, Canada, and even England.
Due to heightened risks associated with mRNA-1273 for myocarditis and other events, numerous counties have placed either temporary or permanent restrictions on the use of this novel COVID-19 vaccine product.
TrialSite has reported how all the Scandinavian nations (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and even Iceland) have imposed limitations on access to this vaccine. In summary, health authorities in these nations have declared that the risks of cardiovascular-related events are too high for younger people, especially young males. TrialSite notes Moderna’s share price has been on a downward trend as reported by Yahoo Finance. Could traders have known something many others don’t?
Numerous nations placed holds, some permanent, some temporary, on this vaccine as TrialSite has reported ongoing. Even Wikipedia is updated on the “Suspensions” associated with this vaccine that had so much promise (more economical, easier to distribute, etc.).
This is not to say that this vaccine hasn’t helped in the war against COVID-19 but the health-related costs associated with the novel product are real. Numerous nations in Europe, not to mention South Africa, Canada, Indonesia, and Australia placed suspensions at one point or another due to safety concerns such as blood clotting and low blood platelets. Still authorized by Europe and other authorities, many nations however transition from a one-size-fits-all approach to a more tailored, risk-based approach to vaccination. Remember, the USA completely stopped the AstraZeneca vaccine program.
Back to the mRNA-based vaccines and the most recent Oxford-led study in the preprint (this means it shouldn’t be used for making definitive claims). Males under 40 years of age face a higher risk with the vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Modena than actual COVID-19 infection, thus raising concern that a rigid, one-size-fits-all approach to COVID-19 vaccination should be supplanted with a more tailored, precise approach. After all, that follows the trend in the science of medicine anyway.
Dr. Prasad discussed the limitations of the former peer-reviewed (Nature) study as the exact number of vaccines were known while the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections wasn’t certain at all. But with known limitations, he referred to the Oxford-led authors’ updated point of view uploaded to medRxiv for further clarification.
In this update, the authors found a heightened risk of myocarditis following one to 28 days after the third booster dose of Pfizer’s BNT162b2 (IRR 2.02, 95%CI 1.40, 2.91). Not surprisingly, the risks were highest in males aged 40 and under with all vaccines with the various observations in the updated study:
Myocarditis AE events per million est. 1-28 days post first dose
|Vaccine||Additional event per/1 million||Stats|
|Pfizer-BioNTech||3||95%CI 1, 5|
|Moderna||12||95% CI 1,17|
What about additional adverse events post the second dose?
|Vaccine||Additional event per/1 million||Stats|
|AstraZeneca||14||95%CI 8, 17|
|Pfizer-BioNTech||12||95%CI 1, 7|
|Moderna||101||95%CI 95, 104|
Pfizer boost vs. COVID-19 infection
|Vaccine||Additional event per/1 million||Stats|
|Pfizer||13||95%CI 7, 15|
|COVID-19 Infection||7||95%CI 2, 11|
The authors report that while the risk of myocarditis is very real for those sick with SARS-CoV-2, the risk-benefit analysis contributes to a reasonable position against vaccination of people 40 and under. But why aren’t governing health authorities discussing this science? Dr. Prasad asks publicly why health authorities aren’t and associated political representatives are re-adjusting the “risk radar?”
Medicine is nuanced as Prasad declares and in his point of view “Profit, greed, and power…not so much!!” TrialSite suggests some truth in this argument—the evidence of some forms of regulatory capture is present during this pandemic. TrialSite has accumulated a vast trove of study results, news stories, and various analyses pointing in this direction. Moreover, the level and type of information suppression indicate some forms of collusion between government, industry, and the largest media corporations.
Industry received considerable incentive to develop products and should be held accountable when public finances are involved. Yet they also take on enormous risks—the drug development process is complex, time-consuming, and financially risky. TrialSite suggests for those that seek reform to better understand deeper, more systemic forces are at play during the pandemic including intense investor demand for high returns.
The pharmaceutical industry shouldn’t be unilaterally vilified but also must be held accountable as should public health authorities and government embrace the comprehensive, unfolding science—not just a subset of data or evidence to back a convenient narrative.
TrialSite continually educates that the pharma companies operate in a system that economically and financially punishes executives and their talent for failing to shrewdly exploit financially any rich, fertile profit conditions such as COVID-19.
On the other hand, a balance can be achieved if regulatory and executive branch agencies behave and act independently with the public interest as a goal. Hence the risks and dangers of regulatory capture. But what happens when government and industry get too cozy? Known by some as “Crony Capitalism,” this involves a move away from free-market ideals mitigated by independent and objective regulators to an intertwined dynamic, vulnerable to bias and even corrupted practices.
The pandemic exposed system vulnerability in pandemic response, including a tendency or impulse for some Western governments and health authorities to lean toward authoritarian-centric responses while not only ensuring windfall profits for the winners at the expense of at least some public health considerations. An example would be the ongoing imposition of PREP Act liability shields despite widespread mandates. What happened to consumer rights activism?
Some could argue the growing polarization in places like America only worsened the situation, conflating politics with the economy and public health. However, no orthodoxy, regardless of paradigm or hypothesis, will hasten the demise of the pathogen other than an objective, science- and evidence-driven approach factoring in real-world unfolding and ongoing intelligence. Suppression of data that contradicts or raises questions about the dominant narrative only worsens social and political divides leading to new forms of crises that governments seek to manage, most of the time unsuccessfully.
If you listen to most champagne socialists, they will tell you they believe airline travel has become too affordable and just about anyone is able to fly now. For a few decades this has been a source of consternation amid the Democrat cocktail party class, whenever the subject is approached.
It stands to reason the people behind Joe Biden will eventually concede the issue of mandatory vaccine passports for domestic air travel to the administrative state and their donors amid the Branch Covidians. They’re in the same group circles where Anthony Fauci is venerated and appreciated.
However, I doubt it will happen until after the U.S. universal passport system, the ¹vaccination ID, is put into place – because currently, the airline companies would stand to lose too much revenue.
WASHINGTON DC – President Biden said Tuesday he would impose a mandate that Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19 to travel domestically if his medical team recommends it.
When asked when he would make a decision on domestic travel vaccine requirements while out for a walk in Rehoboth Beach, Del., Biden told reporters, “when I get a recommendation from the medical team.”
The idea of mandating coronavirus vaccines for domestic travel has been bouncing around the administration for months, and the emergence of the omicron variant caused the White House to revisit questions over whether to impose it. (read more)
¹New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago currently have the vaccination id requirement announced for their metropolitan areas. The enforcement systems begin in the next few weeks. Once three separate systems are in place, others will join…. that sets up phase two.
Vaccine Passport phase-2 will be triggered by the various regions having differing requirements for proof of vaccination. They will then request a universal system from the federal government. That request, accompanied by a narrative from the media, will trigger DC to construct the universal ID, and the federal registration system will follow.
The World Bank found that 97 million people worldwide fell into poverty as a direct impact of the 2020 pandemic, and many live on only $2 per day. The World Bank defines COVID-induced poverty as “poverty calculated as the difference in poverty in a world with and without the pandemic.”
The World Bank estimates that extreme poverty will decline 2.9% in 2021, which is almost identical to annual declines in poverty recorded before the pandemic. However, the organization admitted that lockdown measures, rather than the actual coronavirus, are to blame for financially decimating 97 million people:
“When the pandemic broke out, many developing countries responded in ways similar to high-income countries; by locking down major parts of their economy. These lockdowns decreased incomes and employment, causing an increase in extreme poverty. In 2021, the appetite for lockdowns has been smaller. This may have limited the economic consequences at the cost of increased COVID cases and COVID-related deaths.”
Unfortunately, the appetite for lockdowns has continued into 2021 in many parts of the world. Now, the damage caused by ongoing lockdowns cannot be undone.
A microchip implanted under the skin that relays your private information to the government seems like a dystopian nightmare. The South China Morning Post announced that a company in Sweden has created the technology and is ready to distribute it to governments worldwide. Around 6,000 people in Sweden have already willing had the “wearable technology” inserted in their hands. It is alleged that “those with microchip implants have stopped carrying vaccine passports, keys, ID cards, and even train tickets with them, thanks to radio frequency identification technology, a wireless system comprising tags and readers.”
I prefer my privacy and autonomy from the government over the convenience of leaving my car keys at home. Once power is handed (no pun intended) over to the government, they will never relinquish it without revolution.
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is finally withdrawing the PCR test for COVID for it is seriously flawed and is incapable of distinguishing between the COVID and influenza viruses. I have stated that I was tested 5 times in 2020 and all were negative only to have two doctors, including the head of pulmonary at the hospital, inform me that they believed I had COVID despite the tests because they were “invalid” and that was back then. Social Media was blocking any discussion about that calling it conspiracy theory and misinformation. This agenda to terrorize the public for political gain has been at the heart of the abuse of politics and media intruding into the medical field. Doctors who have gone along with this terror campaign are a disgrace to their field.
The CDC is withdrawing the COVID PCR Test and the media is not making this front page. The withdraw of the COVID PCR test as valid for detecting and identifying SARS-CoV-2 is critical for all the restrictions and lockdowns. It appears that the collapse in the approval ratings for BIDEN has sent a shock wave through the Democrats as they see their own demise on the horizon. They are now back-peddling in hopes of surviving the 2022 elections. The CDC has stated on its website:
“After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.”
The CDC has finally admitted that the PCR test cannot even differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. As I was told personally that the test was invalid, the politics in the USA realizes that this is not going well and they need to shift gears or all be thrown out in the next election.
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