Tag Archives: Destructive interference

Nov 12 2018

China’s First AI TV Anchor


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Nov 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

China has scored a real first and it may be an answer to the FAKE NEWS problem in the United States and Europe. A TV anchor has joined a Chinese news agency, but with a twist: he isn’t human. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency has launched an artificial intelligence (AI), anchor. “English AI Anchor” debuted Thursday at the World Internet Conference in the country’s eastern Zhejiang Province.

Modeled on the agency’s Zhang Zhao presenter, the new anchor learns from live videos and is able to work 24 hours a day, reporting via social media and on the Xinhua website. ”‘He’ learns from live broadcasting videos by himself and can read texts as naturally as a professional news anchor,” the company said in an online statement.

Now if we can do this for politicians and judges, it will end war and injustice!!!!

We were granted our Business license in China and they are quite thrilled to have an AI computer that writes analytical reports on Chinese equities, markets, and currencies. We too are thrilled to have the largest forecasting operation on the Chinese markets that is completely computer driven without human biases.

Oct 26 2018

Tectonic Plate Splits in Two Raising Risks for West Coast


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

San Andreas Fault in California Can Be Observed from the Sky

Recent studies have revealed that the massive earthquake which stuck Mexico actually split a tectonic plate in two. This has done more than just shaken the ground. It has also shaken up the geologist community for this may even introduce a greater risk to California. That quake took place on September 7th, 2017, and was a magnitude 8.2 earthquake that struck southern Mexico. Earthquakes are common events around the world in different degrees. However, this powerful event wasn’t any run-of-the-mill tremor. It actually split the tectonic plate itself.

Normally, earthquakes take place where two tectonic plates meet. They constantly move around Earth’s surface, either grinding side by side, or they will crumble which ends up creating mountain ranges. They can also descend under another plate in what is referred to as a subduction zone. However, this one was a huge intraslab quake which resulted in breaking a plate in two. This means there is now a greater risk for more earthquakes along this fault line.

Oct 16 2018

New Government Report Show US Weapons can be “Easily Hacked”


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have warned before that someone can hack into your car, take control, and actually assassinate you while making it look like an accident. Even Wired Magazine has come out warning about the flaws that allow your car to be hacked.  Michael Hastings was the journalist exposing the surveillance state. Hastings wrote about the investigation of reporters by the U.S. Department of Justice back in 2013. He said that the restrictions on the freedom of the press by the Obama administration were a “war” on journalism. He wrote his last story before he died in what may have been a cyber attack. Someone was able to control his car remotely and drove it into a tree at top speed. His last story was entitled: “Why Democrats Love to Spy On Americans”, published by BuzzFeed on June 7, 2013. Any journalist who goes for the truth about the Deep States seems to end up dead.

Hastings Michael - 2Hastings died in a fiery high-speed automobile crash on June 18, 2013, in Los Angeles. Today, cars connected with GPS can actually be hacked. It is possible to take control of your car, right down to the steering wheel, remotely. WIRED Magazine has proven this ability, which many others have confirmed. The likelihood that Hastings was killed remotely in an auto cyber attack is extremely high. He was on the Snowden affair and was the reason Snowden had to leave the country and turn everything over to the Guardian in London.

A new government report now reveals that it took hackers just one hour to gain access to a high-tech weapon system. Hackers who can take control of your car, could also take control of jets and attack Washington itself. The Pentagon’s own report shows how unsophisticated they are. They never bothered to even change the default password on “multiple” defense systems. This report confirms that a cyber attack can be launched and the systems can be “easily hacked” using just “basic tools” that a teenager nerd would figure out in less than an hour.

 

How were the Democrat’s emails hacked? It did not take a sophisticated Russian hacking system. Someone simply sent a fake email to reset their password and they gained access to the Democratic Emails. We all know that the brightest people are NEVER found in government. A-students work for C-students who create companies and are often drop-outs, and B-students go to the government because they cannot qualify for a real job.

Oct 10 2018

Hurricane Michael


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

I want to thank everyone for sending in emails of concern with regard to Hurricane Michael. It is not likely to hit our area. However, the last bad hurricane to hit Tampa was in 1921 which was a Category 4 with 140 mph winds. It was an unusual storm like Michael which began in the Carribean during mid-October rather than in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa and normal. The storms that start in the Atlantic typically will not impact the West Coast. The storms that are most dangerous to this area are those that begin in the Carribean like Michael.

1921 TAMPA Category 4

 

The previous major hurricane was September 23–25, 1848 Category 4, which also formed in the Gulf of Mexico. There was also a lessor one in 1946 which was a Category 2, which also formed in the Gulf. The worst to hit the West Coast was Hurricane Charley in 2004 which hit as a Category 4. This one was an Atlantic storm which entered the Gulf and then turned right coming up the West Coast. The computer projections show a major one due in Tampa of a Category 4 to 5 probably in 2042-2043. That does not mean we will not see others of lesser intensity between 2018 and 2042/43.

Oct 9 2018

Hurricane Michael Update: Current 85mph Rapid Intensification Predicted


As anticipate Hurricane Michael is showing signs of continued strength with each update. Current wind speed 85mph. Rapid intensification is predicted. Current forecast is for a Category 3 (115+ mph) storm at landfall.  If you are in the path you do not have much time to prepare. This storm is gaining forward speed as it strengthens.

[Hurricane Center] At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. (read more)

For those in the cone of uncertainty, Florida Governor Rick Scott has provided an extensive update on state preparations – SEE HERE – More information is available on the Florida Emergency Website – SEE HERE.

Due to the speed of this storm, and the rapid intensification strength, all interests in the coastal area should immediate rush to completion their hurricane and storm preparation plans.  Tuesday is likely the only day to prepare your property and personal effects.  Do not delay.  Pay attention to the warnings and guidance of local officials.

If you live in an evacuation zone be prepared to respond as soon as instructed.  Take this storm seriously.  Slight variations in the storm’s path can create major changes within any impacted region.

Oct 8 2018

Head’s Up – Tropical Storm Michael Forecast To Become Hurricane…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 7, 2018 by

Coastal residents of Northern Florida (Panhandle), Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep an eye on tropical storm Michael.  The storm is anticipated to become a Hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico sometime late Tuesday/Wednesday.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. (More from hurricane center)

Sep 26 2018

Katla Building to a Major Event?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Sep 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

They claim that all the world’s nations combined pumped nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to new international calculations on global emissions published in the journal Nature Climate Change. That is 32 kilotons per day when one volcano Katla, which is a huge hidden volcano 650 feet beneath the ice cap in Iceland, is emitting 20 kilotons of C02 every day. There are only two volcanoes worldwide that are known to emit more CO2, and now scientists are concerned that Katla may be headed toward a major eruption. Obviously, the UN should be imposing a tax on Iceland for all this added Co2.

Katla has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1100 years. There were eruptions which have been documented in the years 920 and 1612, and from 1821 to 1823. These latter eruptions in the 19th century helped to cool the planet contributing to the mini ice age at that time. The last eruption that actually broke through the ice cap occurred in 1918. There have been subglacial flood events in 1955, 1999 and 2010-2011 that melted ice but it did not break the surface. These events do create flooding as the ice melts. Volcanic activity produced two eruptions in 2010 at Eyjafjallajokull, on March 20 and April 14. The second eruption created the giant ash cloud over Europe which diverted air traffic.

The 1918 ash plume was documented to have reached heights of 14 km. That event looked like a mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb. It is hard to draw a conclusive model since the majority of eruptions only melt ice beneath the surface. The best we can do with an approximation for the events that break through the surface puts it in 2020-2021 for the next ideal event. But the data series is not definitive on this event. It does appear that Katla has become active again since 2010 and is building to a climax. This could also be an event that contributes to global cooling as we saw during the 19th century

Sep 24 2018

The most VALUABLE lesson we can teach our children is HOW TO THINK – not what to think


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Sep 24, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Good day Sir; How in the world do you do it? It is one thing to develop Socrates and assist clients, but yet another to keep up with and tie in the global events to the waves. I know you don’t sleep much Martin but I have not been dressed in a week and still I miss a couple things. If I’m getting this right various frequencies of currencies and prices are fixed and varied then Socrates somehow sorts all the waves, throws in a time factor that results in a cross of those market waves. Socrates seems to he can smell when the buyers reach that point of re-entry on a bear market or sellers during a bull. It’s extraordinary. It now seems crazy to think I will ever catch up to you without field experience. 4 years of reading/studying/back-checking your models/research/data is a bugger. Then you sens me back to the drawing board about once a month about another factor of the marketplace which didn’t occur to me. So off I go again into the unknown forest not knowing when I will reappear. I am pissed with myself that I am not yet comfortable. This quarter has been good because of a change in method that better resembles the market actions. Socrates is making sense more each day yet still I find pieces that need to fit somewhere. This is the coolest thing I’ve ever done. Working within the walls of a seemingly structured global marketplace I find it is handy to not only be a gentleman study but also know how to think like a thief, a murderer, a snake oil salesman, and a pick-pocket like Browder. Apologies for wasting your time. Lessons of simplicity… My father drew a small circle on the back of an envelope representing my entire knowledge base. I was maybe 15 or 16 so a small circle was appropriate. He said what is unknown to me lies on the outer perimeter of that circle.
The more I learn the larger the circle becomes, but correspondingly the outside perimeter of the unknown increases.

That’s my beef.

Thank you for opening the biggest can of worms.

RH

REPLY: Life is a journey that we are sent here to learn. You may not realize it, but you are what is truly a “genius” which most people do not understand what it even is. Indeed, some believe if we screw up we are sent back here again to try to get it right. Some believe Buda prayed that he could reach Nirvana and not have to come back here again. It is an interesting perspective on the purpose of life. But what is interesting is that I can agree that this is a journey about gaining knowledge. That is what keeps us both interested and young. If you have no interest in exploring, then you sit in your diapers in old age watching mindless TV shows waiting to be called home. Life ends, in my opinion, when there is nothing left to learn.

 

As long as you are on a journey toward enlightenment all is good. What else would you have in life that feeds your mind with the only food it really needs – curiosity and imagination. I did not know Einstein. But I knew a professor at Princeton where he taught who did know him. He shocked me one day and said I reminded him of Einstein. I was surprised and said I was not in his league or field. He told me I was. He explained that the common threat was not the subject matter by my curiosity. He told me that curiosity was the fuel for all advancement. As long as you are curious and have imagination, and try to figure out what makes things tick, that is the path to enlightenment.

There have been studies on what people call “genius” and they have revealed that all such people do poorly in school and tend to get in trouble. In the case of Einstein, his Munich schoolmaster wrote in Albert Einstein’s school report, “He will never amount to anything”, back in 1895. People who explore and test things rather than just regurgitate what they were taught are on the path to enlightenment. We will never advance as a society without exploring how things work. If you are curious and have an imagination, then you will explore new solutions. If you just memorize what the teacher says and get straight As, you will be a follower rather than a leader.

The school records of the young Winston Churchill revealed the future war leader was a “naughty child” the teachers said would amount to also to nothing. We have to understand what is really “genius” in order to nurture that in our children. It has NOTHING to do with the level of intelligence of knowing everything like some encyclopedia. Genius is all about dynamic thinking and methodology – seeing the interconnections. I have written before, if you read this blog, chances are you too fall into the category of being a “genius” for your thinking process demonstrates you are on a quest for knowledge.

The difference between a true genius and the majority of the world is that they are NOT content to walk around with blinders on like a horse pulling a carriage. The majority only can see directly what is in front of them. This is why A students work for C students, and B students work for the government. William Manchester wrote in the Last Lion on the life of Winston Churchill:

“Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile on children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. In­telligent but uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments with dispatch and to perfection. The creative child, on the other hand, is manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive. He is likely to harass the teacher. He is regarded as wild, naughty, silly, unde­pendable, lacking in seriousness or even promise.“

Video Player

00:00
01:22

So it is not that a genius knows everything, it is a person who seeks knowledge and thinks dynamically. You must avoid trying to reduce the world to a single cause and effect. It is always far more complex than just that. Look at all the people who dropped out of some university yet started major companies like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg just to mention a few (see the list of top 10). The most VALUABLE lesson we can teach our children is HOW TO THINK – not what to think.

Why have I poured so much time into programming Socrates? First, it was never a project I could ever give to another to even attempt to code. As far as its model analysis, I have been the only programmer. It takes EXPERIENCE in the subject matter to write such a program. Everyone else codes the delivery system. This is why there is nothing else like it. You had to be a TRADER and a PROGRAMMER to even tackle such an endeavor. My objective was to clone myself. There are so many variables that are involved it quickly exceeds the capacity of any human to keep track of some much in their head and at the tip of their fingers instantly. This is not about writing some algorithm to produce a mean and lean trading machine. Those are one-dimensional systems that will never adapt to changes.

For example, everyone rushed into AI to create robot trading. It was assumed the UBS’s push into AI lead to “robots invading the trading world.” Then one year later, UBS was reported to be shutting down its robo-trading system said in a statement that, while it is “satisfied” with the commercial progress of the service, “at this time we believe the near-term potential is limited and have therefore decided to close our digital-only offering in the UK”.

You cannot hire programmers to write a trading platform because they can only plug is formulas that are one-dimensional and have a system that will be consistent over time. Long-Term Capital Management crashed after used the Black–Scholes model for which they won the Nobel Prize, yet it failed with volatility and time. They never saw the wave coming at them from currencies which swamped all markets and force funds to sell assets around the world to cover losses in Russia.

Even high-frequency trading cannot see the big waves coming from global events and they will shut down as soon as volatility rises. The biggest danger with such systems is they become trapped and cannot escape a financial tidal wave they are incapable of forecasting. It is like just watching gold and nothing else. Everything is connected and then to figure such a system out requires historical data. I have stated plenty of times, I have probably spent far more than a $100 million in today’s terms to collect a database to even train a system.

I am always still improving Socrates. As I said, it is my clone. Every trick of the trade I have learned I taught the system and I and always still learning so I had to write the code to allow Socrates to also learn as I have throughout life. The bottom line is rather simple. It does not make a mistake in forgetting to check something because it had a good night or some distracting argument. It is free of such human fralities we are all plagued with.

 

Sep 22 2018

Trying to Forecast Long-Term Technology Trends


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

Re-Posted Sep 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have a hard time envisioning this age of knowledge some claim is behind cryptocurrencies and others claim is behind robots that necessitate a guarantee welfare system. Do you give any credence to these type of forecasts of the long-term future?

BG

ANSWER: No. This idea that we advance to a higher state of knowledge is rather absurd. We evolve with technology, but it is not going to produce world peace. There was a German electrical engineer by the name of Charles Proteus Steinmetz who had made a dramatic forecast with the invention of electricity back in 1923. He said that by 2023, electricity would be doing all the hard work and people would not have to toil for more than four hours a day. Steinmetz also envisioned cities free of pollution and litter in a century’s time.

If we look at electricity, yes it is cleaner and would produce less pollution if you generated by solar or nuclear. He could not forecast in 1923 nuclear energy nor could he fathom the computer so we are not working less but can work even more from anywhere. The danger of trying to make long-term forecasts in technology is that the trend can be changed by a development in a parallel field. This is why in designing Socrates, I taught it how to analyze rather than create fixed rules. In this manner, it will evolve with technology. Who knows, perhaps they discover a way to get energy from Azuki beans that replaced everything.

Nobody can know the discoveries that await us long-term. Who knows, perhaps we can one day create black holes and appear on the other side of the universe. It may sound like complete fiction today no down as traveling under the sea did to people who read 20th Thousand Leagues under the Sea by Jules Verne (1828–1905)  in 1870.

It is best to just go with the flow. The markets pick up changes in technology. Just pay attention.

Sep 17 2018

Severe Flood Warnings For North Carolina – Several Towns Completely Cut-off, Wilmington and Jacksonville Surrounded by Floodwater….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 16, 2018 by

Several communities and towns within North Carolina have been completely cut-off by rising flood waters as a result of Hurricane Florence and the unprecedented amount of rain.  The cities of Wilmington and Jacksonville, NC, are surrounded by flooding.

Pay attention to all local officials, and heed all notices to evacuate based on the advice from local and state officials.  The threat is increasing in multiple regions throughout the state of North Carolina.  Evacuations are ongoing with all resources deployed to assist stranded residents.  FEMA, the national guard, the coast guard, and all state and federal resources are currently deployed for ongoing rescue efforts.

.

Florence has weakened to a tropical depression but forecasters warn the next few days could bring the most destructive round of flooding in North Carolina history. The National Hurricane Center says the effect is expected to be “catastrophic.”

NORTH CAROLINA – The city of Wilmington, North Carolina, has been completely cut off by floodwaters, and officials are asking for additional help from state law enforcement and the National Guard.

Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said Sunday that additional rainfall Saturday night made roads into the city impassable.

White said officials are planning for food and water to be flown to the county, although new distribution centers will have to be found because of all the rain in the northern part of the county.

Earlier Sunday, officials from the Cape Fear Public Utility Authority had said they were almost out of fuel for the water plant and might have to shut down. The utility later issued a release saying it had found additional fuel. (LINK)

.

.

.