Biden Tried to Hide the Failure of the US in Afghanistan


Armstrong Economics Blog/Great Reset Re-Posted Sep 2, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Biden put pressure on the President of Afghanistan not to tell the world that the Taliban were winning to create the “perception” that the Taliban weren’t winning, “whether it’s true or not.” A transcript of the phone call exposes the lies of the White House that they did not know what was happening. They knew, screwed it up, and then have lied about everything. This is an Administration all about lies. Biden then tells the nation that his withdrawal has been an “exceptional success” just before this leaked transcript emerges. He left even hundreds of journalists behind.

The Biden Administration is circumventing the FDA demanding booster shots and they have been on board with COVID passports to be administered by the World Health Organization funded by Gates and the Rockefeller Foundations.

This is what our computer, Socrates, has been forecasting. This is the collapse of the CONFIDENCE in government as we move into 2022. I have been warning that even gold does not rise with regard to inflation or the debt people keep preaching year after year. When the national debt hit $1 trillion, gold peaked at $875. The national debt is now approaching $29 trillion and under their theory that has cost so many people their life savings, gold should be 29x that price which would be $25,375.

In November 1979, there were rumors of a Soviet invasion in troop movements. They invaded the day before Christmas in hopes of catching everyone off guard. We can see that gold rallied from $373 to $875 in just 12 weeks and it was all about confidence. Jimmy Carter was the president who was at least a genuinely nice guy, but incompetent as president. Now we have once more an incompetent president but he is not a nice guy. The rally in gold back then had NOTHING to do with the rise in debt nor with inflation. It was a rally on the collapse in confidence that the stability of the world was crumbling before everyone’s eyes. When World War III did not appear to be on the horizon, gold declines while they were preaching inflation and debt, but the market ignored those factors as it has once more today.

We have Panic Cycles in politics in 2022 and then again in 2024. We have the opportunity to take back all our countries in 2022 from the USA, Europe, and Australia. It is up to us to stand up and exert our political pressure to defeat these elitists who always think they know best and we are the hated Great Unwashed they view as rats that have overrun their playground. Our computer, Socrates, they have feared like Stalin who executed Kondratieff because Stalin too did not like a forecast that said the Soviet Union would fail. This Great Cabal (Gates-Schwab-Soros), will also fail but they will not go without a fight. Far too many who take money from Gates have no problem using COVID as a military tactic to end our freedom. They know that a coronavirus can NEVER be eradicated for it will reside in animals and come back every season like the Bird Flu, then Swin Flu, etc. So they are using COVID to destroy our freedom knowing that it will always be here so they lie to the people and create a never-ending military suppression.

They have waged a war against Socrates and me personally and even tried to have me killed. After being in a coma for about one week, I survived to their dismay. The movie on me, the Forecaster, was insured by Llyods of London. Every allegation in that movie had to be proven to get the insurance. I had it in writing that they demanded the source code.

Socrates, not me, projects chaos ahead in 2022 politically, in markets, and in public confidence. This is a battle they are waging to seize the world and reshape it in their own image. They can kill me, destroy Socrates, but it will change nothing. They are doomed by their own arrogance.

Conspiracy Theories Coming True


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Sep 2, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, your forecasts have been amazingly correct years in advance and then we get to watch other analysts coming in at the last minute to pretend they called it. You have always been in the mix and actually know all the people in all of these events since Long Term Capital Management. I have followed you since the 1980s. Now, everything you have said from the start of this pandemic that others called conspiracy theories is also coming true. Are you sure someone does not speak to you in the middle of the night? LOL

PMN

REPLY: Well if anyone is whispering to me while I’m sleeping, I don’t remember when I wake up, or maybe this is all one giant elaborate dream. Putting the world together from a global perspective simply allows you to see the whole picture. It’s like those who would write and accuse me of just being a Trump supporter and were caught up in this myopic perspective of only looking at domestic events. They are just incapable of ever seeing that the real strings being pulled are from other sources outside the USA. Only now are people starting to see that this was NEVER an election between Trump v Biden. This was Trump v Schwab, Gates, Soros, and all the agencies associated with the United Nations from the IMF, WHO, World Bank, and BIS.

Schwab has even put it in his 2030 agenda — the United States will NO LONGER be the world’s leading superpower. Instead, the title will be shared by a “handful of countries,” which is of course the United Nations. The UN’s World Health Organization (WHO) has created this pandemic, and who is its biggest contributor once Trump removed US funding, as did Ronald Reagan? None other than Bill Gates.

Soros has been pushing for the end of the world economy as we know it. He sees China as state capitalism because the government is not elected, but it allows the freedom of its people to produce and innovate. With US and Western capitalism, which he calls international capitalism, the only real difference is that the governments are elected. He set forth here back in 2010 his view that we need to create a new global economy, and he sees the G20/United Nations as that role and naively believes that this will end conflicts and war because there would be only one government.

This is why you have Schwab stating in his 2030 Agenda that they will retain the “checks and balances that underpin our democracies,” but your right to vote is unimportant. This is Soros’ new vision of creating a new world order for we the Great Unwashed are to be just told what to do.

They needed to get rid of Trump to pull off their attempt to create a one-world government. Trump was the obstacle, for he did not agree with this agenda. Biden stated clearly he would immediately rejoin the United Nations. There are people in Washington who you would call a traitor because they have bought into this idea of man-made climate change and believe it will take a one-world government to save the planet.

COVID is a scam. I ABSOLUTELY know that people were told in advance a virus was coming, and the COVID Crash in March 2020 our computer picked up as a manipulation, yet they did use our model to get the timing when to strike. They have been fighting me for decades, so this time they tried to use my timing, but the markets rebounded, and they failed to create another 2007-2009 crisis they had hoped would be a Great Depression. That would have made it easy for them to redesign the world economy, as was the case with Roosevelt. That was their agenda, and it FAILED.

I have stated clearly that I use to fly around and meet the people who wanted to run for president. It was a process where I would actually be assessing if they could handle the job. I was then asked to fly to Texas to meet Bush Jr. but was told this was “different” because he was “stupid,” which totally shocked me. When I asked why they would make someone “stupid” president, they said he had the name. I was then asked if I would take the role of Chief Economic Adviser in the White House, and I declined. I was not about to give up my business for such a short-term gig.

But 1999 was when the line was crossed. Perhaps I was naive and did not realize that I was working behind the curtain in what would become the Deep State. As I reflect back on my life, I see what was developing, but 1999 was when the line between the country and the bureaucracy was crossed. Where I thought I was helping the country, I then saw how that taste of power distorted those in Washington to believe they could do a better job.

I was drawn in after being called in 1985 as an expert on reconstructing the world monetary system, which was the birth of what was then the G5 at the Plaza Accord, and today is the G20. I disagreed and went out of committee, as they said, and wrote directly to President Reagan. Ever since, they just saw me not as the typical “YES man” agreeing with whatever to stay in the game and pretend I was important. I have always liked my independence, and trading markets were just like an ATM machine for me, so I never needed money. I did not inherit anything but fortitude, my father’s intellect, my mother’s tenacity with respect to honor (tending to hold fast), and talent for trading that seems to have been in the family for decades.

Yes, I have been in the mix. I have had a front-row seat, which is why they tried so hard to eliminate me. I have been tenacious and held to my beliefs that have been formed by studying history; I can see very clearly what they are trying and how they will fail. So while others are simply plagiarizing our models, they are blind to the real outcome, or they would stand up and do something other than trying to simply rack in money.

Cycles in Fashion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 19, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Isn’t the current version of the economy much more decadent than in ancient times? So the past is not always the same.

WG

ANSWER: I think you have not paid attention or perhaps you have never gone to a museum. The one thing that stands out is the constant changing in fashion. It’s been a long-standing joke that when women’s skirts rise, so does the stock market. When they fall to nearly the ground, the market crashes – i.e. Roaring ’20s.

There are indeed similar trends in ancient times. The term he assumed the Purple meant that the Emperor was the only one allowed to wear purple which was a very expensive die imported from India. In the Catholic Church during Advent, the priest wears purple vestments symbolizing the same Roman tradition.

However, even if you look at the coinage of the various wives of Emperors, and you will quickly notice the changing hairstyles. I suggest looking at a Fashion Museum and you will also see a cycle in clothing that corresponds to the rise and fall in temperatures. Fashion indeed becomes more elaborate in good times, and it does become standard during the bad times.

Questions: Ides of June 2021


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re- Posted Jun 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello,
re: Fauci Under Global Attack
I have to disagree with your comment that China did not benefit. I think they had to have been somewhat aware of what was going on, or at least caught on early and let it happen. This was a big benefit to them, specifically with respect to Hong Kong and the protests that had been going on there for a long time. I think anytime China has an opportunity to grab more control over its citizens, they will take it.

But I do agree with your belief of how it went down. I reviewed the publically available evidence such as patents, etc. a year ago and thought it was highly probable that this was man-made and intentionally released. That being said, it really doesn’t matter. Governments will use any excuse, with help from the media (pravda) to grab more power….in the name of protecting our freedoms, how ironic. I continue to be amazed at how dumb people are.
On another note, and I am a very anti-violent, anti-war person, but…why doesn’t someone just assassinate Gates, Schwab and Soros? Cut the snake off at the head, so to speak.
What are your thoughts on Mauritius? I am looking to get away from this crazy world.

MR

ANSWER: All the information I have, which is EXTREMELY reliable and firsthand, not hearsay, points to this being created to further the Great Reset. China benefits from the deliberate response of the West, which is organized as part of this Build Back Better arrangement. I can confirm the Great Reset was talked about at Davos 1 year before COVID. They selected China in an effort to force them to join this Great Reset. China was on track to exceed the US as the largest economy before COVID. Their economy grew BECAUSE they did not deliberately try to crush it for the Great Reset. This is like a wife whose husband was killed in 9/11 saying she benefited because he had a large life insurance policy. China will become the Financial Capital of the World and they need not do anything but sit on the side, reject the Great Reset, and watch the West self-destruct.

Now as far as someone assassinating Gates, Soros, and Schwab, I think history proves that at the very least there will be attempts on their lives. After all, on July 20, 1944, Claus von Stauffenberg (1907 – July 21st, 1944) and other conspirators attempted to assassinate Adolf Hitler inside his Wolf’s Lair field headquarters near Rastenburg, East Prussia. The name Operation Valkyrie—originally referring to part of the conspiracy—has become associated with the entire event. There will be someone else who emerges to save humanity just as Claus von Stauffenberg tried to save Germany.

QUESTION: Dear Martin Armstrong
What happened to the various sectors of the oil industry? Why are they not talking back? No, CO2 is not destroying the climate! No, we are not the cause of global warming. There is no global warming! We are not destroying the seas with oil and plastic garbage, lack of utilities for sensible waste handling is. Why don’t we hear objections from the big companies? Why are they so compliant with all these faulty narratives? I fail to see what NWO, WEF, Great Reset and more rubbish of the sort have to offer them. Their power base is more potent than this lofty rhetoric from experts and fake scientists. It’s their products that makes the world economy spin around. Why don’t they say something?
Top high regards and mountains of best greetings
/Uni

Unknown

ANSWER: I believe that there have been major bribes paid to some politicians. I also believe that Bill Gates was involved with Epstein, not for young girls, which would have been legal in Europe if they are over 14, but for the purpose of getting powerful people in a compromising position to blackmail them. I suppose the test of my theory will be if Ghislaine Maxwell is actually allowed to go to trial. She has refused to plead guilty and they seem to be trying to get her sick or to pull off another suicide. Her conditions in solitary confinement are deplorable as they flood her cell with raw sewage. But according to Biden, Americans never torture anyone. RIGHT!  Even when I petitioned the court to be taken to a real doctor the judge denied medical treatment. You have no idea how ruthless these people really are. They will stop at nothing to win.

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,

I hope this email finds you.

Admittedly, I was first drawn to your blog years ago due to an interest in economics. After seeing various academic theories proved false by the market, I was searching online for someone out there with experience who could shed some light. Personally, I’ve become more and more curious about subjects beyond economics/politics. I want to learn more about how things are connected, something you’ve highlighted many times.

Do you have any recommended reading into physics? Something to help me orient myself. I would love to understand more how physics links into economics. Not just at a high level.

Kind regards,
SJ

ANSWER: I wish I could refer you to a book on the blending of these subjects, but unfortunately I cannot. I am trying to write a book on this to bring together the works of various people I have studied over the years. The greatest problem has been that they are specialists in their field but do not step outside of that.

One of our major Australian corporate clients ordered their CFO to meet with me after he lost $50 million in foreign exchange. He was against cycles and had his back up, which was understandable. No matter what I said, he would dismiss our track record as luck. I finally asked him his background. He said he had a degree as a nuclear physicist. I said, “Great! Let’s look at the markets from the Second Law of Thermodynamics.” His mount dropped and said, “Oh my God, there has to be a cycle!” I responded, “You got it!”

They just do not bring the various fields together. That is what I am hoping to do with the fourth book in this series I have been writing, “The Geometry of Time.”  I hope to have the “Discovery of the Business Cycle” ready by the end of the year. After these five books, I will be ready for Scotty to Beam Me Up. I did what I was supposed to do.

QUESTION: You have mentioned more often ancient coins rather than US coins as an investment. Is there any particular reason other than your personal interest in history?

WG

ANSWER: The Chinese are big buyers now of ancient coins in addition to their own. But the difference with ancient coins is that there are collectors worldwide so they tend to be much more of an international market. The coins of a particular country still are valuable but tend to be local — not international. The 1933 $20 gold coin just sold at Sotheby’s for $18,872,250 on an estimate of $10-$15 million would not bring that kind of money in Beijing.

Human Nature Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good Morning,
If we take the statement “History repeats because human nature never changes” it would suggest that the human nature cycle will never reverse. That in itself does not track. If everything is like a pendulum, shouldn’t it swing back around to where human nature can and will change?
And a lesser 2nd question to that end, if human nature did change how would that affect Socrates’ forecasts 🙂 ?

GM

ANSWER: Human nature will never change insofar as we all have personal feelings — we can love or hate. That said, we are also influenced by mob behavior. The experiments of Stanley Milgram show that people would torture another if ordered to do so. He called his discovery, Obedience to Authority.

That said, society swings back and further between public & private confidence. People canceling anyone who has ever said anything, even 30 years ago, is the swing of the pendulum excessively to the left. The swing is based upon the “sheep” who can be herded and they will move back and forth depending upon their influence. That does not negate that we still have within human nature the battle between good and evil. Therefore, every government in history has collapsed because human nature swings back and forth.

Socrates is NOT HARD-CODED to follow some specific predetermined outcome. It adapts to the changes in trends. It is truly Artificial Intelligence, not some neural net or expert system that looks up the predetermined answer.  All I did was teach it how TO ANALYZE and then set it loose on the world. This is a very important point. I was interested in discovering how the world functions. I did not create a program to merely report what I wanted it to say — I am not the government!

This is the real deal. It has taught me a lot in life.

Manipulations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I have read your blog every day for years and you really appreciate the behind the curtain look at the world. You mentioned that gold is not manipulated which I can understand. My question is if the Silver market is really manipulated or not? I read that JP Morgan has been fined many times for just that. You have mentioned on multiple occasions that once the metals are ready run that silver will out place gold. Will the Liquidity crisis set this all into motion?
Thanks,
NEF

ANSWER: They can “manipulate” any market within the trend. What they cannot do is make a bull market out of a bear market or vice versa because EVERYTHING is connected. You cannot have gold trading for $100 more than it does in Shanghai compared to New York, it will be quickly arbitraged. So to be very clear, what I am talking about is a sustainable reversal of trend counter to everything else in the world. I went head-to-head against Buffett during his last and final attempt at commodity manipulation thanks to PhiBro.  This is what I am talking about. They moved the silver from New York to London and had the fake news talk about a shortage in silver to jack the price up. They were only looking for a rally to $7 and then they sell it to the retail crown once again.

I know the gold bulls hate my guts because they want to always say gold is manipulated. NOTHING is systemically manipulated for decades. The only time that has taken place is governments imposing controls of fixing currency values. Even that never can be sustained. I was named FOREX person of the year because I had forecast when the Swiss peg would collapse. I even met with the head of that operation for the Swiss central bank. I warned him the peg would crack a few weeks prior. He said they could hold it and I replied nobody has ever been able to fix a currency against the capital flows. The peg broke. The same was true in the 1997 South East Asia Currencies Crisis where the pegs broke. I was called in by the central bank of China on that one. Then there was the British pound peg to the ERM that broke and made Soros a billionaire.

I have been around with all of these attempts to manipulate. NEVER has it ever been able to be sustained against the trend. Yes, they can get a blip. But never have they been able to change the long-term trend. The manipulations that they have often been fined over as in LIBOR  is they know ow where the stops are and they push the market to elect them. But that is not changing a bull market into a bear market. That is often involving front-running.

NYC in Crash Mode?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted May 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

New York City is dying thanks to COVID. It has really killed Broadway. When I would often go to a play, the vast majority were tourists from overseas. I would often listen to the different languages being spoken around me. New York City is clearly dying as a mass exodus has taken place of not just the rich, but even Wall Street is moving quietly to Florida. The rise in taxation that is reducing the quality of life will only continue to send more people south, and the hallow remains will gradually decline into 2042. Even permits for guns have soared in New York as the police are unable to restore order. The East Village was the hardest hit with so many businesses just gone. NYC is rapidly becoming extinct. Politicians only see the world from their perspective. They fail completely to comprehend how the economy truly functions. Thus, NYC is on the edge.

This COVID plan-demic has so altered the social structure it is dividing the population into vaccinated v unvaccinated. Even among those who were vaccinated, they are not what you would call Biden supporters. Some have taken the vaccination just to be able to visit family in Europe. Others thought that it would mitigate COVID and prevent hospitalization. Yet, the destruction of jobs and suspending education for many cannot learn remotely. There is also a massive shift with millennials returning home to the nest.

The Democrats are hard at work and desperately trying to open the flood gates to grant citizenship to those from the Mexican border, giving them access to a welfare state, while keeping the border closed to Canadians, fearing they would vote Republican. Then they are also promising citizenship to what they call the “dreamers,” again trying to expand their voting base.

While many try to blame China for COVID and presume they did this deliberately while they are not locked down, any rational thinking person would quickly realize that such theories are attributing clairvoyance to the Chinese leaders. Never in 6,000 years of history has any nation ever carried out such a response. Even during Woodstock, the Hong Kong Flu had the same death rate as COVID, and nobody shut the entire world economy down.

It is very interesting how the 309.6-year cycle marked when NYC was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1975, which was spot on from when NYC was born in 1665. It is stunning how New York has followed the ECM model rather closely, which does not bode well for what is coming in 2022. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis marked its epicenter in New York City. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns accelerated an economic meltdown that became the Great Recession. Before it was over, the nation’s unemployment rate had reached 10%, but the loss of jobs in the financial sector of NYC approached 20%. Nearly 9 million payroll jobs had been lost, housing prices had plummeted, and the stock market had crashed.

Since New York City was the epicenter of the 2008 financial crisis, the federal government’s immediate response was too focused on propping up New York-based financial institutions. They feared that if the Investment Banks failed, then the government would no longer be able to sell its debt into the marketplace. The national economic downturn was officially dated from December 2007 to mid-2009 when Real Gross Domestic Product began to increase again, but non-farm payroll employment didn’t bottom out until the first quarter of 2010.

Thanks to COVID lockdowns, this financial crisis is politically made and has created a cycle inversion. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, this time, the source of the crisis is government, and the response is the opposite of what we saw during the 2007-2009 crisis. Where Lehman Brothers marked the collapse in the private sector from reckless financial products, this time it is the government’s incompetence. The result has been over 100,000 wealthy people migrating from NYC to Florida. Worse still, Wall Street itself is quietly leaving, relocating their most profitable positions and trading to Florida. The crisis facing NYC will escalate, and the financial crossing of the Rubicon will arrive in 2022.

Collapse of Entertainment – Including Sports


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Apr 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Oscar viewing fell below 10 million, a crash mode from last year’s historic low of 23.6 million viewers compared to nearly 30 million in 2019 pre-COVID. The entire entertainment industry, from movies and Oscars to football and sports, indicates that the future is not so bright and sunny.

I warned back in 2016 that football was entering a bear market. Indeed, 2015 was the peak that lined up with our Economic Confidence Model. It appears we are heading into a major low by 2023. However, the final low may not appear until 2027/2028.  I have also warned that politics does NOT belong in entertainment, be it Hollywood or on the football field. People turn to entertainment to be entertained — not indoctrinated by their political views.

Interestingly, 2015.75 was the start of the Big Bang, the sovereign debt crisis that will lead to the total collapse of governmental debt on a global scale 17.2 years from that turning point — 2032. The fact that entertainment also peaked with 2015.75 is indicative of the collapse in the public confidence in the government, which is becoming escalated by this COVID manipulation where these morons think they can destroy the economy and build it back better when in fact, they are only fulfilling the forecast of our model.

New York & California losing Seats as the Mass Exodus continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The two states that are dictating what goes down in Washington are California with Pelosi in the House and New York with Schumer. Now they will reap what they have sown. The 2020 Census report is out and despite the Democrat’s desperate attempt to count illegal aliens, both New York and California are losing seats. Indeed, the seven states where people are fleeing from are the Democratic states that have imposed the Nazi tactics of lockdowns and curfews. Each of the Democratic states will lose a seat in the House – New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Indeed, perhaps the most disgusting governor of the lot is really the billionaire James Conley Justice II of West Virginia. He is the richest man in West Virginia but inherited his wealth from his father who had a coal mining business. He is characterized as a deadbeat in business. He is the 36th governor of West Virginia since 2017.  In 2015, he announced his candidacy for governor in the 2016 West Virginia gubernatorial election. Despite being a registered Republican before running for governor, he ran as a Democrat and defeated the Republican nominee, Bill Cole.

The seats lost to California and New York are going to Florida and Texas with the former gaining one seat and Texas gains two seats. New York lost around 1.4 million residents to other states between 2010 to 2019, according to a report by the Empire Center released in January 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic arrived in the U.S. This Census does not really take into account the massive exodus from both states thanks to COVID which has picked up steam in 2021. Indications are that over 3 million people have left New york. Even rents in New York City are in crash mode as so many people have just left the high taxes and the extremist lockdowns. Meanwhile, violence in New York City is reaching new records with 46 shootings in a single week. The likelihood of the police ever regaining control is not very promising. Teenage suicides are rising sharply in the Democratic states. The lockdowns have been causing suicides among the youth on a global scale.

The population of California stopped peaking several years before the coronavirus pandemic thanks to taxes. Newsom’s insane lockdown saw 2020 mark California losing more residents to outmigration than it gained. Residents have migrated to Texas primarily as well as to neighboring states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon. The northern Democratic states have a net migration to Florida. The Republican states gained and the Democratic states lost. The more extreme the state response to COVID, the higher the probability of their seat loss. Based upon the new Census, the House can easily flip as the Democrats, who really have only a 2 seat voting majority, can find themselves out the door.

In our Election Report last year, we warned that in addition to the likelihood of New York losing a seat, there would be a consolidation in New York City and that may result in losing our best Congressional entertainment – AOC who has singled handily terminated jokes about dumb blonds providing hair color has no real significance.

Revealing History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Mar 31, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I find it interesting how two people the general consensus has said were scoundrels, John Law and Julius Caesar, you have shown were actually people against the establishment. I read your Anatomy of a Debt Crisis and you have put together the contemporary historians where everyone else just seems to rely on the fake news of the day.

Thank you for digging up the facts.

HY

REPLY: When I was in high school, I had to read Galbraith’s “Great Crash.” Nowhere in his book did he ever mention defaults on national debts by any country. When I came across Herbert Hoover’s memoirs in an old book store in London, this was probably the second thing that changed my life, with the first being the movie  “The Toast of New York” about the Panic of 1869 when gold hit $162.50, which I had to watch in history class. I learned not to trust the history books, and the best way to find out the truth was always to return to the contemporary reports of history and/or the newspapers of the time.

The coinage has been a major factor in identifying the history and accurately dating events. Here is an extremely rare coin of Julius Caesar. Note that there is no portrait of him. He is announcing his victory in Gaul. His Gallic campaign was initially a piecemeal affair, but within six years, he had expanded Roman rule over the whole of Gaul. Following years of relative success, mainly thanks to the disconnected nature of the tribes allowing him to take them on separately (divide and conquer), Caesar was faced with the chief of the Arverni tribe, Vercingetorix, who too late had built a confederation to stand against Caesar. In 52 BC, despite formidable resistance, Caesar finally defeated Vercingetorix at the Battle (or Siege) of Alesia. This illegal war which by Caesar’s own account had left a million dead, was instrumental in elevating him to a position of supreme power among the statesmen of the late Republic, making him incredibly wealthy through war booty and also making him dangerously popular with the plebs — the common people.

This coin was struck in the course of Caesar’s war against the Senatorial faction led by Pompey and later Metellus Scipio. Caesar’s triumphant coinage trumpets his military achievements and conquest in Gaul while reminding the bearer also of his claimed descent from Venus through Aeneas. Interestingly, behind the bust is how old he is IIL or 48 years old. The reverse figure tied below the trophy of arms is popularly believed to depict the defeated Vercingetorix. The figure is carefully rendered in detail of how the Gauls appeared unshaven often with tattoos in blue to frighten their opponents.

In order to consolidate his power when he returned, Caesar produced triumphant coinage to spread the news of his military capability. The reverse of this coin is popularly believed to depict Vercingetorix himself. In 48-47 BC, the defeated Gallic chieftain still languished in the Tullianum, the underground prison beneath the Comitium. He would be hauled out for Caesar’s triumph in 46 BC, then returned to his cell and strangled.

This example of Julius Caesar AR Denarius was struck by a military mint moving with Caesar to pay the troops on a regular basis between 48-47 BC.

This is a Roman silver denarius struck by Brutus announcing he killed Caesar on the Ides of March 15, 44 BC (EID MAR). As you can see, the coinage can actually be used to confirm history to the year and sometimes to even the very day.