Cycles, Einstein & Galileo – Geometry of Time


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It has dawned on me studying Einstein’s General Relativity, that the two of you reached the same realization from different fields. Newton’s laws of gravity were turned upside down by Einstein who rejected Newton that there was a linear formation to space. Einstein came up with the fact that space was curved and that time and space were linked so that time was not the same throughout the universe. In reading the few chapters on the Geometry of Time you handed out at I think was the 2011 WEC, your entire process is also linking the curvature and time albeit from a different observation than Einstein.

Would you elaborate?

GDM

ANSWER: According to Einstein’s theory of general relativity, massive objects warp the spacetime around them, and the effect a warp has on objects is what we call gravity. So, locally, spacetime is curved around every object with mass. However, what led Einstein to his discovery was the question of free fall. Before I had ever ready Einstein, I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding. I went to my friend’s house nearby and finally got my nose to stop bleeding. I kept tasting blood. I opened my mouth and saw the injury and only then did it start to hurt. It was a good 30 minutes. I went to the hospital and they stitched me up.

Two things dawned on me that day. First, I asked why did my mouth not hurt until I saw I was insured? Secondly, when I was falling, I did not feel like a dead weight, but I felt like I was flying – weightless.

Because of that incident, I came to realize that there was some truth to the saying what you do not know, can’t hurt you. But it also gave me insight into what Einstein was talking about. In the middle of a free fall, you feel weightless as if gravity has canceled itself out. Actually, Aristotle first tried to reason that a heavy object will fall faster than a light object in a free fall. He was incorrect. Galileo was the first to actually get it right. He realized that a falling body picked up speed at a constant rate.Galileo also made the observation that in a vacuum, all bodies fall with the same acceleration. That was a truly astonishing idea. That experiment was carried out on the moon with a hammer and a feather. They both fell to the ground at the same time.

Yes, these things influenced me in seeing what I called the Geometry of Time in how and why do trends unfold and what are their durations? Was there a constant force at work, or were there patterns of time within time? This is an extremely complex subject. Far too much for a blog post. I will publish that work in 2020.

 

Back to the Moon: Trump Appointee Fires NASA Veteran to Speed Lunar Mission


Published on Jul 15, 2019

President Trump wants NASA to get Americans back to the moon in five years. To heighten the urgency, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine — a Trump political appointee — fires William Gerstenmaier, a well-respected 42-year NASA veteran in charge of human space exploration. Will this sudden move light a fire under the bureaucracy, or did we just lose four decades of institutional knowledge jeopardizing our safe return to the lunar surface? Should NASA get our of the business of human space transportation? Bill Whittle Now, with Scott Ott, comes to you free because a growing group of committed conservatives pays for its production. If you’d like to step up as a producer and join them, visit https://BillWhittle.com/register/

 

Watch SpaceX launch 60 Starlink satellites in ONE launch!


Everyday Astronaut

Streamed live on May 23, 2019
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SpaceX will be launching 60 demonstration satellites for their Starlink Internet constellation. The Falcon 9 will launch from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The first stage booster for this mission is B0149. It is flying its third mission, it previous launched the Telstar 18V satellite in September of 2018 and flew the Iridium 8 mission in January of this year. It will be landing approximately 621 km (385 miles) downrange on the Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (ASDS), Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY). This will be one of the farthest downrange landing locations for a Falcon 9 so far. Want more info? We’ve got you covered! Check out our Prelaunch Preview for this (and upcoming) mission(s)! – https://everydayastronaut.com/prelaun…

Understanding the Energy Model


 

QUESTION: Hi Marty

I try not to bother you with questions, I know you’re plenty busy answering much more complex questions but I’m wondering if you could explain energy in the markets a bit?

I always watch for divergences in energy and price (both positive and negative), or fading energy during a rally, or a random jump in energy during a consolidation period but I can’t stop thinking about your last private blog where it can’t crash if the energy is negative… so only if it’s peaking? So should someone be cautious if the energy starts getting high? Does that also mean if it’s negative it has more potential to swing to the upside?

Here on bitcoin energy peaked after price peaked, which leaves me confused again, what does that mean? And both Bitcoin and Netflix and others I’ve found had a panic to the upside when the energy went negative, is this more of a rule, or are these exceptions?

And the million dollar question, are there other things I should be watching when it comes to energy? I’m sure there is still much I don’t know

Thank you,
NS

ANSWER:  The Energy Model is measuring the bulls against the bears. It is providing a different measurement of how much “energy” remains in the market from the long-side. Therefore, if people are recently long, i shows to what extent that represents the whole of the market position. A crash is possible when energy is at a high level and a rally is likely when energy is negative.

In the case of Bitcoin, the market failed to make a new high with the new high in energy. That was the divergence warning that this was a top. In Netflix, the market was bottoming and the energy turned negative. Again, because the energy was negative, that effectively means the liquidation is over. It is impossible to get a panic crash without energy still in the positive. The risk will be to the upside when the energy is negative.

Now, let’s look at the Dow. You can see that energy bottomed negative three weeks from the breakout. This, again, warned there would be no crash as everyone was predicting. The Energy Indicator is an excellent tool in judging the risk in a market from a purely numerical perspective — not opinion.

 

Artificial Intelligence: it will kill us | Jay Tuck | TEDxHamburgSalon


Published on Jan 31, 2017

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For more information on Jay Tuck, please visit our website http://www.tedxhamburg.de US defense expert Jay Tuck was news director of the daily news program ARD-Tagesthemen and combat correspondent for GermanTelevision in two Gulf Wars. He has produced over 500 segments for the network. His investigative reports on security policy, espionage activities and weapons technology appear in leading newspapers, television networks and magazines throughout Europe, including Cicero, Focus, PC-Welt, Playboy, Stern, Welt am Sonntag and ZEITmagazin. He is author of a widely acclaimed book on electronic intelligence activities, “High-Tech Espionage” (St. Martin’s Press), published in fourteen countries. He is Executive Producer for a weekly technology magazine on international television in the Arab world. For his latest book “Evolution without us – Will AI kill us?” he researched at US drone bases, the Pentagon, intelligence agencies and AI research institutions. His lively talks are accompanied by exclusive video and photographs. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

How to defend yourself against misleading statistics in the news | Sanne Blauw | TEDxMaastricht


Published on Nov 3, 2016

Numbers are being used every day. In the news, in politics, in our jobs, and even in our social interactions. They are used to convince, explain, but also to deflect from what is truly happening. Too often, numbers appear as abstract, objective and difficult. Sanne Blauw’s mission is to make the world of numbers accessible to all. Sanne has broken most stereotypes about someone interested in mathematics throughout her life. From working at the OECD, to being a member of her University Council, to becoming a journalist. Sanne is far more than what most people would expect from a person with a PhD in econometrics. She strives to convince all of us to second-guess the numbers that shape our worldview. This talk is a must for all who work in journalism. Sanne Blauw is journalist for De Correspondent. She obtained a PhD degree in econometrics at the Tinbergen Institute and the Econometric Institute of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Using various quantitative methods, she combined applied micro-econometrics, psychology and development economics. Sanne is convinced that a better understanding of statistics would make the world a better place. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

Australia Lowers Rate to Historic Low of 1%


The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate for the second month in a row to 1%. As we head into the turning point of the Economic Confidence Model come January 2020, the unemployment rate increased to 5.2% in April. GDP growth remains very low at 0.4%, wage growth is sluggish, inflation is well below target, and retail sales are struggling. None of this will change until after the ECM turns as people begin to see that central banks are incapable of managing the economy.

Watch SpaceX Push their Falcon Heavy further than ever!


Want a full rundown? Check out our Prelaunch Preview for this launch! – https://everydayastronaut.com/prelaun… SpaceX will be launching the Space Test Program 2 (STP-2) rideshare mission for the U.S. Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center on a Falcon Heavy rocket. This Falcon Heavy is composed of a new block 5 center core (B1057) and the two block 5 side boosters (B1052 & B1053) from the Arabsat-6A mission. The launch window for this mission opens at 11:30 PM EDT on June 24, 2019 and is 4 hours in duration. The Falcon Heavy will be lifting off from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. After burning for about 2 and a half minutes, the side boosters will separate from the core booster and boost back to the launch site for a landing at Landing Zones 1 & 2 (LZ-1 & LZ-2). The core booster will continue burning for another minute, before shutting down and separating from the second stage. The core booster will be landing approximately 1,240 km (771 miles) downrange on Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship, Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY).

The Forecast of 1997 Calling for the Inverse Relationship between Bonds & Shares Remains on Target


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I attended your WEC in London back in 1997 when the Euro Commission took the entire back row. I remember your forecast that we would begin a period of a dramatic shift in the bond-equity correlation I believe you said would last for at least 23 years. That is nearly due. You were obviously correct and that did begin with the introduction of the euro in 1998. You were dead center between Barton Biggs and Steve Roach. Do you still see this inverse relationship flipping in 2021 as you forecast back then?

JK

PS I left the bank….. and am now retired.

ANSWER: A lot of people I knew in the various banks back in the 1990s have left before the cards start to fall. I remember well. They were at Morgan Stanley back then and the two were polar opposites on their forecasts if I remember correctly. Barton Biggs argued that the world would be flooded by a glut of cheap Asian labor and Steve Roach was pointing to the Philips Curve warning that public deficits in the west would lead to a massive inflationary bonfire.

The Stock-Bond Correlation was the real debate. Our model was warning that stocks and bonds would indeed behave very differently which has materialized. Since 1998, stock prices and bond prices have been negatively correlated. In other words, when stock prices go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Overall, stocks and bonds are indeed currently acting in opposition to each other on the macro-trend level. There has been a negative correction which some call the “flight to quality” when confidence collapses in the private sector, capital fled to the public sector. The broader 250-year relationship would argue that this is highly unusual. It is true that stocks and bonds moved up and down together throughout the 250 years prior to the 21st century.

The reason I delivered that forecast back then was the realization that government debt had entered a perpetual borrowing cycle ever since World War II. Moreover, the 224-year cycle of political change was due in 1999. That meant the political peak in government would take place at that time. The economic peak would by 2007. Both of those forecasts have been absolutely correct. Politics has declined steadily and ever since the 2007-2009 crash, interest rates have dropped sharply and there has been a contraction in inflation with a decline in economic growth.

In Its Just Time, I wrote: “While the clear high in the political state of the United States took place in 1999, the economic high came precisely to the day on February 27th, 2007. “

The flip in this relationship is still on target. Nothing requires any change to that forecast I delivered back in 1997. This is all being driven by the Sovereign Debt Crisis.

The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary


All the real science is warning that there is a reasonable chance that we are headed into a much colder period ahead. This will have an impact on food prices and out computer models have been warning that the next wave of the Economic Confidence Model should be an inflationary wave. Even a new study from  nature.com said: “The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end.”

The next 8.6-year wave beginning in January should produce a collapse in confidence in governments which will result in a shift from Public to Private assets, but then on top of this, we see a shortage in agricultural markets adding to the inflationary wave coming. Then add the Monetary Crisis and Sovereign Debt Crisis cycles and we end up with some very interesting impacts during the next wave.