Posted originally on CTH on April 3, 2025 | Sundance
The response from the EU is exactly what we would expect to see from the end of the 80-year-old Marshal Plan.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden has three big concerns with the new trade/tariff reset. I strongly suggest everyone to read the EU concerns slowly to fully absorb decades of hypocrisy now surfacing:
#1 The EU will not be able to compete for U.S. market share with 20% general tariffs and 25% auto tariffs.
#2 The EU must deploy countermeasures against the risk of losing industrial capacity and manufacturing to the United States.
And #3 The EU must defend itself against China dumping cheap products into the EU now rejected by the USA.
von der Leyen is concerned mostly about the extremely valuable U.S. consumer being leveraged by President Trump, essentially blocking exploitation from EU and Asia. The EU will not tolerate losing access to the most valuable customers in the world, Americans.
Showcasing the mindset, Ursula von der Leyen vows to take all action needed to retain U.S. customers, even if those customers no longer want her products. The USA will allow Europe access, or there will be hell to pay. I must say this is quite funny.
(Via Politico) […] Von der Leyen said Trump’s tariffs would have dire consequences for consumers and businesses that have prospered through trade with the United States since World War Two.
[…] The EU chief executive said the bloc would ready countermeasures against Trump’s latest tariff broadside, in addition to a €26 billion package responding to tariffs he has already imposed on steel and aluminum. At the same time, she vowed, Brussels will work to protect the industries most exposed.
“We are already finalizing the first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel, and we are now preparing for further countermeasures to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail,” von der Leyen said from Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where she was attending a summit.
“We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have. Because we cannot absorb global overcut capacity, nor will we accept dumping on our markets,” von der Leyen said, as the bloc braces for a flood of cheaper exports coming from China and elsewhere that will be shut out of the U.S. market. (read more)
As noted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, all of the global trade partners would do themselves a favor if they did not react emotionally with increased countervailing duties.
The currently outlined U.S. reciprocal tariffs represent a ceiling amount levied. The goal is to lower the tariffs to zero by eliminating all trade barriers. If the EU raises their baseline tariffs, the only thing that happens is the U.S. side increases at the same proportion. The higher von der Leyen goes in her tariffs, the higher the U.S. countervailing duty applies.
Posted originally on Mar 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I have followed Socrates for over a year now. I was told by friends you run the most unbiased site in the industry. I greatly appreciate how objective it really has been. What I am dumbfounded by is how, with the tension now with Iran and Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, even things like this take place when Socrates projects months in advance. I don’t want the code. You were willing to give your life to protect that. Can you give us a hint at how Socrates can see things nobody else does?
A most respectful convert
MM
ANSWER: I believe that pressure is building within the system, and it is that pressure that compels people to react. The computer forecasts that pressure, not some order that Trump may or may not sign. Trump is compelled to take action because of the pressure. The computer tells us when that pressure will reach a turning point that compels a response.
We have lost the knowledge that existed before the Dark Ages. There is a mysterious force that many do not wish to acknowledge even exists because they cannot see everything simultaneously and connect the dots. I am working hard to deliver two books, which I hope will be my legacy and what I leave behind. I have tried my damndest to defeat my own computer, and I have always failed. The sequel to the movie on me, The Forecaster, may be out by May. I was asked a tricky question, understanding that the forecasts are not my personal opinion. The question was:
How does it feel to live through your own forecasts?
They have been filming me at every conference since 2011. So they have recorded all the forecasts, including me standing up in 2011 and forecasting that the War Cycle would begin in 2014.
Here is the first draft of the Prologue to the book on the business cycle and the Economic Confidence Model. I am working hard to complete it.
Posted originally on Feb 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The UK Home Office is demanding that Apple provide the government backdoor access to users’ encrypted data. Not only are they interested in accessing data on British citizens, but the government has stated it needs access to ALL encrypted iCloud data worldwide on the premise of national security and public safety.
The Home Secretary’s office believes the U.K. Investigatory Powers Act of 2016 legally authorizes law enforcement to obtain communications data on the premise of collecting evidence, as the government has deemed everyone a potential threat. Governments do not want the people to have end-to-end encryption that they cannot access.
The Advanced Data Protection program launched by Apple in 2022 provides users with the ability to safely keep their data. Users must enable the service, but it prevents even Apple from having backdoor encryption keys. Edward Snowden warned that the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) and NSA successfully hacked all iPhones, Androids, and Blackberry devices. The FBI in the United States tried to prevent Apple from launching this program during Trump’s first term, stating it prevented them from properly investigating crimes. The FBI also demanded that Apple provide it with backdoor access back in 2016 after the 2015 release of the iOS 9 that the government could not easily access.
US intelligence cited the San Bernadino mass shooting incident as an example of why the government must have access to user data. One of the shooters owned an iPhone 5C and the FBI and NSA claimed it could not access the device. The US government and Apple battled in court over the FBI’s insistence that Apple create “GovtOS” to override any encryption measures. The government attempted to use the All Writs Act to force Apple into compliance.
The legal battle came to a halt in March 2016 when the FBI stated it found a way to bypass Apple’s encryption. Former FBI Director James Comey confirmed that the government purchased a hacking tool from a third party but offered no details. The government no longer needed Apply to comply. By 2020, it was estimated that law enforcement used said tool to access over 2,000 devices. But Apple continued to improve its encryption measures since then.
Governments everywhere are becoming more authoritarian as sentiment changes and anti-government sentiment grows. Messaging devices, social media, and any platform where people can freely connect must be under government control. The UK is part of the Five Eyes (FVEY) alliance with the US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada. If one gains access to ALL user data, rest assured that the other four will also have access. Snowden warned the public of this back in 2013. There are programs such as TEMPORA that permit UK and US intelligence to intercept communications through undersea fiber-optic cables. There have been ongoing programs aimed at obtaining data access without the need for warrants or surveillance laws. Whether Apple or any tech company complies is not really of concern, as the government can and will find a way to spy on citizens worldwide.
Posted originally on Feb 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Washington Post reported Friday that the United Kingdom’s deep state has demanded that Apple create a back door for them to retrieve all the content any Apple userworldwide has uploaded to the cloud—what would be an unprecedented erosion of online privacy and civil liberties. This works because once the UK seizes your data, they can hand that to the Feds in the states, and your Constitutional rights are NOT violated because the US government did not illegally seize it without a warrant.
The American Revolution Was Over This Very Issue
And Starmer’s Government is Doing What King George III Did
I store NOTHING in the cloud – EVER!!!!! Why? Because the government can order them to turn over whatever they want without your knowledge. Since they merely store it, they turn it over without blinking an eye. They have NO CONSTITUTIONAL interest in whatever it might be. When they then create laws like they have on child pornography that the mere possession is a crime and they do not need to prove that you actually obtained it or from where, if they claim you had it in the cloud, that would be it. You do not even get to pack your bags or bring a toothbrush.
Under no circumstances ever store ANYTHING in the cloud, for you have no constitutional rights, and they can claim whatever they desire. They can put stud=ff in your account and send you to prison, saying it is yours and no judge will listen to you – EVER! The Washington Post reported that the British government’s undisclosed order was issued last month. It requires Apple to give officials blanket capability to view fully encrypted material. This means that Apple MUST assist British authorities on command. The Post noted that the access sought by the UK “has no known precedent in major democracies.”
The LEFT only cares about themselves, and if you dare to resist, you must be guilty. The Starmer government is destroying civilization, crumbling the very basic foundation of liberty. They want something – how dare you say no!!!!!!!!!!!!! The LEFT is ruthless, and this is how they destroy everything. Biden, when he was president, targeted guns with the end goal of disarming America entirely. He has stated: “No amendment to the Constitution is absolute.” The fundamental objective is to compel everyone to register every gun so they can enter your house without a warrant to seize your weapons.
The Fourth Amendment declares,
“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”
James Otis (1725-1783)
The entire American Revolution was born over illegal searches by the king. It is very sad that Biden and the Democrats have no respect for the Constitution whatsoever. John Adams, Second President, listened to the four-hour speech of the defense lawyer James Otis (1725-1783), who argued against the king’s Writs of Assistance in February 1761 that allowed the government to search whatever they suspected for any reason arbitrarily. History repeats. This is precisely what the Democrats are arguing before the Supreme Court to eliminate the Fourth Amendment. This is devastating to human rights and the very idea of a free society of “We the People.” It is a terrible day we fac,e and this is why I say republics are the worst form of government. Biden never said anything about these objectives. He gets people to vote for him on a false agenda, no different than a fund manager giving a false report claiming he made 300% last year when he really lost 50%. This is outright FRAUD!
Otis argued that the Writs of Assistance, which required no probable cause, placed “the liberty of every man in the hands of every petty officer.” This was in February 1761 in Boston, and the famous debate in which it occurred was perhaps the most prominent event, which inaugurated the resistance of the colonies to the oppressions of the mother country. “Then and there,” said John Adams, “then and there was the first scene of the first act of opposition to the arbitrary claims of Great Britain. Then and there, the child Independence was born.” History indeed repeats. The tyranny of the Biden Administration is unfolding, as was the case under King George III.
Here are a few excerpts from that famous speech of James Otis that so moved John Adams and inspired the birth of the American Revolution.
I will to my dying day oppose, with all the powers and faculties God has given me, all such instruments of slavery on the one hand and villainy on the other as this Writ of Assistance is. It appears to me the worst instrument of arbitrary power, the most destructive of English liberty and the fundamental principles of law, that ever was found in an English law-book…
The writ prayed for in this petition, being general, is illegal. It is a power that places the liberty of every man in the hands of every petty officer. I say I admit that special Writs of Assistance, to search special places, may be granted to certain persons on oath. But I deny that the writ now prayed for can be granted…
In the first place, the writ is universal, being directed “to all and singular justices, sheriffs, constables, and all other officers and subjects”; so that, in short, it is directed to every subject in the King’s dominions. Everyone with this writ may be a tyrant; if this commission be legal, a tyrant in a legal manner, also, may control, imprison, or murder any one within the realm. In the next place, it is perpetual; there is no return. A man is accountable to no person for his doings. Every man may reign secure in his petty tyranny, and spread terror and desolation around him, until the trump of the Archangel shall excite different emotions in his soul. In the third place, a person with this writ, in the daytime, may enter all houses, shops, etc., at will, and command all to assist him. Fourthly, by this writ not only deputies, etc., but even their menial servants, are allowed to lord it over us…
One of the most essential branches of English liberty is the freedom of one’s house. A man’s house is his castle; and whilst he is quiet, he is as well guarded as a prince in his castle. This writ, if it should be declared legal, would totally annihilate this privilege. Custom-house officers may enter our houses when they please; we are commanded to permit their entry. Their menial servants may enter, may break locks, bars, and everything in their way; and whether they break through malice or revenge, no man, no court can inquire. Bare suspicion without oath is sufficient.
Let me make something VERY clear. To enter your home without a warrant means they do not have to claim there is probable cause that you even have anything. What Starmer has decreed is precisely what started the American Revolution. The LEFT is always ruthless, for they constantly claim they are the victims of anyone who has more than they do,
Posted originally on the CTH on February 8, 2025 | Sundance
In a stunning and sweeping emergency injunction that has even stunned the people who demanded it, a Manhattan-based District Judge has just removed Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent from his authority over the Treasury Department; blocked any political appointee from accessing records within the Treasury Department; blocked any “special appointee” of President Trump from records within Treasury; and demanded that all information previously extracted be destroyed.
The emergency injunction was signed by District Judge Paul Engelmayer in Manhattan, {Ruling pdf Here} determined without any input from the Trump administration and applies until Friday, February 14, 2025, when U.S. District Judge Jeannette A. Vargas will hear the full arguments of the lawsuit.
The emergency ruling comes as a result of 15 (Soros installed) attorneys general from New Jersey, New York, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Vermont, all filed suit in New York seeking to block Elon Musk and DOGE from access to information that would reveal how activist groups in their states have been funded by the U.S. government. [Link to Press Release Here]
WASHINGTON – […] The lawsuit said Musk and his team could disrupt federal funding for health clinics, preschools, climate initiatives, and other programs, and that Republican President Donald Trump could use the information to further his political agenda.
DOGE’s access to the system also “poses huge cybersecurity risks that put vast amounts of funding for the States and their residents in peril,” the state attorneys general said. They sought a temporary restraining order blocking DOGE’s access.
The judge, an appointee of Democratic former President Barack Obama, said the states’ claims were “particularly strong” and warranted him acting on their request for emergency relief pending a further hearing before another judge on February 14.
“That is both because of the risk that the new policy presents of the disclosure of sensitive and confidential information and the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking,” Engelmayer wrote.
New York Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat whose office is leading the case, welcomed the ruling, saying nobody was above the law and that Americans across the country had been horrified by the DOGE team’s unfettered access to their data.
“We knew the Trump administration’s choice to give this access to unauthorized individuals was illegal, and this morning, a federal court agreed,” James said in a statement.
“Now, Americans can trust that Musk – the world’s richest man – and his friends will not have free rein over their personal information while our lawsuit proceeds.”
Engelmayer’s order bars access from being granted to Treasury Department payment and data systems by political appointees, special government employees and government employees detailed from an agency outside the Treasury Department.
The judge also directed that anyone prohibited under his order from accessing those systems to immediately destroy anything they copied or downloaded. (read more)
The order by the judge is transparent judicial activism; it will almost certainly be overturned and nullified by later rulings. However, it creates blocks and slows down the goal of the Dept of Government Efficiency and the objective of the Trump administration.
On what basis do states think they can sue the federal government to stop the federal government from auditing federal spending? How can a judge block the executive branch from executing the functions of the executive branch? This Lawfare activism is ridiculous.
…”restrained from granting access to any Treasury Department payment record, payment systems, or any other data systems maintained by the Treasury Department containing personally identifiable information and/or confidential financial information of payees, other than to civil servants with a need for access to perform their job duties within the Bureau of Fiscal Services who have passed all background checks and security clearances and taken all information security training called for in federal statutes and Treasury Department regulations.” {source}
So, the unelected bureaucracy is in charge and not the Secretary of the Treasury?
This ruling is absolutely insane!
How on Earth are we supposed to stop fraud and waste of taxpayer money without looking at how money is spent?
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