Re posted from the The Rubin Report Published on Rumble on May 20, 2022
Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks to Tucker Carlson, Lewis Howes, Larry King, and the Babylon Bee about why the Democratic party is turning so many liberals into conservatives in this special “best of” episode. Was Dave Rubin ahead of the curve for leaving the left? As identity politics and the oppression olympics destroy the Democratic party, many more Democrats are being turned towards conservatism and classical liberalism. Whether it’s trainings about intersectionality in the workplace or talk of reparations for slavery no one can run away from woke politics any more. Dave discusses what he learned about systemic racism from Larry Elder, and why collective guilt and victimhood culture are pushing many on a similar political journey.
Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on April 19, 2022 | sundance
Lots of people talk about an inflation driven recession. Essentially, that’s a total economic contraction in the value of goods and services produced, sold and purchased, due to rising prices. However, as CTH has been pointing out for more than six months, if you subtract the federal COVID infusion money from the overall economy, we have been in a contracting demand economy for almost nine months.
A negative GDP outcome is quite possible, perhaps likely, when the first quarter GDP figures are released on the last Friday of this month. The most recent sales and economic data shows that U.S. consumers are prioritizing spending and high priced durable good sales are negative.
Now, Fannie Mae is delivering a rather stunning shift in their economic forecast. In addition to projecting a recession for 2023, these revised home purchase figures are remarkable:
...”We have downgraded our total home sales forecast for 2022 to a decline of 7.4 percent (previously a 4.1 percent decline) followed by a decrease of 9.7 percent in 2023 (previously a 2.7 percent decline).” (link)
That is a very significant change in home sales forecast to the negative position.
We already have serious energy inflation to contend with and low wage growth. We already know a third inflation wave on highly consumable goods is coming this summer, likely around 30% or more in food prices at the grocery store.
The professional forecasts are always tilted toward the positive for this administration, so this new statement by Fannie Mae should be considered accordingly. Remember, Boy Scouts motto.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 19, 2022 | sundance
The latest developments in the effort to purchase the unsustainable magic coffee shop are quite revealing.
According to the New York Post, “Musk himself is willing to invest between $10 billion and $15 billion of his own cash to take Twitter private, two sources close to the situation said. That’s up from the current 9.1% stake in the company he revealed on April 4, which is worth about $3.4 billion.”
However, more revealing about the overall issue are the comments from the PR firm of the U.S. Intelligence Community, The Washington Post:
(WaPo) […] “Putting so much power in the hands of one company is bad enough, but putting it in the hands of one person, as is largely the case with Facebook shareholder Mark Zuckerberg and would be the case if Twitter were owned by Musk, would be incompatible with democracy.”
“There are simply no checks and balances from any internal or external force,” … “It would leave Musk, like Zuckerberg, with an amount of assembled data about people and the ability to use it to manipulate them “that cannot be compared to anything that has ever existed, and allows intervention into the integrity of individual behavior and also the integrity of collective behavior.” (read more)
People are starting to catch on to the reality that costs for data processing on many social media platforms (the free coffee), exceeds the ability of the platform to generate revenue. People are starting to understand that behind the scenes of the Big Tech consortium, there is something else, some other operational construct and mechanism, that subsidizes & facilitates their existence.
It is very revealing how the intelligence apparatus of the United States had no issue with Twitter data and influence, until the potential for private ownership, perhaps uncontrolled private ownership, surfaced. Do not be naïve in pretending not to know how The Washington Post represents the interests of the intelligence apparatus.
In the long arc of history, I truly believe we will discover the inflection moment for the merge of U.S. Deep State (intel community) and U.S. Social Media, will be identified in the early moments of the Arab Spring of 2010/2011. That was when Facebook and Twitter became tools for the State Dept operation in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Bahrain and beyond. That was the beta-test of synergy.
“Arab Social Media Report by the Dubai School of Government give empirical heft to the conventional wisdom that Facebook and Twitter abetted if not enabled the historic region-wide uprisings of early 2011.” (LINK)
It was from that original, albeit misguided and manipulative partnership, when the actual details about how to create the social surveillance state was first tested. Everything after those events more than a decade ago, has been this rapidly evolving blend of social media technology and the capacity of the U.S. intelligence apparatus to create and fund the underlying structures.
Daily, we see numerous examples of the ideological control that surfaces as a direct result of this public-private partnership, the closed-conversations between deep government interests (the Fourth Branch) and social media companies which are dependent on the subsidized technology for them to exist.
Perhaps 2022 represents the first time the commonsense of the American electorate begins to recognize the fallacy of the ‘free coffee’ business model. Personally, I am very optimistic people will soon recognize what many have suspected for a long time.
Ultimately the question becomes, how far will the U.S. Fourth Branch of Government go to stop people from understanding?
Marc Andreessen believes Govt and Big Tech will double, triple and quadruple down to keep their public-private partnership, the backbone of the Free Coffee Shop, hidden. I cannot say I disagree, because ultimately it is still only the minority of people who understand the stakes. However, on the upside, the number of people who are starting to understand it, is growing almost exponentially thanks to Elon Musk.
This is one of those situations where we should all welcome being called ‘conspiracy theorists’, because no matter how big the crowd is that refuses to believe it, ultimately the impossible business model of Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop will reveal everything.
That’s why the public-private partnership must stop Elon Musk. As the Washington Post noted, this level of revelation “cannot be compared to anything that has ever existed.”
“Very shadowy” indeed.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 19, 2022 | sundance
Put this in the tracking file for ratios and such. Axios is reporting that CNN+ is likely to collapse as Warner Bros has suspended all external marketing and product development and fired the Chief Financial Officer. The network has spent $300 million, and only generated 150,000 subscribers. A major fail by any measure.
(Via Axios) Warner Bros. Discovery has suspended all external marketing spend for CNN+ and has laid off CNN’s longtime chief financial officer as it weighs what to do with the subscription streaming service moving forward, five sources tell Axios.
• Why it matters: Inside CNN, executives think the launch has been successful. Discovery executives disagree.
• CNN+ has roughly 150,000 subscribers so far.
• Warner Bros. Discovery wants to eventually build one giant service around HBO Max.
• New leadership has replaced CNN CFO Brad Ferrer with Neil Chugani, Discovery’s current CFO for streaming and international, as part of a broader finance team restructuring.
• Other high-level positions at WarnerMedia across different business functions are likely to be eliminated to cut costs and streamline leadership in coming weeks.
What to watch: Sources say a plan is being considered to replace Chris Cuomo’s 9:00pm EST primetime slot with a live newscast, instead of personality-driven perspective programming. (read more)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance
The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, made an offer to purchase the Twitter platform for a price of $41 billion. The offer represents a value of 38% more than the current evaluation. [SEC FILING HERE] The offer is filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission proposing a full takeover for $54.20 per share in cash.
Within the filing Elon Musk states his intentions:
“I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy. However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.
As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder. Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it. (SEC LINK)
What Elon Musk appears to be doing is perhaps the biggest story that few understand.
I share this perspective having spent thousands of hours in the past several years deep in the weeds of tech operating systems, communication platforms, and the issue of simultaneous users. What Twitter represents, and what Musk is attempting, is not what most would think.
In the big picture of tech platforms, Twitter, as an operating model, is a massive high-user commenting system.
Twitter is not a platform built around a website; Twitter is a platform for comments and discussion that operates in the sphere of social media. As a consequence, the technology and data processing required to operate the platform does not have an economy of scale.
There is no business model where Twitter is financially viable to operate…. UNLESS the tech architecture under the platform was subsidized.
In my opinion, there is only one technological system and entity that could possibly underwrite the cost of Twitter to operate. That entity is the United States Government, and here’s why.
Unlike websites and other social media, Twitter is unique in that it only represents a platform for user engagement and discussion. There is no content other than commentary, discussion and the sharing of information – such as linking to other information, pictures, graphics, videos url links etc.
In essence, Twitter is like the commenting system on the CTH website. It is the global commenting system for users to share information and debate. It is, in some ways, like the public square of global discussion. However, the key point is that user engagement on the platform creates a massive amount of data demand.
Within the systems of technology for public (user engagement) commenting, there is no economy of scale. Each added user represents an increased cost to the operation of the platform, because each user engagement demands database performance to respond to the simultaneous users on the platform. The term “simultaneous users” is critical to understand because that drives the cost.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter has approximately 217 million registered daily users, and their goal is to expand to 315 million users by the end of 2023. Let me explain why things are not what they seem.
When people, users, operate on a tech platform using the engagement features, writing comments, hitting likes, posting images, links etc, the user is sending a data request to the platforms servers. The servers must then respond allowing all simultaneous users to see the change triggered by the single user.
Example: when you hit the “like” button feature on an engagement system, the response (like increasing by one) must not only be visible to you, but must also be visible to those simultaneously looking at the action you took. If 100,000 simultaneous users are looking at the same thing, the database must deliver the response to 100,000 people. As a result, the number of simultaneous users on a user engagement platform drives massive performance costs. In the example above, a single action by one person requires the server to respond to 100,000 simultaneous users with the updated data.
As a consequence, when a commenting platform increases in users, the cost not only increases because of that one user, the cost increases because the servers need to respond to all the simultaneous users. Using CTH as an example, 10,000 to 15,000 simultaneous commenting system users, engaging with the servers, costs around $4,500/mo.
This is why most websites, even big media websites, do not have proprietary user engagement, i.e. commenting systems. Instead, most websites use third party providers like Disqus who run the commenting systems on their own servers. Their commenting systems are plugged in to the website; that defers the cost from the website operator, and the third party can function as a business by selling ads and controlling the user experience. [It also sucks because user privacy is non existent]
The key to understanding the Twitter dynamic is to see the difference between, (a) running a website, where it doesn’t really matter how many people come to look at the content (low server costs), and (b) running a user engagement system, where the costs to accommodate the data processing -which increase exponentially with a higher number of simultaneous users- are extremely expensive. Twitter’s entire platform is based on the latter.
There is no economy of scale in any simultaneous user engagement system. Every added user costs exponentially more in data-processing demand, because every user needs a response, and every simultaneous user (follower) requires the same simultaneous response. A Twitter user with 100 followers (simultaneously logged in) that takes an action – costs less than a Twitter user with 100,000 followers (simultaneously logged in), that takes an action.
If you understand the cost increases in the data demand for simultaneous users, you can see the business model for Twitter is non-existent.
Bottom line, more users means it costs Twitter more money to operate. The business model is backwards from traditional business. More customers = higher costs, because each customer brings more simultaneous users….. which means exponentially more data performance is needed.
User engagement features on Twitter are significant, because that’s all Twitter does. Not only can users write comments, graphics, memes, videos, but they can also like comments, retweet comments, subtweet comments, bookmark comments, and participate in DM systems. That is a massive amount of server/data performance demand, and when you consider simultaneous users, it’s almost unimaginable in scale. That cost and capacity is also the reason why Twitter does not have an edit function.
With 217 million users, you could expect 50 million simultaneous users on Twitter during peak operating times. My back of the envelope calculations, which are really just estimations based on known industry costs for data performance and functions per second, would put the data cost to operate Twitter around at least $1 billion per month (minimum). In 2021, Twitter generated $5.1 billion in revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal.
There is no business model, even with paying subscribers, for Twitter to exist. As the business grows, the costs increase, and the costs to subscribers would grow. So, what is going on?
The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap. The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account.
If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy. Let that sink in.
The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database. The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.
There is simply no way the Fourth Branch of Government, the U.S. intelligence system writ large, is going to permit that discovery.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Apr 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
A reader shared this story from last year, highlighting the stupidity of vaccinations. Germany permits legal euthanasia for those suffering from terminal illnesses who meet specific qualifications. One of those qualifications is that they must be vaccinated against COVID-19. The German Euthanasia Association announced in November 2021 that they would only assist patients who have received the vaccination or recovered from the illness. So although you may be ready to depart from this world and cannot handle any additional side effects, Big Pharma still needs to be paid.
The group demanded that suffering patients follow Germany’s 2G rule that permitted them to deny access to the unvaccinated (geimpft) or those who have recovered (genesen). The mental gymnastics needed to create this rule stated that since patients will come in close contact with caregivers, “human closeness” could be a “breeding ground for coronavirus transmission.” The associated declared, “[T]he 2G rule applies in our association, supplemented by situation-related measures, such as quick tests before encounters in closed rooms.” The phrase “encounters in closed rooms” is a delicate way to word suicide. I suppose St. Peter is checking for vaccination passports at the pearly gates in line with the pope’s guidelines.
The German Constitution protects personal freedom and the right to choose how to die, but you may not choose how to live.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 5, 2022 | Sundance
In the lead-in to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all of the U.S. involvement in the country was operated by bureaucrats and politicians from the U.S. State Dept, CIA, Intelligence Community and Senate. The Pentagon played a far lesser supportive role.
As a consequence of that previous investment, the current U.S response to the Russian “special military operation” has been spearheaded by the same DoS officials, intelligence agencies and politicians. The Ukraine engagement is a political operation using NATO and western allies. As we saw in the Afghanistan withdrawal, the Pentagon is a tool for the politics.
The division between the two interests (Pentagon vs State Dept) surfaces most quickly and easily when things SNAFU, and the blame casting begins. That’s when the division becomes noticeable to the public. The important point to remember is this… despite the involvement of NATO in the current Ukraine response, it is not the Pentagon calling the shots, it’s the state dept.
Earlier today, Army Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee “[Ukraine] is a very protracted conflict.” Milley anticipates many months, if not years, of combat fighting inside Ukraine as Putin carves out the eastern side of the country permanently.
According to Milley, “I think it’s at least measured in years… this is a very extended conflict that Russia has initiated. I think NATO, the U.S., Ukraine and all of the allies and partners supporting Ukraine are going to be involved in this for quite some time,” he said. The nature of Milley’s remarks outlines what will likely become an insurgency/proxy war funded by the United States for years against Russia.
As much as JC Milley is a political figure, Milley is operating his role under the assumption and direction of what the State Dept is creating. As a consequence of that long-term conflict prediction, the Pentagon is recommending several new rotating military bases for U.S. troops in eastern Europe.
It is also critical to recognize what is not being said by those same DoS and U.S. intelligence officials. The absence is deafening. What is not being advanced is any discussion of a diplomatic resolution or negotiated settlement. Milley’s defense request is predicated on a position that no diplomatic solution will be advanced. This is a key part of both General Milley and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s testimony.
Ukraine cannot fight without the United States sending money and weapons. Combine that with Austin and Milley’s statements about Ukraine, and what you quickly see, albeit undiscussed in media, is that a long-term war is baked into this cake. The United States will not allow Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to enter negotiations with Vladimir Putin.
When we review western media statements about Putin not willing to enter “peace talks” with Zelenskyy, keep the testimony from Milley and Austin at the forefront of your mind.
Why would Putin enter any negotiations with Zelenskyy, knowing the U.S. position is to carry out a long-term insurgency war in Ukraine against Russian military forces? What would be the purpose of Putin talking with Zelenskyy when the U.S. is openly saying the Ukraine military will be used by the State Dept. to maintain a conflict against Russian forces?
Russian President Putin knows the only group he could negotiate with are in the United States. However, that truth would expose the puppet strings, so the United States government must play the pretend game.
The position of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a puppet to the U.S. State Dept and Intelligence Community interests, is inherent in the Pentagon position. If Zelenskyy was free to make decisions, Austin and Milley could not be so assured as to put a timeline on the Ukraine conflict.
This context becomes increasingly important as we look at how the media are positioning all resources to support a protracted war. Anyone who is not 100% pro war in Ukraine, for whatever length of time the DoS/IC determine is needed, is immediately cast as a Putin apologist.
This war emanated from the bowels of politics via U.S. political influence in Ukraine to the extreme. This level of U.S. involvement in Ukraine ultimately triggered Putin to say enough, and he started the “special military operation.” In many ways the operation is not so much against Ukraine – but more against the U.S. involvement in supporting Ukraine against Russia.
Because it started from political origins, the Ukraine conflict will continue to be run from the nerve center of U.S. politics, the U.S. State Dept, the U.S. Senate, and CIA operations. The actual Pentagon involvement will be transport and logistics for State Dept military operations.
Do you remember when the DoS Benghazi mission was attacked, and the Pentagon had no idea there was even a U.S. operational mission taking place in eastern Libya? That same “Operation Zero Footprint” disconnect is what I am describing above. It’s likely the Pentagon has very little idea what the State Department and CIA are doing in Ukraine right now.
This context is also why the propaganda around Ukraine in the United States has been so critical and important. We will see this level of propaganda continue so long as it is the DoS/CIA running the western response to the war.
What makes this conflict a little more interesting, is the need for the U.S. to control the information. We have seen the initial first phases of their control with Big Tech saying they will not permit anything that does not follow the official U.S. government narrative on social media.
Additionally, the State Department launching their own cyber-control division is an extension of this same intent. They are planning for the long-term usefulness of Ukraine as a proxy battle against Russia.
Websites like CTH, who talk honestly about the background of what is happening in Ukraine, may eventually need to start using coded language in order to share information. There are trillions at stake, and the people who control the events are not going to permit too much exposure.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 5, 2022 | Sundance
Sean Penn appears on Fox News with Sean Hannity to discuss their unity message that U.S. military forces should begin combat operations against Russia in Ukraine. The Hollywood actor follows a familiar intelligence community script complete with wardrobe to match the theme.
For those who have watched the process the U.S. govt and intelligence apparatus use to pull the American public into war, the repeating pattern visible in 2022 is transparent. If you don’t support the U.S. war effort, you’re a bad American or something. Also, pay no attention to the tens-of-thousands of illegal aliens pouring in through the undefended southern U.S. border, it’s the Ukraine borders that matter.
All the world is a stage…
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 5, 2022 | Sundance
Good news on the rebellion front creates tremors amid the dark overlords of globalism.
After Elon Musk purchased the largest single stake in Twitter, social media CEO Parag Agrawal announces SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk will be appointed to the company’s board of directors.
“I’m excited to share that we’re appointing @elonmusk to our board!” Agrawal tweeted. “Through conversations with Elon in recent weeks, it became clear to us that he would bring great value to our Board.” Musk is “both a passionate believer and intense critic of the service,” Agrawal added, “which is exactly what we need on Twitter, and in the boardroom, to make us stronger in the long-term.”
“Looking forward to working with Parag & Twitter board to make significant improvements to Twitter in coming months!” Musk tweeted. The news of Musk’s appointment comes after he took a 9.2 percent stake in Twitter on Monday, making him the company’s biggest shareholder. Sky News has a good recap of recent events. WATCH:
Rand Paul discusses the events.