From the attached report on climate change for March 2019 we have the two charts showing how much has the global temperature actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up about 30.0% from 1958 to February of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or twenty years.
The full 37 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data are used with out change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to compliment that plan will be a world wide disaster.
Published on Apr 22, 2019
The Yellow Vest movement is turning into a major confrontation demanding Macron leave office. The French police are now protesting after 28 officers have committed suicide so far in 2019. This is double the amount recorded at the same time last year. While the press tends to focus on complaints of a lack of resources, unpaid overtime, and inefficient management, they are not speaking about the social isolation the police are starting to experience as they defend the government against the people.
I have written before about the Nika Revolt of 532AD where the local police and troops refused to defend the emperor Justinian. He almost fled Constantinople until his wife directed him to call in an army which was not Greeks. They came into the city and slaughtered some 30,000 protesters. What the French police are experiencing is this very same conflict. This is why Brussels wants a European Army for they would have no conflict with the French people if they are not French. The police may yet turn against the French government and if that happens, then we have a French Revolution. The revolution in Ukraine turned when the police saw that Yanukovich brought in Russians to defend himself. Then and only then did the Ukrainian police turn against Yanukovich and he had to flee. This is standard developments throughout all historical civil unrest movements defining the line when crossed it becomes a revolution.
This paper is not meant to be a peer-reviewed work; but it is meant to give a foundation for a more serious study of the subject matter presented here which is of determining the basis of developing a global temperature. The key is the base which what is the base temperature of the planet and, of course, it is the solar radiation received from the sun. Therefore, the energy absorbed by the planet must equal the energy emitted by the planet and we can calculate this using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law the the result is called the blackbody temperature. The energy flux emitted by a blackbody is related to the fourth power of the body’s absolute temperature. In the case of the earth use means and averages that temperature is -18.8 degrees Celsius but wait the current temperature around 14.6 degrees Celsius today that is a difference of 33.4 degrees Celsius; where did that come from. The answer is that is the greenhouse effect. and at least 85% of that is form the water in the atmosphere making water the primary green house gas by far.
This paper has been written to show the read the basics of the science of determining the key variables that make up earth the temperature. What you will find is that the planet has been very stable over time and that its currently much cooler than it ever has been. The following chart is developed from ice core and is onlyu one of many that show the same thing.
There are three areas of interest.
1) The amount of thermal energy that reaches the planet from the sun.
2) The amount of thermal energy that is initially absorbed by the planet.
3) The process on the planet that ‘temporarily’ holds thermal energy on the planet.
In this paper I will give a frame work for determining all three aspects.
Part One, the blackbody temperature of the planet
Part Two, the planetary greenhouse effect
Part Three, the probable range of temperatures on the planet
NASA Table Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) April 2008
NASA Table Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) current to the date of this paper
The link below will allow you to download the paper, if you want, and at no cost.
Back in 2004 as my work on a PEM fuel cell research project wound down there were concerns building in the news that the various regulatory programs, both in the US and else ware, were adversely affecting energy production. This was a subject of which prior experiences to include the one winding down were familiar to me from work done when I worked at General Electric, first in their R&D labs near their main production facility in Schenectady, New York and later in Erie Pennsylvanian building Diesel Electric Locomotives. With some time now available it didn’t take long with the now well established web resources for me to acquire additional technical knowledge on this subject.
After tentative research started Al Gore’s documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” was released in 2006; this documentary was produced by Davis Guggenheim and it was a story about how the burning of fossil fuels were destroying the planet. It seemed to be targeted at young adults without the education to discern truth from fiction and it was very successful in achieving negative awareness on the subject. Unfortunately, the message in that documentary was not factually correct and appeared to be only an emotional appeal to support the regulation of Carbon Emissions’ (CO2) in some form of Carbon Tax. Governments always need more money and this seemed to be a way for them to achieve that end. Unfortunately, almost all our energy comes from carbon based fuels and the proposed taxes would significantly add to the cost of producing energy. Since cheap energy is the very heart of a modern industrial society this would have disastrous economic effects.
An interesting fact, Al Gore was one of the investors that had helped set up a Carbon Trading exchange in Chicago along with a young Barack Obama (on the board of the major investor The Joyce Foundation located in Chicago) that they named the Chicago Carbon Exchange CCX in 2003. When The House of Representatives bill HR 2454 (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) was not passed by the US Senate in 2009 the CCX exchange folded the following year, 2010. Gore has been very vocal on this subject and if HR 2454 had been passed by the US Congress Gore would have become very wealth; so the question is was his involvement because he believed what he was promoting or because what he was promoting would have made him very wealthy?
By 2007 it was becoming clear that there were holes in the theory (Anthropogenic Climate Change) that was used to justify the reduction of carbon and that changed my view that this might be a real issue into the realization that this was going to be very bad and unnecessary if HR 2454, or any like bill, actually implemented. By 2008 this project was taking up a significant amount of my time and after the financial collapse, almost full time for a couple of years. During this time a method was found to model the world’s climate that appeared to work; and by 2012 it was virtually certain that this model was showing what was actually going on in the climate at the macro level.
This book is a summary of almost a decade of technical work which started in 2004, ten years ago. Although my background is neither physics nor chemistry those subjects and others such as climatology are part of my technical background as well as mathematics and statistics. Then forty years of experience as an engineer, researcher and inventor, much in the field of energy, does allow one to study and make observations on the movements of things especially when they have very obvious patterns. This book is based on observations and modeling and that is certainly something that someone with an economics and engineering background can do even without a PhD. But I should add here that this is not a book in the normal sense; it’s more a series of discussions taken from various papers and studies that I’ve written over the last decade.
This is a graphic of the energy flows in the Earths atmosphere the represents the energy flows that keep the Earths Temperature Stable that I created after I understood what was happening. Will Happer was instrumental in my education on the “real” physics involved!
I have tried to put the works in an order that makes sense but since this is a composite there is some duplication in a few places.
Predicting what will happen tomorrow or years from now has never been easy, and never will be since there are always the messy and unforeseen things that get in the way. But having said that when a forecast is desired and a model or simulation is constructed and there is sufficient relevant information available, it may be possible to construct a model that works — as long as conditions do not change. Finding information that correlates into causal relations is the key to the success of any model; but it’s also very easy to fall into the trap of correlation but no cause and effect as data streams often move together but for many and varied reasons, some of which are not causal.
For example we have a road coming from the south going north turning to the west and entering a gap in some mountains that are in the way. There is also a railroad line coming from the east and going west passing though the same gap for the same reason and they run parallel to each other as that is the best way through the mountains. For the time they are both in the gap they run together and in the same direction so that a train and a car could be traveling next to each other and maybe even at the same speed through the entire gap. An observer in the mountains could say after observing both moving together and in the same direction that both were going to the same place. That observer could not know that only a few miles up the gap the road and the track would go their separate way.
We have the same situation with anthropogenic climate change where from the 1970’s until just a few years ago when both CO2, as measured by NOAA, and global temperatures, as measured by NASA seemed to be going up at a similar rate. The issue wasn’t that they were or weren’t moving together but whether it was coincidence or correlation with cause and effect. Models that are designed and built around incomplete data no matter how well indented to not work once the conditions change. During this period it is a fact that both moved together, just like the car and train, but before then and ever since, they were going their own separate ways.
Since all have to agree that a model is only as good as the forecasts it makes and therefore the current global temperature reductions which are not shown in any of the IPCC climate models means that there is something wrong or something missing. In this book we will show a different way of looking at climate that gives significantly better predictive results. This alternative model is significantly more accurate than that of the IPCC models and is therefore by definition a better model. The reason this is so is that there are many problems with the assumptions used to build the IPCC climate models which are at the heart of the anthropogenic climate change debate, and the debate is far from settled.
The balance of this book is showing how the IPCC climate assumptions are incomplete and how when those assumptions are modified that a model can be designed that actually works. This is original research based on information easily found on the web. It is the opinion of the author that this model is valid and has correctly identified the key variables.
Since this book was written I have made some revisions but the basic principles are the same.
The link below will allow you to download the book, if you want, and at no cost.
The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, is objecting to France’s desired changes to the EU budget. France wants aid with the inclusion of the objective to “stabilize” the economies within the Eurozone, whereby the Netherlands wants all funding to be limited to furthering “competitiveness and convergence.” The Netherlands contributes the most to the EU, and far more than it receives. This only illustrates once more that the Eurozone is far from one big family. The cultural differences remain and always will. They will not vanish as a matter of law. The only thing that will allow that to happen over time will be a common language, as took place in the United States. Then and only then did all the various cultures begin to integrate
A massive defeat for the left-wing loons in Alberta Canada now means half the Canadian provinces are aligned against Justin’s rainbow-socks coalition and disastrous climate agenda. Apparently having a common sense approach now means ‘right-of-center‘.
CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) – A right-of-center party swept to power in Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta on Tuesday and attacked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s efforts to fight climate change, raising tension just months ahead of a federal election.
The United Conservative Party (UCP) of Jason Kenney, which had led in the polls for months, crushed the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) government of Rachel Notley amid frustration over the economy and a beleaguered energy industry.
Kenney’s victory means governments in five of the 10 provinces now oppose Trudeau’s plans to combat global warming, which look set to be a major theme of the October election. (more)
The real-world effect of having an anti-business outlook is starting to have a real impact, and not just on massive corporations. As Manny from Ottawa points out, even the smaller Canadian firms are giving up and heading to the more pro-business U.S.A. In this example 240 Canadian jobs are moving…
(Truro, Nova Scotia) […] “Earlier today, we informed our employees that Tarkett North America will be closing our manufacturing plant in Truro, Nova Scotia, effective July 16, 2019,” the company said Tuesday afternoon in an email to Mills, Colchester County Mayor Christine Blair and other stakeholders.
“As one of our valued stakeholders, we wanted to share that this was not an easy decision and it is not a reflection of the caliber of work done by our Truro team,” the company said in a statement issued through the National Consulting Group.
“A business decision has been made and our manufacturing operations will be relocating to Dalton, Georgia.”
The company has sister operations in Georgia and Mills said one of the reasons he has heard for the move is to improve operational efficiencies. (more)
COMMENT: Skeptics who believe a border wall will not stop illegals from entering the United States may want to look at what’s happening in Hungary.
On the day its border fence was completed, the influx of illegals entering Hungary went down from 6,353 per day to 870 the next day. For the remainder of that month, illegal border crossings were steadily below 40 per day, officials said.
“They don’t even try,” a local border guard told The Daily Caller News Foundation. “We haven’t had a single Muslim migrant in six months.” Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s pledge to stop illegals from flowing into the country appears to be a spectacular success.
Hungary’s 96-mile long, 14-foot-tall, double-line fence includes several layers of razor-wire capable of delivering electric shocks. The barrier features cameras, heat sensors, and loudspeakers ready to tell migrants they’re about to break Hungarian law if they as much as touch the fence, the DC report said.
Nearly every police officer in Hungary is part of a rotation to monitor the border fence at all times. Temporary military bases house the police while they do their rotation. Additionally, Hungary will train and pay more than 1,000 volunteers to deploy as “border hunters”.
Illegals who are caught are arrested and dropped off on the Serbian side of the fence. They don’t get a chance to apply for asylum unless they do so at a “transit zone” where they are held in housing containers while their cases get processed, the report said.
In September 2016, thousands of migrants streamed across the border every day as they made their way north to Austria, Germany, and Scandinavia. “It was an invasion,” Laszlo Toroczkai, the mayor of Asotthalom, told the Daily Caller. “Illegal immigration is a crime in a normal country. It’s not a normal thing to break into a country.”
“By mid-year, it was well beyond 100,000 people who came across”, said Zoltan Kovacs, a spokesman for the Hungarian government. “You should at least have the ability to handle what’s going on.” Kovacs added, “You might not like it, it’s not a nice thing, but… the only way to stop illegal border crossings is first building a fence, man it, equip it, and also, in parallel, build up your capabilities in terms of legal confines, legal circumstances to be able to handle what is coming.”
It’s no surprise the mainstream U.S. media refuses to report this story to the American public Can you imagine how support for a Southern border wall would spike?
REPLY: The people who claim Trump’s wall will not work just listen to the propaganda to defeat Trump. The entire objective is to be able to say he failed in 2020. He made a campaign promise to build the wall, and for that reason the Democrats must defeat the wall regardless of the truth. Romans built a wall between England and Scotland to prevent the Scots from raiding Roman settlements. The world’s earliest known civilization was also one of the first to build a defensive wall during the 21st century BC. The ancient Sumerian rulers constructed a massive fortified barrier to keep out the Amorites, who were a group of nomadic tribesmen who were pillaging their settlements.
The “Great Wall of Gorgon” was a 121-mile rampart that extended from the southern coast of the Caspian Sea to the Elburz Mountains in what is now Iran. It is often called the Great Wall of Alexander the Great or “Alexander’s Barrier” that prevented the barbarians from invading from the north. It was most likely constructed by the Sasanian Persians sometime around the 5th century AD, and remains one of the longest walls of antiquity.
Of course, there is China’s legendary Great Wall which stretches from the Gobi Desert to the North Korean border. It was constructed on the fortifications that began during in the 3rd century BC, and it was intended to keep the Mongols out. The completed wall was once the largest manmade object in the world. The Mongol leader Altan Khan bypassed the wall and raided Beijing in 1550.
Naturally, we should not forget the Berlin Wall, modern history’s most infamous wall, which was erected in 1961 to keep people in rather than out. More than 100 people were eventually killed while trying to escape through the maze of 12-foot walls, guard towers, and electrified fences. It stood for almost 29 years before East German authorities finally opened it on November 9th, 1989.
There are many examples of walls throughout history and the world.
The truth at any cost lowers all other costs
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