The Crisis is Turkey


President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is finding his dreams of an all-powerful resurrection of the Ottoman Empire are falling apart. Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place.

Erdogan has sent the Turkish economy into a downward spiral for some time. Its soaring inflation has exceeded 100% and rising debt-to-GDP of about 70% under President Recep Erdogan’s regime has been a growing problem. As central banks pumped money into the system over the past decade, nations like Turkey and other emerging market economies used the opportunity to raise more and more “cheap” debt to boost their productivity. Turkey has attracted capital from Europe seeking higher yields because of the negative interest rates policy of the ECB. Now we have a crisis in Turkey that is also the result of Draghi’s Quantitative Easing that drove capital to Turkey and FAILED to revived the European economy.

Erdogan’s dream of restoring the Ottoman Empire is no joke. It has been European money seeking higher yield that kept him in power. It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire just as the dream of the reestablishment of the old Roman Empire as was the desire behind Napoleon and Hitler. The days of Empire Building are long gone and Erdogan has been living in the past. His goal was to expand his country’s military operations in Syria and this, he hoped, would be the first step as with Hitler’s invasion of Poland.

Nevertheless, the Turkish lira collapse and the expensive dollar have been conspiring against him reflecting his disastrous management of the economy and the collapse in confidence among the Turkish people. There remain serious questions about elections in Turkey being rigged to keep him in power. Therefore, on the one hand, Erdogan is attracted to dealing with Russia who is on the opposite side of the game board with Qatar. Erdogan has the free markets moving against him and he is more likely to turn to Russia than the West to retain personal power and the free markets show what most likely the real sentiment of the Turkish people was for the fake elections. Consequently, Erdogan turned to Qatar because he was desperate for money to retain personal power. If he loses the support of his military, then they will side with the people and Erdogan’s head may end up on a spike. Qatar will discover they are dealing with someone who will not be loyal to them either. Yet, the financial markets are working against Erdogan and as the crisis continues to evolve in the months ahead as $15 billion will not reverse the crisis, Turkey can hardly afford military adventures. Erdogan will be more likely to turn to Russia when he cannot retain power otherwise. He can blame the USA all he wants publicly, but the free markets are conspiring against him and that includes his own people.

Many European institutions rushed into Turkey and bought their bonds at 20%. Many Spanish banks had capital was invested in Turkish bonds to get the higher yield to the tune of on average 20%+. Based on the phone calls, there are way too many institutions who invested into Turkey. They simply assumed that NO government defaults because the powers that be will always bail out the bondholders. This time the IMF is really powerless. They can make some noise and others will say the crisis is subsiding. However, this is just talking. There is nobody who can save Turkey at this point as long as Erdogan remains in power. Qatar will discover that Turkey is a bottomless pit. They will try to now ease the crisis with words because of the extensive foolishness of banks and pension funds who bought Turkey bonds to try to get yield.

The fall in the Turkish lira has also benefited the Syrian Army, which launched an offensive on the last large mercenary fortress in Idlib. Turkey was actually against the offensive because it feared that it would fall to Syria and that is against Erdogan’s dreams of taking more territory. What is not really looked at internationally is the plain fact that Turkey does not have its own arms industry. Erdogan needs arms to be imported and as the lira crisis materialized, his Turkish operation Olive branch and shield of the Euphrates in Syria become rapidly too expensive. Back in January 2018, the Siyasi Haber newspaper reported that an estimated $400 million was being spent on Operation Olive Branch alone. Erdogan has spent over $1 billion so far in his attempt to conquer that region of Syria.

Instead of building his economy and benefiting the people of Turkey, Erdogan has been more interested in resurrecting the Ottoman Empire. It has been his mismanagement of the economy and his hostile attitude even to Greece that is behind the Turkish Lira Crisis. He has lost the confidence of his own people! August has been our target for the crisis and so far the computer has been correct on that score. However, volatility will remain high going into October and then we see it will return as the new year begins. Qatar coming to the rescue should help support the lira for now. Those who are wise had better sell their Turkish bonds and step oy of this trade. August should prove to be only a temporary low for the lira

Why is Asia Rising Against the West


Some people have written in and asked why we have issued a report that shows how and when China will displace the USA and the West as the Financial Capital of the world. Let me explain some interesting facts. If we look at the top ten cities for tourism, you will find that the half is in Asia. The world’s most visited city is actually Hong Kong. The top two are Asia as well.

 

  1. Hong Kong – 26.69m visitors a year
  2. Bangkok, Thailand – 18.73m
  3. London, UK – 18.58m
  4. Singapore – 16.87m
  5. Paris, France – 15.02m
  6. Macau – 14.31m
  7. Dubai, UAE – 14.2m
  8. Istanbul, Turkey – 12.41m
  9. New York City, US – 12.3m
  10. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – 12.15m

Even Macau, which is an autonomous territory that sits on the south coast of the Far East’s superpower China, is, according to a new study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), set to overtake Qatar as the richest place in the world by 2020. Macau was the last European colony in Asia. On April 13th, 1987, Portugal and China announced the Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration – in which it was said that Macau, having been a Portuguese outpost for more than 400 years, would become “Chinese” on December 20th, 1999. It did, but not entirely. In the case of Macau, it was first leased to Portugal back in 1557 and eventually became a full actual colony in 1887.

Macau is also one of the most densely populated places on earth. It is only 11.8 square miles of territory with a population of 650,900 residents. This equates to 55,454 people per square mile. The second most densely populated country is Monaco, which is a mere 0.78 square miles of land yet it has a population of 38,400 people (49,236 people per square mile).

So to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth. The more we move to try to save the collapse of socialism, it is like Erdogan refusing to accept responsibility for the collapse of the Turkish lira.

(BECAUSE OF INTERNATIONAL TAXATION – We have physically printed editions available as well as Digital Copy for those who cannot order physical copies from overseas due to tariffs

Romanians Out Again over Government Corruption


Once again, tens of thousands of Romanians have taken to the streets demanding the end of corruption in government. At least 450 people were injured in clashes with the police who are still defending the government against the people. We are looking at a worldwide epidemic of corruption in government that has known no bounds. This is part of the very reason why Trump was able to beat every career politician. But like Erdogan, those in power refuse to ever admit that they are the reason for the political changes.

Unfortunately, in the United States, we not only have the police defending the government, we also have the press like CNN, Washington Post, and the New York Times. All they do is try to overthrown Trump instead of looking at the system and WHY he was elected to begin with. They are all supporting the inherent corruption because they like things as they are. What we are witnessing in Romania is also unfolding in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Malaysia, and even in Britain. This is a worldwide political change in trend and we really have to begin to look at the trend and not just the face of Trump

Iran and & Turkey Ripe for Revolution?


A Revolution is brewing not just in Turkey, but also in Iran. More than 100,000 people have taken to the streets chanting death to the dictator. The currency has simply collapsed as it moves into hyperinflation. Once again, as we see this take place, CONFIDENCE in the government is collapsing. This is the key to revolution. Once the people lose CONFIDENCE, then the game changes. That does not mean in either the case of Turkey of Iran that the government will just go into the light voluntarily. In both cases, the governments are really dictatorships and they will NOT relinquish power willingly anymore that we see in Venezuela. As long as the police and the army support dictators, then regime change WILL NOT come peacefully. In both cases, they will even resort to creating wars as a distraction to retain power.

The more chaos that unfolds, the stronger the US dollar becomes. Capital will ALWAYS flee from wherever the war unfolds. In this case, do not consider that these governments will simply surrender power voluntarily. They will both turn toward Russia for help and portray their political crisis as a CIA plot. That is rather absurd but it will surface anyway. This is standard behavior whenever a currency moves into hyperinflation as the CONFIDENCE in the immediate government collapses. This is WHY the people need guns. Take the guns away from the people and there is never an ability to defend against a government which is desperately trying to retain power as we see in Venezuela

Back to School in California….


Things have become a little more challenging for kids this year….

Global Warming / Climate Change Hoax – Dr. Roy Spencer


Published on Jul 10, 2014

The climate change hoax, is real. Global Warming in terms of the government and IPCC’s agenda is fake. The IPCC is made up of 72 people… The NIPCC who dissent from the IPCC, 32,000 scientists and climate change analysts oppose the political agenda created for the purpose of expanding regulations and power of the government, subsequently increasing taxes at every direction, to expand government further, around the world. Why? It’s simple…. Karl Marx, 1848, when he created the concept of progressivism,,, “to transfer wealth and power to the state”…….. sums that up. NIPCC (Non Government International Panel on Climate Change http://www.nipccreport.org Video Credit, Heartland Foundation, via 9th International Conference on Climate Change http://www.heartland.org

Happy Birthday President Clinton – Donations Welcome


I have NEVER seen any former president send out this type of solicitation. If you have any spare change, donations are always welcome – in the millions please!

Electric Cars or Else – Says Brussels by 2020


From 2020, European carmakers MUST  comply with stricter EU regulations. On average, only 95 grams of CO2 emissions per kilometer drove are permitted per car produced. If the output is higher than that, there will be drastic fines due. The leader seems to be BMW. I bought an I8 myself which is a hybrid so it has also a gas engine in the rear but electric in the front. You really can’t beat electric for speed off the line. It will really pin you back in the seat. I must say, being a sports car advocate, it is one of the best cars I have ever owned and a love it. (I do not own BMW stock).

Nevertheless, German companies are finding these requirements are unreasonable to meet 95 grams of CO2 emissions. That means the consumption of fuel must be around four liters per 100 kilometers. That is a very major objective imposed by this theory of Global Warming. The market for electric cars is really confined to Europe for regulation purposes, but the number one market is China where electricity prices are the lowest.

There are no combustion cars that comply with the European standard. German carmakers to produce sedans, but they cannot avoid building cars that consume more than four liters of fuel on average and therefore they cannot meet these higher CO2 emissions standards of 95 grams per kilometer.

Clearly, European car manufacturers have no choice but to produce electric cars. The fine per car that does not meet the standard will be around 13,o00 to 11,000 euros. Every German car maker will face hundreds of millions of euros in fines. The problem that the government has completely FAILED to take into consideration is the availability of electricity to fuel cars. Many are starting to look at the problem that even assuming cars can be plugged in, the demand for electricity may exceed the capacity to produce it.

The installation of an electric power station at every parking lot will be expensive, to begin with. However, if every car is plugged into the power grid, then the concern becomes will we simply shift the CO2 emissions from cars to power plants? The only way to avoid that is to create more nuclear power plants, and then we have many environmentalists objecting to that solution.

Of course, the world can go back to bicycles. Amsterdam has so many people commuting on bikes, it is astonishing. There are parking garages at the train station where people leave their bikes overnight and commute home by train. Here is a picture of a parking lot for bikes in Amsterdam. You will never see this anywhere else. Of course, back in the 1980s to early 1990s, there were still more bikes on the road in Beijing than there were cars. That has now changed dramatically as well.

Bikes are certainly a solution, but it has its limitations for age and disabilities. Then there is weather as well, which conspires against the commuter using bikes

California tackles THE BIG ISSUES


Published on Aug 5, 2018

The electrical grid is inadequate. The roads are third-world. Public sector unions have bankrupted what was once the richest state in the nation. Thank God Cali has got its priorities straight

Is SO2 the Real Threat – not CO2?


It has snowed in Alberta, Canada on August 1st in the dead of summer. Such strange events like this have not been common. Europe is burning from heat when buildings do not even have air conditioning because they never needed it. The concern that we are headed into a volcanic weather event really needs our attention. Volcanos emit C02, but they are a major source of something far worse – SO2. We have all heard of the London Fog. However, in 1952, some 4,000 people in Britain died from breathing in the fog.

The London Fog of 1952 resulted from burning coal excessively because it was a bitterly cold winter. This produced sulfur dioxide in the lower atmosphere, which may have reached 7 times normal levels. This became the perfect storm. The air was stagnant and there no real wind. This combined with high humidity to create a very dense fog. Once the sulfur dioxide was trapped by the fog combining with the high humidity of water vapor, this deadly combination produced sulfuric acid, which many call today acid rain. Despite all the claims of CO2, it is really SO2 that can become lethal.

We have learned about SO2 and have been reducing human emissions since the London Fog of 1952. Despite the constant focus of cars and CO2, it is Power plants and motor vehicles that burn sulfur-containing fuels, especially diesel, that create SO2. It is the Sulfur dioxide that can react in the atmosphere to form fine particles of acrid rain that pose the largest health risks to the atmosphere. CO2 does not have the same effect. This is what the major movement has been for clean air – reducing SO2.

Volcanos emit a lot of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) which smells like rotten eggs. Humans also contribute by burning coal and other fossil fuels which are the largest source of sulfur dioxide from human activities. However, volcanoes and forest fires are THE major natural contributors. What is important to understand is that sulfur dioxide is a pollutant that does impact the climate. Once SO2 is in the atmosphere, it can easily form sulfate ions. These are negatively charged particles made of up of sulfur and oxygen atoms. Since they are negatively charged, sulfate ions combine with water vapor in the atmosphere and then form small droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4). You may hear of this as acid rain. CO2 does not act in this manner.

When a volcano erupts. we then see huge amounts of sulfur dioxide are released into the stratosphere which will then convert to sulfates. There is a qualification needed here because sulfates formed at lower altitudes are removed from the atmosphere in just a few weeks through settling and precipitation. However, the SO2 emission from volcanos reach the upper bounds of the atmosphere and create aerosols that are mainly tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that then stay in the atmosphere for about two years. These SO2 droplets reflect incoming solar radiation back into space yet absorb both incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. The net result, is simply that SO2 reduces the amount of energy reaching the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Hence, we get global cooling of the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface.

Consequently, it is the volcanic eruptions are of considerable impact on global climate and are a proven fact rather than theory as is the case with CO2. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a cooling trend lasted through 1993. This was attributed to the sulfuric acid aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere. Historically, there was a global cooling which followed the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The worst such event was the “Year without a summer” which followed the eruption of Tambora in 1815.

The other school of thought has been where many scientists believe that the continuous emission of sulfates would counter any greenhouse gas theory of CO2. As volcanos tend to erupt when the energy output of the sun declines as has been taking place since 2015, we are experiencing uneven concentrations of sulfates around the world. This may be a major issue if turning places that are normally warm to cold and cold to warm. The problem with SO2 is that it remains in the atmosphere much longer and hence the continued trend of erupting volcanos can seriously alter the climate for even more than a decade ahead.