Posted originally on Feb 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Tariff threats have dampened homebuilding confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped five points from January into February to a reading of 42, the lowest reading in five months.
Builders were initially hopeful that the Trump administration would remove some red tape regulations to streamline the process. However, these tariffs are guaranteed to cause the price of construction to soar, especially in relation to steel, aluminum, and lumber. “With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz wrote in a statement.
Trump believes the US can simply produce everything domestically with little pushback. “We don’t need their lumber, because we have our own forests,” the US president famously said at Davos. Yet, the US relies on Canada for at least a quarter of its lumber. Spring building season is now coinciding with when these 25% tariffs may be implemented.
Builders are also concerned about mortgage rates, with Freddie Mac showing the average fixed 30-year at around 7% at the time of this writing. The low rates seen during COVID are not returning. Inventory across the US has increased but demand has waned. The NAHB reported that 26% of builders cut home prices this month after 30% of builders were forced to do so in January.
These tariff games have backfired as businesses across sectors cannot accurately gauge the cost of materials.
Posted originally on the CTH on February 18, 2025 | Sundance
According to Senator Markwayne Mullin, the Senate is anticipated to hold a confirmation vote for U.S. Secretary of Commerce nominee Howard Lutnick later today.
Immediately following the Lutnick vote, in this executive session of the Senate, Senator Mullin anticipates the cloture vote to end debate on FBI Director Kash Patel will also follow. That would put the full senate vote for Patel’s confirmation on a timeline for final vote Thursday.
Posted originally on the CTH on February 18, 2025 | Sundance
A high-level diplomatic meeting between USA and Russia has not happened in more than three years. The first goal was to figure out how to talk to each other again, what processes to use and what the consultation mechanism would be for when peace negotiations would begin. That ‘deconfliction’ goal seems to have been achieved.
Additionally, in a very positive sign, both the USA team and the Russian team agreed to return to normal embassy operations, in diplomatic speak “missions,” in both Moscow and Washington DC, that includes staffing support to reestablish contacts and communications. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff spoke to reporters after their meeting with the Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia.
Pay close attention to the specific words Marco Rubio uses at 14:40 of the video, in the bigger of the big pictures, that is the goal of President Trump and President Putin. WATCH:
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – […] The U.S. team was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz. The Russian negotiating delegation included Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the U.S. team agreed to establish “a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship with the objective of taking steps necessary to normalize the operation of our respective diplomatic missions.” Rubio told the Associated Press the two sides agreed to restore embassy staffing as part of this normalization.
The two sides also agreed to appoint “high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all sides,” Bruce said, plus to “lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine.”
“The parties to today’s meetings pledge to remain engaged to make sure the process moves forward in a timely and productive manner,” Bruce added. (read more)
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