Sunday Talks: Peter Navarro -vs- Jake Tapper…


White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNN to debate economic policy with Jake Tapper. As customary Tapper attempts to use the Multinational Big AG talking points to identify farmers as victims.

♦The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.623% Wednesday for less than one hour; momentarily below the 2-year bond rate of 1.634%. The cause was a rapid influx of foreign capital, mostly from the EU (due to negative interest rates), into the U.S. to secure a return. This is not comparable to the historic ‘bond rate inversion’.

♦The biggest fallacy pushed in this interview, YET AGAIN, surrounds price impacts on Chinese imports. Tapper takes the talking points of the Wall Street multinationals, and their paid think-tanks, to push an empirically false assertion of the U.S. consumer paying for tariffs on China. Here’s the easiest refutation of that nonsense:

  • The Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs have been in place for two years.
  • The 25% tariff on $250 billion Chinese goods have been in place over a full year.
  • The current inflation rate (Consumer Price Indexis only 1.4%.

(Bureau of Economic Analysis – Personal Income and Consumer Price Index)

If the tariffs on China were impacting consumers, inflation would be much higher. In fact the exact opposite is happening. Because the protectionist Chinese and EU currency manipulation hits *ALL* imports, including non-tariff products, we are actually importing deflation.

Sunday Talks: Larry Kudlow -vs- Chuck Todd…


National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on NBC with Chuck Todd to debate the issues surrounding current trade and economic policy.  While Todd is obviously annoying, Kudlow makes two important points:

  1.  The Q3 CapEx (capital expenditure) spending reflects a domestic energy sector investment pause related to the dropped cost of oil. A fluctuation related to extraction costs and projected finished product price. [Energy companies pause on low price.]
  2. The Sept. “Next Step” tariff delay relates to pre-contracted prices of holiday goods with the import price attached to lower dollar value at the time of contract. The delay allows the arrival of product without price impact. If products were determined with current valuations the current arrival price would have been lower (offsetting tariffs).

Hong Kong Protest Movement Spokesperson Explains Purpose and Intents…


Hong Kong movement spokesperson Sunny Cheung explains what the protests are about, and what the movement hopes to achieve.   Mr. Cheung explains the protesters do not believe in the communist idea, and/or the larger communist ideology; hence their efforts to reach out to the U.S. for support.

More protests and rallies are scheduled for this weekend.

Germany Promises Lengthy Duration of Low Interest Rates – Laments Lack of Private Investment…


For all intents and purposes Germany is the EU, because German economic policy dictates the outcomes of all EU economic policy.  So as the EU promises to engage in more central bank monetary printing (quantitative easing) simultaneously Germany promises to keep negative interest rates floating as long as possible. [EU Parliament pictured below]

Yes, the EU is in serious structural economic trouble; and that is likely the real reason why quivering Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to exit the political stage before the larger communal catches on.

Within the remarks by German Finance Minister Scholz it is the lamentation about the lack of investment into their grand collective economic scheme where you find the economic dissonance, and ultimately the hilarious punch lines:

BERLIN (Reuters) – German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Saturday that he expected interest rates to remain very low for “the next few years”, adding that companies should seize the opportunity of near-zero borrowing costs to boost private sector investment.

The European Central Bank has already signaled even more monetary stimulus for the euro zone economy, hoping to arrest a downward spiral that could lead to an economic recession.

Asked by a member of the public during a government open day about his view on the outlook for interest rates, Scholz said: “I also believe that the time of higher interest rates can come up every now and then, but that will not happen in the next few years because of central bank policies.”

Then comes the real kicker of a comment… the part where the German political class admit what is happening: President Trump is kicking their collective asses; yet few within the audience recognize exactly what Olaf Scholz is saying.

“What I would wish for is more investments by the private sector,” Scholz said, pointing to a much higher willingness of companies and investors in the United States to put fresh money into new projects or business ideas.  “My wish is that we also achieve such a cultural change here,” Scholz said. (link)

So much multi-layered economic dissonance, it is quite amazing to think about how this mindset is driving economic and monetary policy over such a large population.

First, the reality of President Trump’s trade policy demanding reciprocity is the wrench in the EU machine.  The EU is a protectionist trade system with one-way tariffs and carefully crafted non-trade barriers designed to keep position as an exporter, and limit access to their market.

The historic cornerstone of this trade system to benefit the EU was the Marshall Plan; to apply tariffs on U.S. manufactured goods as a way to finance the EU rebuilding after World War II.   Seventy-five years later that same unidirectional benefit still exists. This parasitic trade policy is what President Trump is changing.

Second, it is silly to watch the German finance minister lament the lack of investment into their economic system when these same politicians advance policies like: The Paris Climate Treaty, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; in combination with high domestic tax policies against corporations and ultra-left-wing social benefits that necessitate the need for those high tax policies.

Gee, no-one wants to invest in Germany?… Go figure!

There is nothing the EU and China can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile.

The more a nations’ economy is dependent on exports, the more exposure they have to the inherent downsides of de-globalization. U.S. multinational companies that are invested in these nations will lose their investment over time; some rapidly. This will keep the stock market volatile, yet on Main Street USA the economy is thriving.

President Donald Trump has purposefully stalled the process of globalization, and is resetting global supply chains. This is bringing massive amounts of wealth back into the United States.

In essence President Trump is engaged in a process of: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshall plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).

.

These remarks from Germany are the perfect backdrop for this interview as a reminder.

The “ECB” is the European Central Bank.  The “QE” is quantative easing (printing more €uros).

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China Shifts Purchase Priorities From Manufacturing Materials to Food…


An interesting article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) highlights how China is shifting their procurement priority from minerals used in manufacturing (cobalt, copper) to the acquisition of food and agriculture products.

The impact is being felt throughout Africa, where mining companies are shutting down operations because Chinese demand no longer exists.

Articles like this highlight the ancillary impacts of a weakened Chinese economy.

Despite the proclamations by Beijing about their ability to withstand the withdrawal of the U.S. as a primary customer for manufactured goods, reality shows they cannot.

There is a confluence of events all leading to radical changes just below the surface.  China has been burning cash to subsidize industries impacted by U.S. tariffs.  Simultaneously Beijing has lowered the value of their currency in an effort to eliminate the tariff impact in the cost of their finished goods. However, as the ideological economic conflict between the U.S. and China continues, Beijing cannot hold their position indefinitely.

[…]  A decelerating construction boom in China also has led to a decline in demand for copper while Beijing’s move to raise standards for electric vehicles qualifying for subsidies is depressing the market for cobalt.

An economic slowdown in some African countries is seen as tied to China’s economic slowdown, accelerated by the tariff battle. (link)

Countries that attached their economy to purchase agreements with China over the last 20 years became dependent on those exports.  As China slows or stops their purchases those dependent economies are now at risk.

[…] Martyn Davies, managing director of emerging markets and Africa at Deloitte, said China’s demand for commodities has underpinned Africa’s growth for 20 years.

“Any commodity-exporting economy’s growth model has been underpinned by China’s demand for commodities in the last generation,” Davies said.

“This in itself has resulted in complacency in many commodity exporting countries because if you had China growing at 7 or 8 per cent, you don’t need to struggle. “Unfortunately,” Davies said, “the world has changed.”  (link)

And now China’s biggest weakness starts to surface.  A country that cannot feed its own population even during the best of times, is now facing a downturn in economic and employment activity while the need to import food remains.

[…] analysts say that while countries that export cobalt, copper and iron ore will be hardest hit as Beijing – the major buyer of Africa’s hard commodities – diversifies the sourcing of its imports during the trade war, opportunities are opening up for exporters of soft commodities, such as agricultural products. (link)

There comes a time in the life of a panda when bamboo is no-longer taken for granted.

Trump vs. China: Bold on Trade, Meek on Hong Kong Human Rights?


Published on Aug 16, 2019

Has the United States, in the era of Trump, lost its global moral leadership? President Donald Trump levies tariffs on China and talks tough about a new trade deal, but says little about the very public crackdown on protestors in Hong Kong. While he’s been bold on trade, this week he caved on his threat to invoke higher tariffs in September. Critics say the timing makes him look meek on human rights. After this video was recorded, Trump repositioned, appearing to link human rights to a trade deal, by Tweeting: “Of course China wants to make a deal. Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!” Bill Whittle Now brings conservative analysis to news of the day five times each week thanks to the Members who fund its production. If you think the world needs more reasoned thought, civil dialogue and time-tested principles, perhaps you should be one of us. Join now at https://BillWhittle.com/register/

 

President Trump Notes Rashida Tlaib…


When a woman marries her uncle: (1) her husband is her grandmothers son; (2) her daughter is her first cousin; and (3) her mother-in-law is also her “grandmother.”

Keep this in mind as you review:

Rashida Tlaib

@RashidaTlaib

Rashida Tlaib

@RashidaTlaib

My sity wanted to pick figs w/ me. I broke down reading this & worry every single day after I won for my family’s safety. My cousin was texting me which photo of @IlhanMN & I they should put on a welcoming poster when I heard the news. I couldn’t tell her.https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/rashida-tlaibs-family-disappointed-not-surprised-israeli-ban?fbclid=IwAR0oJQbMc2tSiSQTCKS9fN649cHyO7chI-yWVvFCovrWtwDs39qIAX9w7Tw 

Rashida Tlaib

@RashidaTlaib

“When asked about Donald Trump and his repeated attacks on her granddaughter, she brushed off the question. “I don’t know him,” she said. “I don’t care.”https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/meet-rashida-tlaibs-grandma-who-wouldnt-be-proud-of-a-granddaughter-like-that/2019/08/16/f90b055e-bf97-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html#click=https://t.co/w07SuOGnpI 

Meet Rashida Tlaib’s grandma: ‘Who wouldn’t be proud of a granddaughter like that?’

Muftiyah Tlaib lives in the same house in the same West Bank village she has called home since 1974.

washingtonpost.com

5,283 people are talking about this

More — Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…


President Trump is having dinner tonight with Tim Cook, aka “Tim Apple.”  This dinner comes on the heels of USTR Lighthizer announcing a postponement of “next step” 10 percent tariffs against Chinese manufactured products…  Interestingly, the one of the product groups within the delay is personal computers…. Interestingly, Tim Apple was going to launch production assembly of the Macintosh personal computer in China.

To say that Tim Cook has been attempting to define and quantify the strength of President Trump’s tariff position against China would be an understatement.  Even before president-elect Trump took office, Tim Cook was engaged on this specific aspect.

As a responsible steward for the brand, the engagement by “Tim Apple” makes lots of sense. The engaged approach by CEO Cook is what all multinationals should do.  Advocate for their interests; keep an open mind to aspects that are larger than self-interest; keep a respectful seat at the table; and be a responsible steward for his American shareholders.

Ultimately Tim Cook is recognizing President Trump will advance those policies that benefit Main Street and he will avoid policies that do not benefit Main Street. Trump’s Main Street economic patriotism is likely a paradigm shift for Cook; amid a career experience of politicians advancing Wall Street interests.  Hence, the constant evaluation.

Meanwhile, the strength of Main Street employment continues to show up in the data.  Jobs, jobs, jobs drives the Main Street economy.  The BLS data release today shows just how many jobs are being created by the ongoing policy of MAGAnomics.

(BLS) Unemployment rates were lower in July in 6 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

[…] Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 5 states in July 2019 and was essentially unchanged in 45 states and the District of Columbia.

[…] Nonfarm payroll employment increased in five states in July 2019. The largest job gains occurred in Texas (+35,200), Florida (+22,900), and Washington (+13,400). The largest percentage gains occurred in Utah (+0.7 percent), Idaho (+0.5 percent), and Washington (+0.4 percent).

(Source Data)

 

Wow, President Trump Crowd for New Hampshire Rally Easily Breaks Record with over 11,500 inside and 8,000 to 9,000 outside!


President Trump said the MAGA rally at the SNHU Arena in Manchester, New Hampshire, beat all venue records for crowd attendance.

The anti-Trump media nuts immediately went bananas trying to disprove it.  The funny things is, not only was President Trump correct – he underestimated the crowd.

According to the Manchester Fire Marshal there were over 11,500 people inside the arena (pictured above), and around 8,000 to 9,000 outside watching jumbo screens (pic below).  The total exceeds 20,000. The previous record was 11,300 for an Elton John concert.

‘The Trump people wanted the fire marshal to let more people in, and at some point they say no,’ the official said. But there were tons and tons more outside. It’s not like they couldn’t fill the place.’  (via Daily Mail)

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

https://www.pscp.tv/w/cCX70TFvTlFsTFJub1dwUXd8MWRSS1ptWWt2V0R4QgDdx6zsehz5dCy3Cuu-fvxk9tMe0HF2COWaRpuz_Ceu?t=16s 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Thank you New Hampshire. KEEP AMERICA GREAT! #KAG2020

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
55.5K people are talking about this

David Martosko

@dmartosko

So it turns out @realDonaldTrump was right about breaking Elton John’s attendance record in Manchester, NH. The fire marshal counted “11,500-plus,” breaking the record by at least 200. Marshal also estimated overflow crowd of “8,000-9,000” standing outside https://mol.im/a/7365155 

NH fire marshal: Trump DID smash Elton John’s arena attendance record

Manchester’s deputy fire marshal said Trump’s rally crowd Thursday night was ‘just over 11,500,’ and 8,000-9,000 more stood outside watching on TV. Elton John’s record had stood at 11,300.

dailymail.co.uk

2,327 people are talking about this

Politics to Support Wall Street Multinationals – Democrats Plan to Block Trump Trade Reset…


On Thursday June 20, 2019, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and democrat leadership.  After the political ideologues held the meeting, Trudeau and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled the Canadian ratification on the USMCA trade agreement.

It was obvious both groups of avowed leftists agreed to stall the USMCA for politics.

On August 13th White House emissary National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Britian’s Chancellor of Exchequer Sajid Javid, and the public became aware of efforts toward a six month post Brexit U.S-U.K trade agreement that would become effective on November 1st, 2019; immediately the day after Brexit was official.

On August 14th Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly rushed a press release saying the House would never support that interim U.S-U.K trade agreement, using cover story of worry about Ireland/Northern Ireland peace accord.  Beyond all the talking points the baseline reason for Pelosi’s opposition is Democrats do not support Brexit.  Both the immediacy and the construct of the counter-maneuver by Pelosi were noted. [House in recess].

Immediately after the deal between President Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson became public; an intense international media effort began to push a narrative of the “U.S. heading to a recession”.  The group of corporate financial media interests; those who advance the interests of Wall Street and are adamantly adverse to a global trade reset; and the political opposition to Donald Trump, began using a recession talking point in unison.

There is a clear, albeit complex, timeline of Trump’s trade strategy that is evident to those who are following closely.

The confrontation with China is one part; the removal of the back-doors into the US economy (NAFTA) is another part; a looming confrontation with the EU over their protectionist exploitation of one-way tariffs is yet another part.

The strategy to deal with each of the three primary negative trade elements (China, NAFTA, EU) is clear within President Trump’s trade reset.

  • Bilateral deals with ASEAN partner nations and simultaneous crushing tariffs on China deals with one problem.  China’s removal of U.S. wealth and jobs is halted.
  • The construct of the USMCA, and country of origin for source material and strict enforcement mechanisms, deals with the second problem: NAFTA’s fatal flaw.
  • An reciprocal and barrier removing agreement between the U.S. and U.K; which can open a tariff free trade highway between North America and Europe; creates the leverage for Trump (benefit for Johnson) that begins to deal with the EU problem.

In the big picture President Donald Trump has purposefully stalled the process of supply chain globalization and cheap labor evaluation.  Trump is resetting global manufacturing supply chains, with U.S. incentives for relocation.   This is bringing wealth and jobs back into the United States (and North America).

In essence Titan Trump is engaged in a process of: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration of wealth (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshall plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).

In all of these efforts U.S. multinational corporations, big companies on Wall St, are heavily opposed to President Trump because they have invested in those overseas operations.  Those companies facilitated the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs.

There is also now a clear alignment between those Wall Street multinationals, and democrats like Nancy Pelosi.   Wall Street’s ability to pay Pelosi and political leadership to protect their multinational interests; in combination with corporate promises of funding to Pelosi’s party; has created the unholy alliance of united interests.

That’s why Nancy Pelosi instructed Justin Trudeau to stall the Canadian ratification of the USMCA.  That’s the motive behind why Pelosi is working to stall, perhaps even eliminate, the USMCA ratification in the House.  This is also why Pelosi reacted so quickly to the framework of a deal between President Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

It is a political strategy and calculation for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to attempt to sink the U.S. Main Street economy.  Weakening Trump’s China confrontation; blocking the USMCA; and impeding a trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. are part of that calculation.

Prior to this week Hollywood was openly praying for a recession to weaken President Trump’s reelection efforts. However, this week we are now seeing Wall Street, and the media pundits therein, openly cheering for an economic recession for exactly the same purpose.

The aligned interests of Wall Street, media pundits and Democrats are all contingent upon harming the U.S. economy.  That is how severely ideological modern democrats are.

The democrats are willing to destroy Main Street in order to retain power.

There are trillions at stake.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.